企業產品合夥公司 (EPD) 2026 年第 3 季財報電話會議：EBITDA 成長 16%，二疊紀展望上調

重點摘要

• Enterprise Products Partners LP 創造了 28 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，年增 16%，同時可分配現金流成長 27% 至 23 億美元。
• 創紀錄的營運量包括整合管道系統的 每日 1,480 萬桶當量，以及 每日 85 億立方英呎 的天然氣處理進氣量。
• 二疊紀盆地的處理進氣量年增 12% 至每日 46 億立方英呎的創紀錄水平。管理層將 2025 年至 2030 年二疊紀濕天然氣與 NGL 產量成長預測調升至 34%，而先前預測為 23%。
• Enterprise 有 63 億美元 已獲批准的內生性成長項目正在建設中。管理層稱目前併購乘數處於週期頂峰，因此相較於併購，仍更傾向於內生性投資。
• 該合夥企業宣佈發放季度配息 每普通單位 0.56 美元，年增 2.8%，並在本季度回購了 1.12 億美元 的普通單位。
• 共同執行長 Jim Teague 表示這是他最後一次參加季度法說會。Randy Fowler 預計將於 1 月接任執行長一職。

重要財務數據

截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日止的 12 個月中，Enterprise 透過 53 億美元 的資本回報給股東，其中包含 48 億美元的配息 與 4.37 億美元的回購。這相當於 營運調整後現金流的 54%。

業務與營運表現

二疊紀天然氣與 NGL 產量的成長，推升了 Enterprise 在處理、管道、分餾、儲存及出口業務的業績。Haynesville 天然氣管道運量增加、美國能源與石化產品需求強勁，以及新投產資產的貢獻，也共同支撐了獲利與現金流。

整合管道系統輸送量達到創紀錄的 每日 1,480 萬桶當量。海運碼頭出口了 每日 250 萬桶 的液態碳氫化合物，而天然氣處理總進氣量達創紀錄的 每日 85 億立方英呎。

二疊紀處理廠進氣量達到 每日 46 億立方英呎，三年複合年增率為 19%。管理層將更強勁的長期天然氣前景歸因於氣油比提升，包括油井遞減特性、含氣量較高的特拉華盆地地層活躍度增加，以及提高總採收率的技術應用。

過去 12 個月投入營運的資產包括 Enterprise 在特拉華盆地的第 11 座處理廠、Bahia NGL 管道、位於 Mont Belvieu 的第 14 分餾廠（Frac 14），以及 Neches River NGL 出口碼頭的第二期工程。

預計於 2026 年第 4 季完工的下一批重大項目包括位於休士頓航道的 每日 30 萬桶 LPG 出口擴建工程，以及位於米德蘭盆地的 每日 3 億立方英呎 Athena 天然氣處理廠。該 LPG 項目將使休士頓航道的裝載能力提升至 每日約 110 萬桶。管理層表示該擴建產能已全部簽約。

管理層展望指引

Enterprise 預計 2026 年成長性資本支出為 29 億至 34 億美元（已扣除已收到的約 6 億美元 資產出售收益）。維持性資本支出預計約為 6.5 億美元。

管理層目前預計 2027 年成長性資本支出將維持在 30 億美元 左右，但計劃在完成年度預算程序並審視生產商計劃後更新展望。

該公司目前預測 2025 年至 2030 年二疊紀濕天然氣和 NGL 產量將成長 34%，高於先前預測的 23%。其對 2030 年原油產量的預測僅變動了 每日約 10 萬桶。

管理層表示，天然氣成長曲線走高，支持處理廠建設速度接近 每年兩座。延伸至特拉華盆地的 Bahia 管道預計將於 2027 年第 4 季投入營運。其擴建至 每日 100 萬桶 的計畫定於 2027 年第 4 季展開，並持續至 2028 年年中。

在 2026 年前九個月調整後 EBITDA 成長 15% 後，管理層表示 2027 年相較於 2026 年的成長可能會較為溫和。管理層未提供具體百分比，原因是地緣政治局勢與相關系統價差仍存在不確定性。

