凱悅 (H) 2026年第三季法說會：RevPAR、手續費成長與上調展望

重點摘要

• 凱悅酒店集團 (Hyatt Hotels Corporation, NYSE: H) 公布 2026 年第三季全系統可售客房平均收入 (RevPAR) 成長 7.2%，高於管理層預期。平均每日房價占增幅的近 80%。
• 總費用收入成長 15.2% 至 3.27 億美元，受惠於受託管理酒店的表現、新開業酒店、Playa 投資組合的管理協議以及非 RevPAR 費用的計入時間。
• 經資產出售調整後，調整後 EBITDA 年增超過 19%，反映出凱悅核心費用業務的成長。
• 籌備中客房數量達到創紀錄的 15.8 萬間，增長 12%。今年以來開工合約簽署量增長 70%，而動工量增長超過 40%。
• 管理層將全年全系統 RevPAR 成長預測上調至 5.0%-5.5%，並預計總費用收入為 13.2 億至 13.35 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 11.7 億至 12.0 億美元。
• 凱悅天地 (World of Hyatt) 會員人數突破 7,200 萬，成長 19%；同時，凱悅宣布與達美航空 (Delta Air Lines) 達成長期忠誠計劃合作，提供雙重積分累積機會。

核心財務數據

業務與營運表現

商務散客、團體和休閒旅遊的 RevPAR 均有所增長。商務散客 RevPAR 上升約 1%，在 9 月加速至 4% 以上。團體 RevPAR 成長 8%，部分得益於世界盃足球賽與猶太假期的時間點。休閒散客收入在奢華酒店帶動下增長約 10%。

凱悅表示，在平均房價指數增長的帶動下，今年至今市場佔有率提升了 100 個基點。凱悅天地會員人數成長 19% 至超過 7,200 萬人，而每年入住超過 100 晚合資格住宿的會員人數自 2022 年以來已增長近 40%。

各區域表現各有不同：

• 美國：RevPAR 成長 8.2%。精選服務酒店 RevPAR 上升 6.8%，反映商務散客需求增強及較低的基期。
• 不含大中華區的亞太地區：RevPAR 成長超過 10%，受惠於入境旅遊以及凱悅具有強大品牌影響力市場的需求。
• 大中華區：RevPAR 增長 2.1%，由休閒需求與平均房價成長所驅動。
• 歐洲：受國內休閒及國際入境需求帶動，RevPAR 增長 4.3%。
• 中東：RevPAR 下降 3%，主因國內旅遊部分抵銷了國際入境旅遊 40% 的下滑。
• 不含美國的美洲地區：在加勒比海渡假村引領下，RevPAR 成長 9.2%。
• 全包式渡假村投資組合：淨套餐 RevPAR 下降 2.5%。坎昆下降超過 10%，儘管凱悅表示其坎昆渡假村今年至今的市場佔有率提升了 400 個基點。

分銷業務部門的調整後 EBITDA 下降且低於管理層預期。凱悅將此疲軟歸因於墨西哥需求放緩、航班運力減少以及對四星級物業的需求下降。

截至本季末，凱悅在建/籌備中項目約有 15.8 萬間客房。美國 Essentials 品牌新簽合約中，有超過半數位於凱悅尚未進駐的新市場。公司預計 2026 年開業的新酒店中將有超過半數集中在第四季，包含重新開業、多物業品牌轉換及戰略合作夥伴的加盟。

管理層財務預測

管理層預計第四季美國 RevPAR 成長將有所放緩，主因基期較高及 11 月的中期選舉。第四季美國全服務酒店團體預訂進度年增中單位數，而亞太地區預計到年底前仍將保持強勁。

對於 2027 年初期，管理層形容預訂趨勢令人鼓舞。美洲全包式渡假村第一季預訂量年增高單位數，2027 年企業團體預訂進度成長近 10%。若扣除世界盃足球賽相關業務，2027 年整體團體預訂進度落在中單位數。

凱悅還重申了投資人日 (Investor Day) 所提出的目標，即 2026 至 2028 年期間淨客房數成長率為 6%-8%。管理層目前預計 2027 年第一季客房新增數年增率將落在 6%-7% 區間，包括品牌轉換與投資組合交易可能的延續效應。

風險與關注事項

• 與凱悅最初的第四季預測相比，墨西哥和中東地區的疲軟預計將使全年費用收入減少約 3,000 萬美元。若計入分銷業務，管理層估計對調整後 EBITDA 的總影響為 6,000 萬美元。
• 在地緣政治衝突以及國際入境旅遊疲軟的情況下，管理層預計中東地區將對全年費用收入造成約 1,000 萬美元的影響。
• 墨西哥預計將使年度費用收入減少約 2,000 萬美元，約占凱悅總費用收入的 1.5%。坎昆的需求和航班運力改善速度慢於管理層預期。
• 牙買加酒店停業造成了 1,500 萬美元的逆風。管理層目前估計將在 2027 年第一季末或第二季初重新開業。
• 分銷業務仍容易受到航班運力與四星級客戶消費支出的影響。管理層預計隨著這些條件改善，業務僅會漸進式復甦。
• 第四季部分酒店的開業取決於最終階段的重新開業、品牌轉換以及戰略合作夥伴加盟，這些項目的完成時間比最初預期的要長。

分析師問答亮點

2027 年需求展望：管理層表示高端休閒需求依然強勁，而企業團體預訂則提供額外支撐。坎昆的航班運力正在改善，牙買加的航線運力正在復甦，多明尼加共和國持續展現強勁需求。正式的 2027 年財務預測將隨第四季財報一同公布。

