公園酒店及度假村 (PK) 2026年第三季財報電話會議：RevPAR成長8.4%，調升財測指引

重點摘要

• Park Hotels & Resorts (NYSE: PK) 公布 2026 年第三季 RevPAR 為 201 美元，年增 8.4%，主要受惠於平均每日房價 (ADR) 成長 5% 以及住房率上升 2.4 個百分點。
• 經調整 EBITDA 為 1.35 億美元，經調整每股營運資金 (FFO) 成長超過 11% 至 0.39 美元。飯店經調整 EBITDA 成長 8%，利潤率擴增 50 個基點。
• 團體客房營收成長超過 18%，散客營收成長逾 5%。機場與郊區飯店的 RevPAR 分別成長約 20% 與 14%。
• Park 調升 2026 全年 RevPAR 成長預估至 5.5%-6.0%，經調整 EBITDA 財測調升至 6.35 億至 6.45 億美元，經調整每股 FFO 財測則調升至 2.00-2.05 美元。
• 管理階層指出 Royal Palm South Beach、夏威夷資產組合與 Bonnet Creek 為 2027 年的主要成長動能。已預訂的 2027 年團體營收進度較去年同期領先近 6%。
• 截至季底淨負債約為 37 億美元。Park 延長了債務到期期限，目前在 2028 年第四季之前均無重大債務到期。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

儘管遭遇三場颶風，夏威夷 RevPAR 仍成長 7%；管理階層估計颶風使合計 RevPAR 成長減少近 280 個基點。夏威夷兩家度假村 9 月的 RevPAR 成長近 14%，其中團體客房營收增加逾一倍，宴會與餐飲營收則成長 110%。

Hilton Hawaiian Village 的 RevPAR 成長 5%，住房率接近 90%。其 RevPAR 指數達到 105%，較去年同期高出 4 個百分點。Park 於 8 月展開對擁有 348 間客房之 Alii Tower 耗資 1 億美元的翻新工程，預計於 2027 年初完工。

奧蘭多 RevPAR 成長超過 5%，由 Bonnet Creek 領軍。該綜合度假區的散客營收成長近 19%。管理階層預期 Bonnet Creek 2026 年 EBITDA 將超過 1.08 億美元，相較之下，在 Park 展開投資計畫前約為 6,000 萬美元。

城市飯店組合受惠於華盛頓特區、芝加哥與波士頓。在住房率提升 9 個百分點及 ADR 成長 16% 的帶動下，Park 位於華盛頓地區兩家飯店的 RevPAR 成長近 33%。芝加哥 RevPAR 上漲超過 15%，波士頓則成長約 13%。

歷經耗資約 1.1 億美元的翻新後，Royal Palm South Beach 於 7 月底重新開業。第三季 ADR 約為 244 美元，年增近 60 美元，較 2024 年同期水準高出超過 30%。9 月 ADR 達到 274 美元。

截至季底，Royal Palm 已預訂約 390 萬美元的 2027 年團體營收。第三季期間，該飯店以 461 美元的 ADR 預訂了超過 8,000 個未來的團體間夜數，相當於約 370 萬美元的客房營收。宴會與餐飲預訂額達到近 170 萬美元，而 2024 年同期則不足 20 萬美元。

Park 亦完成以 1,900 萬美元出售芝加哥擁有 520 間客房的 Drake 飯店。自推行非核心策略以來，該公司已出售或處置最初鎖定的 19 家飯店中的 11 家，獲得約 2.2 億美元的總收益，平均交易倍數超過 EBITDA 的 16 倍。

管理階層財測

10 月初步 RevPAR 成長近 11%，其中包括邁阿密貢獻的 120 個基點，以及 Bonnet Creek、Key West 與華盛頓特區的雙位數增長。

針對 2027 年，管理階層預期 Royal Palm 的 EBITDA 至少將重返翻新前約 1,400 萬美元的水準。該公司持續以 2028 年達到約 2,800 萬美元的穩定飯店經調整 EBITDA 為目標，相較之下 2026 年預期約為 300 萬美元。管理階層表示，光是 Royal Palm 即可為 2027 年整體投資組合的 RevPAR 成長貢獻約 200 個基點。

管理階層預期 2027 年的年度資本支出將降至約 1.75 億至 1.85 億美元的更正常化區間，其中包括自 2026 年專案遞延的部分支出。

風險與關注事項

Park 指出地緣政治與總體經濟不確定性依然存在，但管理階層表示目前美國商業活動與消費者需求仍具韌性。

氣候仍是營運風險之一，夏威夷地區尤為顯著。三場颶風估計使第三季夏威夷的 RevPAR 成長減少 280 個基點，並導致純客房團體訂房增加，進而限制了客房以外的消費。

第三季費用增加 5%。Royal Palm 重新開業為費用成長增加約 85 個基點，水電瓦斯等公用事業費用則使每間入住客房成本成長增加約 80 個基點。管理階層預期在基期正常化前，Royal Palm 將在 2027 年上半年使費用增加約 100 個基點。

近期的再融資以利率約 6% 至 6% 出頭的債務，取代了約 15 億美元利率在 4% 出頭的債務。管理階層估計每年的利息費用逆風約為 3,000 萬美元，但隨著槓桿率下降，定期貸款利差可望縮小，進而部分抵銷該影響。

