Westrock Coffee (WEST) 2026年第三季財報電話會議:EBITDA 創新高與 Conway 產能放量
Westrock Coffee公佈2026年第三季財報,儘管淨銷售額受關稅退款等因素年減15.4%至約3億美元,但合併調整後EBITDA仍創下2,640萬美元的歷史新高,年增約14%。成長主要來自濃縮萃取液與即飲飲料業務擴張、Conway廠產能利用率提升至40%(預計未來18個月內升至85%)、營運槓桿效益以及資本支出降低。公司完成6億美元再融資,將到期日延長至2031年10月,並預期首年減少約1,700萬美元償債支出。管理層維持2026年調整後EBITDA指引於9,000萬至1億美元之間,並預估2027年初步指引約1.3億美元,未來優先事項為保留現金與減少債務。
Westrock Coffee Company (NASDAQ: WEST) 公布 2026 年第三季財報,儘管通報營收下滑,調整後 EBITDA 仍創歷史新高。管理層將此改善歸功於濃縮萃取液與即飲飲料業務成長、Conway 廠產能利用率提高、營運槓桿效益以及資本支出減少。
重點摘要
- 第三季合併調整後 EBITDA 創下歷史新高,達 2,640 萬美元,成長約 14%(較去年同期)。 前九個月調整後 EBITDA 成長 58% 至 7,370 萬美元。
- 淨銷售額下滑 15.4% 至約 3 億美元,主要反映 2,600 萬美元 的關稅退款、生豆轉嫁價格調降,以及先前討論過單份咖啡客戶流失的影響。若不計關稅退款,淨銷售額約為 3.26 億美元。
- Conway 廠目前運作約在 現有產能的 40%。管理層表示,已簽約承諾專案預計將使產能利用率提升至約 85%(未來 18 個月內)。
- Westrock Coffee 維持其 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 財測指引為 9,000 萬美元至 1 億美元,目前預估接近 中位數 9,500 萬美元。2027 年初步財測約為 1.3 億美元。
- 該公司完成了一筆 6 億美元的再融資 將銀行貸款到期日延長至 2031 年 10 月,並預計將所需償債支出減少約 首年 1,700 萬美元。
- 第三季自由現金流連續第二季為正值。 資本支出降至 880 萬美元,不到去年同期水準的一半。
關鍵財務數據
| 指標 | 2026 年第三季 | 變動或比較 | 說明 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 合併淨銷售額 | 約 3 億美元 | 年減 15.4% | 包含約 2,600 萬美元認列為銷售額減項的關稅退款 |
| 不計關稅退款之淨銷售額 | 約 3.26 億美元 | — | 退款對毛利並無影響,因相關供應商退款 降低了銷貨成本 |
| 合併毛利 | 4,150 萬美元 | 與去年同期持平 | 包含 Conway 增加的 310 萬美元折舊 |
| 營業利益 | 320 萬美元 | 相較於虧損 860 萬美元 | 較去年同期改善 1,180 萬美元 |
| 淨虧損 | 1,000 萬美元 | 相較於 1,910 萬美元 | 縮減近 50% |
| 合併調整後 EBITDA | 2,640 萬美元 | 年增約 14% | 創單季歷史新高 |
| 飲品解決方案調整後 EBITDA | 2,330 萬美元 | 年增約 14% | 受惠於 Conway 商業化及成本管理 |
| 永續採購與溯源調整後 EBITDA | 320 萬美元 | 相較於 580 萬美元 | 管理層將下滑歸因於銷售時程 |
| 營運現金流 | 990 萬美元 | — | 支撐正向自由現金流 |
| 自由現金流 | 110 萬美元 | 連續第二季 維持正數 | 第 2 季與第 3 季累計自由現金流約為 2,100 萬美元 |
| 資本支出 | 880 萬美元 | 相較於 1,810 萬美元 | 反映 Conway 從興建階段過渡至營運階段 |
| 擔保淨槓桿比率 | 約 3.1 倍 | 第 2 季為 3.4 倍;去年同期為 4.6 倍 | 12 個月內下降約 1.5 倍 |
2026 年前九個月,合併淨銷售額成長 8% 至 9.15 億美元,毛利 則成長約 11% 至 1.25 億美元。營業利益為 500 萬美元,相較於營業損失 3,670 萬美元(去年同期)。
業務與營運表現
Westrock Coffee 的萃取液與即飲 (RTD) 平台實現兩位數成長,帶動了基礎營運表現。管理階層表示,儘管美國速食店與便利商店的客流量持續承壓,飲料需求仍維持成長。
Conway 廠是該公司成長策略的核心。該廠目前的產能利用率約為 40%,在已承諾客戶專案的推動下,預計未來 18 個月內利用率將提升至約 85%。管理階層表示,在此產能利用率水準下,光是 Conway 廠創造的調整後 EBITDA 就將超過 7,000 萬美元,即全公司在 2025 年創造的水準。
該公司亦表示,已取得新業務,估計相當於 6,000 萬美元的年化 EBITDA,且儲備專案規模超過 1 億美元。在單杯裝(single-serve)業務方面,新簽約業務已補回前一年損失業務約三分之一。
Conway 廠亦推動了交叉銷售。有超過 70% 的新客戶購買了多種產品類別(據管理階層表示)。對超濾高蛋白乳製品的需求,亦促使研發中的品項數量創下歷史新高。
營運槓桿持續改善。儘管 Conway 廠規模擴張,營業費用與去年同期相比基本持平,管理階層預期新專案帶來的新增毛利將有很大一部分直接挹注至 EBITDA。第三季也是首個未計入 Conway 廠相關成本回加(add-backs)的季度,使該季成為評估銷售與管理費用(SG&A)更具參考價值的基準。
管理階層指引
| 展望 | 管理階層指引 | 關鍵條件 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 年合併調整後 EBITDA | 9,000 萬至 1 億美元 | 目前預估接近 9,500 萬美元的中位數;最終結果主要取決於客戶組合的決策 |