品牌轉換執行力與 AI：凱悅正利用人工智慧將品牌轉換的物業改善計劃 (PIP) 準備時間從數週縮短至一天。管理層還在開發一個涵蓋提案洽談到酒店營運爬升的端到端 AI 平台，目標是在 2027 年第一季實質完成。

代理式預訂：管理層表示，透過大語言模型平台完成的預訂量目前仍然極少，但預計代理式預訂將在未來幾年成為一個重要的分銷管道。凱悅計畫維持在多個平台上的存在感，並致力於讓其奢華、生活時尚、渡假村及全服務品牌具備更清晰的定位與易搜尋性。

中高檔市場擴展：凱悅在 Studios Select、Hyatt Studios、Hyatt Select 以及 Unscripted by Hyatt 等品牌中，已有超過 150 家籌備中酒店。簽約項目中有超過半數位於凱悅尚未進駐的新市場。管理層表示，整體籌備項目預計的每間客房費用收入仍高於目前營運中投資組合的水平。

開發資金：管理層預計未來三至四年關鍵資金 (key-money) 支出將維持在每年約 1.5 億至 1.7 億美元之間，儘管金額可能會有所波動。凱悅也在採用替代資本結構，旨在支持開發的同時保留資本回報。

與達美航空合作：計畫中的合作關係將允許會員在達美航空和凱悅的活動中交叉累積點數。管理層表示兩家公司的高端客戶群體有顯著重疊，並預計在第四季財報公布時提供更多細節。

完整法說會逐字稿

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Hyatt's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Ryan Nuckols, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy. Please go ahead.

Ryan Nuckols

Thank you, and welcome to Hyatt's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joan Bottarini, Hyatt's Chief Financial Officer.

Before we start, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today will include forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our annual report on Form 10-K quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. These risks could cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued today, along with the cod will not be updated as actual events unfold.

In addition, you can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in today's remarks under the Financial section of our Investor Relations website and in this morning's earnings release. An archive of this call will be available on our website for 90 days. Additionally, we posted an investor presentation on our Investor Relations website this morning containing supplemental information.

Please note, unless otherwise stated, references to occupancy, average daily rate and RevPAR reflect comparable system-wide hotels on a constant currency basis and closed hotels in Jamaica are excluded from comparable metrics in 2026. Percentage changes disclosed during the call are on a year-over-year basis unless otherwise noted.

With that, I will turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Hoplamazian

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. I'm extremely proud of our teams and the exceptional results they helped deliver in the third quarter. High continues to demonstrate the strength of our asset-light business model and our insights-led brand-focused strategy supported by the talent and commitment of our colleagues. Our teams are focused on delivering on-property experiences that truly resonate with our guests, deepen loyalty, drive durable fee growth, increase free cash flow and generate attractive long-term returns.

Our third quarter results provide another compelling example of our strategy in action. We delivered strong RevPAR, fee and adjusted EBITDA growth, expanded World of Hyatt membership and grew our development pipeline to record levels even as certain subregions experienced temporary softness in demand. Our diversified global portfolio on high-end experience-focused travelers and strong commercial platform continue to drive performance and strengthen Hyatt's position as a preferred choice among guests, owners and developers.

Together, these advantages support high-quality operational execution and growth, driving higher fee earnings and free cash flow.

Turning to our operating results. Third quarter system-wide RevPAR grew 7.2%, exceeding our expectations. Performance was driven by durable from high-end travelers and continued strength across our luxury portfolio with some benefit from the FIFA World Cup in July and the timing of the Jewish holidays in September. RevPAR growth in the United States also exceeded our expectations, while most international markets delivered strong growth. Average rates grew in all brand categories, driving nearly 80% of our RevPAR growth. Our focus on driving high-quality RevPAR growth is intentional as it supports higher cash flow for owners, and it also results in higher fees and fees per room for Hyatt.

RevPAR increased across all customer segments, business group and especially leisure travel. Year-to-date, we have gained 100 basis points of market share across our portfolio driven by gains in average rate index, highlighting that our strong RevPAR gains are much more than just favorable industry trends.

Together, these results highlight the benefits of Hyatt's differentiated strategy premium brands that resonate with travelers and win in their competitive set, supported by a commercial engine that drives superior results for our owners. Business transient RevPAR grew approximately 1% during the quarter with growth accelerating to more than 4% in September, a sign of renewed momentum after the summer with strong results in our select service brands in the U.S. Group RevPAR increased a strong 8% in the quarter compared to last year, with some of that growth coming from the FIFA World Cup and the shift in the timing of the Jewish holidays. The strength and resilience of the leisure traveler drove leisure transient rev growth of approximately 10%, once again led by our luxury hotels.

Demand for high-quality experiences remained strong, with performance at our resorts in the Americas, offsetting temporarily softer demand at our all-inclusive resorts in Cancun. Looking ahead, we see continued momentum across all customer segments, and the pickup in bookings in the Cancun is very encouraging. Worldapy continues to fuel increased performance across our brands and continues to grow at an exceptional rate with more than 72 million members, up 19% from a year ago. But it is not just about scale.

World of Hide is central to our insights-led and brand-focused approach and its continued growth reflects the appeal of our brand and the value the program delivers to members and ultimately, to owners. The way we connect and engage with our members differentiate their experience and provide us with valuable insights into what matters most throughout their travel journey. We see this reflected through the deeper and more frequent engagement with our members. Since 2022, we have seen members with over 100 qualifying stays per year, increased by nearly 40%. Our recently announced long-term loyalty collaboration with Delta Airlines is a great example of connecting with our members beyond their hotel stay experience. Our collaboration brings together 2 brands with a shared commitment to thoughtful premium experiences that put members first.

