Cable One (CABO) 2026年第三季法說會：營收下滑之際寬頻流失收窄

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季營收從去年同期的 3.760 億美元下滑至 3.322 億美元，主要受住宅數據、住宅視訊及商業數據營收減少所致。
• 住宅寬頻淨流失戶數從第二季的約 17,100 戶縮小至約 7,500 戶，創下 Cable One 七個季度以來的最佳淨增表現。新開通戶數表現則創 12 個季度以來新高。
• 調整後 EBITDA 從 2.019 億美元降至 1.598 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率亦從 53.7% 縮減至 48.1%。
• 由於用戶數減少 5.3% 且 ARPU 下滑 4.5%，住宅數據營收年減 10.3%。在競爭性定價與促銷活動加劇的情況下，ARPU 亦較上一季減少約 2 美元。
• 商業服務銷售營收季增 17%。企業與電信營運商銷售營收分別成長約 26% 與 21%。
• 截至本季末，Cable One 擁有 6.748 億美元現金、35.5 億美元總債務，過去 12 個月淨槓桿率為 4.1 倍。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

儘管用戶數持續流失，住宅寬頻趨勢已有所改善。淨流失戶數從第二季的約 17,100 戶縮小至約 7,500 戶。到府銷售（Door-to-door sales）較上一季近乎翻倍，數位通路開通戶數則增加約 9%。兩者合計佔總開通戶數近 44%，高於第二季的約 38% 及去年同期的 27%。

客戶留存仍是首要任務。Cable One 正在推動免費網速升級、全新 CRM 平台以及具備 AI 功能的客戶管理工具。該公司亦在調整促銷期滿定價策略（promotional roll-offs），並擴展行動通訊、進階 WiFi、網路安全與 Tech Assist 等服務。Tech Assist 銷售訂單較第二季增加逾一倍，進階 WiFi 訂閱數與搭售率（attachment rates）亦見提升。

競爭性定價持續對寬頻 ARPU 和營收造成壓力。管理層表示，在現有網路容量的支援下，其獲客策略著重於盡可能在業務覆蓋範圍內普及 1 Gbps 或更高速的服務。

商業服務銷售表現回溫，總銷售營收季增 17%。企業及電信營運商銷售營收分別成長約 26% 與 21%。管理層表示，下一階段的首要任務是更快速且穩定地將銷售營收轉化為已安裝且可收費的營收。

該公司亦指出 UCaaS（整合通訊即時服務）初期的採用情況令人振奮，目前正針對商業客戶試行行動通訊服務。住宅行動通訊業務則持續符合管理層預期地擴展規模，儘管該業務目前規模仍小。

管理層財務指引

Cable One 預期 2026 年全年資本支出將落在接近 3 億美元的高檔區間（high-$200 million range）。相關支出將持續支援成長計畫，同時公司仍聚焦於降低債務。

管理層預期，隨著定價、促銷期滿調整及競爭方案的變化，季度 ARPU 表現仍將呈現波動。執行長 James Holanda 表示，隨著 Cable One 在用戶成長、留存與營收之間取得平衡，先前討論過從約 81 至 82 美元的 ARPU 高峰下滑 2 至 5 美元的大致趨勢，長期來看依然合乎情理。

該公司亦預期平台投資將帶來額外的成本節約並提升營運效率。管理層表示，將廣告銷售業務交由第三方服務商營運，隨著時間推移應能提高對調整後 EBITDA 的貢獻。

風險與關注領域

• 競爭性定價與促銷活動依然熱絡，對寬頻 ARPU 和營收帶來壓力。
• 光纖到戶（FTTH）與該公司總涵蓋戶數的重疊率略高於 11%，而整體 Gigabit 有線寬頻的競爭重疊率則落在 65% 至 70% 左右的中高區間。此外，幾乎在 Cable One 的每個市場中，都有一到兩家固定無線網路業者在營運。
• 儘管獲客趨勢有所改善，但用戶數仍持續流失，使客戶留存成為關鍵的執行重點。
• 總債務達 35.5 億美元，且 Cable One 在第三季從循環信貸額度中淨借款 5 億美元。該公司正在評估融資替代方案，以保持長期財務彈性。
• Cable One 認列了與特許權協議、商譽及其對 MBI 投資相關的非現金減損費用與公允價值調整。管理層表示，這些費用並不影響現金流、流動性或營運策略。

分析師問答重點

管理層表示，較低的初期優惠定價短期內可能對 ARPU 和 EBITDA 造成壓力，但公司認為用戶成長與更高的滲透率是更具永續性的長期價值來源。各項客戶留存工具旨在配合新客戶開通速度的提升。

