Keurig Dr Pepper 2026 年第三季財報電話會議：銷售額成長 70%，重申展望

Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ: KDP) 在完成 JDE Peet’s 收購案後，公布 2026 年第三季成長強勁，美國清涼飲料的動能抵銷了美國單杯咖啡復甦低於預期的影響。除非另有說明，否則電話會議中討論的成長率均以經調整後及固定匯率為基礎呈現。

重點摘要

• 淨銷售總額成長 70.1%（含 JDE Peet’s）。原有 KDP 銷售額成長 8.6%，受惠於銷量/產品組合成長 6.5 個百分點及淨價格調升 2.1 個百分點。
• 調整後營業利益成長 52.5%，包含 9,900 萬美元的一次性關稅退稅利益。調整後 EPS 成長 22.2% 至 0.66 美元。
• 美國清涼飲料部門實現連續第八個季度達到雙位數銷售成長，淨銷售額成長 10.9%，營業利益成長 8.3%。
• 美國咖啡銷售額成長 2.7%，但由於單杯咖啡需求疲軟，加上額外的定價與行銷投資，管理層將全年原有 KDP 的 EPS 成長展望下修至 3%–5%。
• JDE Peet’s 創造了約 26 億美元的銷售額與 4.8 億美元的營業利益。其對全年 EPS 成長的預期貢獻上調至 7 到 8 個百分點。
• KDP 重申 2026 年固定匯率 EPS 成長率維持在低雙位數，並按計畫推進於 2027 年初拆分為 Beverage Co. 與 Global Coffee Co.，惟仍需視市場狀況而定。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

美國清涼飲料

部門銷售額成長 10.9%，反映了銷量/產品組合成長 7.2 個百分點及淨價格調升 3.7 個百分點。營業利益成長 8.3%，主因銷售額成長與生產力提升足以抵銷通膨及行銷費用增加的影響。

Dr Pepper 銷售額呈雙位數成長。Dr Pepper Zero 零售銷售額成長 25%，突破 10 億美元年化銷售額。公司亦新增 Jersey Mike’s 的現調飲料通路，並看好進一步擴展戶外通路的機會。

KDP 的能量飲料產品組合在該品類的市占率超越 10%，而收購 GHOST 時約為 6%。GHOST 成為該公司第四個零售銷售額達 10 億美元級別的清涼飲料品牌。管理層表示，在 GHOST、Bloom 與 C4 的推動下，KDP 的能量飲料產品組合目前創造了超過 15 億美元的淨銷售額。

Electrolit 零售銷售額成長超過 40%。該品牌在運動飲料市場達到 9% 的市占率，較三年前開始與 KDP 合作經銷時成長了一倍以上。

美國咖啡

美國咖啡銷售額成長 2.7%。銷量/產品組合貢獻了 6.9 個百分點，而淨價格則使成長減少 4.2 個百分點，原因在於 KDP 將回落的咖啡生豆成本透過促銷與通路推廣支出重新投資於市場。

咖啡機出貨量成長 16.7%，受惠於品類狀況改善、Keurig 銷量市占率趨勢增強，以及去年同期零售商去庫存帶來的比較基期。咖啡膠囊出貨量微幅成長 0.3%，得益於 Peet’s K-Cup 膠囊與新的自有品牌通路經銷。

營業利益成長 11.4%（含關稅退稅）。管理層表示，若扣除該利益，獲利較去年同期微幅下降，但較上半年大幅改善。

KDP 還透過 D2C（直營面對消費者）管道推出了 Keurig Alta 系統。這款高端咖啡機採用不含塑膠與鋁材的耗材，並能沖煮義式濃縮咖啡、滴濾咖啡及奶調飲料。

JDE Peet’s 與國際業務

JDE Peet’s 錄得約 26 億美元的銷售額與 4.8 億美元的營業利益。隨著咖啡成本趨緩，部分地區下調轉嫁價格影響了銷售額，但嚴謹的定價、生產力提升與收購綜效改善了獲利能力。管理層亦提到數個主要品牌的市占率趨勢持續改善。

KDP 國際部門銷售額成長 7.6%，其中包括價格調升 5.7 個百分點及銷量/產品組合成長 1.9 個百分點。營業利益下滑 0.6%，主因銷售額成長與生產力提升被咖啡生豆通膨、墨西哥飲料稅及行銷費用增加所抵銷。

管理層指引

管理層預計美國咖啡部門的獲利能力在第四季將繼續季增並實現年成長，但成長腳步較原先計劃放緩。此外，管理層亦預期 JDE Peet’s 的價格成本效益將較第三季水準有所趨緩。

KDP 預計透過變現其 Chobani 少數股權及出售一座非核心製造設施，獲得約 9.25 億美元的稅前收益（稅後約 7.8 億美元）。公司計劃將全數金額用於償還債務。

計劃中的拆分目標仍定於 2027 年初。KDP 表示，確切時間點將視市場狀況及其他慣例考量因素而定。

風險與觀察重點

• 管理層表示，由於中低收入消費者在經歷多年通膨推升的價格上漲後對價格更加敏感，美國單杯咖啡需求低於預期。
• 成本較低的產品形式（包括研磨咖啡、咖啡豆與即溶咖啡）表現優於單杯產品。自有品牌的滲透率也有所提升。
• KDP 正利用通路推廣支出、促銷與精準行銷來支撐咖啡需求，進而帶來近期的利潤權衡。
• 若扣除一次性關稅退稅，持續的通膨超出了價格調升與成本節省對原有 KDP 毛利率帶來的效益。
• 管理層提到美國清涼飲料部門面臨額外的物流壓力，包括能源與樹脂成本。
• 2027 年初的拆分部分取決於外部市場狀況，而強化資產負債表與降低槓桿比率仍是首要任務。

