MDU資源2026年第三季法說會：巴肯東部取得進展，重申EPS財測指引

重點摘要

• MDU Resources Group Inc. (NYSE: MDU) 公布 2026 年第三季獲利為 1,400 萬美元，即每股盈餘 0.07 美元，相較之下 2025 年第三季為 1,840 萬美元，即每股盈餘 0.09 美元。經調整後獲利為 1,660 萬美元，即每股盈餘 0.08 美元。
• 受新費率、Badger 風力發電廠及零售需求增加的支撐，電力公用事業獲利從 2,150 萬美元增至 2,650 萬美元。零售售電總量成長 9.3%，其中資料中心用電量成長 18.4%。
• 董事會已批准 Bakken East 管線的最終投資決定。預估投資金額縮小至 28 億至 31 億美元，兩個階段預計分別於 2029 年底和 2030 年底投入營運。
• 管理層重申 2026 年每股盈餘 (EPS) 財測目標為 0.93 至 1.00 美元，並維持 6% 至 8% 的長期 EPS 成長目標。
• MDU 已簽署能源服務協議的資料中心負載超過 1 GW，其中約 280 MW 已上線，預計未來幾年將進一步放量。
• 該公司正評估 Bakken East 的融資與合資架構，同時尋求保留多數股權與營運控制權。管理層預計在 2 月的年終財報電話會議上提供更多資訊。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

電力公用事業

電力公用事業獲利從 2,150 萬美元增至 2,650 萬美元。北達科他州、蒙大拿州和懷俄明州的新費率帶來了 710 萬美元的營收，而 Badger 風力發電廠則貢獻了 320 萬美元的獲利。

氣溫偏高推動了所有客戶類別的零售用電量增加。零售售電總量年增 9.3%，其中資料中心用電量成長 18.4%。營業與維護成本上升，以及非合格福利計畫投資回報較低，部分抵消了上述增幅。

天然氣配氣

該部門出現 2,070 萬美元的季節性虧損，相較之下前一年同期虧損為 1,820 萬美元。業績中包括因決定終止奧勒岡州再生天然氣專案開發而產生的 210 萬美元稅後損失。

管理層將該決定歸因於開發成本上升，以及法規變更延遲並減少了該州對再生天然氣的需求。薪資相關成本、利息費用及福利計畫投資回報偏低亦對業績造成壓力，但新費率和零售用量增加抵消了部分影響。

管線業務

管線業務獲利從 1,680 萬美元降至 1,310 萬美元。營業與維護費用增加、Bakken East 顧問費用、儲氣注入量減少以及福利計畫投資回報較弱，被短期運輸合約和已竣工成長型專案的貢獻所部分抵消。

Bakken East 管線全長約 350 英里，設計日輸氣量為 14 億立方英尺。其最終設計採用 42 吋、36 吋與 30 吋管徑，包括四座新加壓站，並在兩處既有設施增加加壓容量。管理層表示，較大管徑的配置應有助於降低加壓需求及客戶的燃料成本。

該公司預計在第四季向聯邦能源管制委員會 (FERC) 提交第 7(c) 條申請案。該公司亦在評估財務與策略投資人，同時計畫保留多數股權與營運控制權。

資料中心需求

MDU 已簽署涵蓋超過 1 GW 資料中心負載的協議，其中包括約 280 MW 已上線的容量。管理層表示，高負載客戶預計將透過合約、電價方案與監管機制承擔其所產生的成本。

自 2023 年以來，該公司在這種成本歸因機制下已向北達科他州客戶退還 4,540 萬美元。MDU 對由公用事業自有的發電設施投資以滿足大負載需求仍持開放態度，但管理層表示，每個專案都必須對股東和客戶雙方均具合理效益。

管理層財測指引

儘管第一季氣候不利，MDU 仍重申其 2026 年每股盈餘財測區間為 0.93 至 1.00 美元。該展望假設在今年剩餘期間維持正常氣候、經濟與營運環境、客戶持續成長、資本計畫順利執行，以及取得有利的監管結果。

