万事达卡 (MA) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：营收增长14%，服务业务增长19%

万事达卡（Mastercard）2026年第三季度业绩说明会强调了收入和利润实现双位数增长、消费者和商业支出健康，以及增值服务的持续扩张。管理层维持了全年收入预期，同时指出部分服务项目和支付网络交易从第四季度提前到了第三季度。

核心要点

• 在非GAAP和按固定汇率计算的基础上，净收入同比增长14%。营业利润增长15%，净利润增长18%，每股收益（EPS）增长21%至5.31美元。
• 支付网络净收入增长11%，而增值服务与解决方案收入增长19%，并购和处置资产的影响极小。
• 全球总美元交易额增长7%。跨境交易额增长11%，已处理交易量增长9%，万事达卡和Maestro品牌卡片数量达到38亿张。
• 面对面已处理消费交易中，非接触式支付渗透率达到81%，同比提高5个百分点。
• 管理层预计，按固定汇率计算且不包括非有机业务活动，2026年全年净收入增长率将处于低双位数区间的上限。
• 万事达卡正通过 Agent Pay、Agent Connect、与 OpenAI 的合作以及整合 BVNK，向智能体商业和稳定币基础设施领域拓展。

关键财务数据

万事达卡在该季度回购了30亿美元股票，并在截至2026年10月26日期间又回购了6.48亿美元股票。

业务与运营表现

支付交易量保持韧性

美国总美元交易额增长6%，其中包括信用卡增长10%和借记卡增长1%。借记卡的结果受 Capital One 投资组合迁移的影响。在美国以外地区，总美元交易额增长8%，其中信用卡增长6%，借记卡增长10%。

境内服务费收入增长13%，而全球总美元交易额增长7%。管理层将这一差异主要归因于定价和结构组合。跨境服务费收入增长16%，而跨境交易额增长11%；交易处理服务费收入增长14%，而已处理交易量增长9%。

在10月的前三周，支出趋势与第三季度大致保持一致。随着万事达卡开始摆脱 Capital One 借记卡迁移的对比基数影响、受益于近期赢得的新商业项目以及汽油支出增加，美国已处理交易量环比改善。

增值服务实现更快增长

增值服务与解决方案收入增长19%。万事达卡表示，客户获取与互动、商业与营销服务、安全解决方案、数字服务、身份验证以及定价方面的需求推动了这一增长。

管理层表示，约60%的服务与支付网络挂钩。更活跃的支付活动创造了对服务的需求，而这些服务有助于体现万事达卡网络的差异化优势，并支持额外的交易量增长。

安全业务仍是关键增长领域。万事达卡新增或拓展了与标准银行（Standard Bank）、Monzo 和 Starling Bank 在反欺诈和身份验证方面的合作。其新推出的数字风险保护（Digital Risk Protection）产品在推向市场仅几个月后，就拥有了近800家企业客户。

网络扩张与商业拓展

万事达卡报告称全球受理商户网点已超过2亿个。2026年上半年商户受理网点同比增长20%。

该公司年内在七个市场签署了15个 Essential Debit 项目，为合作伙伴提供了覆盖多达7000万无银行账户成年人的工具。万事达卡还赢得了100个全新的富裕客户信用卡和借记卡项目，并推出了25个以上的 World Legend 项目。管理层指出，富裕阶层的支出增速是整体信用卡支出增速的两倍。

显着的合作协议包括与中国银行达成的个人借记卡协议、与 HDFC Bank 达成的预计将增加300万张卡片的小微企业协议，以及与 Pinnacle Financial Partners 达成的美国业务组合项目（计划于2027年开始迁移至万事达卡网络）。

在商业支付领域，万事达卡继续将虚拟卡融入应付账款和差旅工作流程中。管理层表示，本季度签署的与差旅相关的合作项目预计将在协议生命周期内产生超过200亿美元的增量网络支出。

智能体商业与数字资产

万事达卡将智能体商业描述为数字商业的下一次演进，同时承认其普及仍处于早期阶段。其方法以代币化支付、经过验证的智能体、买家意图透明化以及广泛的商户受理为中心。

Shopify 正通过 Shop Pay 使用 Agent Pay 和万事达卡网络代币。万事达卡还与 OpenAI 签署了战略合作伙伴关系，涵盖支付、联合服务增长以及人工智能转型。

