TKO 2026年第3季法說會：EBITDA 成長 54%，調升財測

重點摘要

• TKO 2026 年第三季營收達 13.6 億美元，成長 21%（較去年同期），而調整後 EBITDA 成長 54% 至 5.56 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴增約 870 個基點 至 41%。
• UFC 營收成長 60% 至 5.19 億美元，主要受惠於 Skydance 媒體費用提高、兩場額外賽事、創紀錄的現場賽事需求以及財務獎勵方案。UFC 調整後 EBITDA 成長 72% 至 2.85 億美元。
• WWE 營收下滑 1% 至 3.99 億美元，主因該季僅包含一場主力陣容頂級現場賽事，相較於去年同期則為四場。調整後 EBITDA 仍成長 5% 至 2.17 億美元，而合作夥伴營收則成長 28%。
• IMG 營收成長 16% 至 3.91 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長 89% 至 1.16 億美元。2026 年 FIFA 世界盃貢獻約 9,000 萬美元的全年度調整後 EBITDA，高於公司先前預估的約 7,500 萬美元。
• 管理層連續第二季調升 2026 全年度財測。TKO 目前目標營收為 57.9 億至 58.3 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 則為 22.95 億至 23.15 億美元。
• TKO 產生了 4.5 億美元 的第三季自由現金流，相當於 81% 的調整後 EBITDA 轉換率。管理層表示，計劃利用手頭現金與新增債務，在剩餘授權額度內積極買回股票。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

UFC

UFC 舉辦了 12 場賽事，本季共包含三場數字賽與九場格鬥之夜，相較於去年同期的十場。媒體版權營收成長 66%，反映了自 1 月起生效的 Skydance 協議帶來更高的費用，以及額外增加的兩場賽事。

現場賽事營收成長 83%。UFC-329 創下 UFC 歷史新高的 2,600 萬美元門票收入，而在 Meta Apex 以外舉辦的每場賽事門票皆售罄。管理階層表示，本季在五個國家共達成十場售罄與七項場館紀錄。

合作夥伴營收成長 29%，受惠於新合作夥伴、續約金額提高以及更有利的賽事日程安排。財務激勵方案亦有所貢獻，包括與費城、阿布達比、塞爾維亞、亞利桑那州及奧克拉荷馬市賽事掛鉤的協議。

WWE

WWE 的季度比較反映出賽程較為清淡，主陣容大型付費賽事（PLE）僅有一場，相較於 2025 年第三季的四場。現場賽事營收下滑 30%，主要歸因於 PLE 場次減少以及 SummerSlam 門票銷售下滑。

然而合作夥伴營收仍成長 28%，主要受 SummerSlam、新合作夥伴關係、續約，以及根據 ESPN 協議保留的商業資源所帶動。媒體版權營收成長 3%，而消費性產品授權營收則成長 13%，受惠於電玩遊戲與交換卡權利金增加。

管理階層表示，WWE 合作夥伴營收仍可望成長超過 20%（以全年度計），這意味著約 50% 的第四季年增率。

IMG 與 On Location

2026 年 FIFA 世界盃款待計畫創造了 24 億美元的總銷售額，其中包括近 5 億美元 來自決賽。超過 640,000 套套裝方案已在 16 個主辦城市售出。

TKO 認列了約 4,500 萬美元 的第三季世界盃相關調整後 EBITDA，以及約 9,000 萬美元 的全年度金額。管理階層亦表示，2028 年洛杉磯奧運的銷售進度超前，同時強調唯有符合內部報酬門檻，才會進行額外的奧運合作夥伴關係。

Zuffa Boxing

Zuffa Boxing 擁有超過 100 名簽約拳手，並在該季度於紐約市、都柏林和倫敦舉辦了賽事。在 T-Mobile 競技場舉辦的 Garcia-Ben 賽事吸引了近 19,000 名觀眾，門票收入超過 800 萬美元。

管理階層表示，近期的優先要務包括擴大拳手陣容、培養具辨識度的選手與故事線、在拉斯維加斯以外舉辦更多賽事，並透過與 Skydance 及 Sky 的發行合作關係打造該產品。

資本配置

TKO 回饋了超過 16 億美元 給股東，於 2026 年前九個月透過股利發放與股票買回進行。9 月 30 日，TKO OpCo 支付了約 1.5 億美元，即 每股 0.79 美元 的現金股利。

該公司已完成原定 20 億美元 授權額度下的股票買回，該額度隨後提高至 30 億美元。管理階層有意運用現金與新增債務，以完成剩餘授權額度下的追加買回。

管理階層財測

該展望假定其餘預定的中東賽事皆如期舉行，包括一場 WWE 頂級現場賽事（Premium Live Event）及兩場 UFC 格鬥之夜（Fight Night）。

第四季方面，UFC 預計舉辦十場現場賽事，其中包括四場數字賽。管理階層預期，賽事組合、財務激勵方案以及來自 Skydance 較高的媒體權利金將支撐業績表現。

WWE 第四季賽程包含四場頂級現場賽事，相較之下去年同期為兩場。管理階層預期，賽事時程安排，以及與利雅德 Crown Jewel 和伯斯 WrestlePalooza 相關的財務激勵方案，都將帶來正面效益。

在 IMG 方面，管理階層預期營收將實現健全成長，且調整後 EBITDA 為正值，這主要受惠於 On Location 的款待方案銷售、羅馬的 Eternal City Tip Off 賽事，以及額外的 NFL 國際賽事。

TKO 在第四季財報電話會議之前不會提供正式的 2027 年財測。該公司計劃在預計於第一季（可能在 3 月）舉行的投資人日（Investor Day）上，討論其長期成長策略。