管理層亦維持 6% 至 8% 的長期每股盈餘成長目標。該公司並未提供 2027 年財測，並表示下一個年度展望的慣常公布時間為第四季財報電話會議。

MDU 計劃在 EEI 會議後於 11 月下旬發布最新的五年資本支出預測。

風險與關注領域

• Bakken East 預計需要 28 億至 31 億美元的資金，這使得融資架構與潛在合作夥伴的參與成為關鍵變數。
• 該專案仍取決於監管部門的批准、工程執行要求，以及分別於 2029 年底和 2030 年底的分階段投產目標。
• 目前仍有數項費率審查程序待決或可能面臨退款，包括北達科他州和蒙大拿州的臨時電價，以及預定於 12 月 1 日生效的管線費率。
• 第三季營業與維護費用增加對多個業務部門造成影響。
• 與 2025 年第三季相比，非合格福利計畫投資回報較低導致每股盈餘減少約 0.015 美元。
• 「其他」類別淨虧損為 490 萬美元，相較之下前一年同期為 170 萬美元，主要是由於專屬自保保險理賠增加及所得稅費用調整所致。

分析師問答重點

分析師主要聚焦於 Bakken East 融資、專案設計，以及 MDU 參與資料中心相關基礎設施成長的能力。

管理層表示正在積極考量 Bakken East 的所有融資選項，包括財務投資人與策略投資人。該公司意在平衡投資人報酬、外部融資需求以及現有資本計畫的資金供應。預計更多細節將在 2 月的年終電話會議上公布，而非 11 月的資本計畫更新。

專案預估金額縮小至 28 億至 31 億美元，反映在做出最終投資決定後，對於管徑規格、加壓站需求、設備訂單、鋼管廠產能以及承包商規劃的確定性有所提高。

在資料中心方面，管理層表示 MDU 可透過其服務區域內的電力公用事業投資，以及為發電提供服務的管線運輸雙重受益。任何公用事業投資仍將受到成本歸因保護及逐案經濟效益評估的約束。

電話會議全文逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the MDU Resources Group Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Brent Miller, Treasurer of MDU Resources Group. Brent, please go ahead.

Brent Miller

Thank you, Jen, and again, welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Our earnings release and supporting materials for this call are available on our website at mdu.com under the Investors section.

Leading today's call are Nicole Kivisto, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jason Vollmer, Chief Financial Officer of MDU Resources Group.

During today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Please refer to our SEC filings for a discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. We may also refer to certain non-GAAP information. For a reconciliation of any non-GAAP information to the appropriate GAAP metric, please refer to our earnings release.

I'll now turn the call over to Nicole for her prepared remarks. Nicole?

Nicole Kivisto

Thank you, Brent, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today and for your continued interest in MDU Resources. This morning, we reported third quarter 2026 earnings of $14 million or $0.07 per share. Our results reflected solid performance for the underlying businesses, including strong performance at our Electric segment, benefiting from new rates, the Badger Wind Farm and higher retail sales volumes. We are also reporting adjusted earnings to reflect the impact of a couple of items not reflective of ongoing operations. At the Natural Gas Distribution segment, a decision was made to discontinue development of the not landfill renewable natural gas project. And at our Pipeline segment, we incurred advisory costs associated with the Bakken East project that are not eligible to be capitalized as part of the project cost.

Adjusted earnings, absent these items, were $16.6 million or $0.08 per share for the quarter. Jason will provide more detail on the quarterly results later during this call. The most significant milestone this quarter was our Board's positive final investment decision to proceed with WBI Energy's Bakken East Pipeline project. This decision reflects the customer commitments we have secured, our confidence in the strategic importance of the project and our belief in the long-term economic opportunities it creates for MDU Resources, North Dakota and the broader region.

We have narrowed our estimated capital investment range to between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion and finalize the project design, which will include segments of 42-inch, 36-inch and 30-inch diameter pipe. We also expect 4 new compressor stations along the 350-mile route with additional compression at 2 existing facilities on our system.

The project remains designed to transport 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and will be constructed in 2 phases with in-service dates of [ late 2029 ] and late 2030. We are still anticipating a Q4 filing date for our FERC 7C filing and are also actively evaluating financing options, including potential participation of financial and strategic investors, while maintaining our expectation for [ WBI ] to retain majority ownership and operational control. We also continue to see encouraging development activity across our service territory, including data center opportunities and broader infrastructure demand.

As we have discussed previously, our approach to serving data centers and other large load customers is grounded in protecting existing customers while ensuring growth creates value for the communities we serve. We continue to follow the principle of cost causation, customers that create costs are responsible for those costs through contracts, approved tariffs and regulatory mechanisms. This approach allows existing customers to benefit from broader utilization of our system while supporting economic development opportunities within our service territory and results in a reduction to customer bills.