分析師問答亮點

• 清涼飲料韌性：管理層預期該部門的雙位數成長不會無限期持續，但仍看好氣泡軟性飲料、能量飲料、補水飲料及擴展經銷通路所帶來的進一步成長潛力。
• 咖啡展望：KDP 將更趨審慎的預測歸因於單杯咖啡消費較疲軟，以及旨在提升產品親民度的投資。JDE Peet’s 預期較高的盈餘抵銷了原有 KDP 展望的下修，使全公司 EPS 指引維持不變。
• 消費者行為：Keurig 的家庭滲透率保持健康，管理層預期 2026 年將有所增加。目前的壓力集中於既有家庭的使用頻率下降，而非廣泛的家庭用戶流失。
• 拆分進展：KDP 已建立領導架構，開始建置獨立的 IT 與財務申報能力，並正在為 Beverage Co. 與 Global Coffee Co. 擬定獨立的策略與資本結構。
• Chobani 合作夥伴關係：除了股權出售與設施交易外，KDP 還擴大了與 Chobani 的多年經銷合作夥伴關係。管理層預期可能在 2027 年推出包含高蛋白奶昔在內的即飲創新產品。
• 能量飲料：管理層對該品類的成長維持正面看法，並看到來自經銷通路擴展、新消費場景、女性消費者及便利商店以外通路的進一步潛力。

電話會議逐字稿全文

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Keurig Dr Pepper's Earnings Call for the Third Quarter of 2026. This conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to introduce Chethan Mallela, Vice President of Investor Relations at Keurig Dr Pepper. Please go ahead.

Chethan Mallela

Thank you, and hello, everyone. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release detailing our third quarter 2026 results, which we will discuss on today's call. An accompanying slide presentation is available and can be viewed in real time on the webcast. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that our remarks will include forward-looking statements which reflect KDP's judgment, assumptions and analysis only as of today. Our actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on a number of factors affecting KDP's business. Except as required by law, we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements discussed today. For more information, please refer to our earnings release and the risk factors discussed in our most recent Form 10-K and our latest 10-Q, which will be filed with the SEC in the coming days.

Consistent with previous quarters, we will be discussing our Q3 performance on a non-GAAP adjusted basis, which reflects constant currency growth rates and excludes items affecting comparability. Definitions and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP metrics are included in our earnings materials.

Here with us today to discuss our results ane Keurig Dr Pepper's Chief Executive Officer, Tim Cofer; and Chief Financial Officer, Anthony DiSilvestro. Russ Torres, the Head of KDP's Coffee operating unit and the future CEO of Global Coffee Co, will also provide brief prepared remarks. Given this is his first day at KDP, Russ will not participate in Q&A. I'll now turn the call over to Tim.

Timothy Cofer

Thanks, Chethan, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased with our third quarter results, which featured meaningful top and bottom line growth and healthy cash generation. We maintained our strong momentum in refreshment beverages, drove another quarter of solid performance in JDE Peet's and grew both top and bottom line in our U.S. coffee business.

Entering the home stretch of 2026, we remain on track to deliver our 3 key goals for the year: achieving our low double-digit EPS growth guidance, integrating JDE Peet's and capturing initial combination benefits and advancing key separation milestones.

As we close out the year, our teams are focused on meeting our commitments while also reinvesting behind our brands and strategic priorities to set up our future companies for long-term success.

Before turning to the quarter, I'd like to discuss an important announcement that we made last month. Following a rigorous global search, our Board of Directors named Russ Torres, as the future CEO of Global Coffee Co. He joined KDP today and will lead our coffee operating unit through separation. Russ is a proven leader with a decades-long track record of cultivating consumer brands, executing large-scale transformations, driving growth across global portfolios and building high-performing teams. He brings the ideal combination of experiences and skills to drive value creation at Global Coffee Co., and we're excited to have him on board. His appointment also marks 1 of the most critical steps in the separation process, and I look forward to partnering with Russ as we prepare to launch 2 stand-alone companies.

Now on to our third quarter results. Total net sales grew 70%, which included the benefit of the JDE Peet's acquisition. Legacy KDP net sales increased at a high single-digit rate led by U.S. refreshment beverages with KDP International and U.S. coffee also contributing. This increase was primarily driven by volume mix, along with positive net price realization.

Operating income grew over 50%, driven by the acquisition contribution, disciplined pricing to offset continued inflation, meaningful cost savings and a onetime tailwind from tariff refunds. We delivered these results while also significantly increasing legacy KDP marketing and reinvesting behind JDE Peet's. All in, including the below-the-line impact from financing costs, EPS increased over 20% in the quarter.

With that, let me walk through the segments. In U.S. refreshment beverages, net sales grew at a double-digit rate and operating income increased at a high single-digit rate. Similar to recent quarters, momentum was broad-based and anchored by continued growth in our largest category, carbonated soft drinks. CSDs benefited from a resilient category and good execution across our portfolio. Dr. Pepper led the way with net sales up double digits as the brand continued to gain market share. Our Dr Pepper Zero franchise remained a standout with retail sales growing 25% in the quarter and now exceeding $1 billion on an annualized basis. Importantly, we still have plenty of runway in this key platform.