風險與觀察重點

• 中東賽事曝險： 管理階層表示，2026 年剩餘賽事預計將如期舉行，但也坦言若無法如期舉辦，全年財測將受到影響。
• 季度賽事波動性： 營收與獲利能力可能會因 UFC 和 WWE 賽事的時程、地點、場館及對戰卡司組合而有所波動。
• WWE 場館比較基期： SummerSlam 營收下滑反映了明尼阿波利斯場館與先前紐約/紐澤西賽事之間的比較差異。管理階層駁斥了 WWE 現場賽事已達成長天花板的觀點，並指出 10 月份創下的多項當地門票收入新紀錄。
• 2027 年同期比較：管理階層指出，由於缺少四年一度的 On Location 活動，且隨著 2028 洛杉磯奧運（LA 2028）籌備工作加速，支出亦隨之增加。
• Zuffa Boxing 執行進度：管理階層指出，打造明星選手、引人入勝的故事情節、宿敵對決，以及爭奪消費者的注意力，是擴大該業務規模面臨的主要挑戰。

分析師問答重點摘要

• 在中東風險方面，管理階層表示短期曝險極低，且 2026 年剩餘的三場活動均按計畫進行。針對預計在沙烏地阿拉伯舉辦的 2027 年《摔角狂熱》（WrestleMania 2027），TKO 已收到半數合約款項，並表示若有必要可將活動移師他處而非取消，但若臨近舉辦時才變更地點，將會失去相關的財務激勵方案（FIP）補貼。
• 在 UFC 選手薪酬方面，管理階層表示，2026 年早先提及的人才投資增加已反映在財務報表中。目前預期在 2026 年剩餘期間或 2027 年，不會再有對利潤率產生重大影響的薪酬增幅。
• 關於 2027 年成長展望，管理階層婉拒提供正式目標，但指出合作夥伴關係、門票收益率、財務激勵方案、UFC 國際媒體轉播權、消費品授權以及 Zuffa Boxing，將是即將舉行的投資人日所聚焦的關鍵領域。
• 針對擴大後的 Skydance 業務版圖，管理階層表示正討論如何運用 HBO、TNT、派拉蒙（Paramount）及 CBS，以進一步擴大 UFC 的觸及率、收視率與觀眾參與度。
• 關於 Zuffa Boxing，管理階層表示該項目進度超前，但強調培養具知名度的拳手與打造賽事故事線，仍是當前最重要的營運重點。

財報電話會議完整逐字稿

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to TKO's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Seth Zaslow, Head of Investor Relations. Seth, please go ahead.

Seth Zaslow

Good afternoon. and welcome to TKO's Third Quarter 2026 earnings release. A short while ago, we issued a press release, which you can view on our Investor Relations website. A recording of this call will also be available via our website for at least 30 days. Joining me on today's call are Mark Shapiro, TKO's President and Chief Operating Officer; and Andrew Schleimer TKO's Chief Financial Officer. After prepared remarks from Mark and Andrew, we'll open the call for questions.

As a reminder, we will be making forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Our remarks will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to GAAP measures can be found in our press release as well as on our IR website. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Shapiro

Thanks, Seth. The third quarter is more validation of the live experience secular tailwinds powering TKO. Our company sits squarely at the intersection of premium sports, live events and experiential hospitality across multiple businesses at scale and worldwide.

And as AI makes live content and shared experiences even more valuable, our tailwinds become more fierce. The media landscape is also shifting in our favor. The Paramount combination with Warner Bros. Discovery is an industry defining moment and TKO stands to benefit.

Paramount Plus is our primary partner across UFC and [ Zuffa ] boxing and the addition of TNT Sports and HBO, once called the heart and solar boxing, under the Skydance umbrella sets the table for more reach, increased engagement and significantly more scale.

As investors, you should be bullish about what this means for TKO. Our business is durable and our fundamentals are firm. The vast majority of our existing revenues are locked in for the next 5 to 7 years. Macro trends are in our favor. Every facet of sports consumption is pointing north, and there is no ceiling.

Turning specifically to our third quarter performance at UFC every single event held outside the Meta Apex sold out, not most of them, all of them. UFC-329 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas was the highest grossing event in UFC history with a $26 million gate headlined by the long-awaited return of Conor McGregor to the Octagon.

We drove nearly 16 million viewers to Paramount Plus. Peaking at 8.3 million concurrent streams, a record-breaking audience on the platform. Conor McGregor is rehabbing now and insist he will be back in 2027. UFC-330 set the record for the highest grossing event ever held at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, while UFC-331 set the same record at crypto.com arena in Los Angeles.

10 sellouts and 7 arena records spanning 5 countries in just a single quarter. All told, UFC Live Events revenue is up north of 80% this quarter over the prior year. On the marketing front, UFC's global partnerships grew significantly in the quarter, with new deals and activations in categories spanning technology in AI, gaming, crypto, financial services, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, television and film releases and automotive.

UFC is white hot and advertisers want to get in front of our audience, specifically our hard-to-reach demos. Recall that 46% of the UFC audience is in the demo of 18 to 34. Now that we are in the market selling traditional commercial ad inventory, for UFC under our Skydance deal and for WWE with ESPN.

We are capitalizing on our audience makeup and are increasingly optimistic about the medium- and long-term financial contribution. Both on a stand-alone basis and as part of fully integrated partnership packages. As I said in September, we plan to provide more color and revisit our TKO wide global partnerships forecast at Investor Day, which will be held in Q1 date forthcoming.

Zeroing in on our financial incentive packages or FIP for short, the demand from public and private partners who value our events as cultural and economic catalysts is real, and it is growing. Internationally, our debut in Serbia backed by an FIP became the highest grossing event in Belgrade arena history.