As an example, since 2023, we have returned $45.4 million to our North Dakota customers with this approach. We currently have over 1 gigawatt of data center load signed under [ ESAs ] with approximately 280 megawatts currently online and additional volumes expected to ramp online over the next few years. As I did mention during the quarter, we did make the decision to discontinue development of the not landfill renewable natural gas project in Oregon due to continued increased development costs and changes enacted by rule-making that have shifted the timing and reduced the volume of our need for the renewable natural gas in the state. We believe this decision reflects disciplined capital allocation and a continued focus on investments that are expected to provide the strongest long-term value for customers and stockholders. This decision resulted in the recognition of an after-tax loss of $2.1 million in the quarter.

Now moving on to regulatory matters. In North Dakota, interim electric rates of $26.3 million became effective September 1, subject to [indiscernible]. In Montana, interim electric rates of $10.4 million remain in effect, subject to refund, while the settlement agreement of $10 million is still pending approval. At our Natural Gas Distribution segment, a $12.2 million annual revenue increase was approved in our [ Oregon ] rate case settlement with rates effective October 31. We also filed a Minnesota rate case on October 30, requesting an annual revenue increase of $4.5 million. An interim rate increase request of $3.9 million was also filed and if approved, will be implemented on January 1, 2027. Our Washington multiyear rate case filed in May remains pending before the commission.

At the pipeline segment, rates from the FERC rate case we filed in May will become effective December 1, subject to refund and the outcome of hearing procedures if a settlement with our customers in FERC is not reached. We have made significant progress on the regulatory front and with continued deployment of our capital plan, we believe we will be filing about 3 to 5 rate cases annually.

As we near the end of the year, we have delivered solid underlying business performance, advanced regulatory initiatives executed on a robust capital plan and made a strategic decision to advance the Bakken East project. Despite the negative weather impact in the first quarter, we demonstrated solid performance on a year-to-date basis, [ putting ] us in a position to reaffirm our 2026 earnings per guidance range of $0.93 to $1. This guidance continues to assume normal weather, economic and operating conditions, continued customer growth, successful execution of our capital investment plans, constructive regulatory outcomes for the remainder of the year. Our long-term earnings per share growth objective remains at 6% to 8%.

We remain focused on disciplined execution of our capital program while advancing infrastructure investments that support growing energy demand throughout our service territories. As always, MDU Resources is committed to operating with integrity and with a focus on safety. We remain dedicated to delivering safe, reliable, cost-effective and environmentally responsible energy services while positioning the company for compelling long-term growth.

I will now turn the call over to Jason for the financial update. Jason?

Jason Vollmer

Thank you, Nicole. This morning, we announced third quarter earnings of $14 million or $0.07 per share compared with $18.4 million or $0.09 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted earnings for the quarter totaled $16.6 million or $0.08 per share. Year-to-date earnings were $116.1 million or $0.55 per share compared with $114.1 million or $0.56 per share through the first 9 months of last year. Adjusted year-to-date earnings totaled $119.4 million or $0.57 per share.

We did experience lower returns on nonqualified benefit plan investments when compared to the same quarter last year, which impacted all of our business segments. In total, this reduced earnings by approximately $0.015 per share when compared to the third quarter of 2025. Operating income for the quarter was $47.6 million compared to $39.8 million in the third quarter of 2025. On a year-to-date basis, operating income was $211.2 million compared to $183 million last time -- [ last year ] at the same time. This 10% increase in operating income highlights the strength of our operations and the meaningful impact that our growth projects and positive rate case volumes have had over the last year.

Now let's turn to our individual business segments. Our electric utility reported third quarter earnings of $26.5 million compared with $21.5 million in the third quarter of 2025. The increase was driven by $7.1 million in additional revenue from new rates approved in North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming, $3.2 million earnings from the Badger wind farm investment as well as higher retail sales volumes across all customer classes due to warmer weather. Total retail electric sales volumes increased 9.3% year-over-year and data center sales volumes increased 18.4%. These favorable impacts were partially offset by higher operation and maintenance expense as well as lower returns on nonqualified benefit investments.

Our Natural Gas Distribution segment reported a seasonal loss of $20.7 million compared with a seasonal loss of $18.2 million in the third quarter of 2025. This year-over-year decline reflects higher operation and maintenance expense costs including payroll-related expenses and the $2.1 million after-tax loss related to the not landfill project that Nicole previously discussed. Higher interest expense and lower returns on nonqualified benefit plan investments also contributed to the decrease. These impacts were partially offset by new rates, particularly in Idaho, Washington and higher retail sales volumes across all of our customer classes.

