阿德莫爾航運 (ASC) 2026 年第三季法說會：第四季 MR TCE 達每日 57,600 美元

重點摘要

• Ardmore Shipping 公布 2026 年第三季調整後盈餘為 6,300 萬美元（即每股 0.40 美元），調整後 EBITDA 為 2,880 萬美元。
• 該公司宣佈發放每股 0.27 美元的季度股利，相當於調整後盈餘的三分之二，這也是其連續第 16 個季度發放現金股利。
• MR 型油輪第三季每日 TCE 費率為 27,000 美元。第四季已預訂 45% 的天數，平均每日費率為 57,600 美元，近期成交租約每日更突破 80,000 美元。
• 化學品船第三季每日收益為 23,300 美元，第四季迄今已預訂 60% 的天數，每日收益為 30,100 美元。過去一個月，輕便型 (Handysize) 化學品船的平均成交租約每日接近 50,000 美元。
• 營運現金保本點維持在每日 10,800 美元，相較於當前租金費率展現顯著的營運槓桿效果。本季營運出租率達到 99%。
• 管理層表示，地緣政治引發的貿易錯置、低成品油庫存以及更長的航程持續支撐油輪需求，而老舊的 MR 型與輕便型船隊則限制了有效供給。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

Ardmore 在進入第四季時，約有 85% 的船隊曝險於現貨市場，這讓公司得以捕捉油輪費率的大幅上漲。管理層形容當前的市場狀況類似於旺季尚未完全開始前的冬季市場榮景。

該公司將油輪需求強勁歸因於貿易路線受阻、煉油利潤高企以及成品油庫存耗盡。管理層表示，全球成品油庫存下降相當於 600 多艘 MR 型油輪的載貨量。此外，歐洲航空燃油庫存約為年初水準的一半，而美國汽油和柴油庫存則低於五年平均區間。

長途貿易模式也提升了船舶利用率。美國墨西哥灣沿岸對歐洲和亞洲的出口量年增，而向東運輸的 MR 型石腦油運量則成長了五倍。管理層補充指出，中國、韓國和印度更高企的出口活動可能會進一步支撐貨運量。

船隊供給持續受到船齡偏高的限制。MR 型油輪的新船訂單佔現有船隊的 18%，但現有 MR 型油輪中有半數將在五年內超過 20 年船齡。在輕便型油輪方面，新船訂單僅佔 6%，且 75% 的船隊將在五年內超過 20 年船齡。管理層表示，更嚴格的安全、環保與法規遵循要求降低了老舊船舶的有效利用率。

Ardmore 以 3,430 萬美元出售了一艘 2013 年建造的船舶，交船程序已於 10 月中旬完成。公司還行使了額外兩艘輕便型新造油輪的選擇權，使其預定於 2028 年開始交船的新船總訂單量達到六艘。這些船舶旨在運輸成品油、高級化學品、食用油與替代燃料。

管理層指引

管理層預估 2026 年剩餘時間的船隊資本支出為 200 萬美元，並預測 2027 年資本支出為 1,300 萬美元。

除了目前的預訂數據外，該公司未提供全季度的 TCE 費率預測。管理層強調費率預測仍具不確定性，儘管近期 MR 型油輪高於每日 80,000 美元的預訂顯示出持續超越第四季已預訂平均每日 57,600 美元的強勁動能。

Ardmore 計劃繼續發放調整後盈餘的三分之二作為股利，同時兼顧船隊更新、把握時機出售船舶以及潛在的併購機會。管理層表示，這些資本配置手段可能在市場週期的不同時間點實施，而非同時進行。

風險與關注焦點

• 第四季 TCE 數據僅涵蓋 MR 型油輪 45% 的可用天數和化學品船 60% 的可用天數，使得最終營運成果仍易受現貨費率變化的影響。
• 管理層坦承，當前費率環境能維持多久以及波動幅度均難以預測。
• 地緣政治動盪雖然拉長了貿易路線，但同時也帶來了充滿挑戰的營運環境並使貨物流向發生改變。
• 老舊船舶在安全、環保與合規標準方面面臨頂級租船人日益嚴格的審查，進而降低了其有效利用率。
• 六艘新造船計劃增加了未來的資本承諾支出，這已反映在 32% 的有效槓桿率中。

分析師問答重點

分析師聚焦於出色的現金產生能力與資產價值是否會改變 Ardmore 的資本配置優先順序。管理層表示公司將保持靈活策略，綜合運用股利發放、潛在的股票回購、選擇性的船隊投資以及伺機出售老舊船舶。

在船隊策略方面，管理層表示 Ardmore 對以現有現代化船隊及高現貨市場曝險進入冬季市場感到滿意。公司已準備好跨越更多週期保留老舊船舶，但若買方提出足夠具吸引力的價格，也會考慮出售。

管理層亦表示，向外租入船舶擴充船隊仍是 Ardmore 戰略工具箱的一部分，儘管公司在退還一艘船舶後目前並無租入船舶。未來任何租入交易都需要符合 Ardmore 對船舶品質、技術管理和客戶契合度的標準。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Note that today's call is being recorded and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmorshipping.com. We will conduct a question-and-answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next week by dialing 1 888660-6345 164 517-4150 and entering passcode 402 19. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer at Ardmore Shipping.

