Postal Realty Trust (PSTL) 2026年第三季法說會：調升 AFFO 財測指引

郵政房產信託 (Postal Realty Trust) (NYSE: PSTL) 公布 2026 財年第三季每股 AFFO 成長、單季收購規模創新高，且預估槓桿率下降。在內部租金增長、收購增益效應與借貸成本改善的支撐下，管理層上調了全年度 AFFO 與收購財測。

重點摘要

• 第三季每股 AFFO 為 0.36 美元，較去年同期增加 0.03 美元或 9.1%。管理層將此增長主要歸因於內部成長及收購增益。
• 該公司在該季度以 8,200 萬美元收購了 145 處物業，加權平均現金資本化率為 6.9%，新增面積達 388,000 平方英尺。
• 全年度每股 AFFO 財測上調 0.01 美元至 1.42 至 1.44 美元。以中間值 1.43 美元計算，相當於年增 8.3%。
• 郵政房產信託將 2026 年收購財測上調至 1.85 億至 2 億美元，預期加權平均資本化率約在 7% 低段。前九個月收購總額約為 1.62 億美元。
• 投資組合出租率維持在 99.8%，歷史租約續租率則為 99.6%。管理層重申 2027 年同店現金營收成長 6.5% 的目標。
• 計入未結算的遠期股權後，預估淨債務對年化調整後 EBITDA 的比率降至 3.5 倍。該公司亦獲得惠譽 (Fitch) 授予 BBB 評等。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

第三季收購包含 101 處最後一哩郵局（總面積 130,000 平方英尺）及 44 處複合型物業（總面積 258,000 平方英尺）。重點資產包括位於紐約州布魯克林、明尼蘇達州聖保羅及康乃狄克州格林威治的物業。

管理層表示，其收購策略旨在實現首日增益，並透過租金市價重估機會、營運效率提升及每年 3% 的合約租金調升機制獲取內含成長動能。2020 年至 2022 年間以綜合資本化率 7.1%、總計超過 3.7 億美元收購的物業，自收購以來現金收益率已提高約 200 個基點。

第三季收購的首日增益約為 90 個基點。管理層亦指出，若收購後的收益率提高 200 個基點，每額外增加 5,000 萬美元的收購規模即可帶來 100 萬美元的 NOI。

租賃執行力仍是內部成長的核心動能。2026 年的所有租約均已處理完畢，目前正積極與美國郵政署 (USPS) 協商 2027 年的租約。除了適用既有續租選擇權的租約外，大多數 2027 年新租約預計將具備 10 年租期及每年 3% 的租金調升條款。

截至季末，60% 的租約包含每年租金調升條款，55% 的租期為 10 年，若計入截至 2027 年已執行及已達成協議的租約，加權平均租約期限為 6.4 年。

郵政房產信託在該季度內及季後透過其現價發行 (ATM) 計畫籌集了 1.17 億美元，其中尚有 8,300 萬美元的淨收益待結算。此外，公司還發行了 700 萬美元的營運合夥單位 (OP units) 用於物業收購。計入未結算遠期合約後，總流動資金超過 3.4 億美元。

管理層財測

管理層將 2026 年每股 AFFO 財測上調至 1.42 至 1.44 美元，理由是收購規模增加及借貸成本改善。第四季經常性資本支出預計為 25 萬至 35 萬美元。

2026 全年的一般及行政現金費用預計將落在現行預測區間 1,150 萬至 1,250 萬美元的中間值或略低於中間值。第三季約 25 萬美元與信用評等、信貸額度重組及收購相關的費用，預計不會在第四季再次發生。

該公司預期 2026 年同店現金 NOI 成長將達到 6% 至 7% 區間的中間值，並重申 2027 年同店現金營收成長 6.5% 的目標。

管理層表示，未來的收購活動將取決於標的儲備、資金取得管道以及資本成本的契合度。在目前資本成本約為 6% 中段的情況下，若融資條件維持不變，公司認為現有的標的儲備將帶來顯著的首日增益。

風險與關注焦點

• 管理層指出，資本市場的波動是第四季收購時機與規模的不確定性來源。
• 收購回報取決於租金市價重估機會的落實、營運效率以及合約租金調升條款。各項資產的租約到期時程，以及現行租金與市場租金之間的差距各有不同。
• 利率風險仍是關注焦點。該公司於 10 月購買了 2,000 萬美元的遠期生效利率交換合約，以降低即將進行的債務交易相關風險。
• 有分析師提出美國郵政署 (USPS) 的季度虧損以及嚴重流動性危機預警。管理層對此表示，租約談判並未因此改變，並指出整個郵政網絡的租賃支出僅占 USPS 營運費用的 1.5%。
• USPS 出售物業可能會帶來收購機會，但管理層表示，該機構歷來並未針對其打算繼續作為主要租戶的物業主動進行售後租回。

