Strategic Education (STRA) 2026年第3季財報電話會議：澳洲業務拖累2027年展望

重點摘要

• 第三季營收為 3.2 億美元，與去年同期大致持平。營業利益下滑 2% 至 5,000 萬美元，營業利益率則下降 30 個基點至 15.7%。
• 在庫藏股買回使流通在外股數減少的支撐下，每股盈餘成長 4% 至 1.69 美元。前九個月自由現金流成長 8% 至 1.37 億美元。
• 教育科技服務 (ETS) 仍為表現最強勁的部門，營收成長 12% 至 4,300 萬美元，營業利益成長 14% 至 1,800 萬美元。Sophia Learning 營收成長 20%。
• 美國高等教育入學人數下滑 1%，但醫療保健領域入學人數成長 9%，佔該部門總入學人數的 54%。學生留存率達到創紀錄的 89.2%。
• 由於國際學生簽證規定收緊打擊需求，澳洲入學人數下滑 9%，營收下降 7%。公司提列了 1.34 億美元的澳洲商譽與無形資產非現金減損。
• 管理階層預期 2027 年合併營收將與 2026 年持平，並計劃進行約 5,000 萬美元的成長性投資，主要針對 ETS、美國醫療保健及澳洲本土市場。

核心財務數據

除非另有說明，管理階層討論的調整後業績均按固定匯率計算，且不計入 1.34 億美元的澳洲資產減損。

業務與營運表現

教育科技服務

Sophia Learning 營收成長 20% 至 2,100 萬美元，平均總訂閱人數增加 22%。管理階層表示，若排除大型企業客戶的週年效應，直接面對消費者 (DTC) 的訂閱成長率仍接近 20%。

Workforce Edge 在本季末擁有 83 份企業合約，涵蓋約 400 萬名員工。透過 Workforce Edge 入學 Strayer 或 Capella 的學生人數增加 4% 至約 4,000 人。

公司計劃在 2027 年加快推動 ETS 產品藍圖。管理階層預期這項支出將支援其五年計劃下更高的營收成長、捍衛 Sophia 的市場地位，並強化 Workforce Edge 的企業客戶獲取能力。

美國高等教育

每位學生平均營收提高抵消了入學人數 1% 的下滑，使該部門營收大致持平。包含持續的成長性投資在內，營業費用增長不到 1%。

醫療保健仍是主要成長驅動力。入學人數成長 9%，佔美國高等教育總入學人數的 54%，高於去年同期的 49%。約 38% 的醫療保健入學人數來自雇主合作夥伴。

與雇主合作相關的學生佔美國高等教育總入學人數的 35%，增加 200 個基點。同時，學生留存率達到 89.2% 的歷史新高。

Capella 考照前護理學理學士以及 Strayer 放射技術應用科學副學士的初期需求超出了管理階層的最初預期。該公司還重點介紹了 Strayer 的執照實用護士文憑以及 Capella 擴大後的執業護士課程組合。

澳洲

管理階層將入學人數下滑完全歸因於國際學生。新簽證核准大幅放緩，部分月份年減高達 80%。針對國際學生轉學的新簽證規定，也實質上關閉了境內轉學市場。

本土需求則更具韌性。本土新生入學人數在第二季與第三季均成長 9%，佔澳洲新生入學人數的近 70%。

Strategic Education 計劃擴建阿得雷德校區、推出更多健康科學課程，並於 2027 年底開設伯斯校區。管理階層表示，其在澳洲的成長資本聚焦於本土市場，而非依賴國際限制措施的放寬。

管理階層財測指引

管理階層表示，2026 全年業績不太可能落在公司的名義展望區間內，因為澳洲的國際學生入學環境在下半年惡化。

針對 2027 年，管理階層提出以下預期：

• 合併營收最有可能與 2026 年持平。
• ETS 預計將實現成長，而美國高等教育在醫療保健強勁表現的帶動下，成長幅度可能較低。
• 澳洲持續的限制措施預計將抵消其他業務的成長。
• 成長性投資預計總計約 5,000 萬美元。
• 2026 年實現的生產力撙節預計將抵消近一半的支出，將營業費用成長率限制在 2%。
• ETS 部門利潤率可能下滑約 300 至 400 個基點，美國高等教育與澳洲部門的利潤率預計受影響較小。
• 澳洲新生入學成長可能在 2027 年下半年轉正，總入學人數成長則有望在 2028 年初跟進。

