Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO) 2026 年第二季法說會：隨避險合約到期維持財測指引

重點提要

• Contango Silver & Gold 在 2026 年第二季分得 Manh Choh 產量的 30%，約為 8,900 盎司。該公司以每盎司 4,328 美元的平均黃金現貨價格售出 8,627 盎司。
• 管理層維持 2026 年應佔產量指引在 40,000–45,000 盎司，目前預計產量將略高於 41,000 盎司。第 3 及第 4 生產期預計各產出約 12,000 盎司。
• 上半年現金成本為每盎司 2,665 美元，總維持成本 (AISC) 為每盎司 2,830 美元。隨著高品位的南礦坑礦石取代低品位的北礦坑礦石，管理層繼續以全年現金成本約每盎司 1,900–2,000 美元為目標。
• 避險部位已於 7 月全部平倉。管理層表示，第三季將是公司歷史上首次每盎司黃金均按現貨價格出售的季度，同時 3,100 美元的賣權提供了下行保護。
• 截至 6 月 30 日，現金總額為 8,900 萬美元。管理層預計，如果金價維持在每盎司 4,400 美元，2026 年來自 Manh Choh 合資企業的現金分配將超過 6,000 萬美元。
• 公司正同步推進 Lucky Shot、Kitsault Valley 與 Johnson Tract 項目，其中 Lucky Shot 可行性研究工作預計於 2027 年進行，Kitsault Valley 則有 5 具鑽探機運作中。

關鍵財務數據

業務與營運表現

Manh Choh

上半年的產量反映了來自北礦坑的低品位礦石，包括在回填前於資源模型之外回收的黃金。合資企業已於下半年進入南礦坑，管理層預期該礦坑的開採噸數與品位均將大幅提高。

南礦坑的預剝離作業已在前六個月基本完成。管理層預計，這一時間點效應加上處理量和品位的提升，將推動下半年單位成本大幅下降。

在金價為 4,400 美元且現金成本約為 2,000 美元的情況下，管理層說明每盎司利潤率約為 2,400 美元。由於 Manh Choh 會為未來幾個月的生產保留現金，因此公司側重於合資企業的現金分配，而非簡單的每盎司利潤率。

Lucky Shot

Contango 於 7 月 1 日完成了 Alaska Hardrock 交易，增加了專利礦業權、不動產及設備，同時買斷了 2% 的淨冶煉權益抽成 (NSR)。管理層表示，該交易使公司取得該區域的有效控制權，並彰顯其對 Lucky Shot 礦山潛力的信心。

最終的地下化驗結果包括一段品位高達每噸 972 克且肉眼可見黃金的攔截帶。兩台直升機支援的地表鑽機正在 Coleman 和 Lucky Shot 之間進行鑽探，而地下鑽探預計將於本月底重新啟動。

該計劃正在收集地質、地質工程及化驗數據，以進行直接出貨礦石 (DSO) 的可行性研究。管理層的目標是取得 400,000–500,000 盎司、品位約每噸 10–14 克的黃金資源量。鑽探預計將持續到 2027 年 3 月左右，可行性研究預計於 2027 年完成。

公司也在評估礦石分選，以去除不含礦的花崗閃長岩、提高稀釋後的採礦品位並減少運輸量。Fort Knox 是潛在的加工選擇之一，不過管理層表示其他替代方案也在審查中。

Kitsault Valley

截至 6 月底，計劃 40,000 公尺的鑽探計劃已完成超過 35,000 公尺。目前有 5 具鑽機運作中，近期每日鑽探進度約為 470–480 公尺。

管理層預計鑽探效率改善可在現有預算內增加約 5,000–10,000 公尺的進度。預計在電話會議後約一個月內發布初步化驗結果，隨後每兩至三週發布一次結果。

管理層將 Kitsault Valley 描述為以白銀為主的礦區。白銀約占 Torbrit、Wolf Vein、Dolly Varden 與 North Star 價值的 90%。公司的五年目標是生產 20 萬盎司黃金和 500 萬盎司白銀，其中白銀目標與該地區相關聯。

