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登士柏西諾德 (XRAY) 2026 年第三季法說會:因牙科銷售下滑而下修財測

2026年11月5日 23:39
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登士柏西諾德2026年第三季營收8.36億美元,年減7.6%,調整後EPS從0.42美元降至0.29美元。受牙科業務壓力及歐洲經銷商去化庫存影響,公司下修全年營收至約35億美元,調整後EPS預估為1.20至1.30美元。Wellspect營收創新高,管理階層強調將持續推進「重返成長」計畫與成本管控。

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重點摘要

  • 登士柏西諾德(Dentsply Sirona)公布 2026 年第三季營收為 8.36 億美元,依報告數據年減 7.6%,按固定匯率計算則年減 7.0%,反映其牙科各業務面臨壓力、缺少 Byte 的營收貢獻,以及經銷商計劃性去化庫存的影響。
  • 若排除 Byte、約 1,000 萬美元的經銷商計劃性庫存去化,以及其他個別一次性事件,按固定匯率計算之營收年減 3.8%。
  • 調整後每股盈餘(EPS)從去年同期的 0.42 美元降至 0.29 美元。財報業績包含一筆 3,900 萬美元的稅前會計估計變動利益,該利益與內部公司間庫存利潤相關;管理階層預期未來期間不會再出現類似利益。
  • 該公司目前預估全年營收約為 35 億美元,排除關稅退稅帶來的 0.17 美元一次性收益後,調整後每股盈餘預估為 1.20 至 1.30 美元。先前的預測區間分別為 35 億至 36 億美元,以及 1.40 至 1.50 美元。
  • Wellspect HealthCare 創下單季營收 9,200 萬美元的歷史新高,年增 10%;同時美國 MIS 植牙業務呈現低雙位數成長,且美國根管治療業務自 2025 年第二季以來首度重返成長。
  • 營運現金流從 7,900 萬美元降至 3,200 萬美元,主因是營運資金表現不利。截至季末,淨負債對 EBITDA 比率為 3.4 倍,管理階層表示減少債務仍是資本配置的優先要務。

核心財務數據

指標2026 年第三季年增減幅 / 背景說明
營收8.36 億美元依報告數據年減 7.6%;按固定匯率計算年減 7.0%
調整後實質營收趨勢—排除 Byte、經銷商計劃性庫存去化及其他個別一次性事件後,按固定匯率計算年減 3.8%
調整後毛利率—增加 190 個基點
調整後毛利—減少約 2,000 萬美元
會計估計變動利益稅前 3,900 萬美元多年期庫存轉移調整;不代表第三季的本業營運表現
調整後 EBITDA 利潤率—減少 110 個基點
調整後每股盈餘 (EPS)0.29 美元較 0.42 美元減少 0.13 美元
營運現金流3,200 萬美元自 7,900 萬美元下滑,主因營運資金影響
現金及約當現金1.95 億美元季末餘額
淨負債對 EBITDA 比率3.4 倍減少負債仍是優先要務
股票回購120 萬股年初至今透過回購向股東返還 2,500 萬美元

業務與營運表現

連網技術解決方案(Connected Technology Solutions)銷售額為 2.3 億美元,依報告數據年減 11%。設備與儀器營收呈現高個位數下滑至 1.37 億美元。儀器業務的低個位數成長(包括透過 A-dec 合作關係帶動的美國市場動能),部分抵消了全球影像設備銷量的下滑。

CAD/CAM 營收為 9,300 萬美元。美洲市場銷量下降反映了經銷商計劃性庫存調整的影響。日本市場在口內掃描機與研磨機方面表現強勁,而歐非中東(EMEA)則面臨資本支出疲軟以及低成本競爭對手的價格壓力。

基礎牙科解決方案(Essential Dental Solutions)營收下滑 4% 至 3.43 億美元,主因根管治療器材銷量減少及 EMEA 定價疲弱。美國根管治療業務成長 4%,自 2025 年第二季以來首度恢復成長。預防性產品在 EMEA 與亞太地區(APAC)均實現雙位數成長。