國際入境旅遊人數維持在 2019 年水準的約 87%，日本赴夏威夷的旅遊人數亦低於以往水準。管理階層表示，國際需求復甦將有助於夏威夷資產組合。

分析師問答精華

• 夏威夷獲利復甦：管理階層並未提供 Hilton Hawaiian Village 達到 2 億美元 EBITDA 的時間表。管理階層表示，隨著翻新工程完工及市占率回升，夏威夷資產組合在未來數年有望弭平相較於 2023 年高峰約 6,000 萬美元的 EBITDA 差距。
• Royal Palm 營運攀升：Park 預估第四季住房率約在 60% 上下。管理階層目前優先著重於提高房價，而非立即回到翻新前的住房率水準。客房、公共空間及多數餐飲場所均已正常營運。
• 2027 年團體需求：團體營收進度領先近 6%，管理階層指出 Hilton Hawaiian Village 成長約 12%、Bonnet Creek 成長 10%、Key West 成長 22%，紐奧良則成長 7% 至 8%。由於先前暫停營業進行翻新，Royal Palm 的增長進度更為強勁。
• 非核心資產出售：目前仍有 8 項鎖定的非核心資產，相當於約 5,000 萬美元的 EBITDA。其中 3 項涉及 Safehold 爭端，目前並未對外求售。其餘 5 項相當於約 3,400 萬美元的 EBITDA，其中包括來自 Lake Buena Vista 的約 2,000 萬美元，Park 可能會予以保留並進行翻新。
• RevPAR 與總營收比較：管理階層預期第四季總 RevPAR 成長率將較第三季更貼近客房 RevPAR 成長率，可能落在 5.5% 至 7.5% RevPAR 財測區間的下緣。第三季業績受到純客房團體訂房增加以及宴會餐飲貢獻較疲弱的影響。
• 2027 年策略布局：管理階層強調，Royal Palm 翻新後的首個完整營運年、夏威夷的復甦、Bonnet Creek 市占率進一步提升、新飯店供給有限，以及近 6% 的團體營收進度，均為關鍵的潛在成長動能。

法說會完整逐字稿

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Park Hotels and Resorts Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. This time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow a formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Ian Weissman, Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you, Operator, and welcome everyone to the Park Hotels and Resorts Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered forward-looking statements under Federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we're not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. Actual performance, outcomes, and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Please refer to the documents filed by Park with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information, such as adjusted FFO and adjusted EBITDA. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in yesterday's earnings call, as well in our 8K filed with the SEC, and the supplemental financial information available on our website at pkhotelsandresorts.com.

Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all operating results will be presented on a comparable hotel basis. This morning, Tom Baltimore, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an update on our strategic initiatives and review Park's third quarter performance and outlook for the year. Sean Delorto, our Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer will provide updates on our capital investments and additional color on guidance. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Tom.

Thomas Baltimore

Thank you, Ian, and welcome everyone. I'm pleased to report that PARCC delivered another outstanding quarter with results meaningfully exceeding our expectations. RevPAR increased 8.4% year over year, with growth accelerating from 9% in July to more than 13% in September, despite weather-related disruptions in Hawaii during August and September. Results reflected broad-based strength across the portfolio, by continued momentum in group, leisure, and higher rated business transient demand. RevPAR increased nearly 7% across both our resort and urban hotels, while our airport and suburban hotels grew approximately 20% and 14% respectively. Turning to our major markets, Hawaii continues to be one of the most compelling growth opportunities in our portfolio. RevPAR across our two resorts increased an impressive 7% despite the temporary disruption from three hurricanes, which we estimate reduced combined RevPAR growth for the two resorts by nearly 280 basis points during the quarter.

Demand rebounded as conditions improved, with September representing the strongest month of the quarter and RevPAR across our Hawaii resorts increased nearly 14%. Group was the primary driver of performance at both hotels in the third quarter, with group rooms revenue more than doubling year over year. which helped to drive a 110% increase in banquet and catering revenue. At Hilton Hawaiian Village, REVPAR increased 5 percent during the quarter, with occupancy reaching nearly 90 percent, allowing for compression to drive stronger rates, particularly in September, when average daily rate increased approximately 9% compared to last year. The resort also continued to gain market share, achieving a RevPAR index of 105% for the quarter, up four points from last year with gains across both occupancy and rate. Importantly, the index remains nearly 14 points below its The resort's renovated outlets and enhanced programming also help drive record third-quarter food and beverage performance, with banquet and catering and outlet revenue each growing 14% year-over-year. Orlando also delivered another strong quarter, with Revpar increasing more than 5% led by continued outperformance at Bonnet Creek. The complex delivered another record-breaking quarter, generating its highest third quarter revenue ever.

Transient revenue increased nearly 19% year-over-year, supported by premium-rated luxury demand at the Waldorf. Further underscoring the exceptional quality of these properties, Signia by Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek and Waldorf Astoria Orlando were recently ranked the number two and number three resorts in Orlando, respectively, in Condé Nast Travelers' 2026 Reader's Choice Awards. Bonnet Creek's continued strength following our significant investment demonstrates how targeted capital can elevate an asset, strengthen its competitive positioning, and drive sustained earnings growth. EBITDA of the complex has grown from approximately 60 million to a level we expect to exceed 108 million this year. and we believe there is further upside as the complex continues to gain market share. Urban portfolio was another important source of strength led by Washington DC, Chicago, and Boston. Across our two DC Metro hotels, Revpar increased by nearly 33% year-over-year. supported by a nine-point increase in occupancy and ADR growth of 16%. Group room nights increased 139%, creating meaningful compression and supporting transient ADR growth of more than 17%.

At our Hilton Chicago hotel, Revpar increased more than 15%, benefiting from a particularly strong citywide and event calendar and excellent transient pricing. Boston also delivered strong results, with portfolio rev par increasing approximately 13%, supported by meaningful ADR growth, citywide demand and high occupancy. Finally, we are very excited about the early progress at Royal Palm South Beach following following its approximately $110 million transformational renovation. The hotel welcomed its first guest in late July, making the third quarter very much a ramp-up period. Even at this early stage, rate performance has been very encouraging, with third quarter ADR of approximately 244, up nearly 60, and more than 30% above the comparable period in 2024, with September increasing to 274. $64 were over 40% better than pre-renovation results. The team has also been focused on building awareness of the reimagined hotel, hosting leading travel media, Marriott sales leaders from around the world, and key industry groups while benefiting from broad support from Marriott and our operating partners. Looking ahead, the demand backdrop is encouraging with eight citywide events scheduled for Miami Beach in the fourth quarter. expected to generate approximately 56,000 room nights, up 70% compared to last year.