管理层表示，一次性虚拟卡卡号可以在生态系统发展过程中作为临时过渡，但万事达卡并不认为它们是完全代币化智能体交易的长期替代方案。

在8月完成收购后，万事达卡也开始整合 BVNK。首款联合产品 Mastercard Global Money 旨在允许金融机构和金融科技公司提供可持有、兑换、发送和接收法定货币及稳定币的账户。管理层表示，由于该业务规模依然较小，BVNK 对第三季度收入增长的贡献极微。

管理层业绩指引

管理层指出，第三季度受益于服务项目和支付网络交易提前自第四季度兑现。预计第四季度将出现相应的抵消作用。

风险与关注事项

• 管理层提到了持续的地缘政治不确定性、能源价格上涨以及市场对全球货币政策关注度的提升。
• 由于欧盟推出新的海关关税、大型零售促销活动的时程安排以及加密货币购买量同比下降，收益率较低的欧洲内部跨境交易额环比有所放缓。
• 由于假期时间安排，10月初跨境旅游增长略有放缓，而中东冲突继续影响部分旅游客流。
• 第四季度的增长将面临第三季度提前确认收入所带来的抵消效应，以及以往定价措施基数效应的消退。
• 万事达卡预计，第四季度返利和激励措施占总服务费收入的比例将高于第三季度。
• 人工智能可以提高生产力并助力新产品开发，但管理层也强调，它也为诈骗者和欺诈者提供了新工具，从而增加了对反欺诈、身份验证和网络安全能力的需求。

分析师问答环节亮点

第三季度超预期表现与第四季度时点因素：管理层将第三季度的强劲表现归因于广泛的业务增长，尤其是增值服务领域。然而，部分服务工作和支付网络交易活动从第四季度提前到了第三季度，这为已报告季度带来了积极影响，并预计将在第四季度产生抵消效应。

跨境业务趋势：管理层表示，交易量增长11%和服务费收入增长16%依然强劲。环比放缓主要集中在收益率较低的欧洲内部业务上，并不反映基础支出的全面恶化。

定价：万事达卡重申其根据所提供的价值进行定价。第三季度受益于现有及新增的定价举措，不过部分贡献将在第四季度面临基数效应的对比。

印度及账户对账户竞争：管理层将印度描述为全球竞争最激烈的支付市场之一。万事达卡计划继续采取既合作又竞争的策略，同时重点关注那些从最初获得数字接入进而转向借记卡和信用卡产品的客户。与 HDFC Bank 达成的协议被强调为一项重要胜利。

2027年展望：万事达卡未提供正式的2027年业绩指引。管理层表示，未来的增长将取决于宏观经济状况、客户的留存与拓展、对增值服务的需求、产品渗透率以及外汇波动性。

业绩说明会完整记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning. My name is Elodie and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mastercard Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Mr. Devin Corr, Head of Investor Relations, you may now begin your conference.

Devin Corr

Thank you, Elodie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. With me today are Michael Miebach, our Chief Executive Officer; and Ling Hai, our Chief Financial Officer. Following comments from Michael and Ling Hai, the operator will announce your opportunity to get into the queue for the Q&A session. It is only then that the queue will be open for your questions. You can access our earnings release, supplemental performance data and the slide deck that accompany this call in the Investor Relations section of our website, mastercard.com.

Additionally, the release was furnished with the SEC earlier this morning. Our comments today regarding our financial results will be on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis unless otherwise noted. Both the release and the slide deck include reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP reported amounts. Finally, as set forth in more detail in our earnings release, I would like to remind everyone that today's call will include forward-looking statements regarding Mastercard's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Information about the factors that could affect future performance are summarized at the end of our earnings release and in our recent SEC filings. A replay of the call will be posted on our website for 30 days. With that, I will now turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Michael Miebach.

Michael Miebach

Thank you, Devin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Three quarters into the year, our performance continues to demonstrate the strength and consistency of our business. Net revenue growth was up 14% and net income up 18% in the third quarter on a year-over-year non-GAAP currency-neutral basis. While there continues to be economic and geopolitical uncertainty, consumers continue to spend, businesses continue to invest and commerce continues to expand.