齒顎矯正與植牙解決方案(Orthodontic and Implant Solutions)營收下滑 17% 至 1.71 億美元,其中包括 Byte 帶來的 6 個百分點負面衝擊。植牙營收降至 1.32 億美元,原因是全球高階植體銷量下滑,抵消了 MIS 在美國實現的雙位數成長。SureSmile 營收為 3,900 萬美元,缺少 Byte 銷售額及美國銷量下滑的影響,被 EMEA 地區 8% 的成長部分抵消。

受惠於銷量增加及新產品銷售(尤其是美國市場),Wellspect HealthCare 營收成長 10% 至創紀錄的 9,200 萬美元。管理階層表示,Wellspect 的成長動能預計將持續到 2026 年底並延續至 2027 年,不過該公司尚未提供正式的 2027 年財測指引。

登士柏西諾德持續投資於其「重返成長」(Return-to-Growth)計畫。2026 年下半年在北美的臨床教育支出達到前一年同期的六倍,而截至 9 月的研發支出則成長約 20%。該公司同時也透過轉型辦公室,力求在 2026 年實現約 1.2 億美元的成本節省。

管理階層財測指引

登士柏西諾德目前預估 2026 全年營收約為 35 億美元,相較之下先前的預測區間為 35 億至 36 億美元。

調整後每股盈餘預期為 1.20 至 1.30 美元,低於先前預期的 1.40 至 1.50 美元區間,且排除關稅退稅帶來的 0.17 美元一次性收益。下修後的指引已計入 3,900 萬美元的稅前會計估計變動利益,約相當於稅後 3,000 萬美元。

管理階層將每股盈餘指引下修的原因中約四分之三歸咎於 EMEA 表現不如預期以及中東衝突。不利的稅率與策略性投資則構成了其餘部分,並由成本管理措施以及與庫存相關的會計利益部分抵消。

針對第四季,管理階層表示若特定市場有所改善且產品組合更為有利,更新後的預測區間將可達成。該公司亦預期第四季資本設備通常具備的傳統旺季動能,將有助於推動季對季的改善。

管理階層未提供具體的 2027 年財測指引。該公司目前正在制定「重返成長」計畫的下一階段,並預計在內部進一步規劃及董事會討論後完善其展望。

風險與後續關注焦點

  • 牙科整體業務量持續承壓,客戶在資本支出上保持謹慎抑制了設備採購,同時對可負擔性的擔憂也影響了自費選擇性手術的需求。
  • EMEA 業績受到經銷商去化庫存、低成本競爭、資本設備需求疲軟,以及中東和東歐部分地區衝突所帶來的干擾影響。
  • 較高的貨運與物流分銷成本持續對獲利能力造成壓力。
  • 這筆 3,900 萬美元的會計估計變動利益預計不會再次發生,且反映的是多年期的調整,而非第三季的實際營運表現。
  • 營運現金流在營運資金狀況不利的情況下持續面臨壓力。
  • 儘管面臨短期業務壓力,管理階層仍持續注資於銷售、臨床教育及研發,從而限制了削減成本抵消營收疲軟的效果。

分析師問答重點

管理階層表示,新擴編的齒科服務組織(DSO)團隊正與多個領域的機構進行洽談。登士柏西諾德打算利用其完備的設備與耗材產品組合來制定客製化的商業方案,但將此機會定調為長期發展。

談及美國市場表現時,執行長 Daniel Scavilla 仍期盼在 2026 年第四季實現微幅正成長,但他坦言該目標深具挑戰性。他表示,業務團隊覆蓋率的提升、自願離職率的降低、臨床教育以及 MIS 客戶轉換速度的加快,正為初期動能提供支撐。

管理階層將美國 MIS 及平價植牙業務的成長,主要歸功於業務團隊擴張、客戶轉換及臨床教育。該公司目標在年底前將 MIS 業務團隊擴大近一倍,同時植牙教育活動已增加超過 60%。

財務長 John Fortson 確認,這筆 3,900 萬美元的稅前庫存會計利益已包含在更新後的指引中。管理階層補充說明,其他一次性抵消項目使預估的淨營運影響降至每股約 0.01 至 0.02 美元。

法說會完整逐字稿


完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2026 Dentsply Sirona Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that this conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to the first speaker today, Suzanne Hatcher, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Suzanne Hatcher

Thank you, Stephanie. Welcome to the Dentsply Sirona Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me for today's call are Dan Scavilla, President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Fortson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. I'd like to remind you that an earnings press release and slide presentation related to the call are available on the Investors section of our website at www.dentsplysirona.com.