Johnson Tract

Johnson Tract 仍處於許可申請與基礎設施建設階段。管理層表示 FAST-41 審查程序正按計劃推進，道路與橋梁建設成本則低於預算。許可申請工作將與建設活動同步繼續進行。

管理層指引

• 2026 年應佔黃金產量：40,000–45,000 盎司，目前預估略高於 41,000 盎司。
• 第 3 和第 4 生產期：預計每個生產期產出約 12,000 盎司。
• 2026 年現金成本：約每盎司 1,900–2,000 美元。
• 下半年合資企業分配款：按公司預算假設金價每盎司 3,700 美元計算，約為 3,600 萬美元。
• 金價上漲潛在效益：若金價維持在每盎司 4,400 美元，管理層估計將額外增加約 700 萬美元的分配款，使全年分配款略高於 6,000 萬美元。
• 年終現金：預計約為 4,500 萬美元，現金可能在 2027 年第一季達到低點，隨後隨著 Manh Choh 在 2027 年期間提升產量而增加。
• Lucky Shot 可行性研究：預計於 2027 年進行，未提供具體完成日期。

風險與關注事項

• 能否達成全年成本指引，高度取決於南礦坑更高的品位、增加的加工噸數以及預剝離作業的完成。
• 預計的分配款增加是以金價維持在每盎司 4,400 美元附近為前提。公司的賣權設定了 3,100 美元的下限，但被管理層視為一種保險政策。
• Manh Choh 的現金分配可能不會直接反映營運利潤率，因為該合資企業會保留未來三到四個月生產所需的資金。
• 化驗實驗室的處理時間可能會延誤 Kitsault Valley 鑽探結果的發布。
• 在 Lucky Shot 直接出貨礦石模式中，運輸是重要的成本組成部分，這使得礦石分選表現成為可行性研究的重要考量。
• 隨著公司為三個項目提供資金，預計現金將有所減少，並預計在 2027 年第一季達到低點，之後管理層預計其將回升。
• Johnson Tract 在進行基礎設施建設的同時，仍需要持續推進許可申請。

分析師問答重點

在上半年表現較弱後，為何 2026 年產量指引仍可達成？
管理層預期南礦坑將比北礦坑提供更高的噸數與品位。最後兩個生產期預計各產出約 12,000 盎司，支持總產量略高於 41,000 盎司。

預期現金成本下降的主要原因為何？
上半年在處理較低品位礦石的同時吸收了南礦坑的預剝離成本。這些剝離成本大部分已經完成，預計下半年品位與處理量都將提升。

解除避險後如何改變現金產生能力？
自第三季起，每盎司黃金都將按現貨價格出售。管理層估計，如果金價維持在每盎司 4,400 美元，全年合資企業分配款將略高於 6,000 萬美元。

目前 Lucky Shot 鑽探的策略目的為何？
該項工作旨在縮小鑽探間距、更新資源模型，並為 2027 年直接出貨礦石可行性研究提供地質及地質工程數據。

Contango 有能力資助所有三個開發項目嗎？
管理層表示，8,900 萬美元的現金餘額以及預期的 Manh Choh 分配款項提供了足夠資金，能在當前預算下推進 Lucky Shot、Kitsault Valley 與 Johnson Tract 項目。

法說會逐字稿全文

完整財報電話會議逐字稿

管理層陳述

Bianca Pisciola

All right. Good morning, good afternoon or good evening, depending on where in the world you're login from today. I lucky enough to have with me today Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse, CEO of Contango Silver & Gold; and Mike Clark, the company's CFO, to discuss their recently released Q2 financials. Gentlemen, how are you doing today?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Good morning, Bianca. Good to see you again.

J. Clark

Good morning.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

And you, too, Mike.