Enterprise 繼續將 營運調整後現金流的 55% 至 60% 視為用於配息與單位回購的合適區間，且資本回報仍以配息為主。

風險與關注事項

• 管理層表示，地緣政治衝突和全球供應中斷可能會重大影響 Enterprise 系統的商品價差，進而限制對 2027 年成長的可見度。
• Waha 天然氣價格劇烈波動導致 2026 年第 2 季出現約 200 天因經濟考量而停產 的情況，不過生產已在第 3 季恢復。
• 永久性電力與動力泵站仍是 Bahia 擴建時程的關鍵路徑。
• 隨著生產商整合改變了客戶組合，ATEX 重新簽約的討論仍在積極進行中。管理層預期新一代合約將反映當前市場狀況，同時指出 ATEX 在 EBITDA 中的佔比不足 3%。
• 隨著較新的地層和不斷演進的油井技術帶來更多營運數據，二疊紀天然氣產量的預測可能會繼續調整。

分析師問答亮點

二疊紀天然氣成長： 管理層表示，氣油比提升反映了油井遞減特性以及開採方向轉向含氣量更高地層的現象。公司承認其預測包含保守假設，天然氣產量可能會進一步上升。

基礎設施需求： Enterprise 預計二疊紀天然氣成長曲線更加陡峭，將推動處理廠建設接近每年兩座。管理層亦指出，在第 15 分餾廠（Frac 15）之外可能還需要額外的分餾產能，但目前尚未公布進一步計畫。

LPG 出口： 休士頓航道每日 30 萬桶的擴建工程已全部簽約，目前處於早期試運轉階段。管理層預計 2027 年總出口量將顯著增加，並表示約 90% 的 LPG 產能在 2030 年年前已簽訂合約。

資本配置： 管理層強調內生性成長，因為從歷史來看，與併購相比，內生性成長能產生更穩定且較少意外的回報。2.9 倍的槓桿率提供了靈活性，但公司目前預估槓桿率不會大幅低於當前水平。

NGL 價格與石化產品： 管理層將近期乙烷與丙烷近月價格強勢歸因於墨西哥灣沿岸新裂解廠的需求、額外的出口產能以及分餾產能緊張。Enterprise 仍預計美國乙烷市場將保持供過於求。石化產品方面，本季 MTBE 的強勁表現抵銷了丙烯與乙烯出口的疲軟，管理層表示儘管 MTBE 出現季節性疲軟，該部門的表現仍具永續性。

法說會完整逐字稿

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完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Enterprise Products Partners LP's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the call over to Joe Theriac, VP of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Joseph Theriac

Thanks, Lateef. Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss third quarter 2026 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today.

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange and 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable and give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

A. Teague

Thank you, Joe. As some of you may or may not know, this marks my final quarterly earnings call as co-CEO of Enterprise. Looking out across this room and reflecting on nearly 3 decades, it's impossible not to feel a profound sense of gratitude [indiscernible] the journey we have shared. When I joined Enterprise in 1999, the company had an enterprise value of less than $2 billion. Today, it approaches $120 billion. The true measure of Enterprise has never been just the number on the balance sheet. It has always been defined by a philosophy that was [ ended ] down by Dan. Do the best you can every day. Those simple yet profound words became the foundation of the Enterprise culture, define both our personal and collected mission, achieved extraordinary results through hard work, perseverance and team work.

Before going Enterprise, I spent more than 2 decades at [ Dow Chemical ]. I was an Enterprise customer. My time on the other side of the negotiating table gave me a unique perspective of the midstream industry. It helped me to view our assets from the customers' point of view. That customer-first mindset is woven directly into our culture, driving our team to ask the hard questions. How do we solve our customers' problems? How do we eliminate downtime and how do we keep products moving. That mindset, combined with an extraordinary team willing to ask [indiscernible] why not allowed us to move quickly when the shale revolution transformed our industry.

