第一網聯銀行 (INBK) 2026年第3季法說會：營收創新高與第4季展望

重點摘要

• First Internet Bancorp 公布 2026 年第三季淨利為 480 萬美元，即稀釋後每股盈餘 0.54 美元。扣除 40 萬美元的非經常性遣散費後，調整後每股盈餘為 0.57 美元。
• 總營收達到創紀錄的 4,390 萬美元，季增 7%。調整後撥備前淨收益比第二季成長 14%，達到 1,710 萬美元。
• 淨利息收入季增 7%、年增 14%，達到創紀錄的 3,470 萬美元。完全應稅等值淨息差擴大 8 個基點至 2.55%。
• 信用趨勢廣泛改善，撥備費用降至 1,160 萬美元，淨沖銷金額下降超過一半，逾期率從第二季的 78 個基點降至 48 個基點。
• 由於提列 260 萬美元的特定準備金及相關利息迴轉，一筆大型特許經營融資客戶關係使稅前盈餘減少約 320 萬美元，即稀釋後每股盈餘減少 0.29 美元。
• 管理層預計 2026 年第四季稀釋後每股盈餘約為 1.02 至 1.07 美元，受惠於息差進一步擴大、淨利息收入增加以及撥備費用降低。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

First Internet Bancorp 繼續將資金從較低收益或已退出的資產組合中轉出。新發放貸款的加權平均收益率為 7.51%，有助於將整體放款組合收益率推升至 6.42%。

建築與投資型商業不動產、單一承租人租賃融資、財富顧問貸款以及嵌入式金融業務在該季度實現成長。醫療保健融資、特許經營融資和住宅房屋抵押貸款則持續減少。管理層表示，這種資產組合重新調整能在不需要大幅擴充資產負債表的情況下帶動利息收入成長。

金融科技存款增加略高於 10 億美元，達到 47 億美元，其中季末有 29 億美元存於表外。表內金融科技平均存款成長 40%，有助於替代成本較高的定期存單和經紀存款。

金融科技手續費收入季增 13%，過去 12 個月累計成長超過 190%。該公司在本季度新增了兩家合作夥伴，並報告了支付、存款和貸款方面的額外客戶導入活動。

SBA 貸款承作量季增 14%，但仍低於管理層預期。公司將產能較軟微歸因於整體產業活動疲軟和內部核貸標準趨嚴。管理層預期 2027 年 SBA 貸款承作量將較 2026 年改善，儘管今年以來平均貸款金額已從略高於 200 萬美元降至約 180 萬美元。

公司還完成了一個多階段的 SBA 貸款自動化發放專案。在目前的採用率下，管理層估計每年可為貸款人員和審核人員創造約 620 小時的處理產能。手動資料輸入減少了 80% 以上，而在比較測試中，SBA 審查核准時間的中位數縮短了約 10 天。

管理層財務指引

假設聯邦基金利率在 12 月升息 25 個基點，管理層提供以下 2026 年第四季展望：

該展望納入了持續的資產組合最佳化、穩定的存款成本、較低放款量的 SBA 貸款以及金融科技手續費的進一步成長。管理層預期第四季平均貸款餘額將以低至中個位數的幅度成長，但受預定的建築貸款還款影響，期末餘額可能大致持平。

展望 2027 年，管理層的初步看法為貸款成長率最高可達約 10%，且淨利息收入預計將以明顯更快的速度成長。營業費用成長預計將遠低於 10%，反映出新招募人數有限以及自動化帶來的持續營運槓桿作用。

風險與關注焦點

由於原定的轉融資計劃短期內無法實施，一名特許經營融資借款人的狀況在本季度末惡化。First Internet Bancorp 將該筆放款轉入非應計列帳，提列 260 萬美元的特定準備金，並迴轉了 60 萬美元的利息收入。管理層表示，仍能看到還款途徑，但根據季末狀況認列了該狀況惡化。