Before we begin, please take a moment to read the forward-looking statements in our earnings press release. During today's call, we may make certain forward-looking statements that reflect our current views about future performance and financial results. We base these statements and certain assumptions and expectations on future events that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our most recently filed Form 10-K and any updated information and subsequent Form 10-Q or other SEC filings list with some of the most important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from our predictions.

On today's call, our remarks will be based on non-GAAP financial results. We believe that non-GAAP financial measures offer investors valuable additional insights into our business' financial performance enable the comparison of financial results between periods where certain items may vary independently of business performance and enhanced transparency regard key metrics utilized by management in operating our business. Please refer to our press release for the reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results. Comparisons provided are to the prior year quarter unless otherwise noted. A webcast replay of today's call will be available on the Investors section of the company's website following this call.

And with that, I will now turn the call over to Dan.

Daniel Scavilla

Thank you, Suzanne, and good afternoon, everyone. We continue to advance our Return to Growth action plan in the third quarter. We expanded customer access, strengthened our commercial organization and increased investment in clinical education and innovation. Wellspect HealthCare delivered record sales, and we are seeing green shoots in parts of our U.S. dental business. We are making progress, but our results are not yet where they need to be. Our priority is now turning early gains in the broader sustained improvement through stronger execution.

We now expect full year net sales of approximately $3.5 billion versus the range of $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion previously and adjusted EPS of $1.20 to $1.30 from $1.40 to $1.50, excluding the $0.17 onetime gain from tariff refunds. Additional cost actions have not fully offset business pressures as we continue to invest in our sales force, clinical education and innovation. As stated before, these investments will continue because they are essential to returning to sustainable growth.

Before I turn the call over, John joined us in July and has now completed his first full quarter with Dentsply Sirona. He brings a practical approach to improving performance and has already built close trusted relationships with our teams to strengthen financial visibility and challenge cost. He's an excellent partner and I'm confident he will continue to make significant contribution to Dentsply Sirona.

John, over to you.

John Fortson

Thanks, Dan, and good afternoon, everyone. Since joining Dentsply Sirona, I've met with our teams, distributors and partners to better understand our businesses, financial performance and return to growth opportunities. These discussions have reinforced my confidence in our brands customer relationships and innovation capabilities. We have tangible progress to build on. As Dan shared, Wellspect delivered double-digit record revenue growth this quarter, supported by new products and we saw positive momentum in the U.S. dental business.

We remain diligent on costs in a dynamic environment while investing in our return to growth action plan. We are also strengthening our financial systems and access to detailed data to support better decisions. My priorities are to translate these capabilities into more consistent execution disciplined investment and stronger cash generation. Let's move to Q3 results. Third quarter revenue was $836 million, down 7.6% as reported and 7% in constant currency. The decline reflected continued pressure across our Dental businesses, including the absence of Byte revenue and planned dealer inventory reductions.

Excluding Byte, approximately $10 million of planned dealer inventory reductions and other discrete onetime events, revenue declined 3.8% in constant currency. Turning to profitability. Adjusted gross margin improved 190 basis points year-over-year, while adjusted gross profit declined approximately $20 million. These results included a $39 million benefit from a change in accounting estimate in preparation for the implementation of a new financial consolidation system. More detailed data enabled us to refine our estimate of profit included an inventory transfer between our businesses.

This increased third quarter gross profit and pretax income by approximately $39 million. The benefit reflects a multiyear period rather than third quarter operating performance, and we do not expect a similar benefit in future periods. We will continue to refine and improve our ability to analyze and forecast our business. Lower dental volumes and higher distribution costs weighed on gross profit, partially offset by cost management initiatives and favorable manufacturing absorption.

Adjusted operating expenses increased $3 million year-over-year as we continued to invest in sales, clinical education and R&D to support our return to growth action plan. partially offset by cost management initiatives. Together, these factors resulted in a 110 basis point decline in adjusted EBITDA margin. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.29 in the third quarter, down $0.13 from the prior year quarter. Turning to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $32 million compared with $79 million in the prior year quarter. The decrease was primarily driven by unfavorable working capital.