| 2026 年資本支出 | 約 3,000 萬美元 | 相較於 2025 年的 8,900 萬美元及 2024 年的 1.6 億美元 |
| 2027 年合併調整後 EBITDA | 約 1.3 億美元 | 客戶配額仍取決於預計在 2027 年第一季前做出的決策 |
| 2027 年資本支出 | 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元 | 包含為履行客戶承諾所投入的增量成長支出 |
管理階層預期數項已簽約專案將在 2027 年中後期啟動。因此,該公司預計在 2027 年底時的年化 EBITDA 運轉率(run rate),將大幅高於該年度實際認列的金額。
長期而言,管理階層認為在未來三至五年內,進一步的生產與包裝投資有望讓 Conway 廠的 EBITDA 貢獻再度翻倍。管理階層亦表示,2028 年調整後 EBITDA 的成長幅度可能達到約 30% 至 40%(相較於預期的 2027 年水準),同時強調客戶的時程與配額仍存在不確定性。
再融資與資產負債表
Westrock Coffee 完成了新的 6 億美元優先擔保第一順位信貸額度,其中包括 3 億美元定期貸款 與 3 億美元循環信貸額度。該信貸額度將於 2031 年 10 月到期。貸款機構承諾總額約為 7.37 億美元,使該公司得以將交易規模從最初的 5 億美元目標進一步擴大。
作為再融資的一部分,Westrock Coffee 購回了 4,000 萬美元(佔其 7,200 萬美元 2029 年到期可轉換公司債),使用了約 2,100 萬美元現金並發行約 240 萬股。其餘的 3,200 萬美元展期至 2032 年 1 月 20 日。
交易完成後,非受限現金與未動用循環信貸額度總計約 2.7 億美元,相較於約 9,500 萬美元(截至 9 月 30 日)。管理階層表示,其近期優先事項是保留現金並減少債務,而非進行股票買回。
風險與關注事項
- 管理階層表示,進入第 4 季消費者需求呈現波動,尤其是在燃料成本對客流量構成壓力的情況下。
- 食品與燃料價格仍是管理階層持續監控的短期變數。
- 2026 年 EBITDA 表現部分取決於最終的客戶組合決策,而 2027 年展望仍受制於客戶採購量分配與專案推出時程。
- 管理階層預期,有擔保淨槓桿率將暫時上升約 0.5 倍(於第 4 季),隨後再增加 0.25 至 0.5 倍(於 2027 年第 1 季),主因是年度員工激勵獎金發放以及轉嫁給客戶的關稅退稅。
- 近期部分自由現金流受惠於營運資金的時間差因素,管理階層預期此情況將會反轉。實質性的去槓桿預計將於 2027 年第 2 季開始恢復。
- Conway 不斷擴大的開發案量,在商業化、生產與客戶服務方面帶來了執行層面的要求。
分析師問答重點
資本配置: 管理階層計畫優先保留現金並減少債務。公司可能會考慮不會增加淨槓桿的內部或外部機會,但表示短期內不太可能實施股票買回。
2027 年獲利節奏: 約 1.3 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 展望包含於 2027 年中及後期推出的客戶專案。因此,管理階層預期年底的年化運行率將超越全年表現。
資本支出: 該公司預期 2027 年資本支出為 3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元。在目前的營運計畫下,管理階層預計年支出不會回到 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的水準。
利潤率: 管理階層預期,隨著 Conway 佔業務比重提高,毛利率將會上升。Conway 專案的利潤率高於該公司大部分既有業務,而有限的新增營運費用應有助於支撐 EBITDA 轉換。
完整財報電話會議逐字稿
完整財報電話會議逐字稿
管理層陳述
Operator
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker, Joanne Arnold, VP of Investor Relations.
Please go ahead.
Operator
Thank you and welcome to Westrock Coffee Company's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. With us are Mr. Scott Ford, co-founder and chief executive officer, and Mr. Chris Pledger, chief financial officer. By now, everyone should have access to the company's third quarter earnings release issued earlier today. This information is available on the investor relations section of Westrock Coffee Company's website at investors. Certain comments made on this call include forward-looking statements which are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.
