Par Pacific (PARR) 2026年第三季法說會：調整後 EBITDA 達 6.46 億美元與淨現金里程碑

重點摘要

• Par Pacific (PARR) 公布 2026 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 6.46 億美元，調整後淨利為 5.31 億美元，或每股 10.70 美元。
• 業績包含 2.22 億美元調整後 EBITDA 效益與 1.87 億美元調整後淨利效益，均來自 2025 年小型煉油廠豁免。
• 綜合煉油指數創下單季歷史新高，達每桶 38.45 美元，幾近 2025 年平均值每桶 12.40 美元的三倍。全系統利潤獲取率為 86%，在針對夏威夷價格滯後與大修影響進行標準化調整後，約為 98%。
• Par Pacific 在本季結束時擁有 24 億美元的流動性，其中包括 7.31 億美元現金，且為公司歷史上首次達到淨現金部位。
• 夏威夷再生能源業務產生 500 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，迎來首個獲利季度。9 月每日處理量達到約 3,700 桶。
• 管理階層預期第四季全系統煉油處理量平均約為 每日 200,000 桶（依各地區財測區間中位數計算）。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

全系統煉油處理量為 每日 174,000 桶。夏威夷每日處理 57,000 桶，反映了大修期間額外發現問題導致的工期延長；華盛頓與懷俄明每日處理量則分別為 40,000 桶及 19,000 桶。

蒙大拿廠創下單季處理量新高，達 每日 58,400 桶。每桶生產成本為 10.41 美元，若扣除 600 萬美元的焦化單元維護費用則為每桶 9.29 美元。管理階層表示，比靈斯（Billings）煉油廠的處理量已從收購前的約每日 50,000 桶增加至今年迄今的 56,000 桶，同時每桶生產成本已從 12 美元以上降至 10 美元以下。

夏威夷利潤獲取率為 54%，其中包括 5,200 萬美元（即每桶 10 美元）的價格滯後逆風及大修相關影響。標準化獲取率為 97%。洛磯山脈地區獲取率達到 109%，主要受惠於蒙大拿州的季節性需求以及懷俄明州 900 萬美元的先進先出法（FIFO）效益。華盛頓獲取率則為 89%。

夏威夷再生能源業務本季平均每日產量為 78,000 加侖，並處理芥花油、廢食用油與動物油脂等進料。管理階層正致力於提高可靠度，並優化前處理及加氫處理單元。

零售同店燃油銷量年增 2.1%，店內商品銷售額則成長 1.9%。食品銷售額成長 11%，占店內總銷售額的 10% 以上。

Par Pacific 本季償還了 2.43 億美元的資產擔保貸款（ABL）借款，並買回 1,000 萬美元普通股。該公司還出售了與 2025 年小型煉油廠豁免相關的約 2 億美元超額 RINs，其中約半數現金收益已於第三季結算，其餘預計於第四季結算。

管理階層財測

綜合煉油指數在 10 月平均達每桶 41.34 美元，比第三季平均高出約 3 美元。管理階層表示，夏威夷利潤獲取率受到較高的潔淨油品運費轉嫁率，以及西海岸至新加坡蒸餾油價差擴大的支撐。

該公司預計終止其夏威夷原油中介融資機制，並動用約 1.5 億美元現金購回相關庫存。管理階層估計，此項變更每年將減少約 1,400 萬美元的營運資金融資成本。

在滿足慣常條件的前提下，出售 Laramie Energy 的交易仍預計於第四季完成交割。Par Pacific 預計在交割時獲得約 1.2 億美元現金收益，並在未來五年內獲得額外的固定對價以及基於天然氣價格的對價。