We also made progress in away from home, with volume-led net sales growth during Q3. While Dr Pepper is the most widely available fountain beverage across major food service chains in the U.S., the brand still has attractive white space for our teams to pursue. For example, this quarter, we secured new fountain distribution at Jersey Mikes and we see a path to expand our presence in additional chains as well. This incremental distribution opportunity should serve as another ongoing tailwind for the brand.

At its core, the success of Dr. Pepper is rooted in its distinctive brand positioning, which we continually reinforce with compelling marketing. During Q3, we launched the latest installment of our Fansville college football campaign, which once again featured countless insights that resonate in the world of passionate college football fandom. But this year, we raised the game with more sophisticated capabilities, including precision targeting, more personalized content and a greater presence on social platforms. Early results are encouraging with the campaign delivering a double-digit improvement in return on ad spend versus the prior year, reflecting our ability to reach both existing and high-value prospective consumers with relevant and authentic messaging.

Among our other CSD brands, Canada Dry had a good quarter with net sales also up double digits. Like Dr. Pepper, Canada Dry continues to benefit from purposeful brand marketing and impactful innovation, including this year's strawberry fruit splash line extension, which performed well in the quarter. We also recently applied Dr Pepper and Canada Dry's proven growth playbook to 7UP, with a brand refresh that includes new graphics, a product reformulation and a clever marketing campaign repositioning the brand as a line forward alternative to other citrus sodas. While it's still early days, we've been pleased with the initial retailer and consumer response to 7UP activity.

In energy drinks, we achieved 2 notable milestones in the quarter. First, our portfolio surpassed a 10% market share position in the category, up from approximately 6% when we acquired GHOST just a couple of years ago. This progress has been driven by gains across the 3 major brands in our portfolio. GHOST, Bloom and C4, each of which maintains considerable untapped potential.

Second, GHOST became our fourth retail sales billion-dollar refreshment beverage brand, joining Dr Pepper, Canada Dry and Mats, which underscores the brand's consumer appeal. Got performance in the quarter was driven by continued distribution gains and accelerating velocities, including benefits from innovation. For example, the brand's A&W Root Beer limited time offering has resonated with consumers and proven incremental to the franchise, and we look forward to adding both this flavor and GHOST 7UP to our permanent lineup starting in 2027.

Finally, in hydration, our major brands performed well, reflecting our complementary portfolio's ability to address a range of consumer needs and occasions. Electrolit led the way in Q3 with over 40% retail sales growth driven by healthy velocities, continued distribution gains and effective display execution. The brand holds a 9% market share of sports drinks, which has more than doubled since the KDP distribution partnership began 3 years ago, and has now established itself as the clear leader in the attractive rapid hydration subcategory, with further expansion opportunities still ahead.

We also continued to grow our water brands, led by Vita Coco, Avion and Polar.

Overall, Q3 marked our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit net sales growth in U.S. refreshment beverages, underscoring the portfolio's strength across key categories, including powerful brand equities, differentiated distribution infrastructure and sharp in-market execution.

Now to coffee. We feel good about our business in aggregate with JDE Peet's delivering results ahead of our expectations, while U.S. coffee navigated a challenging category environment. Starting with U.S. coffee, although segment performance improved sequentially from the first half, the U.S. single-serve subcategory has been softer than we anticipated, with value-oriented coffee formats continuing to outperform. We view this dynamic as largely a reflection of the current macro backdrop, but it impacted our quarterly results.

Within this context, net sales grew at a low single-digit rate in the quarter, led by volume/mix, which included a benefit from Peet's K-Cup pods. This volume mix growth more than offset lower net price in the period, which was driven by reinvestment of moderating commodity costs to support affordability. By product line, brewer shipments accelerated sequentially in Q3 and grew at a double-digit rate.

Our precision marketing is delivering attractive returns and consumers are responding well to our new brewer visual identity, particularly for our refreshed K-Mini Made family. This progress is important because brewers are foundational to the Keurig ecosystem and serve as one of the leading indicators for future pod demand. Pod shipments also returned to slight growth in the quarter. This was primarily driven by company-specific factors, including the benefit of Peet's K-Cup pods, which we're beginning to activate through expanded price pack architecture and enhanced commercial programming as well as new distribution wins.

We also recently reached a key milestone for Keurig with the launch of our new Keurig Alta system. Alta is a premium brewer that uses a plastic-free and aluminum-free consumable to allow consumers to conveniently brew barista quality beverages at home. This modern brewer can produce the full array of coffee health beverages spanning from high-pressure espressos to low-pressure drib coffee. And with the integrated frother supports delicious cappuccinos, macchiatos and lattes. Through Alta, we expect to deepen engagement with existing households, broaden our appeal to additional coffee drinkers and ultimately reinforce our single-serve leadership in North America.

Our initial launch plan is purposefully measured and focused exclusively on direct-to-consumer channels, but we see significant long-term potential for this disruptive platform.

Turning to profit. Segment operating income grew at a double-digit rate, aided by onetime tariff refunds. Underlying profit trends also improved from the first half, but at a more modest pace than we had expected given the category dynamics I described.

Shifting to our other coffee segment. JDE Peet's delivered net sales of approximately $2.6 billion and operating income of $480 million. Two factors shaped segment top line performance in the quarter. First, on pricing, we have now fully lapped prior year increases. In addition, consistent with the pass-through nature of some of our coffee formats, we reduced prices in certain regions and products to reflect lower coffee costs. While these reductions weighed on net sales, they had a limited impact on profit, our disciplined implementation.

