CVR Partners (UAN) 2026 年第三季法說會：每股配息 1.79 美元與第四季產能利用率展望

重點提要

• CVR Partners LP (NYSE: UAN) 公布 2026 年第三季淨銷售額為 1.46 億美元，淨虧損 1,100 萬美元（即每普通單位虧損 1.02 美元），EBITDA 為 2,000 萬美元。
• 董事會宣布每普通單位派發 1.79 美元配息，預計於 11 月 23 日發放給 11 月 16 日收盤時登記在冊的單位持有者。
• 氨工廠產能利用率為 80%，反映了 8 月下旬開始並於 10 月完成的 East Dubuque 廠區計劃性停工檢修。
• UAN 銷售量總計約 32.7 萬噸，平均價格為每噸 309 美元。UAN 平均價格年減 11%。氨銷售量約為 3.6 萬噸，平均價格為每噸 637 美元，價格上漲約 20%。
• 管理層預計第四季氨產能利用率為 88% 至 93%，已計入 10 月完成 East Dubuque 廠區停工檢修的影響。
• 公司已建立 2026 年剩餘時間及進入 2027 年的訂單簿。管理層提及當地供應緊張、氮肥價格穩健以及美國天然氣的成本優勢為支持因素。

關鍵財務數據

扣除庫存與停工檢修影響後，直接營運費用較 2025 年第三季增加約 100 萬美元。較高的勞力成本被較低的電力與天然氣消耗部分抵銷。

業務與營運表現

East Dubuque 廠區的停工檢修減少了本季的產量與產能利用率。由於設備延遲，開工時間晚於最初計劃，但在修訂後的新時程下於 10 月完成。管理層指出，下一次計劃性停工檢修將於 2028 年在 Coffeyville 進行，這意味著公司未來兩年將沒有安排任何停工檢修活動。

夏季補貨歸零後，UAN 價格轉強，同時秋季氨需求強勁。管理層表示，玉米帶 (Corn Belt) 的轉運站可用容量有限，將秋季氨價格推升至當季最高水平。公司繼續以管理層所形容的理想價格預訂 2026 年第四季及 2027 年第一季的訂單量。

在 East Dubuque 停工檢修期間，CVR Partners 完成了舊廠擴建 (brownfield expansion) 及水質升級工程。公司計劃在第四季測試更高產能水平下的永續營運狀況。

在 Coffeyville 廠區，計劃中的項目包括水系統升級以及擴建柴油廢氣處理液 (DEF) 的生產與裝載能力。扣除停工檢修影響後，這些項目將有助於實現管理層將工廠運轉率維持在銘牌產能 95% 以上的目標。

公司還在完成 Coffeyville 原料選擇彈性項目的工程設計與成本估算。在獲得董事會批准的前提下，管理層預計將於 2027 年開工建設。該項目將允許該設施根據當前市場價格優化混合使用天然氣與第三方石油焦。

管理層展望

就 2026 全年而言，管理層預計總資本支出約為 9,500 萬至 1.04 億美元，其中包含 5,500 萬至 6,300 萬美元的維護性資本支出。

管理層預計利潤與成長型資本支出的很大一部分將由過去幾年累積的現金儲備提供資金。隨著項目執行與支出增加，董事會可能會繼續保留資金，這可能在短期內使現金餘額保持高位，並影響按季發放的可變配息。

風險與關鍵關注點

• 由於涉及俄羅斯、烏克蘭和中東地區的衝突，以及對航運路線的持續襲擊，全球氮肥供應仍存在不確定性。
• 中國出口量居高不下，而中東供應量正逐漸恢復，給全球化肥供應情況與價格帶來不確定性。
• 歐洲天然氣價格已上漲至每 MMBtu（百萬英熱單位）30 美元以上，相比之下美國價格接近每 MMBtu 3 美元。管理層表示，這使歐洲氨生產成本高於進口價格，並導致減產。
• 氮肥價格已從夏季低點回升，但玉米價格下跌使得化肥的負擔能力略低於夏末水平。
• CVR Partners 採用可變配息政策。配息金額可能隨營運結果、化肥價格、資本支出以及董事會決定的現金儲備而波動。
• Coffeyville 原料選擇彈性項目仍需進行最終工程設計、成本估算並取得董事會批准。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the CVR Partners LP Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Richard Roberts, Interim CFO and VP of [ FP&A ] and Investor Relations. Richard, please go ahead.