轉入非應計列帳的特許經營融資貸款相關利息迴轉總額為 120 萬美元。這些利息迴轉使第三季淨息差減少了約 9 個基點，放款收益率減少了 12 個基點。

該銀行對負債仍保持適度的敏感度，但管理層表示其敏感度在過去兩年中已大幅下降。在納入 2026 年 12 月和 2027 年 3 月升息的靜態資產負債表情境下，預測的 2027 年淨利息收入可能會減少約 2.5% 至 3%。放款和存款組合的持續改變可能會緩和模型中的影響。

由於審核標準趨嚴和市場活動低迷，預計第四季 SBA 承作量和出售收益將繼續偏低。金融科技存款流入時機以及預定的建築貸款償還也可能使季度資產負債表成長出現波動。

分析師問答重點

• 利率敏感度：管理層表示，隨著低收益率貸款到期並重新投向高收益率或浮動利率資產，隨著時間推移，每次額外的升息所帶來的影響應會逐漸減弱。
• 2027 年息差走勢：在預測的升息情境下，管理層仍預計 2027 年第四季淨息差將比 2026 年第四季高出約 10 個基點。如果沒有升息，估計將擴大約 20 個基點。
• 資產重新定價：放款組合中固定利率佔 57%、浮動利率佔 43%，而 2024 年 9 月時分別為固定利率 75% 與浮動利率 25%。管理層估計有 21 億美元的貸款和證券會立即或在三個月內重新定價。
• 信用成本：管理層建議將 2026 年第四季撥備展望進行年化處理，作為建構 2027 年模型的保守起點，同時指出實際結果可能會更好。
• 資本配置：執行長 David Becker 表示，公司目前傾向將資本用於增加貸款和推動資產負債表成長，而非實施庫藏股買回。

法說會完整逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Trevor, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the First Internet Bancorp Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter 2026. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Julia Ferrara from ICR. You may begin your conference.

Julia Ferrara

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss First Internet Bancorp's Third Quarter 2026 Financial results.

The company issued its earnings press release earlier this afternoon, and it is available on the company's website at www.firstinternetbancorp.com. In addition, the company has included a slide presentation that you can refer to during the call. You can also access these slides on the website. Joining us from the management team today are Chairman and CEO, David Becker; President and COO, Nicole Lorch; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Ken Lovik. David and Nicole will provide an overview, and Ken will discuss the financial results, and then we'll open up the call for your questions.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking statements with respect to the future performance and financial conditions of First Internet Bancorp that involves risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed in the company's SEC filings, which are available on the company's website. The company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call.

Additionally, management may refer to non-GAAP measures, which are intended to supplement but not substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The press release available on the website contains the financial and other quantitative information to be discussed today as well as the reconciliation of the GAAP and non-GAAP measures.

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to David.

David Becker

Thank you, Julia. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

Let me start with the headline. The fundamental earnings power of First Internet Bancorp continues to improve. We generated record revenue in the third quarter. We expanded net interest margin for the fourth consecutive quarter. We grew adjusted pre-provision net revenue 14% from the second quarter. We continue to improve the mix of loans and deposits while deploying capital efficiently. At the same time, the overall credit normalization we discussed last quarter is on track with net charge-offs and delinquencies declining meaningfully.

For the third quarter, we are reporting earnings of $0.54 per diluted share. Excluding nonrecurring expenses, adjusted earnings per share rose to $0.57, more than double what we reported last quarter. We also had one significant credit relationship move against us late in the quarter. I want to address that one directly. Earlier in the quarter, we were working with a franchise finance borrower on a forbearance arrangement. It was intended to give the borrower time to refinance with another lender. Late in the quarter, the borrower's financial condition deteriorated and it became clear that refinancing was no longer viable in the near term. We moved the relationship to nonaccrual. We established a $2.6 million specific reserve and reversed $600,000 of interest income. For this relationship, we believe there remains a path to repayment. However, based on what we knew at quarter end, including the delinquent status of the related loans, the prudent course of action was to recognize the deterioration, and we did. That's the bad news in the quarter, but it is important not to lose sight of what happened everywhere else in the business.