The economy, our overall business and our network have a resilient backdrop. At its core, our network helps people and businesses transact and participate in the economy, and our advantage here is clear: a diversified business, a trusted global network and the ability to help our customers grow. We're building on that advantage by expanding the reach and utility of our network.

We now have more than 200 million acceptance locations and EUR 300 million more digital access points around the world. That is unmatched. On a year-over-year basis, in the first half of 2026, merchant acceptance is up 20% and growing. This includes initiatives like our pay local program, which expands acceptance by embedding cars into local wallets and tap on phone, a smart acceptance solution. However, we're not only expanding how merchants accept payments, we're also finding valuable ways to get more Mastercard credentials to more people. that spans the full consumer spectrum from premium offerings for affluent consumers and business owners to products that give people their first access to the financial system.

There are huge numbers of financially underserved people around the world. Our new essential debit product builds on our long-standing work to help open the door to broader financial opportunities and economic resilience. We've signed 15 essential debit programs this year across 7 markets. These programs give our partners tools to address up to 70 million unbanked adults in those markets. This means more people have a new payment option or cards that offer protections and broad acceptance not offered by local payment options.

We're seeing early traction across a range of partners. These credentials are now issued with an [ Airtel's ] scaled mobile wallet ecosystem launching next quarter in Nigeria. And by [ Financo], which supports a large network of cooperative institutions in Ecuador. This year, we have already won 100 new affluent credit and debit programs and launched more than 25 world Legend programs. MasterCard affluent portfolios have higher engagement and higher cross-border spend.

In fact, our affluent spend is growing 2x faster than overall credit. This quarter, UBS launched a super premium invitation-only MasterCard credit product in Switzerland's highly competitive affluent market. It includes our concierge service and frequent traveler benefits. Core to our programs is making a real connection with people and offering a product that appeals to their needs. That focus on meeting new people where they are led to our new partnership and co-brand program with these industries.

This program spans consumer and small business creator cards. There's more than 1 billion followers across social media, Mr. Beast is 1 of the most influential creators in the world. But that work is not just about clicks. It's capturing the cultural power of digital communities and driving economic and social opportunity.

Together, we will connect creators and their communities in new ways, bringing Mastercard's scale and capabilities to the next generation as their financial lives evolve. What does all of this tell us, Mastercard products are in demand, and that demand continues to grow. More cards and more acceptance points drive more transactions and data, strengthening the power of our network and the value we deliver.

Across over 200 countries and territories, every market and region is unique, and we're winning, leveraging our global capabilities and that local expertise. Let's look at a few wins from this quarter. In the Nordics, we renewed our partnerships with [ Handelsbanken ] and [ Swedbank ], following a previously signed exclusive agreement with SEB. These wins include services like fraud detection and loyalty. strengthening our position in 1 of the most advanced digital payment markets.

At the same time, we renewed SKF indeed Setbank, 2 of Germany's largest banking organizations. Let's put that in context. These renewals deepen our relationships with 2 of the leading credit issuers in Europe's largest economy. They position us to capture the substantial secular opportunity in Germany. In China, our teams on the ground are very busy building and solidifying our position in the local market. This strong foundation for long-term growth is rooted in the growing acceptance and signing issuer deals to make Mastercard the preferred brand.

This includes new programs with China's top 15 issuers. This quarter, we added to that with the new World Hilton co-brand with Bank of Communications and a consumer debit deal with Bank of China, who alone serves hundreds of millions of retail customers. Two fantastic deals to capture domestic and cross-border spend and deliver value-add services and solutions in the market.

In the United States, we secured a major win with Pinnacle Financial Partners, the newly combined bank's entire issuing portfolio will move on to our network starting in 2027. This includes consumer credit, debit, small business and commercial cards. And finally, moving to India. With a large domestic scheme, this is 1 of the world's most competitive markets.

This quarter, we signed an important small business deal with HDFC Bank. It's India's largest private sector bank with nearly 10,000 branches over 100 million customers. This deal includes value-add services and solutions and is expected to add 3 million cards to the Mastercard network. Beyond small business, we see a sizable opportunity across commercial payments, including invoice payments.