Second, marketplace performance strengthened, driven by the successful resolution of retailer negotiations and solid execution. We're encouraged by the improving market share trends we've seen recently for key brands, including Jacobs, [indiscernible] and some of our local icons.

Innovation was a positive contributor to this performance, helped by our platforming strategy to quickly scale promising products across multiple brands and geographies. For example, our well-received liquid espresso concentrate platform continued to expand in the quarter and is now available in 20 countries across a number of leading brands. We're applying the same approach to our more recent Machalate innovation, which launched in late Q2 and rolled out further in Q3. Platforms like these extend our portfolio into incremental occasions, many of which skew towards younger consumers and should support growth over time.

Moving to operating income. Segment profitability was strong, primarily reflecting disciplined pricing and our team's agile execution in a dynamic environment.

Finally, KDP International delivered solid results with net sales growing at a high single-digit rate, led by good momentum in refreshment beverages across our markets. In Mexico, net sales increased at a double-digit rate, primarily driven by pricing related to the recent beverage tax as well as modest volume growth from healthy underlying demand and share trends. Peñafiel was a standout performer in the region, with strength across both the core mineral water and the [indiscernible] and twist line extensions.

We also grew nicely in Canada, led by energy drinks and ready-to-drink teas. Segment operating income declined very modestly as the net sales increase was offset by inflationary pressures and investment phasing.

Overall, our third quarter results demonstrated good progress. We delivered on our plans, invested to strengthen each of our future businesses and advanced critical separation milestones.

I'll now turn the call briefly over to Russ, after which Anthony will walk through our financial results and outlook in more detail.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Tim. I'm honored by the opportunity to serve as the future CEO of Global Coffee Co, and to help the company shape the future of the coffee category. Over the past couple of months, I've done a lot of homework and build conviction in the value creation opportunity, and that is the key reason I'm here.

I believe coffee is an attractive category with significant untapped potential. It's large, resilient and part of the daily routines and rituals of over 1 billion consumers around the world. The category has grown volume consistently and benefits from structural consumer trend tailwinds that will support its long-term prospects. But most of all, experiences with coffee can create an emotional connection with people. And as a result, the coffee category is responsive to brand building and innovation in ways that can foster the creation of a powerful brand franchises with compelling economics.

And Global Coffee Co. is well positioned in this attractive category. We will launch with many compelling assets and strengths, including powerful leading brands and scale positions across formats, geographies and channels.

Global Coffee Co. possesses deep capabilities in critical areas like sourcing, blending, marketing and innovation. And perhaps the biggest difference maker will be unleashing the power of our people as a focused stand-alone coffee company. I've already met with a number of coffee operating unit leaders and have been very impressed with the talent and the capabilities across the organization. The energy they're showing for the future and the passion for the new mission is infectious.

Over the coming months, I'll be immersing myself in the business and spending time with our employees, customers and partners and working with the team to further develop and refine the strategy and operating plans for what will be the world's leading pure-play coffee company. I'm eager to get started, and I look forward to sharing our plans with you in more detail as we move into 2027.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Anthony.

Anthony DiSilvestro

Thanks, Russ, and good morning, everyone. Let me start by discussing our consolidated third quarter results. Total company net sales grew 70.1% in the quarter, including the benefit of the JDE Peet's acquisition, which closed in April. Excluding the JDE Peet's contribution, legacy KDP net sales grew 8.6% with volume/mix contributing 6.5 percentage points and net price realization adding 2.1 points.

Consolidated gross margin was 48.7%, 590 basis points below the prior year, primarily due to the mix impact of adding JDE Peet's to the portfolio. Excluding the acquisition impact, legacy KDP gross margin expanded 20 basis points including the benefit from tariff refunds. In the absence of tariff refunds, gross margin would have contracted as continued inflationary pressures more than offset the margin benefits of pricing and cost savings.

SG&A as a percent of sales improved 320 basis points. Excluding the mix impact from JDE Peet's, legacy KDP SG&A deleveraged 10 basis points as a double-digit increase in marketing more than offset productivity savings and disciplined cost management.

In total, Q3 operating income increased 52.5%. This included a $99 million onetime benefit from tariff refunds or $0.05 per share, which was disproportionately weighted to our U.S. coffee segment. Including the below-the-line impact from acquisition financing, EPS grew 22.2% to $0.66.

Turning now to our segment results. U.S. Refreshment Beverages net sales increased 10.9%, driven by 7.2 percentage points of volume/mix growth and 3.7 points of net price realization. Gains were broad-based, led by energy, CSDs, sports hydration and waters.

Segment operating income grew 8.3% and as higher net sales and productivity savings more than offset cost inflation and higher SG&A, including increased marketing.

Moving to U.S. coffee, where net sales increased 2.7%. Volume/mix contributed 6.9 percentage points, including a benefit from our recent reporting ship to recognize the full Peet's K-Cup pod economics in the segment.

Within volume/mix, brewer shipments accelerated sequentially and increased 16.7% versus the prior year. This was driven by the combination of a strengthening coffee maker category backdrop and improving Keurig volume share trends as the quarter progressed as well as lapping prior year retailer destocking activities.

Odd shipments increased 0.3%, driven by the contribution from Peet's K-Cup pods as well as some new private label distribution wins. Net price realization reduced net sales by 4.2 percentage points, partially offsetting volume/mix growth. This reflected reinvestment of moderating green coffee costs through trade spending and promotions to optimize near-term price points and price gaps.