在競爭狀況方面，管理層指出，光纖、固定無線及衛星業者之間的定價差異甚大。Cable One 計劃專注於具價格競爭力的 1 Gbps 或更高速服務，而非被動回應個別市場的促銷方案。

關於商業服務，管理層指出，2026 年初的資產出售約佔年營收 900 萬美元及現金流 600 萬美元。若扣除該出售案的影響，商業數據業務實質上呈現持平至成長態勢，且近期的銷售動能預計將在接下來幾季更加顯著。

管理層未提供有關 MBI 的最新進展，並表示將繼續評估適當的後續行動。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Cable One Inc. third quarter earnings release. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Jordan Morkert, Vice President of Investor Relations. Jordan, please go ahead.

Jordan Morkert

Good afternoon, and welcome to Cable One's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. We're glad to have you join us as we review our results. Before we proceed, I would like to remind you that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements relating to future events that involve risks and uncertainties, including statements regarding future revenue, customer growth, connects churn rates and ARPU, future competition, the anticipated benefits of our mobile service offering, new product rollouts, future customer retention trends, future benefits from our cost savings initiatives, anticipated cost savings and other benefits to be derived from our investments in growth enablement platforms, the expected benefits to be derived from the transition of our advertising sales operations to a third-party provider, our plans to expand our multi-gig capabilities in more markets, future cash flow and capital expenditures, potential uses for our cash flow, MBI's future operating or financial performance future tax savings, our expectations for monetizing our remaining equity investments and our future financial performance, capital allocation policy, leverage ratios and related targets and potential financing plans.

You can find factors that could cause Cable One's actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements discussed during today's call in today's earnings release and in our SEC filings, including our 2025 annual report on Form 10-K and our forthcoming third quarter 2026 quarterly report on Form 10-Q. Cable One is under no obligation and expressly disclaims any obligation, except as required by law, to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Additionally, today's remarks will include a discussion of certain financial measures that are not presented in conformity with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP.

When we refer to free cash flow during today's call, we mean adjusted EBITDA less capital expenditures as defined in our earnings release. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release or on our website at ir.cableone.net. Joining me on today's call is our CEO, Jim Holanda; and CFO, Todd Koetje.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

James Holanda

Thank you, Jordan, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Q3 reflected meaningful progress in customer trends. We delivered our strongest quarterly connect performance in 12 quarters and our best net adds in 7 quarters. While net adds remained negative, the trend improved meaningfully. Today, I'll provide updates on residential broadband and business services, the work underway to improve retention and the customer experience, recent additions to our senior leadership team and the steps we're taking to manage our cost structure. Todd will provide more detail on our financial performance and ongoing balance sheet management initiatives.

Turning to residential broadband. Our connect performance was our strongest in 12 quarters. While we still experienced subscriber losses, net losses narrowed to approximately 7,500 from approximately 17,100 in Q2, representing our best net add result in 7 quarters. Our more balanced acquisition approach continues to show results. Our door-to-door sales efforts nearly doubled from the second quarter, while digital connects grew approximately 9%. Together, these channels accounted for nearly 44% of total connects, up from approximately 38% in the second quarter and approximately 27% a year ago.

Retention remains an opportunity and a priority. We're making progress on the initiatives discussed on prior calls. These include free speed upgrades and equipping our retention teams with new tools, including a CRM platform and implementation of AI into our customer management tools. We're also taking a more deliberate approach to promotional roll-offs to help manage true. Alongside those efforts, we remain focused on broadening the value we offer customers through products and services such as mobile, premium WiFi, cybersecurity and tech assist. In Q3, tech assist sales orders more than doubled from the prior quarter while premium WiFi subscriptions and attachment rates also increased. These offerings can help deepen customer relationships, support retention and contribute to ARPU. Competitive pricing and promotional activity remained elevated and put pressure on ARPU and revenue. ARPU declined approximately $2 sequentially in Q3. We do not expect ARPU to move in a straight line from quarter-to-quarter as we respond to competition and customer needs. Our focus remains on balancing subscriber growth, retention and revenue over time.

Moving on to Business Services. We're encouraged by improving sales momentum. Overall, sold revenue increased 17% in the third quarter with growth across each of our primary sales channels, making Q3 our strongest sales quarter of the year. Enterprise and Carrier were important contributors with sold revenue increasing approximately 26% and 21% respectively, compared with the second quarter. We're also broadening our product portfolio. Following the introduction of UCaaS, our cloud-based business communications solution we've seen encouraging early customer adoption, helping increase the value of those customer relationships. Additionally, we're piloting mobile for business customers creating another opportunity to meet more of the needs beyond core connectivity. Together, these offerings support our strategy to deepen customer relationships and grow revenue over time. Our focus now is on scaling these opportunities while improving the speed and consistency with which sold revenue converts to installed billable revenue.