Bianca Pisciola

Always good to see you both. For folks in the room, this is an interactive event. So you can use the chat button at the bottom at any point of today's event to get -- to submit your questions. We will try to get to your questions, but note that this is only a half an hour event today. So if, for whatever reason, we don't get to your questions, someone from the Contango team will be able to help you very shortly. You can also request a meeting with the team at any point during today's event by clicking the request meeting button at the bottom of your screen.

All right. Let's get into it today.

Bianca Pisciola

Rick, this is the first full quarter reporting as Contango Silver & Gold at Kitsault Valley -- with Kitsault Valley in the portfolio and the hedge book fully behind you as of July. Before we get into the numbers, how would you like to frame where the company sits today compared to where it was at this point last year?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. I mean, obviously, adding the Dolly Varden asset to Kitsault, I mean, it really is a world-class asset, and I think that's why we were eager to get the transaction completed. The teams are integrated. We'll talk more about the drilling later, but we've got 5 rigs turning at Kitsault, but there's a lot of other activity going on in the company at Lucky Shot and at Johnson Tract. But I think, frankly, the most exciting news for me is we're out from underneath the hedges. We've got a clear exposure for our shareholders to the upside in the gold price, which I think -- it shot up over $5,500, went back to $4,000, seemed to find a floor at $4,000. And that's when the team said, "Okay, now it's the time to take care of the hedges."

And I think that was the right call. So -- we've seen gold price continue to move up, and we're seeing now the -- we're getting the advantage of that. So I think from the macro side, which we can talk about later. But I think the company is in a great position. We're generating strong cash flows. We've got the better half of this year ahead of us with production from Manh Choh. We always guided that the first half was going to be lower and higher cost. And then, of course, we're set up well for 2027 when we'll have our -- probably the best year at Manh Choh with good grades and high grades, good grades and low cost. So -- yes, we're -- I think I'm really pleased with where we are as a company, and we still only have 33 million shares outstanding. So I think we're all, I think, pretty proud of that.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And Mike, let's get into the quarter. Your 30% share of Manh Choh came to about 8,900 ounces with 8,627 ounces sold at an average spot price of $4,328. The JV is still working through lower grade material from the North pit before higher grade South pit ore comes through. With that said, walk us through the production cadence for the back half of the year and why the 40,000 to 45,000 ounce guidance is still intact?

J. Clark

Yes. Thanks, Bianca. Yes. So Rick already kind of alluded to the grade being lower in the North pit, especially as we mined out kind of the outside of the resource model, there was some lower grade ounces that we did pick up before backfilling. So we didn't -- so this year, we're -- or the second half of the year, we're fully into the South pit, which has -- there's going to be more tonnes mined. There's going to be higher grade mined. And so we expect there to be about 12,000 ounces produced in both campaigns 3 and 4, which should get us to just slightly above 41,000 ounces of gold production for the year. So it's within our guidance, and that's what we're currently estimating as of today.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And cash costs for the first half came in at $2,665 an ounce, with all-in sustaining costs at $2,830. And the full year guidance sits at around $1,900 to $2,000 on cash costs. That implies a meaningful improvement in the second half. Can you bridge that gap for investors so they understand how much of this grade timing -- is this grade timing versus anything structural?

J. Clark

Yes. It seems like a lot higher number than what we're projecting for the year, but we still maintain that guidance, and it's largely driven by the pre-stripping in the South pit. And so you spent the whole first 6 months of the year spending money on that while also mining lower grades. And so as we get into the second half of the year, the pre-stripping is behind us, you're going to have higher tonnes mined and processed as well as the grade going up significantly. So all those things together, we still expect to come close to our guidance.

Bianca Pisciola

Awesome. And Q3 will be the first quarter in the company's history where every single ounce sells at spot with gold sitting about $4,400 right now. With the puts at $3,100 providing the floor, what does the margin picture actually look like on each ounce delivered from here? And how does that change the cash flow story for the rest of 2026?