Turning to profit. Segment operating income increased 11.4%, which included the benefit of onetime tariff refunds. Excluding the refunds, underlying profit trends also improved from the first half as favorable volume mix, productivity savings and cost synergies more than offset lower net price realization, inflationary pressures and increased marketing.

Looking to Q4, we anticipate a further improvement in the underlying profit trend. However, given the category challenges that Tim described earlier, we are now expecting a more gradual recovery than we had initially planned, which is reflected in our full year guidance.

Our JDE Peet's segment generated $2.6 billion in net sales and $480 million in operating income in the third quarter. Segment profitability was primarily driven by favorable pricing net of cost inflation, robust productivity savings and cost synergies.

Looking to Q4, we expect these drivers to persist, though the price/cost benefit should moderate from Q3 levels. Overall, we expect to have flexibility to reinvest in the business while continuing to deliver healthy profitability.

In our KDP International segment, net sales grew 7.6% driven by 5.7 percentage points from net price realization and a 1.9 point contribution from volume mix.

Segment operating income decreased 0.6%. Benefits from higher net sales and productivity savings were offset by elevated costs including green coffee inflation and the Mexico beverage tax as well as increased marketing investments.

Looking ahead, we expect a consistent profit growth contribution from the KDP International segment over time, including an improved trend in Q4.

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. We generated healthy free cash flow of $1 billion in the third quarter, driven by higher EBITDA and good cash conversion, including continued tight working capital management, particularly in inventory. We continue to target approximately $2.5 billion in free cash flow for the full year.

During the quarter, we also announced an agreement to monetize our minority equity stake in Giovanni and sell a noncore manufacturing facility, which will generate approximately $925 million in pretax proceeds or approximately $780 million after tax.

We received a portion of the proceeds in Q3, expect to balance by year-end and plan to use the full amount for debt paydown.

As a result of our quarterly performance and this agreement, we ended the quarter with pro forma management leverage of 4.1x, improving from our mid-year level. We expect to further reduce leverage by year-end, driven by cash generation, EBITDA growth and the contribution from our [indiscernible].

Strengthening our balance sheet remains a key focus, and we will continue to evaluate opportunities to accelerate deleveraging.

Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. In the near term, we are focused on investing in our business, maintaining our current dividend and paying down debt, consistent with our commitment to investment-grade credit ratings for KDP and our 2 future companies. Over time, we expect each business to deleverage quickly, which will provide greater capital deployment flexibility over the medium to long term.

With that, let me close with our full year guidance. For the total company, we continue to expect net sales in a $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion range, which now includes an approximately $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion contribution from JDE Peet's. On the bottom line, we are reaffirming our outlook for low double-digit constant currency eps growth, which now includes an anticipated 7 to 8 percentage points contribution from the JDE Peet's acquisition.

We also now expect legacy KDP EPS to grow 3% to 5%, reflecting our revised expectations for U.S. coffee.

Based on current rates, we now expect an approximately 0.5 percentage point FX tailwind to total company net sales and EPS growth for the full year.

Moving to below-the-line metrics. We are now assuming the following: interest expense of approximately $1.09 billion to $1.11 billion, an effective tax rate of approximately 22% to 23%, approximately [ 1.37 million ] diluted weighted average shares outstanding, approximately $190 million in pretax coffee JV costs, and convertible preferred P&L costs based on the securities share of earnings.

In summary, our third quarter results were healthy, and we remain on track to deliver our full year commitments. With that, I will turn the call back to Tim for closing remarks.

Timothy Cofer

Thanks, Anthony. I'd like to close with an update on our separation planning, which is an area where we've made significant progress this year. We closed the JDE Peet's acquisition and advanced our integration work. We established the organizational structures and leadership teams for each future company. We're capturing meaningful synergies in our first few quarters as a combined company, and we put in place an operating model that allows our teams to increasingly function on a stand-alone basis.

Looking ahead, we have a clear line of sight to the remaining work. This includes appointing a full Board for each company, establishing corporate names and identities and finalizing strategies and capital structures. Throughout this process, we will stay focused on executing our plans to deliver our financial commitments while also continuing to serve our consumers and customers with excellence.

Overall, we remain on track for our planned separation in early 2027, with exact timing subject to market conditions, among other factors. When complete, our separation will create 2 independent public companies, with advantaged competitive positions, focused strategies and the flexibility to pursue their own distinct value creation opportunities. We look forward to sharing more details about our vision and plans for Beverage Co. and Global Coffee Co. in the coming months. And with that, we're now happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

分析師問答

Dara Mohsenian

So another very strong top line result in U.S. refreshment and beverages in Q3. Can you just give us a bit more insight onto the hood into what's driving that growth separating out the fully owned business from distributor brands. And just given the momentum, help us understand for 2027, how sustainable some of those drivers are I'd love it if you could touch on cost, in particular, given the momentum there also.

And then if you'd be so generous, if I can just slip in one more clarification question. just the call down on heritage curing profit within the full year guidance, that's more related to what you expect in Q4 on the profitability side and the single-serve comments that you made in terms of the consumer shift to value, is some of that also the first half performance in Q2 where we saw a bit of weaker performance? I'm just trying to better understand what's changed on that heritage KDP coffee profitability side given so many moving cases?