We spent the last 20 years connecting supply basins from the Permian, Eagle, Haynesville and Marcellus to our customers along with the Coast. And when domestic production exceeded U.S. demand, we built and expanded our collection export terminals to deliver product all over the world. When I look at our network of pipelines, plants and docks, I don't just see physical assets, I see the people who run them. Our assets thrive because the people operating them care about one another. Enterprise's success has never been driven by individual [ Eros ], it's driven by teamwork. We operate as one, 1 team and 1 book, the Enterprise book. A decision is made based on the overall benefit for the company. For a long time, we've measured things in [ Dan ] dollars. Today, we measure them Randall dollars. Our strength comes from checking [ egos ] at the door and staying laser-focused on the details. All the men and women across our entire system, thank you. You are the true engine of Enterprise. You've braved freezing rain, brutal heat hurricanes and a pandemic. And when times get tough [indiscernible] work around the clock to keep production flowing. Serving alongside you has been the greatest breach of my professional life.

To Randall, thank you for your unwavering support and thank you for your dedication for preserving our [indiscernible] values. To my partner, Randy. We have shared an incredible working partnership for nearly 30 years. Your financial discipline, sound business judgment and dedication to our core values represent everything the Enterprise culture stands for. As Randy assumes the CEO role in January, I step aside knowing with certainty this company is absolutely in the best hands, Finally, by our investors and the analyst community. Thank you for the engagement, the sharp questions and the trust you placed in our company over the years.

And with that, you got the ball [indiscernible] boy.

W. Fowler

And as always, you're a hard act to follow. Thank you for your leadership and interest over the past 28 years. You have been a pace setter and driver of value creation for our customers and our partnership. Whether it was developing NGL markets, both domestically and internationally, to absorb all the prolific amount of NGLs produced from the shale plays. Or developing transparent and liquid pricing hubs for ethylene and polymer propylene that benefited our petrochemical customers or leading the [indiscernible] to improve the Houston Ship Channel [ through Assure 2-way ] traffic in securing the Project 11 deepening and widening expansion project, you have been one of the leading change agents in our industry. We congratulate on an extraordinary career and wish you the absolute best and the next chapters of your remarkable life.

Now with that, let's turn to the quarter. Enterprise reported another strong performance for the third quarter. These results were primarily driven by increased natural gas and NGL production growth in the Permian. And that was reflected across our entire natural gas and NGL value chain businesses. Also from continuing strong demand for U.S. energy and petrochemical products including the motor gasoline additives we produce, also higher natural gas pipeline volumes in the Haynesville Basin as well as earnings and cash flow from new assets placed in service over the past 12 months.

For the quarter, we generated $2.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA a 16% increase over the third quarter last year. Distributable cash flow from operations increased 27% year-over-year to $2.3 billion, providing 1.9x coverage and generating $1.1 billion of retained cash flow that we've reinvested back in the partnership. Our integrated pipeline system moved a record 14.8 million barrels per day equivalent and our marine terminals exported 2.5 million barrels per day of liquid hydrocarbons. And our natural gas processing business, total inlet volumes reached a record 8.5 Bcf a day.

In the Permian Basin, plant inlet volumes increased by 12% compared to the third quarter of last year, hitting a record 4.6 Bcf per day. Our 3-year CAGR on Permian plant in volumes is 19%. That production growth feeds our integrated NGL value chain supporting higher pipeline, fractionation, storage and export [ utilization ]. Our system provides our producer customers flow reliability and access to multiple markets while providing our consumer customer supply diversification.

Assets that began operations during the past 12 months include our 11th natural gas processing plant in the Delaware Basin, the Bahia NGL pipeline, frac 14 in Mont Belvieu, and the second phase of our Neches River NGL export terminal. Global energy supply disruptions and volatility continue to support strong international demand for U.S. hydrocarbons, particularly NGLs, petrochemicals and refined products. In this environment, our reliability, flexibility and most of all, price transparency remain increasingly valuable for our international customers.

