綠比爾 (GBX) 2026 財年第四季法說會：2027 財年營收指引

綠薔薇公司 (Greenbrier Companies, NYSE: GBX) 儘管面臨鐵路貨車需求放緩及客戶投資決策延後，仍以具彈性的利潤率結束 2026 財年。第四季訂單有所改善，在手訂單季增，管理層預期 2027 財年營收與營業獲利能力將上升。

重點摘要

• 2026 財年營收為 25 億美元，整體毛利率為 13.6%，核心每股盈餘 (EPS) 為 2.60 美元，核心 EBITDA 達到 3 億美元。
• 第四季營收季增約 3% 至 5.91 億美元。財報每股盈餘 (EPS) 為 0.27 美元，扣除與廠房設施相關的精簡合理化成本後，核心每股盈餘為 0.39 美元。
• 綠薔薇在第四季接獲 3,400 輛鐵路貨車訂單，價值約 6 億美元，訂單出貨比 (book-to-bill ratio) 接近 1。在手訂單季增至 14,000 輛鐵路貨車，總價值 21 億美元。
• 自有租賃車隊規模增長約 23% 至 21,000 輛鐵路貨車，出租率達 98%。2026 財年經常性營收成長 55% 至 1.75 億美元。
• 展望 2027 財年，管理層預估營收為 28 億至 32 億美元，營業利益率為 7% 至 7.5%，每股盈餘 (EPS) 為 2.75 至 3.75 美元。
• 在特種鐵路貨車、生產產能吸收率改善以及租賃與車隊管理業務成長的支撐下，管理層預期 2027 財年的營運表現將集中於下半年。

重要財務數據

綠薔薇在年度結束時，於 2028 年前均無重大到期債務。約有 85% 的債務為固定利率，加權平均利率略高於 4%。

業務與營運表現

第四季商業活動大幅改善。接獲訂單 3,400 輛鐵路貨車，創下綠薔薇全年最高的單季訂單價值。全年訂單總計 12,200 輛鐵路貨車，總價值 19 億美元，其中租賃新簽合約約占訂單的 40%。

管理層表示，多數鐵路貨車類別的客戶諮詢量均有所增加。鐵路貨運量成長、強勁的多式聯運活動、高企的燃料價格以及北美鐵路貨車車隊規模縮小，被列為有利支撐因素。鐵路貨車閒置封存量已連續四個月下降，創下四年多來的最低水準。

租賃與車隊管理業務展現強勁成長。綠薔薇主要透過二手市場收購，為其自有車隊增加了約 4,000 輛鐵路貨車。續租費率持續遠高於到期費率，出租率則維持在 98%。

製造產量與員工人數已依需求進行調整。公司持續投資零組件自製（內包）以降低成本，並完成特種鐵路貨車的工程設計，預計將有助於支撐 2027 財年下半年的表現。綠薔薇在 2026 財年還完成了約 2,200 輛鐵路貨車 的計劃性翻修復原工作；這些車輛未計入財報中的訂單、在手訂單與交付量。

歐洲需求持續疲軟。管理層指出，預計 2026 年該地區貨運車廂交付量將低於 10,000 輛，低於兩年前的近 14,000 輛，2027 年的前景也類似。在巴西，受到出口訂單、有利的產品組合與製造效率支撐，Greenbrier-Maxion 在本季交付了超過 400 輛鐵路貨車。

管理層財務預測

預計計劃淨資本支出的約 70% 將用於支持租賃車隊成長。管理層預計 2027 財年期間自有車隊規模將達到約 22,000 至 23,000 輛鐵路貨車。

公司預計 2027 財年下半年的交付量和獲利品質將更強。管理層將較寬的每股盈餘 (EPS) 預估區間，歸因於客戶諮詢何時轉化為訂單和交付的不確定性，以及預期產業復甦的時間點。