In the third quarter, we opportunistically repurchased 1.2 million shares. This is the second consecutive quarter where we have executed share repurchases returning $25 million to shareholders through repurchases year-to-date. We finished the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $195 million, and our third quarter net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 3.4. We continue to prioritize debt reduction as a core tenet of our capital allocation strategy. Let's now turn to third quarter segment performance. CTS sales were $230 million, down 11% as reported.

Growth in instruments in EMEA and the Americas and Japan, CAD/CAM partially offset broader equipment headwinds. Equipment and Instruments revenue was $137 million, down high single digits as reported. Instruments grew low single digits, supported by U.S. momentum through our A-dec partnership and 4% growth in [ Integra ] handpieces in EMEA, partially offsetting lower global imaging volumes. CAD/CAM revenue was $93 million as reported, primarily reflecting lower Americas volumes from the planned strategic inventory shift with distributors.

APAC partially offset the decline led by strong intraoral scanner and mill performance in Japan. In EMEA, pricing pressure from lower-cost entrants and softer capital demand weighed on results as uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict led some providers to defer investments. Turning to EDS, which includes endodontic, restorative and preventive products, sales declined 4% as reported to $343 million. primarily driven by lower endodontic volumes and lower pricing in EMEA. Higher Americas volumes led by strong file growth and restorative blocks, partially offset the decline.

U.S. endo returned to growth for the first time since Q2 2025, while preventive grew double digits in EMEA and APAC. OIS revenue was $171 million, down 17% as reported, including a 6% Byte year-over-year negative impact. Implants revenue declined to $132 million as lower global premium implant volumes were partially offset by double-digit U.S. growth in MIS, our value implant brand. In Ortho, SureSmile revenue declined to $39 million, primarily attributable to the absence of Byte sales and lower U.S. volumes.

EMEA growth of 8% partially offset the decline, marking the region's 6th quarter of mid-single-digit or better growth in 7 quarters year-over-year. Wellspect HealthCare revenue increased 10% to $92 million as reported, driven by higher volumes and strong new product sales, particularly [ surety ] in the U.S. market. Wellspect has delivered consistent growth throughout 2026 as investments begun in 2025 drive new products, broader market reach and sustained commercial momentum. Now let's discuss our 2026 outlook.

As Dan shared at the start of the call, we now expect full year net sales of approximately $3.5 billion compared with our previous range of $3.5 billion to $3.6 billion. and adjusted EPS of $1.20 to $1.30 from $1.40 to $1.50, excluding the $0.17 onetime gain from tariff refunds. This revision reflects a prudent response while sustaining investment in sales, clinical education, innovation, areas historically underfunded and that are essential to our future growth. U.S. performance met expectations with momentum building, while Wellspect delivered record quarterly sales.

EMEA distributor inventory reductions, the Middle East conflict and higher freight costs continue to pressure results. Relative to prior EPS guidance, EMEA underperformance in the Middle East conflict accounted for roughly 3/4 of the reduction with an unfavorable tax rate and strategic investments representing the balance. The profit included an inventory benefit and cost management initiatives provided partial offsets. These strategic investments remain central to our return to growth action plan and sustainable long-term growth.

With that, I will turn the call back to Dan.

Daniel Scavilla

Thanks, John. This year, we strengthened our global leadership team and rebuild capabilities essential to our return to growth action plan from sales and dealer coverage to clinical education. We're also bringing greater discipline to product development and simplifying operations. Wellspect U.S. MIS implants in Endo show that focused investment in commercial execution can deliver. Our priority is to build on that progress and drive more consistent performance across the portfolio.

Let me walk through our progress on what comes next. Purchasing decisions remain challenging as customers weigh investments in equipment carefully and affordability influences elective procedures. In the Middle East and parts of Eastern Europe, conflicts continue to add pressure to sales, while Western European dealers are holding less inventory. We expect some recovery over time. Like I said before, we cannot count on the market to do this for us. We need to execute better, building on our strong brands, relevant products and long-standing customer relationships to earn more business.