風險與關注焦點

• 夏威夷業務仍受到海運原油成本、髒油輪運費，以及原油採購與成品油價格調整之間時間差的影響。管理階層指出，運費轉嫁條款及西海岸定價曝險帶來了抵銷效益。
• 夏威夷公布的利潤獲取率因合約價格滯後和大修影響而下滑，反映出季度獲利可能存在潛在波動。
• 中國成品油出口可能會隨出口配額的發放時間與規模而波動，不過管理階層表示，對中國整體政策的看法維持不變。
• 儘管第三季營運資金有所流入，但年初至今營運資金仍呈現超過 1.1 億美元的淨流出。管理階層預期，若大宗商品價格下跌，此情況將有所緩解。
• Par Pacific 預計在 2026 年全數用盡剩餘的聯邦淨營業虧損，此後將成為常態繳納聯邦現金稅的企業。
• 管理階層表示，強勁的煉油利潤率可能使買賣雙方在併購估值上更難達成共識。

分析師問答重點

管理階層表示，夏威夷的到岸原油成本取決於 FOB 原油價差、運費及市場結構。過去兩至三個月內，西海岸到岸阿拉斯加北坡原油（ANS）價差擴大了每桶 10–15 美元，而潔淨油品運費轉嫁率每桶上漲 6–8 美元。此外，洛杉磯至新加坡的蒸餾油價差平均達每桶 30–40 美元（相較於第三季約 5 美元），提供了潛在的抵銷作用。

在成長型投資方面，管理階層指出了提升夏威夷處理較輕原油能力的相關專案。在蒙大拿州，成本低於 1,000 萬美元的專案可增加每日高達 1,000 桶的柴油或航空燃油產量，而烷基化單元工程則可將產能提升 10%–20%。

針對夏威夷再生能源業務，管理階層表示其名義產能接近每日 4,000 桶。該專案是以 40% 的內部報酬率進行評估，意味著每年約可貢獻 3,500 萬美元的 EBITDA，不過實際表現仍將取決於開工率與市場狀況。

Par Pacific 仍將美國西部具備顯著綜效的潛在收購案列為優先，但表示並不急於完成交易。相較於長途管線，物流投資更可能集中在現有核心市場內的較小型專案。

管理階層表示，未來的小型煉油廠豁免仍難以預測。其基準假設能源部與環境保護局將維持現有的相對評分架構。

電話會議逐字稿全文

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Par Pacific Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashimi Vitter, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ashimi Patel

Thank you, Sarah. Welcome to Par Pacific's Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Will Monteleone, Richard Creamer, Shawn Flores and Jerry Stumbo. Before we begin, note that our comments today may include forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statements are subject to change and are not guarantees of future performance or events. They are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise them. I refer you to our investor presentation on our website and to our filings with the SEC for non-GAAP reconciliations and additional information. I'll now turn the call over to our President and Chief Executive Officer, Will Monteleone.

William Monteleone

Thank you, Ashimi, and good morning, everyone. Before I turn to results, I want to note a leadership transition in our refining and logistics organization. After many years of outstanding contributions, Richard Creamer is transitioning to a senior adviser role ahead of his retirement next spring, and Jerry Stumbo has joined us as Executive Vice President of Refining and Logistics. Richard built a reliable, disciplined operating organization that is a significant part of the results we are reporting today, and we are fortunate to retain his counsel through the transition.

Richard will walk through our operational results on today's call, and Jerry will take that role beginning next quarter. I'm excited to welcome Jerry to the team and believe his experience, character and resilience will be critical ingredients to drive our operations to the next level. I couldn't be more excited to work side-by-side with him to build an even stronger business. Turning to the quarter. Strong financial results were driven by solid reliability and commercial execution from our core operations. Third quarter adjusted net income was $10.70 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $646 million, including a small refinery exemption benefit of $222 million.

We safely and successfully completed Hawaii's plant-wide turnaround and returned the facility to full operations, and our mainland refineries ran well during the peak summer margin environment. The refined product market environment strengthened through the quarter, and our combined market index averaged a quarterly record of $38.45 per barrel, nearly 3x the 2025 average of $12.40 per barrel. Constrained Persian Gulf and Russian refined product exports, restricted Asian refiner throughput and continued trade protectionism remained critical factors that limited refined product supply. Demand remained resilient.