Gernot Ruppelt

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Garnet. Turning to Slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in our third quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website. And I'll now turn the call back to Gernot.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on Slide 3. First, I'll provide a brief overview of our third quarter highlights. Thereafter, I will hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Then I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. Turning to Slide 4, which covers our earnings highlights. We are pleased to report another strong result with third quarter adjusted earnings of $63 million or $0.40 per share. Geopolitical dislocation continues to reshape trade patterns, absorbing tonnage and boosting TCE rates and even stronger momentum has been building into the fourth quarter.

We continue to execute on our capital allocation policy -- part more is declaring a dividend of $0.27 per share, consistent with our policy of paying out 2/3 of adjusted earnings. During the third quarter, we agreed to sell 1 of our 2013 Baltimore for $34.3 million, and the ship was subsequently delivered in mid-October. And as previously announced, we exercised options for 2 Handysize tanker newbuildings bringing our total order to 6 vessels with delivery dates starting from 2028.

Moving on to our TCE performance on Slide 5. Our third quarter bookings reflect the firm market during what is a seasonally slower period. And moving into the fourth quarter, rates have been accelerating meaningfully. Our MR tankers earned $27,000 per day for the third quarter and $57,600 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 45% booked. As you can see in the chart here, these levels are roughly double the TCEs achieved during the same period last year. And if you were to zoom in further, our recent bookings are north of $80,000 per day. Our chemical tankers earned $23,300 per day for the third quarter and $30,100 per day so far in the fourth quarter with 60% booked. With some additional context, our Handysize chemical tankers, the focus of our new building program have concluded average charter rates of nearly $50,000 per day over the last month. Our operating leverage is exceptionally strong with TCE earnings at a multiple of our operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day.

Turning to Slide 6. Here, we outlined the company's approach to capital allocation whereby we continue to return capital to shareholders while investing in fleet renewal and growth. At the start of the year, we increased our dividend payout ratio to 2/3 of adjusted earnings. And today, we are declaring our 16th consecutive quarterly cash dividend. As mentioned, we have contracted 6 Handysize tanker newbuildings with delivery starting in 2028. These highly flexible assets can carry the full range of mainstream oil and refined products as well as the majority of advanced chemical cargoes, edible oils and alternative fuels.

This year, we sold 2 older vessels at very attractive prices. While last year, we had acquired 3 modern secondhand MRs at prices around 30% below current market levels. And we retained considerable financial flexibility across a wide range of market conditions with an operating cash breakeven of just $10,800 per day and ample debt capacity. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart for the market outlook.

Bart Kelleher

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to Slide 8 and the market outlook. Starting on the top right, Global seaborne crude shipments are essentially back to pre-conflict levels. The chart on the bottom left shows crack spreads averaging over $60 per barrel on WTI and over 50 on Brent, up from the $20 range at the start of the year. This is supporting robust refining activity as depicted in the bottom right. The IEA forecast global throughput to rise by more than 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter with further growth through 2027, supporting higher product exports and product tanker utilization. .

Moving to Slide 9 and the inventory restocking opportunity ahead. Disruption to crude and product flows has created supply gaps in several regions. Inventories have been drawn, leaving product stocks at multiyear lows. The chart on the top right shows European jet fuel now half of what it was at the start of the year, sitting well below its 5-year range. Looking to the 2 charts on the bottom, U.S. gasoline and diesel are both below their 5-year lows as well. Rebuilding these stocks will add an incremental layer of product tanker demand. Just to frame this, the decline in global product stocks equates to over 600 MR equivalent cargoes.

Additionally, several countries are planning to increase their strategic reserves, potentially further lengthening the restocking cycle and corresponding product tanker demand. Turning to Slide 10 and how geopolitical shifts in refinery dislocation are reshaping global trade. Energy security remains a fundamental priority with government's diversifying import sources and securing seaborne supply chains. At the same time, refining and consumption are increasingly dislocated. The continued trend of closures in the West is being replaced by new capacity in the East, extending voyage distances. On top of these structural drivers, trade disruption is absorbing fleet capacity. The map shows a few representative examples.