綠薔薇將不再提供個別公司的交付量指引。管理層表示，交付量已不再能代表財務表現，因為公司既可出售新造鐵路貨車，也可保留用於租賃，且製造營收亦包含了維修、修復及翻修工作。

風險與關注焦點

• 客戶下單時機：地緣政治不確定性、關稅與貿易政策變化，以及較高的利息成本，導致客戶在 2026 財年延後投資決策。
• 貿易糾紛：涉及罐車的反傾銷和反補貼稅訴訟，以及另一項鐵路貨車連結器爭議正在帶來不確定性。管理層表示，在情況更加明朗之前，罐車訂單可能會持續受到壓制。
• 生產吸收率：製造產量下降導致第四季營運效率不足。2027 財年的改善部分取決於下半年產量的提升及更好的固定成本分攤（吸收）。
• 歐洲市場疲軟：貨運車廂需求持續低迷，需要繼續進行產能和成本調整。
• 租賃車隊維護：二手市場收購可能帶來較高的近期維護與重新認證費用，導致租賃毛利率出現季度波動。

分析師問答亮點

管理層表示，2027 財年的表現優於或低於預期的關鍵，主要取決於訂單轉化、交付時程、產品組合及製造吸收率。特種鐵路貨車預期將享有良好的定價與利潤率，而多式聯運需求的改善則有助於支持生產線進一步擴產。

公司在第四季列報了 400 萬美元 的廠房設施精簡合理化成本。管理層表示，大部分費用與退出位於奧馬哈的維修保養廠房有關，該廠房已出售給另一家營運商。

在近期收購的鐵路貨車經歷較高維護費用後，管理層預期租賃毛利率將回歸正常。管理層指出現常規區間在 55% 左右至 60% 出頭，同時指出車隊車齡、收購情況及維護時程可能會造成波動。

關於潛在的罐車關稅，管理層表示成本上升可能會推高整體產業定價並轉嫁給客戶。公司同時也正就連結器訴訟案向美國國際貿易法院提出上訴。

法說會完整逐字稿

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管理層陳述

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Greenbrier Companies Fourth Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions] At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Travis Williams, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Williams, you may begin.

Travis Williams

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter fiscal 2026 conference call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President; Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and President of the Americas; and Michael Donfris, Senior Vice President and CFO. Following their prepared remarks today, we will open the call for questions.

Our earnings release and supplemental slide presentation can be found on the IR section of our website. Matters discussed on today's conference call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier's actual results in 2026 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier.

With that, I'll turn it over to Lorie.

Lorie Leeson

Thank you, Travis, and good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today. Fiscal 2026 was a year marked by significant macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical uncertainties, for shifting tariff and trade policies and higher interest costs, leading many of our customers to extend the timing of investment decisions in long-lived freight railcars.

In that environment, Greenbrier delivered 15,400 railcars generated revenue of $2.5 billion and earned core earnings per share of $2.60 with aggregate gross margin of 13.6%. While these results were below what we expected at the start of the year and fourth quarter, given the market conditions, our performance remained quite resilient. The last period of similarly low industry activity was 4 years ago during our fiscal 2022. Comparing fiscal '26 to '22 and Greenbrier delivered about 4,500 fewer units that delivered aggregate gross margin 330 basis points higher.

Core EBITDA was 30% higher and core net earnings were 76% higher. The changes that we've made over the last several years to our manufacturing footprint, our cost structure and our lease strategy have raised gray bars performance at a low point in our cycle. We remain focused on actively managing the business to ensure stronger through-cycle performance.

Shifting over to manufacturing, we adjusted production rates at head count to match demand while continuing to complete new railcar designs for customers. Our insourcing investments to produce key components continue to lower costs across our North American network. In Europe, market conditions remain soft, and we continue to align our footprint and cost structure with demand as we drive for improved operational efficiency. Our leasing and fleet management team had a strong year.