Looking forward, global refined product inventories remain tight and structural factors supporting refining margins remain intact. Overall, Asian refinery runs remain constrained as the ability to run long-haul import/export refineries and an elevated freight rate environment faces pressure. Increasing waterborne LNG prices are also major factors for both Europe and Asia as we head into winter. The value of local manufacturing is going up in a more volatile world.

Turning to retail. Same-store fuel volumes and in-store sales increased by 2.1% and 1.9%, respectively, compared to the third quarter of 2025, reflecting continued momentum. Our enhanced food offering remains a key driver of in-store performance with food sales growing 11% over the same period and now representing more than 10% of total in-store sales. There is plenty of room to grow this valuable revenue stream. We're also encouraged by the early performance of our most recent new-to-industry location, which is exceeding underwriting expectations and demonstrating the value of our differentiated food and merchandising strategies.

On the strategic front, our Hawaii renewables business reached an inflection, generating a profit during the quarter. Renewable diesel production ramped quickly following July's turnaround with September throughput of approximately 3,700 barrels per day. Just as encouraging, the business is operating at a competitive operating expense per gallon, which is essential to the long-term durability of the platform. Separately, the sale of Laramie Energy remains on track to close in the fourth quarter, subject to customary closing conditions. We expect to receive approximately $120 million in cash proceeds at closing with additional fixed and natural gas price-based consideration over the following 5 years.

Our balance sheet is in the strongest position in the company's history. We ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $2.4 billion. And for the first time, the company is in a net cash position. This is a meaningful milestone and a major strategic asset for a cyclical business. Our focus remains on day-to-day reliability, executing low capital, high-return growth projects and opportunistically repurchasing shares. In closing, continued operational discipline, commercial execution and capital allocation are translating in a constructive market into durably stronger free cash flow per share. With that, I'll hand it over to Richard, who will walk through our Refining and Logistics results.

Richard Creamer

Thank you, Will, and good morning. Let me begin by welcoming Jerry to the team. I'm excited that he's here, and I look very forward to the bright future for him and Par Pacific ahead. Hawaii had a busy quarter, and I want to recognize the logistics team for their excellent hurricane preparation and response along with the well-executed changeout of the single point mooring system. In addition, the refining team successfully executed their turnaround, ending with a quality onetime refinery restart. We're very proud of the Hawaii team and their efforts to reliably support the entire island community.

Third quarter refining throughput was 174,000 barrels per day. In Hawaii, throughput was 57,000 barrels per day and production costs were $8.45 per barrel. The lower throughput was related to extended turnaround discovery work. The refinery is now positioned for a 5-year run and is benefiting from several project completions that support the improved onstream reliability and annualized capacity. Hawaii Renewables throughput was 78,000 gallons per day and production costs were $0.38 per gallon. Following the turnaround, we saw strong throughput rates and continue to broaden and prove out our feedstock flexibility.

In Q3, we successfully processed canola, yellow grease and tallow feedstocks. Now our forward focus shifts to sustaining reliable operations and optimizing the pretreatment and hydrotreater units. Shifting to Washington, throughput was 40,000 barrels per day and production costs were $4.68 per barrel. In Wyoming, throughput was 19,000 barrels per day and production costs were $9.27 per barrel. In Montana, throughput was a quarter record 58,400 barrels per day and production costs were $10.41 per barrel. Excluding $6 million of OpEx related to coker maintenance, routine production costs were $9.29 per barrel.

It's worth a moment to reflect on the progress we've made at Billings since the acquisition. Prior to our ownership, the refinery operated at approximately 50,000 barrels per day with production costs exceeding $12 per barrel. Through disciplined reliability investments and consistent execution, we've increased throughput to 56,000 barrels per day year-to-date while reducing production costs to below $10 per barrel. With a stronger operating foundation in place, we are adjusting our focus to the next phase of high-return growth projects and logistics improvements to further enhance the refinery's earnings potential.