Provision expense declined sequentially. Net charge-offs fell by more than half. Delinquencies fell to 48 basis points from 78 in the second quarter. That includes a significant drop in franchise finance delinquencies. Those are meaningful improvements, and they show the broader credit trends are moving in the direction we expected. More importantly, our operating performance gave us the capacity to absorb the impact of this relationship. We produced record revenue, record net interest income and continued margin expansion, and we still grew adjusted pre-provision earnings by double digits. That's what I mean when I say the fundamental earnings power of this company is improving.

We are confident in the direction of the business as we execute on our strategy with foresight and discipline. Nicole will talk about how that strategy is changing the economics of our business for the better, and then Ken will walk through the financial results and what we expect in the fourth quarter. Nicole?

Nicole Lorch

Thanks, David.

The way I would characterize this quarter is simple. The business model is working. We're seeing the benefit of decisions we've made over multiple quarters about where we deploy capital, how we fund the balance sheet and which businesses can generate attractive returns without requiring traditional balance sheet growth.

Start with lending. We continue to move capital out of lower-yielding or exited portfolios and into businesses where we see stronger risk-adjusted returns. New funded originations came on to the balance sheet this quarter at a weighted average yield of 7.51%. That is the strategy in action. As lower-yielding loans pay down, we redeploy that capital into opportunities with better returns. Quarter by quarter, that is changing the economics of the portfolio. This quarter, the overall portfolio yield increased another 8 basis points to 6.42%. The point isn't simply that loans grew, it is what is growing and what is shrinking. Construction and investor commercial real estate, single-tenant lease financing, wealth advisory lending and embedded finance grew during the quarter.

At the same time, health care finance, franchise finance and residential mortgage continued to run off. That remixing let us grow interest income faster than the balance sheet. We don't need outsized balance sheet growth to grow earnings. That's exactly what we've been working toward. Our fintech partnership business adds another dimension that model. Fintech deposits increased just over $1 billion during the quarter to $4.7 billion, including $2.9 billion held off balance sheet at quarter end. Average on-balance sheet fintech deposits increased 40%, giving us additional capacity to replace higher cost CDs and brokered deposits with lower-cost fintech funding. But the value of the fintech franchise goes well beyond funding.

Fintech fee revenue increased 13% from the second quarter and is up more than 190% on a trailing 12-month basis. We added 2 partners during the quarter and have additional partners in the onboarding pipeline across payments, deposits and lending. So fintech is doing multiple jobs for us. It is improving our funding mix. It is generating fee income. And through embedded lending, it is creating another avenue to deploy capital and grow interest income. Those pieces reinforce one another, making the business more valuable as we scale it.

Now SBA. Production here has been softer than we expected. Originations increased 14% sequentially, but overall activity did not reach the level we anticipated. Industry volume has been weaker, and we've also deliberately tightened our own underwriting standards over the past several quarters. Let me be clear about the trade-off we're making. We are not going to manufacture loan growth by compromising credit discipline. The SBA changes that became effective October 1 reinforced several of the underwriting principles we've been applying for the last year.

With industry activity subdued and our underwriting standards tighter, we expect SBA originations and gain-on-sale revenue to remain lower in the fourth quarter. We can live with that on a short-term basis. Yes, we want the volume, but we want the right volume. And the credit trends David discussed tell us the changes we have made in underwriting, servicing and portfolio management are having the intended effect. And this quarter illustrates something important about the company we have built. SBA production was below our expectations and yet we generated record revenue. That does not mean SBA matters less to us. It demonstrates that our sources of revenue are steadily diversifying.

Finally, I want to spend a moment on operating leverage because this is just as central to where we're taking the company. Our technology strategy is not about implementing AI for the sake of AI. The objective is straightforward: use technology to support more customer activity, more revenue and more growth without requiring expenses to increase at the same rate. We're beginning to see tangible evidence of that. During the third quarter, we completed a multiphase project to automate significant portions of SBA origination. At current usage levels, we estimate that work creates approximately 620 hours of annual lender and processor capacity. Manual data entry has been reduced by more than 80% and median SBA approval time in the measured comparison improved by roughly 10 days. We're now looking at how to apply similar capabilities elsewhere in the company.

