Lamar Advertising (LAMR) 2026 年第三季法說會：調升 AFFO 財測指引

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季經收購調整後營收年增 6.2%，經收購調整後費用增加 4.4%。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴增 110 個基點至 49.1%。
• 調整後 EBITDA 成長 9.3% 至 3.069 億美元。AFFO 成長 10.1% 至 2.493 億美元，稀釋後每股 AFFO 成長 9.5% 至 2.41 美元。
• Lamar 將全年稀釋後每股 AFFO 財測上調至 8.87 至 8.97 美元，其中位數意味著較 2025 年成長 8%。
• 10 月營收突破 2.32 億美元，經收購調整後成長 14.1%。若排除政治廣告，成長率接近 7%。
• 全國性廣告營收成長近 20%，2026 年政治廣告支出預計將突破 4,000 萬美元，第三季程序化廣告營收則成長 42.4%。
• 管理階層計劃建議發放第四季每股 1.65 美元的常規股利，以及每股 0.30 至 0.35 美元的年終特別股利，兩者皆須經董事會核准。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

全國性廣告營收成長近 20%，佔 Lamar 總業務比重的 25%，高於上一季的 23%。在地與區域性營收成長 4.2%，將連續成長紀錄延續至第 22 季。該領域約佔看板廣告營收的 75%。

政治廣告仍是主要推動力。管理階層預計 2026 年政治廣告支出將突破 4,000 萬美元，為 2022 年水準的兩倍以上，且較 2024 年高出 40%。預計近半數支出將集中於第四季，其中數位廣告約佔政治廣告營收的一半。

數位廣告營收佔總業務比重達 33.8%，相較去年同期為 32%。數位平台總營收成長 12.2%，同店數位帳單金額成長 6.5%。Lamar 截至第三季末擁有 5,883 面數位看板，較第二季增加 153 面，較 2025 年底增加 330 面。

程序化廣告營收在第三季成長 42.4%，年初至今成長 42.9%。全國性與程序化廣告營收合計成長 19.7%，佔總業務比重的 24.6%。

依業務類別劃分，經收購調整後機場廣告營收成長 14.4%，交通運輸廣告營收成長 8.1%。中西部與中部看板區域以 9.2% 與 8% 的成長率領跑各地區表現。

在各廣告產業類別中，電信業成長 30.5%、服務業 16%、零售業 11%、金融業 7.3%、汽車業 7%。醫療保健與休閒娛樂類別表現疲弱至大致持平，微幅下滑約 1%。

Lamar 年初至今以超過 1.47 億美元現金完成了 54 項看板收購案，並斥資逾 5,500 萬美元購買精選看板下方的地役權。管理階層表示併購儲備案源依然活躍，預期未來幾個月將有更多交易完成。

管理階層財測

現金利息支出之假設前提為年內剩餘時間短期浮動利率維持不變。股利發放建議仍須獲得董事會核准，並依據公司分配 100% 年度應稅所得之政策制定。

風險與關注領域

管理階層形容私募市場收購估值偏高（frothy），強調在持續追求能提升獲利之增值交易的同時，必須維持併購紀律。

經收購調整後營業費用在第三季的成長速度超出公司原先預算，不過管理階層將此增加歸因於與營收強勁相關的變動成本。

2026 年預期政治廣告營收有近半數預計將落在第四季，這使得該項支出的時間點與實現情況對全年營運表現至關重要。

AFFO 展望假設 2026 年剩餘時間短期浮動利率維持不變。擬議的第四季常規股利與特別股利亦須獲得董事會核准。

分析師問答重點

管理階層表示，Lamar 正在從其他地方媒體獲取廣告市佔率，特別是地方聯播網電視台與廣播電台，而非來自競爭對手的看板營運商。10 月排除政治廣告後的營收成長近 7%，管理階層以此作為整體需求廣泛存在的佐證。

在併購方面，管理階層表示其活躍程度處於執行長 Sean Reilly 職業生涯以來的最高水準之一。儘管收購估值倍數偏高，Lamar 仍計劃維持紀律，並追求能創造增值效益的交易。