Pipeline segment earned $13.1 million during the quarter compared to $16.8 million in the prior period. Results were impacted by higher operation and maintenance expense, including payer-related and materials costs as well as advisory costs related to the Bakken East project and lower storage injections and lower returns on nonqualified benefit plan investments. These impacts were partially offset by short-term natural gas transportation contracts and contributions from previously completed growth projects. The other category reported a net loss of $4.9 million compared to a net loss of $1.7 million in the third quarter of 2025. The decline was primarily related to higher claims experienced within our captive insurance operations and higher income tax expense associated with adjustments related to the company's annualized effective tax rate. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and ample access to working capital to finance our operations.

That summarizes our financial highlights for the quarter. We appreciate your interest in MDU Resources and would ask that we now open the line for questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of Aidan Kelly with JP Morgan.

分析師問答

Aidan Kelly

Yes. Maybe just to pick up on Bakken East to start the elephant in the room. How are you evaluating the trade-offs between financial [indiscernible] and partnerships as of now? I know you kind of mentioned Sales you look to kind of maintain that majority ownership structure. But just curious how we should think about also like the potential to kind of mitigate external equity needs while kind of preserving the longer-term earnings contribution? Just any kind of in-depth color how you think about the equity portion at this point of time?

Nicole Kivisto

Yes, I'll have Jason go ahead and talk about this. But certainly, we are keeping the options open as we did mention in the script as well as the news release, our parameters are that we want to be the majority owner as well as the operator of the pipeline, but continue to evaluate the financing options.

But Jason, maybe you want to provide additional detail there.

Jason Vollmer

Yes. Certainly, a great question, , and I appreciate the follow-up here. And as we know, high focus items for investors to think about the size of an important project like this for our business. Our base capital plan that we've been working on here in the last -- again, what about data last year in November, we'll probably update that here again towards the end of November on the business, as we look forward here. But we have a sizable amount of capital investment that we are spending on this company, even outside of this Bakken East project. We're extremely excited about the Bakken East project and where this is going to go.

But I think your point on balancing external financing with executing the existing business plans here is very important. So as we look at longer term, what this project will do for the organization, certainly a positive project to bring into the group. We want to make sure that we are looking for all at the investments we're making and making sure that we've got a good ability to finance this and provide solid returns for our investors into the long term. So to Nicole's point, we are looking at all options for how to finance this project. We're actively pursuing that as we speak here today. We don't have a lot of updates for you at this point in time as we get into the new year and think about our fourth quarter call that we would have in February, I would expect we'll have a lot color on that, likely as far as where we're at in the process of finalizing those opportunities.

But it's a high focus item for us here internally making sure that we balance the appropriate return for investors going forward with also looking at the impact of the ongoing business here and making sure we've got the right financing structures in place.

Aidan Kelly

Great. Thanks for the rundown on that, Jason. It sounds like to keep our eyes peeled for 4Q plan [ afresh ], I guess. Maybe just one other question on my end, kind of just turning to some of the disclosures on the project itself. It looks like you narrowed the cost range slightly to [indiscernible]. So just curious if you could provide any detail on what gave you the confidence to kind of tighten the range at this point in time. And just the rationale behind the revised compressor station configuration and whether that there's any read-through for like implications on project costs or future expansion capacity there. Any detail there would be great.

Jason Vollmer

Yes. Certainly, I can provide a little bit of detail on that. So as we think about, again, this project, as you know, we've been working on this for a long time, looking at different design, routes, various items that would make sense here. The new item that we would have talked about now is that we have finalized the pipe sizes with this, they starting with 42-inch in the West going to 36 and then down to 30-inch pipe. What that does do, and specifically to your compressor station question is it does allow us to operate this more efficiently with less compression needed from a larger pipe basis, which then offset some need for additional compression, but also for our customers involved here, will reduce fuel cost for them on a go-forward basis as well.

So we think that is the optimal structure based on what we've determined with where we're at now. So that does change a little bit of the calculus, I guess, on the overall cost. So narrowing the range now. I think what we've been able to do as we've continued to progress and work on this project, reaching FID in the end of September was a very important milestone for us. Now moving forward, we've been able to take some of the unknowns that we would have here and make them a bit more known as we've continued to work through. So again, getting in front of the -- finalizing the design, understanding what compressor items we need, getting orders made in certain areas, working on pipe design, pipe -- the mill space working with contractors, gave us a lot more clarity to be able to narrow it down and really kind of take in the bookends of that range and narrow to something that we feel very comfortable with here now landing in this $2.8 billion to $3.1 billion range.

Nicole Kivisto

Yes. No, only thing I would just highlight -- go ahead, I'm sorry.

Aidan Kelly

No, [indiscernible] Nicole.

