Canadian Dollar declines as rising US-Iran deal bets ease oil prices
- USD/CAD gains ground as commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices.
- The US Dollar gains despite growing speculation of a potential US-Iran deal.
- President Trump said that further strikes on Iran might not be necessary while keeping the US "locked and loaded."
USD/CAD inches higher after posting minor losses the previous day, trading around 1.4120 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair gains support as commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces challenges amid lower oil prices.
Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels since August amid optimism over diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East. Although regional attacks continue, US President Donald Trump indicated that further strikes on Iran might not be necessary while keeping the US "locked and loaded." Trump noted positive momentum toward ending the war, stating that Iran is "militarily, effectively over" and that the current status quo is being maintained largely at the request of neighboring nations.
The USD/CAD pair also appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground despite growing speculation of a potential deal between Washington and Tehran. Traders remain focused on the upcoming United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
US Headline CPI is expected to rise to 3.9% year-over-year from 3.7% in October, while core CPI is forecast to tick up to 2.8% from 2.6%. Following last week's Nonfarm Payrolls report, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the December meeting have strengthened, with the CME FedWatch Tool putting the odds at 84%, up from 76% a day ago.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted inflation risks within the central bank's mandate, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pointed out that accelerating services inflation complicates the idea that high prices are driven solely by tariffs.
Dollar support persists as Fed bias stays hawkish
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman observe that the Dollar has retraced part of its recent advance, noting that “USD pared back some of Friday’s strong October non-farm payrolls gains.” However, they stress that the broader backdrop remains constructive for the greenback, as “robust US economic activity, favorable labor market conditions and sticky underlying inflation back the Fed’s hawkish bias, keeping rate differentials supportive of USD.”
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