We are also seeing strong early validation of the hotels repositioning across both group and food and beverage. At the end of the third quarter, 2027 group revenue on the books totaled approximately 3.9 million. already matching the comparable pace for 2024, the hotel's best year. with an average daily rate that is $136 higher or up nearly 40%. During the third quarter alone, the hotel booked more than 8,000 future group room nights at $461 average daily rate, representing approximately 3.7 million of rooms revenue, more than triple the amount booked during the same period in 2024. Banquet and catering has also been particularly strong, booking nearly 1.7 million during the third quarter versus less than 200,000 booked during the same period in 2024. Together, these early results demonstrate the opportunity to drive significantly higher rates and meaningfully higher total revenue across the property. These results also reinforce our confidence that Royal Palm will become a meaningful contributor parks earnings growth over the next couple of years. On the capital allocation front, continue to make meaningful progress executing on our non-core disposition strategy.

In October, we completed the sale of the Drake, a 520 room hotel in Chicago for approximately $19 million. The hotel was expected to generate an operating loss of approximately 1.3 million in 2026. with a forecasted loss of approximately 1.3 million in the fourth quarter. making the sale immediately accretive to earnings while further enhancing the quality of our portfolio. Our remaining non-core hotels now represent 3% to 4% of total portfolio value, and we remain committed to further reducing that exposure by year-end with active work streams on a number of assets underway. We are extremely pleased with our progress since launching the strategy late last year. Of the 19 hotels originally identified as non-core, we have sold or otherwise disposed of 11 hotels, generating approximately 220 million in gross proceeds and an average multiple of more than 16 times EBITDA. These transactions have reduced our exposure to lower growth assets and enabled us to focus our capital and resources on our highest quality hotels and markets. The result is a higher quality portfolio with stronger margins. a better growth profile, and greater long-term earnings potential.

We believe this transformation has positioned Park to deliver sustained earnings growth and create long-term shareholder value. As we look at the balance of the year and into 2027, We remain encouraged by the strength across our portfolio. Despite continued geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, the US economy and consumer remain resilient, healthy business activity and investment, including significant spending related to AI, would continue to support lodging demand, while historically low levels of new hotel supply provide a favorable backdrop for continued pricing power. Against this backdrop, we expect to finish the year strong and enter 2027 with considerable momentum. Our group revenue pace is up nearly 6%, and we have several distinct growth drivers, including our recently completed capital investments, which are expected to provide meaningful embedded earnings growth. In Miami, 2027 will mark its first full year of operations at the transformed Royal Palm South Beach Early performance continues to reinforce our high confidence in the hotel's ramp toward approximately 28 million of stabilized hotel-adjusted EBITDA by 2028, compared with approximately 3 million expected this year. For 2027, we currently expect earnings to at least return to pre-renovation levels of approximately 14 million of EBITDA, with Royal Palm alone expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points to total portfolio REVPAR growth.

Hawaii represents another substantial opportunity. With the Alihi Tower renovation expected to be completed in early 2027, we will We will have invested approximately 350 million to strengthen the competitive positioning of our two resorts. With the major renovation activity behind us, solid group pace already on the books, and significant upside from recovering market share, we believe our Hawaii portfolio is well positioned to continue closing the approximately $60 million EBITDA gap to its 2023 target. peak earnings over the next few years. As a result, I believe Park is uniquely positioned to deliver outsized earnings growth over the next several years, We have strengthened the portfolio through disciplined capital allocation and active capital recycling, invested substantially in our highest return opportunities, and enhanced our financial flexibility through proactive balance sheet management. are now positioned to realize the earnings benefit of that work, creating a compelling path to higher EBITDA and meaningful long-term value creation for our shareholders. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Sean.

Sean Dell'Orto

Thanks, Tom. Overall, we were very pleased with our third quarter results, which once again exceeded expectations, with RevPAR increasing 8.4% to $201 and hotel-adjusted EBITDA increasing 8% year-over-year, with hotel-adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 50 basis points to 20. 5.7%. Adjusted EBITDA was $135 million for the quarter, while adjusted FFO per share was 39 cents, an increase of over 11%. We were also pleased to see broad-based strength across the portfolio. Group rooms revenue increased more than 18%, while transient revenue grew over 5%, reflecting healthy demand across multiple customer segments. RevPAR growth was also well-balanced, with occupancy increasing 2.4 percentage points and ADR up 5%. Expenses increased 5% during the quarter, compared with just under 4% in the first half of the year. with the reopening of the Royal Palm adding roughly 85 basis points of operating expense growth versus prior year. Excluding Royal Palm, cost per occupied room increased 3.7% in the quarter, including an approximately 80 basis point impact from increased utility cost pressures, which, combined with higher occupancy and along with revenue-based variable costs, drove the expense growth for the quarter, but partially offset by a reduction in the cost per occupied room. reduction in fixed costs, mostly due to lower property insurance premiums from our annual policy renewal this past June.