And Noche UFC and Glendale, part of our new multiyear multi-event and multi-property FIP partnership with Arizona Sports & Events Alliance and Legends Global became the highest grossing domestic fight night in UFC history. Later this month, USE returns to Doha in partnership with Visit Qatar and the pipeline into 2027 FYP growth is expanding.

Pivoting to WWE, Ari and I are having flashbacks to 2019 and when it was 3 years into our acquisition of UFC, and we're seeing almost a mirror image of that momentum. In terms of audience, Raw and Netflix had another exceptional quarter. Spending 12 of 13 weeks on the top 10 list of most viewed shows on the platform globally.

On September 14 alone, raw charted in the top 10 and 24 countries the widest reach since the show debuted in January 2025. And in October, all WWE programming launched on Netflix in Japan, a market that has consistently demonstrated demand for our content and live events, and this will serve to embolden our strategic initiatives across all of Asia.

To further put this into perspective, domestically, our Sunday nights main event on September 6, sold out State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, WWE's highest grossing non-PLE event across more than 20 visits to the city over the last 10 years, and we are just scratching the surface of what WWE can generate as we leverage our market intelligence data and analytics to improve both ticket yields and ticket volumes.

Just as we did in the early years with UFC, which set the stage for a compounding growth that we are still realizing today. The same theme applies to global partnerships. The categories are expanding at a rapid pace, just as they did when UFC began to heat up.

Tech crypto, gaming, QSR, television and film releases, CPG and automotive. WWE's global partnerships delivered a strong third quarter. Up approximately 30% over last year despite a significantly lighter event calendar with only 1 premium live event versus 4 in the prior year quarter.

Summer Slam became the third highest grossing PLE by partnership revenue in company history, behind only WrestleMania 41 and WrestleMania 42 proof of WWE's growing cultural and commercial relevance. We are on track to close the full year up more than 20%, as I said at the Goldman Conference in September. That implies approximately 50% growth in Q4 alone.

UFC and WWE are seeing growth from every corner and this in spite of macroeconomic pressure in geopolitical risk. We're playing the long game, prioritizing creative, finding new revenue streams and serving as marketing engines for the world's biggest brands.

As just one example, WWE's partnership with the Walt Disney Company is expanding once again. This past Monday in front of a sold-out audience for raw at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, John Cena announced the first-ever John Cena Classic, which will feature the biggest names on WWE's main roster from Raw and SmackDown, up against the brightest future superstars from NXT.

The event will take place at ESPN Y World of Sports Complex at Walt Disney World Resort Orlando on December 14. WWE, Disney and Fanatics will simultaneously stage WWE world, further festivalizing the fan experience and helping promote a major Disney holiday ten pole Avengers Dooms Day.

Now let's talk about why our confidence extends to the rest of our portfolio. At on location, the 2026 FIFA World Cup meaningfully exceeded our plan. When all was said and done, the FIFA World Cup hospitality program delivered $2.4 billion in total hospitality sales with the final match alone generating nearly $500 million.

More than 640,000 packages were sold across 16 host cities. The World Cup put on locations capabilities on biggest stage in the world and confirmed what we've been saying. Premium experiences are in demand, way beyond the 1 percenters who historically chase these experiences.

And our success at both the Milan Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup has charged our CRM database and positions us to continue to meaningfully capitalize on our internal forecast for both Super Bowl 61 in Los Angeles and the LA '28 Olympic Games. In fact, we are tracking ahead of plan on LA '28.

Speaking of the Olympic Games, I should mention that while we are currently evaluating a partnership with the IOC on the French Alps, Brisbane and the Salt Lake City, Utah Games, we continue to demonstrate financial discipline and will only proceed if the return profile meets our internal thresholds similar to our FIFA World Cup strategy.

Let's talk about IMG for a minute. What we never want lost on our investors is the role IMG plays in our sports and entertainment ecosystem. The strategic importance of IMG across industry relationships, our advisory business, production for higher work and distribution capabilities is industry-leading across the globe.

Keep in mind, especially for those newer to the story, our business at its core is live events and experiences, and our fans are at the epicenter of everything we do. As we grow revenue streams across the board, having a business like IMG, an industry leader since 1960 in all the spaces we play is invaluable.

It provides unique influence and leverage. Throughout Q3, IMG played a central role in driving our global partnerships and our FIP growth at UFC and WWE. This in addition to driving global partnership growth for our unmatched portfolio of external partners, such as the RNA and Wimbledon, our worldwide reach with 35 offices globally, and boots on the ground selling into 150 countries simply has no peer.

The more we train and improve communication, collaboration and integration internally across TKO the better the results. Ari and I spend an extraordinary amount of time fostering this culture. Some of the developments I'm most excited about in this past quarter at IMG included its appointment by the WTA as production partner and a multiyear agreement spanning more than 50 tour events per season, including the WTA Finals which will be held this year at Indian Wells for the first time ever.

And topping that, last month, Netflix named IMG as the production partner for its coverage of the FIFA Women's World Cup Brazil in 2027. IMG will deliver every match with more than 100 hours of studio programming available in Spanish, English and French. So the house is full. How do we build a bigger house. That's where Zuffa Boxing comes in.

TKO's track record, deep relationships and global reach, all of which we've talked about, are underpinning the sports return. The enterprise value growth is in Zuffa Boxing, which has quickly emerged as one of the premier boxing organizations in the world. We are building our roster of elite talent now over 100 fighters under contract, and we are touring our cards.

In the third quarter alone, we staged fights in New York City, Dublin and London, where we will return this Saturday for our 12th Zuffa Boxing event of the year. We have media deals with Skydance for the globe, Sands, the U.K. and Ireland, where we partner with Sky Sports. On a parallel track, we also have a work for hire business in boxing. Think promoter, sponsorship sales and media rights.