管理階層亦指出，由於具備稅務優勢，賣方對 UPREIT 架構的接受度日益提高。Lamar 預期即將進行的一筆交易將採用此架構，並表示邁入 2027 年之際，案源儲備依然強勁。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Excuse me, everyone, we now have Sean Reilly and Jay Johnson in conference. [Operator Instructions] In the course of this discussion, Lamar may make forward-looking statements regarding the company, including statements about its future financial performance, strategic goals, plans and objectives, including with respect to the amount and timing of any distributions to stockholders and the impacts and effects of the general economic conditions, including inflationary pressures on its business, financial condition and results of operations.

All forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond Lamar's control and which may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. Lamar has identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in this call in the company's third quarter 2026 earnings release and its most recent annual report on Form 10-K. Lamar refers you to those documents. Lamar's third quarter 2026 earnings release, which contains information required by Regulation G regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures, was furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K this morning and is available on the Investors section of Lamar's website, www.lamar.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to Sean Reilly. You may begin.

Sean Reilly

Thank you, Katie, and good morning, all, and welcome to Lamar's Q3 2026 Earnings Call. We continue to be very pleased with how the year is playing out. For the third quarter, revenue growth ticked up 6.2% on an acquisition-adjusted basis, driven by strong demand from national customers, political spend and our digital platform. Revenue increased across billboards, airports, transits and logos, while expense growth moderated to 4.4% on an acquisition-adjusted basis. That all translated to an EBITDA margin for Q3 of 49.1%. October was even better with revenue topping $232 million, reflecting year-over-year growth of more than 14% on an acquisition-adjusted basis.

Notably, ex political, the growth was just shy of 7%. With those results in hand, today, we are raising our guidance for full year AFFO to a range of $8.87 to $8.97 per share representing at the midpoint, an increase of 8% over 2025. In September, the Board increased the quarterly distribution by $0.05 to $1.65 per share. We will recommend a similar dividend for Q4 and given our pacings, anticipate recommending that we pay a special dividend of at least $0.30 at the end of December.

Back to Q3. In addition to political, categories of strength included services, retail, auto and telecom while health care and amusements were flattish. Our national revenue increased nearly 20%, while local and regional revenues were up 4.2%. Both of those rates of growth accelerated from Q2. A word on political. It's clear to us that with every cycle, we are without a doubt gaining momentum and market share. As campaigns and PACs recognize the value of our audience. Nationally, political ad spend across all media is expected to grow about 30% this year over 2022 and modestly over 2024. We will do far better than that. Our political spend this year will top $40 million, more than double what we generated in 2022 and up 40% over 2024. Nearly half of that spend will show up in Q4. Our digital platform, the largest in the industry, is a key driver of our growth for the political category. It accounts for about half of the political spend. It's also obviously driving growth for our business as a whole.

Digital now generates more than 1/3 of our billboard revenue, and on a same-store basis, digital billing increased 6.5% in Q3 with programmatic up more than 40% in Q3. On the M&A front, we've been busy. Year-to-date, we have closed 54 billboard acquisitions for a cash purchase price of more than $147 million, and we've spent more than $55 million, enhancing the security of our real estate portfolio by purchasing easements beneath our better billboards. That project continues. In addition, we completed our second UPREIT transaction in August. We have a healthy pipeline of additional deals that we expect to finalize and announce over the next couple of months. Overall, we are ending 2026 with a lot of momentum. And with that, I will turn it over to Jay to walk you through some additional numbers. Jay?

Jay Johnson

Thanks, Sean. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We had a strong third quarter and are extremely pleased with our results, which once again exceeded internal expectations and consensus estimates across revenue, adjusted EBITDA and AFFO. Our billboard regions all experienced solid top line growth, led by the Midwest and Central, which were up 9.2% and 8%, respectively. The airport business continued to outperform with acquisition-adjusted revenue increasing 14.4% in Q3 versus last year, followed by transit, which was up 8.1%.

