多明尼克能源 (D) 2026 年第三季法說會：財測指引、CVOW 與資料中心需求

重點摘要

• 2026 年第三季營運每股盈餘為 每股 1.28 美元，其中包括 來自 RNG 45Z 抵減的每股 0.05 美元與 來自優於正常氣候的每股 0.05 美元。GAAP 每股盈餘為 每股 1.30 美元。
• Dominion Energy 現預計全年業績將落在原先財測範圍的上半區段，理由包含銷量強勁、氣候有利、高於預期的 45Z 抵減收入以及優異的營運執行力。
• 維吉尼亞沿海離岸風力發電專案 (CVOW) 已完工約 85%。公司維持其 116.5 億美元的預算，並預計於 2027 年底前完工。
• Dominion 報告指出，處於各簽約階段的資料中心容量超過 54 GW，其中超過 12 GW 已簽署供電服務協議。
• 擬議與 NextEra Energy 併購案的目標仍為在 2027 年下半年完成交割，惟仍須取得州與聯邦主管機關的批准。
• 相較於先前的優先方案，Dominion 更新後的維吉尼亞資源計畫新增並加速推進了 4 GW 的太陽能與 2 GW 的電池儲能。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

Dominion 服務區域內的電力需求持續強勁。DOM 區域夏季用電尖峰天數（共 10 天）均發生於 2026 年，而 DESC 亦於 8 月創下歷史用電新高。

公司表示，其維吉尼亞的大型負載框架旨在確保資料中心客戶分攤支持成長所需的投資，從而降低現有客戶的成本轉移與沉沒成本風險。自前一年底以來，已簽約的資料中心容量增加了超過 6 GW，即 13%。

CVOW 已安裝 44 座風力發電機，代表超過 640 MW 的發電容量，在法說會進行時正安裝第 45 座風機。所有機艙、塔架及葉片均已製造完成。

最近 9 座風力發電機的平均安裝時間約為 38 小時，而前 10 座則為 69 小時。管理層表示，氣候與 Charybdis 號維護作業放緩了 9 月與 10 月的進度，但影響仍控制在先前設定的預備時程範圍內。

Dominion 估計，CVOW 在營運的前 10 年內可為客戶節省約 50 億美元的燃料費用。其均化能源成本仍低於適用法定門檻，且計算時已將再生能源憑證收入用來抵減專案成本。

在維吉尼亞州，Dominion 更新後的綜合資源計畫將 2030 年至 2034 年規劃的電池容量從 850 MW 提高至 3.3 GW。管理層將每吉瓦 (GW) 視為潛在的 25 億至 30 億美元資本投資機會，儘管部分專案可能採用購電合約 (PPA) 架構，而非納入 Dominion 的費率基礎。

在 Millstone 核電廠方面，管理層表示，現有的購電合約預計將在 2026 年為康乃狄克州客戶節省超過 2.45 億美元，其中包括今年迄今已節省的 2 億美元。根據目前的遠期曲線，Dominion 估計在該合約 10 年期內，累積可為客戶節省超過 9 億美元。

管理層指引

Dominion 預計全年營運業績將落在原先財測範圍的上半區段。該展望對 11 月和 12 月的氣候採取保守估計，並考慮了降低未來財務表現風險的潛在行動。

公司重申了現有的信用、股利及長期成長指引。管理層亦表示，預計 2027 年與 2028 年仍將是股票發行規模相對較少的年份，同時指出尚未提供更新後的預測。

針對 CVOW，Dominion 維持預期專案將於 2027 年底前完工，且第三座亦即最後一座離岸變電站將於 2026 年底前通電啟用。

管理層繼續預計 NextEra Energy 的交易將於 2027 年下半年完成交割。維吉尼亞州的主管機關最終裁決預定於 1 月 11 日出爐，而南卡羅來納州則預定於 2027 年 1 月 29 日出爐。北卡羅來納州的聽證會預計於 2027 年 2 月 23 日開始。