J. Clark

Yes. I think of the puts more as just an insurance policy, and I don't really focus on those. We're always expecting gold to be above $4,000, and we budget everything at $3,700. But if you just look at it simply, you'd say $4,400 minus your $2,000 cash cost, you'd expect about a $2,400 margin. But because we're a 30% JV, I kind of more focus on what the cash distributions will be from the JV for the year because they always do hold some funds back to pay for the next 3 or 4 months of production. So I expect we should receive [ 18 ] -- about $36 million in the back half of this year from distributions. And if you apply -- using that $3,700 -- excuse me, $3,700-odd gold. So if you apply your $4,400 gold price, you'd expect to receive about another $7 million. So that should get our total cash distributions this year to slightly above $60 million if $4,400 gold holds.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And Rick, on July 1, you closed the purchase from Alaska Hardrock, which brings in the mineral claims around Lucky Shot along with the 2% net smelter royalty plus property and equipment. You now control that project outright with significantly reduced royalties. Why was that important to get that done now ahead of the feasibility study?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. I think it was sort of opportunistic. We've known the underlying landowner for a number of years. And he said, "When you're ready to talk, we'd love to own the asset and buy the royalty." And I think he thought about it for a while. And obviously, when we started this whole -- when we acquired Lucky Shot, the gold price was $2,000-ish. And so as that gold price ran up to $5,500, I think he thought well, better get something done.

So -- yes, it was 100% opportunistic. There are sort of no real magic there. We think it's a good deal for him. He did a great job in consolidating that district and putting all the different patented claims together, and he's held on it for a long time. So we're grateful to him for doing that because that's a work of -- you have to work hard to put all these different patents together. So it worked out well for us.

We own the underlying patented mining claims now. Obviously, the state mining claims all around it. We control the district effectively. And -- yes, we obviously bought the royalty out as well. So we're pleased with the overall transaction. Obviously, it's a -- we obviously wouldn't have done it if we didn't think we're finding good things at Lucky Shot. So I mean that sort of underscores our belief that we've got a real mine here.

Bianca Pisciola

Well, speaking of Lucky Shot, the final assays from the underground program included an intercept grading 972 grams per tonne with visible gold in the core. GMS is back underground advancing development, and you've got 2 helicopter-supported rigs turning on the surface program between Coleman and Lucky Shot. What are these programs designed to prove ahead of the feasibility study and the 2027 production decision?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. So basically, we're gathering all the geologic data, the geotechnical data, the assays, obviously, to do a DSO, direct shipping ore based feasibility study. And first step is to get the geologic model put together, the resource model update that, obviously, we're targeting 400,000 to 500,000 ounces of gold grading in the, I'll say, 10 to 15, 10- to 14-gram range.

Obviously, it's an underground mine. It was historically an underground mine, produced 0.25 million ounces at very high grades. We are going to look at -- they use hand-sorting back in the day. We will take a look at ore sorting and probably, obviously, more of a modern version of it with these ore sorters that work at incredibly high speeds, and they can sort on a lot of different variables. So that is something we'll take a look at because, obviously, transportation is a significant amount of the costs in a DSO model.

So if you can simply put the geology here is a quartz vein in a granodiorite, and the granodiorite is rock that doesn't have any gold in it. If you can mine something that's 2, 3 meters wide and a meter of that is granodiorite, you can get rid of it or get rid of 50% of it with the ore sorters, you're -- that much -- you've upgraded your average grade, your diluted mine grade and you're not transporting that material.

So yes, we've got a lot of work to do, but the first step is gathering all the -- getting the drill spacing down. We're drilling on about 25-meter centers. And then we do fan shots. So between the -- each time we're hitting the quartz vein, we're probably in the neighborhood of 10 to 15 meters apart. So this is a -- this will be measured indicated resource, and we'll be able to develop a mine plan around that. And as I said, the other metallurgy here is like super simple.

It's quartz and gold, a very small amount of sulfide. We've talked about the possibility of taking it to the Fort Knox mill. That's an obvious choice. I think it's fair to say that Fort Knox is interested. They still have a mill that has plenty of capacity in it. But there are other options that we are evaluating as well. So -- that's kind of where we're at.