Together, Delta and Hyatt aim to make travel more connected and rewarding through exclusive benefits and experiences that extend throughout their travel journey. We're excited about this collaboration and look forward to sharing more as the program develops. Together, our differentiated brands, commercial platform and a growing base of highly engaged world of pipe members strengthen our value proposition for guests, owners and developers. This drives demand for hotels and supports attractive owner returns, underpinning our quality growth strategy.

Hyatt value proposition continues to resonate with owners and developers as reflected in our exceptionally strong development activity during the third quarter. We ended the quarter with a record development pipeline of approximately 158,000 rooms, up 12% from a year ago. Year-to-date, we have signed 70% more deals compared to last year, and our construction starts are up over 40%. The performance of our luxury lifestyle and inclusive collection brands continue to generate strong owner interest and signings, while our Essentials brands are building continued momentum and expanding Hyatt's reach.

In fact, during the quarter, over half of the signings for our Essentials brands in the United States where in markets new to Hyatt. Third quarter net rooms growth was 3.9%, excluding rooms from the Playa Hotels acquisition that were removed from Hyatt's room count in the fourth quarter of 2025. Notable openings included the Thomson Savia, our second Thompson Hotels property in Spain and High Vivid Ponicana. Our expansion into upper midscale continues to gain momentum with 14 hotel ibis in this segment during the quarter. As we look ahead, we expect over half of our openings for the year to occur in the fourth quarter. Approximately 2/3 of our anticipated fourth quarter openings are hotels in the final stages of reopening. The remainder of our anticipated growth is largely comprised of multi-property conversions that, in some cases, have taken longer to finalize than anticipated and strategic partner hotel additions.

We built a strong and rapidly expanding international pipeline that we believe will deliver accretive fees per room. We also see significant opportunities to expand our brand presence in the United States. Together, these opportunities give me confidence in our ability to deliver the net rooms growth targets and most importantly, the fee growth that we outlined at our Investor Day in May. Now turning to transactions. We continue to make progress to sell the Hyatt Grand Central New York and are also advancing discussions to sell several additional properties confidence in our ability to deliver the net rooms growth targets and most importantly, the fee growth that we outlined at our Investor Day in May. Now turning to transactions. We continue to make progress to sell the Hyatt Grand Central New York and are also advancing discussions to sell several additional properties confidence in our ability to deliver the net rooms growth targets and most importantly, the fee growth that we outlined at our Investor Day in May.

Now turning to transactions. We continue to make progress to sell the Hyatt Grand Central New York and are also advancing discussions to sell several additional properties. We will continue to provide updates as we make progress on these sales. Throughout these sales, our disciplined approach remains consistent with our track record of pursuing transactions that achieve attractive values while securing long-term management or franchise agreements, supporting continued fee growth and shareholder value. We continue to sharpen our brand focus, invest in our talent and leverage technology to deliver high-quality experiences and operate more effectively.

The appointment of Amar Lalvani as Hyatt's first Chief Creative Officer reflects that commitment. He's helping bring our brand strategy to life across the company and equipping colleagues to deliver it. We believe these capabilities strengthen Hyatt's competitive advantages and support long-term value creation. As we shared at Investor Day, we have built a powerful flywheel that creates value for guests, owners, colleagues and shareholders. Our third quarter results reinforce the strength of our strategy and our confidence in Hyatt's long-term potential.

Our opportunity is reflected in the strong development pipeline and the significant activity behind it. But this is not about growth for the sake of growth. We are and will remain intentional about where and how we grow, focusing on openings that strengthen our network, further drive owner returns that will result in high-quality, durable and compounding fee growth into the future.

I'll now turn the call over to Joan to provide more details on the quarter. Joan, over to you.

Joan Bottarini

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results provide another proof point of the strength of premium leisure travel globally and healthy group demand. As Mark mentioned, RevPAR exceeded our expectations, increasing 7.2% compared to last year, driven by resilient demand from premium travelers and incremental demand from the FIFA World Cup. In the United States, RevPAR increased a strong 8.2% compared to last year, driven by robust leisure travel and healthy group demand with the FIFA World Cup contributing approximately 50 basis points to growth.

Our select service hotels also performed well with RevPAR increasing 6.8%, reflecting strong business transient demand and easier comparisons to last year. Outside the United States, RevPAR increased nearly 6% in the third quarter. Outbound travel from the U.S. to our international hotels was up over 10%, reflecting robust international travel demand and continued strength in the higher-end U.S. traveler. Asia Pacific, excluding Greater China, delivered robust RevPAR growth of more than 10%, driven by healthy inbound travel and demand in key markets where Hyatt has strong brand representation.

Greater China RevPAR increased 2.1% compared to last year, supported by leisure transient demand and strong average rate growth. Europe generated RevPAR growth of 4.3%, driven by healthy domestic leisure demand and continuing growth of international inbound travel. In the Middle East, RevPAR declined by only 3% compared to last year as strong domestic travel helped offset a 40% decline in international inbound travel. In the Americas, excluding the United States, RevPAR increased 9.2%, benefiting from strong resort performance in the Caribbean, highlighting the exceptionally strong demand for high-end leisure travel experiences. Net package RevPAR in our all-inclusive portfolio declined only 2.5% compared to last year. Strong demand for travel in the Caribbean and other parts of Mexico largely offset the more than 10% decline in Cancun. Despite these demand pressures, I'm very pleased to share that our all-inclusive resorts in Cancun have gained 400 basis points of market share this year, reflecting the strength of our brands in the markets in which we operate. Turning to our financial results.