Step back and the picture is clear, we're generating higher returns from the loan portfolio. We're lowering our funding costs through fintech deposits. We're growing fee-generating businesses that don't depend entirely on balance sheet growth, and we're creating operating capacity to support growth without a commensurate increase in expense. We have more ways to generate revenue, more ways to fund growth and more places to put capital to work at attractive returns than we did just a few years ago. That diversification matters. We are building a company with multiple sources of revenue and growth that build on one another. The result is a broader, more durable revenue engine and a business model with more levers for creating value. That is what we mean when we say the business model is working.

Ken will now tie these strategies into our financial results and what they mean for the fourth quarter. Ken?

Kenneth Lovik

Thanks, Nicole.

We reported third quarter net income of $4.8 million or $0.54 per diluted share. Excluding $400,000 of nonrecurring severance expense, adjusted net income was $5.1 million or $0.57 per diluted share. Total revenue reached a record $43.9 million, up 7% sequentially. Combined with well-managed expenses, adjusted pre-provision net revenue increased 14% from the second quarter to $17.1 million. Net interest income was also a record at $34.7 million or $35.9 million on a fully taxable equivalent basis, up 7% sequentially and 14% year-over-year.

Net interest margin expanded 8 basis points to 2.47% or 2.55% on a fully taxable equivalent basis. Strong growth in net interest income was achieved despite $1.2 million of interest reversals associated with franchise finance loans moved to nonaccrual status, which reduced net interest margin by approximately 9 basis points. Half of those reversals are related to the relationship David discussed. The underlying margin drivers remain favorable on both sides of the balance sheet. Loan yields increased 8 basis points sequentially to 6.42% as we continue to redeploy capital from lower-yielding portfolios into our core and emerging lending businesses. At the same time, the cost of interest-bearing deposits declined 6 basis points to 3.32% as fintech deposits replaced higher cost CDs and brokered deposits. That's the balance sheet strategy David and Nicole described, and you're now seeing it flow through the income statement.

As we look at the interest rate environment going forward, we remain modestly liability sensitive, but materially less so than we were 2 years ago. Our loan portfolio is now 57% fixed rate, 43% adjustable rate compared with 75% fixed and 25% adjustable in September 2024. We have also emphasized shorter duration securities as we reinvest cash flows. We analyzed several rate scenarios on a static balance sheet, assuming 2 more Fed rate increases over the next several months, ranging from parallel and ramped rate shocks to a bear flattener scenario with rate increases in December 2026 and March 2027. The most punitive scenarios indicate about a negative impact of 2.5% to 3% on forecasted net interest income over the course of 2027, which we do expect to be up substantially over 2026. Importantly, though, these are static assumptions. Continued execution of our lending and deposit strategies significantly reduces the modeled effect.

Turning to credit. Provision expense declined to $11.6 million from $13.4 million in the second quarter, reflecting lower net charge-offs, partially offset by higher specific reserves on franchise finance loans. That large relationship accounted for $2.6 million of specific reserves, including the associated interest reversal, actions taken on this relationship reduced pretax earnings by approximately $3.2 million or $0.29 per diluted share. Outside of that relationship, the broader trend improved. Net charge-offs and delinquencies both declined materially during the quarter, while nonperforming loans increased as additional franchise finance balances moved to nonaccrual, including $6.6 million related to the large relationship.

Now let me turn to our outlook for the fourth quarter. We continue to expect fully taxable equivalent net interest margin of 2.75% to 2.80% and fully taxable equivalent net interest income of around $38.5 million, driven by continued portfolio optimization and stable deposit costs, assuming a 25 basis point increase in the Fed funds rate in December. We expect noninterest income of around $7.5 million, incorporating our revised expectation for lower SBA originations, but offset by continued growth in fintech fee revenue. Additionally, noninterest expense should come in around $26.5 million.