Please refer to today's press release and other filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. Also, discussions during the call use certain non-GAAP financial measures as we describe business performance. The SEC filings, as well as the earnings press release, provide reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. And with that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott Ford, our co-founder and chief executive officer.
Scott Ford
Thank you, Juwan. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I want to focus on three things today, our growth and the operating model behind it. strength of the beverage category and what it says about the investments we've made and the refinancing we've just completed. growth the third quarter was a record quarter for Westrock consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached a record twenty six point four million up about 14% from a year ago and through the nine months it's up about 58% it was our sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBITDA growth and our second straight quarter of positive free cash flow. That is the operating model doing what we built it to do and the credit belongs to our people and the customers who trust us with their brands. Second, the category. Quick service restaurant and convenience store traffic in the U.S. is down this year, yet beverage keeps growing. Operators are building out energy, refreshers, cold coffee, and craft formats because those programs draw traffic and carry some of the best margins on their menus. That is the demand Conway was built to serve, and it is why our extract and ready-to-drink programs kept growing in a soft consumer quarter. Today Conway is running at about 40% of its current capacity and committed programs take it to roughly 85% over the next 18 months.
At that level, Conway alone will generate more than the 70 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA this entire company produced in 2025. As we continue to add production capabilities and packaging equipment over the next three to five years, we believe we can double the EBITDA contribution from Conway yet again. Customers who come for Conway are putting programs in place across the rest of our platform, too. So far this year, we've won new business worth an estimated $60 million of annualized EBITDA, with a pipeline of more than 100 million behind that. And in single serve, we've already contracted enough new business to replace one-third of the business we lost last year. This begins in early 2017. That said, the consumer remains choppy heading into the fourth quarter, especially where fuel costs weigh on traffic. But most of our growth comes from contracted programs coming online, not simply from a rising consumer tide.