管理階層表示有信心這些投資可讓公司在 2028 年及以後重返名義成長率。此展望取決於 ETS、美國醫療保健及澳洲本土入學人數的持續強勁表現。

風險與關注事項

• 澳洲國際學生入學人數持續受到簽證核准放緩及轉學要求收緊的限制。
• 澳洲放寬限制措施的時間點與程度仍具不確定性，管理階層並未將本土成長策略建立在此種預期之上。
• 計劃於 2027 年進行的投資，預計在預期的成長效益顯現之前，會先壓低各部門利潤率。
• 非企業合作的美國大學部入學人數仍面臨壓力，但管理階層預期下滑趨勢在 2027 年將有所緩和，並有望在年底達到持平或轉為成長。
• 管理階層正在監控涉及大型語言模型與答案引擎最佳化的學生搜尋行為變化，但表示迄今尚未發現重大不利影響。

分析師問答重點

管理階層預期美國高等教育部門在 2027 年的新生淨入學人數將實現正成長。在醫療保健和證照前課程的支撐下，該部門隨著時間推移有望朝中個位數成長邁進。

在澳洲方面，管理階層表示公司可能正接近正常化的國際學生入學環境，但目前的投資策略是基於本土市場成長，而非監管政策放寬。

關於 Sophia Learning 訂閱人數成長放緩，管理階層將此轉變幾乎完全歸因於與上一期加入的大型企業客戶相比的基期效應。若排除該客戶，直接面對消費者 (DTC) 的訂閱人數成長仍接近 20%。

管理階層還表示，儘管潛在學生搜尋大學院校的方式持續變化，但入學報到率以及相對於顧客終身價值的獲客成本仍接近歷史最佳水準。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Welcome to Strategic Education's Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to Terese Wilke, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Strategic Education. Mrs. Wilke, please go ahead.

Terese Wilke

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Strategic Education's conference call in which we will discuss third quarter 2026 results. With us today are Karl McDonnell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Daniel Jackson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following today's remarks, we will open the call for questions.

Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of assumptions, uncertainties and risks that Strategic Education has identified in today's press release that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Further information about these and other relevant uncertainties may be found in Strategic Education's most recent annual report on Form 10-K, the 10-Q to be filed and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission as well as Strategic Education's future 8-Ks, 10-Qs and 10-Ks. Copies of these filings and the full press release are available for viewing on our website at strategiceducation.com.

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Karl. Karl, please go ahead.

Karl McDonnell

Thank you, Terese, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results reflect continued strength in the parts of SEI where we have been investing for growth, Education Technology Service, our broad employer strategy and our U.S. health care portfolio. The strength in these areas, however, was mostly offset in the third quarter by our Australia segment, where the environment has proved more challenging than we expected.

This morning, I'll briefly review the quarter, and then I'll walk through each of our segments. As I do, I'll discuss the opportunities behind our intent to make 2027 a year of increased growth investments. As always, unless I note otherwise, my comments refer to adjusted results on a constant currency basis, and those results exclude the $134 million noncash impairment of goodwill and intangible assets in Australia that we recorded this quarter and which I will discuss with that segment.

Third quarter revenue was $320 million, essentially flat with the prior year. We did hold operating expense growth to less than 1%, resulting in operating income of $50 million, a 2% decrease, and an operating margin of 15.7%, 30 basis points below the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4% to $1.69, reflecting a lower share count from share repurchases. Through the first 9 months of this year, free cash flow increased 8% to $137 million.

Turning now to our segments. Education Technology Services continued its strong performance. Revenue grew 12% to $43 million. Operating income grew 14% to $18 million and operating margin expanded 80 basis points to 42.5%. Sophia Learning average total subscribers grew 22% and revenue grew 20% to $21 million. Workforce Edge ended the quarter with 83 corporate agreements covering approximately 4 million employees, and enrollments from Workforce Edge into Strayer or Capella grew 4% to roughly 4,000 students.

SEI was recently named to Business Insider's 2027 list of Most Innovative Companies, a recognition that reflects much of the work that is being done within ETS. Given the strong demand across ETS and given our desire to accelerate our product road map to serve that demand, our intent is to increase our growth investments in ETS in 2027. These investments will slightly reduce the ETS segment-level operating margin next year, but will also result in higher revenue growth in our current 5-year plan, defend Sophia's market leadership position and strengthen Workforce Edge's ability to sign new corporate clients.