In addition, the positive momentum continued in October with revenue increasing 14.1%, which is the best month on record for the company. October's performance brings acquisition-adjusted revenue to 6.4% through the first 10 months of the year. As of October 31, we had 99.7% of our budget on the books with November pacing looking promising as well. Acquisition-adjusted consolidated expenses increased 4.4% in the third quarter which grew more than our original budget, but was driven by variable expenses tied to solid revenue growth in the third quarter. We anticipate full year acquisition-adjusted operating expense growth in the 4.25% to 4.75% range. Adjusted EBITDA was $306.9 million compared to $280.8 million in 2025, an increase of 9.3% in the quarter and improving 8.2% on an acquisition-adjusted basis. This was an acceleration from Q3 (sic) [ Q2 ] when adjusted EBITDA grew a healthy 7.3%.

Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 110 basis points to 49.1% over Q3 2025. Adjusted funds from operations totaled $249.3 million in the third quarter compared to $226.5 million last year, an increase of 10.1%. Diluted AFFO per share grew 9.5% to $2.41 per share versus $2.20 in the third quarter of 2025. Local and regional sales grew for the 22nd consecutive quarter and accounted for approximately 75% of billboard revenue in Q3. It has been over 5 years since the portfolio last experienced a year-over-year decline in local and regional sales, which was due to COVID.

National sales performance was extremely robust and grew to represent 25% of our book, up from 23% last quarter. On the capital expenditure front, total spend for the quarter was $45 million, including $16.7 million of maintenance CapEx. And for the full year, we anticipate total CapEx of approximately $186 million with maintenance CapEx comprising $65 million. Turning to our balance sheet. On October 1, we closed on the amendment and extension of our $250 million AR securitization. The facility now matures in October 2029 and the margin improved by 10 basis points. The new program also includes structural enhancements that increase flexibility and availability. The securitization was our nearest maturity, and we now have no debt maturity until our $600 million of senior notes due in February 2028, followed by the revolving credit facility in July of that same year. The company currently has approximately $3.5 billion in total consolidated debt, and our weighted average interest rate is 4.5% with a weighted average debt maturity of 3.9 years.

As defined under our credit facility, we ended the quarter with total leverage of 2.84x net debt-to-EBITDA, which remains amongst the lowest levels ever for the company. Our secured debt leverage was 0.64x at quarter end, and we are compliant with both our total debt incurrence and secured debt maintenance tests against covenants of 7x and 4.5x, respectively. For the full year, we expect total leverage to hover around 3 turns with secured leverage coming in comfortably below 1x net debt to EBITDA. In addition, our LTM interest coverage through September 30 was 7.3x adjusted EBITDA to cash interest further demonstrating the strength of the company's balance sheet.

As Sean mentioned, M&A has been active thus far in 2026. We continue to benefit from investment capacity well over $1 billion with the ability to deploy this capital while remaining at or below the high end of our target leverage range of 3.5 to 4x net debt to EBITDA. Our liquidity and access to capital, both remained strong. At quarter end, we had $721 million in total liquidity comprised of $54 million of cash on hand and $667 million available under our revolver.

The AR securitization was fully drawn with $250 million outstanding. Subsequent to quarter end, the company repaid $40 million on the revolving credit facility and we currently have $35 million outstanding. In this morning's release, we revised our full year outlook and now expect diluted AFFO per share of $8.87 to $8.97 an increase of $0.10 at the midpoint, and this follows last quarter's upward revision of $0.22 at the midpoint. Cash interest in our guidance totaled $156 million and assumes no change in short-term floating interest rates for the balance of the year. As I touched on earlier, maintenance CapEx is budgeted for $65 million in 2026 and cash taxes are projected to come in around $12 million. Finally, our dividend. We paid a cash dividend of $1.60 per share in each of the first and second quarters, increasing to $1.65 per share in Q3 and management's recommendation for the fourth quarter will be a regular cash dividend of $1.65 per share as well. This recommendation is subject to Board approval, and we will communicate the Board's decision.