This business hits our P&L. The centerpiece of the quarter was the Garcia Ben Super fight at T-Mobile Arena on September 12, which drew a sold-out crowd of nearly 19,000 fans and an $8 million plus gate. And coming up in December, the long-awaited Tyson Fury Anthony Joshua fight takes place in Cardiff, Wales.

IMG sold the media rights to Netflix globally, and we will be selling the sponsorship inventory. Dana White is co-promoting the event. Now I'd like to close with a few items for the balance of the year. First, on the Middle East, while we continue to monitor the situation closely, as of today, we fully anticipate our remaining events will proceed as planned.

WWE Crown Jewel returns to Riyadh this weekend, and UFC fight nights come to Doha on November 21 and Riyadh in early December. Second, on capital allocation. We intend to use new debt and cash on hand to complete share repurchases under our previously authorized $3 billion repurchase program. We will be in the market aggressively buying back stock.

As we close out the year, we remain laser-focused on what we've called our year of execution. Today's decision to raise full year guidance once again, is the most direct expression of our conviction across the entire TKO portfolio.

Andrew will now take you through the financials.

Andrew Schleimer

Good afternoon. As Mark highlighted, our fundamentals are sound, and we continue to execute across our businesses in the third quarter. Based on our performance to date and our visibility through year-end, we have raised our full year outlook for the second consecutive quarter.

We generated consolidated revenue of $1.36 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $556 million, yielding a 41% margin. Revenue increased 21% adjusted EBITDA increased 54% and adjusted EBITDA margin increased approximately 870 basis points as compared to the prior year.

In the quarter, UFC generated revenue of $519 million, up 60%. Adjusted EBITDA was $285 million, an increase of 72%. And UFC's adjusted EBITDA margin was 55%, up from 51% in the prior year. As we previewed on our last call, UFC's event mix had a favorable impact on Q3 results. UFC held 12 total events in the period, 3 numbered events and 9 fight nights compared to 10 total events in the prior period, comprised of 2 number events and 8 fight nights.

Media Rights revenue increased 66%, driven by a step-up in fees related to the Skydance deal, which began in January as well as the 2 additional events. Live Events revenue increased 83% due to continued strong demand, including a record gate for UFC-329 and the 2 additional events.

Final incentive packages also contributed to the increase with meaningful FIP from UFC 330 in Philadelphia as well as our fight night events in Abu Dhabi, Serbia, Arizona and Oklahoma City. Partnerships revenue increased 29% and driven by the addition of new partners and higher renewals from existing partners across multiple categories as well as the favorable event calendar.

Consumer Products Licensing revenue increased 51 brand. demonstrating the ever-increasing appeal of the UFC brand with higher royalties across numerous licensees. EA Sports UFC 6 has been a catalyst, achieving record financial and engagement metrics for the franchise. Adjusted EBITDA reflects the increase in revenue, partially offset by an increase in expenses.

Expenses primarily reflected an increase in athlete production and other event-related costs, most notably the impact of an additional number of event and fight night event. As well as UFC-329, which had a higher cost profile compared to other number of events.

Margins increased approximately 400 basis points year-over-year in the quarter. and we continue to expect meaningful enhancement in the UFC margin profile in the fourth quarter and for the full year. WWE generated revenue of $399 million in the quarter, down 1%.

Adjusted EBITDA was $217 million, up 5%. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 54%, up from 52% in the prior year. As previewed on our last call, WWE's event mix had a notable impact on Q3 results. WWE held on main roster premium live event compared to 4 in the prior year period, which included the launch on ESPN with Russel Palooza.

Despite the unfavorable event mix, partnership revenue increased 28%. As expected, we saw a significant acceleration in growth compared to the first half of '26, with performance driven by Summer Slam as well as new partnerships and renewals across multiple categories.

Media Rights revenue increased 3%, primarily reflecting higher fees across WWE programming, most notably the ESPN agreement. Partially offset by lower revenue recognition related to the 3 fewer PLEs in the quarter. Live Events revenue decreased 30%, primarily due to fewer PLEs in the period as well as a decrease in ticket sales for summer slim.

Consumer Products Licensing revenue increased 13%, driven by higher royalties for video games and trading cards compared to the prior year. We continue to deliver growth in this area at both WWE and UFC and by executing multiproperty deals for these iconic brands. Adjusted EBITDA reflected the decrease in revenue more than offset by a decrease in expenses.

Expenses decreased primarily due to lower production, talent and other event-related costs reflecting the lower PLE count. As with UFC, we expect WWE margins will increase meaningfully in Q4 and for the full year. Shifting now to our IMG segment. We generated revenue of $391 million, an increase of 16%. Adjusted EBITDA was $116 million, an increase of 89%.

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 30%, up from 18%. Results included the favorable impact of the FIFA World Cup and on location. As Mark highlighted, this event was a massive success. In the third quarter, we recorded approximately $45 million of adjusted EBITDA related to the World Cup.

For the full year, we recorded approximately $90 million of adjusted EBITDA for this event, meaningfully exceeding our estimate of approximately $75 million. At the IMG business, the integration of IMG's partnerships and marketing sales team into TKO's global partnerships organization was on full display.

Revenue increased over the prior year due primarily to new marketing and distribution deals for tennis and soccer most notably the U.S. Open, Gulf Cup and FIFA World Cup. These increases were partially offset by the absence of revenue from the biannual rider complement.

Adjusted EBITDA primarily reflect the increase in revenue as expenses were essentially flat compared to the prior year. Expenses primarily reflected the impact of the FIFA World Cup and on location and by annual events at the ING business, such as the inclusion of the Gulf Cup and Solheim Cup, offset by the absence of the Ryder Cup.