And based on the improving delinquency trends and the franchise finance actions taken this quarter, we expect provision expense of $7.5 million to $8 million. Those assumptions lead us to expect fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of approximately $1.02 to $1.07. In the second quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.27. This quarter, operating earnings per share more than doubled. We believe it will nearly double again in the fourth quarter. We believe that outlook demonstrates the underlying earnings trajectory we have been discussing today, continued growth in net interest income, continued margin expansion, growing fintech fee revenue, disciplined expenses and moderating credit costs.

With that, I'll turn it back to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Brett Rabatin with StoneX.

分析師問答

Brett Rabatin

I wanted to start with, Ken, maybe just some color around the guidance. When I think about the margin guidance for the fourth quarter, you kind of do it a couple of different ways. But essentially, you're kind of implying a 15 basis point increase in earning asset yields and a 15 basis point increase in -- or decrease in funding...

Operator

My apologies, Brett, sorry to interrupt. This is Trevor, the Q4 moderator. We're just having a technical issue on our end. We're going to pause the podcast briefly for technical issues. Please stand by while we resolve the issue. Thank you. [Technical Difficulty] We have resolved the issue. Brett, if you wouldn't mind starting your question over again, please? We will move on to the next question. If Brett would like to redial-in and join the queue, that would be great.

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Switzer with KBW.

Timothy Switzer

I appreciate all the color on the potential impact of rate hikes on NII. I just want to make sure I heard it right. Did you say 125 basis point rate hike would have about a 2% to 3% impact on annualized NII in '27? Is that the right number?

Kenneth Lovik

No, it was 2 rate hikes, Tim. We modeled in -- we assumed that we would get a rate hike in December, and we would get a rate hike in March.

Timothy Switzer

Those are a 2% to 3% impact to '27 NII.

Kenneth Lovik

Yes. And I would also add to that, that also captures kind of the fully baked-in impact of the rate hike that we had back in September as well.

Timothy Switzer

Okay. That's very helpful. And if we think about the -- I guess, the path of this rate hike cycle, it's obviously a little uncertain right now. If we continue to get several rate hikes at a gradual pace, does that impact change over time? Or is it pretty consistent?

Kenneth Lovik

No. The further we get out, I guess, as more time elapses, each rate hike becomes less impactful. So one thing we did analyze, we looked at another rate hike in September, and that was significantly less, call it, 50 basis points. So it kind of ratchets down because if you think about it, we continue to have lower-yielding loans continue to pay down. Those get redeployed into variable rate channels such as construction, investor commercial real estate, SBA or get originated in a higher rate environment. And we continue to kind of have some of the CDs pay down as well. So it just -- over time, the impact of rate hikes get muted.

Timothy Switzer

Okay. That makes sense. In the scenario with a hike in December, hike in March, do you think we can have a higher NIM in Q4 '27 compared to Q4 '26?

Kenneth Lovik

Absolutely. I think the way to think about it is we do -- and Nicole talked about this in her comments, we get an incredibly powerful bump from just redeploying cash flows from, say, the health care portfolio, the residential mortgage portfolio, public finance. And if you think about -- maybe one way to look at it is like over the next 12 months, we'll have about, call it, $200 million of principal cash flows from those portfolios as well as franchise finance in there as well at kind of, call it, a blended 4% to 4.5% rate. Those are being redeployed 300 to 350 basis points higher. So we're still -- I guess the way to think about a rate hike for us is if we didn't have a rate hike, if we had no rate hikes in the model, understanding that we're going to get less deposit leverage as more CDs roll off, let's just say NIM would be up 20 basis points fourth quarter of '27 versus fourth quarter of '26. That increase gets cut in half. That would go to perhaps 10 basis points of NIM increase. So we continue -- our expectation is to continue growing NII. And we do expect NIM expansion. It will just be a little bit muted because of the impact of rate hikes.