分析師問答重點

收購收益率與內含成長：管理層表示，當某項資產能提供更大的內含成長與更強的穩定收益率時，以較低的資本化率進行收購是合理的。然而，每筆交易均經過個別承銷評估。

案源獲取：約 75% 的交易案源來自場外交易。管理層表示，許多賣方已持有物業數十年，其出售動機多源於生活重大事件、遺產規劃或流動性需求，而非特定的資本化率或報酬率目標。

AI 與營運槓桿：郵政房產信託正將 AI 應用於資料收集、驗證、盡職調查及收購工作流程。管理層表示，這些工具協助公司在未增加人力的情況下，完成了將近以往一般季度兩倍的收購規模。

股利政策：董事會的目標是將配發率維持在約 70% 或以下，以維護資產負債表的穩健性並保留現金用於再投資。管理層表示，隨著時間推移，持續的現金流成長與 REIT 配息要求可能會為股利帶來調升壓力。

USPS 資產出售：管理層表示，若 USPS 展開物業出售，郵政房產信託已準備好承接收購，但目前並無跡象顯示該機構正在規劃此類計畫。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Postal Realty Trust Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Jordan Cooperstein, Senior Vice President of Finance and Capital Markets. Welcome, Jordan.

Jordan Cooperstein

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. On the call today, we have Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer; Steve Bakke, Chief Financial Officer; Jeremy Garber, President; and Matt Brandwein, Chief Accounting Officer.

Please note the company may use forward-looking statements on this conference call, which are statements that are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking. These forward-looking statements are intended to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements and will be affected by a variety of risks and factors that are beyond the company's control, including, but not limited to, those contained in the company's latest 10-K and 10-Q and its other regulatory filings with the SEC. The company does not assume and specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Additionally, on this conference call, the company may refer to certain non-GAAP financial and operating measures such as funds from operations, adjusted funds from operations, adjusted EBITDA, annualized adjusted EBITDA, run rate adjusted EBITDA, net debt, pro forma net debt, occupancy, net operating income, same-store cash NOI and same-store cash revenue. You can find definitions and, to the extent available, tabular reconciliations of these and other non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the company's earnings release and supplemental materials available on the company's Investor Relations website.

With that, I will now turn the call over to Andrew Spodek, Chief Executive Officer of Postal Realty Trust.

Andrew Spodek

Thank you, Jordan, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today.

The third quarter marked another strong period of execution for Postal Realty. We delivered 9.1% AFFO per share growth compared to the same quarter last year and raised our guidance for the third time this year to a midpoint of $1.43 per share. We acquired $82 million of postal properties and are increasing our guidance to $185 million to $200 million at a low 7% weighted average cap rate for 2026. And we accomplished all of this while bringing leverage down to 3.5x pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA and achieving a BBB rating from Fitch.

To recap our acquisition strategy, we target properties that are day 1 accretive with embedded growth potential. We underwrite not just with the next quarter or year in mind, but looking multiple years to the future. The internal growth opportunity distinguishes us. I want to share a few figures that illustrate what this looks like. We acquired over 800 properties from 2020 to 2022, totaling north of $370 million at a blended cap rate of 7.1%. Since we've owned these properties, we have driven the cash yield approximately 200 basis points higher than where we acquired the properties by marking leases to market, creating operating efficiencies and adding 3% annual escalators in new leases. Every acquisition is different. The timing of lease rolls and the gap between current and market rents will vary. But across this large sample size, the results clearly show the NOI growth that the machine we've built has delivered.

On past earnings calls, we have stated that a better cost of capital will allow us to pursue a broader universe of properties with strong growth potential. Our third quarter results are an excellent illustration of what we can achieve with improved access to well-priced capital. We invested in high-quality postal real estate portfolios and individual assets in a wide range of markets from small towns to larger cities. Notable locations this quarter include a 33,000-square-foot property in Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn, 25,000 square feet at a facility in St. Paul, Minnesota, and a 2.8-acre property in the Central Business District of Greenwich, Connecticut. Our blended cash cap rate for the quarter was 6.9%, a healthy spread to our cost of capital, and we are excited about the NOI growth we expect to achieve.

Cost of capital dictates the opportunities we pursue. This discipline is reflected in the wider acquisition guidance range this quarter, and it is in line with our history of being highly responsive to the capital markets environment. I've never been more confident in our ability to deliver continued earnings growth given our robust acquisition pipeline, over $340 million of liquidity, including unsettled forwards, and the cost of capital we can deploy accretively.