Turning now to U.S. Higher Education. Total U.S. Higher Education enrollment declined 1% to approximately 84,700 students as growth in employer-affiliated enrollment was offset by lower unaffiliated enrollment. Revenue was essentially flat at $214 million as higher revenue per student offset the enrollment decline. Our productivity initiatives continue to hold operating expense growth to less than 1%, including continued investments in growth. Operating income was $22 million, a 4% decline, and an operating margin of approximately 10%. Student retention reached 89.2%, a new all-time high for U.S. Higher Education.

Our health care portfolio continues to be the strongest source of growth in U.S. Higher Education. Health care enrollment grew 9% in the quarter and now represents 54% of total U.S. Higher Education enrollment, up from 49% a year ago, an increase of 500 basis points over the last year. Health care is also central to our broad employer strategy. Roughly 38% of our health care enrollment comes from employer partners, and employer-affiliated enrollment overall reached 35% of U.S. Higher Education total enrollment, up 200 basis points from the prior year.

We are now extending that portfolio into licensure-track programs. Earlier this year, Capella enrolled the first cohort in its pre-licensure Bachelor of Science in Nursing program and Strayer enrolled its first students in the new Associate of Applied Science in Radiologic Technology. Early demand for both programs has exceeded our initial assumptions. These 2 programs join Strayer's Licensed Practical Nurse Diploma and Capella's expanded Nurse Practitioner portfolio, all aimed at the health care talent our employer partners increasingly need.

To support that demand, we intend to also increase our growth investments in U.S. health care in 2027 with funding for new programs, clinical faculty, expanded clinical and instructional capacity. This will allow programs like pre-licensure nursing and radiologic technology to grow at the pace their demand supports.

Turning to Australia. Total enrollment declined 9% to approximately 17,100 students and revenue declined 7% to $64 million. The Australian team continued to manage costs well with operating expenses down 4%, and operating income was $10 million compared with $12.5 million in the prior year and an operating margin of approximately 16%.

The decline is entirely a function of international enrollment. Over the course of this year, the Australian government restrictions on international students have become materially more severe than we anticipated. New visa approvals for prospective students have slowed sharply, and in some months, declining as much as 80% versus the prior year. And in addition, the government has effectively closed the onshore transfer market by requiring international students already in Australia to obtain a new visa in order to change institutions. Given this environment, we have lowered our near-term growth expectations for the ANZ segment, which resulted in this quarter's $134 million noncash impairment.

Notwithstanding the headwinds on international enrollment, our domestic enrollment continues to fare well. Domestic new enrollment has grown every quarter this year, including 9% in each of the second and third quarters, and domestic students now represent close to 70% of new enrollment in Australia.

The quality of Torrens' academic experience remains strong and has shown significant improvement over the past year. We were pleased to see Torrens University's performance in the 2025 Quality Indicators for Learning and Teaching Student Experience Survey, the most comprehensive national survey of current higher education students in Australia. Torrens achieved widespread momentum across all undergraduate indicators, including a rise to sixth nationally for undergraduate teaching quality, up significantly from 19th the year before. At the post-graduate level, Torrens continues to lead at the top tier of Australian higher education, ranking in the top 4 nationwide for both skills development and peer engagement alongside a seventh place ranking in post-graduate teaching quality.

This performance against national sector benchmarks reinforces Torrens' value proposition and supports student retention and long-term brand equity in industry-aligned education. The quality of Torrens' academic programs, combined with our own success in growing domestic enrollment gives us confidence to increase our growth investments in Australia's domestic market in 2027. We are expanding our existing Adelaide campus and will launch several new health science programs, and we also plan to open a new campus in Perth in late 2027.

Western Australia is the fastest-growing state in the country with population growth 50% higher than the national average. Greater Perth is projected to add more than 0.5 million residents over the next decade, and its economy is concentrated in the sectors where our new programs are focused, namely health care, engineering, construction and defense. Perth will also position Torrens well for international recruitment from Asia when those constraints ease.

Turning now to an update on our outlook versus our notional model. Given our current forecast for the balance of this year and the fact that the international enrollment environment in Australia deteriorated since the first half of the year, it appears unlikely our full year results will fall inside of our notional outlook. In terms of 2027, given that our forward revenue growth is mostly a product of current year enrollment, we think the most likely outcome for consolidated revenue next year is to be flat with this year.

We expect the cost of the growth investments that I have described this morning to be approximately $50 million in 2027. However, the productivity savings achieved this year will offset nearly half of that, such that year-over-year increase in operating expenses will be limited to just 2%. Given that these incremental investments are targeted to support areas of proven strength at SEI, that is our 2 high-growth, high-margin platform businesses, our U.S. health care portfolio and our domestic market growth in Australia, we have a high degree of confidence in their ability to return the company to its notional growth rates in 2028 and beyond.