U.S. remains a top focus, and we are encouraged by the green shoots we are seeing. Our focus now is turning that early progress into broader sustained improvements. In the U.S., we have aligned our commercial teams around customer needs and established a dedicated sales training team. All premium implant reps have completed certification and the MIS team is expected to complete training and be certified by the end of this month. Recruitment and retention have improved significantly, with our ability to attract talent adding stability to our commercial teams.

Quota carrying field vacancies are now in the mid-single digits, down from more than 20% in prior years and voluntary sales rep attrition has declined substantially. More consistent coverage helps us deepen customer relationships and follow through on their needs. MIS offers an early example of our progress. MIS sales grew double digits in Q3, with customer conversions accelerating sharply in September. Overall, value implant sales grew more than 7% year-over-year. To build on this momentum, we aim to nearly double the MIS sales force by year-end.

Implant education also increased more than 60%, supporting broader customer adoption. We're seeing early returns in Endo as well with U.S. sales up 4% in the quarter. With 7 new distribution agreements signed year-to-date, we have largely completed our North American dealer expansion efforts. We are now focused on activating that network through training, joint customer visits, demonstrations and installation support. A simpler incentive structure and inventory model also make it easier for our distributors to work with us.

Engagement at our recent DS World events reinforce the opportunity to expand customer access and grow with these partners. We're also strengthening enterprise sales with a sharper focus on DSOs. We've built out a new team to expand on this opportunity and develop action plans to gain share in these markets. Clinical education essential to this effort. After redesigning our U.S. programs in the first half, we're executing in the second half, giving more clinicians hands-on experience with our products and workflows.

Our second half 2026 clinical education investment in North America is 6x greater than last year's level, including more than 160 endo courses and expanded hands-on programs. We are broadening access to education centers, universities and industry events complemented by lectures and virtual learning. Clinician participation is high and demand remains strong. At our recent DS World events globally, we increased workshops, lectures and hands-on continuing education courses by more than 60% versus last year.

Like I said before, the value of clinical education builds over time. We are helping clinicians become more confident, consistent users of our products with our commercial teams following through to support adoption. We're also bringing customer perspectives directly into our decisions through our KOL advisory boards. These candid discussions with small groups of clinicians and dental professionals, help us understand their needs, sharpen innovation priorities, and identifying where we can be better partners.

In turn, we're able to create more awareness of a holistic view of Dentsply Sirona's portfolio strengths and workflow benefits. We began with implant clinicians and recently met with dental laboratory leaders, EDS and CTS discussions are planned by year-end. Together with daily feedback from our field teams, these insights help shape product development, education and service. Dentsply Sirona innovation remains a priority, supported by greater discipline in how we invest. As planned, R&D spend increased approximately 20% through September compared with last year.

Our teams have established a new product development process to strengthen our innovation engine, customer needs guide product requirements with clear decision criteria and rigorous stage gate reviews, helping move the strongest ideas forward. Earlier planning for training and clinical education strengthens launch readiness and supports adoptions. At DS World, we introduced Primescan Connect, powered by DS Core, providing our most affordable scanner option with our high-quality Primescan performance. Practices can use an existing compatible PC without a dedicated laptop, installed scanning software were separate scanning licenses, making it easier to enter digital dentistry.

We are bringing key products in our regenerative portfolio back to the market in the U.S. and Canada. Following regulatory approval for OSSIX, a collagen membrane that supports bone regeneration. We also received Canadian approval for [indiscernible], a collagen scaffold that supports bone and soft tissue regeneration with the U.S. clearance expected soon. These milestones reinforce our leadership in advanced dental regeneration and position us to rebuild momentum in the OSSIX business. Wellspect demonstrated the opportunity from focused investments in commercial execution.

Investments in new products and U.S. commercial capabilities are supporting broader market reach and continued growth. Investments increased 15% year-over-year as the business pursues the $7 billion urinary management market. Wellspect builds us surety portfolio through a planned sequence of launches, culminating in the urinary management system alongside female and male external catheters for people managing incontinence at home. [indiscernible] portfolio recently qualified for traditional Medicare coverage expanding access to at home care for eligible patients.