Nicole Kivisto

Yes, I was just going to highlight one more item that you would note for CapEx as it relates to the pipeline, you would have seen an increase compared to last quarter. Basically, once we got to FID, we're bringing those into CapEx. But what that CapEx demonstrates is we are making some of these decisions that Jason alluded to, we've been working through this project for quite some time, but we're now able to kind of get to a decision point and lock some of these things in as we finish out the year, and that actually helped us then to his point, narrow that range a bit.

Aidan Kelly

Got it. That's super clear. Well, I appreciate all the color, and I'll leave it there. See you guys soon.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies.

Brian Russo

It's actually Brian Russo on for Julien. You mentioned a fourth quarter kind of update. Is it at all possible to get some insight into who the partner might be or financing structure when you report the updated CapEx with your usual annual update, I guess, in November?

Nicole Kivisto

Yes. Our normal cadence, I think, that you're referring to is when we update and refresh our 5-year capital plan. We normally do that following EEI. But as Jason mentioned, I don't know that we'll be in a position to be disclosing anything at [indiscernible] as it relates to financing. What he alluded to would be we would have more information at our year-end call. which is more in the February time frame.

Brian Russo

Okay. Understood. And when we look into 2027, you've given the cases that have concluded for partial year contribution this year, full year next year, along with the interim rate filings. Do you think you can kind of move back up into the -- comfortably in the middle or the high end of that 6% to 8% long-term range just based on rate relief.

Jason Vollmer

I can take that one, Brian. I think as we look ahead, we certainly have not given guidance beyond '26 at this point, right? We did update and reaffirm our guidance, I guess, for '26 at this point. We feel comfortable with that range we've got now. I was leading to '27, certainly, the rate case activity that we've had along with some of the growth projects we've had here, I think we'll continue to provide benefit for as we look forward. But I don't want to get ahead of foreshadowing any guidance for next year yet. We just haven't given that yet. That's typically a fourth quarter cadence for us as well. So again, a similar time frame with what Nicole just mentioned with our fourth quarter call.

Brian Russo

Okay. And then lastly, we've seen some nonutility generation being developed in the region to serve some of your data center customers, I believe. And I'm just curious, have you been involved in any of those discussions and why MDU is in a position to not only serve economic growth through the [ Bakken East ] pipeline, but also through utility-owned generation.

Nicole Kivisto

Yes. I would just say, as we think about the development that we're seeing and as you know, Brian, it's been our practice to really talk about the -- where we're at with these once we have a signed [ ESA ], but it is fair to say that we continue in conversation on various other opportunities. Now saying that, I think you're really getting to the question of, are we willing to make investments to serve these types of loads. In the past, we have not done that, so that would be different. And what I would say is we're not opposed to that, looking at investment opportunities that make sense. But we're going to want to make sure that we've got the right cost causation similar to how we've treated these in the past that the large load pays for that cost. And that it makes sense for our shareholders and customers as well.

So again, we will continue to evaluate these opportunities on a case-by-case basis. It's not that we're opposed to investment, but it's going to have to make sense for our shareholders.

Jason Vollmer

And I would probably just add a little bit to this, too, when you think about the pipeline project and what this does for the state of North Dakota, again, getting this FID decision with Bakken East has been very instrumental, I think, not only for our company, but even for economic development across the state. We don't serve the entire state of North Dakota, but North Dakota is a state that has had a lot of data center development going on. So to your point, you're probably seeing others that are announcing generation projects. Where we see the value of the business mix that we have today is our ability to potentially participate by serving data centers ourselves or large [ load ] customers of our sorts if they and in our service territory.

But alternatively, with our pipeline business, we certainly have the ability to serve power generation to serve whatever kind of load that would be, whether that's existing load growth that we may see customers have or whether that is large load customers in there. So we think we sit kind of in a unique position to be able to capitalize on both opportunities.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Nicole Kivisto for closing remarks.

Nicole Kivisto

All right. I want to thank you all again for joining us today and for your thoughtful questions. We certainly appreciate your continued interest in and support of MDU Resources.

As a reminder, we do plan to release our new 5-year capital expenditures forecast later this month, in line with our typical timing of releasing after the EEI conference. We look forward to seeing many of you at the conference. And finally, I do want to close by once again thanking our employees for their ongoing commitment to safety, reliability, operational excellence and customer service. It is their dedication that enables us to continue delivering for our customers while advancing opportunities for future growth.

With that, we look forward to staying engaged with you throughout the remainder of the year. Operator, you may now conclude the call.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.