Moving to the fourth quarter. With our planned maintenance events behind us, refining throughput guidance reflects strong Q4 demand. We expect Hawaii between 85,000 and 89,000 barrels per day, Washington between 39,000 and 42,000, Wyoming between 16,000 and 18,000 and Montana between 53,000 and 57,000, resulting in a system-wide midpoint of 200,000 barrels per day. Hawaii Renewables throughput is expected between 2,800 and 3,400 barrels per day, reflecting continued feedstock optimization and operating flexibility. I'll now turn the call over to Shawn to cover the financial results.

Shawn Flores

Thank you, Richard. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $646 million and adjusted net income was $531 million or $10.70 per share. Our third quarter results include a gain related to the 2025 small refinery exemptions of $222 million in adjusted EBITDA and $187 million in adjusted net income. These amounts reflect the expected pre and post-tax cash benefits based on September 30 RIN prices. For comparability, the upcoming refining segment commentary will exclude the impact of these SRE benefits.

The Refining segment generated third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $396 million compared to $561 million in the second quarter. Our third quarter combined refining index was $38.45 per barrel, an increase of approximately $5.50 per barrel compared to the second quarter. System-wide capture was 86%, reflecting the impacts of Hawaii contractual price lag and turnaround activities. Excluding these items, normalized capture was approximately 98%. Starting in Hawaii, margin capture was 54%, including a net price lag headwind of $52 million or $10 per barrel. Capture was also impacted by June turnaround downtime with the associated margin effects recognized in the third quarter.

Normalizing for these items, Hawaii capture was 97%. In the Rockies, combined capture was 109%, supported by strong seasonal demand in Montana and a $9 million FIFO benefit in Wyoming. In Washington, capture was 89%, reflecting a normalization of West Coast jet to diesel spreads compared to the first half of the year. Shifting to our newly created Renewables segment. Renewables adjusted EBITDA was $5 million, reflecting supportive environmental credit prices and renewable diesel margins. Due to downtime associated with the refinery turnaround, third quarter renewable throughput and sales volumes were approximately half of what we would expect at normalized operating rates.

Turning to Logistics. Adjusted EBITDA was $31 million in the third quarter, partially impacted by lower asset utilization during the Hawaii turnaround. Our Retail segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $19 million in the third quarter compared to $17 million in the second quarter, reflecting improved fuel margins during the first half of the quarter. Moving to cash flow. Cash from operations was $839 million, including a $387 million working capital inflow and $50 million of turnaround expenditures. The working capital inflow primarily reflected the reversal of elevated receivables and equity funded product inventory from the second quarter.

Despite the large inflow, our year-to-date working capital change remains an outflow of over $110 million, which we would expect to unwind as commodity prices decline. Separately, during the quarter, we sold approximately $200 million of excess RINs associated with our 2025 small refinery exemptions. Approximately half of the cash proceeds settled during the third quarter with the balance expected in the fourth quarter. Third quarter capital expenditures, including turnaround costs, totaled $87 million, bringing our year-to-date spending to $205 million. With our major maintenance activities behind us, we expect full year capital and turnaround costs to finish slightly above our 2026 guidance range.

Shifting to the balance sheet and capital allocation. We fully repaid our ABL borrowings of $243 million and repurchased $10 million of common stock during the third quarter. As of September 30, total liquidity was $2.4 billion, including a cash balance of $731 million. As part of our ongoing efforts to optimize our capital structure, we expect to terminate our Hawaii crude intermediation facility in the near term. We plan to use approximately $150 million of cash on hand to repurchase the related inventory and transition the collateral to our ABL facility, reducing annual working capital funding costs by approximately $14 million per year.

Finally, we expect to fully utilize our remaining federal NOLs this year. We entered 2026 with approximately $775 million of NOLs, providing a significant cash tax benefit of over $160 million. With these NOLs fully utilized, we anticipate becoming a regular federal cash taxpayer going forward. Looking to the fourth quarter, our combined refining index averaged $41.34 per barrel in October or $3 per barrel above the third quarter average. In Hawaii, we expect our fourth quarter crude differential to land between $9 and $11 per barrel, reflecting crude purchases made during the third quarter. Quarter-to-date Hawaii capture is supported by higher clean product freight pass-through rates and wider West Coast to Singapore distillate spreads.