These opportunities support continued investment in the portfolio and commercial capabilities. Alongside our commercial investment, we are reducing cost and complexity, Established earlier this year, the transformation office is advancing our approximately $120 million 2026 savings initiative funding the reset and strengthening cost discipline as our focus shifts from stabilization to value creation. As John discussed, we are resolving legacy matters to sharpen our focus on improving performance.

As disclosed in our Form 10-Q, we entered into a Memorandum of Understanding for a proposed settlement of the 2024 Byte securities litigation. That proposed settlement amount will be covered by our liability insurance policies. Our global leadership team is fully in place with clear priorities and accountability for executing our Return-to-Growth action plan. Early progress in implants, endo and Wellspect give us confidence in the opportunities ahead. The task is now to extend that progress across the portfolio and deliver more consistent results.

There's more work to do but I'm encouraged by the team, the focus and the momentum we are building. Thank you to our employees and to our partners for their commitment. With that, let's open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Allen Lutz of Bank of America.

分析師問答

Allen Lutz

I appreciate all the color so far. Dan, I'll start with you. We've talked over the past couple of quarters about the opportunity to partner with DSOs. And you mentioned that you've now built out a team to capture that DSO opportunity. Can you just update us on the progress there? What are these potential partners looking for? And where do you see an opportunity for X-ray to lean in? And then a quick follow-up for John. Is that $39 million benefit in the quarter included in the updated EPS?

Daniel Scavilla

So I'll go first. We have been putting together a stronger DSO team investing in that and actually engaging with different levels of DSOs over the past several months, gaining traction. The thought there is we have, in the past touted broad scope of our portfolio and putting that out to customers. And we think that, in particular, with DSOs, that can really hit the mark. So depending on what they do, whether they are generalists or specialists, what they're going into equipment or into consumables, we really do know we can come back with a strong proposition. We're currently in several levels of conversations there, working our way through that. But I do think that it is 1 of the long-term potentials that we need to play in to be relevant and grow in the future.

John Fortson

Well, just to answer the second part of that question. Yes, it is included the $30 million because you have to look at it on an after-tax basis, so $39 million is pretax, but it is included in our guidance.

Operator

Our next question is from Elizabeth Anderson of Evercore.

Elizabeth Anderson

I have sort of a 2 parter. One, you obviously, Dan, we're talking about some green shoots. And I think you pointed to sort of some double-digit growth in MIS and value plans more generally. Is that -- could you talk us through sort of is that what you were referring to? And obviously, Wellspect like where are you seeing kind of the different products start to accelerate? And sort of how do you see that as we transition into 2027? And maybe as a corollary to that, can you give us an update on the timing of the inventory destocking going forward?

Daniel Scavilla

I will give that a shot, Elizabeth. So let's start with Wellspect. As you know, we've launched products through this year and they were planned. They tend to be on time so far and they're doing well. It allows us to penetrate into new areas, especially in the U.S. covered also with this Medicare coverage. It's a very promising thing. These are great products. They're getting readily accepted. And so what I'd see is very long. I want to say I see strength in Wellspect continuing through the rest of this year. And I would say, although while we're not giving 2027 guidance, I would expect to see that strength into next year, just given how early we're starting to really get into the U.S.

That said, Wellspect was up and strong in every market that they are in. So a very positive quarter for them throughout the world. I would tell you with, again, U.S. value implants up high single digits, MIS U.S. up low double digits, really related to sales force expansion, account conversion, clinical education as the main driver. There are innovations we are working on to further strengthen that going forward. But again, depending on the timing of some things that we'll talk about in the future, we'll see where that goes that way. Endo is the same way we're talking throughout the script. We've been putting clinical education into Endo and reflecting some of the strength of our products there, and we're seeing a good market reaction with that.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Jeff Johnson of RW Baird.

Jeffrey Johnson

Thanks for those updates on the green shoots in the U.S., Dan. You have talked in the past about potentially getting to a plus sign on the U.S. number. It looks to me like the stacked comps on the Americas, which I know is not a perfect proxy for the U.S., but the stack really kind of stays about the same, and you've been trending down 3% to 4% on an adjusted basis in the Americas the last couple of quarters. So can you swing that number full 4 or 5 points and get to that plus sign in the fourth quarter? How should we think about that?