Give us -- I think the drilling will take place between now, I mean we've been drilling, obviously, the surface drilling 2 rigs. The underground rig will start back up at the end of the month. And let's see what else. We'll be drilling until about March of next year. And obviously, working on all the engineering and what have you work between now and then. And don't have a date on when we'll have a feasibility study done, but it will be in 2027.

Bianca Pisciola

Awesome. And over at Kitsault Valley, you had more than 35,000 meters of the 40,000 meter program done by the end of June and a new resource estimate coming together this quarter. This is the first update since the merger closed. What should investors be watching for in that number? And how has the integration of the Dolly Varden team gone on the ground?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes, great integration. I mean it's a really good group of people, and they're -- I have to say they're like really kicking butt on getting the drilling done. We've got 5 rigs turning. They're averaging beginning of the season when they're drilling the shallower holes, they're over 500 meters a day, 100 meters a rig, which is really good. They're a little under that now, but the high-470, 480 sort of level. So they're cranking out a lot of core, and they're doing it very efficiently from a timing perspective, but also from a cost perspective, which obviously makes me smile and makes Mike smile. But we're smiling because we're going to do more drilling.

We're going to get more drilling, wring more drilling out of the budget. And this was flow-through finance. So we're probably going to get another, I'd say, 5,000 to 10,000 meters drilled with the same budget. So we're excited about that. Obviously, we'll have drill results out, I'm going to guess within a month. That's up to the laboratory gods, which never seem to favor anyone. When I go to conferences, that's probably the #1 complaint of exploration geologists is how long it takes to get assays. So -- but yes, I think we're tracking them, and I think we'll have results out within a month. So hopefully, sometime in later in August at the earliest, but probably more likely early first half of September.

And then once we put results out, you're going to have results every 2, 3 weeks after that. So...

Bianca Pisciola

Brilliant. Silver is trading around $65 an ounce, up roughly 70% from a year ago, and it's been leading gold for stretches of this rally. When you renamed the company, Contango Silver & Gold in March, some people saw that as a bet on exactly this kind of market. How does the silver exposure at Kitsault change the way investors should think about the story?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

I think I used the term world-class, and I don't use that lightly. There are very few silver-only -- silver deposits. Most silver producers are -- it's a bit of smoke and mirrors, frankly, because it's -- they produce more gold value-wise than they do silver. Kitsault is a silver centric silver deposit. It makes up 90% of the value for the Torbrit and the Wolf Vein and Dolly Varden and North Star. Those are all -- you're 90% of the value in silver. You've got some base metals, lead zinc. You don't have a lot of gold. There is gold at Homestake, which is sort of a separate center. It's part of the same overall geologic system, but it's 5 kilometers away, and it's gold-rich.

Interestingly enough, between the two, you do have a gold and silver deposit, which we -- which is right adjacent and named Homestake Silver, but it has good silver and good gold. So nothing wrong with that. But the lion's share of the ounces are silver ounces. And -- so that's going to make for a very interesting story. That's why we kind of -- we talk about our objective in 5 years is to produce 200,000 ounces of gold and 5 million ounces of silver. That -- and 5 million ounces of silver is coming from that silver-centric part of the district.

Torbrit, Dolly Varden and New Wolf discovery. Now we're drilling in some really exciting stuff right now, and I'll -- I can't say much more, but you'll wait for the assays, and they'll be out within a month here.

Bianca Pisciola

Excellent. And Johnson Tract is getting a bit less airtime than the other assets right now, but there's real work happening this summer with bids in for road construction and helicopter support to connect the camp to the proposed portal site. What does the 2026 field season look like there? And where does Johnson Tract fit in the queue behind Lucky Shot and Kitsault?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. So yes, when you're permitting, that's always kind of the -- I call it the boring part of the Lassonde Curve. But -- so we're permitting, and that's moving part of FAST-41, and that's all moving along according to the schedule. And people can -- what I love about FAST-41 is it's transparent and the schedules on the Internet. So everybody can go and see. We have these reports due and we get those reports due and they have -- the agencies have so many days to review, and that's all happening according to schedule. So that's great.