Third, the refinancing. Even in a tight financing market, our lenders committed 737 million to a 500 million deal ask, and we were pleased to close our new 600 million upsized facility late last month. It matures in October of 2031, and we are grateful for the confidence and the leadership of Rabobank and several other large institutions that have made this refinancing possible. With construction behind us and capital spending a fraction of what it has been, this was the last ingredient we needed to build a large, profitable business. platform, the people, the customers, and now a balance sheet built for the long term. This brings me to our outlook. For 2026, we continue to expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA between 90 and 100 million, largely dependent on final customer mix decision. Our current estimate is squarely in the middle of this range. At a 95 million year-end level, this critical growth metric would be up 36% over 2025, after being up 48% the prior year.
And building on this, our initial 2027 outlook is for about 130 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, nearly double what we earned in 2025, and up another 35% over the midpoint this year. Regardless of exactly where our 27 number lands, we fully anticipate ending 2027 at a much higher annualized run rate due to the customer programs scheduled to launch later in the year. Beyond that, the growth built into our customer agreements together with our pipeline gives us room to do even better over time. though we are watching fuel and food prices closely in the short term. Sitting here today, balance, we are more optimistic about where we'll land than we are concerned. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris Pledger, our CFO. Chris?.
Thomas Pledger
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me take you through the quarter in more detail, starting with the P&L, moving to cash flow and the balance sheet, and then ending with the refinancing we just completed on October 21st. Consolidated net sales were approximately 300 million in the third quarter, down 15.4% compared to the third quarter of 2025. Most of that decline reflects factors that are important to separate from the underlying operating performance of the business. The largest driver is approximately 26 million in tariff refunds that we pass through or expect to pass through to our customers, which we record as a reduction of net sales rather than as cost. The corresponding refunds we collected from our vendors reduced cost of goods sold, so there's no gross profit impact. Excluding this item, net sales would have been approximately 326 million.
The balance of the decline reflects lower green coffee prices, which pass through to our customers at cost, and the previously discussed single-serve customer loss. These factors should not mask our strong underlying business performance during the quarter, led by double-digit growth in our ready-to-drink extracts platform. Importantly, although consolidated net sales were lower in the third quarter versus the prior year, through the first nine months of this year, consolidated net sales were 915 million, up 8% compared to the first nine months of 2025. Consolidated gross profit was 41.5 million in the third quarter, flat compared to the prior year. And year-to-date gross profit was 125 million, up approximately 11% from the prior year period. Both periods include incremental depreciation associated with our investment in Conway, 3.1 million in the quarter and 11.4 million year to date. We continue to see significant improvement in our operating profitability.
In the third quarter, we generated operating profit of 3.2 million compared to an operating loss of 8.6 million a year ago. Through the first nine months of the year, operating profit was 5 million, compared with an operating loss of 36.7 million in the prior year period, a swing of 41.7 million over the past year, and our net loss narrowed by almost 50% in the quarter to 10 million from 19.1 million. Another important proof point that our model is working is that despite significant growth at Conway, our operating expense base was essentially flat year over year. This is the operating leverage that we've been building towards. The platform was sized for substantially more volume than it carries today, and the overhead required to run it does not scale with that volume. As Conway continues to bring contracted programs online, we expect a significant portion of that incremental gross profit to flow through to EBITDA. All of this translated into record quarterly consolidated adjusted EBITDA of 26.4 million, up approximately 14% year-over-year.
