Aemetis (AMTX) 2026年第三季法說會：淨利520萬美元與45Z成長

重點摘要

• Aemetis 公布 2026 年第三季營收為 8,820 萬美元，較 2025 年第三季的 5,920 萬美元成長 49%，主要受加州乙醇與酪農再生天然氣（RNG）業務成長帶動，其中包含第 45Z 條稅收抵免營收。
• 淨利達 520 萬美元，或基本每股盈餘 0.07 美元，去年同期則為淨虧損 2,370 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 由負 500 萬美元改善至 2,480 萬美元。
• 第 45Z 條營收總計 2,470 萬美元，包含來自酪農再生天然氣的 2,010 萬美元與來自加州乙醇的 460 萬美元。該總額包含 2026 年上半年的 1,100 萬美元累計追溯調整。
• 七項已獲核准的加州低碳燃料標準（LCFS）路徑，平均碳強度得分為負 380。管理階層表示，另有六項路徑即將獲得加州空氣資源委員會（CARB）核准。
• 管理階層預期機械蒸汽再壓縮（MVR）專案將對 2027 年業績做出貢獻，在完成建設與試車運轉後，較大的財務效益可能出現在下半年。
• 隨著該公司印度子公司恢復在 1,700 萬美元配額下的交付，印度生質柴油銷售額從 2026 年第二季的 250 萬美元反彈至 730 萬美元。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

酪農再生天然氣

Aemetis 營運 14 座厭氧消化槽，透過長達 36 英里的管線連接其 RNG 生產設施與公用事業燃氣系統，為 17 家酪農場提供服務。超過 50 家酪農場已簽署參與協議。另有兩座消化槽已於 10 月完工，且已收到後續規劃中 13 座消化槽的淨化與壓縮設備。

酪農 RNG 的每 MMBtu 可透過天然氣分子、LCFS 抵免額、聯邦 D3 RIN 以及第 45Z 條生產稅收抵免產生收益。管理階層表示，更新後的 45ZCF-GREET 模型使酪農 RNG 在 2026 年未計銷售折扣與交易成本前的稅收抵免價值約為每 MMBtu 62 美元，相比之下，7 月出售的抵免額為每 MMBtu 15.20 美元。

產量已超出公司先前的假設。管理階層表示，每頭等效泌乳牛的產出接近 15 MMBtu，高於最初模型預估的約 13 MMBtu，儘管在較冷的月份產量會出現季節性下滑。

加州乙醇

機械蒸汽再壓縮專案旨在將 Keyes 工廠的天然氣消耗量減少約 80%。管理階層估計，能源成本的降低以及更高的 LCFS 和 45Z 價值，每年可增加約 3,200 萬美元的現金流，相當於平準化基礎上每加侖約 0.50 美元的額外利潤率。

施工進度已推進至基礎工程與安裝六台 3,500 馬力的渦輪風機。變壓器預計於下個月內運抵。該專案已獲得約 1,970 萬美元的補助款與第 48C 條稅收抵免。

Aemetis 還安裝了三套規劃中的玉米油分離裝置中的兩套。第三套預計於 12 月開始運作。管理階層預期，這三套裝置將使玉米油產量較 2026 年第一季水準增加約一倍。

印度生質燃料

2026 年第三季期間已恢復向印度石油行銷公司交付生質柴油。Aemetis 亦正爭取印度與歐洲的核准以將生質柴油出口至歐洲，管理階層預期核准程序將於 2026 年第四季完成。

該公司表示，其出口導向型單位不會面臨正式的出口上限，理論上可以出口其全部 8,000 萬加侖的產能。實際限制將包括原料進口與對外生質柴油物流。Aemetis 將視市場情況，持續為 Universal Biofuels 少數股權的潛在公開發行做準備。