But while they're doing that, we've been building roads and bridges. And -- so I'm actually heading out there next week, and we'll take some photos and some video, and we'll get that up on the Internet. And I'm really excited to walk across the Johnson River on the bridge. And I'll send you some photos.

Bianca Pisciola

Please.

J. Clark

And it's under budget, too, Rick.

Bianca Pisciola

Love that. That's great. I can't wait to see.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

The important point to me is because that's -- whenever -- if you look at construction projects, they have a habit of going over budget and taking longer than you plan. And I think the guys again, have just done a great job. The team out there has done a great job of getting it done. And Alegre and her environmental team have done a great job just working with agencies, keeping everything permitted. And there's still a lot of permitting to do while you're doing all this construction work, right? It's permitting -- you're never done permitting.

Bianca Pisciola

Absolutely. Mike, back over to you. Let's talk about the balance sheet. You ended the quarter with $89 million in cash. Repayments on the facility are just $2 million for the rest of this year and distributions from the JV should build as the South pit grades come through. You're funding three projects at once. How do you prioritize where the dollars go over the next 12 months?

J. Clark

Yes. Well, we forecast out the next kind of 3 to 4 years. But if you kind of just isolate over the next 12 months. We have $89 million in the bank as of June 30. We do have distributions coming from Manh Choh. And so with those, we have sufficient capital to advance all these three projects as planned. So it's just making sure that those -- each of those individual budgets stay within where we're currently sitting, then there's plenty of cash to fund those. You'll see the cash probably end the year around $45 million. But what you're -- and you'll probably see it dip to its lowest amount in kind of Q1 of next year. But then as we ramp up into '27 with Manh Choh, you're going to see the cash steadily increase while continuing to advance all those projects.

Bianca Pisciola

Very good. And Rick, let's close off today by asking a macro question. Gold appears to be making a come back yet again despite the feeble warnings of gold bears. What do you think about the macro setup for this year, up 10% in a month is no slouch?

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes. I mean, look, we talked about it earlier that we saw gold retrace down to the $4,000 level. It didn't seem to want to go down below $4,000 for any significant period of time. There was always a buyer. And then -- it turns out that those central -- same central banks that have been buying were buying again. And of course, led by China, but other banks as well.

So I think it's kind of the song remains the same sort of a scenario here. We keep printing money. The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard spot. We're still what, close to $40 trillion in debt, the U.S. and it's not just the U.S., all the other currency, all the other governments are in debt, too. And there's only -- gold is the commodity that -- or I should say, the currency that is no one's liability. So whereas when you keep printing money, at some point, somebody says, what are we doing here? So -- yes, gold is king, and we're unhedged. So we're going to see that upside delivered to our shareholders, which I think is the most important thing we've done this year.

Bianca Pisciola

Absolutely. Speaking of -- thank you, everyone, who joined today. If you have a question for the Contango team, and it's just occurring to you just now, please feel free to send them in. We will make sure that they get to the team. Big thank you to you, Rick and Mike for joining us today. Always a pleasure to have you on the platform and hear an update on the story.

But Rick, I'll pass it over to you for a final word.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Yes, if there's no other questions from audience. Look, I mean, we're pleased with where the company sits today, unhedged, 33 million shares outstanding, NYSE and Toronto listing. So good liquidity. I think if you're looking for exposure to the gold business, I encourage -- I've always encouraged people to look at it on a per share basis because as a shareholder, you own a part of the company and that leverage is what you want when you are making an investment in the gold space.

So -- yes, we're in a great spot. We're going to have a lot of news flow, a lot of catalysts coming our way in the next few weeks with Lucky Shot drill results, Kitsault drill results, some great photos of roads and bridges at Johnson Tract. And we're on the move. We're going to keep moving. So keep adding value for shareholders. That's our job, and that's our mission.

Bianca Pisciola

Fantastic. Thank you, guys, again. Have a lovely rest of your day.

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse

Thank you very much.

Bianca Pisciola

Thanks.