黑石礦業 (BSM) 2026 年第三季法說會：DCF 達 9,300 萬美元，配息調升

重點速覽

• Black Stone Minerals 公布 2026 年第三季淨利約為 5,200 萬美元，其中包括約 3,000 萬美元的 非現金未實現損失。
• 調整後 EBITDA 達 1.04 億美元，而 可分配現金流為 9,300 萬美元，主要受惠於原油與天然氣產量提升。
• 每單位季度配息連續第二個季度調升至 0.35 美元，相當於 年化 1.40 美元，配息覆蓋率為 1.25 倍。
• 礦產與權利金產量季增 6%，主要由 Haynesville/Bossier 地區天然氣產量成長及二疊紀盆地 (Permian) 原油產量增加所帶動。
• 涵蓋擴大後 Shelby Trough 的開發協議目前占地約 140 萬總英畝。Catalyst 已根據原協議開鑽前兩口開發井，預計將於 2027 年上半年投產。
• 管理層預期 Shelby Trough 的天然氣產量將在 2027 年前穩定成長，同時強調財務靈活性與永續的配息成長。

關鍵財務數據

原油與凝析油在本季度貢獻了近 三分之二的油氣營收。管理層表示商品價格仍具支撐力，特別是原油。

業務與營運表現

產量較上季成長反映出 Haynesville/Bossier 的天然氣產量增加以及二疊紀盆地 (Permian) 的原油產量提升。管理層亦指出，隨著開採業者陸續處理已鑽井但未完井 (DUC) 的項目，二疊紀盆地與 Bakken 都有新井投產。

Shelby Trough 仍是 Black Stone Minerals 成長策略的核心。與 Catalyst、其他營運商開發案及 Revenant 簽署的協議總計涵蓋約 140 萬總英畝。該公司在熱門 Shelby Trough 區域內亦擁有約 5 萬總英畝的傳統租約。

Adamas 持續推進新井投產，而 Revenant 首批產量預計於 2026 年底前實現。Catalyst 已依原協議開鑽首兩口開發井，預計於 2027 年上半年投產。

在更廣泛的 Shelby Trough 租地中，Exco、Apex、Rockcliff 與 BPX 在 Black Stone Minerals 的礦區內共有 10 口井正在鑽探或等待完井。管理層表示，新增的許可申請顯示未來幾個月鑽探活動將會增加。

在規劃的收購計畫下，公司預計擴大後的 Shelby Trough 淨礦產面積中，約有 60% 來自既有持股，約 40% 來自併購。管理層表示，收購計畫進度已過半，且仍在使用補強型 (bolt-on) 併購機會進行評估。

管理層展望

管理層預計隨著現有開發協議下的油氣井陸續投產，Shelby Trough 的天然氣產量將在 2027 年前穩定成長。公司相信這些計畫能隨著時間拉長，支撐更高水準的產量、現金流與配息。

在原油方面，管理層預期二疊紀盆地與 Bakken 的高權益開發活動與持續完井作業將為產量提供支撐。然而，開採業者的活動可能取決於大宗商品價格與 2027 年的資本預算。

公司計畫在配息成長與開發及併購投資之間取得平衡。管理層表示，現有的信用額度足以支援當前的收購計畫，並重申保持資產負債表靈活性仍是首要考量。

風險與關注領域

• 大宗商品價格可能會影響開採業者的活動、產量成長與資本支出，特別是在以原油為主的區域。
• 新產量的進度與時程取決於開採業者完成並連通計畫中的油氣井。
• 管理層坦言，隨著 Shelby Trough 產量擴大，長期來看將需要額外的外運能力 (takeaway capacity)，但也表示相關基礎設施計畫已在進行中。
• 資本配置必須在收購、潛在的特別股贖回、配息與資產負債表靈活性之間取得平衡。

分析師問答集錦

分析師關注的焦點包括擴大的 Catalyst 協議、收購資金來源、產量成長以及配息政策。管理層拒絕揭露 Catalyst 協議擴大背後的具體地層勘探發現，但表示擴大的合約與具競爭力的行銷過程，反映出整體產業對 Shelby Trough 及 Haynesville/Bossier 機會的廣泛興趣。

