Plunges Over 40% in 30 Days. Strategy Nears Year Low, Can It Hold $100 Level Amid Bitcoin Crash?

TradingKey - Bitcoin's breach of the $60,000 level has left MicroStrategy's stock price testing the $100 threshold, which it risks losing in the short term.

In pre-market trading on June 10, Eastern Time, Bitcoin proxy MicroStrategy ( MSTR) fell by approximately 2%, dropping below $150 and nearing its February lows. Over the past 30 days, MicroStrategy's stock has continuously declined from a high near $195, accumulating a 41% drop to date, while Bitcoin ( BTC) has only fallen 25% over the same period. Why is this the case?

MicroStrategy stock chart, Source: TradingView

MicroStrategy's decline has far exceeded that of Bitcoin over the same period for two main reasons: First, due to market panic, the "premium" MSTR previously held—at 1.5 to 2 times its Bitcoin Net Asset Value (NAV)—has rapidly contracted during the bearish turn, leading to a larger decline. Second, MicroStrategy sold over 1.4 million shares last week through an At-The-Market (ATM) offering, raising $181 million in net proceeds to increase its BTC holdings, which pressured the stock price while providing buying support for BTC.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the critical $60,000 level, which was also the low in February. While MicroStrategy has not yet touched its corresponding support at $104, MSTR investors are concerned it will break that support or even lose the $100 mark, leading to a deeper downward trend.

Bitcoin price chart, Source: TradingView

MSTR is currently in a "battle to defend the $100 psychological threshold." Whether it can stabilize in the future depends on two core anchors: (1) MSTR holds over 840,000 BTC, and its Digital Credit product (STRC) maintains low 3% volatility in the market; combined with $1 billion in cash reserves, this provides corporate solvency. (2) If Bitcoin cannot hold above $60,000 before the Fed's FOMC meeting, panic selling could push it toward $55,000, potentially dragging MSTR shares below the $100 level.

The $100 mark is a concentrated zone for psychological sentiment and derivatives positioning. If MicroStrategy loses this level, it could easily trigger a chain reaction of quantitative trading and margin liquidations. If it unfortunately fails, an earlier support zone sits around $70, which was the breakout point for MicroStrategy's stock at the start of this bull market, providing mid-to-long-term structural support.