Looking ahead, our next major projects scheduled for completion in the fourth -- in the fourth quarter are 300,000 barrels a day LPG export expansion at our Houston Ship Channel, export marine terminal and a new 300 million cubic feet per day per gas processing plant in the Midland Basin. The LPG lean terminal expansion will increase our total LPG loading capacity at the ship channel to approximately 1.1 million barrels per day. Athena, our 20th natural gas processing plant in the Permian Basin will increase our total processing capacity in the basin to nearly 5 Bcf per day. We have recently updated our production growth -- Permian production growth forecast through 2030. While our 2025 to 2030 forecast of crude oil production, changed modestly, the growth changed modestly, only 100,000 barrels per day by 2030 our forecast of wet natural gas and NGL [ production ] during this time period increases to 34% due to higher gas to oil ratios in the Permian. This compares to 23% growth for this time period that we forecasted last April.

I'd refer you to Page 9 of our third quarter earnings supplemental slide deck for this updated forecast. And [ Cott ] can address this further during our Q&A. We have a confident outlook continued production growth in the Permian Basin and robust domestic and international demand are providing attractive organic growth opportunities for the partnership. We are remaining disciplined in our capital allocation, rather than pursuing acquisitions at top-of-the-cycle M&A multiples, we have been opting for targeted organic growth that historically provided us higher and more consistent returns on capital with fewer surprises. We have $6.3 billion of organic growth projects that have been sanctioned and are under construction. We believe with these opportunities and solid execution, our team can continue to deliver cash flow per unit growth that will increase the value of our partnership over time.

During the quarter, we declared a distribution of $0.56 per common unit for the third quarter, which is a 2.8% increase over the distribution that we declared for the third quarter [ '25 ]. The distribution will be paid on November 30 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on October 30. The partnership purchased $112 million of its common units during the third quarter. Total year-to-date repurchases for 2026 were $387 million bringing the cumulative utilization of our $5 billion buyback program to 36%. In addition to buybacks, purchases under our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan totaled approximately 1 million common units. For the 12 months ended September 30, 2026 Enterprise paid out approximately $4.8 billion in distributions to limited partners combined with $437 million of buybacks over the same period Enterprise's total capital return was $5.3 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 54%.

Total capital investments were $1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2026, which included $900 million for growth capital projects and $185 million of sustaining CapEx. Our expected range of growth capital expenditures for 2026 will net to between $2.9 billion and $3.4 billion after applying approximately $600 million of proceeds from asset sales already received. While we currently expect our growth capital expenditures in 2027 to still be in the $3 billion area. Given the expected natural gas and NGL volume growth in the Permian, we will provide an update next quarter after we complete our annual budget cycle and review [ production ] plans.

Sustaining CapEx for 2026 are expected to be approximately $650 million. Our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $33.7 billion as of September 30. Assuming the final maturity date for our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio is approximately 17 years. Our weighted average cost of debt is 4.7%, and approximately 96% of our debt was fixed rate. At September 30, our consolidated liquidity was approximately $4.8 billion, including availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand. As of September 30, our consolidated leverage ratio was 2.9x on a net basis after adjusting debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced by the partners -- partnerships unrestricted cash on hand. Our leverage target remains 3x plus or [ minus 1/4 ]. So that is 2.7x to 3.25x.

With that, Joe, we can open it up for questions.

Joseph Theriac

Thanks, Andy. Lateef, we are ready to open up the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question is from the line of Jean Ann Sailsbury of BofA.

分析師問答

Jean Ann Salisbury

Jim, best of luck to you in retirement. We are definitely going to miss hearing quotable quotes on these calls. There will be a void during earnings season, and thank you for all of the help.

A. Teague

Thank you, Jean Ann.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Corey, I just wanted to ask what drove the increase in your gas-to-oil ratio forecast? Was it decline curves in wells that have already been online? Or was this more of an expectation of a coming producer shift to more Delaware or something like that?