Corporate and Other generated revenue of $61 million, a decrease of $2 million. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $63 million, an improvement of $12 million compared to the prior year. The decrease in revenue was primarily driven by a decline in boxing related revenue due to a onetime benefit recognized in 2025 from the initial tranche of our equity vesting in Zuffa Boxing.

The decrease was partially offset by an increase in PBR revenue. Adjusted EBITDA reflected lower expenses, primarily personnel and other operating costs, partially offset by the decrease in revenue. Now moving on to our capital structure. In the third quarter, we generated $450 million of free cash flow. Our free cash flow conversion of adjusted EBITDA was 81%. We ended the quarter with $4.647 billion in debt and $631 million in cash and cash equivalents in addition to $959 million of restricted cash.

At quarter end, Net leverage was 2x based on net debt of $4.016 million and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $2.037 billion. As you've heard me say before, maintaining a robust and sustained capital return program remains a top priority. Year-to-date, we've returned in excess of $1.6 billion of capital to equity holders through our dividend and share repurchases.

On September 30, we made a cash dividend payment from TKO OpCo of approximately $150 million or $0.79 per share. We intend to continue funding our dividend with cash flow from operations or cash on hand.

Regarding share repurchases, as Mark noted, given the strength of our balance sheet and what we continue to believe is a dislocation in our stock price relative to its intrinsic value, we expect to be aggressively buying back our stock.

In October 2024, we announced a $2 billion repurchase authorization that we intended to complete within 3 to 4 years. In May of this year, we upsized the authorization to $3 billion. We've now completed buybacks under our original $2 billion authorization, well in advance of the original time line, and we intend to use cash on hand, along with new debt to complete buybacks under the remaining authorization. Regarding our outlook.

As announced in our press release, we are raising our full year 2026 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter in a row. We are now targeting revenue of $5.79 billion to $5.83 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.295 billion to $2.315 billion.

This reflects an increase of $10 million and $15 million, respectively, at the midpoint of the ranges as compared to the prior guidance issued in August. The increase is based on strong operating performance across all of our businesses for the first 9 months of the year and our anticipated performance for the remainder of the year.

Regarding our event calendar and cadence. As Mark noted, we continue to closely monitor developments in the Middle East. Our full year outlook assumes the slate of events scheduled in the region, including a WWE PLE and 2 UFC Fight nights move forward as planned.

If we're unable to stage these events, our current outlook would be impacted. As we've said consistently, our financial performance is subject to quarterly fluctuations inherent in our operations, most notably related to the timing of our live events and the mix of locations, venues in cards.

Therefore, we managed the business with a focus on full year performance and believe results are best evaluated on that basis. With that, I want to highlight a few notable items looking forward to the fourth quarter.

At UFC, the current calendar for the fourth quarter is expected to include 10 live events, including 4 numbered events. This is comparable to the prior year period. With respect to FIPs the mix of live events in the quarter will favorably impact results. UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi and the upcoming Fight Night in Qatar, both carry meaningful financial incentive packages as did similar events we hosted in those markets in Q4 of last year.

The Fight Night scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia in early December also carries a significant FIP. With respect to media rights revenue, results will continue to reflect the step-up from the Skynet deal. At WWE, the timing of live events in the quarter is expected to favorably impact results.

The Q4 schedule has 4 premium live events compared to 2 in the prior year. Live Events revenue will reflect the increase in the number of events, including meaningful FIP for crown jewel and Riad and WrestlePalooza in Perth. With respect to WWE partnership revenue, we expect full year revenue growth in excess of 20%.

As Mark articulated, this implies approximately 50% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter. With respect to media rights revenue, results will reflect a favorable increase in total ninth of main roster PLD programming.

At the IMG segment, we expect healthy revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA. The performance is expected to be driven by on location with revenue growth primarily coming from hospitality sales, the eternal City tip off event in Rome and an increase in international NFL games.

Olympic activity is anticipated to have a net favorable impact on adjusted EBITDA as costs ramped in Q4 last year in preparation for the Milan Cortina Olympic Games. The absence of these expenses will more than offset continued spend in Q4 of this year to support our ongoing sales efforts for LA 28.

In terms of free cash flow, while we have not given formal guidance, we continue to target a free cash flow conversion rate in a normalizing for the impact of net payments related to the World Cup and UFC's rights deal with Skydance. With all that, given all we've delivered in 2026 and our growth strategy for the years ahead, we remain extraordinarily bullish on TKO's long-term outlook.

I'll now turn the call back to Seth.

Seth Zaslow

Thanks, Andrew. Operator, we're ready to open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

分析師問答

Stephen Laszczyk

Mark, maybe to start and just given all the focus on the Middle East over the last couple of weeks, we just be curious to get your thoughts. I appreciate the intent to host the remaining events this year. But to get your thoughts on how we should be thinking about risk if the conflict does intensify from here?

Just to be curious if you could speak more about the contingencies in place and really just how investors should be thinking ultimately about the revenue or EBITDA that could be at risk if these events couldn't be hosted as planned?

Mark Shapiro

Thanks, Stephen. Look, I would tell you that the risk is extremely minimal. I think we've endured the tough climb thus far this year, right? We've had no events interrupted. We've staged all of our events in the Middle East flawlessly.

We have 3 events left this year, 1 being November 7 with the crown jewel, which should be a big 1 for us. we are all systems go. And I would just say further, Vice President comes out today and says, it's very clear voters have spoken, and they've obviously spoken with their votes, and we need to get this conflict and I ran wrapped up.

So just a week ago, they're talking about driving more bonds, and now they're talking about ramping up. Who knows what's real or what's true. But we're just proceeding forward with our partners as if these events will go off without a hitch.