With that, I will turn it over to Steve.

Steve Bakke

Thank you, Andrew. We've talked in prior quarters about our AFFO growth building blocks. And today, each of those building blocks is contributing meaningfully. First, we are retaining more cash after dividend payments than ever before as a public company, which we are utilizing to either pay down debt or acquire properties. Second, the day 1 accretion we generate from external growth is substantial, coming in at approximately 90 basis points in the third quarter. Lastly, same-store NOI growth is healthy, and we are on track to achieve the midpoint of our 6% to 7% same-store cash NOI growth guidance this year.

In the third quarter, we drove a higher acquisition volume at a slightly lower blended cap rate because of the substantial earnings growth we can derive from feeding our machine. For illustrative purposes, each $50 million of incremental acquisition volume adds $1 million of net operating income in a scenario where we expand acquisition yield by an additional 200 basis points after purchase.

Shifting to third quarter results. Yesterday, we reported AFFO per share of $0.36. This is in line with the second quarter due predominantly to operating expense seasonality and one-time expenses in the quarter. It is a $0.03 per share increase from the same quarter last year as we benefited from predominantly internal growth and acquisition accretion. Note that in last year's third quarter, we earned approximately $0.05 more from one-time lump sum payments.

Turning to our balance sheet. This quarter, we further fortified our capital position even while closing on a record volume of acquisitions. During and subsequent to the quarter, we raised $117 million via the ATM, of which $83 million of net proceeds remain unsettled. Additionally, we issued $7 million of OP units as part of property acquisitions. We added a summary of equity raising activity thus far this year on Page 9 of our supplemental.

As discussed last quarter, we recast and expanded our credit facility in July. As part of the recast, in addition to increasing our capacity by $60 million, we added an investment-grade pricing grid that offers more favorable pricing upon achievement of an investment-grade rating, which we secured in August.

Looking at our balance sheet structure, after equity settled in the third quarter, our net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA stood at 4.4x. Inclusive of unsettled forward equity raised through October, pro forma net debt to run rate adjusted EBITDA was 3.5x. Even with no significant debt maturities until 2028, we remain focused on adding duration and further staggering our maturities to buttress our financial position. Combined with the U.S. Postal Service's strong tenancy, this gives us significant strategic optionality. Lastly, on the balance sheet front, in late October, we purchased $20 million of forward-starting swaps to begin proactively derisking a portion of our interest rate exposure related to an upcoming debt transaction.

Now on guidance. We are raising our AFFO per share range by $0.01 to $1.42 to $1.44 per share, representing 8.3% growth at the midpoint for the year. The increase is driven by higher acquisition volume and improved borrowing costs. Underlying assumptions include fourth quarter recurring capital expenditures in the range of $250,000 to $350,000. Full year 2026 cash G&A expense is expected to land at or slightly below the midpoint of our $11.5 million to $12.5 million guidance range. Note that in the third quarter, G&A included approximately $250,000 of expenses related to our credit rating, credit facility recast and acquisitions, which won't repeat in the fourth quarter.

Scaling relative to our G&A is one of our top priorities as a company. Our G&A ratio has improved each year since our IPO. And looking forward, we are excited about opportunities to empower the existing team here to cover more ground by applying AI and process automation tools across a variety of accounting, acquisition and operations workflows.

Lastly, our Board of Directors has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.245 per share, representing a 1% increase from last year. Our dividend payout ratio for the third quarter is approximately 68%, and our dividend yield as of yesterday was 4.5%.

With that, I will turn it over to Jeremy.

Jeremy Garber

Thank you, Steve. The third quarter was another quarter of strong operating results. Our portfolio remained 99.8% occupied, and our historical lease retention rate held at 99.6%, a reflection of the stable, predictable cash flows our business generates.

Our leasing activity this quarter further reinforces that stability. With 2026 leases behind us, execution of the 2027 leases with the Postal Service is underway. As I noted last quarter, as in prior years, 2027 new leases will include 3% annual rent escalations and the vast majority will have 10-year terms, excluding leases subject to existing renewal options. Finally, we are in conversation with the Postal Service on 2028 expirations, keeping us on track toward achieving our shared goal of fully executing new leases before the current leases expire.

With this quarter's leasing progress, 60% of our leases include annual rent escalations, 55% of leases contain 10-year terms, and our weighted average lease term stood at 6.4 years at quarter end, inclusive of executed and agreed-upon leases through 2027. Given our visibility into upcoming lease renewals, we are reaffirming our 2027 same-store cash revenue growth of 6.5%.