Timothy Cofer

Thanks, Dara. I will take the first question on U.S. refresh and beverage growth, and I'll kick it over to Anthony to handle the U.S. coffee profitability question. Look, as you said, another strong quarter for U.S. refreshment beverage. We're pleased, I said in the prepared remarks. It's our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit top line growth in the segment. And that's underpinned by almost 7.5% increase in volume/mix. And when you look at that volume mix performance, it was broad-based across the portfolio. It starts certainly in CSDs, our largest category, healthy CSD trends, supported by what we're seeing as mid-single-digit category growth. And then within that, very solid brand performance.

For us, our standouts were once again Dr. Pepper, led by Zero Sugar, as I said in earlier, Canada Dry, another strong quarter, BloomPop, all featured well in CSDs. Energy, we experienced outsized growth in energy, and it's driven by the momentum we're seeing on Bloom and on GHOST and good traction from the brand refresh that's flowing through the market on C4.

You double-clicked on GHOST, we continue to see significant runway for GHOST balance of the year and into '27, very pleased with that acquisition.

Shifting to sports hydration, we had very strong quarter in sports hydration with Electrolit and improving still beverage performance led by our Waters portfolio. Specifically to your point, Dara, on own brands and partner brands. I think, in aggregate, what I'd tell you is we're pleased that this growth profile features a balanced contribution from both components of the portfolio. And as we look to the balance of the year, Q4, we expect these same drivers to support continued momentum in U.S. refreshment beverage.

Look, I don't expect to sustain a double-digit growth rate over time, but I do see clear runway for this segment to continue to throw off a meaningful growth contribution going forward. And we expect this segment to deliver another strong year of performance in 2016 and sustain the healthy momentum through the separation. Anthony?

Anthony DiSilvestro

Sure. Thanks, Tim. As we discussed in our prepared remarks, the single-serve category trends were a bit challenged during the quarter, and we responded by focusing on several factors within our control. This included reinvesting some of the moderating coffee costs into trade spend and promotions. We did that to optimize the pod price points and competitive price gaps. We also executed commercial programs to drive incremental demand at both ends of the value spectrum, including peak activity as well as new private label distribution wins. We're also stepping up our Keurig brewer precision marketing to support health of the broader ecosystem. We believe these are the right steps to support the business. They also came with a near-term profit trade-off. All in, Q3 segment operating income grew at a double-digit rate, which included the benefit of onetime tariff refunds, and excluding the benefit of tariffs, improved meaningfully versus the first half.

However, given the impact of the category trends and our investments, the pace of the underlying profit improvement was more gradual than our prior expectations. As we look ahead to Q4, we expect continued sequential improvement and year-over-year growth in underlying U.S. coffee profitability, although also at a more gradual pace than our prior expectations. All in, these factors mean we are now assuming a more modest U.S. coffee profit improvement in the second half. At the same time, this is being offset by higher expectations for JDE Peet's, where we benefited from favorable price/cost relationship, we're seeing improved market share trends, we're achieving cost and synergy savings. So we've increased our expectation for JDE Peet's accretion to 7 to 8 points versus 6 to 7. Meanwhile, because of the U.S. coffee performance, we're lowering our legacy KDP EPS guide from 4% to 6% to 3% to 5%.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

Christopher Carey

I wanted to ask a follow-up around U.S. coffee. Maybe just first, what did change within the quarter itself. And the reason I'm asking is because there's obviously comments about the category proved softer and yet volume/mix was decided to be better than expectations, albeit with lower pricing, but top line certainly seems better. I think the underlying margin, if you exclude tariff refund, was certainly a bit worse, right? But what, I guess, in the past month or 2 has evolved that has changed the picture here? Is it incremental private label driving lower margins? Is it you felt you needed to invest more into pricing, which drove lower margins? So maybe just what were the components that that shifted specifically between investment, volume and mix?

And then Anthony, just on that Q4 comment, did you say that you expected operating profit to be up in coffee in Q4, which I think would imply pretty substantial sequential margin improvement. So maybe you could just double-click on that. And I think the bigger picture piece here, and sorry for the long question, is just the ability to have visibility on the U.S. coffee model and indeed the broader coffee business as you go into separation and deliver those targets that you laid out at Investor Day going over the next year and over the medium term. So it was quite a bit there, but thanks so much for your thoughts.

Timothy Cofer

Yes, Chris, let me take a shot at your question in terms of what changed. So as we headed into the second half, we did expect improving trends for U.S. coffee relative to the first half. And indeed, that played out in the third quarter. Both net sales and operating income grew year-over-year, including the benefit of the onetime tariff refund in the third quarter that we mentioned. However, relative to our prior expectations, the pace of the underlying profit recovery was more gradual than we had first anticipated. So specifically to your question, what's changed? As the third quarter unfolded, we saw single-serve category trends that were softer than we expected. We think it's primarily related to the macro backdrop.

If you think about it, there have been multiple years of inflation-driven price increases on coffee, and we are seeing heightened value sensitivity in at-home coffee, particularly among the low and middle income consumers. So as a result, what you're seeing is lower cost formats of at-home coffee, think roast and ground, whole bean, instant, they are now outperforming single-serve. In addition, we did see private label penetration increasing both at total coffee category level and in the single-serve segment.

Now while we believe these are largely temporary and cyclical dynamics given the pricing and overall economy, we recognize they could persist for some time depending on the broader economic backdrop. And as a result, you're hearing from us now we're incorporating a more cautious category assumption into the fourth quarter.

At the same time, as Anthony responded to the prior question, we're definitely focused on executing against the areas in our control. And I think Anthony mentioned those, reinvesting some of the moderating coffee costs back in trade spend and promotions to optimize our price points, executing our commercial programs to drive incremental demand, stepping up our Keurig brewer precision marketing to drive accelerated brewer gains, which really are the health of the overall ecosystem, as you know.