And then just John a little bit just on that -- on the benefit that you're keeping in the guidance. I've got that at about a $0.14 after-tax benefit. One, is that math about right? I guess you gave the after-tax number, so I can dial that in better if I need to. And two, if it's a multiyear benefit, I guess I'm just a little confused as to why keep it in the $1.20 to $1.30 guidance this year.

Daniel Scavilla

So Jeff, thanks. This is Dan. I'll go first. Like I said at the beginning of the year, I am going for that, looking for like even a 0.1 or 0.2 as we get into the U.S., there's momentum there that make that a possibility. What I'd say is it's a stretch. And if I miss it in the fourth, that means I'll get it in first but we're going for it. it's really a message of we're moving to stabilize once stabilized, we move to grow. So probably not going to back off my aspiration of getting a plus sign by the fourth quarter that way.

John, I'll hand it to you.

John Fortson

Yes. So I mean I already made it clear in the earlier question. It's sort of $39 million pretax, $30 million post tax. So you can kind of do the math for a little bit high, but it's okay. You'll figure it out. Look, why did we include it in the guidance? At the end of the day, we are in a process of improving how we analyze and forecast this company. So we are implementing new consolidation systems, and we're looking hard it's sort of the FP&A function of our company, right? And you're going to find and we have adjustments that come through there. So it just so happens to be that this is a positive adjustment, but it's -- we had to book it this quarter, and we think it's appropriate to do that. You can make your own judgment as to how you want to look at it with regards to our operating EPS.

Daniel Scavilla

Yes, something I'll tell you, Jeff, to consider building on as well, while we call it out because of it occurring in this quarter, I also want to make sure that it's clear. It's not a stand-alone event, meaning that it is a favorable we're calling out. We continue through John and the team to clean up several things, and there are several other offsets to that number. If you actually netted those out operationally, you may have a net of $0.01 or $0.02 is really where I would put that. So we're just calling it out for its uniqueness. There's other things that we have continued through the year to clean up and do. And again, I just want to make sure we understand it's not a stand-alone event, but we're just calling it out given its size there are offsetting onetime events pre down to negligible.

Operator

Our next question comes from Lily Lozada of JPMorgan.

Lilia-Celine Lozada

Great. You made some comments earlier this quarter about return to growth in 2027. So I'm hoping you can share the latest in light of today's update I know you're not giving guidance just yet. But generally, what are the themes, headwinds, tailwinds we should be keeping in mind for next year and is flat on the top and bottom line in still an okay way to think about it?

Daniel Scavilla

Yes. Lily. I like how you're trying to tease out that '27 from me but I'll go along with you on that. I did say that out at the conference, I don't really have better data just yet because we're only just beginning to look at it over the next 2 months. And in particular, we're really coming up with the next chapters of the return to growth plan that are fairly significant in what we plan to do. I'm happy with where we are so far this year and what's taking root. We're moving into the next phase. There will be a lot of moving parts. So what I would tell you is we really do need the next 1 or 2 months to finish those out align with our Board and then come forward with kind of how we'll reveal this to the market. So I'm going to shy away from giving you anything specific other than what I said on stage, I would stick with that for now and let us get through this work. And when we have better data, we can share it with you as we enter into next year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Michael Cherny of Leerink Partners.

Unknown Analyst

This is Leah on for Mike Cherny. I was wondering if you could help us bridge from 3Q to 4Q earnings based on the implied updated outlook, especially looking through the inventory benefit this quarter. and maybe what some of the puts and takes are to consider and how much visibility you have into 4Q.

John Fortson

Yes. I mean, look, -- you obviously can do the math to figure out what we have to achieve in Q4 to stay in the range that we talked about, right? I think when you work your way through it, you'll realize that it's fairly doable assuming that we get certain upticks in some of our markets, and we have a little bit of what I would call mix shift because some of our products are obviously more profitable than others, right? So as you see us improve and stabilize some of the equipment businesses and normally, the fourth quarter is a pretty good capital equipment quarter, you're going to see some improvement from there. and we feel comfortable with as that we've given you guys.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Okay. That will conclude the question-and-answer session. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.

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