Across our Mainland system, we are well positioned to benefit from the widened Brent-to-TI spreads and heavy crude differentials, particularly in Washington and Montana, where our combined heavy crude throughput averages 50,000 barrels per day or 25% of our system-wide feedstock mix. Overall, we entered the fourth quarter with a strong outlook and significant financial flexibility. Looking ahead to 2027, we see attractive opportunities to compound recent earnings through organic growth investments while maintaining an opportunistic approach to share repurchases. This concludes our prepared remarks. Sarah, we'll turn it back to you for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Matthew Blair with TPH.

分析師問答

Matthew Blair

Congrats on the strong results. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about the impact of rising tanker rates on your business. You provided that $9 to $11 per barrel Hawaii crude diff in Q4. Is there any idea where Q1 is trending so far on that metric? And then clean rates are also moving up. Can you talk about how that supports you in the Hawaii product market?

Shawn Flores

Matthew, thanks for the question. Yes, I'll start by sort of giving some context on Q4, and we're -- we typically don't give guidance out beyond the upcoming quarter, but I think I can help sort of set the stage and what we're seeing in the prompt market. As I mentioned, the fourth quarter Hawaii crude diff is guiding between $9 and $11 per barrel, which is actually softer relative to the third quarter. And just keep in mind, we're typically buying crude 2 to 3 months in advance. And so that's really indicative of crude that we bought in the early part of Q3.

Obviously, since then, dirty freight and market structure have widened materially. I think the best proxy to look at is delivered ANS differentials to the West Coast. And over the last 2 to 3 months, those differentials have widened by $10 to $15 per barrel. So, I think that gives you some context of the types of crude that we're competing against in the market. But keep in mind, as you mentioned, we have meaningful offsets to the dirty freight exposure. On the sort of revenue side, all of our contracts include clean product freight pass-through rates. And over the same time period, those rates are up $6 to $8 per barrel.

We also have a fair amount of exposure to West Coast pricing. And when you look at L.A. versus Singapore spreads, particularly on the distillate side, those have been averaging $30 to $40 per barrel relative to about $5 per barrel in the third quarter. So, those are meaningful offsets that we expect to support capture in Hawaii. Those may not sort of materialize exactly in the same quarter. The clean product freight comments and West Coast spreads is a prompt comment. And obviously, we have the lag on the crude side.

I think the other thing that I just wanted to remind you of is our exposure to the heavy Canadian crude differential on the mainland. We run about 50,000 barrels a day of heavy crude. We've seen those differentials widen out by $15 per barrel over the last month or so. And so, I mean, overall, our system, I think, provides a really natural balance between Hawaii and the Mainland. And I think we're able to offset much of the waterborne freight and Brent-to-TI spreads that you're seeing in the market. And Will, anything else you'd like to add?

William Monteleone

No. I mean, I think, Matthew, the only thing I'd point out too is keep in mind the delivered waterborne freight number or the delivered all-in crude cost to Hawaii is really made up of 3 factors, right? It's the kind of the origin point or FOB differentials on crude freight and then market structure. And I would just point out that if -- what we're seeing is in regions that are exporters of crude that are an extended distance from their typical markets are having to discount the FOB crude in order to clear into the market.

So, in the same time period, we've seen FOB crude differentials move from plus 3 to 5 to minus 5 to 8 in certain markets. So, again, it's -- there's a number of variables that move in ensuring that crude is clearing the market. And I think I'd just point that out. I think Shawn gave you the best proxy with respect to the delivered ANS values, and that gives you a good sense of where the market is today.

Operator

Your next question comes from John Royall with Piper Sandler.

John Royall

So my first question is just on potential M&A. We've seen some activity out in the market kind of across the size spectrum for independent refiners. Bless you, can you just update us on how you're thinking about refinery M&A more broadly post-Billings? And if there's any kind of geographic white space that you'd like to fill in?