For the full year, we expect to distribute a regular dividend of $6.50 per share. However, given the company's performance exceeding expectations through September 30 and the outlook for Q4, we will request approval for a special dividend at year-end. The special dividend will likely be in the range of $0.30 to $0.35 per share, bringing the company's full year cash dividend to $6.80 to $6.85 per share. This is consistent with our practice in the years past to ensure distribution of 100% of our taxable income. As a reminder, the company's dividend is based on taxable income subject to Board approval, and our dividend policy remains to distribute 100% of our taxable income annually. Again, we are pleased with an extremely strong quarter as well as the momentum that has continued into the fourth quarter, and we look forward to executing on our strategy in the balance of the year. I'll now turn the call back over to Sean.

Sean Reilly

Thanks, Jay. I'll cover a few familiar data sets, and then we'll open it up for questions. Q3 digital revenue constituted 33.8% of our total book. That's up over the 32% it represented in Q3 of last year. Growth of the overall platform was up 12.2% in total and on a same-store basis was, as I mentioned, up 6.5%. We ended Q3 with 5,883 digital faces, an increase of 153 over Q2 and an increase of 330 year-to-date over Q4 of 2025. National/programmatic grew 19.7% in Q3 and constituted 24.6% of our book. Programmatic grew 42.4% in Q3. A reminder that for us, programmatic is 100% national. So less programmatic, national grew 16.1% in Q3.

By the way, year-to-date, programmatic is up a similar amount at 42.9%. As mentioned, on verticals, services were up 16%. Retail was up 11%. Auto was up 7%; financial, up 7.3% and telecom was up 30.5%. Also, as mentioned, health care and amusements were down to flattish, approximately 1%. With that, Katie, we will open it up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Cameron McVeigh with Morgan Stanley.

分析師問答

Cameron McVeigh

Great results in the quarter. I was curious if you could just talk high level how customer conversations have been trending in the quarter? What are they most primarily focused on. And do you see Lamar taking share from competitors or other traditional mediums. And then secondly, I just wanted to ask on M&A how the multiples are looking in the private market and maybe your expectations for acquisitions going forward? Curious how the UPREIT structure is being received from some potential sellers?

Sean Reilly

Sure. Let me hit the share shift first because that's a great question. I would say that the shift that's happening for us in our book is away from local network affiliate or radio broadcast. We're seeing a clear shift there. And one of the reasons I highlighted our ex political October was that I'm sure when you hear from the other medium, particularly local medium, ex political, they're going to shrink. And in October, which was an incredible political month for us, we actually grew ex political, almost 7%. And that's why I highlighted that number for you guys. So yes, I would say the share shift for us is we're not taking it at the expense of our fellow billboard operators. We're taking it at the expense of other local media.

The M&A pipeline looks really strong, Cameron. We're seeing as much activity as I've seen in my career. And it looks good. We're happy with what we've landed so far this year. We're happy with what we have under LOI that will close in the next few months, and we're seeing a lot of activity as we go into 2027. And one of the deals we hope to announce shortly will involve an UPREIT structure. So we are seeing greater acceptance out there as people really begin to understand the tax benefits of it and really the advantages of hitching their wagon to Lamar. So yes, more to come on that. What was the first part of your question?

Cameron McVeigh

Just on how M&A multiples are trending?

Sean Reilly

Yes. It's frothy out there. So we're going to have to be disciplined, but we're going to get our share at prices that are accretive as we always do. We've been around a long time, and our philosophy is to buy through the cycles. This happens to be one of those uptick cycles, and we're going to buy through it. And we're going to bring home deals that make sense. I think you asked about the tone of business and what advertisers are saying. It's very strong out there. We're happy with renewals going into '27. It's across the board on national in terms of the verticals that I ticked off. So we're feeling very good about where the world is headed for Lamar.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude our Q&A session. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Sean Reilly for closing remarks.

Sean Reilly

Well, thank you all for listening, and thank you for your interest in Lamar. We look forward to visiting again in February.

Operator

Thank you. That brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.