Corey Johnson

Yes, Jean Ann, it's a great question, and I think you nailed it. It really is both of those factors kind of combined. So when we think about the decline curves we have been seeing the [indiscernible] all on natural gas, so when we look at our PDP, you get that compounding effect of more natural gas coming online relative to crude oil. So that was one of the key drivers for increased GORs in the basin. The other one, obviously, as you pointed out, is people moving to different locations, whether it be moving just into a location in the Delaware Basin where we're seeing a little bit of activity from a growth perspective. Typically, the Delaware Base is dryer, but they're also hitting new benches that are [ using ] really high GORs. Some of these benches typically will reach as high as 89 GOR on [indiscernible], and these are the Woodfords and the Barnett's relative to what we would see on a Wolfcamp that's more like a 2 GOR IP. So some of these areas definitely have rock that have more gas -- and when we build out our forecast, Jean Ann, and there's a couple that we like to look at. One of them, obviously, is location, as I just mentioned, another one is technology, and we keep looking at what the producers are doing in the basin, using different potents, new surfactants, new drilling mechanisms, the frac equipment is better.

When I think about total recoveries that come out of the rock, as we've been talking about an increase in total recovery in the basin, those last few percent are typically going to be a lighter molecule. So these are all factors driving higher GORs.

Jean Ann Salisbury

Thank you. I look forward to doubling into it even further with you in the next few weeks. As my follow-up, ethane and propane prices have been very strong in the past month or so. I think some are attributing it to a ramp in exports. Some are saying that fractionation is extremely tight, and that's the main driver. I'm just wondering what your view is and whether these elevated price levels of ethane and propane you expect to persist?

Tyler Cott

Jean Ann, it's Tyler Cott, yes, we've seen a little bit of an increase. It's been mostly in the front of the curve. And I think it's for the reasons that you said, just timing around demand and supply. We've had new ethane cracker in the U.S. Gulf Coast reportedly starting up and a little bit of new export capacity. So I think that's part of it, along with fractionation waiting to come online. I think it's important to note, though, that the U.S. is still extremely competitive somewhat due to the high freight cost. So U.S. consumers of those NGLs are still very much advantage to the rest of the world.

Unknown Executive

And Jean Ann, this is [indiscernible]. I'll just add that ethane production is continuing to grow, we still continue to expect ethane to be long here in the U.S.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen of Barclays.

Theresa Chen

Congratulations again, to Jim. Thank you for your leadership, and we wish you the best as well. Going back to the macro forecast, given the magnitude of the gas provision in just 6 months and with the provisions consistently moving higher over the past iterations [indiscernible] conservatism and general subjectivity is embedded in your assumptions? And do you see the potential for CR to surprise even further to that upside?

Corey Johnson

This is Corey. Yes, I think there are some conservative variables that we have in there. When we look at how these type curves are changing, it's a measure of what we've seen change in the past. And some of these new formations are really new to us. And so we're going to see how they shake out. So there could be more gas.

Theresa Chen

And turning to the Northeast with continued upstream consolidation there, how are you thinking about the implications for ATEX recontracting at this point. I'm taking into account the existing plans at [ AR and RSE ] and now the [ ETT ] branch combination -- does the change in producer landscape alter the commercial dynamics around ATEX as those contracts come up for renewal soon?

W. Fowler

Yes. And Theresa, before I turn it over to Carrie to answer. Just to keep in context, this is less than 3% of our EBITDA. Carrie, go ahead.

Carrie Weaver

This is Carrie Weaver. We don't view the recent announcements as materially changing how we look at ATEX. We recognize that there certainly could be some optimization as customers look at their portfolios. And we would expect the next generation of contracts to reflect today's market rather than the e-com that existed when [indiscernible] was originally contracted. But the conversations are still dynamic, and we're having those with current potential new shippers as we continue to evaluate on a high level what the best, most economic uses of the pipe, but we continue to view ATEX as a very strategic asset and that's especially with the significant amount of demand coming online in the Gulf Coast that will need the ethane.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis of Citi.

Spiro Dounis

Thanks, operator. Congrats once again, Jim, Randy, very much looking forward to your first monologue. Going to the '27 outlook first. I know the original 10% increase in '27 is maybe less relevant now, given the '26 outperformance. But from what I can tell, you've largely sort of held firm that ultimate EBITDA endpoint for '27 and maybe hesitant to say that '26 tailwinds are durable through next year. So curious now, maybe to get an update on that outlook, especially in light of you raising your Permian volume outlook?