Our core fee business continued to perform well, supported by strong top line performance, healthy hotel level profitability, increasing scale and the quality of our portfolio. Gross fees increased 15.2% to $327 million, ahead of our expectations, driven by strong performance across our managed portfolio, contributions from newly opened hotels, the new management agreements from the Playa portfolio and the quarterly timing of non-RevPAR fees. Our strong fee growth highlights the benefits of our broad, diversified and differentiated portfolio and our ability to deliver growth even as certain geographies face demand pressure. Distribution segment adjusted EBITDA declined compared to last year and was below our expectations as softer demand in Mexico and the reduction in flight capacity was more pronounced than anticipated.

Results continue to be impacted by lower demand for 4-star properties, and we expect a gradual recovery when flight capacity increases and travel spending improves among this consumer segment. Overall, third quarter adjusted EBITDA was up over 19% year-over-year, adjusted for asset sales, reflecting the strength of our core fee business. As of September 30, we had total liquidity of approximately $1.8 billion, including $1.3 billion of available capacity on our revolving credit facility.

During the quarter, we also returned approximately $161 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, bringing our year-to-date returns to $336 million. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.4 billion remaining under our share repurchase authorization. Our balance sheet is strong, and we remain committed to maintaining our investment-grade profile.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2026, while travel demand continues to vary across regions, we remain confident in our full year outlook, supported by the strength of our brands. Let me start with the 2 regions that are experiencing demand pressure this year. In the Middle East, while RevPAR declined by only 3% in the third quarter, we expect fourth quarter performance to be below those levels due to the seasonality of the business and the ongoing geopolitical conflict. We continue to anticipate an approximate $10 million impact to full year fees.

In Mexico, booking trends at our all-inclusive resorts are improving sequentially, but have not recovered to the extent we expected for the fourth quarter. Despite the headwinds in Mexico throughout the year, our teams have delivered exceptional results, managing to mitigate the impact to a $20 million decline in fees for the year, which equates to about 1.5% of our total annual gross fees.

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2027, forward booking trends are encouraging with first quarter bookings at our Americas all-inclusive resorts up in the high single digits and air capacity showing signs of improvement from lower levels. The continued strength of our core business reinforces our confidence in its underlying fundamentals even as we navigate temporary regional challenges. In the United States, forward booking trends remain strong for the balance of 2026 with fourth quarter group pace for our U.S. full-service hotels up in the mid-single digits.

We expect fourth quarter U.S. RevPAR growth to moderate relative to the second and third quarters, reflecting more difficult year-over-year comparisons and the impact of the November midterm elections. Outside the United States, we expect continued strong performance in Asia Pacific through the balance of 2026. Reflecting these trends, we are increasing our full year system-wide RevPAR growth outlook to between 5% and 5.5%. We now expect full year RevPAR growth in the United States of between 5% and 6%.

We expect RevPAR growth in international markets to be slightly lower than the United States for the full year. We continue to expect full year net rooms growth of approximately 6% with momentum in conversions, including within our new brands, driving another year of strong organic growth. As Mark mentioned earlier, we expect more than half of our openings for the year to occur in the fourth quarter. The strong development activity we are seeing reinforces our confidence in achieving the long-term growth expectations that we laid out at our Investor Day. We expect full year gross fees to grow between 10% to 11% in the range of $1.32 billion to $1.335 billion, reflecting continued growth across our asset-light platform. Importantly, we are delivering this strong growth despite the temporary hotel closures in Jamaica and softer demand in Mexico and the Middle East, reinforcing my confidence in the strength of our fee business and long-term fee growth.

We expect our full year adjusted EBITDA to grow at a strong rate of 14% to 17% in the range of $1.17 billion to $1.20 billion. This outlook reflects strong fee performance, slightly lower adjusted G&A and approximately $30 million year-over-year decline in our distribution segment compared to 2025. We are maintaining our adjusted free cash flow outlook for the full year in the range of $580 million to $630 million, an increase of between 20% to 30% and adjusted EBITDA to adjusted free cash flow conversion of at least 50%.

Finally, we are raising our full year outlook for capital returns to shareholders to between $375 million and $425 million. In closing, our third quarter results demonstrate the continued strength of Hyatt's asset-light earnings model. As we highlighted during Investor Day, our strategy is designed to generate high-quality, durable fee growth and increasing cash flow over time, and our results this quarter are another demonstration of the successful execution of our strategy.

This concludes our prepared remarks, and we're now pleased to answer your questions.

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

分析師問答

Conor Cunningham

Just you have a competitor out there that's talking about 3% to 4% RevPAR growth next year. Joan, you just listed a lot of headwinds that you had this year that shouldn't necessarily repeat next year. So just trying to understand the context of how you view RevPAR or RevPAR right now, just given where you sit on the demand commentary. And then maybe if I could just sneak a little on top of that, just bringing it back to fees, like what gives you confidence in the NUG performance next year? I mean, obviously, this year has been a little lumpy. So just any thoughts on the 6% to 8% you laid out at Investor Day would be helpful.