在產量方面，隨著 Adamas 持續有新井投產，以及 Revenant 與 Catalyst 開始生產，管理層預期天然氣將穩定放量。原油產量應會受惠於 Blue Aero 的作業以及二疊紀盆地與 Bakken 的額外完井，惟仍取決於商品價格與開採業者預算。

關於基礎設施，管理層表示 Shelby Trough 的長期成長將需要更多外運能力。然而，管理層指出包含與 Williams 及 Momentum 相關計畫在內的持續投資，並表示預期開發推進過程中不會出現大規模的外運瓶頸。

管理層維持現有的配息策略。調升至每單位 0.35 美元反映對公司預測的信心，但未來的決策仍將考量財務靈活性與市場狀況。

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管理層陳述

Operator

Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Black Stone Minerals Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

I will now hand the conference over to Natalie Liddell, Vice President, Corporate Planning. Natalie, please go ahead.

Natalie Liddell

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us by phone or online for Black Stone Minerals Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website along with the earnings release issued last night.

Before we start, I'd like to advise you that we will be making forward-looking statements during this call about our plans, expectations and assumptions regarding our future performance. These statements involve risks that may cause our actual results to differ materially from the results expressed or implied in our forward-looking statements. For a discussion of these risks, you should refer to the cautionary information about forward-looking statements in our press release from yesterday and the Risk Factors section of our 2025 10-K. We may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful in evaluating our performance.

Reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure and other information about these non-GAAP metrics are described in our earnings press release yesterday from yesterday, which can be found on our website at www.blackstoneminerals.com. Joining me on the call from the company are Taylor DeWalch, Co-CEO and President; Fowler Carter, Co-CEO and President; Steve Putman, Senior Vice President and General Counsel; Chris Bonner, Senior Vice President; Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

I'll now turn the call over to Taylor.

Taylor DeWalch

Thanks, Natalie. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. We had a strong third quarter with growth in both oil and natural gas production. Higher volumes together with continued support from elevated oil prices contributed to increased cash flow compared to the second quarter. With these results and continued progress toward natural gas production growth we raised our distribution for the second consecutive quarter while maintaining prudent coverage.

As we look ahead, we continue to monitor commodity market conditions and what they may mean for operator activity and our production outlook. We also took an important step in advancing our [ Shelby Trough ] strategy with the amendment and expansion of our Catalyst agreement. It brings a broader portion of our position into a contracted development program and moves us closer to realizing the production potential of our mineral inventory.

These successful results for the third quarter highlight the strength of Black Stone's unique and differentiated strategy. We are both actively managing the portfolio across the [ Lower 48 ] through current leasing, while also promoting significant growth through our development agreements on high interest acreage. The combination of these strategies along with a significant unleased position across the country that we continue to explore, provides a solid foundation with substantial growth opportunities.

As we look to 2027, our focus is on continued execution under our existing agreements as these development programs progress and grow. Together with ongoing activity across our broader portfolio, we expect these programs to drive higher production and support distribution growth over time. As we evaluate that progress, we'll balance distributions and investment in growth in a way that preserves our financial flexibility.

With that, I'll turn it over to Fowler to discuss how we are advancing our growth strategy and what the progress across these programs means for Black Stone.

Fowler Carter

Thanks, Taylor. A key focus of our growth strategy is advancing development of our substantial legacy mineral position, the expanded Shelby Trough. Targeted acquisitions and development agreements help us turn that inventory into natural gas production and cash flow. Together, these efforts go beyond any single transaction to build a portfolio of development programs that we expect to contribute to production growth over time.

At the conclusion of our planned acquisition program, we expect approximately 60% of our expanded Shelby Trough net mineral acreage to come from our legacy holdings and approximately 40% from the acquisition program. This reflects how targeted additions build on our existing acreage position and enhance the overall development opportunity. Our expanded catalyst agreement reflects our strategy of working with operators to move more of our acreage towards delineation, development and ultimately production, strong industry interest, during the marketing process, reinforced our confidence in the long-term potential of the position. This amendment combined with our other high interest development agreements brings the total area covered by our catalysts, [Indiscernible] and revenant agreements to approximately 1.4 million gross acres.