Timothy Switzer

Okay. That's very clear. Appreciate it. And then the other follow-up I have is, as we look into 2027, I know it's a little uncertain, but how can we think about the trajectory of some of the key credit metrics and provision costs as we move throughout the year?

Kenneth Lovik

Yes. I think the way that we're looking at it, we gave some outlook on what we think fourth quarter is going to look like. I think a conservative approach would be to say, take our fourth quarter and run rate that for the year. I think we hope that we can come in better than that. But I think that might be a conservative way to model it as you look at '27.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brett Rabatin with StoneX.

Brett Rabatin

Can you hear me okay?

Kenneth Lovik

Yes, pretty loud.

Brett Rabatin

Yes, I don't know what happened. So anyway, I wanted to just go back to the guidance and just thinking about the various numbers. The margin guidance for the fourth quarter, Ken, essentially, we're kind of looking at 15 basis points up on average earning asset yields and 15 basis points down on funding costs. Is that a fair way to think about the fourth quarter dynamic with the margin and then the NII guide related to that would kind of suggest flattish earning assets in 4Q relative to 3Q. Are those 2 things kind of in your ballpark of thinking or any thoughts on those 2 line items?

Kenneth Lovik

No, you probably see on average some growth in interest-earning assets. Again, it kind of comes back to the thing you need to think about and as I explained to Tim and Nicole talked about, was just the redeployment of cash flows coming from lower-yielding portfolios. One thing, too, in the fourth quarter in terms of the impact of the September rate hike, certain of our fintech deposits all kind of reprice in different cadence. So while we'll get the benefit, we will get a benefit of a full -- pretty much across the board on all of our assets. Some of that rate hike, the impact on fintech deposits kind of has to get layered in over the course of a few months. So we don't really feel the full impact of a rate hike immediately on all of our fintech deposits.

But I do think deposit costs will probably be flattish, but the earning asset yields should be up -- should continue to grow as they did last quarter. And I think one thing you probably need to think about when you do the math on that is the large relationship that David talked about and some other interest reversals, those did impact margin in the past -- in third quarter by 9 basis points. They impacted loan yields by 12 basis points. So it is from kind of period-over-period, the growth might seem like a lot. But when you take into effect what we had to reverse out, I think the growth is more -- it's strong because of the assets we're putting on the books today, but it might not be as eye-popping as if you're just doing the math right now.

Brett Rabatin

Okay. That's helpful. And then on credit, I wanted to ask, you obviously had the franchise finance issue this quarter that would seem to be a bit unexpected. But just wanted to see if there were underlying trends with franchise finance or the SBA portfolio relative to maybe a quarter ago? And then just wanted to get an update. I know that the 2Q substandard or special mention loans were higher due to those commercial real estate loans, those 4 properties in the nonowner-occupied bucket that were going to go through stabilization. Just wanted to see how that was trending for those credits as well.

David Becker

Two of the 4 credits have been, I guess, raising the ratings on them. They're back to performing and everything is according to plan. We did have a couple of others. The regulators made it pretty clear if they're slow on construction, slow on lease-up. Obviously, there's some crazy weather going on across the United States right now. So we have very few construction projects 100% on target and on time that they want us to change the ratings on them because they're not performing to the original plan. So we've had loans move in and loans move out, but we're not worried about credit on any of those loans at the current time. There's no big change other than things are getting better in the SBA and the franchise pools.

The one loan that we had to, by policy, take the hit on at the tail end was literally the Friday afternoon at 4:00 when we got worried that the loan refinance was not going to come through before quarter end, and we made that adjustment. It's a great customer. He's talking with us, working with us. He's got a business person. He's a multi-franchise owner of different franchises and stuff, and he's got an outside counsel working with them to kind of stabilize this organization, and we think we're going to recover. We have credit committee this morning. Nobody is sweating that we feel at the current time, we've more than reserved for that loan and issues. But overall, as the delinquency fell third quarter versus second quarter, going into fourth quarter, we're starting off with a pretty clean slate, and we're looking good for year-end.