During fiscal 2016, we grew our owned lease fleet to approximately 21,000 railcars, and with high fleet utilization and stable lease renewals, this business continues to deliver strong performance. A larger fleet adds recurring revenue opportunities for Green bar that make us less dependent on new railcar demand. Now I'd like to take a minute to discuss our trade policy continues to affect our industry, particularly for tank cars. Earlier this month, our competitor filed petitions seeking duties on certain tank cars. And in September, U.S. Customs and Border Protection affirmed its determination regarding certain freight rail couplers on finished railcars.

We are vigorously defending our position in both of these matters, including appealing to the freight rail appealing the freight rail coupler case to the core of international trade. On the tank car matter, perfectly clear, we proudly built tank cars in Arkansas today and employ more than 2,000 individuals in the United States, including our amazing teams of engineers and procurement professionals. The U.S. MCA continues to benefit most of our products and will work with policymakers to ensure greater understanding and reestablish consistent trade treatment of railcars in the North American market.

We're starting to see customer interest that was initially stymied beginning to return. Customer inquiries have increased across most railcar types supported by growth in rail traffic and the cost advantages of freight movement by rail compared to trucks, particularly at current fuel prices. Brian will provide more detail on the market and our commercial activity in just a few minutes. I did want to mention that our balance sheet continues to support our leasing growth strategy, and we ended the year with liquidity of nearly $1 billion, and Michael will dive into the capital allocation details in his remarks.

As I reflect on the long-term targets we established in our April 2023 Investor Day. I'm pleased with the progress we've made. We are on track to double recurring revenue within 5 years, growing 55% to $175 million in fiscal '26. Our aggregate gross margin reached the mid-teens in fiscal '24 and '25 and remained solid at 13.6% in fiscal '26, and while ROIC fell below our targeted range in 2026, reflecting challenging manufacturing conditions, coupled with significant investment in our growing lease fleet. It's actually averaged approximately 9% over the last 3 years.

These results demonstrate the resilience of our business model and the benefits of our strategic transformation positioning Greenbrier for stronger returns as market conditions improve. Looking ahead, our priorities remain: employee safety, operational execution, cost discipline, strategic growth of the lease fleet and improved through-cycle performance.

Finally, before I turn the call over to Brian, I want to say a few words about our new Board member, Manny Perlman, who officially joins the Board tomorrow. Manny brings extensive experience in investment management and capital markets as well as deep financial expertise. We look forward to benefiting from his perspective as we continue to execute our strategy and drive shareholder value.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brian.

Brian Comstock

Thanks, Lorie, and good afternoon, everyone. During the fourth quarter, commercial activity took a meaningful step forward. We received orders for 3,400 railcars valued at approximately $600 million, our highest order value of the year, spanning a range of railcar types and end markets. These orders resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of nearly 1, the highest we've seen since Q3 fiscal 2024. For the full year, orders totaled 12,200 railcars valued at $1.9 billion. With many customers deferring purchasing decisions this year, I'm extremely proud of how our commercial team continued to win business.

Greenbrier's backlog increased to 14,000 railcars valued at $2.1 billion, the first sequential increase since fiscal 2024, with deliveries extending into fiscal 2020. We Lease originations represented about 40% of orders for the year, reflecting the value of an integrated commercial model that offers customers both direct sales and leasing solutions. As a reminder, programmatic railcar restoration work is excluded from our orders, backlog and deliveries. In fiscal '26, we performed this work on approximately 2,200 railcars, making Greenbrier a clear market leader.

Looking at the broader market, conditions are becoming more constructive. Rail traffic has grown across a broad range of commodities this year, and elevated fuel prices have improved rail's cost competitiveness relative to trucking. Recent operating results from the Class I railroads provide encouraging signs for the broader rail freight market. Several major railroads reported solid volume growth in the third quarter, while intermodal traffic has been particularly strong, reaching record levels and posting double-digit year-over-year growth in recent weeks.