風險與關注事項

• 併購案批准：NextEra 交易仍有待主管機關的審查程序。分析師關注涉及資產隔離（ring-fencing）、股利限制及客戶保護等擬議條件，但管理層拒絕在正式提交書面回應前討論詳細的反駁立場。
• CVOW 執行進度：氣候、船隻維護、航行時間、港口裝載以及艱難的安裝地點都可能影響進度。管理層估計，剩餘計畫留有約 30 至 95 天的氣候、維護與其他預備時間。
• REC 定價：管理層表示，再生能源憑證 (REC) 價格難以預測。REC 價格的變動會影響 CVOW 計算出的均化能源成本。
• Millstone 簽約：康乃狄克州監管機構表明將於今年晚些時候對零碳能源招標 (RFP) 流程作出決定，但管理層表示，公開資訊的時間點與範圍仍不確定。
• 氣候敏感度：全年財測指引對 2026 年最後兩個月的氣候狀況納入了保守估計。

分析師問答環節亮點

關於 NextEra 併購案，管理層強調，維吉尼亞州適用的法律標準為該交易是否會以公正合理的費率損害或危及充分的服務。Dominion 主張，其提出的客戶折抵、能源補助、勞動力投資及供應商承諾，已超越了「無害」標準。

關於 CVOW 時程安排，管理層表示仍有 132 座風力發電機需要在截至 2027 年底的約 425 至 427 個日曆天內安裝。以每座風機需 1.5 至 2 天計算，安裝將需要約 200 至 265 天，而 33 次港口裝載作業可能需要約 130 天。

在被問及大型專案執行能力時，管理層強調了經驗豐富的施工團隊、建立良好的承包商關係、供應鏈監督以及對許可證流程的熟悉度。管理層還提到在風力發電機、單樁基礎與轉接段安裝方面，隨著學習曲線累積而獲得的效益提升。

關於維吉尼亞州的儲能投資，管理層表示，在《維吉尼亞清潔經濟法案》規範下，大部分規劃容量可能由公司自行建造，而部分專案將採用購電合約 (PPA) 架構，因此不會納入費率基礎。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Welcome to the Dominion Energy Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to David McFarland, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, and Treasurer.

David McFarland

Good morning, and thank you for joining Dominion Energy's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Earnings materials, including today's prepared remarks, contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q for a discussion of factors that may cause results to differ from management's estimates and expectations.

This morning, we will discuss some measures of our company's performance that differ from those recognized by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, which we can calculate, are contained in the Earnings Release Kit. I encourage you to visit our Investor Relations website to review webcast slides as well as the Earnings Release Kit.

Joining today's call are Bob Blue, Chair, President and Chief Executive Officer; Steven Ridge, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and other members of senior management. I will now turn the call over to Steven.

Steven Ridge

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. We continue to be focused on 3 top priorities: first, consistent achievement of our financial commitments; second, continued achievement of major construction milestones for the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project; and third, constructive achievement of regulatory outcomes that demonstrate our ability to work cooperatively with regulators and stakeholders to benefit both customers and shareholders. As we'll discuss today, we continue to demonstrate success against these priorities, extending our track record of high-quality and consistent execution. I'll cover financial results in my remarks. Bob will provide updates on the NextEra Energy combination, CVOW and other business items in his remarks.

Turning first to third quarter results, as shown on Slide 3. Third quarter operating earnings were $1.28 per share, including $0.05 from RNG 45Z credits and $0.05 from better-than-normal weather. Third quarter GAAP results were $1.30 per share. A summary of earnings drivers relative to the prior year period is included in Schedule 4 of the Earnings Release Kit, and a summary of all adjustments between operating and GAAP results is included in Schedule 2 of the Earnings Release Kit.

Turning now to guidance. Year-to-date operating EPS has benefited from better-than-budgeted sales, better-than-normal weather and higher-than-expected 45Z credit income, combined with strong overall financial and operational execution. Inclusive of conservatism for balance of year weather as well as potential opportunities to derisk future financial performance, we now expect full year results to be in the top half of our original guidance range. We've provided year-over-year drivers for the fourth quarter in the appendix of today's materials for your reference. Additionally, we are reaffirming all other existing financial guidance provided on our fourth quarter earnings call, including credit, dividend and long-term growth guidance.