Turning to residential mobile. We continue to scale the offering with performance in line with our expectations. Our focus remains on building awareness of Sparklight as a mobile provider and growing adoption amongst our broadband customers. While the business is still small, we continue to see mobile as an opportunity to strengthen those relationships and increased customer lifetime value. Since our last call, we strengthened our senior leadership team with the addition of Heather McCallion as Chief Operating Officer; Mike Carrosquilla and Jared Sonne as Senior Vice President of Operations; and Courtney Long is Senior Vice President of Customer Experience. Together, they bring extensive experience across broadband operations, customer care and business transformation, including leadership roles at several major providers. These appointments add depth to our team and provide more direct support for our regional operations with a focus on consistent execution and stronger customer relationships.

As these leaders build on the work already underway, our priorities remain consistent: sustain our momentum in customer acquisition and use the tools we've put in place to improve retention and the customer experience. Over time, we expect their experience and leadership to help us operate more efficiently and deliver stronger performance. That work also includes aligning our cost structure with the revenue trends while maintaining the quality of service our customers expect. We continue to expect our key platform investments to deliver additional cost savings and operating efficiencies. We're also taking further steps to align our cost base with the needs of the business including an early retirement offering launched this quarter. Across customer service, sales and operations, we're using AI tools and simplifying processes to improve productivity and efficiency while making it easier for customers to do business with us.

To close, we made meaningful progress in customer trends this quarter with stronger connect performance and our best net add performance in 7 quarters. Building on this momentum remains a priority as we work to improve retention, expand the value we deliver to customers and manage our cost structure. The experienced leaders we've added to the team will help advance these priorities. We have more work ahead, but I remain confident in the long-term opportunity for our business. That confidence is grounded in the strength of our network, the cash flow the business generates and the opportunities we see to deepen customer relationships and improve execution across our markets.

With that, I'll turn it over to Todd to provide more detail on our financial performance and ongoing balance sheet management activities.

Todd Koetje

Thanks, Jim. Total revenues for the third quarter of 2026 were $332.2 million compared to $376 million for the third quarter of 2025. Residential data revenues decreased by $23.5 million or 10.3% year-over-year, due primarily to a 4.5% decline in ARPU and a 5.3% decrease in subscribers. Business data revenues decreased by $3.9 million year-over-year or 6.7% with $2.3 million of the decline attributable to the tower contracts divested in early 2026. Residential video declined by $9.3 million or 20.7%.

Advertising sales, which are included in other revenues decreased approximately $2.8 million year-over-year reflecting the July 1 transition of our advertising sales operations to a third-party provider. Under this arrangement, advertising revenues are reported net of agency fees with a corresponding reduction in expenses. The revenue decline was largely offset by lower costs, and we expect the arrangement to improve the business' contribution to adjusted EBITDA over time. Operating expenses increased by $2.7 million or 2.8% compared to the third quarter of last year due to higher software and contract labor costs, partially offset by lower programming costs. OpEx represented 29.7% of revenues in Q3 of 2026 and 25.5% in Q3 of 2025.

Selling, general and administrative costs for the third quarter of 2026 decreased by $18.5 million or 18.4% year-over-year, due primarily to lower labor expense and reduced billing system conversion costs. SG&A was 24.8% of revenues in Q3 of 2026 compared to 26.8% in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2026 was $159.8 million or 48.1% of total revenues compared to $201.9 million and 53.7% in Q3 of 2025. Capital expenditures totaled $77.9 million in the third quarter, representing 48.8% of adjusted EBITDA. The $6.1 million year-over-year increase in CapEx was driven by the increased momentum in new connect activity as well as our investments in the latest in-home advanced WiFi technologies and security solutions to drive increased customer satisfaction and related loyalty. We expect full year CapEx to be in the high $200 million range as we continue to invest in future growth while simultaneously remaining focused on debt reduction initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA less CapEx was $81.9 million in Q3 of 2026 versus $130.1 million in Q3 of last year.

During the third quarter, we recognized several noncash impairment charges and fair value adjustments related to our franchise agreements, goodwill and our investment in MBI. These accounting charges do not impact our cash flow, liquidity, operating strategy or long-term growth initiatives. Additional details are included in our earnings release and Form 10-Q. During the quarter, we drew a net of $500 million under our revolver. As of September 30, our cash balance was $674.8 million, while our gross debt totaled $3.55 billion, consisting of approximately $1.65 billion of term loans, $1.05 billion of revolver borrowings, $503 million of unsecured notes, $345 million of convertible notes and $3 million of finance lease liabilities. We also had $200 million undrawn under our $1.25 billion committed revolver at the end of the quarter. Taking into account our net debt and Q3 results our net leverage ratio was 4.1x on a trailing 12-month basis.