Volumes from the U.S. Gulf to Europe and Asia have risen significantly year-on-year, and MR Naptha East is up fivefold. Moving to Slide 11. I where we highlight the favorable supply dynamics. Starting on the left with the MR segment. The order book represents 18% of the fleet. And within 5 years, half of all existing MRs will be over 20 years old. Moving to the Handysize segment on the right, which, as a reminder, is the focus of our newbuilding program, the order book is just 6% of the current fleet and within 5 years, 75% of Handy's will be over 20 years old that 17 million tons approaching the scrapping window to warping the 1 million tons on order. Slide 12 further shows how the aging fleet impacts effective supply.

Given rigorous safety, environmental and compliance standards, older tankers are increasingly scrutinized by top-tier charters. As the chart highlights, utilization meaningfully declines as the vessel ages. And even when older vessels are not scrapped, effective supply is reduced accordingly. Moving now to our financial and operating performance. Turning to Slide 14, where we detail our financial position. We continue to generate robust cash flow by optimizing TCE performance and tightly managing costs, supporting our low operating cash breakeven level of $10,800 per day. were $11,700 per day, including dry dock and CapEx. Looking ahead, including the forward commitments associated with our newbuilding program, effective leverage stands at 32%.

Turning to Slide 15. Again, highlighting our third quarter results with adjusted EBITDA of $28.8 million and adjusted EPS of $0.40. The EBITDA reconciliation in our fourth quarter guidance can be found in the appendix. Turning to Slide 16 for operational highlights. -- far well-being continues to be a top priority, and we acknowledge the key role our seafarers play in an increasingly challenging operating environment. During the quarter, we achieved an impressive 99% on-hire utilization, supported by our very active Ship to Shore collaboration with innovation continuing to drive strong efficiencies. For the remainder of the year, fleet CapEx is estimated at $2 million, and we forecast $13 million for 2027. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

Gernot Ruppelt

Thank you, Bart. Moving to Slide 18 in summary. Ardmore is well positioned and capitalizing on a strong market. We are capturing TCE rates at large multiples of our cash breakeven with MR earnings so far in the fourth quarter of almost $60,000 per day and recent bookings point even higher as discussed earlier on the call. Near-term disruption and inventory restocking needs create strong immediate drivers in addition to compelling structural long-term demand growth and an aging fleet. We are distributing 2/3 of adjusted earnings to shareholders while renewing the fleet through targeted investment in line with the company's dynamic approach to capital allocation. As always, our decisions are guided by our long-term strategy strong governance and a commitment to creating value through market cycles. We now welcome your questions. .

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First, we will hear from John Chappell at Evercore ISI. Please go ahead, Jon.

分析師問答

Jonathan Chappell

Thank you. Okay. Slide 6 is your policies and priorities that you've had in place for a few years, and they've obviously served you quite well. but we're in incredible times right now. And the cash flow generation, the asset value movements we've never seen before in this industry. Does that change the way that you think about these priorities into '27 and beyond? And if not, the priorities themselves but maybe the timing of how you look to introduce them or potentially accelerate them?

Gernot Ruppelt

That's a terrific question, John. And I'd like to think we have been and we'll continue to approach that topic in a very nonbinary way, where as a business, we continue to make sure that we return capital to shareholders. Well, of course, there's any business, you also have to invest in your future. But those different levers don't have to be always pulled simultaneously or within any given quarter, but rather need to be looked at kind of through the game, through the cycle. And for us, we'll continue to adjust those levers on right now our accelerated dividend payout ratio at a different time, we embraced share buybacks on the fleet renewal side, very well-timed acquisitions in the second hand market last year and equally some well-timed new building constructions that we've committed to at pre-year-end prices and then layered as various tranches at options throughout the year in all those situations kind of really moved early before the market and then also continuing to assess opportunities to take some value off the table by pruning some of our older ships if we're seeing sort of the right price and we'll continue to approach it exactly in that fashion.

Jonathan Chappell

Okay. And then as a follow-up, again, extraordinary, typically, when you have this kind of quarter-to-date level rate, I would tend to fade them because typically, they don't last. They're not strong for this long. However, as you insinuated in 1 of your product tanker peers spoke to last week. They're actually continuing to march higher. So is there any way to kind of give us a sense of where you sit today relative to that average? And then given the inventory slides, especially that Bart laid out, maybe how to think about magnitude and direction from the rest of this quarter, understanding it's very difficult to predict. So maybe just kind of where we are today versus the average is a good way to start.

Gernot Ruppelt

Yes, acknowledging some of those challenges of a true prediction, but at the same time, grounding us and some of the facts that we are seeing -- that we're observing today. Just looking at the market around you, it feels like a winter market already before it is even winter. If you look at refining margins, we had, of course, some data update during the slide show. But in very simple terms, refining margins today are double of what they were before the situation in Iran kicked off earlier this year. And those levels are yet again double of what they would have been at the start of the decade. So none of this is set to change anytime soon.