Additionally, we have approximately 50,000 gross acres under traditional leases in active areas throughout the Shelby Trough. We are seeing development activity continue to build across the acreage. [ Adamas ] is bringing additional wells online, [ Revenant ] first production is expected by year-end, and Catalyst has spud its first 2 development wells under the original agreement with production expected in the first half of '27. Across our broader Shelby Trough position, Exco, Apex, Rockcliff and BPX currently have 10 combined wells drilling or awaiting completion on our acreage, and additional drilling permit filings suggest increased drilling activity in the coming months.

We continue to actively market acreage and work with operators throughout our mineral portfolio to put more of our position into play. Strong leasing activity and higher lease bonus revenues reflect those efforts, generating revenue today while creating opportunities for future drilling and production. At the core of our growth outlook are our Shelby Trough development programs. With these agreements now in place and development advancing, we expect significant growth in natural gas production and cash flow. We believe this expected growth, together with opportunities elsewhere in our mineral portfolio provides a strong foundation for growing returns to unitholders in the years ahead.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris to cover the financial results.

Chris Bonner

Thanks, Fowler, and good morning. Mineral Royalty production during the third quarter averaged 34.5 [Indiscernible] per day, while total production averaged 35.6 [Indiscernible] per day. [Indiscernible] royalty production increased 6% from the second quarter driven by both higher natural gas volumes from the Haynesville Bossier and higher oil volumes from the Permian. Commodity prices remained supportive during the quarter, particularly for oil.

Our average realized price, excluding the impact of derivative settlements, was roughly in line with last quarter. Higher production contributed to stronger oil and gas revenues and cash flow with oil and condensate accounting for nearly 2/3 of our oil and gas revenues. Net income was approximately $52 million for the quarter, which included a noncash unrealized rate of loss of about $30 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $104 million and distributable cash flow was $93 million. As previously announced, we declared a distribution of $0.35 per unit for the quarter or $1.40 on an annualized basis.

Stronger cash flow supported our second consecutive quarterly distribution increase, while allowing us to maintain 1.25x coverage for the quarter. Maintaining that balance allows us to pursue accretive opportunities while supporting our objective of sustainable distribution growth. As Taylor and Fowler discussed, programs under our development agreements, including the expansion of our Catalyst program, is positioning more of our acreage to help meet anticipated natural gas demand growth from LNG exports, power generation and industrial uses. Our proximity to Gulf Coast demand centers reinforces that opportunity. Our focus remains on advancing development with the goal of growing production, cash flow and distributions for unitholders.

With that, we'll open it up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of John Annis with Texas Capital Bank.

分析師問答

John Annis

My first one is on the expanded caters agreement. What did the pilot work or subsurface data show that gave both parties the confidence to expand the contract area by 730,000 gross acres.

Fowler Carter

John, Fowler here. Catalysts collected a lot of data on that well. And as we've said, we're excited to expand the contract here with them, and we're not going to jump in front of them on comments to that. But I think the expansion of the contract speaks to answer the question.

John Annis

That make sense. For my follow-up, production showed some nice growth sequentially. Can you walk us through kind of the main drivers of that growth and how we should think about volumes over the next couple of quarters as the remaining [Indiscernible] wells come online?

Taylor DeWalch

Yes, I can start with that. So looking at the Shelby Trough, Adamas continues to turn wells on, and we expect that to continue and then are looking forward, as we mentioned, to the first revenue wells coming on and [Indiscernible] so generally on the gas side, we expect that to just be a steady ramp as we go into next year.

On the oil side, certainly encouraged by the higher interest development with Blue Aero and think that, that will continue to show growth in oil volumes. And then we've also just seen broadly across the Permian and Bakken more wells coming online as operators work through DUCs. I think there it is a little bit more price sensitive, and we'll see what operators decide to do with our CapEx budgets going into next year, but we're certainly expecting that to continue to be a strong driver of our volumes and revenue.

John Annis

Got it. If I could sneak one last one in, maybe more on the macro side. with several operators advancing programs across the Shelby Trough, are you guys seeing any constraint around takeaway capacity services or anything else that could limit the pace of development as activity scales?