Turning to capital investments, during the third quarter we invested a total of $57 million in capital improvements, with full-year CapEx expected to range between $270 million to $280 million. In Hawaii, we commenced a comprehensive renovation of the 348-room Alii Tower at Hilton Hawaiian Village in August, a $100 million project that includes a complete renovation of all guest rooms, plus the addition of three guest rooms within the premium oceanfront tower. and enhancements to food and beverage outlets, including the Tropics Bar and Grill and the Poolside Outlet Mix Bar, all of which are expected to be completed early next year. Upon completion, 80% of the guest rooms across the nearly 3,000-room resort will have been fully renovated. And finally, in New Orleans, we commenced the third and final phase of the main tower guest room renovation in May. encompassing the remaining 489 guest rooms, and expect the project to be completed by mid-November. Upon completion, all 1,600-plus guest rooms will have been fully renovated, significantly enhancing the quality and competitiveness of one of our most important convention-oriented assets. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with net debt of approximately $3.7 billion, translating to a trailing 12-month net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of just under six times, a reduction of two-tenths of a turn since the beginning of the year. Liquidity was $1.3 billion, including $295 million in cash and $1 billion of available capacity under our revolver.

In September, we fully repaid the 1.275 billion CMBS loan secured by the Hilton Hawaiian Village Resort. the remaining $600 million of capacity under our Delayed Draw Term Loan, together with proceeds from the $700 million Delayed Draw Mortgage Loan secured by the Bonnet Creek Complex. This transaction meaningfully extended our debt maturities by roughly one and a half years, and we now have no significant maturities until Q4 of 2028. We also finalized terms on a $205 million refinancing of the Hilton Santa Barbara Resort, which will be used to repay the existing $150 million mortgage maturing in December. provide for future funding advances towards the property's comprehensive renovation currently planned for late 2028. We expect to close this refinancing by the end of this month. With respect to our dividend, on October 15th, we paid our third quarter cash dividend of 25 cents per share. And on October 29th, the Board approved a fourth quarter cash dividend of 25 cents per share to be paid on January 15th to stockholders of record as of December 31st. The dividend currently translates to an annualized yield of 10.5%. of approximately 6% based on recent trading levels.

Turning to guidance, following another stronger than expected quarter, we are increasing both our REVPAR and earnings guidance ranges to reflect our third quarter results and our updated expectations for the fourth quarter. Accordingly, we are raising our full-year REVPAR outlook by 200 basis points at the midpoint to a new range of 5.5% to 6%, which implies a fourth quarter growth rate between 5.5% to 7.5%. This updated outlook reflects the nearly 400 basis points of outperformance delivered during the third quarter, as well as stronger than anticipated results at the start of the fourth quarter, with preliminary October RevPAR increasing nearly 11%. percent, driven by a 120 basis point lift from Miami, coupled with double-digit gains at Bonnet Creek, Key West, and Washington, D.C. From an earnings perspective, we are increasing adjusted EBITDA guidance by approximately $13 million at the midpoint to a new range of $635 million to $645 million, while adjusted FFO guidance increases by approximately $0.08 per share at the midpoint to a new range of $2 to $2.05 per share. This increase to guidance also reflects an assumed annual increase in expenses of approximately 4.5% year-over-year and 5.5% to 6.5% for the fourth quarter, with an approximate 150 basis point impact from the reopening of Royal Palm. expenses are being driven by the stronger demand environment and higher occupancy expectations across the portfolio, driving increases in variable costs such as labor and utilities. In addition, with respect to Royal Palm, we expect fourth quarter hotel adjusted EBITDA at the property to be approximately $4 million, with full year EBITDA of approximately $3 million. We very much look forward to welcoming many of you to the property next week when we host an investor tour and showcase the exceptional transformation firsthand.

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line for Q&A. To address each of your questions, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Operator, may we have the first question, please?.

Operator

Thank you. Our first question is from Floris Van Dykem with Ladenburg Thalmann. Hey, guys. Thanks. Look forward to seeing your.

分析師問答

Floris Gerbrand Van Dijkum

Miami Beach asset next week with you guys. Just wanted to talk about Hawaiian Village, which is the most valuable hotel, I believe, in the world. You've invested 350 million in that. Presumably, you're going to get your 15% stabilized returns on that. In your view, when can we expect that that asset could get to 200 million of EBITDA? Obviously, not forecasting for next year. because the latest renovation won't be finished or fully stabilized yet. But you should see some pretty heady growth in Hawaii based on the capital you spent plus the markets recovering. Maybe if you can walk us through some of that, please.

Unknown Speaker

First of all, Floris, thank you for the question and thank you for taking time and look forward to seeing you and many others next week. I think if you step back and just think about Hawaii, really over the last 20 years or more, Oahu in particular has really outpaced the U.S., by about 120 basis points. So I think you really start with that embedded tailwind. If you look at Hawaii, I think their RevPAR CAGR has been about 4.5% versus about 3.3% for the broader U.S. So I certainly think that that's going to be a real benefit to us as we look to the future. The other thing which not only applies to Hawaii, but even broader, really limited supply growth through 2030. near impossible to add new supply in Hawaii. And having two iconic resorts there, particularly Hilton Hawaiian Village, we We are really excited, and as Sean noted in his remarks, completing Waikiki we will have north of 80% of really the core rooms renovated, we certainly think that's going to continue to be a real tailwind for us.

If you think about HHV, I mean, we are running an index, RevPAR index of about 105%. So when we get a LIHI done, as we sort of look out, we would certainly expect here in the next couple of years that we have bridged that gap that we talk about that recapturing that 60 million plus or minus in EBITDA in Hawaii that really gets us back to the 2023 peak levels. So, very encouraged. If you think about the success that we've had with our transformational renovations, whether it's Bonnet Creek or Key West, and I certainly put Royal Palm in that category that we're very, very confident and very, very optimistic. We certainly think that Hawaii is going to continue that track record, and we're really excited about the future. at both assets and particularly Hilton Hawaiian Village.

Floris Gerbrand Van Dijkum

Thanks, Tom. Maybe a follow-up. that people don't or tend to forget about, but ancillary revenue is obviously obviously a big driver of trying to maximize value at each of your assets. I think the investors are probably somewhat familiar and certainly travelers with resort fees as well as paid parking. And presumably, I don't know if there's an asset in your portfolio that does not have resort fees today, but maybe talk about some of the other things that you can do to drive revenue and EBITDA at hotels, including things like billboards, etc.