Joan Bottarini

Sure. Maybe I'll just start on 2027. We're in the middle of our planning process, and we will absolutely update you at Q4 with more specifics around guidance for 2027. But right now, it's setting up really nicely. Trends are strong across leisure, as we mentioned many times in our prepared remarks, and we have every reason to believe that those will continue. As we're looking into Q4, we're seeing that continue into Q4. So expect that to continue into the first part and throughout 2027. Group is also setting up nicely for next year. We are lapping some outsized group performance from the World Cup. But even despite that, we've got good group pace on the books for next year. And we also have the disruptions from this year, which are temporary, are going to help us next year as we go into -- early in the first part of the year, we already mentioned that the pace into our all-inclusive segment is up in the high single digits -- so as we think about leisure, we've got visibility into those RevPAR -- net package RevPAR numbers that they will be improving.

So we feel good about next year's setup, and there's several tailwinds that are going to help us into next year, including, I'll just mention the hotels reopening in Jamaica as well. So there's several items, and we'll unpack all of that for you in the fourth quarter when we give guidance for next year. And that also just reaffirms what we said at Investor Day as far as our expectations around RevPAR growth and fee growth going into next year. And so maybe Mark will cover NRG.

Mark Hoplamazian

Yes. I'll just add one thing to what Joe just said to support and substantiate the pace that we see in our all-inclusive business Lift airlift into Cancun is improving as we speak serially. And we see that continuing into planned schedule carrier activity in the first quarter and second quarter of next year. Jamaica is significant growth in Airlift. Of course, the year-over-year numbers are stratospheric because they got cut back so severely in '26. But it is a restoration -- a very quick ramp to restoration of Lift into Jamaica. And the Dominican Republic, which has had an absolutely stellar year is holding its own with respect to Airlift, so should be able to support continued strong demand there.

The second dimension of this that I just wanted to touch on, which is really meaningful for us is that if you look at the component pieces of group, by far, the largest growth is coming from corporates. And if we look into what corporate looks like for the full year this year, it looks like it could be up in the range of 7% or thereabouts. And if you look into next year, corporate pace is up almost 10%. Now corporate makes. First of all, we serve a relatively higher rated corporate base. And secondly, when corporate bookings are that strong, other revenue streams, catering, banqueting, F&B come along with it. So that's probably the thing that I'm tracking the closest. This year, of course, we had a massive growth in sports and SMERF business that had to do with FIFA. But even if you sort of ignore the FIFA impact there, the corporate forward bookings look really strong.

As to NRG, there's no question that we expect NRG to be more even over the course of the year in '27. We have -- if you just look at the pipeline itself without any -- without regard to any now unforeseen in the year for the year opportunities that come up between now and the end of the year or into the first quarter, we will be solidly in above 6% in the 6% to 7% range in the first quarter is our current outlook with respect to openings year-over-year increase. So I think we're on our way back to restoring a more regular pace. You heard that the increase in the number of pipeline hotels under construction is up 40%. That's contributing to that. But we also are expecting some carryover of some of the portfolio deals and other conversions that we are working on today into the first quarter. We still stand by our annual outlook for '26. It just means that we may end up starting with an extra boost from early openings in '27. So that's our outlook in the near term for NRG. And firmly, I just reaffirm what we said at Investor Day for the '26 to '28 time period, we still feel very confident about 6% to 8%.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays.

Brandt Montour

Maybe just following on that, Mark, I want you -- I want to hear from you regarding the new development solutions that you rolled out in early October relating to conversions. What sort of prompted that? How sort of linked was that to some of the -- or I guess, the sort of lowered revision on NRG last quarter. Do you think that, that sort of improved any sort of slowdown or sort of slow steps that you had in the process in terms of how we should think about next year?

Mark Hoplamazian

Yes. I think there are several things that have happened over the course of this year. It's not just that which has happened in the last month or 2. But a couple of things. First, the utilization of AI to facilitate and accelerate how we approach property improvement plans for conversions. The turnaround time has been reduced from several weeks to a day. And that's already paid dividends in Asia Pacific, which is where -- that's the region that sort of led the way in terms of honing the best approach to making sure that we're taking structural considerations into account plus brand standards and brand codes. So we feel like we've got an extra arrow in the quiver at the moment to be able to go faster, be more definitive and even assist our developers in costing what the conversions might cost.

Secondly, we've been working on and we still -- we continue to work on an end-to-end AI platform from the time that a deal is pitched through the time that the hotel is ramped. So it's a full continuum. I'm not going to go into further details because of competitive reasons, but we are starting to see some real benefits from that. I think the -- some of the time lines that it has taken in the past, especially in and around systems conversions require. There's the old adage if you can't untie the Gordian Knot, you sometimes have to cut it. Well, we're cutting it because going in sort of traditional ways to reduce cycle time for systems conversion is painful and arduous. So we are actually developing some tools to be able to actually work around that and be able to make conversions -- have conversions go live faster and ramp the hotel faster by virtue of plugging in World of Hyatt.

So those are the kinds of changes. I believe that we will be largely complete with the end-to-end product that we are working on now in the first quarter of next year. And I think it will continue to benefit us because conversions remain a significant proportion of our total NR.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

Shaun Kelley

I think you tackled a lot of what we had to ask, Mark, it might be helpful. We've seen a lot of developments on the Agentic AI front in the last few months, specifically really since early September. And I know you are having a lot of conversations. You're pretty thoughtful on this subject. So just would love your view on how do agents specifically impact a little bit the booking journey? And how is Hyatt able to sort of directly steer those agents to your direct channels as opposed to other aggregators that are out there? What are you kind of seeing on that distribution funnel?