Richard Roberts

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today's call. With me today are Dane Neumann, our Chief Executive Officer; Mike Wright, our Chief Operating Officer; and other members of management. Prior to discussing our 2026 Third Quarter Results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. .

You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law. This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2026 3rd quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC for the period.

Let me also remind you that we are a variable distribution in -- we will review our previous sales reserves, current cash usage, evaluate future anticipated cash needs and may reserve amounts for other future cash needs as determined by our general partner's Board. As a result, our distributions, if any, will vary from quarter-to-quarter due to several factors, including, but not limited to, operating performance, fluctuations in the prices received for finished products, capital expenditures and cash reserves being necessary or operated by the Board of Directors of our general Department. With that said, I'll turn the call over to Dane Neumann, our Chief Executive Officer. Dave? .

Dane Neumann

Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for today's call. The summarized financial highlights for the third quarter of 2026 include net sales of $146 million, net loss of $11 million, EBITDA of $20 million, and the Board of Directors of CVR Partners' general partner declared a third quarter distribution of $1.79 per common unit which will be paid on November 23 to unitholders of record at the close of the market on November 16.

For the third quarter of 2026, our ammonia plant utilization was 80%, which was impacted by the planned turnaround at East Dubuque that began in late August and was completed in October. Apart from the turnaround, our facilities ran well during the quarter, and we continued to see steady demand across the system after the summer price reset. Since the summer, prices have steadily increased for both ammonia and UAN, and we have a good order book for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, which I will discuss further in my closing remarks. I will now turn the call over to Richard to discuss our financial results.

Richard Roberts

Thank you, Dane. Turning to our results. For the third quarter of 2026, we reported net sales of $146 million and an operating loss of $4 million. Net losses for the quarter were $11 million or $1.02 per common unit and EBITDA was $20 million. Relative to the third quarter of 2025, the decrease in EBITDA was primarily due to turn and expenses incurred in the quarter, along with lower UAN sales prices and a slight decline in sales volumes. .

Total volume production for the third quarter was 175,000 gross tons, of which 46,000 net tons were available for sale and UAN production was 294,000 tons. During the quarter, we sold approximately 327,000 tons of UAN at an average price of $309 per ton and approximately 36,000 tons of ammonia at an average price of $637 per ton. Relative to the third quarter of 2025, total sales volumes were down slightly, primarily due to reduced production volumes as a result of the CD turnaround. The reported prices for UAN decreased by 11% and ammonia prices increased approximately 20% relative to the prior year period. Direct operating expenses for the third quarter of 2026 were $90 million, including turn on expenses of approximately $27 million. Excluding inventory and turnaround impacts direct operating expenses increased by approximately $1 million relative to the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher labor costs, partially offset by lower electricity and natural gas consumption.

Capital spending for the third quarter were $75 million of which $21 million was maintenance capital. We estimate total capital spending for 2026 to be approximately $95 million to $104 million, of which $55 million to $63 million is expected to be maintenance capital. We anticipate a significant portion of the profit and growth capital spending for 2026 will be funded through cash reserves taken over the past few years. We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $203 million, which consisted of $158 million in cash and availability under the ABL facility of $45 million.

Within our cash balance of $158 million, we had approximately $43 million related to customer prepayments for the future delivery of product. In assessing our cash available for distribution, we generated EBITDA of approximately $20 million and had net cash gains of approximately $1 million for interest costs, maintenance CapEx and other reserves, which includes the release of approximately $42 million of previous reverses. As a result, we are $19 million of cash available for distribution and the Board of Directors of our general partner to start distribution of $1.79 per common unit.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter 2026, we estimate our loan utilization rate to be between 88% and 93%which will be impacted by the completion of the ECB turnaround in October. We have some direct operating expenses, excluding inventory current impacts to be between $58 million and $63 million. Turn on expenses to be between $4 million and $6 million and total capital spending to be between $26 million and $34 million. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Dane.