At the same time, railcar scrapping has outpaced new builds in North America over the past 2 years, reducing overall fleet size. Railcars and storage have fallen for 4 consecutive months and now are at the lowest levels in over 4 years. We believe these trends point to strengthening underlying freight demand and support a more constructive outlook for railcar manufacturing as customer confidence and capital investment recover. Additionally, tighter fleet supply supports improved lease rates and secondary market values and increases demand for railcar conversions, tank requalifications and rejacking as well as routine maintenance.

FTR projects North American deliveries of $23,000 in 2026, growing to 31,400 in 2027. The an increase of 37%, driven mostly by replacement demand. Our fiscal '27 straddles these periods and based on industry order levels observed over the past few quarters, we expect deliveries to be stronger and back half weighted. These dynamics are creating momentum for our commercial activity. Over the past several weeks, inquiries have increased across railcar types, and we are converting more of them into orders. The tariff and trade matters Lorie discussed are weighing on tank car demand. but we expect orders to resume as greater certainty emerges.

Our Leasing & Fleet management business benefits directly from these fundamentals and delivered an outstanding year. We grew the old lease fleet by roughly 4,000 railcars or 23% to approximately 21,000 railcar fleet, primarily through disciplined secondary market acquisitions while maintaining utilization at 98%. Renewal rates remained well above expiring rates and recurring revenue reached $175 million for a year up from $113 million when we established our goal of doubling recurring revenue.

Turning to manufacturing. We optimized production rates in the fourth quarter to align with demand and adjusted head count accordingly. Our teams design and produce several new railcar types, which will benefit and support our back half forecast. Our insourcing investments continue to lower costs across our North American network and maintenance services, wheel shipments exceeded our expectations with strong forward demand.

Outside North America, demand in Europe remains muted. Two years ago, freight wagon deliveries in the region were nearly 14,000 units. The industry will deliver fewer than 10,000 in 2026, and the 2027 outlook is similar. Our lease syndication capabilities have been important in supporting our European backlog while large operating lessors have limited their purchases and we continue to align our footprint and cost structure in the region with demand. In Brazil, Greenbrier-Maxion delivered another strong quarter with more than 400 railcar deliveries, including export orders, supported by a favorable product mix and continued manufacturing efficiency.

Across Greenbrier's businesses, our capital markets team played an important role this year. Its syndication and secondary market activity generated liquidity and supported the growth of our lease fleet and expanded our relationship with investors and operating lessors. In summary, fourth quarter orders and backlog improved. Our lease fleet grew significantly, and we kept the production aligned with demand. We remain focused on order quality, disciplined fleet growth and operating efficiency and we enter fiscal '27 encouraged by the activity we are seeing.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael.

Michael Donfris

Thanks, Brian, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the quarter was $591 million, up approximately 3% sequentially, primarily driven by growth of our lease fleet and favorable mix in manufacturing. Aggregate gross margin was 13.5%, driven by the timing of syndication activity and operational inefficiencies resulting from lower production volumes.

Earnings from operations were $26 million or 4.3% of revenue. That included $4 million in facility-related rationalization costs for the quarter. We continue to evaluate and optimize our footprint to align capacity with demand. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was approximately 6.5% and that reflects the mix of income across jurisdictions where we operate, along with the impact of foreign currency.

Earnings per share were $0.27, excluding approximately $0.12 per share of facility-related rationalization costs for earnings per share were $0.39, while core EBITDA was $72 million or 12% of revenue. For the full year, fiscal 2026 revenue was $2.5 billion, and aggregate gross margin was 13.6%, reflecting continued cost discipline and the contribution from leasing and fleet management. Diluted earnings per share were $2.49 and core earnings per share were $2.60. Core EBITDA was $300 million or 12% of revenue.

Now turning to the balance sheet. Greenbrier ended 2026 with total liquidity of $962 million, consisting of $235 million in cash and $727 million in available borrowing capacity. Our debt maturity profile is well laddered with no significant maturities until 2028. In addition, at fiscal year-end, approximately 85% of our debt was fixed with a weighted average interest rate of just over 4%.