管理階層展望

• MVR 的建設預計將於 2027 年第一季末左右完成，不過管理階層將 2027 年上半年定為更寬泛的時間表，因為天氣、零件供應情況與試車運轉可能會影響進度。
• 天然氣成本效益應在 MVR 系統啟動後不久便開始顯現。管理階層預期在試車運轉及營運穩定後，2027 年下半年將帶來更大的整體財務貢獻。
• 第三套玉米油分離裝置預計於 2026 年 12 月投入運作。
• Aemetis 酪農 RNG 加氣站預計於 2026 年 11 月開始向卡車車隊供氣。
• 另有六項 LCFS 路徑正在進行 CARB 審查。獲核准的路徑將包含慣例的追溯調整。
• 管理階層預期將於 2026 年第四季取得印度與歐盟的出口許可，隨後將銷售給新加坡和歐洲的貿易商，而非簽署長期承購協議。
• 接下來 13 套酪農 RNG 系統的部署取決於目前正在進行的融資能否完成。

風險與關注焦點

• MVR 的完工進度可能受到電氣元件供應吃緊、天氣以及新系統試車運轉所需時間的影響。
• 來自 45Z 抵免額的現金收入可能落後於營收認列。在 MVR 啟動後，還需要更新 LCFS 路徑，這可能會使現金變現遞延至後續季度。
• 由於該公司使用常溫消化槽，酪農 RNG 產量具有季節性，預計在較冷的月份產量會較低。
• 酪農 RNG 網路的擴展取決於能否為下一階段的部署取得融資。
• 嚴酷的冬季天氣可能會擾亂運往加州的玉米與乙醇鐵路運輸，不過管理階層表示，目前的預報並未顯示中西部鐵路存在重大風險。
• 印度生質柴油出口仍取決於政府批准與實際供應鏈限制。

分析師問答亮點

分析師關注 MVR 專案的時程與經濟效益。管理階層表示，該系統應會對 2027 年業績產生影響，啟動後可立即節省天然氣成本，但在試車運轉後的下半年會有更顯著的財務貢獻。

關於 45Z 的貨幣化變現，管理階層表示，目前營收是隨著抵免額的產生按季認列，但現金收取可能會發生在後續期間。公司通常以約 15% 的全包折扣來建模，涵蓋買方、保險、經紀人及法律費用。

關於乙醇利潤率，管理階層指出幾項潛在驅動因素：來自 MVR 經濟效益的每加侖約 0.50 美元、更高的 LCFS 抵免額價格、玉米油產量增加，以及與加州計畫自 2027 年 1 月 1 日起全年實施 E15 相關的額外乙醇需求。

在酪農 RNG 擴展方面，管理階層表示，額外 13 個專案的設備已到位，但部署步調取決於融資是否完成。在印度方面，該公司預計透過現有的貿易商與供應鏈關係銷售生質柴油，而非簽署長期承購合約。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Aemetis Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

Joining us on today's call are Eric McAfee, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer; and Andy Foster, President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels.

I will now turn the call over to Todd Waltz.

Todd Waltz

Thank you, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the call, we'll be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. We will also refer to adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure. A reconciliation to the most recently comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release.

Before reviewing detail, I want to highlight that the company posted net income of $5.2 million or $0.07 per basic share in the third quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million. For the third quarter of 2026, revenues grew 49% to $88.2 million compared with $59.2 million in the third quarter of 2025, with growth in both the California Ethanol and Dairy Renewable Natural Gas operating segments from both operations and 45Z clean fuel production tax credits.

Section 45Z production tax credit revenue was $24.7 million in the quarter, comprised of $20.1 million from Dairy Renewable Natural Gas and $4.6 million from California Ethanol. 45Z revenue included an $11 million cumulative true-up for the first and second quarter of 2026 from the regulatory updates to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Biodiesel sales in the third quarter were $7.3 million, rebounding from $2.5 million in the second quarter as delivery to three India oil marketing companies resumed under a $17 million allocation to our India subsidiary.

Operating income was $20.9 million in the third quarter, an improvement of $29.4 million compared to the third quarter of 2025, which had an operating loss of $8.5 million. Net income was $5.2 million, equal to $0.07 per basic share, an improvement of $29 million compared to a $23.7 million loss in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $24.8 million in the third quarter, an increase of $29.8 million compared to the negative $5 million in the third quarter of 2025. For the first 9 months of 2026, adjusted EBITDA was $33.2 million compared with negative $21.5 million during the same period of 2025. Cash at quarter end was $3.4 million.

