McDonald’s Beat Q1 2026 Earnings Despite a Tough Consumer - Is MCD Stock a Buy at $284?

Things were smoother this quarter than the actual stock price suggested . Revenue of $6.52 billion - an increase of 9% year-over-year - and a figure that topped off the estimate by roughly $50 million . System-wide sales came in at a tidy $34 billion for the quarter, up 11% or 6% when you strip out currency changes - so we see the strength of the company. Operating income leaps 12% with some seriously healthy profit margins out of the franchisees. US sales were up 3.9% - the fourth time in a row the numbers have been positive - and it's mostly thanks to a bit of extra cash from value meal bundles and the Big Mac - rather than seeing bounce back in foot traffic. Internationals did a little better with 3.9% and 3.4% sales growth out of operated and developmental markets respectively - and they all pulled in the numbers.

The thing holding investors back is Q2. CEO Chris Kempczinski described the world as "pretty tough " and they're forecasting a decent slowdown in sales for the next quarter, citing all the problems lower income households are facing with fuel and grocery costs on the up. That little caveat held the stock back from getting too excited about the earnings beat. The next half looks a bit brighter thanks to some promotional goodies like new snacks and back-to-school deals - but the immediate future isn't looking quite as rosy as Q1. They did reiterate their long term target of 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027 though, so all that expansion is still very much on the cards - even if the near-term sales picture does look a bit wobbly.

MCD technical analysis - falling wedge support at $282 shows a glimmer of hope with some positive signs

On the 4 hour chart, MCD has been forming a falling wedge since that March high near $312 - a very repetitive pattern with the price narrowing in toward the tip of the wedge. Then just recently we saw a bullish hammer form at the 0.236 fibonacci support zone, round about $283.70 . this has the price rejecting a move down towards that $282.28 line where there is a big cluster of support lines just sitting there. The momentum indicator - that RSI like thingy - is hovering around the 36 to 41 range but that's a interesting thing. the price made a lower low but the momentum just kept on truckin - that's not a bad sign at all, especially when you see that as a classic early reversal signal.

Source: NASDAQ MCD

Over the top of all this stuff we have some overhead resistance at $288.63 - and to be honest that's a pretty big obstacle - and then there is another one to go through at $292 to $295 where the blue moving average and some prior rejection candles from the orange circles are basically right on top of each other. If MCD were to break out of that falling wedge up above $285.50 then I reckon we could be looking at a first stop at $289 and then maybe some other more ambitious targets at $292 and $295.

Trade Setup 

Entry: Get in long on a close above $285.50 - that's just the confirmation we need to say the wedge has broken

Target 1: $289.29 - the first major resistance to break in the wedge/

Target 2: $292-$295 - where the blue moving average comes across the price and some other stuff from the past that was previously a big resistance zone

Stop loss: If we see the daily close go below $282.28 - then that's the time to get out - the wedge support is gone

Yes ! McDonald’s came out with Q1 2026 adjusted EPS at $2.83 which was higher than the anticipated $2.75 , and raked in $6.52 billion in revenue, an impressive 9% year-over-year increase. The company saw global comparable sales bounce back to a 3.8% gain, with US sales up 3.9%. But what really drove the beat was the success of value meal deals and higher margins from their franchised restaurants, rather than any increase in foot traffic.

Management just came out and said that they expect a significant slowdown in Q2 comparable sales, essentially warning us to expect some tough times ahead for lower-income consumers who are being squeezed by rising fuel and grocery prices. They're predicting that the second half of 2026 is going to be better, thanks to some promotional catalysts kicking in but for the next quarter or so, expect softer demand than what we saw in Q1.

Technically, the setup looks pretty good, with MCD sitting right on the falling wedge support line at $283.70 and starting to show some positive RSI divergence. If the stock can break above $285.50, it's looking at $289.29 & $292- $295. Of course, we do have to worry about a weak Q2 sales print, and if the stock closes below that $282.28 support line, it could be a big failure.

McDonald’s Q1 2026 came through with an earnings beat in a pretty tough environment - a 9% revenue increase, $2.83 EPS and a 3.8% global comp really show that their value strategy is working. The Q2 deceleration warning is real, but as long as you've got a solid franchise model and digital flywheel, you can still make decent money even if foot traffic is soft. At $284, MCD is sitting on that falling wedge support and got some positive divergence going on. The risk is that Q2 traffic data shows that the lower-income pressure is going to be a lot more persistent than they think it'll be — so keep a close eye on the next comparable sales print.