Operating cash flow for the quarter -- for the fourth quarter was approximately $32 million. We maintained strong liquidity throughout the year and continue to invest in our lease fleet, supporting recurring revenue growth and long-term earnings potential. Our capital deployment reflects the flexibility of Greenbrier's integrated business model. The timing and mix of railcar sales, leasing and fleet investments can influence reported deliveries, revenue, capital expenditures and cash flow from quarter-to-quarter. Ultimately, our decisions are guided by the returns we expect to generate and the long-term value of the assets rather than an individual operating metric. This flexibility is particularly important as we continue to grow leasing and fleet management. We also remain committed to returning capital to shareholders.

During the year, we raised our quarterly dividend by 6% and repurchased 13 million of our shares. Our Board recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share, marking our 50th consecutive quarterly dividend. We remain committed to balancing investments in the business with shareholder returns while maintaining financial flexibility.

Before reviewing our fiscal 2027 guidance, I want to highlight a change to our annual outlook. As our lease fleet grows, company-specific deliveries have become less indicative of our financial performance, reflecting our flexibility to sell production or retain it for leasing. Additionally, manufacturing segment revenues includes maintenance, repair and programmatic railcar restorations, which are not captured in delivery volumes. Going forward, we will provide an outlook for North American industry deliveries rather than company-specific deliveries, better reflecting our evolving business model and aligning with industry practices.

For fiscal 2027, we anticipate North American industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 railcars, total revenue between $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion, with operating margin ranging from 7% to 7.5%. We expect earnings per share to be between $2.75 and $3.75. Total capital expenditures net of proceeds from equipment sales are projected to range from $225 million to $275 million with approximately 70% allocated towards growth of the lease fleet.

To provide some additional context around our outlook, we expect Leasing & Fleet management revenue to grow 12% to 15%. Manufacturing gross margin in the low double digits and aggregate gross margin in the 14% to 15% range. You can find additional modeling assumptions in the fourth quarter earnings slides on our website.

In summary, we continue to make progress strengthening Greenbrier financial fundament and expanding our recurring revenue platform as we entered fiscal 2027, our priorities remain focused on managing costs, maintaining financial flexibility and deploying capital with discipline. We believe these actions position Greenbrier to deliver attractive through-cycle returns and create long-term shareholder value.

Before we open it up to questions, I will turn it over to Lorie to share a few final thoughts.

Lorie Leeson

Thank you, Michael. And since this will be my final earnings call as CEO, I wanted to express my sincere appreciation to the entire Greenbrier team. It has been a true privilege to work alongside so many talented and dedicated individuals. Together, we've navigated challenges, celebrated successes and strengthen Greenbrier's position as an industry leader. I'm incredibly proud of what we've accomplished and confident in the company's future. Brian and the leadership team are well positioned to build on this foundation and lead Greenbrier into its next chapter.

I want to especially thank our employees for their hard work and dedication during a demanding year, and our customers, shareholders, Board of Directors and the broader investment community for the continued trust engagement and support. It has truly been an honor to lead Greenbrier and I look forward to the company's continued success.

And with that, we'll open it up to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

分析師問答

Ken Hoexter

Lorie, great working with you over all these years from all your different roles. So I appreciate the help and discussions along the way and best of luck in your next endeavor.

Lorie Leeson

Thank you.

Ken Hoexter

I guess I'll start off with maybe, I don't know if Michael or Lorie, whoever wants to jump in, but your range the $275,375, right, so it's a dollar wide. Maybe talk a bit about your upside downside. Is that just the same as your top of your goal revenue in $2.8 billion to $3.2 billion? Is there anything more in there in terms of what you want to highlight I don't know if you want to start off with the midpoint and go risk to the upside, downside?

And then just one 1 clarification while I have you, is you talked about reducing costs. What did you do? Did you shut a facility down? Or is that just getting rid of I don't know, line of workers or a shift?