In September, we received $22.4 million from the sale of Section 45Z production tax credits. In August, Aemetis Biogas amended its Series A Preferred Unit Agreement to extend the redemption date to December 31, 2026 and to reduce the interest rate on the credit agreement that would apply if the units are not redeemed to the greater of prime plus 5% or 12%. Capital investments supporting our energy efficiency projects and investments in biogas production were $20.2 million in the third quarter and $35.3 million for the first 9 months of 2026.

With that overview, I'll turn the call over to Eric McAfee.

Eric McAfee

Thanks, Todd. Let's highlight 3 key takeaways from the third quarter. First, Q3 continues the financial inflection points we noted during the Q2 earnings call with the posting of net income of $5.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million during the third quarter. We continue to grow with consolidated revenue up 49% year-over-year, an improvement in operating income of $29.4 million and increased adjusted EBITDA by $29.8 million compared to the third quarter of 2025.

Second, we now generate higher revenues due to the California Air Resources Board approval about a year ago, of 7 new Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways for our renewable natural gas business at an average carbon intensity score of negative 380 compared with the negative 150 default carbon intensity score for these digesters, which was shown in Q2 2025 revenue. The approval of 7 biogas digesters has been providing additional revenue with a higher LCFS value each quarter since Q3 2025, and additional biogas digester pathways are nearing approval. These LCFS pathway approvals substantially expand the LCFS credit generation per MMBtu of RNG produced and will continue to drive meaningful revenue increases as we scale production. And third, our capital projects are advancing with $20.2 million of investment during the quarter.

Let's review these projects and how we continue to create value as federal and state laws are being implemented. In our Dairy Renewable Natural Gas business, every MMBtu of dairy RNG generates 4 revenue streams: the natural gas molecule, a California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit that is sold to oil companies, a Federal D3 RIN that is also sold to oil companies and a Section 45Z production tax credit.

The LCFS credit and the 45Z tax credit are calculated using the carbon intensity of our biofuel. So credits are generated in proportion to how far below the standard a biofuel is scored. An LCFS pathway at negative 380 generates substantially more credit per MMBtu than the negative 150 default score. We have 7 approved California LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 carbon intensity with 6 more pathways nearing approval by CARB.

For the 45Z production tax credit, the Department of Energy issued its updated 45ZCF-GREET model on September 8 of this year, which decreased the carbon intensity scores used to calculate 45Z credits for dairy RNG. The credits we sold in July were valued at $15.20 per MMBtu. The credits we sold in September generated from ethanol and RNG production during 2026, represented a tax credit value of approximately $62 per MMBtu for dairy RNG and $0.33 per gallon of ethanol for 2026 before sales discounts and transaction costs. We received $22.4 million from the September 45Z tax credit sale, and our third quarter results included an approximately $11 million cumulative true-up for RNG dispensed in the first half of the year.

As Dairy Renewable Natural Gas volume grows, all 4 revenue streams grow, but the approval of LCFS pathways in California is expected to create significant increases in revenues from the renewable natural gas production. We operate 14 biogas digesters today, taking waste from 17 dairies and transporting biogas through a 36-mile pipeline to our RNG production facility that is connected to the utility gas pipeline. We have more than 50 dairies that have signed participation agreements. Two new methane capture digesters were completed last month, and we have received 13 additional cleanup and compression units that will be located at the next 13 digesters to come online.

Regarding our California Ethanol business, we have two projects that are slated to significantly improve our financial performance in addition to further improvements in 45Z values and expected increases in LCFS credit prices. Our mechanical vapor recompression system installation is an energy efficiency project that is expected to add approximately $32 million in annual cash flow from 3 positive impacts on our operations. We will reduce about 80% of the natural gas needed for our operations at the Keyes ethanol plant, which is a direct cost reduction that begins at commissioning. Removing fossil natural gas lowers the carbon intensity of our ethanol, which raises the value of the 45Z credit and the LCFS credit generated by every gallon of ethanol.