Our work in invoice payments helps transform dated cumbersome accounts payable processes and to automate digital workflows with virtual cards. We focus on bringing more virtual cards to market and embed them directly into tools businesses already use. Tungsten Automation is adding Mastercard's virtual card technology into its automated accounts payable offerings, a leader in intelligent document processing constant serves more than 25,000 customers.

This will enable their enterprise customers to generate virtual cards seamlessly and that accelerates supplier payments, reducing cost, friction and risk. That is tangible value. And we've seen those results play out. For example, a large U.S. retailer consolidated more than $100 million in supplier payments using Mastercard virtual cards through our partner, Coupa.

This one decision reduced the number of suppliers that needed to be onboarded saving an estimated $35 million in onboarding costs as valuable savings for just 1 of their many clients and Coupa is 1 of many partners working with us on improving B2B supplier payments. There's similar value in the travel vertical, where today, we partner with 8 out of the 10 largest players to capture the secular opportunities. After that, our expanded relationship with checkout com in the UAE, and you have another channel to bring Mastercard virtual cards to travel businesses at scale. The aggregate of our travel-related wins from just this quarter is expected to generate more than $20 billion in incremental spend on our network over the lives of the agreements.

These wins reflect our differentiated capabilities that address specific customer needs but also create opportunities to deliver more value through value-added services and solutions. Now many of our services directly support growth in our payment network.

Our analytics, marketing, loyalty and consulting services helps clients acquire, engage and retain customers while building healthier portfolios and driving more payment activity. For example, through our strategic partnership with Qatar National Bank Group, we're deploying these capabilities across QNB's presence in more than 28 countries to strengthen customer relationships and drive growth.

And American Airlines is one of the industry's largest airline credit card programs. We are supporting customer acquisition for its refreshed premium offering, the Citi/AAdvantage Executive World Legend Mastercard. These capabilities powered by our data can deliver meaningful results across Mastercard marketing services campaigns on a global basis, our clients see an average incremental spend growth of 8 percentage points over the measurement period. As commerce becomes more digital and AI changes, elements of payments, our security solutions are becoming more relevant.

As a reminder, security solutions include fraud, identity and cybersecurity. Our portfolio is carefully designed to help our partners protect the ecosystem and we see demand across the board. This quarter, we added our extended fraud and identity wins with Standard Bank Monzo and Starling Bank. Starling, for example, extended its use of fraud rule manager, helping it respond faster to emerging attacks, reduce false declines and protect the customer experience at scale.

Within cybersecurity, we continue to scale one-to-one platform sales, but even more so new network products like our newly launched digital risk protection. This capability helps organizations identify vulnerabilities in their own digital environments. After only a few months in market, it now serves nearly 800 enterprise customers. Additionally, our enhanced third-party risk offering brings together risk recon or recorded future capabilities in one solution. to help identify, prioritize and respond to risks before they become business disruptions. But AI is not only changing the demand for our security solutions, it is also changing how commerce happens. The foundation I described earlier, broad participation, global acceptance and trusted capabilities positions us to help shape the next evolution of commerce. That includes the genetic commerce, where a buyer uses AI agents to discover, select and purchase a product or service.

There are two forms, machine-to-machine and traditional e-commerce. Combined, they create significant opportunity for Mastercard from more transactions to new B2B carded payments as businesses utilize agents. And eventually, an entirely new addressable market of micro transactions, all the while creating more opportunity for our services from fraud to longer-term potential in insights and loyalty.

Consumers are already beginning to use agents to discover and purchase products. We expect that trend to build as holiday shopping ramps up and to continue well beyond the season. It is still early days and the numbers are not yet significant in the grand scheme, but as the AI and genetic assistance have emerged, genetic transactions are ramping up at impressive weekly growth rates. We're now seeing the early stages of consumer adoption. For this type of agent ecommerce to function at scale, we need four things: trust in the payment, the agent, the ecosystem and ubiquitous reach. Mastercard has built capabilities for each of these four for trust in the payment, tokenization is embedded in agent pay and backed by the franchise rules everyone expects today, for trust in the agent Agent Pay ensures agents are verified and authorized by the buyer and that the merchant and issuer are aware.