Lorie Leeson

Well, so I'll take the last question first because that's kind of how my brain works. I can only remember so much at one point in time, maybe that's why retire. But we've been -- through this team has been through a number of ups and downs in our industry. And so yes, part of it is adjusting our workforce to match where demand is. We do that in a very respectful way with our workforce so that we can bring them back as demand improves.

The other thing that we're constantly doing is trying to see are there areas where we can refine how we're serving our customers. So whether that's our leasing customers, our management services customers, all of those things, how can we do that in a more efficient way, oftentimes, that's leveraging technology. But we've learned to just to be on that ever-continuing path. And I'd say, yes, we have closed a number of facilities over the last few years going back, I guess, it's probably been 3 years ago now when we sold our Gunderson facility here in Portland, where I'm very proud to say it's continuing to operate under the Gunderson name but doing business in a private way.

So yes, we've been looking at that footprint and trying to reduce costs where it does it make sense in the existing portfolio of Greenbrier and as we think through where are our investments returning value to our shareholders.

Michael Donfris

Yes. And I'll take the guidance question, Ken. As we think about the fiscal year, that range reflects just some of the uncertainty about customer inquiries, when they'll convert to orders and deliveries. And then just the industry forecast, as you know, was a pretty nice ramp from where 2026 is. And as we look across some of the things that we're focused on, as Lorie mentioned, we're very much looking at different cost opportunities, and as we invested in in-sourcing over the last few years, as we grow our volume, we can continue to take costs down with that in-sourcing investment.

In addition, we expect deliveries to be a little bit back half loaded in 2027, and we expect to see some of the absorption benefits that we'll have in additional production and additional volume. And the other part of it, we'll see the leasing and fleet management business grow and that will drive our aggregate gross margin, which is in that range as well. And then we continue to control SG&A. We continue to look for ways to focus on that as well.

Does that help, Ken?

Ken Hoexter

It does. On the guidance outlook, I guess if I could just get a follow-up, Lorie, on the closing facilities. Is there anything like entire operation in Mexico or the joint venture or in Arkansas, did you close any complete facility? Or is this just, again, like a line or what have you?

Lorie Leeson

Are you talking about in our fourth quarter, Ken?

Ken Hoexter

Yes, yes, I'm talking about the charge you take you said you...

Lorie Leeson

I apologize. I apologize. So the bulk of that was we exited our Omaha facility where we doing maintenance and repair work. So we did sell that to another party who is continuing to operate the business. We also had a small gain associated with exiting a long-time dormant joint venture that we have with Amsted and Ohio Castings, both to as Ohio I'm sorry, Omaha.

Ken Hoexter

And then I guess my last one, if I can think 1 more in, is pricing. Are you assuming -- I guess, just looking at your net orders, and I'm trying to gauge since you're switching to an industry number versus your own target and what that might mean for you. But are you -- given your focus more on specialized equipment or increasing railcar demand overall or tank cars, is there an assumption here of an accelerating revenue per car? Or maybe you want to talk about pricing in the marketplace a bit?

Brian Comstock

Ken, it's Brian. Yes, I think I can take that. I think it's a little bit of everything that you talked about. There's a number of specialty cars out there that we've really been focused on, and that's a lot of the engineering we did early on. And A significant part of that production does begin in the back half of the year. Pricing on that is good pricing and margins, we have nice margins associated. So that's kind of part 1.

Part 2 is we're seeing a lot of interest on the intermodal side. Intermodal has been dormant for a long period of time. You guys are seeing the railroads report out, and you're seeing TTX and others start to look pretty seriously. And so we see some line ramp-ups coming in as well. And then just generally, as the market recovers you start to see better pricing discipline across the board. So it's a combination of all 3.

Operator

The next question is from Andrzej Tomczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Appreciate it. Curious, maybe if we could just first touch on the leasing margin in the fourth quarter. I think it was 5% I think that was a little lower than we were expecting down a couple of hundred basis points sequentially. Just kind of curious, is that a reflection of you building the fleet or maybe more maintenance costs in the near term? I know the lower utilization sort of sequentially that might be driving it as well? And then just going forward, how do we think about the overall gross profit margin level for leasing into 2027? And relative to sort of this recent high 50s, low 60% level?