And through the first nine months of 2026, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was 73.7 million, up 58% over the same period last year. Beginning in the third quarter, we no longer add back Conway's subscale operating costs in calculating beverage solutions segment adjusted EBITDA. Conway has reached a scale at which those costs are properly treated as ordinary operating costs. So this quarter's segment result absorbs costs that were excluded from the prior year comparison. Despite this, we still delivered beverage solutions segment adjusted EBITDA of 23.3 million, an increase of approximately 14% compared to the third quarter of 2025. The performance reflects strength across our underlying flavors, extracts, and ingredients capabilities driven by the continued commercialization of Conway and the benefits of our business optimization and expense management efforts. We've also crossed the utilization level where new business flows largely through to EBITDA.
From here, each new program, whether an existing customer ramping or a new customer onboarding, comes in at a higher incremental margin. Our sustainable sourcing and traceability segment generated segment adjusted EBITDA 3.2 million in the third quarter, compared to 5.8 million in the prior year period. The third quarter comparison reflects sales timing within the year. Year-to-date, segment adjusted EBITDA of 11.6 million is up more than 5% year-over-year and consistent with our expectations for the full year. We generated cash flows from operations of 9.9 million and positive free cash flow, which we define as cash from operations less additions to property, plant, and equipment of 1.1 million during the quarter. This marks our second consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow, bringing cumulative free cash flow over the second and third quarters to approximately 21 million. Part of that resulted from working capital timing we expect to reverse, but improved profitability and lower capital expenditures are fundamentally changing our cash flow profile.
To that point, capital expenditures were approximately 8.8 million during the quarter, less than half of the 18.1 million invested in the third quarter of 2025. Year-to-date, our capital expenditures were 22.4 million compared to 79.9 million in the comparable prior year period. We continue to project approximately 30M of capital expenditures for the full year compared to 89M in 2025 and 160M in 2024. This is the structural inflection point. We've discussed for several quarters as Conway has moved from construction into operation. We also continued to deleverage during the quarter, with secured net leverage at September 30th declining to approximately 3.1 times from 3.4 times at the end of the second quarter and 4.6 times a year ago. Put differently, over the last 12 months, we've reduced secured net leverage by approximately one and a half turns. or roughly one-third, driven by a combination of debt reductions and earnings growth.
Over that period, secured net debt declined approximately 59 million, while credit agreement-adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately 17 million. As previously announced on October 21st, we took another important step in strengthening our financial position with the completion of our new 600 million senior secured first lien credit facilities, consisting of 300 million of term loans and 300 million of revolving commitments, and extending our bank maturities to October 2031. The transaction received approximately 737 million of lender commitments, allowing us to upsize the facility from the targeted 500 million at launch to 600 million at close. We're grateful for the support we received from all of our lending partners. When compared to our prior credit agreement, the new facilities meaningfully reduced our required debt service by approximately 17 million in the first year, further supporting free cash flow generation. As part of the refinancing, we repurchased 40 million of the 72 million convertible notes due 2029, paying approximately 21 million in cash and issuing approximately 2.4 million shares. In addition, we extended the maturity of the remaining 32 million of the convertible notes due 2029 to January 20th. 2032, eliminating their February 2029 maturity.
As a consequence of the refinancing and the repurchase of the convertible notes, we do expect that our leverage will temporarily increase by about half a turn in the fourth quarter and another quarter to half turn in the first quarter of next year as we pay out our annual incentive compensation to employees and pass tariff refunds through to our customers. So beginning in the second quarter of next year, we expect will once again see meaningful de-levering. Following the close of the refinancing, we had approximately 270 million of unrestricted cash and undrawn revolver commitments under our new beverage solutions credit facilities. compared with approximately 95 million at September 30. This substantially increased liquidity provides us with greater flexibility to operate the business and manage the balance sheet over time. To conclude, we believe our improved earnings, lower capital intensity, and improved balance sheet as a result of the refinancing materially strengthens our financial flexibility as we enter the next phase of Westrock Coffee's growth.
Operator
that we'd be happy to open the line for questions. Thank you. At this time we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Eric Des Lauriers of Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is now open.