W. Fowler

Yes. Spiro, I don't get used to the monologue. We're going to be having some additional speakers on the next call. Fair question. The one thing to keep in context, if you just look at our EBITDA through the first 3 quarters of this year, we're up 15% year-to-date. So I think to a degree, we got things backwards when we said we were looking at modest growth in '26 and then we could see up to 10% growth in '27. I think the way it's turning out, again, 15% up year-to-date. So 2027. Hard to know what the world will bring in '27 as far as geopolitical conflicts and what have you, but '27 may be more modest compared to what we're going to wind up reporting 2026.

Spiro Dounis

Got it. And we see a modest percentage basis? Just want to make sure I understand what that means.

W. Fowler

Spiro, it depends on what your crystal ball is for geopolitical [indiscernible]. Because that's where we picked up some nice spreads across the system. So without that, I think it's probably more modest, not really looking to put a percent on it.

Spiro Dounis

Yes. I can appreciate the lack of clarity these days. Second question, maybe just turning to leverage below 3x now, what I could tell, trending perhaps even below your sort of lower end of the range next year if all goes well. Good problem to have, certainly, but I guess at what point do you consider yourselves under levered? Is that a meaningful consideration in your mind? And what are the options to address it? I know buybacks are there, but you've taken a growing but kind of measured approach on that. And so I'm curious, do you see large growth opportunities manifesting themselves now for later in the decade? Or does M&A suddenly come back into focus?

W. Fowler

Spiro, we -- from the -- we're just looking at 2.9x on debt-to-EBITDA. We just picked that this quarter and think of that -- some of that is the tailwind of 15% EBITDA growth this year. So we're benefiting from that. Certainly, the balance sheet flexibility gives us a lot of -- a lot of room on the M&A side. But again, as we said in the prepared remarks, we've really been deliberate on the M&A front. And it seems like organic growth gives us more consistent returns of capital. And like I said, I'll reiterate with a lot fewer surprises than what we see on the M&A side. So I don't see the [indiscernible] for our debt to go much lower than where it is today. And -- but we've got -- as we said in the prepared remarks, we've got a lot of good growth opportunities coming in, especially when you come in and look at just the gas and NGL rich content, in the Permian. We've got a lot of room to run.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta of UBS.

Manav Gupta

I actually just wanted to follow up quickly on the Bahia expansion. Your partner is obviously setting the envelope of developments within the Permian with stackable technologies and their volumes are growing at a faster pace than anyone would have expected. So if you could give us an update on the Bahia expansion probably coming on from 1 year from now?

Carrie Weaver

Yes. This is Carrie. As we look at Bahia, the extension into the Delaware will be in service for fourth quarter of '27, the expansion of 400,000 barrels a day, stepping us up to 1 million barrels a day. We start in the fourth quarter of '27 as well and continue through mid-2028. And that's as we get permanent power and pump stations with power really being a critical path.

Manav Gupta

Perfect. And my quick follow-up is, I think you mentioned in the opening comments that you don't want to pay higher multiples at the peak of the cycle. But thinking about very strong balance sheet, any potential bolt-on opportunities, where are the areas where we be potentially looking to buy some stuff if it's available at the right price.

W. Fowler

Really, I would -- I think as far as bolt-on opportunities really across the entire value chain across the entire system.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay of Goldman Sachs.

John Mackay

Go back to the [ current outlook ] a little bit, and this has been touched on, but maybe ask it in a different way. With the higher Permian gas growth outlook, how do you see that kind of changing your project plans over the next few years? I mean, if you're going to, let's say, hold relative G&P market share, it probably implies more plants and therefore, more downstream in the plan than you would have been considering before. So maybe just kind of walk us through how you're thinking about that.