Our balance sheet continues to be supported by a substantial cash balance and strong operating liquidity. We remain focused on strengthening it and continue to actively evaluate a range of financing alternatives with the objective of maintaining financial flexibility over the long term. With respect to MBI, we continue to evaluate the appropriate next steps and do not have any additional updates to announce today.

With that, we can open it up for questions.

Operator

The first question is from the line of Greg Williams of TD Cowen.

分析師問答

Gregory Williams

The data sub losses improved better than expected as you noted, but the broadband ARPU was down 4.5% to $78.48, I think. Is that the sort of strategy going forward to sort of trade subscriber gains for maybe downside ARPU or trading P for Q, if you will? Or should we see a more balanced approach going forward? And when would we see that? The second question is understanding you're still evaluating next steps in MBI and you can't really say much, but any commentary on the timing and resolution anything you can do from a balance sheet perspective while you're in limbo here.

James Holanda

It's Jim. And let me start with the second question first and just point to the 10-Q. As it relates to where everything is at Item 17 under subsequent events lays out pretty much exactly where we are. And so I would refer folks there for any additional details. And clearly, balancing overall ARPU and subscriber gains and longer-term penetration gains given the opportunity here is something we remain focused on. As I mentioned, it's not linear. It's going to bounce around, I think, from quarter-to-quarter based on promo roles and go-to-market strategies and offers as well as rate adjustments from time to time. And the idea, I think, as I mentioned, gosh, I guess, 2 quarterly calls ago was -- I think over the long term, our expectation is that ARPU is going to come down a little bit as we try and balance out our opportunity in terms of titration gains. And so we made meaningful progress in Q3 in that regard, and we look forward to those trends continuing. It's mainly come on the connect side, as I mentioned in my remarks, and I think the additional opportunity that we're highly focused on is on the retention side. We have a lot of new tools at our disposal now that we are using day to day. And hopefully, that can help results over time as well.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Frank Louthan of Raymond James.

Frank Louthan

Walk us through kind of the sub growth there still sort of missed EBITDA, I assume there's a pricing issue there? Or what exactly are you doing to kind of get that going? And then give us an update on the fiber overlap and the fixed wireless overlap in the market.

Todd Koetje

Frank, it's Todd. I appreciate the question. On the sub growth and the pricing dynamic. I think Jim addressed that pretty well on the previous answer as it relates to we have an opportunity on that penetration side of the equation that we've talked about quite extensively now for a while. We're starting to see very good progress around that in terms of new customer connects given the dynamics in the industry, both broadband and throughout the telecom dynamics, the pricing dynamics do sell in at a lower rate than obviously what our enterprise ARPU is. So EBITDA, while it is impacted from a lower ARPU on a more immediate basis, our view is value creation over the long term is much more sustainable for our stakeholders by growing subscribers and a lot of the initiatives that we put in place and are continuing to put in place our focus not only on the new subscriber side of the equation, but as Jim said, on the retentive side of the existing base. We do have some new tools that we feel confident about for that. And then as it relates to your second question here, remind me exactly what you were looking for there.

Frank Louthan

Yes. Can you give us an update on how much fiber coverage you have and overlap to fixed wireless in your market currently?

Todd Koetje

Yes. I just want to make sure it was related to the fiber. The fiber overlap really didn't move much in the quarter. I mean a little bit. It's definitely still increasing. And so you're in that kind of mid- to high as a percent overlap there, which is consistent with what we discussed in the past, our fiber-to-the-home percentage of our total passings. It's a little over 11%. As we've talked about in the past. It's a little bit higher than what it was before. So you get basically an overall what I'd call gig cable competitive overlap that's kind of in the mid- to high 60s. And then fixed wireless is very ubiquitous across our footprint. It doesn't mean that's all 3 of the major wireless providers in every market, but there is 1 or 2 in nearly every market we operate in.

Frank Louthan

Great. Sorry for the redundancy, juggling, 2 different earnings calls.

James Holanda

That's all right.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson.

Craig Moffett

Let's stay with the operating side of the business for a second. There were so many changes in the broadband market during the quarter with really aggressive pricing from especially AT&T early in the quarter and then the price increases late in the quarter and then obviously, Starlink ramping up through the course of the quarter. I wonder if you could just talk a little bit about kind of how the quarter progressed given all those big changes? And maybe in particular, given your relatively rural footprint, what are you seeing from Starlink? And is the fear that a lot of investors have that, that's kind of FWA 2.0 appropriate?