And I would just add for those of you that are concerned about if this extends further, does this put WrestleMania, which is in Saudi next year at risk, I would just tell you is it no more risk than it ever was, given that the world is an unpredictable place but we have already been paid half upfront and received the funds from our partners in Saudi.

And if and when our event ever had to be moved because it would never be canceled, be moved we will certainly and definitely see payment on other half. So come rain or shine, we're getting the other half payment. So we're sitting in a good place.

And as far as contingency goes, it's a long list of cities, primarily in the U.S. that we would move a WrestleMania 2. Of course, you wouldn't get the FIP, Stephen, because it would be last minute. But nonetheless, we'd get the sellout. So we have cities lining up kind of raising their hands, standing, willing, ready and waiting.

And we'll cross that bridge when we come to it. But frankly, we're not concerned.

Stephen Laszczyk

Great. And then, Mark, a month or 2 ago, you made the remark the market might be underestimating the amount of growth that's possible for the business in 2027? Would just be curious if there is any more color you can maybe offer on the drivers behind some of that growth that you had in mind?

And if it is possible to achieve, say, like high single digit or low double-digit EBITDA growth next year? What are some of the building blocks you think investors might be appreciating at the moment in order to get to those as of growth.

Mark Shapiro

Yes. Look, I think some of the story is definitely being taken for granted just because we've been a consistent beat and raise story. It's not easy to do that. We've got a best-in-class management team that's laser-focused and an exceptional track record of monetizing the brand and fully leveraging the business.

We're not about to give '27 guidance at this point. You know most of the revenue drivers. We are going to spell out in great detail how we believe we will capitalize on all of our growth drivers at Investor Day, and I think Andrew can fill you in on kind of some of our plans for that Investor Day as it stands now. It will be in the first quarter, likely in March. But as I mentioned in my prepared comments, we haven't locked in on a date just yet.

Andrew Schleimer

Yes, a couple of things, Stephen. The bottom line here is we're just laser-focused on building upon the operational momentum we saw through the first 9 months of this year and the bullish nature or thoughts we have in our business as evidenced by a second consecutive quarter of increased full year guide.

Mark alluded to the fact that we're not going to be providing formal guidance for 2017 until our Q4 call in February. But rest assured, we're deep into planning and budgeting for next year with a focus on driving revenue and adjusted EBITDA through margin expansion and free cash flow conversion across our entire portfolio.

Despite the obvious absence of the quadrennial events at on location and the incremental spend we anticipate as we ramp up further for LA 28. That being said, as it relates to Investor Day, preparations have begun where at that day, we look to look past 2027 and articulate our plans for the long-term growth trajectory across each of our revenue streams.

As it relates to partnerships, Mark alluded to the fact that we may revisit that number. At Investor Day, we'll talk about how we're leveraging technology and innovative go-to-market strategies to continue to fuel category expansion, monetizing commercial inventory and deliver additional value for our partners.

As it relates to live events, a double-click on data, analytics, ticket yields, volumes and progress that we're making on our financial incentive pipeline and expansion into new markets. because I can assure you that we're making real meaningful progress there.

As it relates to consumer bonus licensing and often overlooked but a continued strong story there, how have licensing deals across our brands continue to build on the strength of the rest of our revenue verticals.

One topic that we know the market is eager for us to give a little bit more insight into is UFC's international media rights recent momentum in this vertical only bolsters our confidence in this opportunity, and we fully anticipate providing a long-term view on international media rights for UFC.

And then finally, of course, our plan to scale Zuffa Boxing and capital allocation, which we -- through our press release and the prepared remarks, doubled down on today. So look, we're excited there's more to come in due course, but now we're focused on finishing the year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Ross with LightShed Partners.

Brandon Ross

If there was anything at all in the release that raised an eyebrow this quarter, I think it was the lower summer slam revenue this year versus last.

And that came after the WrestleMania ticket sales were a little lower this year. Also, and there's been some stuff written about 30% of seats for money in the banking survivor. Is there a trend here that you're somehow hitting a ceiling on live events at WWE? Or is this just specific venues or market?

Mark Shapiro

For this year. Now I'm glad you asked -- I actually -- I can't believe how much these rising trades are red. So hats off to those that are providing such extensive coverage. Look, there's no there's nothing here. These are goes.

I'll remind you, WrestleMania was down in Vegas, as planned. That's how we internally forecast it. When you -- first of all, Vegas is down overall and it doesn't help that we're changing the names of lakes from Lake Ontario to Lake America, whatever else it is. I mean, we're doing everything we can to piss off our friendly neighbors in Canada.

And of course, Canada has been a large contingent that is down in terms of attendance and visitation in Vegas. But we plan for it to be down not just because of that, but because we went through Vegas the year before, and we hadn't been to Vegas with WrestleMania for years to come.

So the euphoria of that, you just weren't going to get a repeat Nonetheless, it was a strong event, an extremely profitable event, a well-attended event. I do it again 6 ways to Sunday, and there is nowhere else we were going to have it where it was going to be more successful.

But again, we planned for it to be down, and it actually -- it beat our estimates. Same with SummerSlam. You're not going to do in Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2 days, what you did in New York, New Jersey. It's just a different.

But as we've always said and we remain consistent, we don't make all of our decisions on just maximizing profitability. About what's best for our fans. It's about what's best for our brand. It's about what's best for audience. It's about what's best for viewership, and it's about what's best for our media partners.

And going back to the Midwest was important to us, and Minneapolis is a strong market and performed extremely well in a stadium. So we're proud of that. And I would just say I don't usually like to give you note Brandon, from the current quarter.