Atlantic product markets remain extremely tight, as you can see with some of the significant product deficiencies in some markets. And then at the same time, some barrels, of course, coming out of the Middle East. And you see an overall structural Chinese refining surplus, probably kicking in to an even higher gear. If you consider the recent publication of higher export quotas from Korea -- sorry, from China, at the same time, you also saw that Korea made some announcements with regard to expanding the export -- export capacities. And India typically gets quite busy this time of the year as well. So we continue to see these significant swings. Overall, the barrels are back, but the efficiency is not. And you, of course, now see product tankers continuing to connect these inefficient commodity markets in a very efficient way.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next will be Omar Nokta at Clarkson.

Omar Nokta

Pretty a good update. Yes. So clearly, 3, even though it was softer quarter-over-quarter, it was still historically very good and then 4Q is looking off the charts as you were highlighting. I wonder if you just ask about maybe somewhat related to John's first question about capital allocation. You mentioned opportunistically selling the 2013 built MR. How do you think about replacing those earnings or taking the cash and using that for a separate purpose. What are you thinking about that? When we -- in the past few quarters, you've invested in the handies via the new buildings. How are you thinking about the MR specifically? Would you look to recycle the cash into more new buildings on the MR side? Or would you look to acquire potentially modern vessels? Or is it just sit back and leave as ?

Gernot Ruppelt

Right now, we're very happy with the position that we're in, Omar. We have a very modern fleet, all equals back 85% -- roughly 85% spot as we're heading into the winter market here. As far as the future is concerned, I believe the market will guide the way. There are times to be just patient and let you position play out. And then there are other times to be decisive as we have demonstrated at the start of last year at again at the start of this year. And we continue to have a very live interactive discussion internally and with our Board about where the pockets of value closely tracking price dislocation again, bringing it back to the overall levers of our capital allocation policy, balancing returning capital to our shareholders reinvesting in the business in the long run, but also in line with what is our long-term strategy and what has been our long-term strategy that underpins those decisions.

So kind of combining a very deliberate long-term strategic focus while being nimble and opportunistic for instance, if there's an opportunity to prune some of these older ships. I will say the ARPA feet, as you see also the shift that we sold, these are fine ships, all eco built by or owned by Armor for longer than a decade with various efficiency upgrades already undertaken, and we are fully prepared and would be very happy to take them through various cycles to come and hold them for another 7 years. And we're preparing any additional upgrades and maintenance programs and driving schedules with that baseline assumption. But if somebody really wants to come and present a strong number, of course, on an older ship. We obviously have to listen. But that's probably not today, we're very happy approaching the winter as it is now and letting our position play out here.

Omar Nokta

Okay. That's fair. So basically go into the winter, see how that goes and perhaps revisit as we get into next year if I'm moving you correctly?

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I think there's a lot of really important interesting immediate drivers that are just really starting to play out on the market. I think there's the broader picture with with the relationship with -- between the bigger ships and MRs and MRS just really stepping into that normalized relationship, kind of taking their rightful place there. And I think looking ahead as where the world is going, not to belabor the state of the world, but at times like these, this concept of having access to energy supply chain resilience or that becomes for state players as a matter of natural security and at an enterprise level for our customers, protecting these incredible refining profits through access to tonnage, we'll continue to mean 1 thing and 1 thing only, maritime assets, essential assets and the market is probably just in the process of finding how to price those assets correctly, and we're quite happy to see that play out. .

Omar Nokta

Yes, certainly. And maybe if I could, just another question. I wanted to ask about the chartering and tonnage something that you have done generally in the past as we think about opportunities there, you've got a very strong balance sheet, plenty of flexibility with all the liquidity you have and the cash. How do you think about maybe looking to more on the TCN side by going long and bringing vessels in and go short in terms of charting them out in the spot market. Is that something that's interesting, just given kind of where the market is today in terms of the separation between what a TC and what cost versus what a spot rate would get you today? And then obviously, in the context of having a very robust balance sheet.

Gernot Ruppelt

Absolutely. And I feel like these are levers we have used in the past and something we would continue to explore at the moment, well, we have actually redelivered a ship and currently don't have any ships on time charter in, but that could always be something that's very much in the mix for Armor. Of course, we're not only looking for a particular number with time short and relationships. It is also important that we have strong compatibility on brand, on technical management, on the quality of the ships, on the quality of the technical management company behind that vessel as we then move it into the auto tonnage list that it is fully up to our expectations because we have a strong following among our community of customers and charters and maintaining that is also really important for us. So in principle, very much part of the playbook, even though that might not be the case today. .

Operator

At this time, we have no other questions registered, which will conclude the question-and-answer session as well as our conference call today. I would like to thank everybody for taking the time to attend and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have yourselves a good afternoon.