James Holanda

Good question, Craig. For the third quarter, to be honest with you, we were not focused on competitive pricing. And because we have a lot of little fiber companies across 20% of the footprint. We have 1, 2 or 3 FWA providers that have pricing kind of all over the map let alone, Starlink, let alone than what our larger competitors like AT&T are doing. Our focus on the third quarter was to really balance out our sales channels and focus on our go-to-market offer strategies, which basically, we're focused on selling gig or higher speeds across as much of the footprint as we possibly can. We think that serves us best over the long run because so many of our and Starlink competitors can't compete with those speeds today. We have the ability to have it competitively priced across 100% of our footprint regardless of the competitive landscape there. And that strategy served us well in the third quarter in terms of our results. And so we continue to lean into that. We have a very robust network with a lot of excess capacity. And so certainly, one of my early observations was merely taking advantage of that capability and that capacity and have an improved product experience for our customers. And we'll continue to stay kind of focused on that. Interestingly, already, we're seeing cyber offer, right? I think you are right to point out that everyone kind of reset pricing at the beginning of the fourth quarter, it lasted all of 30 days near site can tell. We're already seeing cyber offers in the market from some competitors. And so we certainly expect and plan for the pricing dynamic to remain kind of very up and down and various competitive constituents have to do what they need to do, whether you're a fiber over builder trying to drive penetration, whether you're the AT&T FWA provider that's trying to get a hold now in these markets and being aggressive. It's just all over the map and the best course for us is to focus on a price point that makes sense both for our existing customers and especially our new customers as we compete for these customers. and given the absolute highest quality service that the network can deliver.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Sam McHugh of BNP Paribas.

Samuel McHugh

Jim, just a follow-up on your comments about and come down a little bit. I think in the past, you talked about this 2% to 5% reduction may be needed to stabilize the subscriber losses. I think we're down 3.5% from peak, how -- like how much further down from here do you think we need to go? If you could maybe give a bit more of an update on what you said before? And then secondly, in business data revenues, I think last couple of quarters, it has inflected pretty negatively. Can you talk a bit about what's happening now on pricing? Is it FWA competition, fiber? Any help there would be helpful, too.

James Holanda

Yes. On your first question, I still think the comments I made, I think that was 2 calls ago are still pretty directionally accurate in terms of how we think about the business and where competitors are at. Having said that, to Craig's question just before, will people start to act irrationally potentially, but then all of a sudden, as aggressive as Starlink had been. Now we see the surge pricing and people complaining all over the place in the Midwest. And who knows where that's going to ultimately land. But if we kind of stick to the principles and the game plan that I just outlined in terms of just focusing on we have control over I still think that kind of $2 to $5 range is off of that kind of $81, $82 peak is probably still directionally correct. And just to clarify, was your second question on business services revenue?

Samuel McHugh

Correct. Business paid revenues.

Todd Koetje

Yes. And Sam, it's Todd. I can take that one. One of the things I had in my prepared remarks, but I can elaborate on a little bit more again is as it relates to business data, business data was impacted by that asset sale that we completed in the first quarter. That was about a $9 million full year run rate of revenue, approximately $6 million of cash flow on that. So when you pro forma that, business services was down on slightly, but business data has actually been effectively flat to growing. And what Jim talked about in his prepared remarks was the sell-in into enterprise and carrier actually selling across the entire business services segment, but specifically business -- specifically enterprise and carrier were both up plus 20 points just on a sequential quarter, which gives us a lot of confidence in how that team is really starting to hit its stride. That's the highest quarter from a sold revenue perspective. since 2023. So the momentum is there. It will begin to show more on what I'd say in some of the subsequent quarters. But there has been pretty flat as well. It was a little softer at the beginning of the year in SMB, as we've talked about in the past, with enterprise and carrier seeing some good sell-in. But for the third quarter, both were relatively flat on the ARPU side of the equation. I just want to make sure that you adjusted for the asset sale that impacts the reported figures there.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. We have reached the end of our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Jim for closing remarks.

James Holanda

Yes. Thanks, Conor. Let me just close by thanking our teammates all across the country for the work they do every day to earn our customers' business. Obviously, there is a lot underway across the company in terms of operational initiatives and execution, and I just appreciate all the effort that it takes from our teammates to move these priorities forward. while keeping our customers and our teammates kind of front and center of all of that work. This quarter's progress is encouraging, and our task is now to build on it and translate better customer trends into stronger results. So thank you all for your time today. We appreciate it.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.