Mark Hoplamazian

Yes. So thank you, Shaun. First, I would say that just to level set, the actual bookings that are being completed that originate through LLM platforms is very, very small. So we are still early, early in the days of direct Agentic booking. It's coming, and it will grow fast. I mean I think the pace of growth in AI-related tools and technology has proven to be extremely high. And I think we will see the same thing in Agentic distribution. We are absolutely focused on being available in the right ways to all purveyors. So across Gemini, OpenAI, Instinct Me, you name it, we will have presence. we are going to remain relatively agnostic. When I say relatively, I don't mean we have some biases. I am saying that the capabilities within these LLM frames are different. They're not all the same, and they don't all present your product the same way.

Our learnings from being very early in representing Hyatt directly in the apps that you can find through ChatGPT's platform have taught us a lot. We have a much better handle on the people who are coming through those channels. They are younger and spending a lot more on travel. But the booking -- actually, the booking activity where it terminates or concludes rather in that environment is still very low. So I would say I'm a believer that Agentic Booking will be a significant portion of our total distribution picture. And over the next couple of years, I think we'll see that expand. The key is that our strategy is really focused on elevating our brands and being brand focused. And the clearer and sharper you can define your brands and the experiences that people can expect to have and also the total experience with respect to the booking, prebooking into stay and post stay makes it clear when a personal agent is searching for a particular trip.

So we believe that for our clientele, I would not say that this matters in economy, for example, our budget hotels. It matters a lot in resorts. It matters a lot in luxury and lifestyle. It matters a lot in some full-service hotels. So I would say in the categories that we play in that is the bulk of our system, it matters a lot. And that's why we are so hyper focused on really elevating our brands and making them sharper, more defined, more findable and more precise. And so we are actively engaged. By the way, I think you'll hear this from everybody. This is not the time to sort of narrow the focus. It's a time to experiment and continuously test and learn, and that's what we're doing.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Chaiken with Mizuho.

Benjamin Chaiken

Yes, we've covered a lot of important topics. Just one for me. There was a number of impacts this year. Joan, you alluded to this, and maybe we can take it offline if you prefer. But to the extent we can kind of quickly review the impacts in '26 as they sound like most, if not all, will help in '27. I believe, Joan, you said $20 million Mexico impact, $10 million from Middle East. I guess, was that the total impact? Or is that strictly within the kind of managed and franchised hotel business as opposed to destination? And then part 2, could you remind us the total Jamaica impact in round numbers and then as well as the destination business? And if I'm missing anything else.

Joan Bottarini

Sure. So I'll just reiterate for you, Ben, our outlook that we have, the 10% to 11% of fee growth for the full year and the 14% to 17% of EBITDA growth for the full year, which has been raised in this release this morning, reflects the impacts that we've experienced across the course of the year. So really strong fees and EBITDA. And the -- with respect to your question, just to summarize it for you, the fee impacts in Mexico and the Middle East for the year relative to our Q4 original guidance is about $30 million. and that's just slightly higher in our latest outlook relative to our Q2 outlook for Mexico. So $30 million in total for the year, embedded within our full year guidance for fees, again, that 10% to 11%.

So stronger RevPAR that we've been experiencing, stronger demand, including significant rates across the world has offset that $30 million. For EBITDA, the impact when you include the fees plus the distribution business, it's a total of $60 million. So that is just wrapping it up into the aggregate numbers, again, from the beginning of the year until now. And we are remaining with this 14% to 17% EBITDA growth outlook, which is very, very strong and very consistent with our algorithms embedded within with respect to RevPAR growth and the flow-through. So very good results, and that's the summary of the impact for the year.

Again, temporarily, we believe these are temporary as we've seen now improving sequential as the dynamics that have impacted us, particularly in Mexico, which is the vast majority of that number, we're seeing improve. And that is a really good sign for us as we look ahead into 2027. For Jamaica, we announced that in our original guidance, which was a $15 million headwind. As we look ahead into next year, they -- our owners are very focused on opening up these hotels. So our current estimate right now is late Q1, early Q2 for reopening of those hotels in Jamaica. So we'll get some of that tailwind into next year and then into 2028 as well.

Mark Hoplamazian

So Ben, I think, yes. I would just add one thing, and that is that we're tracking, obviously, how things are starting off in the fourth quarter. There are 2 areas that I just wanted to make mention of in passing. One is there's been a lot of disruption on the streets in France. That has not had an impact on our business to date. We're running ahead of where we thought we would be and pace for the quarter looks good. Actually, group pace has actually increased. And then the U.S. continues to hold up very well. 2 areas, business transient within our upscale hotels and luxury leisure which has just remained the juggernaut of growth for us and great stability, durability of demand.

So those are the things that are encouraging us to set up well going into next year. I think -- so Joan covered it completely, and that's how we have mapped out the year to date. I guess what I would say is while I'm not -- we are not taking any early indicators in October to the bank at this point because we shouldn't. The world is a very volatile place, and we have midterms coming up. One thing we can say is that things are not falling off falling through cracks are falling off the table at this point.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

David Katz

You've covered a ton of territory. I wanted to ask about the growth for Hyatt into the more moderate or limited service areas of the business. Understanding the strategic importance of having that as part of your portfolio, what I observe is that many of the other larger hotel platforms are trying to increase the economic intensity, right, of fees per room of each new unit, right, added to NUG. And on the surface, that may appear to decrease in economic intensity. But I presume that it has other economic benefits across the entirety of the platform that you consider, not just necessarily each contract on the surface of it. Can you maybe help us just understand those economic benefits and how that adds to the totality of Hyatt, which is such a strongly growing enterprise?