Now to acquisitions. During the quarter, we acquired 145 properties for $82 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 6.9%, expanding our footprint by 388,000 square feet. By property type, that included 130,000 square feet from 101 last-mile post offices and 258,000 square feet from 44 flex properties. Through the first 9 months of the year, we acquired 243 properties for approximately $162 million at a weighted average cash cap rate of 7.1%.

With that, we'll end our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

分析師問答

John Kim

On the acquisitions you made this quarter at 6.9% yield, how much of that was driven by the assets you acquired in Greenwich and Brooklyn? And can you talk about the upside potential that you see, maybe provide a stabilized yield once you get the mark-to-market and the change in escalators?

Andrew Spodek

Thanks for the question, John. So, the cap rate for this quarter was driven not just by the properties that we highlighted in the script, but some other properties that we believe have real embedded growth over the next couple of years. What we illustrated for the first time is that we're trying to show people what the results of not just the day 1 accretion and not just the efficiencies and synergies we're getting from operating, but also what we're gaining from marking these leases to market and getting those 3% escalators. And we're hopeful that what we've been able to do in the past, we'll be able to do in the future.

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank.

Greg McGinniss

The revised acquisition guidance implies just around $30 million of acquisitions in Q4 following a record Q3. Given your liquidity, is this conservatism, lumpy transaction timing or just reflective of the change in your current cost of capital? And then how should we kind of think about that going forward into 2027 as well?

Andrew Spodek

So, Greg, I appreciate the question. It's a combination of all those things and more. From what we've tried to illustrate to everybody over the years and what we've actually been showing is that our cost and our access to capital needs to tie out with our pipeline. And when all those 3 things align, then we're able to achieve what we're able to do this past quarter. Our conservatism or our estimate, which is a wider range of our acquisitions for Q4, is based on not knowing what all those things are going to tie out to for the fourth quarter, especially given the volatility in the market today. And so as we are able to access a good cost of capital and as we're able to buy properties that we believe not just have day 1 accretion, but have some embedded growth, we'll be able to execute on that, and we hope and plan to continue to do so.

Steve Bakke

And, Greg, this is Steve. Just adding to Andrew's point, with our cost of capital today in the mid-6% range, we're fortunate to have a healthy amount of day 1 accretion based on the pipeline of acquisitions we see today. So if our cost of capital holds, we can lean into that, as Andrew mentioned.

Greg McGinniss

And can I follow up on those lower-cap acquisitions from this quarter? Am I hearing you right that you're saying you think there's more internal growth for those lower-cap acquisitions than what you have been acquiring in the 7.1%, 7.2% range? And even -- and I think like the illustrative example in the presentation, which basically saying even if it was the same, greater acquisition volume does lead to greater growth. But curious if you're actually seeing more growth from the lower-cap assets.

Andrew Spodek

So that's a very good question. We look at and acquire a wide range of assets throughout this entire country. And so each asset and each acquisition really speaks for itself. When we see greater embedded growth or greater potential for that embedded growth, then we're able to buy things at a lower cap rate because we see that what the stabilized yield is going to achieve. But every deal really has to speak for itself. And we believe that the acquisitions we bought this quarter are really going to achieve the growth that we are really trying to accomplish.

Operator

Our next question comes from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan Chase.

Nahom Tesfazghi

You have Nahom on for Tony this morning. Maybe on the portfolio you guys purchased outside of the ROFO. I guess since Postal already manage these properties, how should we think about the embedded mark-to-market or lease term upside compared to traditional assets that you guys buy that you'll bring into your system and you get some expansion on?

Jeremy Garber

Yes. I mean this is a great example of long-term relationships and life events and how those play into our acquisition strategy. So this is a partner that I've been chasing for over 10 years, and made annual visits to them, and he experienced a life event in the past year and came to us and we moved forward with our acquisition team on underwriting these assets. These are great assets, assets we know, very typical of the type of assets we buy, growth profile very similar. There are some assets here in this portfolio that have experienced our new lease form because, as managers of these assets, they get the benefit of the proprietary lease that we have. But yes, this was modeled the way every other acquisition is modeled. As Andrew described, we're trying to achieve day 1 accretion and acquire assets that have embedded growth.

Nahom Tesfazghi

Got it. And maybe as a follow-up, sticking on the transaction market: I think on prior calls, you guys have mentioned that mom-and-pop sellers in the market aren't necessarily solving for a cap rate or an IRR. Could you walk us through maybe what they are actually optimizing for and how that maybe shapes your approach to sourcing and pricing?