Turning to financing on Slide 4. We made significant progress on our financing plan during the quarter, successfully executing several planned transactions while continuing to manage the balance sheet, consistent with our robust credit guidance. In September, the Virginia State Corporation Commission approved our fuel securitization financing petition, representing the balance of approximately $900 million, helping mitigate near-term fuel-related impacts on customer bills.

Turning briefly to sales. We're continuing to see strong sales in our service areas with LTM weather normal electric sales growth of 3.4% across DEV and DESC. In addition, all 10 of the DOM zone's summer peak demand days have occurred in 2026. And in August, DESC set a new all-time electric peak.

Turning to Slide 5. Since our last update, we continue to see robust and durable demand from our differentiated, high-quality, low-risk data center customers across multiple localities in Virginia. And we're bringing these customers onto our system in the right way: protecting existing customers from cost shifts while mitigating stranded cost risk by utilizing a large load framework approved by the Virginia State Corporation Commission in our most recent biennial review that ensures these customers continue to pay their fair share of the investments required to support their growth.

We now have over 54 gigawatts of data center capacity in various stages of contracting, including over 12 gigawatts of capacity contracted under electric service agreements. To put that in context, we've added over 6 gigawatts of contracts or 13% since the end of last year.

In conclusion, I'm highly confident in our ability to deliver on our financial plan. We've built our plan to be appropriately but also not unreasonably conservative to weather unforeseen challenges that may occur.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

Robert Blue

Thank you, Steven. I'll begin with safety on Slide 6. Through September, our employee OSHA injury recordable rate was 0.41, which remains well below industry average. Safety is our first core value, and we're always focused on driving workplace injuries to 0.

Turning next to our announced combination with NextEra Energy. As we detailed in May, this transaction represents a truly transformational opportunity to bring together 2 world-class utilities with 238 years of collective industry experience to even better serve millions of regulated customers across 4 states. Looking ahead, we believe we can accomplish far more on behalf of our customers together than we can apart.

In mid-September, NextEra and Dominion announced an enhanced Virginia benefits package that puts customers first and positions the Commonwealth as a global energy leader. That proposal doubled the duration of residential bill credits, expanded energy bill assistance by $100 million, included a $100 million workforce development fund, committed to creating at least 1,000 new jobs in the Commonwealth, building a new shareholder-funded co-headquarters tower in Richmond and supporting Virginia companies through a $1 billion annual 5-year Virginia supplier program. Over the longer term, customers and communities will benefit from a stronger company with the scale and capabilities to buy, build, finance and operate critical energy infrastructure more efficiently, helping support reliability, affordability and economic growth.

In Virginia, we've received testimony from parties which we will address through rebuttal testimony due November 2. Evidentiary hearings begin on November 17, and the final order is due by January 11 of next year. Ultimately, the State Corporation Commission will decide the case based on the record presented to it and on the legal standard, whether adequate service to the public at just and reasonable rates will not be impaired or jeopardized by the proposed transaction.

Another way of thinking about this is whether the transaction will do no harm to customers. We're confident that we have met that standard. In fact, we've exceeded the standard by proposing significant benefits in terms of customer affordability, jobs in our service area and development of needed energy resources.

In South Carolina, we've received testimony from parties which we will address through rebuttal testimony due November 18. Hearings begin on December 8, with a final order by January 29, 2027. In North Carolina, hearings begin on February 23, 2027. The time lines for each of the proceedings are shown on Slide 7.

Required federal approvals have all been filed and continue to progress. We continue to expect the transaction to close in the second half of 2027. I could not be more excited about the combination of these 2 companies. We'll continue to share updates as we progress through the regulatory process.

Turning next to offshore wind on Slide 8. CVOW continues to make significant progress, with the project approximately 85% complete and the fabrication of all nacelles, towers and blades now complete. We've installed 44 turbines representing more than 640 megawatts of generating capacity, with the installation of the 45th turbine happening now. Installation continues to average approximately 2 days from jack up to jack down, consistent with our assumptions.

July and August turbine installation cadence was in line with expectations, while September and October were below due to a combination of weather and Charybdis maintenance activities, which were completed earlier this month. Importantly, these impacts were within the types of risks contemplated when we added scheduled contingency last quarter. While we utilized a portion of that contingency, our outlook has not changed. We continue to expect project completion by the end of 2027 and energization of the third and final offshore substation by year-end 2026.