Justin Kleiderer

John, this is Justin Kleiderer. I think in the past, we've said range 1 to 2 a year on plants. Certainly, with the higher growth curve, we feel more confident that we're going to be closer to the 2 per year. if you look historically, processing capacity growth versus production growth versus 2019 had basically matched each other 1 to 1. And so if you just take that out further, the steeper that gas production curve goes, the more infrastructure is going to be needed to support it. So to the extent we continue to revise that curve the more we'll need. So I still think 2 year is good for the runway. And then we'll look to see how some of these newer developments in that basin continue to unfold and pivot around that data.

John Mackay

That's clear. I appreciate that. Second one for me. We have seen LNG contracting off the Gulf Coast pick up on the back of a couple of things, but one of them has been let's say, let's call it an [ energy ] security bid. Anything you guys can share on the LPG contracting side in terms of tone of conversations, how that's picked up over the last couple of months and what we could expect from here?

Tyler Cott

Yes. John, this is Tyler Cott. I think like we said before, on the LPG side, we're pretty highly contracted about 90% through the end of the decade. I think in terms of what we're hearing from our customers, yes, energy security is a big part of it. I think a couple of other things are just the confidence in the U.S. producer and the [indiscernible] story that we're talking about, our customers definitely see that. And then I think, finally, at least for us and our assets, we offer a little bit of a differentiated service. We have a lot of scale, a lot of flexibility for different terminals. So I think that's also contributed to a lot of the strong interest that we've seen.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Jefferies. Julien.

Unknown Analyst

You've actually got Patrick. But from Julien and myself another congratulations on your retirement. So thank you for everything. And I think [indiscernible] will just be evolving a bit from some of the other ones there. In terms of that growth going towards the end of the decade, and I know you don't want to do a CapEx update to Q4. But does that extend to changing your forecast for a number of frac plants as well? And if you could talk a little bit about the lead times that you need for that kind of change in CapEx allocation. I mean if you're looking at adding stuff in '28-'29 does it basically have to be announced in Q4 or you can't do it in that time frame? Or is there a chance that could keep evolving as you change your forecast each year?

Zach Strait

Julien, it's Zach Strait. As far as outlook on fracs, I'm not going to say we're going to build -- I actually think we probably will build more but we feel pretty good where we're at. We just announced Frac 15. It's not coming on until '28. Lead times have been a bit more extended or probably 6 more months, but we've got a lot of flexibility in our downstream value chain, storage, fracs across South Texas, Louisiana. So we feel pretty good where we're at with 15 and we'll see what contracting we do for the next one.

Unknown Analyst

And another question evolving on that Permian growth story. I think I'm just wondering if you're planning on expanding your market share earlier. I think there was a comment in your last answer about growing 1:1 production growth and process capacity. Is there any intention to get more competitive and take more market share? I think you been growing that quite a bit over the last few years, right?

Justin Kleiderer

Yes, Patrick, this is Justin Kleiderer. Yes, I mean I think as Randy said in his comments, we've grown at a 19% CAGR, which is in excess of what the basin has done. And so I would expect we'll continue to see that trend play out going forward.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley of Wolfe Research.

Keith Stanley

Randy, how are you thinking about buybacks for next year and beyond? Is the 50% to 60% of free cash flow framework that you laid out for this year, something you think you would continue to do?

W. Fowler

As far as total capital return. Yes, I think what we had said is really in 55% to 60% range. I think that's still a good range to think about.

Keith Stanley

Okay. So 55% to 60% of return of cash flow.

W. Fowler

Yes. Specifically, 55% to 60% of adjusted cash flow from operations for distributions and buybacks. And just when you've seen what we've done over the last 12 months, that's still heavily skewed towards the distribution.

Keith Stanley

Got it. The next question on the LPG export expansion. So you're nearing completion. It's rather large at 300,000 barrels a day. How can we think about a ramp-up of volumes and how quickly you think you could fill that level of expanded capacity on exports?

Tyler Cott

Keith, this is Tyler Cott. It's full. We've contracted it. We are in the early stages of commissioning, and we're confident we're going to be commissioned here before the end of the year. As we've said, I think what's important for us is that we're getting bigger, but we're getting more flexible as well. We have 3 different terminals. They all have some amount of product flexibility. So we'll be steering our excess capacity, if you will, or spot capacity to the market that needs it month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter.