Mark Hoplamazian

Absolutely. Thanks, David, for the question. First, across the new upper mid-scale brands that we have launched, Studios Select, Hyatt Studios, Hyatt Select and Unscripted by Hyatt. We have currently 150 -- over 150 hotels in the pipeline. And the signings that we have made, over half of the signings are in brand-new markets to Hyatt. -- where we literally have 0 representation whatsoever. We did an enormous amount of research in 2023 and '24, looking at travel patterns for our members, and we discovered exactly where they -- when they were staying out of system, where they were staying in which markets they were staying out of system, and we looked and evaluated those markets where our competitors had product in the mid-scale or upper mid-scale and we didn't. We were absent. And so that's been our target, and we are fulfilling that as we speak.

I think it's something like close to 70% of our openings in these brands have been in markets that we had identified as part of that research. So we are absolutely on strategy for covering new markets where our members were already traveling, but staying outside of our system. And so the purpose of it is to do -- is twofold. One, to make sure that Hyatt in a very high-quality representation because we want studios and -- he -- Hyatt Studios H Select and unscripted by Hyatt to be at the high end of their competitive sets. We want them to have a quality experience in the upper mid-scale in those markets that can be affordable for developers to build and very profitable for them, but also create a good guest experience for our guests. And that so far is proving to be true. It is, by definition, true that when you have a hotel that's got a leading rate of $100 as opposed to $20 your total fee base and the room size is much smaller, the fee base is going to be lower.

So that's just math. It is not an acute issue right now, meaning we don't expect -- as we forecast and look at our total pipeline, including these 150 hotels, our fees per key in the pipeline is actually accretive. It's higher than our current fees per key in our open and operating hotels. So it will take years for that to start to show up in terms of our total mix because the hotels that we are opening in the full-service luxury and resort areas are very high rated and our fee base continues to grow at a pretty good pace.

So I'm not worried about it from a system perspective and you shouldn't be either. I think the key is being present where our travelers are traveling and being there with a high-quality representation. That was the rationale. That is what we're fulfilling right now. It is true that new construction starts in the U.S. have been low. That's partly why you see great results across pretty much all chain scales right now. And I think that, that will -- yes, and borrowing costs have gone up, but I think that more and more developers will understand that in either new markets for Hyatt or markets in which we are very underrepresented, there are new opportunities to still earn a great return because underlying performance is so high, and it really helps our network effects significantly.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth

I was hoping you could expand a little bit on the recent announcement with Delta this past quarter. Any unique aspects of that partnership maybe versus past relationships? And what future steps or opportunities in how you might work together?

Mark Hoplamazian

Yes. The one thing I can say is what we've already announced, and that is that the arrangement that we've made is a dual earning relationship. So when you fly Delta or stay at Hyatt, you earn on both sides. That was a feature that is new to our partnerships, our airline partnership that wasn't true in our prior one in recent years. So that's the one attribute that we did talk about. We will tell you a lot more in the first quarter. So when we announce fourth quarter earnings, we will unpack how we are approaching this partnership. I would say that the teams are working extraordinarily well together. The customer base overlap is -- that is the demographic overlap between our core customer base is very high, but the member opportunity in terms of expanding member utilization of -- Hyatt member utilization of Delta and Delta SkyMile participants utilization of Hyatt, both have big opportunities.

That's why both companies saw there to be significant opportunity for us to actually make us a very strong win-win situation. And it's really important to us as we continue to hyperfocus on elevating our brands. that we really continuously deepen our relationship with a premium customer, with a high household income customer. And that's what we feel like we are gaining with the partnership with Delta.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs.

Elizabeth Dove

Could you maybe just talk about generally what you're seeing in the environment for key money overall? I guess in the near term, I think you raised EBITDA but lowered CapEx guidance and maintained free cash flow. So I wasn't sure if that was kind of related to key money or something else, but curious just kind of over the long term as well.

Mark Hoplamazian

Yes. First of all, key money is actually a reduction of free cash flow. So it's included in how we report free cash flow. I don't know how other companies do it, but that's how we report. The fact is that there's a lot of key money flying around development deals these days. I think the intensity of it varies by type of project or chain scale. I think the thing that we have focused on most of all is being super clear and quite deliberate and precise about what the actual needs are for a developer. And oftentimes, what happens is the allure of an upfront check tends to take hold in some cases. But when you actually think about it, it's actually a very small proportion of the total earnings that the owner/developer can expect over a 20-year lifetime of a contract.

And so in a number of cases, in the last quarter, and I'm close to this because I've been directly engaged in several of these conversations with developers, the dialogue has been, look, you're presenting us with an ask with respect to a higher amount of key money. We're presenting you with a higher expected return over the next 20 years. And by the way, your actual need is not a onetime injection at the beginning. It's actually a piece of capital in your cap stack that you can benefit from and actually get -- still maintain your ability to do the transaction.

And what we get is a return of capital. So we've been doing more by way of, I would say, innovative ways to support development that are not necessarily as key money intensive. They still are capital -- they still deploy capital, but maybe in a different way. And so we have, I guess, both the track record and capability internally to do it. And so that's what we've been practicing. We actually laid out that we would be spending $150 million to $170 million a year in key money. And I expect that over the next 3 to 4 years, that number will be in and around that range. It might be higher in 1 year and lower in another year. But my guess is that, that range is still a good range for you to be thinking about as you look into the future.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rose Smedes with Citi.

Bennett Rose

It's Smedes. I wanted to ask you just 2 quick ones. I guess the first one, just going back to Mexico for a moment. You said that it was weaker than expected than your expectations in the third quarter. And I was just wondering what sort of points were you looking at going into the third quarter that turned out to be maybe not so predictive or accurate? And just kind of what gives you confidence now that we're in the fourth quarter that we're not just seeing sort of another head fake or maybe there's something competitive going on the ground in Cancun that's not necessarily related to the political disruption we saw earlier this year?