So these are the right steps to support the business, but they come with a near-term profit trade-off, and that is now captured in our updated expectations.

And that double-click question that you had at the end, Chris, directed to Anthony, I'll just hit that right now. As we look to Q4, we do expect continued sequential improvement off the front half in Q3 and year-over-year growth in underlying U.S. Coffee profitability, although at a more gradual pace than our original expectations. And as Anthony said earlier, that is being offset by higher expectations for JDE Peet's. So we do expect a similar overall coffee contribution, and therefore, unchanged full year EPS outlook.

Operator

The next question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

Lauren Lieberman

Great. I was just curious if you could talk a little bit about separation timing. I know you mentioned, Tim, early '27, but just based on market conditions, piece, I would love some more color on kind of what that means. I appreciate the plan has been to be milestone based, but I just was curious about the added wrinkling commentary and market conditions.

Timothy Cofer

Sure. So look, we're making good progress against our separation milestones. We closed the JDE Peet's acquisition. We're advancing the integration work, capturing meaningful synergies. We've seen that ramp Q2, Q3, it will ramp further in Q4. We've largely finalized and communicated the post-separation org structures. We've begun establishing the IT and financial reporting capabilities required for each of the future companies so they can operate independently. We've expanded our Board of Directors in preparation for the need to have 2 independent Boards. We've established leadership teams, including today is his first day appointing Russ Torres as the future CEO of Global Coffee Co. So a lot of great progress that reinforces my comment that we're on track.

Over the balance of the year, these are the remaining key separation priorities. First and foremost, for me, all year long, #1 priority maintain momentum on the business and deliver on our 2026 plan. Next, we will further advance our integration work streams. As I mentioned earlier, our synergy capture will accelerate quarter-by-quarter. We're in the process now of finalizing the strategic frameworks for both companies. Obviously, things like corporate identities we will unveil closer to separation and importantly, the capital allocation policies for each of the future companies.

We're going to further build out the Boards for both BevCo and Coffee Co, and you should expect to see further announcements in the months ahead. and, of course, strengthening our balance sheet, including, as Anthony said, continuing to evaluate opportunities to accelerate deleveraging.

So overall, we remain on track for our targeted early 2027 separation. We recognize that the external environment is volatile. And as we've always said, it is subject to market conditions and other customary considerations, and that has not changed.

Operator

The next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

Peter Galbo

I just wanted to ask a clarification maybe and then a question. But Tim and Anthony, there was no update to the actual organic sales guidance that was included in the press release despite kind of the movement on JDE. And I think you actually would have taken the organic sales up if that were not the case. So I just wanted to clarify that, that's actually true and maybe what that number might be?

And maybe just on a broader term, Tim, you haven't really spoken much about the Chobani, not only just the equity sale, but but obviously the new agreement and kind of what we might expect in from a potential product standpoint, again, as you try to continue to drive that USRP business. So I would love just the clarification point and then maybe a little bit more on Chobani products.

Anthony DiSilvestro

Right. I can unpack the sales guidance a little bit. At the aggregate level, it's unchanged, $25.9 billion to $26.4 billion, but we did lower a little bit the expectation for JDE Peet's, so we're now at $8.3 billion to $8.4 billion. That's down a little bit from our prior outlook, and that's because we're seeing some of the pass-through pricing dynamics of that business come through. At the same time, as we said, we're seeing improved profitability from JDE Peet's.

We also adjusted the tailwind on FX to about 0.5 point of tailwind. And what that does is when you do the math, it implies legacy KDP sales outlook of about mid- to high single digits. And in fact, when you look at the year-to-date for KDP legacy, we're up 8% sales. So it is an improvement from our prior expectations.

Timothy Cofer

Yes. And Peter, I'll take the second part of the question on Chobani. Reminder, it was -- the deal had 3 elements. One was the monetization of our minority stake in Chobani. The second was the sale of our Allentown, Pennsylvania facility to Chobani. And then there was a third element, which I think is really the core of your question, which was an expanded multiyear distribution partnership with Chobani. We have a tremendous relationship and partnership with Hamby and the Chobani team. And you've seen the way that manifests so far in the strong performance of lock-alone, ready-to-drink coffee. As a result of this deal now with Chobani, we have the opportunity to support further growth for both companies. And one of those opportunities is to work together on a future ready-to-drink innovation, including high protein shakes that Chobani has referenced in their recent announcement, and we're excited about bringing that to our portfolio likely sometime next year.

Operator

The next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS.

Peter Grom

So can I just ask specifically what U.S. coffee margin would have been without tariffs? And I just -- I asked this in the context if you were to back out the majority of that $99 million from the profit number, it would imply some modest improvement in operating margins versus the first half. And I think you mentioned to Dara that had improved meaningfully. So it just would be helpful to understand where underlying profit landed, and especially as we think about the path forward?

And then just as it relates to the earnings guidance, I know you're kind of keeping the expectation for low double-digit EPS growth, but the tariff refund is a pretty decent tailwind. You also lowered your interest expense expectations. So is it really just weaker coffee performance that's more than offsetting that? Or are there other factors as well?

Anthony DiSilvestro

Let me start with the second part. There are some other factors we are making decisions to reinvest in marketing and innovation. We've also seen a little bit of pressure on logistics, particularly in USRP, around energy cost and some resin costs coming through. So we do have a few pluses and minuses inside of the guidance.