Unknown Speaker

Yes. Listen, we are, as you can imagine, Flores, looking all... All issues are on the table to drive incremental revenue. You captured many of them, clearly resort fees. Keep in mind we've got 150,000 square feet of retail space there, provides incremental. We've got incremental parking there, etc. At any one time, you've probably got 15,000 people. timeshare rooms. So all of that provides for a unique experience, but it also provides for really broad sources of revenue for us at the Hawaiian Village.

And to your earlier comment, it's also owned all fee simple. There are many ground leases in Hawaii for both of our properties. They're fee simple with huge optionality that gives us tremendous confidence, not only in the interim, but certainly over the long term in terms of the great upside that we have at those assets.

Operator

Our next question is from Dwayne Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Yes, hi, this is Peter. I'm for Dwayne. Thanks for taking the question. Just on Miami for the $4 million EBITDA outlook in the fourth quarter. If you can share just what level of occupancy is assumed within that outlook and remind us is the hotel 100% open? across all the amenities and outlets and just love to hear any, you know, highlights that you can share now that it's up and running.

Sean Dell'Orto

Yes, sure, this is Sean, I'll take that. I mean, things are Q4, I would say Royal Palm is probably going to be somewhere in that, you know, kind of critical 60% occupancy, plus or minus, set up for Q4. Certainly trailing what it did in 2024 from an occupancy standpoint, but we certainly, our thesis is to not necessarily drive as much occupancy as we did, and more so driving the rate. So we'll certainly see better rate performance projected for Q4 relative to 24, lower occupancy, you know, getting pretty close to what we would have achieved from the bottom line in 24, so pre-renovation. So feel good about that. From an overall operations standpoint, everything's open. We did have a third-party leased restaurant that we'll be working to bring online. over the coming months, but for the most part, the outlets that we've baked in into our underwriting and obviously all rooms are all open and operational. Got you uh and then just quickly oh go ahead Tom.

Unknown Speaker

No, I was just going to build on Sean's point. On the renovation, all guest rooms, all public space, reimagined lobby, barbershop. breezeway pool four food and beverage outlets upgraded meeting space all of that is done and most importantly and you know those of you that are with us next week we'll see really integrating three separate buildings so that they look and feel as one just we could not be prouder and Conde Nast obviously did a recent feature that perhaps many of you have seen, and I think it really speaks to the quality of design work and the finishes, and we're terribly excited about it. We're incredibly excited about it and can't wait to show it next week and can't wait, most importantly, for its performance in the coming months and years.

Duane Pfennigwerth

Got it. Appreciate the color. One quick follow-up on the 11% rev par growth in October. What level of total revs did you see for the month, and what do you kind of expect between the balance between rev par growth and trev par growth in 4Q? Thanks for taking the questions.

Sean Dell'Orto

I would say for the quarter specifically, we'd expect to see TREV PAR be a little more in line with REV PAR, certainly more in line than what we saw for Q3. So if you think about our implied guidance range of the quarter for REV PAR, kind of five and a half to seven and a half. seven and a half, I would certainly see that we would expect total rev par, trev par kind of being, maybe it's more towards the lower end of that range, but certainly kind of closer to rev par.

Operator

Our next question is from Smeeds Rose with Citi. Hi. Thanks. Bye.

Bennett Rose

I wanted to ask you a little more about the group booking pace that you mentioned for 27. It looks like very healthy plus 6%. And I was just curious if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing maybe on the composition of that in terms of corporate versus larger maybe association type business or anything you can just share in terms of the patterns you're seeing.

Unknown Speaker

Well, as we mentioned, approximately 6%, obviously that's largely core, which again is about 97% of the value and I think represents also EBITDA for the portfolio. Hilton Hawaiian Village obviously is coming back on and still ramping up and lapping favorable comps there. Think up about 12%. Bonnet Creek, as you know, has been a tremendous success for us. We're looking at probably another 10% in group pace for next year. Obviously, Miami. A very high number, 900% effectively because it was closed the last 15 months, but it's going to be significant. Key West, looking at about 22%, Casa in particular up about 25%. Chicago around 8%, New Orleans in that 7% to 8% range, San Francisco, New Orleans, New 10%.

So broad-based. We do have a good city-wide calendar as well that I certainly think is going to benefit as we sort of look out and create some compression. So we So it's set up, I think, for a very strong group year. And obviously coming on as we finish 2026, up about 6% is what we expect to finish the year. Obviously at 18% in third quarter, slightly negative in fourth quarter, but really making up with that with really strong trends.

Bennett Rose

Fancy and as we look out, Smits. Thanks. I appreciate that. I wanted to ask you just one question. question on the New York Hilton during the third quarter. I'm just curious, I mean, it looks like the, you know, EBITDA declined pretty significantly with some margin compression there. I was just wondering if you could talk about, was it just ascribed to maybe the way that the booking patterns worked over the quarter, or is that to do with the higher expenses at the property level? Or maybe just talk about what's going on there.

Sean Dell'Orto

Yes, I would say no. I think we kind of generally contemplated for Q3, and I wouldn't say it holds. We have one kind of big group that kind of has come through in a repeating group in Q3. that it ultimately didn't spend as much kind of outside the room. So I don't necessarily think it's kind of a pattern in any sense. It's probably a little bit of an anomaly, but in the end, I think that's kind of contributing more. Kind of a common theme across the quarter in a way is in terms of Trevpar being less than Revpar in terms of growth. Still solid, still some good growth, but in the end, I think where New York's concerned, I think just kind of didn't have the and B, kind of out-of-room production to kind of offset some of the cost structure that quarter.