Brian Comstock

Yes, Andre, it's Brian. So it's really -- as you guys will remember from our last call, we added a number of units in Q3 that then began to go on lease in Q4. So there's some acquisition timing as cars were coming into the fleet, and that's the timing of maintenance, quite frankly. There's a number of programs around requalification and things that had to get done some catch-up work. On a go-forward basis, we see it returning to normal levels. So you'll see it back up.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Got it. And in terms of just if I could follow up there. When you say normal levels is I think at 25% in fiscal '25, you guys did closer to 67%. so should we be thinking sort of between 60% and 67% on a full year basis for 2027, just on a clarification point.

Lorie Leeson

I would say probably it's the mid-50s to low 60s is where we would try to see it. And I think there's oftentimes different things that are going on in particular periods that might have it impact. But I do think, as you're seeing us continue to stay focused on growing our own lease fleet, either from what we're originating and building in our shops or the secondary market transactions, some of the secondary market transactions were adding older cars, as Brian said, that have a little bit more maintenance on them. So that's where you're going to see a little bit of that variability. But we also have a great team that's evaluating these secondary market transactions.

So we're not just buying cars because we want to grow the fleet. We're buying cars that are good return on the investment that we're making, and then we've got a great team that manages how we're keeping those cars maintained.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Understood. Appreciate it. Maybe just on the leasing as well. What do you expect the leasing fleet count to end in 2027? I mean, obviously, you've been growing that pretty quickly. It was 17,000 units in; 25 -- or '26 and then up here at 21,000 in 2026, call it, 20% to 25% growth year-over-year. How are you expecting that level of growth sort of to trend here into 2027 on the lease fleet?

Michael Donfris

Right? Right. And I'll take that, Andrzej. As we look at 2027, there's certainly a very strong market in the secondary market, but we project that it's going to grow to somewhere between 22,000 cars and 23,000 cars as we look across the year.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Great. Maybe just shifting then to manufacturing here. So the guide for the industry deliveries of 26,000 to 28,000 during your fiscal year. Could you just help frame that up a little bit for you guys? I think if your share of industry delivery is sort of, and correct me if I'm wrong, maybe 30% to 40% I think that could still imply deliveries, depending on what you do in Europe could be down year-over-year if I have that math right this year. And I'm just curious if that's true, are we expecting more of that pressure to be front half loaded and then maybe you're expecting year-over-year improvements on a volume basis here in the back half?

Michael Donfris

Yes. And I think that you're thinking about it in a correct way in terms of the strength potentially more in the back half of 2027, fiscal 2027. As we look at year-over-year, we've got a kind of guide range that's kind of around where fiscal 2026 was that we expect to do a little bit better than 2026 in terms of deliveries.

Lorie Leeson

And maybe I'll just add on to that, part of what Brian was talking about earlier is the mix of cars that we're delivering. So these specialized railcars that we're building they only count as one, but they can be a lot more impactful when it comes to the overhead absorption and the capacity that it consumes within our fleet. And then further, as a reminder as to why we are stepping back from giving our specific delivery guidance is because while we've brought a great commercial team that's originating both direct sales and lease originations, those lease originations, some of them will keep on our balance sheet. And therefore, not all of that production shows up in deliveries.

And then we have been focused for the last several years on how can we do things differently within our production facilities to make certain that they're optimized and creating a return. So that's the, I love this word, programmatic railcar restorations that don't show up in deliveries. This is wheel activity, it's maintenance activity. We have a number of other things that are captured within manufacturing revenue that makes the correlation with Greenbrier deliveries not be as tight as we would like. So that's why we've changed that guidance.

Brian Comstock

Yes. And it's Brian, Andre. I'll just put an exclamation point on what Lorie said, it's the quality of the earnings in the back half versus the front half. So it's less about volume and more about the quality of mix.