These calls are about obviously reporting on last quarter. But just to keep this timely and I think put it in perspective, look, in terms of the strength of the WWE fan base, the engagement, the audience numbers. We tell you all the time and I had comments in the prepared remarks that week in and week out.

Globally, we're in the top 10 on Netflix in 20 to 30 markets per week. Usually closer to 30. So viewership and engagement, very strong there. SmackDown doing really well for Versant. NXT delivering for the CW our PLEs, especially with ESPN now having that YouTube TV deal done, doing really well even on afternoon days.

Remember Crown Jewel will be up against college football in a weekend afternoon number, yet ESPN is still optimistic encouraged and bullish by what they're seeing from advanced numbers?

And then I would say, further on -- just this past week, we had raw in Brooklyn at Barclays. And on that same Monday night, you had a massive matchup between the Seattle Seahawks, the Super Bowl Champion and the Chicago bearers who are on fire and a great team.

I'm not from Chicago, but actually a full disclosure, I guess, but anyway, you had that and you had a game at Madison Score Garden with the Knicks and the nets. Still, despite that, we had our highest gate ever at the Barclays Center.

And October has been more of the same. On October 9, we had our highest grossing WWE event ever in Lafayette, Louisiana. On October 10, we had our highest grossing night on WrestleMania event ever in New Orleans.

On November -- excuse me, on October 12 in Bossier City, Louisiana. We had the highest grossing WWE event ever in market. On October 15, Winnipeg. We have the highest grossing WWE event ever in the market. On the 16th in Honolulu, our highest grossing WWE event ever in the market. Ontario, California, much of the same on October 23, Raw in Fresno, California on October 26.

And then we rounded it out on October 30, the day before Halloween in Charleston, West Virginia, where we had the highest grossing WWE event ever in the market. So engagement is strong, viewership is strong and business is good.

Brandon Ross

Okay. And then very quickly, the guidance deal is now closed to what unique things become possible with access to that whole portfolio?

Mark Shapiro

Great question. look, I covered some of this in the prepared remarks, but we're in conversations as we speak with Skydance about the best way to maximize audience across the Skydance platforms.

We have a great partnership with the entire team there. I used to work with David Berson, who's the Head of Skydance Sports from our days at ESPN. He's super creative and we will be maximizing HBO, TNT, Paramount, CBS, all in the name of expanding eyeballs, expanding viewership, growing audience and increasing engagement.

We are fully aligned strategically with Skydance. And frankly, they've made a huge investment in the UFC, and we want to see that we help them maximize their returns.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sean Diffley with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Sean Diffley

Two, if I may. Nice to see acceleration in the WWE partnership line as you had telegraphed. I was hoping you could unpack for us some of the drivers in terms of new partners versus price-ups any verticals where you feel like you're still underpenetrated.

And then on UFC, I was hoping you could touch on the recent reset in fighter pay. How should we think about balancing athletes getting better compensated versus your ability to drive further margin expansion Andrew, I think you said that you still expect meaningful margin enhancement in 4Q and beyond, but just flesh that out a little further.

Andrew Schleimer

Great. Look, in terms of Talent Pay, I think in Q2, we came out and we talked about level setting investment in talent and that being flowing through our financial statements for the balance of the year.

And that's what you've seen. I think we've taken, given the step-up in the Paramount deal, increases across the board, whether they be bonuses that we articulated earlier on in the year or an investment in top to bottom talent, new roster talent and those that are coming up through our contender series development programming.

So I don't think there's a regroup, I don't think that you're going to be in a position or we're going to be in a position as we look forward to the balance of the year or '27, where incremental athlete compensation is going to be required, which would impact our margins.

As it relates to WWE partnership revenue, look, as Mark articulated, and I think in both of our prepared remarks, Q3 was indicative of us recelerating if you thought there was a deceleration story in Q1 and Q2 with benefiting even despite 3 fewer PLEs to the extent of 30% growth.

And we anticipate Q4 to be up 50% over the prior year Q4, somewhat benefiting from 2 additional main roster PLEs versus Q4 in 2025. So look, there's a lot to unpack in there.

There are categories that we articulated, but the growth came from significant investment in Summer Slam in the quarter, new inventory that we're selling, inclusive of some of the media that we have on ESPN that we retained commercial inventory in that deal.

And then new products and technologies as developed in-house. So look, we're fairly bullish top to bottom on partnerships. And any indication of a slowdown. I think we've demonstrated that not to be the case. And look, I'll just tell you, Sean, if you're betting on events and experiences, right, in this AI era continuing to grow and expand and be in man, then you're betting on TKO had a great meeting this morning with one of our partners, Michael Rubin, who runs Fanatics, and he's talking about the great success they're having with sponsors and Fanatics best which is big brands trying to reach people in multisensory environments, hard-to-reach demos, masses, engaging with advertisers.

And we do that all day, as Andrew pointed out. We do it in arena. We do it through social. We do it through our media partners and we do it from a brand perspective, even in the grocery aisle.

So we're feeling really good about our progress and our trajectory as it relates to global partnerships revenue, not just the target we put out there, but the potential upside that exists that we will discuss at Investor Day in March.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Karnovsky with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

David Karnovsky

Mark, WWE's partnership with Saudi Arabia started in 2018, I think it was initially announced for 10 years. So just curious how you're thinking about relationship, your events in the region, just maybe as the original term comes to an end?

And then just staying on this topic, maybe this is more for Andrew. WrestleMania in 2027, I don't know if you could frame event at all in terms of kind of the potential FIP Mark mentioned relative to your normal fee in that country, how to think about attendance, right, either locally or from tourism? And then just like what the kind of sponsorship in fact is given it's a non-U.S. location.