William Monteleone

Sure, John. It's Will. I think broadly, it's there's not a lot that's changed in our M&A framework. And again, I think we continue to be focused in areas where we would have significant synergies. And ultimately, that's principally in the Western United States that would plug into our existing network. That said, I don't think we're in a rush to try and get things done. And I would recognize that we're in a very attractive margin environment, which typically is a challenging environment for which a buyer and a seller to get together, notwithstanding recent activity.

John Royall

That makes sense. And then my follow-up is on the balance sheet and having the ABL at 0 and over $700 million of cash on the balance sheet is a great position to be in. My question is, do you expect to keep the ABL at 0 and finance your working capital with cash from here? Or should we expect those balances to move back up a little bit?

William Monteleone

Yes. John, it's Will again. I think on just broader capital allocation, I would just say really our capital allocation framework remains consistent. And I'd say, first and foremost, we're really -- we're a growth company and are focused on building shareholder value over the next 5 to 10 years. And in a cyclical business, maintaining excess capital after a period of near record margins is particularly valuable. And we've seen this time and again in the refining business that balance sheet strength really affords us flexibility to be prepared to act when inevitably the cycle is going to change.

And so in terms of priority, I would just say we're always going to challenge ourselves and rethink our position. And I'd point you to the past to really understand how we're dynamically thinking about things and ensuring that we're deploying capital in the most effective and risk-adjusted manner. So I mean, since 2023, I would point you to, we've repurchased our shares and have found that to be a particularly valuable allocation and deployed nearly $360 million and reduced our share count by 20%.

And at other times, you've seen us active on the M&A side. And it is difficult to predict when those opportunities emerge. And at other times, you've seen us execute organic capital projects like the approximately $100 million opportunity at Hawaii Renewables. So, I really just give you that context because it gives you a sense of how we think. And I'd also just say at the same time, we don't rest on our past and remind ourselves that we're only as good as our next capital deployment decision.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman

You mentioned in your prepared comments that you're shifting to high-growth projects in Montana and you've kind of increased capability in Hawaii out of the turnaround. So wondering if you could walk through some of the details on that. Any color on potentially increasing crude flexibility and/or the future ability to increase capacity at the sites?

William Monteleone

Yes. Sure, Jason, it's Will. I think in Hawaii, the opportunities we're pursuing there are really to increase our ability to run lighter crudes. And I would say it's early, but we're encouraged by the rates that we're seeing out of Hawaii post turnaround and have found -- again, there's times where we're able to get over 90,000 barrels per day. Again, I think it's too early to call that consistent, but I think we're encouraged by the results we're seeing there.

In Montana, I would tell you, it's about a mix of crude flexibility, but then also product yield flexibility. And again, I think we've got a number of projects that we think are going to expand our capabilities to run a range of inland crudes and then also have a number of debottlenecking projects that are underway. And these are probably less than $10 million projects that will allow us to expand our diesel production or our jet production by up to 1,000 barrels per day. And again, other projects inside the alkylation units that will allow us to debottleneck that unit by 10% to 20%. So, again, lots of low-hanging fruit in Montana that we're seeing. And again, I think we're excited to have a stronger operating foundation to start from that we can execute on some of these projects.

Jason Gabelman

Great. And my other question, just on the SRE disclosure. So, once you monetize these $200 million worth of RINs, will you be -- you'll still be current on your current RIN compliance?

Shawn Flores

Jason, it's Shawn. That's correct. Our sort of purchase cadence remains consistent with how we've approached it in the past. The RINs that we've sold that I referenced the $200 million is truly excess RINs, and we'd like to maintain a sort of assets that fully offset the potential obligation in the future.

Jason Gabelman

Got it. And if I could just squeeze one last one in. There's obviously been product pipelines announced going west by some of your peers as you look at kind of inorganic opportunities and logistics opportunities in kind of the western region of the country. Are those potential projects that can fit in your portfolio?