From a cost perspective, our current budget remains $11.65 billion, including $123 million of unused contingency. We also continue to see strong customer value. The project's LCOE remains well below the statutory threshold, as well as the range contemplated in our original filing, and we estimate CVOW will generate approximately $5 billion of fuel savings for customers during its first 10 years of operation. Our overall view of the project remains unchanged. CVOW installation has been significantly derisked and continues to make progress against its schedule and cost objectives while delivering significant long-term customer value.

Now I'll turn to other business updates, as shown on Slide 10. In mid-October, we filed our Virginia Integrated Resource Plan update, which included several possible generation build portfolios designed to meet robust customer demand growth. Relative to last year's company preferred plan, we've added and accelerated 4 gigawatts of solar and 2 gigawatts of battery storage. Importantly, under the company's preferred plan, we're meeting our customer needs, protecting system reliability, maintaining affordability with monthly residential electric bills forecasted to increase on average by about 2.3% annually.

We continue to see a growing role for energy storage in Virginia. Our recently filed IRP is an update and represents a snapshot in time, but it already reflects a meaningful increase in storage relative to our prior plan. Importantly, Virginia also enacted significant energy storage legislation this year that establishes substantially higher targets for both short- and long-duration storage. We expect storage to play an increasingly important role as use cases continue to broaden and the technology continues to advance.

We're actively evaluating both short-duration battery storage and emerging long-duration technologies through the lens of reliability, affordability and customer need. And looking longer term, the proposed combination with NextEra Energy would bring together significant capabilities and experience in energy storage. We believe that positions the combined company exceptionally well to deploy storage at scale as the technology matures and system needs evolve.

Finally, on Millstone. In September, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection provided an update on the zero carbon energy request for proposals, indicating that it intends to announce a decision later this year. The facility's existing PPA has delivered tremendous value to customers, lower costs and significantly reduced volatility.

Despite being priced at the time in 2019 above prevailing price outlooks, the contract is expected to save customers over $245 million this year, including $200 million year-to-date, in addition to the over $200 million in savings to customers last year. Based on current forward curves, the contract is expected to save customers in Connecticut over $900 million over the 10-year life, driven by lower energy pricing. We remain focused on achieving a constructive outcome for the facility, which has delivered tremendous value and produced bill reductions for customers in Connecticut through its existing contract. We will continue to provide updates as things develop.

With that, let me summarize our remarks on Slide 11 by reiterating our focus on our 3 top priorities: consistently achieving our financial commitments; continued achievement of major construction milestones for the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project; and achieving constructive regulatory outcomes that demonstrate our ability to work cooperatively with regulators and stakeholders to deliver results that benefit both customers and shareholders. We remain committed to delivering reliable, affordable and increasingly clean power for our customers.

With that, we're ready to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we will take our first question from Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo.

分析師問答

Shahriar Pourreza

So Bob, just on -- just as we're thinking about the deal and sort of the staff, I mean, 57 conditions. I guess, can you highlight where you and the staff are kind of furthest apart? What's the deal breaker? Is it, like, the ring-fencing? Is it the dividend restrictions? Can you close any of these gaps before the hearings next month? And then maybe just lastly, comment on the governor's intervention, which kind of seems a little bit excessive to us. How is that dialogue going?

Robert Blue

Yes, Shar, great question. 57 conditions, a chunk of them are conditions that were ones that we had already voluntarily proposed. So I think it's important to keep that in mind.

But fundamentally, as you heard from John on NextEra's call a week or so ago, we're still focused on the statutory standard, which is no harm. That's what the judges are going to follow. We'll file our rebuttal testimony on Monday. Look forward to the hearing beginning on the 17th of November.

And we remain confident that our position goes beyond the statutory standard, will deliver benefits, not just no harm to Virginia customers, to employees and communities. It's going to keep our company locally led, still regulated by the SEC, fully accountable to them. John said it on their call, the judges of the SCC are going to follow the law. That's the best that we could possibly ask for. And we look forward to presenting our rebuttal testimony on Monday.