Keith Stanley

Okay. But it sounds like we're going to see a big step up in total export volumes in 2027 at a high level.

Tyler Cott

I agree, yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Bingham of Scotiabank.

Brandon Bingham

Just wanted to maybe go back to the Permian forecast, but more on the crude side, the growth was more or less unchanged, just a modest uptick there. Could you just walk through some of the dynamics that you're seeing on the crude side? And -- do you think there is any upside pencil to that particular stream?

James Bany

Brandon, this is Jay Bany. I think what we've seen on the crude side, over call it the second and third quarters, we've seen a little bit of production move up within our dedicated acreage. That's predominantly around the Midland Basin. And then in the Permian Basin, we've seen our trunk line connects with third-party gatherers, we've seen volumes increase on that, call it, up to 50,000 barrels a day. So we're seeing growth in both basins.

Brandon Bingham

Okay. And maybe just the broader basin forecast that you guys updated today. Any thoughts around that holistic piece.

Corey Johnson

Yes. This is Corey Johnson. So when we look at our forecast update, it really wasn't a change in the cadence of completions or drilling. It was a change in what we're seeing coming out of the rock. And so that's why we didn't see a whole lot of change in the crude oil, and we saw more of a change in the gas because, again, we're getting more gas and about the same cred we had expected before.

Brandon Bingham

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just a quick one. Petchem segment looks really good. Just kind of curious how much of that, looking at the bridge quarter-over-quarter can be carried forward? And maybe how much of that do you think is maybe more along the lines of market dynamics at present?

F. D'Anna

Brandon, this is Chris D'Anna. Yes, there were some puts and takes. So propylene was down lower. And so as our ethylene exports, but MTBE kind of picked up the slack and some. So we're seeing MTBE a little bit weaker right now, typical seasonal weakness, but ethylene and propylene have both picked back up. So I guess yes, summary, yes, it's sustainable.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman of Cowen.

Jason Gabelman

Two questions on the Permian gas, one maybe related to the near -- or to the 3Q print. You had a step-up in net volumes didn't have any new processing plants coming online. So I was wondering if you could talk through what drove the step up? How much of that is just a ramp-up of volumes on your acreage? Is there any consideration for others, offloading volumes onto your plants, which maybe is not sustainable? Any color there would be helpful.

Justin Kleiderer

Jason, Justin Kleiderer again. Yes. I mean, I think quarter-over-quarter, we're up 13% in the Delaware and just over 10% in the Midland. I'd say in the second quarter, we saw probably about 200 days of economic shut-ins due to all the volatility in Waha pricing. And so I think you can say that's a combination. The growth you're seeing quarter-over-quarter is a combination of that production coming back as well as some just organic -- additional acreage being completed and brought in line behind the system. So it's a combination of the 2.

Jason Gabelman

Great. And I wanted to hit on the long-term forecast again, sorry. But -- the dry gas out of the Permian forecast is only 7.5 Bs a day. I think at this point, we're up to 20 Bs a day of new dry gas egress coming out of the Permian between '25 and 2030. So Corey, I'm wondering if that kind of pipeline build out fed into your modeling at all and how you explain the delta between your dry gas production growth and the amount of pipeline capacity that's been contracted?

Corey Johnson

And when we run our analysis, it's really a bottom-up analysis looking at the rock and talking to all adjustments customers to see how they are reacting and then also what they're seeing in the basin. When it comes to the overall forecast, does factor in when we think about what the way looks like for producers. I think this is probably the clearest runway we've had in years for producers to look out and see that there is plenty of takeaway capacity for them to grow into -- and so it will be a factor when we sit down and recalibrate for our 2027 forecast that we should release somewhere in that March, April time frame.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Joe Theriac for closing remarks. Sir?

Joseph Theriac

Thanks, Lateef. Thank you to our participants for joining us today. That concludes our remarks. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.