The MVR project is making excellent progress. Key equipment arrived this summer, and we have completed major steps in construction of the system, including placement of the six 3,500-horsepower turbofans. Foundation concrete has been completed, and electricity transformers are scheduled to arrive in the next month. The MVR project has been awarded approximately $19.7 million in grants and Section 48C tax credits from the California Energy Commission, Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the IRS.

Second, in the past few months, we have installed two of the planned three corn oil separation units at the ethanol plant, with the third unit slated to be operating by the end of this year. Distillers corn oil is recovered from the ethanol process and sold as a low-carbon feedstock into the renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets, where demand has strengthened this year with higher federal renewable volume obligations issued by the federal EPA. Combined, the units are expected to approximately double corn oil production compared to our first quarter production rate, and prices have increased significantly this year.

Our India biofuels business shipped biodiesel to oil marketing companies and commercial customers during Q3 2026. Biodiesel sales rebounded to $7.3 million as we delivered biodiesel to the oil marketing companies under their new tender. We're also building our base of private commercial customers due to increases in the price of India petroleum diesel this year. And we have applied to the India and EU governments for approval to export biodiesel to Europe. India's stated goal is to raise biodiesel blending from less than 1% today to 5% by 2030, which would create about 1.2 billion gallons of additional biodiesel consumption. We continue to prepare documentation for a potential public offering of a minority stake in Universal Biofuels, our subsidiary, subject to market conditions.

Of the milestones we outlined last quarter, the 2 new dairy digesters are now operating, and the Department of Energy has issued the dairy RNG update to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Our outlook on short-term milestones and timing is the third corn oil unit is scheduled to be operational in December, doubling corn oil production over Q1 2026. The Aemetis Dairy RNG fuel station is scheduled to begin RNG deliveries to truck fleets this month.

MVR construction is progressing toward completion. Additional LCFS pathways are moving through CARB with the customary look back on approval, and India deliveries across the current allocation period with a focus on exports to Europe after receiving our government approvals.

Thank you to our shareholders, analysts and our partners for your continued support.

Operator, let's take some questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Amit Dayal from H.C. Wainwright.

分析師問答

Amit Dayal

So Eric, congrats on pretty solid results and cash flows this quarter. Just going to the MVR, it looks like all the equipment is in place, the work is underway. The benefits from this, should we expect that to come through in 2027 financials or 2028 financials?

Eric McAfee

For the MVR?

Amit Dayal

Yes.

Eric McAfee

Those are 2027 financials for sure. I mean, we should say for sure. We should say we fully expect delivery in early 2027 as we are completing construction. And the milestones we've stated for the foundations, placing the units, we have extensive construction going on.

Andy, do you want to give us an update?

Andrew Foster

Yes, I would say the system, we're making good progress on construction. As you can imagine, with the demand for materials for data centers, in particular, is creating kind of a crunch on some of the electric components, but I think we're pretty well lined up with that. So our estimate right now is that we'll have the project completed by the end of the first quarter. I say that loosely, we're saying kind of the first half, but who knows Super El Nino and some other things that could play into that. But we're making good progress and expect, hopefully, by March, we'll be completed with construction.

Commissioning will take some time. It's a new system. And so I would say in terms of financial impact, you're probably going to see it more in the second half of next year than you will in the first half of next year because we'll be completing construction, sort of commissioning the system, getting it up and running, and then we'll start to see that impact. The natural gas impact will happen pretty quickly, though, because once we switch over to the MVR system, we won't be drawing down the 3,700 MMBtus that we're currently using daily. So we'll start to see a financial impact almost immediately on the gas side. But as far as getting things lined out, it will probably take a month or 2 to get that system lined out and then be really kind of cranking it by the second half of the year.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just as a follow-up to that, guys, just for like how -- there was an audit process, et cetera, and there was a little bit of lag between when the credits are being generated versus monetized. Should we expect something similar for MVR to play out as well? Or would that be a little bit different?