Shahriar Pourreza

Got it. And then just the governor, how is that dialogue going? Just, I guess, I don't want to say behind closed doors, but is what we're seeing publicly different than what conversations you're having privately?

Robert Blue

Well, the governor is participating as an intervenor in the case as she is obviously entitled to do, and we welcomed her intervention. We're participating in the case through the filings that we make in the case. We obviously talk to parties as makes sense. But really, our focus right now is the testimony that we're filing on Monday, making sure that we're all very focused on the no harm legal standard.

Shahriar Pourreza

Got it. Perfect. And then just lastly, on CVOW, I mean, obviously, we saw a little bit of a healthy drop in the LCOE to $62. Obviously, a lot of that was driven by RECs going to $38. I guess, what are you seeing in the RECs market that drive that? And is sort of $38 kind of sustainable in your view?

Steven Ridge

Sure. It's Steve. It's hard to predict the price. We obviously reflect it quarterly when we update the filing, and very transparent about it. What we're seeing is a tightening of supply and demand, sort of unsurprisingly. And remember that a large portion of those RECs need to be generated by Virginia resources. And so that obviously adds an additional constraint, which pushes prices up. And remember, the way that math works is that we credit the revenue from those REC-generated sales by CVOW against the LCOE. That's why you see that price come down.

But we've seen it kind of go up and down. It was a little higher. Now it's back down a little lower in terms of the LCOE. I think the most important thing is we continue to believe CVOW will provide significant value to our customers.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nicholas Campanella with Barclays.

Nicholas Campanella

Maybe just sticking with the merger, similar question just on South Carolina. Any reactions to testimony there that recently came in? Is there a path forward to settle South Carolina? And any thoughts on just the bill credit, 4 years versus 2 years?

Robert Blue

Yes. I'll give a similar answer, Nick, to the question I gave on Virginia. We're in the process, in the regulatory process there. We continue to work our way through. You all have the procedural time lines in front of you. Next step for us is for us to file our rebuttal testimony and then go into the hearing.

We continue to believe that we've presented a very strong package in South Carolina the same way we did in Virginia, and we look forward to an opportunity to demonstrate that to the commission. Obviously, we work with parties in all the states and all the regulatory proceedings that we're involved in to try to find a good outcome.

Nicholas Campanella

Okay. And then maybe moving to Millstone. I know you're saying there's a decision here potentially by year-end. Can you just remind folks of the general time line? Do you get term and price by then? Or is that just that Millstone could have been selected as part of this wider process? Maybe just a little mark-to-market on those discussions.

Steven Ridge

Nick, we're encouraged and constructively engaged with the parties in that process. A little difficult to say with certainty as to sort of what would be public at the end of the year. We don't -- certainly don't want to speak for or get ahead of the regulators in this case. But I do think we'll feel like we've got a little bit better sense of where that process is going by the end of the year. And then of course, as we have announcements to make, we'll be excited to make that public to folks.

Operator

Our next question is from Paul Zimbardo with Jefferies. We'll move to our next question from Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

Anthony Crowdell

How about now? Can you hear me? Sorry, has that worked?

Robert Blue

Yes, it works. We were starting to get a little worried there.

Anthony Crowdell

I know. I think Paul is out trick or treating. So he's just probably getting his last candy.

Robert Blue

We're glad to know you waited until the call was over.

Anthony Crowdell

I just have one quick question. You guys gave great clarity on CVOW, continuing to derisk it, I think you're 85% complete. I think maybe it's more of a sector-wide question. The sector is now approaching some large generating project construction. You guys have clearly plowed through this project, which is maybe one of the bigger ones going across the country.

I guess, how should investors think about execution risk across the sector as we're starting to see utilities pursue like larger generating units? You guys have plowed through it, you continue to derisk it. But I don't know if it's lessons learned or something, or what would you tell us we should focus on as you guys are successful with CVOW and we're seeing now other utilities go down this path?

Robert Blue

Yes, that's a great question, Anthony. And I wouldn't limit our experience just to CVOW. It hasn't been that long since we finished some sizable combined cycles here in Virginia. And our focus is having an experienced project construction team that is working with contractors that we have familiarity with. They know the risks to look at. Our Board has become quite comfortable asking us questions about the risks that we should be focused on. Not surprisingly, those line up often around what are your potential labor constraints, how does the supply chain look, and having familiarity with all of that is really valuable.