James Feldman

Our next question is from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. Hi, thank you. This is Connor on with Jamie. Maybe on New Orleans with the last. Hi, thank you. Thank you for taking my question. New Orleans with the last phase of rooms wrapping up this quarter. How should we think about 4Q displacement and then the ramp in 2027? And any color on the citywide calendar, how it looks there next year?.

Unknown Speaker

Yes, one, we're really excited to bring those. This is the last phase of the main tower. There are about 489 rooms scheduled to return to service. believe on the 13th of November plus or minus as we think about In 2027, we're very encouraged. Group pace up about 6.5% plus or minus. And citywides are, I think, 26 events and a little over 500,000 events. Room nights expected. So a solid year in New Orleans. Very, very encouraged. Obviously, it's... tough Q3 but a lot of that has to do lack of citywides in the city and also for us in particular we obviously have been under renovation so certainly impact there Q4. looking probably low single digits, 1%, 2% rev par as we sort of look out. transient revenue growing some, so $a couple million there.

But we, in terms of disruption, don't think it's going to be significant as we look out in Q4.

James Feldman

Thank you. I really appreciate the color. And maybe a separate follow-up. Group rooms revenue was over around 18%, but F&B kind of only up around two with banquet flat. Should we think of that as seasonality or mostly mix? And for 2027 group on the book, how should we think about out of room spend versus this year?.

Sean Dell'Orto

Yes, I would say Q3 is not necessarily the norm here. What we had in Q3, and again, as expected, was a few kind of room-only blocks that were, you know, pretty sizable. And so I think that kind of ultimately helped drive, you know, the good group pace and group production in the quarter. It didn't translate, obviously, to higher banquet and catering, since obviously that wasn't linked to the block. So I think it's just kind of – I don't think these are kind of repeating elements either for next year. So I think it's going to be more – I think more return to normal. And as you think about the banquet and catering production from –.

Operator

from a group standpoint going forward. Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Hurst with J.P. Morgan.

Michael Bellisario

Hi, and thank you for taking my question. With five non-core hotels left to sell, could you speak to the current state of the transaction market and timing, pricing, and how is buyer financing shaping up for the remaining sales?.

Unknown Speaker

Well, first of all, I couldn't be prouder of the team and how hard we've worked. If you step back and just remind listeners, we have sold or disposed of 56 assets and suspend now for about $3.1, $3.2 billion, including the $3.2 billion. including 14 international. So we've seen a little bit of everything. There are eight remaining assets, as you pointed out, EBITDA of about 50 million. Three of those are in this safehold portfolio as part of our dispute with them. So obviously those are not being marketed at this time. That's about 16 million of EBITDA.

The remaining five assets are about 34 million of EBITDA. And one of those, Lake Buena Vista in Orlando, is about 20 million. 20 million of that, so you really got four assets that have about 14 million. These are small assets, small contributors. All of them are complicated like many of the others. tax, legal, some joint venture. So we're working through, we've got work streams underway. We've dealt with this for many years we've made significant progress the remaining assets with the exception of Lake Bonavista candidly are insignificant in terms of their contribution to overall EBITDA We are evaluating, just given the strength of Orlando, does it make sense for us to fold that back in and renovate that, given the extraordinary success that we have with Bonnet Creek. Remaining the other four assets all have work streams.

Many of them are at various stages of that. And we're confident that we will make significant progress before year end. and could spill a little bit into early 27, but we expect to have that really behind us in the very near future.

Michael Bellisario

YOU KNOW, JUST KEEP FOLLOWING. GOOD DAY. GOOD DAY. GOOD DAY. THANK YOU FOR MY FOLLOW-UP. THANK YOU FOR MY FOLLOW-UP. THANK YOU FOR MY FOLLOW-UP. I APPRECIATE THIS EARLY, BUT HOW I APPRECIATE THIS EARLY, BUT HOW I APPRECIATE THIS EARLY, BUT HOW SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT CAPEX IN SHOULD WE THINK ABOUT CAPEX IN.

Sean Dell'Orto

Yes, we're certainly in a position where we're bringing that CapEx number down. Clearly this year with Royal Palm finishing up and bringing a Lee, Brittany Lee Tower project, which as we mentioned is $100 million. some kind of day two work on Royal Palm, went back and kind of did a few other things. So, added a little scope there and also kind of as we started with the Lee, I think a little bit of scope addition there and ultimately some timing of bringing, you know, starting on some projects for 27 that are identified for 27 earlier to kind of get the ball rolling as we head into 27. So there's a little bit of timing, a little bit of scope for some of the big projects there that kind of resulted in the the increase in the guidance range. But I would say going forward into next year, we're kind of bringing the annual spend down to a more normalized level of call it 185 million or so, plus or minus 175, 185 million. So that's ultimately, so you'll see that kind of, we'll have a little bit of carrying in and layering over from 26 into 27 as we go through, but ultimately getting down to that.

Operator

you know, that more normalized approach going forward. Our next question is from Rich Hightower with Barclays.

Richard Hightower

Good morning, guys. Just one story. Morning, Rich. I've covered a lot. Hey, Tom, how are you? Good. I WAS WONDERING, I KNOW YOU QUANTIFIED THE INTEREST EXPENSE HEADWIND WITHIN THE 26 GUIDANCE, BUT AS I THINK ABOUT THE 27, you know, you've got 1.7 billion floating rate. Obviously we've had a lot of refinancing activity. What does that kind of year on year headwind look like for 27 as we think about modeling?.