Eric McAfee

Our revenue recognition for 45Z revenue is now quarterly. So we would potentially have receivables at the end of the month that are non-monetized 45Zs, which will have a tendency to line up the quarter in which we generate the production, generate 45Z. The cash, however, may be deferred into further later quarters. The initial start-up of 45Z in the first half of 2027 is by necessity going to require us to have a new LCFS pathway update. That will cause us to, as Andy said, push much of the cash into the second half of the year. But we're going to try to accrue revenue as it's generated and for things that are not investment tax credits, it should show up in the quarter in which they're generated.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just last one, I guess. This India biodiesel to Europe sounds very interesting. How long could this approval process take? And would you be capped at what portion of that capacity can be exported?

Eric McAfee

The approvals are largely in process. We do expect them to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year. And we have not a cap on export. It's called an export-oriented unit. So in theory, we could send our entire 80 million gallons of capacity to foreign shores. We have just practical execution of inbound shipments of feedstock and outbound shipments of biodiesel that will be larger constraints on the amount we ship. But we will have an operational cap.

Amit Dayal

And then as a part of this, can we maybe expect some announcement around an offtaker for this volume?

Eric McAfee

Probably not an offtaker. We've done this before. We used to be the largest biodiesel supplier to Europe from India until Europe changed their rules. Now they've changed their rules again. And so India has again started shipping to Europe. There's roughly half a dozen suppliers that have started this business over the last year or so. And so we are cooperating with existing suppliers. I think this is one of the strengths of the business. It will be importing feedstock together, and we'll be exporting to the same customers in Europe. I do not expect to do it on a long-term offtake arrangement. I think we'll just be doing a supply chain sales to traders out of Singapore and Europe.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Derrick Whitfield from Stifel.

Derrick Whitfield

I wanted to start with ethanol. Arguably, the quarter, while strong, still doesn't reflect the full value of where your ethanol margins could grow over time. With that said, could you provide just a walk-through on where margins currently sit per gallon and where you expect them to be post MVR CO2 use and the benefit of potentially lower CI corn?

Eric McAfee

The MVR is projected to generate about $32 million on a levelized basis annually from decreased cost of natural gas and increased LCFS and 45Z revenue. That comes in at roughly $0.50 a gallon of additional margin, and that is in cash. So that's a significant sustainable competitive advantage that we will have. I believe we're the first installer of MVRs in this cycle. I think ADM might have had one at some point or something, but I think we'll be the first one in the country. And what's unique about our plant is that we're located on the California electricity grid, which has a very diligent commitment to getting to zero carbon intensity.

So as the grid decarbonizes in California using more solar, wind and hydroelectric, that directly will improve our CI score. So tapping into that decarbonized grid is an advantage we have here in California that not all states provide. So the MVR is a uniquely energy-efficient implementation in our particular plant. We also have the impact of E15. We didn't talk about E15 on this call, but California is the first state in the country to adopt year-round E15 at the state level. As you know, California is the only state can set its own fuel rules. And so the Senate Bill 795 recently passed and has implementations slated for January 1, 2027. That will be additional capacity requirements about equal to 10 of our plants.

So somebody across the country has to either build a new plant or expand their existing plants to meet this California capacity requirement. And then nationally, of course, the House has already approved and the Senate is pending approval of E15. We don't have any particular projections on when that would happen. But certainly, the recent political events would support biofuels and rural areas. So we think that E15 has some strength in it. That is our underlying margin. The last time we actually had support for the national demand for ethanol, we made $40 million of positive cash flow. So in the actual molecule, this business should be a $0.50 or more per gallon molecule.

And then lastly is the LCFS credit price, even generating the same number of credits. Last year, we only got $42 per credit. Now we're at $90. The cap is $275 this year. There's a long way to run. And the LCFS credits have continued to be not produced at the rate necessary to meet compliance. So there's a deficit. And there's over 10 million credits that disappeared out of the excess bank over the last 12 months. We expect that to continue, and there should be theoretically no excess inventory of credits within the next 24 months. So we are going to benefit from that. Our revenue goes up even with the same number of gallons. So we have a number of significant drivers.