分析師問答
Eric Des Lauriers
Great. Thank you for taking my questions, and congrats on the strong quarter and capital raise here. My first question, just kind of focusing on potential use of proceeds with this greater liquidity that you have now. Can you just kind of give us a sense of your strategic priorities here? How should we think about, you know, potential share buybacks, organic investment, M&A, maybe some more paydowns on the balance sheet? Just kind of help us level set how you're thinking about use of proceeds going forward.
Scott Ford
Sure, I think Chris's remarks addressed the short term, you know, over the next two or three quarters, what we've got going out the door. And frankly, beyond that, at this juncture, we are very focused on retaining cash, paying debt down. We want to de-lever the business. We think we have an absolute unbelievable path towards growing an industry-leading business in this space over the next two to three years. And the best way to do that is from a rock-solid balance sheet and not the sketchy one, maybe, that we have been accused of running in times past as we were building from nothing out of our own back pocket. And so I think you would see us be very conservative with the balance sheet deleveraging. Obviously, as I've said on calls before, No business should leave its balance sheet in a position where it can't defend a reasonable stock price for the business.
And this business has not had that capacity in times past. It does now, but frankly, I'd be very surprised if we were so incented as to come out of pocket with money for that this juncture I think we've got a lot of things we can do internally and perhaps externally that don't add to our net leverage position that increase our industry structure position and we think the best way to get to those cards is to continue to delever between now and then.
Eric Des Lauriers
all right that's helpful thank you um and then um two questions as it relates to uh the um EBITDA cadence for 27. One, I think you mentioned, you know, the EBITDA growth will largely be back half, potentially even Q4 weighted. I think you mentioned some contracts that will be ramping towards the end of the year. So just wanted to kind of confirm that. And then also just touch on SG&A. So from a reported basis, looks like that's come down pretty meaningfully for about five or six straight quarters now. I'm just wondering how to think about that going forward and sort of what's been the main driver of that.
Scott Ford
Yes, well, two things on that front. First of all, in the guidance to 27, I believe is what your first question was about, So where we say, rather than be precisely wrong, we're just trying to be generally correct. Plus or minus 130, most of our customers won't finish their allocations until deep in the first quarter for the actual volumes. We have a lot of conversations, but that's a lot of guesswork, because our fiscal year doesn't fall with the same calendar planning year as most of our customers. So that's what most of the back and forth is through this time of year. So we think 130 is plus or minus a good guess right now. And then the point I was trying to make is a number of customers that we have sold in that $60 million pipeline I referenced, they are slated to come on board towards the middle and latter part of next year.
So when we get into late 27, we'll be at a very different annualized run rate than the 130 that we are guessing right now will fall in the fiscal, which our fiscal calendar year. So that's what I was trying to distinguish. What would that be? We're not really sure. think we'll grow something like another 30 to 40% in 28 after 27's number. And I'm trying to get you some understanding of how that falls in 27 so you can understand those numbers.
Thomas Pledger
And then to your SG&A question, if you recall that as the build out of Conway that there were expenses that were, or operating expenses that were added back, a lot of those were captured quarter by quarter in SG&A. As those have rolled off through the add backs and into operating expense, our SG&A comes down. This is the first quarter though, where we don't have any Conway related add-backs. So if you're looking for kind of a level line for SG&A going forward, this quarter would be it. Overall operating expense is flat, which I think is a great proof point to the business that we've built and as we continue to grow, as Scott talked about in 2027, there's not a lot of incremental opex that we need to put on the business in order to be able to produce those volumes, and you should see most of that drop to the bottom line. Awesome. Very helpful answers. I appreciate you taking my question, and congrats again. Hey, thanks a bunch.
Operator
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Chirag Vora of TAG. Your line is now open.