So at least in our case, we're comforted by the fact that we have an experienced team that has handled big projects. Not just on the gen side, by the way, but on the transmission side of the house as well because we've done an awful lot of that work over the last few years to put that experienced team, combined with strong counterparties where we have confidence in the supply chain.

And then finally, familiarity with the permitting process. I mean, I think we all know that there could be challenges in these projects when permits get off track. And so having the relationships necessary in order to work your way through the permitting process is critical as well.

Operator

Our next question is from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

Carly Davenport

Maybe just to go back to CVOW. I appreciate the time from jack up to jack down is tracking in line with your expectations. I guess, could you just help us think about the other items that can impact the overall timing and how you expect those to trend as we look over the next few months just as we think about weather, et cetera, moving towards the end of the year?

Robert Blue

Yes. I mean, beyond the jack up to jack down time, other factors that we think about that we've identified are weather, maintenance, transit and loadout time. We've made assumptions regarding weather. We don't have the ability to control that, obviously. And then on the other items, our loadout times continue to improve. Our transit times are defined by where we're going on the project. And I think the team has put together a very good schedule to minimize those transit times so that we are putting turbines up close to each other rather than crisscrossing across the project. And maintenance is a factor that we put in, and everything gets a little bit better as we move along.

So if you think about, Carly, when everything we've done on this project, we get quite a bit faster as we go along. Just give you a few statistics on the installation time. So our first 10 turbines took an average of 69 hours each to install. The next 25 took an average of 45 hours, so that's a 35% improvement. And then the most recent 9 averaged 38 hours, which is a 45% improvement to the first 10.

So we're improving on the installations of turbines the same way we improved our timing on monopiles, the same way we improved our timing on transition pieces. As I mentioned, we continue to get faster on the turns at port. Obviously, we don't do as many of those because we're loading 4 turbines each time. But we're getting faster with that as well. I think our plan is good on transit time. And any maintenance we have to do, if we've done it before, it will be faster the next time we do it, as we found going along.

Steven Ridge

Carly, I think it's a really fair question. If I can put some numbers around what I think you're asking about, in addition to the great answer Bob just provided. If you think about the last 3 months, we had about 91 days in that period. 14 were impacted by weather and about 36 by the vessel maintenance we've described, which means we installed about 13 turbines over about 41 available days, which equates to about 3.2 calendar days per turbine, which again is a little higher than the 2 because that doesn't include transit. And looking forward, we have about 425 calendar days left through the end of '27 to install the remaining 132 turbines, which, by coincidence, is also 3.2 days per turbine.

And I think what's important to note, as Bob just mentioned, is the timing for the jack up and jack down, even though our base assumption is 2 days, as he just mentioned, our most recent 9 have been closer to 1.5 days. If you were at 1.5 days, you'd be able to do the remaining turbine installations in about 200 days. If you stayed that 2 days per turbine, you'd be 265. And we expect about 33 of those loadouts at the port, each take about 4 days or 130 days in total.

So if you put all that together, 427 days, 200 to 265 days for turbine installation, 130 days for port turns, that leaves somewhere between 30 and 95 days for weather, maintenance and if you need more time for some of the more difficult locations for turbine installation. So I think that gives folks a little bit of a sense of sort of how much contingency is in the plan from a timing perspective, and that's what gives us that confidence. In addition to what Bob described, which is as we go through the various iterations of construction, it gets faster every single time.

Carly Davenport

Great. That's incredibly helpful context. And then the follow-up is just a housekeeping item. It looks like just for the 4Q drivers, O&M has shifted from being a drag to a help. Anything in particular that you flag as driving that? And is there any read-through on that into 2027 O&M trends with that in mind?

Steven Ridge

No, Carly, nothing specific. We obviously reevaluate those drivers quarter-by-quarter to reflect the latest perspective on the forecast. I would say we gave our guidance to be in the top half, and I think I put in my prepared remarks that, that includes some conservatism around November and December weather, as well as potential opportunities to derisk financial performance. So we're going to have that lever available to us as we go out to the last 2 months of the year to make sure we land solidly where our guidance is, updated guidance, but also take steps necessary to derisk future years.