Sean Dell'Orto

Yes, I think the easiest way, Rich, looking at it is we obviously kind of took, you know, we kind of replaced about $1.5 billion of debt this year between the two mortgages we took out that were kind of at the lowish 4% and, you know, replaced it with that that's kind of trading more so kind of in the, you know, six to low sixes right now. So, kind of 200 basis points on that. So it's a $30 million type of headwind annually. I would say that as we kind of bring leverage down, we'll see reductions in the spread grid in our term loan. So we'll get some relief there, we'd expect. We certainly, as you look at our guide and kind of hold net debt to where it is, you kind of get certainly below six, closer to 5.8 times. That'll bring us a notch down.

And as we go through next year, bringing Royal Palm back online. getting recovery from Hawaii, of course, and the like, and certainly expect some continued growth in the portfolio, we should start to continue to bring that down to the next layer. So there will be a little bit of a tailwind, too, to that offset, offsetting some of the headwind next year, we would expect. Sean, how does that price go?.

Richard Hightower

and grid on the floating rate change if you go down below six. It goes down about 25 bps. Okay, great. Thank you. Our next question is from David Katz with Jefferies.

David Katz

Hey, David. Thank you. Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. You've talked a decent amount in different parts and so forth with respect to 2027. Just looking at the portfolio this year, I think each one has sort of its own story. But, you know, if we were to pile up, you know, some of the headwinds or calendar issues or whatever the case may be. from this year and what we're seeing in this quarter and roll them into next year. I think Ian obviously does a copious job with us offline about it, but I wanted to get a sense for what 27 could be when we start to walk across the opportunity set and some of the internal headwinds that you've had here and just be a little clearer about what the upside could totally be to the degree that you can. I know you're not maybe guiding today, uh, But any help we'll take it.

Unknown Speaker

Yes, David, I appreciate the question. It's always good to get your thoughtful and insightful perspective. I'd make a couple observations for you and for the broader listeners. One, I think Park is incredibly well positioned for 2027. If you start with Miami and Royal Palm, hopefully you're able to join us next week and you'll for yourself. Yep. As we said in our remarks, there's about 200 basis points again impact total REVPAR growth rate. So I think candidly we start with a stronger position than perhaps many of our peers there.

We really didn't get the benefit from the World Cup. We were about 26 to 30 bips plus or minus, pretty insignificant. And candidly, America 250, not significant for us as well. A little bit of activity in D.C. in one year, one particular situation, but that's it. So you start with a real strong tailwind there. You also, if you look across our portfolio, we've got over the next really four years, not only does the industry benefit, but I think Park in particular benefits from really muted supply growth. can't stress enough the importance of that. We haven't had a situation like that over the last decade 10 years or so where we're looking three, four, perhaps five years where you're sub 1%.

I think for Park we're at probably 0.7, 0.8. Also keep in mind if you look at the long term average, obviously I've been around for a minute or two, David as you know, It's probably historically been two, 2.2% over the last 20-30 years. So that and across our portfolio I think gives us a benefit. One of the things that we can't lose sight of is just the AI trade and the investment cycle. non-residential fixed investment spending in a really high correlation, about 90% plus or minus in hotel room demand. That's probably been as high as ever. The recent print was 12.7, and that's lapping in the second quarter about 9%. That is significant. So if you have anything even remotely like that, we think that's going to continue to be a tailwind for the sector and certainly for Park as well. pace as we one of the earlier questions I got group pace of about six percent a a solid citywide calendar in the park portfolio.

And again, the Hawaii ramp up, having renovated now 80% of the rooms when the Leahy is done, coupled with the fact that we're at about 105% Hilton, Hawaiian Village in RevPAR index, but we're only going to be at about 90% for Hilton Waikoloa. So getting back to fair share and getting back to where we were historically with Hilton Hawaiian Village really, again, provides us with a tailwind and really momentum as well. And then continued growth at Bonnet Creek. Bonnet Creek. We've taken Bonnet Creek from 60 million to, as we said in our remarks, probably at 108 million, if not more, this year. We can all do the math. It's been a phenomenal success, but we're still barely at fair share. The Signia is about 99.5% index and the Waldorf is about 94, 95%.

So you still have growth opportunity. So I think when you add all of that up and we don't have the tough comps that perhaps some of our peers will have, I think it really positions. park to be in a strong position in 2027 as we look out. So Todd, sorry for the long, but I think it's important that I frame that and that people understand that there is a lot of optionality and significant tailwinds for park as we look out. 27 and beyond. Noted. And to the same end,.

David Katz

And on my follow-up, maybe Sean could just touch on what the cost landscape is going to look like for you.

Sean Dell'Orto

That would help. Thanks. Yes, I mean, I still think we're going to be in a situation where we're cost per occupied room is kind of in that low to mid threes range. So it's going to be kind of, you know, dependent on on the growth, depending on mix of Occ and of ADR. Of course, I certainly expect and as Tom noted on on group as maybe a proxy, you're certainly seeing more pricing power and rate in that segment, and certainly expect it in other segments as well going forward. So a little bit more of a rate side than an occupancy growth side. So that could ultimately keep expenses a little bit more, you know, not growing as much as they have this year. You know, Royal Palm does add about 100 basis points to expenses for the first half of the year. It's lapping being closed last, you know, for the first half of this year.

So you're going to have that element that kind of, you know, bleeds into what we're seeing now and bleeding into the first half of next year. And then it will kind of, you know, come back down and lap its, you know, opening reopening and ramp up in the back half of the year. So again, probably plus or minus 2530 basis points of CPOR cost occupied room impact by Royal Palm but I think in the end you know from a net standpoint you're probably looking across the portfolio. in that kind of three to three and a half range, kind of as a base cost expense. And then from there, you know, depending on occupancy and staffing, labor, and everything else, You'll have that, and then you'll have offsets in the first half of the year, the 2 and 20% down on insurance. to fight the fight on appeals with property tax, keep fixed costs in check as an offset. and then ultimately variable costs based on revenues are what they are as we think about growth next year. Thank you. Super.

Operator

Our next question is from Chris Waronka with Deutsche Bank. Morning.