Sarang Vora
Great, thank you guys for taking the question and great profitability. Great to see the Conway making progress. I know you guys gave guidance for next year, so just thinking in terms of free cash flow, the question before, how should we think about CapEx for next year? I know there are some new production lines that you were thinking of starting given the demand from customers, but you have done a great job. this year in bringing down CapEx. So I'm just curious if you can share a little bit color on how we should think about CapEx for next year. in terms of free cash flow generation. Thank you. Absolutely. Thanks, Sarong.
Thomas Pledger
From a CapEx perspective, I think as we talked about, we've reached an inflection point with Conway. The construction part of Conway is complete and now we're into just operating it. Obviously there are going to be opportunities to deploy capital or deploy CapEx for customers. that want to grow with us, and we firmly expect to do that. We've done that this year within the 30 million of CapEx that we forecast. Next year's going to be 30 to 35 million of CapEx as well. And so we can deliver around the customer commitments that we've made and the opportunities that we have to continue to grow the business and deliver the next year's guidance based on the installed capacity that we have, plus some incremental growth capex in order to be able to meet customer needs. But you're not going to see us go back to a time where, you know, CapEx.
CapEx is $50, $60 million. That's not the business we're in right now. So we're going to execute within those parameters.
Sarang Vora
That's great. I had a second question on the margin profile. I know you talked about SG&A being very muted. So fair to assume that majority of this, we will see a massive gross margin expansion over the next year as Conway goes up, right? Because the mix shifts towards higher higher margin than the ground coffee and single service. Is that the right way to think about the growth trajectory on profitability?.
Thomas Pledger
You definitely should see gross margin go up because there's a mix shift. Conway, as we continue to load on volume, Conway continues to be a larger, contributor to the overall EBITDA business, and that is higher margin business than what we have in most of the base business.
Sarang Vora
That's cool. And just a broader question on Conway, you were ramping up from 40 to 80. What has surprised you the most from a customer request standpoint? Anything that surprised you as you ramped up from a production standpoint? Just curious. you can share feedback from customers or something. Thank you. Thank you for taking the time today.
Scott Ford
to hop on. The greatest surprise from Conway has been twofold. Number one, when they come to Conway, they want to go see everything else we do, and we have had a 70 plus percent multiple product sale to our new customers that are coming in. I mean that's ridiculous. We couldn't have imagined we would have seen a reaction like that to Conway. So one of the reasons that our growth this year has been so strong and frankly our growth over the next two years is likely to be as strong again is because of that multi product portfolio that when people come to Conway they see how easy it is to do business with us and then they say well do you also do cups do you also do roast and ground can you do whole bean then you expand your geographic footprint to cover more of our restaurants in a different part of the country etc etc that's been the biggest surprise this The second one is frankly the ultra-filtered milk, high protein, craze that Conway is built and capable of making and the demand for that and the number of brands coming into that space, the number of products that we have under development right now is the greatest number of individual items by a long shot than we've ever had in the house and that includes when we're were building Conway and first turning it on and so we just continue to get and what about and what about this and can you do this and would you take that and prioritizing that and getting the teams lined up to make sure that our customers have a great product development and commercialization and and then an operational delivery and daily customer follow-up. That's the key to executing a low price, high service, quality product formula, but the appetite for it from new and old customers, frankly, has just been far in excess of what we would have hoped for on our best day. And so the challenge is actually delivering against that and that's where we spend all of our time every day. That's great. Good luck. I'll pass it on.
Operator
Thanks, y'all. This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Scott Ford, CEO, for closing remarks.
Scott Ford
Well, thank you very much. I'd like to thank all of you for hopping on the call today. Obviously, we were thrilled with the quarter. We're head down trying to close the year and get ready for the new year. We are thrilled with the credit agreement being behind us. It gives us unbelievable flexibility over the next several years, and we will be very, very good stewards of the liquidity that it gives us. And we appreciate your interest in this business and following us today on this call. So y'all have a great afternoon.
Thanks so much.
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You can now disconnect.
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