Regarding capital allocation, in addition to our regular quarterly dividend, we repurchased approximately 347,000 shares during the quarter for a total of $28.5 million. We ended the quarter with $139 million of cash and marketable securities and no debt. And finally, as always, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all of my colleagues here at SEI for their ongoing commitment and support to our students and our corporate partners.

And with that, Victor, we'd be happy to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

分析師問答

Jeffrey Silber

Karl, I really appreciate you giving us some insight into 2027. I was hoping I could just double-click on that a little bit. Is it possible to talk about the different segments? Like, say, overall, you think revenue most likely flat, but could we see growth in ETS offset by declines in the other two? And then from a margin perspective, where do you think you'd have the most impact in terms of declining margins potentially next year?

Karl McDonnell

I think we're going to have -- we're absolutely going to have growth in ETS, Jeff. I suspect we'll have lower growth in U.S. Higher Education, driven by the strength of the health care portfolio that I just described. Overall, that will be offset by the continuation of the restrictions in Australia, although we do expect that with the addition of the Perth campus, the expanded programs in Adelaide, launching several asynchronous online programs throughout Australia, we do expect that new student growth in Australia will be growing year-over-year in the back half of '27.

And just given the headwinds that we've had, it's going to take a few quarters for that to translate into total enrollment growth. So I would expect that probably in the first part of '28. And from a margin standpoint, I would estimate that it could be in the range of 300 to 400 basis points at ETS and a little less than that in U.S. Higher Education and Australia.

Jeffrey Silber

Okay. That's really helpful. I really appreciate that. Moving back to, I guess, the U.S. We had an election earlier this week. I'm not asking you for your crystal ball, but given guys where you're located, you're probably closer to most in terms of what's going on and what potentially could go on. Any changes you're expecting with the changeover in Congress towards Democratic control?

Karl McDonnell

Well, I'd say that in the U.S., we have a high degree of confidence in sort of the regulatory and quality posture of both Strayer and Capella. We try to work constructively with any regulators or members of Congress or the administration regardless of party affiliation, and we look forward to engaging with them once the new Congress is inaugurated in January.

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Alex Paris from Barrington Research.

Alexander Paris

I too appreciate the granular detail by segment and the look at 2027. I just had a question on unaffiliated enrollment. Obviously, it was down 4%. It's actually an improvement from the second quarter by my math, which -- when it was down 5.5%. But it's been down for 8 consecutive quarters now. And you've consistently said you do anticipate returning to mid-single digits at some point, but it's not an area of focus, I get it. I'm wondering, has there been an impact on the funnel from LLM, AI search and so on? And could that be a contributing factor?

Karl McDonnell

Alex, first of all, on unaffiliated enrollment, that's predominantly undergraduate business. It's an area that's important to us, but it's not one of our main strategic priorities in the way that health care is. You're right that the rate of decline moderated in the third quarter. We expect it to continue to moderate throughout 2027, perhaps even reaching breakeven or growth by the end of 2027.

And then in terms of LLM, it's certainly something that we're watching. But we have -- we've been focused on a quality of demand over quantity of demand for going on 2 years now. So we don't peg rate of increase or decrease in any inquiry volume that we're getting as being most important. We're looking at admission yield and sort of the acquisition cost to lifetime value. And both of those are near all-time highs. Obviously, we want to be relevant and favorably represented in any search medium that people are using, including LLMs. So we have a lot of people that are focused on it. But I can't say that we've really seen any adverse impact from it yet.

Alexander Paris

What are you specifically doing to respond to the changes in the way students look at colleges and universities?

Karl McDonnell

It's a multifunction, multidisciplinary set of initiatives that we have. I don't really want to go into details on this call, but we do have a robust set of things that we're doing that we have a pretty high level of confidence will help position us well, not just in LLMs, but frankly, in any search medium that people may use.

Alexander Paris

Obviously, it's important. But again, just to be clear, you've not really seen any material impact from the AEO as opposed to SEO on unaffiliated enrollment?

Karl McDonnell

Yes. Because -- I mean, put yourself in our position, Alex, it would be next to impossible to ascribe any rate of change to LLM or any other single variable. We're happy with the demand that we're getting. In health care, in particular, it's much stronger than what we expected. The growth of those new programs is far ahead of where we expected them to be by as much as a year perhaps. But we're not ignoring it. We have people that are focused on it. We expect that over time, the evolution will become more apparent. I just would say it's very early, and we haven't been able to ascribe any changes to that specifically.