Dane Neumann

Thanks, Richard. In summary, the third quarter was another strong 1 for our operations, apart from the planned turnaround at East Dubique. The turnaround started a few weeks later than originally planned due to some equipment delays and was completed in October, in line with the revised schedule. The next turnaround is currently planned for 2028 at Coffeyville, and we look forward to 2 years ahead with no turnaround activity. Fall ammonia application is getting underway in the Corn Belt region as the harvest progresses, and activity is expected to pick up in the Southern Plains over the next few weeks.

Demand for ammonia has been strong and limited terminal availability in the Corn Belt has pushed fall pricing to the highest levels of the season. Offshore prices are firming ahead of the November Tampa settlement, although the gap between inland and seaborne ammonia prices remains wide. For UAN, the market firmed through the third quarter after the summer fill reset. Local supply remains tight the first spring 2027 prices were posted in early October.

We have continued to build our book of business for the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of 2027 at attractive pricing. The ongoing conflicts in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East continue to affect global nitrogen supply, including shipping through this rate or moves. Global supply remains a key variable. Chinese exports have been elevated and Middle East volumes are recovering gradually.

However, continued attacks on shipping highlight the persistent geopolitical risks impacting fertilizer availability and pricing. Our focus remains on safely and reliably running our plants at high utilization rates to meet our customers' needs. Natural gas prices in Europe have risen further since our last call to over $30 per MMBtu. That keeps ammonia production costs in Europe well above the current import prices and has led to some production curtailments. Meanwhile, U.S. nat gas prices remained near $3 per MMBtu.

We continue to believe the structural gap favors U.S. producers with access to low-cost secure feedstock. Nitrogen fertilizer prices have recovered from their summer lows, while corn prices have eased from their recent highs, although affordability is currently somewhat less favorable than it was in late summer. We believe the combination of tight local supply and constructive global balance and a solid forward book positions us well heading into the spring.

During the turnaround, we completed the brownfield capacity expansion, and we intend to test the ability to sustainably operate at the increased capacity level during the fourth quarter. We also completed the work on the water quality upgrade project. At the Coffeyville facility, we have a similar water system upgrade plan, along with the expansion of our DEF production and load-out capacity. The goal of these projects is to improve reliability and production rates, supporting our target of operating the plants at utilization rates above 95% of named capacity, excluding the impact of turnarounds.

We are in the final phases of completing detailed engineering and cost estimates for the feedstock optionality project at Coffeyville. And with approval by the Board of Directors of our general partner, we expect to proceed with construction in 2027. If completed, this initiative would make the Coffeyville facility the only nitrogen fertilizer facility in the United States with dual feedstock flexibility, providing us the ability to choose the optimal mix of natural gas and third-party pet coke depending on prevailing prices. The funds needed for these projects and other initiatives are coming from the reserves taken over the last few years and the Board elected to continue reserving capital in the third quarter.

While the Board looks at reserves every quarter, I would expect them to continue to elect to reserve some capital and we anticipate holding higher levels of cash related to these investments in the near term as we ramp up execution and spending. We believe unitholders will see the befits of these investments in the coming years as these projects are completed and brought online.

In closing, I would like to thank our employees for all their hard work during the turnaround and continuing to deliver on our marketing and logistics plans, resulting in a distribution of $1.79 per common unit for the third quarter. With that, we are ready to answer any questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have no questions at this time. I will now call back to Dane Neumann for closing remarks.

Dane Neumann

All right. Again, I would like to thank you all for your interest in CVR Partners and our employees for their hard work and commitment towards safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. We look forward to reviewing our fourth quarter 2026 results during our next earnings call. Have a safe day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.