Travis Williams

That's -- Andrzej, this is Travis. We can follow up and create a detail offline. But I would say, just to clarify, our industry forecast of 26,000 to 28,000 units, would represent growth over what we saw in our fiscal 2020 in terms of an industry. So just to clarify on that piece, and it is back-half weighted. So -- but we can get into some detail later.

Andrzej Tomczyk

That's very helpful. And maybe just for me to close off some broader thoughts here on the -- digging in a little bit more on the current state of the antidumping and the countervailing duty investigations that you guys kind of talked about in the opening script. Maybe just curious, like if -- one, if you think that's potentiality that, that could actually go through how you're thinking about that? And if prices ultimately have to go up for railcars on the back of that, maybe how are you and your customers speaking about the potential future impacts to the fleet strategy and maybe whether Greenbrier may have to pass on those higher input costs over time?

Lorie Leeson

So if I could, I'll break it into 2 pieces, right? So there's the antidumping countervailing duties on couplers. Couplers are a smaller component of an overall new railcar. I would not expect duties on those couplers to have a significant impact on demand. The issue is how a railcar manufacturer separates the coupler on a brand-new railcar as it's coming across the border from the rest of the railcar. In my mind, I think about this is like how would you put a duty on the steering wheel on a passenger car separate from a duty on the overall car. So -- and some of that is just how does that -- how do the mechanics of that work because new railcars have been crossing our northern and southern borders for decades without being treated as consumables. So that's on couplers.

On the tank cars, our customers are with us on tank cars and part of the government's role is to talk to them. And I think that they're going to be really vocal about whether or not Greenbrier and others that build take cars in Mexico have been doing untoward activities when we bring these cars into the United States. I'll probably get the stink eye from someone in the room, but I will say that is not our intent, and I don't think that, that's reflected in the gross margins that our teams have been putting up. We are focused on making certain that our products are priced consistent with the market. We don't -- if anything, we prefer to get very robust pricing, not dump pricing in order to take market share.

Brian Comstock

Yes. And to be clear, this is Brian -- just to put a finer point again on it is this is an industry issue. It's not a Greenbrier issue. So if it does go through, then the price of tank cars go up. And unfortunately, that price gets passed through to our customers, which is not what we want to do but it is what one participant has put upon the industry. And so the industry will deal with it, and it will raise prices, but it won't impact our financial performance or it should long term.

Andrzej Tomczyk

I appreciate the thoughts there. Just to close off 2 quick ones for me. Just want to clarify, are you -- have you paid tariffs on tank cars at all? And then -- and then just secondly, I wanted to also express Lorie, it's been a pleasure working with you and wish you all the best going forward. Maybe just one for Brian off the back of that as you take the home in early 2027? Are there specific areas of the strategy where you see a need for pivot or acceleration in either direction?

Lorie Leeson

Thank you for the nice words. It's been nice getting to know you as well. I'll take the tariff. We're continuing to work with CBP on how to navigate the system to do what they're asking us to do. Right now, the system is not set up to do that, but we continue to work very, very closely with that. And I look forward to hearing what Brian has...

Brian Comstock

No. Look, Lorie and I have worked together for 30 years. And what's great about our relationship is that we've developed a lot of the strategies together while she's led the initiatives. So these are things that I'm deeply rooted in as what we've progressed in the company. What you'll see for me is a continuation of what Lorie fundamentally has put in place. I think maybe with a newfound urgency around some of the business unit operations and their performance, leveling up the expectation from them, along with that, will be some of our costs and overhead structures and continuing to look at how we can improve our cost profile and then really putting and leaning in hard on the leasing growth side of our story so that we can continue to grow that side of the business.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Travis Williams for any closing remarks.

Travis Williams

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your continued interest in Greenbrier. This is the end of our fourth quarter earnings call.

Lorie Leeson

Thanks, everyone.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.