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul Zimbardo with Jefferies.

Paul Zimbardo

I'm back. I think Anthony was ringing my doorbell, trick or treating.

Robert Blue

Good to hear from you, Paul.

Paul Zimbardo

And I appreciate there's a lot of math in that last answer. So hopefully, an easier one. Could you describe the nuclear upgrade opportunities, more so the regulated fleet, but also the unregulated asset? And just kind of where you are in exploring some of these potential expansions?

Robert Blue

Yes. Paul, good question. We've got some limited opportunities, we think, at Millstone, as we've discussed before. The regulated fleet, we've done a lot of upgrade work over the years. Our focus at the regulated fleet is the investments necessary for subsequent license renewal. We're extending the lives of those plants for another 20 years. So that's really where the work is going on right now. We always look for opportunities for updates where it makes sense we can do it safely within the appropriate safety margin.

Paul Zimbardo

Okay. Understand that. And then one last on kind of Virginia and the new IRP. I think you mentioned the 4 gigawatts and 2 gigawatts of incremental pull forward. Just -- if you could frame like what could that do to the capital plan, the rate base growth? Any kind of color you could provide there would be helpful.

Steven Ridge

Absolutely, Paul. So if you look at 2025's IRP relative to the latest IRP, it effectively through 2034 increases the battery on the system by about 4x. So for instance, in the 2025 IRP, 2030 through '34, battery was 850 megawatts. In the 2026 update, it's 3.3 gigawatts. And think about the capital cycle around that is about a 2-year time frame where you're spending that capital leading up to the actual COD.

So obviously, as we roll forward and pick up '31 in our 5-year plan, we'll be picking up 1 additional year of not just what the existing battery capital opportunity was, but actually this enhanced battery capital opportunity. And we framed that as every gigawatt being sort of $2.5 billion to $3 billion of opportunity.

Now keep in mind, some of the IRP would be under a PPA structure. Obviously, we don't -- wouldn't include that in our rate base, but the majority of it is under self-build, consistent with the Virginia Clean Economy Act. So I think as we think about roll forward, there's a very meaningful opportunity for capital enhancement in order to comply with the legislative and policy intent of the state.

Operator

We will take our next question from Nick Amicucci with Evercore ISI.

Nicholas Amicucci

Sorry, I did want to just kind of revert back to the merger quickly, if I could. There was one point of contention just within the SCC's staff testimony there. And I just wanted to kind of clarify it to understand it, I guess.

Just as we think about the ring-fencing and the bankruptcy remote special purpose vehicle, I guess, what are they really looking for there? Like, I understand kind of like the protection for Dominion. But just, I guess, how would -- how does that structure kind of -- like what should -- how should we think about that structure?

Robert Blue

Yes. Totally understand why you'd ask that question. But as I mentioned, we're working our way through the regulatory process now, which involves filing a rebuttal testimony on Monday and then a hearing just a few weeks away. So we're going to continue to present what we think is a very strong package through that regulatory process. But I can hope you understand why I wouldn't want to be getting into the details of that on the Friday before we file our rebuttal testimony.

Nicholas Amicucci

Very fair. Very fair. And then just wanted to think through to just the funding requirement. Like as we think about that as we move into 2027, just how much flexibility exists if we have some load kind of acceleration and a potential, like, delay in any closing?

Steven Ridge

Are you asking, Nick, about our -- sort of where our 2027 financing needs might be and how that could be impacted?

Nicholas Amicucci

Yes. If you think about it specifically on the equity issuance side.

Steven Ridge

Yes. So when we did our call in the fourth quarter, we gave a 5-year look. And we indicated that from -- at least from an equity perspective, it was very back-end loaded in sort of the last couple of years of our plan. I don't want to get out ahead of our sort of updates to the forecast. But generally speaking, we were seeing '27 and '28 as relatively lighter equity years. And I haven't seen anything that suggests that would be necessarily different.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session, so I'll turn it back to Bob Blue for closing remarks.

Robert Blue

Thanks, everybody, for taking the time to join the call today. Enjoy the rest of the day. Thanks.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.