Last point I want to make is we haven't talked much about corn oil, but corn oil is the most attractive, lowest emission rate feedstock for renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel. It only has a 10 emissions rate. Tallow is 18 to 20, UCO is 20 to 25, soybeans is 30. So the use of distillers corn oil as renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel feedstock should really be a top priority for all those producers, and we are the largest producer to source corn oil in California. And through Andy's team's implementation of 2 of 3, but by the end of this quarter, we'll have 3 operating units separating corn oil. We'll be doubling our corn oil production at a time where the price is roughly doubled. So that's a very promising additional margin for the business. It's, of course, very sustainable.

Derrick Whitfield

Great. And Eric, maybe just touching on the point that you kind of highlighted there on policy. Biofuels generally tends to be supported by both Democrats and Republicans, but given what we've seen with the change, given the Democratic sweep, I mean, are you expecting any changes or anything that might have occurred in California that was a surprise? And anything that you could offer us color as to how you see policy coming together at both the federal and state level would be appreciated.

Eric McAfee

I would say that generally, the rural areas and farmers played an outsized role in this election. And I think we have Democrats now as governors in Iowa and senators from Texas that are Democrats, but that are being voted into play in these rural states, and that's always good for corn and soybeans, which is good for ethanol. Really, the only growth market for corn is E15 ethanol. So the initiative we're looking for, I think, will be supported.

A second factor, and I'll make this very brief, is we're going to have a Congress that really can't get things through the White House and the White House that really can't get things through Congress, which is very, very good for the biofuels business. Stability in policy is just tremendously supportive of our financing efforts, our growth efforts. It is really a wonderful situation we find ourselves where we don't have to worry about Congress coming up with an idea and immediately implementing it. It's probably the opposite of what investors are thinking, but I can tell you, as operators of this business, we are looking forward to the stability in policy, which we should see and supportive policy when it happens.

Derrick Whitfield

And then Eric, one last, if I could. Just on the dairy RNG business. As you look out into next year and the pipeline of farms that you guys have to bring on, what kind of pace would you expect for next year?

Eric McAfee

We have financing in process right now. I think that news is something we'll be reporting here over the next couple of months. And we have 13 long lead time items that we've received very strong support from our vendor to get built. So our ability to deploy those 13 rapidly is certainly in place. We just need the financial closing to accelerate beyond the current pace we have right now.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Dave Storms from Stonegate.

David Storms

I wanted to start maybe with -- when I'm thinking about RNG production, it looks like the last 2 quarters, you were running about 600,000 MMBtus on an annualized basis. I know in the recent release in October, it was also reiterated that the 600,000 should be a good run rate. With the addition again up to the 14, though, how should we be thinking about the out year in terms of MMBtu generation?

Eric McAfee

We have a seasonality directly correlated to the weather. Our technology is a passive solar dairy biogas digester. So the solar component of that means that during the wintertime, there's less solar energy, we don't have as much production. So if you look back over a 6-month span, you're looking back over the summer. And when you analyze from that, yes, 600,000 plus would easily be calculated. I can say, though, that we have performed above expectation.

Andy, do you want to talk about yields and some other things?

Andrew Foster

Yes. So we're -- I mean, I think originally on our models, we had ourselves at about 13 MMBtus per wet cow equivalent, and we're running closer to 15 at this point. So we, I think, run a very efficient operation. And as Eric mentioned, during the summer months, obviously, things crank. Ambient temperature digesters do get impacted seasonally. So as we head into the cooler months, that number probably goes down a little bit. But we have found that our systems are very efficient and our production has exceeded our forecast for the last 2 years. So I would anticipate as we continue to add digesters that, that trend will continue.

David Storms

Understood. That's great commentary. Turning to the 45Z production tax credits. It's mentioned that there's obviously a discount that you receive in the market. With the update to the model, are you starting to see those discounts decrease? Or just maybe any comments you have on the tax credit market, please?