William Monteleone

Yes, Jason, I think I would say we look at lots of different opportunities, including those on the logistics side. Generally speaking, I think we're trying to find opportunities that have a build multiple that would be attractive for our cost of capital. And again, I think they're going to be probably smaller opportunities that fit within our core markets versus adding on to some of those long-haul pipes that are probably more focused on clearing Mid-Con barrels to the West Coast.

Operator

Your next question comes from Josiah Knight with Goldman Sachs.

Josiah Knight

I guess first one on China, reports of refined products coming out the region or more coming out of the region. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in real time and then how you see this evolving over the next near to medium term?

William Monteleone

Sure. Yes, this is Will. Josiah, thanks for the question. I think big picture, our view of Chinese policy and approach is really unchanged from where it's been. And I would just characterize that broadly as you're seeing refined product exports at flat to down over the last 5 years as they've rationalized kind of their approach to, let's just call it, internally focusing on serving the Chinese market for petrochemicals as well as transportation fuels.

So, we believe that framework remains the same. It's going to be volatile quarter-to-quarter based on the timing and frequency of export quotas. And so again, I think that's the kind of the main kind of, let's just call it, quarterly release valve that we're monitoring. And again, I think we did see some increase in exports during parts of the third quarter. Again, it does look like there's, again, increased quota volume available in the fourth quarter.

That said, I'd point out the Northeast Asian product balances are dynamic. China is clearly a factor. That said, a number of refineries that operate in Northeast Asia have long-haul freight on crude and are export-oriented and so have to pay the clean product freight outbound to try and clear the refined product in the market. So, given the dynamics on both the dirty freight as well as the clean freight side, you're in a more challenging environment if you're an export-oriented refinery in Asia.

Josiah Knight

Got it. That makes sense. And then the follow-up just on renewable diesel. You guys broke it out this segment and that positive EBITDA, which is nice to see. Can you just walk us through how you plan on continuing to ramp this segment maybe from a volume perspective? And additionally, any color you have on how you think about mid-cycle profitability for the segment?

Shawn Flores

Yes, Josiah, it's Shawn. I think Richard provided our fourth quarter guidance midpoint around 3,000 barrels a day. Our nameplate capacity there is closer to 4,000. So I think we'll continue to make progress in getting it up closer to nameplate over the coming quarters.

When we underwrote this project, we underwrote it at 40% IRR returns, which I think implies about a $35 million a year EBITDA contribution. We did $5 million in Q3. Obviously, volumes were about half of what we would expect in normal operating conditions. So I think that gives you a sense of sort of the margin potential in this type of margin environment. So I think the historical framework is the right one to go off of for now at $35 million a year. I think we would just note that the current margin environment is probably better than our underwriting case.

Operator

Your next question is a follow-up from Matthew Blair of TPH.

Matthew Blair

Did you have a baseline on what we should think about for SREs for next year, so essentially the 2026 SRE applications that you would potentially receive in 2027? Do you think investors should just pencil in 0 here because absolute refining profitability was so strong in 2026? Or is it more of a relative calculation and so the small refineries would still have the case to receive SREs?

William Monteleone

Yes. Thanks for that easy question, Matthew. I appreciate it. That's -- but no, I think very difficult to predict the approach that we'll be taking on a year-to-year basis. And again, I think our current baseline would be that the law and the approach that the DOE and the EPA go through remains consistent.

And again, the scoring frameworks are relative. And ultimately, I think that's probably the best way in which to evaluate the baseline, which, again, I think, again, you've got 2 years of history at which point to use as I think your best guide for the future. There's nothing that we've seen in the law or in the approach that we're seeing taken that suggests a different approach going forward.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Will Monteleone for closing remarks.

William Monteleone

Thank you all for joining today. The third quarter was a strong continuation of a year defined by execution, notably the successful completion of our Hawaii turnaround, our renewable business turning profitable in its first full quarter of operations and reaching a net cash position for the first time in the company's history. Our focus remains on disciplined execution as the durable path to growing earnings and free cash flow per share over time. Thank you to our employees for their focused effort through the quarter, and thank you all for joining us today.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.