Andrew Spodek

It's really a very difficult thing to answer, just given the amount of volume of not just deals, but owners and sellers that we're dealing with, talking to and transacting with on a daily basis. And it doesn't necessarily have to be a significant theme amongst them. If I had to give you some commonality, it is something along the lines of what Jeremy is saying, which is the average owner is in their 60s to 80s. The average owner owned their building more than 50 years. And so life events or the thought of life events or estate planning or liquidity or things like that, that that people consider at that stage of life is probably most of the larger percentage of transactions that come to us.

But you also have to understand that 75% of our deal flow is actually off-market. And so these are people that we've been talking to over long periods of time, like Jeremy was doing or like the transaction in Greenwich. I've been working on that deal for probably 30 years. The Brooklyn transaction is not an owner that I was dealing with for a long time, but came through a relationship, right? These are off-market deals that people are not really explaining to you specifically why they're transacting. But if I had to put a theme on it, I would say life events and age.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Roberts with Jefferies.

Matthew Roberts

This is Matt on for John. Curious to hear more on AI usage of the company, especially with regards to acquisitions. And then second, how is the company thinking about future dividend growth now that AFFO growth has accelerated?

Steve Bakke

Great question. This is Steve. As it relates to AI, there are a lot of ways that we're deploying it across the platform. What we found so far is rather than any grand solutions, we can plug AI into existing processes and increase efficiency and allow the team to take on more. As it relates to acquisitions, we have a variety of due diligence items and checklists that we put together where we're gathering data, vetting data, checking data, and AI can help increase the speed and efficiency with which we do that, and help us, like the current quarter, acquire almost double the typical quarter without adding any additional personnel.

As it relates to the dividend, I'll start by saying it's a Board decision, but there are a few overlays that we look at the dividend recommendation through. The first is our capital strength and the credit we get with various constituents on the lending side for having a low payout ratio. 70% or lower feels to us like an appropriate number to keep a strong financial position. The second piece is the retained cash flow. By retaining more cash flow and reinvesting in the business, while the dividend is lower today, the deployment of that cash flow can accelerate our AFFO growth and ultimately lead, we believe, to higher dividends in the future.

So that's really what excites and motivates us is that long-term growth. And the last piece on the dividend is maintaining our REIT compliance. So we have to pay out 90% of our net income. As we have grown our cash flows, we've gotten closer and closer to that point where we are paying out close to the minimum that we can pay out to maintain REIT compliance. So I think that will be an upward pressure on our dividend over time to the extent our cash flow continues to grow.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim

Looking at the USPS's latest quarterly results, they had a 6% increase in revenue, but another quarter of losses, $2.5 billion this quarter, and the Postmaster General warned of a severe liquidity crisis, which I know they've used that language or similar language in the past. But I guess my question as it relates to Postal, have negotiations changed at all because of their situation? And do you think the USPS is more likely to sell assets within its own portfolio to the market to help address this?

Andrew Spodek

I appreciate the question. I guess there are a couple of questions within your questions. So negotiations, number one, have not changed. Number two is we have to keep in mind that, like we said before, the leasing of the entire postal network is only 1.5% of the Postal Service's operating expenses. And it is the backbone of their entire delivery and operational business, what they need to deliver to the 170 million delivery points that they do 6 to 7 days a week. That is their business, and that is what they do, and they need these buildings in order to accomplish that.

In terms of them selling assets, I'm obviously biased, but I would argue you're right and that they should sell their assets. I can't tell you that they're actually going to do it or this is going to motivate them. But if it does, we are sitting here ready, willing and able to buy them. So I guess time will tell. But I think the Postal Service is actually more focused on the operations and trying to serve the American people the way that they always have.

John Kim

Can you remind USPS typically sell annually?

Andrew Spodek

I'm sorry, you broke up. I didn't hear that. Can you say that again?

John Kim

Can you remind us their track record of dispositions or selling assets?

Andrew Spodek

So they don't really have much of a track record. In the past, they did sell properties that -- and they did do a sale-leaseback on a portion of the property, but they didn't typically dispose of properties that they wanted to maintain a tenancy in a significant portion of the property. This is not something that they historically did on a proactive basis.

Operator

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Andrew Spodek for closing comments.

Andrew Spodek

We've made tremendous progress year-to-date, growing this highly scalable platform, backed by a growing rent stream from a tenant who pays 100% of the rent, 100% of the time. I've never been more confident in our ability to consolidate the postal real estate market, given our access to capital, robust pipeline and the strength of our team. We look forward to meeting at upcoming conferences and updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you again for joining us today.

Operator

We've reached the end of today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.