Alexander Paris

Got you. And then my last question quickly on ANZ. I appreciate you are controlling the controllables, campus expansions, new campuses, a focus on domestic. But is there any light at the end of the tunnel with regulatory? Obviously, this has been going on for a couple of years now. And we thought that there'd be an improvement this year because of the lifting of the caps. But by slow rolling the visas, it's had an even more dramatic effect on international enrollment. Any additional color there would be great.

Karl McDonnell

I was a little surprised, frankly, that the transfer requirement to get a new Visa was implemented. That was not something that we anticipated. It is what it is. Eventually, we're going to get to a new normal, a normalized rate of international enrollment. I think we're much closer to that as opposed to being further away from it. And if we continue to grow domestic growth in the high single digits as we're doing or frankly, even in the low double digits when we add the additional capacity in Adelaide and Perth, eventually, that's going to result in new student growth, which, as I said in my prepared remarks, I think could be in the latter half of next year, leading to total enrollment growth in the first part of '28.

And then if we get an easing of these restrictions, which some people in Australia think will happen over the coming several years, then that will just be added sort of enrollment that we'll get. We're not building a strategy around it. We're accepting it for what it is and building all of our growth capital around the domestic market. And given, as I said, the strong performance of Torrens academically in the federal QILT survey, we think we're well positioned to grow our domestic market share.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from the line of Jasper Bibb from Truist Securities.

Jasper Bibb

Apologies if I missed it, but I guess I just wanted to understand how you're thinking about EBIT margin expansion in '26 at this point. I guess, for me, it would be helpful if you could kind of frame 4Q expectations so we have the right jumping off point for all the kind of helpful '27 color you gave on the call.

Karl McDonnell

Jasper, yes, it might be a bad connection. I'm not sure I got the full question. I think it was '26 EBIT margin. Was that your question?

Jasper Bibb

Yes, I apologize. I'm switching to speaker phone now. Hopefully, you can hear me better...

Karl McDonnell

That's much better.

Jasper Bibb

I just wanted to understand kind of 4Q expectations so we have the right jumping off point for kind of all the '27 comments you gave earlier on the call.

Daniel Jackson

Jasper, you talking about margin, right?

Jasper Bibb

Yes, margin or, I mean, revenue, if you have it?

Daniel Jackson

Yes. Well, we don't give revenue -- forward-looking revenue, and -- but we have commented on margin, as you know, relative to the notional model of 200 basis points of expansion. Karl just mentioned that we're well off of that at this point. However, as we said last quarter, when you adjust for the FWO reserve we took in the second quarter, we're actually not too far off of the 200 basis points.

Jasper Bibb

Okay. And then I just maybe wanted to -- if we could spend a little bit more time on just kind of what you're seeing in U.S. Higher Ed right now and kind of how that's informing your expectations for '27? Enrollment is down like a little bit, but I think retention is going up. So I would assume new starts in the U.S. might be down more than enrollment right now. I guess, could you just kind of frame what you're seeing in new starts in the U.S. and how that informs your expectations for next year?

Karl McDonnell

Sure. Well, as I said, health care is very strong, growing almost double digits, 9% in the last quarter. It's well over half of our enrollments now. So we're confident that, that's going to continue to grow. And I suspect the growth rate will increase given the strength of the new pre-licensure programs. The undergraduate unaffiliated has been declining. Part of that is just a function that we've been deploying more of our growth capital into health care and not into undergraduate business. As Alex noted, and I confirm that the decline is moderating. We think it will continue to moderate.

So net of everything that we're seeing, I suspect that we're going to have net positive new student enrollment growth in '27. And the division as a whole will sort of mean revert toward mid-single digits as we work our way through the year.

Jasper Bibb

Okay. That makes sense. Maybe last one for me. The subscriptions at Sophia just slowed a little bit from the second quarter. Is that kind of harder comps? Or have you seen any impact on subs growth or retention from kind of the recent changes you made to the platform over the summer?

Karl McDonnell

It's almost entirely a function of anniversarying that large corporate client that we have. If you excluded that corporate client, direct-to-consumer subscription growth is still close to 20% and growing, holding that growth rate. So it's really a function of the anniversarying of that one client that's quite large.

Operator

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back over to Karl McDonnell, CEO, for closing remarks.

Karl McDonnell

Thank you, everybody. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter results with you in February.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.