Mark Shapiro

Look, I'll tell you that our partners in Saudi have been stupendous. I mean, [indiscernible] Dr. Recon, I mean we are in conversations with them almost on a daily basis. They're staging boxing events, they're staging. Events, they're staging UFC events, they're staging for Dana White and his investment in power later staging power slab events.

I mean they fill these stadiums, they market our brands. We've got an unbelievable WW superstore I actually couldn't be more thrilled with the partnership in its current form and what I know is still to come.

From an FIP perspective, very active right now. We are in conversations with multiple cities across Europe. We're in conversations with multiple cities across Central Asia, really optimistic at some of the numbers I'm seeing there, albeit that duet.

Andrew, myself, Dean Garfield, who runs government relations for our company, best in the business. and Lawrence Epstein at the UFC, we have just returned from a trip to Africa where we are discussing staging our first ever UFC event.

So more to come on that. And then Ari and I are headed out to Abu Dhabi in the next couple of weeks because we are in the midst of a discussion on an extension of our deal with the team in that region. This, of course, coming on the heels of our highest grossing event ever in Abu Dhabi and UFC 333 just a couple of weeks ago.

So really in a good place. I think I'm also pretty bullish about some conversations that Nikon is having about bringing WWE to Tokyo next year. So more to come. No deal is done, but the runway is open, and we have clearance.

Andrew Schleimer

Unpacking a few more specifics on WrestleMania 27, while we can't give or won't give specific event economics I will tell you there are no KPIs in the agreement on visitation.

Our partners in Saudi at the GEA do retain the box office that does not in order to our benefit, unlike some of the other models that we're seeing now that the FIP effort has been developed more as we go to market.

So again, we get paid, as Mark alluded to, we received half our fee already. But despite where folks come from or what that sellout looks like in terms of demos, we're getting paid.

So that's number one. Number two, on the partnership side, this is an event actually that was legislated in our deal with ESPN and will actually be U.S. Prime for a WrestleMania PLE. So in terms of the media value, we are very excited that we'll be able to sell through to our existing partners that will get exposure as if this were a regular way PLD.

It may start just a bit early earlier than some of the other PLEs, but no issue on the partnership side. We will be working closely with our partners on selling some local partnerships, which we would share some revenue with them.

But otherwise, nothing to be concerned about there.

Mark Shapiro

And by the way, I think we benefit. I mean there's a full slate of number of matchups this weekend in Galich Football, a big ranking weekend. And having all of that -- those games around us in the afternoon and then into prime time is a good story for us.

The only other thing [indiscernible] did mention is our ability to add more events and we get asked about that. There's no limitations. And obviously, our partners would like to see us bring in more inventory.

But I can't say enough about this Walt Disney Company, Walt Disney World or land or resort event we're having on December 14. I mean this is such a win-win, and it just speaks to the strength of our partnership, right?

It's creating a new event. It's John Cena. It has our grade superstars, but then also gives great exposure in stage to our NXT upcoming superstars. We'll have 2 sellout events. Ticket sales, obviously flows through to us and then these great merchandise partnerships, including with Fanatics tied around the Avengers.

I mean the belt that Nick on and his team have developed just extraordinary. These are going to sell like hot cakes. So we're really thrilled with that. And we think we're going to push heads and beds, which is what's important to the wall Disney company.

And if it proves out, knows and we can't do more of the Shanghai, Paris, Anaheim, you name it. So a lot of great opportunity and a lot of great willing and creative partners like -- the Walt Disney Company.

Seth Zaslow

Operator, let's take one more question, please.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Peter Supino with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.

Peter Supino

A question on Boxing, please. As you think about your Zuffa business plan, breaking it down into the near to medium term, what are a few things that are the most important building blocks to accomplish just to advance the business plan? Maybe the question is for 2027. And then what are the things you worry about the most? How might this not work out?

Andrew Schleimer

Look, Peter, boxing our initiatives are ahead of schedule. You've heard us say that before. We're gaining meaningful traction on the Live Events side, as we've started in the quarter, moving events more frequently out of the Apex in Vegas to other cities, namely New York and London, et cetera.

So taking this product on the road and introducing our version of boxing to new customers through live events is important to us. You'll see more of that as we go into '27. Obviously, our 2 strong media right relationships with both Skydance and Sky will continue to be areas that we will work with them to invest in to enhance the in-home experience of our product.

But most importantly, are continuing to build our roster and getting behind personalities and human interest and leveraging social platform similar to how we've done to build storylines for UFC and WWE such that we will be able to get some of those organic moments that will be unique to our ecosystem.

The focus is going to be on talent and creating new talent and household names. So that's where we're spending a vast majority of our time. So if it's one out of the multiple things that we're talking about, that's that is most important right now.

Mark Shapiro

And look, Peter, the challenge is with any sport, whether you're already mainstream like UFC and WWE or your new kid on the block, right? You've got to build stars. You've got to build story lines. You've got to give people reasons to watch and buy tickets. You've got to build rivalries.

That takes time, and it's a fragmented marketplace, not just sports but for the entertainment eyeball not to mention the fact that most consumers want to just get out and not necessarily sit in front of their TV set.

So that's the challenge you have. I think we're making great strides in terms of signing up the fighters in terms of signing up marketing partners in terms of having the right media distribution platforms as our partners in terms of having Dana what Nikon leading is, you're not going to get a better team doing that.

And we're sitting in a good position. I think it will always be hard for investors to at least in the early going to model it because we don't break it out because we don't have majority. But one day, we will, and I think people will be pleasantly surprised.

It's a lot more expensive to go out there and try to find and bite off and buy some other leads to add to your portfolio. We are doing it efficiently. We are doing it with expertise and we are doing it organically without having to write a massive check upfront.

Seth Zaslow

All right. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call and for your interest in TKO. Operator, you can conclude the call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.