Eric McAfee

Yes. Our observation has been that the production tax credit market has not changed very much. We usually model about a 15% discount all in, including insurance and lawyers and brokers and tax lawyers and more tax lawyers. That's probably more of a discount than we're actually getting, but that's the way we usually model it. And that includes the discount to the buyer.

David Storms

Understood. And then maybe just one more, if I could. Looking out, you mentioned earlier in the call super El Nino. Just any thoughts on the impact that might have on ethanol in the coming 12 to 15 months?

Andrew Foster

It sort of depends on where the weather pattern settles in, but all the forecasts that we've looked at are showing a warmer, drier upper Midwest kind of Plains states, winter. And that's -- generally, when we think about the impact, it's really in transportation, it's in rail, getting the corn to California. If you go back to -- and I don't remember what year it was 2015, somewhere in there, where we had a series of these polar vortexes where the railroads were severely impacted. That's really what we're keeping our eye on.

As far as California goes, we're expecting a lot of rain is what they're saying. Good news is the plant is in an area that doesn't have flooding. So we're equipped to operate the plant in all kinds of conditions. So that's less of a risk for us. I think it's really more around what happens with rail transportation as this system sort of settles in and where it's going to be impacted. Some of the trains do come through the South through Texas. That could be a liability if there's ice storms down there. So at this point, I'd say we're not really worried from the perspective of ongoing operations unless we start seeing major disruption in the rail system in the United States, that could cause some issues.

Eric McAfee

And we happen to have 2 things that come to California that impact our business. Number one is corn. There's 1.7 million dairy cows in California that have to be fed, including corn. So that tends to be a high priority cargo coming to California. In the past, there's been a lot of handwringing and issues, but for some reason, they always seem to get the corn through just the last minute, which is good. The other thing coming to California is ethanol. And with California adopting 15% ethanol, another 600 million gallons, that's coming from California. And a couple of times, the polar vortex has just been this magic moment in which California is very short ethanol and they decide not to bring the ethanol cars through. That's nothing to plan on. It's just something that happens once in a while. And this is -- that would be one of the factors in our business model is does ethanol flow to California at a slower rate because of some track out positions...

Andrew Foster

And I would just add in those scenarios, the railroads tend to prioritize feed over fuel because there's live animals on the other side of it. So if you go back again, when we've had rail disruptions, they typically find a way to prioritize corn because you have whether it's chick poultry or cattle that are being fed and rely upon that, they tend to get prioritization. But again, the way the current weather pattern, at least what we've been looking at is setting up, hopefully, there won't be a big impact from a rail perspective as the Midwest doesn't look to be having a real super cold winter with a lot of precipitation.

Eric McAfee

One other item that I'm sure everybody is looking at is, is corn going to be in short supply and therefore, price increase. The opposite was what the USDA came out with recently, which I think was a bit of a surprise to the market and caused the price of corn to go down quite a bit. So they'll be a little struggling around the idea of is there a lot more corn coming out of South America or even Ukraine or elsewhere than what people expected.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ed Woo from Ascendiant Cap.

Edward Woo

My question is going back to India. You said you guys are preparing still for the IPO, the minority stake due to market conditions. What are the market conditions right now for listings on the India stock market?

Eric McAfee

India stock market has had a tough year. They have had a 5-year run with excellent IPOs. And now they're about to start recovering. The IPO of Jio, the largest cell phone company owned by the family-owned Reliance is sort of a rejuvenation of the India market. One thing that has been resilient in India is retail investors. And the -- it's a socialist country. So 50% of every IPO must be sold to retail, and retail has been very resilient in India. So with the -- what we expect to be, what we plan to be is the start of exports to Europe, that would drive revenues as well as profits out of India operations, and we're excited how that would be lined up in an IPO transaction.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I'll now hand the conference back to Eric McAfee for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Eric McAfee

Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, analysts and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis.

Todd?

Todd Waltz

Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. A written and audio version of this earnings review will be posted to the Investors section of the Aemetis website.

Matthew?

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.