As Ken said, if you take the charge-offs we did have first and second quarter, take where we're going to be anticipated in the fourth quarter, we definitely moved the needle by millions over the course of the year. And we think that's a conservative estimate, if you just take that number running forward into '27 that we can even do better than that. So no fear on this side. Let me say we had an incident with the one loan, but everything else is right on target, doing exactly what we thought it would be doing.

Brett Rabatin

Okay. And if I could sneak in one last one just around SBA, thinking about that business into '27. You've obviously taken a more measured approach to it. This year, you've ratcheted down on the underwriting standards, and so that's kind of led to reduced originations and gain-on-sale trends. Is there more ratcheting still to happen that could reduce that further in '27? Do we grow in '27 in SBA? Just any thoughts on where you see that business trending relative to the fourth quarter?

Nicole Lorch

Sure. Thanks for the question, Brett. We are looking forward to 2027 being stronger in terms of origination volume than it has been in 2026. The SBA across the country production has been off. SBA recently issued new SOPs that were effective October 1. That changed some of the parameters for business acquisition lending, which is a key component of our SBA program. But much of what SBA is now requiring were things that we had like quality of earnings reports, for instance, on certain size deals. We were already doing that -- have been doing that for a year. So I think the largest and most tightening that we did in underwriting guidelines was about a year ago this time. So we are getting back to normalizing our volume as our lenders have pivoted, have reached out to new referral sources and in some ways, have even been trying to diversify the types of deals.

We're also seeing that the loan size on average is coming down a bit. So even if loan numbers might -- they're a little softer, but you're going to see a bigger impact on production volume because the average loan size has gone from a little over $2 million to year-to-date, it's been more like $1.8 million. Some of that is because we were seeing disproportionate credit struggles with the larger sized loans. And so we've put more scrutiny on those new loans as they're coming through origination for approval. So the loan size has been coming in over the last 2 years, which has also been going to impact volume.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nathan Race with Piper Sandler.

Nathan Race

Just going back to the margin discussion a bit. Just curious kind of what the deposit growth expectations are for the fourth quarter and thinking about just the size of the balance sheet and earning assets. And to what extent kind of that margin guide contemplates cash coming down. It looked like it was a bit elevated in the quarter relative to 2Q. So Ken, I'm not sure if you could share some thoughts on those topics.

Kenneth Lovik

Yes. I think at quarter end, our cash balance was elevated. It happens probably more frequently than not because of month end, quarter end payment activity from one of our fintech partners, their clients. So the period-end balance was up. But even if you look at the quarter balance in cash, it was elevated relative to where it has been. We do expect that cash balance to start coming down. Maybe the average balance hopefully will be down about $100 million or so if we look into the fourth quarter and into next year. A little hard to predict that, but that's what we're forecasting right now. So as you're putting that cash to use, right, it's kind of the same thing as redeploying the cash flows from the lower-yielding portfolios.

So we don't -- we got a little bit of earning asset growth. We do -- we will have some scheduled larger paydowns in construction happening in this fourth quarter. So the period-end balance may be certainly lower than what the average is going to be. But there will be -- it will be deposit growth to support that a little bit unpredictable just because of the timing of when fintech deposits come on, but we do try to push as much of that off as we can to kind of try to start to increase that loans-to-deposit ratio. But kind of all in all, loan growth should be higher than deposit growth because we are putting that cash -- excess cash to work.

Nathan Race

Okay. Got it. And then can you just remind me, I apologize, I hopped on late, just kind of what the loan growth expectations are for the fourth quarter and then as you get into 2027 as well?

Kenneth Lovik

For the fourth quarter, like I said, period end will be -- not be down, but period end might be flattish because we -- as I said, we do have some large payoffs occurring later this quarter in the construction bucket. But the average balance should be up kind of maybe low- to mid-single digits. And I think as we look into next year, we're obviously still working on our forecast for next year. But again, kind of coming back to a comment Nicole made, we don't have to grow the loan portfolio at a high rate to drive what we would call continued significant growth in NII. So if we're thinking about loan growth for next year, I'd call it -- let's just call it to 10%, but we fully expect NII to be up much higher than 10% next year.