In terms of U.S. coffee performance, it would have been slightly down, excluding the tariff, but a meaningful improvement from the first half. We did talk about the $99 million in tariffs. The largest piece of that is in U.S. coffee. There is an additional benefit in U.S. refreshment beverages and it's important, as I said, we're reinvesting some of those tariff refunds.

Legacy KDP marketing in the quarter is up double digits, and we're also stepping up our innovation spending. Also, as Tim mentioned, there is some challenges in the coffee category, so it was helping to offset some of that. and some of the higher logistic costs that I mentioned. And the remainder helped to deliver some of the upside that you see in the quarter.

Operator

The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

Unknown Analyst

I want to ask a little bit more on the -- I know everybody is asking about coffee, but specifically, I think, Tim, you had mentioned that some of the slowdown in 4Q is macro, but also that maybe whole bean and a couple of other things are also involved. So this could be something that we're seeing more and more of, which is hold being fully automatic machines seem to be growing quite quickly. So if you're thinking maybe more structurally about the future and the big benefit of single-serve being the convenience is something changing competitively where we also need to be aware of how things are going with sort of the whole beans and automatics, which seems to be growing a little bit quicker than they were before?

Timothy Cofer

Yes, thanks. Look, as I said in the prepared remarks, the single-serve segment, which is obviously the vast majority of the business for legacy Keurig, those trends have been weaker than we expected. And we primarily attribute that to the current macro backdrop and the heightened value sensitivity you're seeing from consumers following multiple years of these inflation-driven price increases.

I think some consumers have rebalanced their spending as they're navigating these higher costs across their entire budget. And some of that includes shifting some single-serve occasions into lower cost coffee formats as the ones I referenced and you referenced in your question, other segments that are arguably more value based.

I think what's important for us and something I'll point out is the household penetration for Keurig remains healthy. And in fact, we expect it to continue to grow this year. But we are seeing pressure within existing households, households that use Keurig every week. They continue to consume K-Cups, but at a lower frequency. And so we believe that behavior is more consistent with a more temporary and cyclical response to the macro environment versus a fundamental change in consumer preferences. And I think that view is supported by the longer-term track record you see of single-serve gaining share within at-home coffee.

At the same time, we have to recognize these dynamics could persist for some time, especially if the overall economy remains pressured. And so we're taking the actions that we've outlined on this call to strengthen the value proposition and support both the category and our portfolio. And that's the activity I've referenced around trade spend and promotion optimization, and pod and brewer innovation, precision marketing and obviously, our commercial and RGM tools.

Over time, we believe these investments can support healthier and more consistent trends across both single serve and our total U.S. coffee business.

Operator

And the last question today will come from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery

Just wanted to see if you could give us a few thoughts on just some key considerations for 2027. Obviously, a lot of your attention and focus is on planning for the split. But anything maybe you could just help us understand in some of how you're planning from a business perspective and apart from the early bit of the year, it's 2 business plans. I realize there's a lot there, but just maybe initial kind of look on inflation expectations or your thoughts on the consumer some of the pricing investments and trade investments in coffee, should we expect some of that to be prolonged? Or is that really just a finish up this year? Just how do you keep pushing in energy past the 10% mark now of market share? Anything in terms of how you're looking ahead would be helpful.

Anthony DiSilvestro

Sure, I can start. I would tell you that our 2027 planning process is still ongoing. As you can imagine, there are many moving pieces, even more so than usual this year as our planning encompasses both KDP as a whole, and for each of the 2 future companies, Beverage Co. and Coffee Co. And therefore, I'd say it's a bit early to provide specific commentary on next year. And our plan is to discuss 2027 in more detail as we move into early next year.

Timothy Cofer

Yes. And Michael, I'll take the last part of your question, where you double-clicked on energy. Look, you've heard me say this in prior earnings calls, we see significant growth potential, continued growth potential for the energy category starting there, supported by what we think are structural fundamentals like continued expansion in distribution points as the consumer appeal broadens household penetration upside is still there, further occasion gains, more female consumers entering the category. I think the channel diversity can continue to flesh out. Obviously, convenience is the core of the category and where it started. But there's still upside opportunity across other channels, including large format.

So at a category level, we're bullish. Within the category, we feel very good about our position. Our portfolio has been an outsized market share gainer over the last couple of years and really now has meaningful scale to build upon. We're over $1.5 billion in net sales. And when you look at what's driving that, it starts with our portfolio. We've got authentic, distinctly positioned brands. You think about GHOST, you think about Bloom, C4, these are differentiated brands that really are complementary. The great tasting products, great innovation. I think our focus on Zero Sugar is the right place to play in the category. It's the largest, most attractive part of the category and really been an outsized contributor to category growth, and I expect that to continue. And then that's all underpinned by the capabilities that we have here at KDP and at BevCo around DSD, the capabilities to support that frontline execution and drive visibility and availability and display.

So we're proud of the progress we've made. And I remind you, just a couple of years ago, we were less than 1% market share, and we've now crossed the 10% mark, and that's more than 2.5 points of share growth year-over-year, if you look at the third quarter numbers. But just as importantly, I see continued meaningful runway going forward as we go into '27 and beyond and feel good about our ability to sustain healthy momentum in energy and across U.S. refreshment beverage.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Keurig Dr Pepper's Vice President of Investor Relations, Chethan Mallela.

Chethan Mallela

Great. Thank you, everyone, for the time and attention this morning, and the IR team is available if you have any follow-ups. Have a great day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.