Joan Bottarini

Yes, Smedes, we actually saw some demand weakness in September, particularly in the third quarter. So it was slightly worse than our expectations. And we actually thought that flight capacity would be improving as we were looking at this Q2. It's been a little slower, but we're seeing it sequentially improve, as both Mark and I mentioned. So as we head into Q4 and the first quarter, second quarter of next year, it's sequentially improving. My comment about market share in my prepared remarks is really remarkable.

And our owners are pleased despite what's happening in the competitive environment that we are delivering and our commercial and operation teams are delivering market share gains. And that's what we need to be doing in this environment. And as we see the recovery continue from here, we'll be able to just drive more top line and cash flow for owners into the future. the Hyatt.

Mark Hoplamazian

I think it's -- if you think about the level of disruption in the Riviera Maya area because that's really where it's been concentrated. The Pacific Coast of Mexico, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, they've been fine. In fact, they've been -- Dominican Republic has had probably its best year ever. So yes, it's significant. It's a bit over 1/3 of our total all-inclusive business. But all in all, if you think about the severity of the disruption to gain 400 basis points of market share and only have a fee degradation of 1.5% of our total fee base. I think, just demonstrates that the diversity even within our inclusive business, let alone our total business is proving that we are not highly subject to mass volatility as a result of what's going on in Mexico in a given area.

Joan mentioned, in case you didn't pick this up, it's an extraordinary number. Americas ex U.S. is up 9% in the third quarter. That's extraordinary. A lot of that is in the Caribbean in our other resorts. So all I'm saying is that the health of the luxury leisure traveler is very, very good. And we are capturing that in different ways. And we do have some headwinds that are specific, and part of that has to do with the Sargassum, the seaweed problem that abates. It's seasonal.

So the first and second quarter are the best times, and they are also the biggest quarters for us in terms of total revenue. The times that it gets worse are in the weaker third quarter. So that's some more color. I would say what Joan mentioned in passing is absolutely true. We did expect lift to improve more than it actually did into Cancun in the third quarter, especially in September, and that did not come through. So those -- that hopefully rounds out and contextualizes for you how we see our business there.

Bennett Rose

It does. I appreciate that. And then I just wanted to ask you quickly, you mentioned what looks like a really good pace of corporate group for '27. What sort of percentage is corporate group of your overall kind of group segment? Corporate Yes. Corporate usually is about -- it typically goes something like 40-40-20, where we have 40% corporate, 40% associations and 20% other. Other would be sports and SMERF and so forth, local and also social. I will say that, that -- those proportions changed in 2026, where sports and social were much higher as a proportion of the total. And that was very much, FIFA, right?

Mark Hoplamazian

Yes, exactly. It's all FIFA.

Bennett Rose

I mean, are you able just to provide or characterize the pace of group bookings just overall for '27? I was it like mid-single digits or maybe.

Mark Hoplamazian

If you remove FIFA, it's mid-single digits right now. And I think the year is young. The corporate demand is very encouraging. And I think that's really what we -- it's not just corporate, by the way, in group. But if you look at our negotiated business, we were up 5%, 4.8%, something like that in the third quarter for corporate negotiated business across our full-service hotels. That's significant. So I think that we're seeing health among the -- significant health amongst the larger corporations -- and so they're traveling. They're out. They're supporting business travel generally and group is a particular standout in terms of rate of growth into '27.

Bennett Rose

We'll see now that's why Hyatt isn't on Citi's travel portal. If you're doing too well.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Dan Politzer with JPMorgan.

Daniel Politzer

I just wanted to follow up on the distribution business, kind of how you're thinking about the recovery into next year and the path to getting back to that 2025 EBITDA levels for that business? And then similarly, can you maybe talk about your attitude or willingness and how you're thinking about keeping or selling this business and if this is something you have inbounds on?

Joan Bottarini

Sure, Dan. As we look into -- again, we're in the early cycles of planning for next year, but we do see this airlift capacity will have a direct impact for the distribution business and sequentially improving into next year. So that is absolutely what we're seeing in the data. And half of the business, and we've reported this before, is in the 4-star category. So as that consumer and their spending improves over time, and we're seeing some of that in our lower chain scales in the U.S. So as that improves, we'll see that business improve into those markets as well. And finally, with Jamaica reopening, that's a nice tailwind for the distribution business as they have more inventory to sell into next year. So do you want to comment on the other question, Dan?

Mark Hoplamazian

I think the answer is we really don't have any further update on how we're thinking about strengthening that business. It still remains a very important distribution channel for us, and it's certainly helped us significantly in the gain of market share that we have seen. because we're able to track where Lyft is coming from and where demand is coming from, primarily because we have a platform, a booking platform in use by over 175,000 travel advisers and travel agents. So we have a pulse on the market, and that allows us to be responsive to what we're seeing come through the system. Admittedly, the vast majority of that, which we are focused on is Five Star. That's really our core.

But with now Bahia Pinsipay and some other activities that we've got going under the Alula brand, we will see more 4-star activity over time. So I think the value of the platform is not diminished in value. In fact, it's probably grown in value during tough times and the ability to improve our competitive positioning remains ahead of us. So -- but nothing more specific to share with you at this point. So thank you all for joining us. I really appreciate the time that you've taken out of your busy days to listen. And stay tuned for really what will be another active quarter ahead. And we have, as you've heard from us, a very constructive positive outlook for the future. So thank you again, and have a good day ahead.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and have a wonderful day. You may all disconnect.