Taylor DeWalch

Yes. Thanks, John. This is Taylor. I'll touch on that. I think when we look at takeaway capacity on the Shelby Trough, that's been a conversation that's been had between us, the operators and potential midstream gatherers and long-haul pipes for quite some time now, trying to get ready ahead of the volumes coming online from the Shelby Trough. I think we're all excited about the potential of the size and volumes that we're all forecasting to come out of that area. But over the long haul, we're going to need some additional capacity. And I'd say those projects are well underway, especially I think if we specifically call out the deal between Williams and momentum, I certainly think there's capital being injected into that area.

And we're excited to have some more capacity that goes south towards the LNG corridor and other demand centers kind of towards some of the other LNG facilities such as Venture Global and other projects underway. So I think that those projects are well underway, and we shouldn't see any takeaway or large-scale takeaway constraints as we move forward the supply curve.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Rezvan with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Timothy Rezvan

We appreciated the detailed update about your operating agreements in the release. So I just wanted to ask kind of what that caters expansion, where do you stand with resource capture at this point? You've spent about $335 million. You have a number of agreements lined up. Are you done? Is there more to do? Just kind of trying to understand your appetite at this point?

Taylor DeWalch

Tim, I think the best way to answer that is stay tuned. That's [Indiscernible].

Taylor DeWalch

Tim, this is Taylor. I'll just add on to that a little bit, too. I mean, I think we continue to move forward with our acquisition program. We've talked about it in the past that I think we said a couple of quarters ago, we're about halfway through it. So we're more than halfway through at this point. But we're still seeing opportunities to continue to bolt on to get to the type of scale that we really desire in order to place the acreage into these development agreements to also help incentivize the operators.

So we're over halfway through and continue to move forward with acquisitions in that area. One other comment I might just make and this goes back to one of the previous questions as well on caters is we had a pretty strong competitive marketing process on these expanded areas. So I don't think that it's tied to any specific well, but more thinking about the broader area and just general excitement on the expanding Shelby Trough in the Haynesville/Bossier play. And that covering, like Fowler said in his prepared remarks, well over 1 million gross acres that we've not got -- now have in these contracted agreements.

Timothy Rezvan

Okay. I think I understand your body language pretty clearly on that. If we think about the capital structure at this point, it looks like you're about a little over half drawn on your credit facility. I think the next redetermination in the spring. How should we think about sources of capital for any incremental acquisitions? I know you have the preferred that's sort of out there. So how do you think about capital structure to support this growth that is clearly underway.

Taylor DeWalch

Yes. I'll maybe just touch on it quickly, Tim, and then Chris can jump in [Indiscernible] one of the keys for us is to stay flexible from a balance sheet perspective. I think we've continued to do that. I think when we look at the current cycle that we're in, we think about how do we utilize this elevated oil price cycle to make the business better. And we think we can do that through both 2 consecutive quarters of distributions, but also focusing on maintaining a clean balance sheet and then growing the business for the long haul. That's really what we've been focused on. And I think that our agreements and continuing to bring in new agreements continues to kind of fortify that strategy.

And as we think about the sort of financial flexibility there are other uses of capital that are out there from an acquisition or a preferred standpoint. The redemption window comes up about a year from now. So I think we'll continue to weigh those different uses of capital as we progress over the next 12 months.

Chris Bonner

Yes, I think the only thing I'll add to that is we do feel that our existing credit facility is sufficient to meet our needs when it comes to the acquisition program.

Timothy Rezvan

And if I could just sneak one more in. You surprised us with the distribution increase this quarter, and it looks like ample coverage for that payment. In the past, the Board has tried to maintain a fixed distribution despite volatile gas markets. But is your expectation to try to keep that $0.35 distribution? Or is the Board maybe going to be more tactical as prices at and flow?

Taylor DeWalch

Thanks, Tim. No, I think our strategy around the distribution stays the same. We raised it because we felt comfortable about where our forecast stands, which is what we've signaled to key guys in the past. So we're happy to be able to recommend and get the approval for the distribution growth. And like I said, we continue to look out to the forecast for just maintaining kind of flexibility related to all of our financials.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Taylor DeWalch, Co-Chief Executive Officer and President, for closing remarks.

Taylor DeWalch

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Really excited to both announce continued growth in the Shelby Trough as well as strong quarterly results and look forward to speaking to you all again next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.