Nathan Race

Got it. Okay. And just kind of unpacking the margin drivers around Fed rate hikes or just kind of the key factors that I think you alluded to earlier. Just can you just update us in terms of kind of your index deposit levels, maybe on a dollar percentage basis of total deposits. And then I think you mentioned the floating rate loans as well and how that proportion has increased. But can you just give us maybe the breakdown more specifically between prime and SOFR just given that SOFR moved ahead of the Fed rate hike in September?

Kenneth Lovik

Well, every -- I guess the way to look at it is probably everything in the investor commercial real estate and the construction bucket is SOFR based. Everything in the SBA bucket, the small business lending, that's prime based. I think where we feel good on the front end of the curve heading into, again, a potentially rate hiking cycle is that, as I said, normalized -- the period-end deposits were elevated, cash was elevated. But if we kind of normalize some of the payments programs we do for our fintech borrowers, you could probably say in the third quarter, normalized deposits from fintech and others that were tied to Fed funds were, call it, $1.9 billion.

If I look on the other side of the balance sheet, though, we have -- as we said on the call, we're 57% fixed, 43% variable or adjustable rate today. That 43% translates into, call it, somewhere between $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion, but if you extend that to our securities portfolio, where we have been buying variable rate bonds as well that are generally -- again, those are tied to SOFR or prime. That's another $400 million to $500 million. So we got $2.1 billion of assets that reprice immediately as well -- or immediately or within the next 3 months. So it's -- again, I think we've done a lot of things on the balance sheet side to make the asset side far more variable rate and obviously gives us a lot of protection going into a potentially tightening rate cycle.

Nathan Race

Got you. And I'm sure it's kind of middle innings of your budget and planning process for next year, but you're tracking for -- with the 4Q guide, 10% expense growth this year. Any kind of early thoughts on kind of what the expense growth outlook looks like for next year, particularly if you're growing loans, kind of 10%-ish as you alluded to?

Kenneth Lovik

No, I think we'll come in lower than that. I think it will speak to some of the comments that Nicole made about operating leverage and our increasing use of AI to streamline. I mean, I'll tell you, we don't have a lot of new -- I don't think we have any brand-new positions to hire for, for next year. We might replace some people, but certainly, any headcount, any increases in the compensation line item is really going to just have to do with merit and truing up bonuses.

And again, as Nicole talked about, SBA production is expected to be up next year. So we'll have higher commissions there. We'll continue -- our construction business as well. So there's incentive comp there. But I think across the board, other than perhaps some of the -- as our fintech programs begin to grow, especially on the lending side and pay program management fees, there'll probably be some increase in that loan expense line item there. But most other line items are expected to be either flat to just modestly up. So when you boil all that together, it's much less than a 10% expense growth.

Nathan Race

Okay. Great. And then maybe one last one for David. Is there a specific TCE or capital ratio target you're looking for to maybe reenter the market and start buying back shares?

David Becker

From my perspective, rather than buying back shares, I'd rather throw out some more loans and make some more money. So yes, I think from the capital standpoint, we're good and we're operating within the right parameters. But if we can grow capital, I think we'll grow balance sheet and add more loans and activity. We got an awful lot of cash sitting on the sideline if we can put it to work, then goes up, earnings go up, everything works to our favor. So rather than buyback, I think we'll use it to expand the balance sheet.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to David Becker for closing remarks.

David Becker

Thanks, Trevor, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today and all your thoughtful questions. We're sorry for the little SNAFU we had, but apparently it worked out great on your end. It was a little choppy on our side. But as just discussed here, particularly during the Q&A, we're really pleased with the progress that we made this past quarter. We're even more optimistic about fourth quarter and where we're going into '27. So we appreciate your continued support and look forward to updating you again at the end of next quarter. Have a good evening.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.