Chris Woronka

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Morning. Just had one question. but you know, you guys, there's been a lot of talk about RevPAR versus TrevPAR this year and you guys and others have explained, uh, some very legitimate reasons why. So the question is, if you think about next year, do you think the composition of the groups changes to the point where maybe TrevPAR goes back above RevPAR? And also on the transient side, on the BT side, have you guys seen any, and I guess we could include if you want, but have you seen any changes in customer behavior in terms of utilization of the primary F&B outlets or other ancillary? Thanks. Yes.

Unknown Speaker

Obviously, Chris, you've got a lot to unpack there. Let me take a first stab, and then Sean can jump in. And I know some of the listeners are concerned about, obviously, third quarter. I think it's important for people to keep in mind, we had in the third quarter three major storms in Hawaii. Right. Fortunately, none were a direct hit, but the impact that it has, and so we ended up with some room-only blocks, so you're not getting the out-of-room spend. You had some displaced, obviously, residents. which obviously impacts. So it's sort of a one time.

We and Sean and I went back and looked and September is more normalized. You know, we expect the same in the strong, obviously, performance that we're seeing in October. It's a daily leasing business. It is, you are going to be impacted by weather and different events in one time. that clearly contributed to what we saw. Regarding BT and whether F&B, I mean, I also think that's sort of a case by case. BT is improving. We all see that as a stronger growth segment, but the reality is, you know, BT, I'd say BT mix is improving. Aggregate BT is still below where we were in 2019. So there's probably been some modest impact on that, your mix and how you market and how you maximize value, I think, gives you great opportunities.

So we're not at all alarmed. In fact, we're encouraged. We're encouraged by the strong demand that we're seeing and that the sector is seeing. We've obviously had a solid year and we think 27 is only going to be stronger for what we control. There are obviously geopolitical and macro issues we don't control. But as we look out and for the long list that I walked through in terms of the benefits in 27, Park is very, very well positioned in 27 and 28 as we look out.

Sean Dell'Orto

Yes, Chris, what I would add, too, is real fast, if I could, is that Tom kind of touched on channel. And I would say, you know, as we look across pretty much all the sub-segments, you've seen strong ADR growth in those segments. You've seen for corporate negotiated and for leisure, you've seen the rate growth, you know, kind of sequentially increase from, you know, throughout the year thus far through the first three quarters. But I think more importantly, what you've seen is. You've seen, you know, moving out of things like government and leisure, you know, discounted leisure, and into, you know, higher-rated business, corporate negotiated, higher-rated leisure business. So, you know, having that ability, just given with the broad-based demand, you know, we're kind of getting to that position where, and I think, you know, people are adapting to it at this point, is, you know, optimizing the mix and ultimately focusing on the right channels. I think if you think about last year, you had the pipeline for group drying up for in the quarter for the year tariffs and people kind of sitting on their hands not making decisions.

You had government, reduced government spend. You had Canadians not wanting to travel to the U.S. You had a number of things. And so now that you come into this year and you've got a lot, you know, broad-based demand here, you know, last year you were trying to induce demand. Now you've got it coming in all directions. You've got to kind of, you know, you've got to find a way to, you know, optimize. I think teams are navigating that and adjusting, and certainly as we think about the budgets being rolled up, our asset managers are certainly pushing them in their commercial strategies and telling them to kind of be confident, be more confident now you think about pricing as you go into next year.

So I think it's all evolving here in a good way as we go through the year here. Yes.

Operator

Okay. Super helpful. Much appreciated. Thanks, guys. Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Herring with Green Street Capital.

Michael Herring

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Morning. You know, maybe just going back to Hawaii and the discussion there, I'm just curious your thoughts, you know, with the strength of premium travel in the U.S. this year and putting aside the market share gains that you expect, how do you think the Honolulu market fits into that fold going forward from a domestic travel perspective, especially as international travel continues to remain depressed?.

Unknown Speaker

I think it fits very well as you think about, well, you made the point about international. Let's sort of start there for a second. I mean, we're... inbound international is about 87% of where we were in 2019. So obviously given the change in leadership in government obviously the recent elections, maybe we start to see improvement there. that would be pretty significant if you think historically the visitation that we've had in Hawaii we're still down as it relates to the Japanese traveler but we're also down across many other countries as well so to the extent that you see international improve, I certainly think that's going to be a benefit. Airlift. into Hawaii has only been growing from Southwest and Alaska Airlines and United and many others. So we are very encouraged. Obviously, as we noted, we were up 7% in third quarter. You take out the hurricane impact, you're at 10%.

As we think about just even October alone, Hilton Waikoloa, I think, was up about 55%, 60%. So very, very encouraged in Hawaii. It is a special location. It's beautiful. been generational. We don't expect that to be changing. And we're very encouraged as we think about the future there.

Michael Herring

I appreciate the thoughts and maybe one other just on, you know, turning to the transaction market and given the health of the market generally, I was curious to get your thoughts on the appetite for potentially capitalizing on selling some of your core assets to CFOs. given the strength in pricing that we've seen in some cases. Okay.

Unknown Speaker

I think I've been pretty clear. This management team, leadership team is not entrenched. Our board is not entrenched. And to the extent we compelling offers are made for assets or the entity, we certainly will do what's in shareholders' best interest. We're not actively marketing any of those, but we do get calls occasionally, and we assess and evaluate whether or not they're credible or whether they're real. If something's real, we certainly have an obligation and a responsibility to evaluate it.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to Tom Baltimore for any closing comments.

Unknown Speaker

Appreciate everybody taking time, and we look forward to seeing many of you Monday, Tuesday on the investor tour down in South Florida and Miami and Key West. And if we don't see you there, we hope to see many of you at NAREIT in Atlanta. Safe travels.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you again for your participation.

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