For trust in the ecosystem, we bring transparency and continuity through the payment flow. Verifiable intent captures the buyer intent, and our recently launched AgenticTrust Intelligence solution helps banks and merchants evaluate transactions initiated by any AI agent. And that allows these transactions to occur wherever MasterCard is accepted. That is the unparalleled and growing reach I talked about earlier.

At the same time, we are helping merchants ready themselves and be more discoverable to agents with our new Agent Connect solution. Many partners are putting all of this into practice. For example, Shopify through Shop Pay is using agent pay in our network tokens to make agentic payments more secure and seamless by preserving the integrity of the consumers' credential end-to-end. Shop Pay is already available on multiple agent platforms with more to follow.

And with OpenAI, this quarter, we signed a broad strategic partnership and includes the use of agent pay and goes well beyond -- our agreement establishes collaboration across payments, joint services growth and AI transformation. And we cannot forget the other technology that is part of virtually every conversation, digital assets and stable coins.

Our customers and partners are continually thinking about how they might use the technology and their offerings to be useful, digital assets need to work with existing financial and commercial services. That means enabling customers to connect digital asset capabilities with the accounts, payment systems and money movement experiences already in use. That is why we acquired BVNK.

Through BVNK, we are expanding the infrastructure that connects stable coins with traditional payment and money movement experiences. Financial institutions and fintechs today struggle to offer both Fiat and Stablecoin accounts, creating the risk of customer deposits moving to competing stable coin accounts. Our first combined Mastercard BVNK product is the Mastercard Global Money platform. enables financial institutions and fintechs to offer accounts where customers can hold, convert, send and receive across fiat currencies and stable coins.

Mastercard Move is also integrated, bringing its 17 billion endpoints to the platform. This enables businesses to pay out stable coin balances directly into recipients, local bank accounts. Norway and Marketo will be among the first customers to integrate the platform with more partners to be announced soon. And all of this is complementary to our existing stable corn offerings such as crypto co-brands and stablecoin settlement.

So stepping back, the quarter demonstrates the breadth and consistency of our strategy. We're expanding the reach and utility of our network, solidifying differentiation. We continue to win important relationships and deepen those relationships with differentiated services, growing payments and protecting the ecosystem, and we are extending our trusted capabilities into agenetic commerce and digital assets. We're executing and delivering today while investing and solidifying our position for the future. And with that, I will turn it over for the very first time to Ling Hai.

Ling Hai

Thank you, Michael. Turning to Page 3, which shows our financial performance for the third quarter on a currency-neutral basis, excluding were applicable special items and the impact of gains and losses on our equity investments.

Net revenue was up 14%, reflecting continued growth in our payment network and our value-added services and solutions with minimal impact from acquisitions and dispositions -- these revenues were above our expectations, primarily due to the continued strength of our business and the timing of both services projects and payment network deals.

Operating expenses increased 12%, including a 1 ppt increase from acquisitions and dispositions and operating income was up 15%. The net income and EPS increased 18% and 21%, respectively, driven primarily by the strong operating income growth in the quarter. EPS was $5.31, and which includes a $0.16 contribution from share repurchases.

During the quarter, we repurchased $3 billion worth of stock and $648 million of additional stock through October 26 of this year. Now turning to Page 4, where I'll speak to the growth rates of our key volume drivers for the third quarter on a local currency basis. Worldwide gross dollar volume or GDV increased by 7% year-over-year. In the U.S., GDV increased 6% and with credit growth of 10% and debit growth of 1%, which includes the impact of the Capital One debit migration.

Outside of the U.S., GDV increased 8% and with credit growth of 6% and debit growth of 10%. Cross-border volume increased 11% globally for the quarter, reflecting continued growth in both travel and nontravel-related cross-border spending. Turning to Page 5. Switched transactions grew 9% year-over-year in Q3. And we continue to drive contactless penetration, which in Q3 stood at 81% of all in-person switched purchase transactions.

This is up 5 ppt since the same period last year. In addition, card growth was 5%. And Globally, there are now 3.8 billion Mastercard and Maestro branded cards issued. Turning to Slide 6 for a look into our net revenue growth rates for the third quarter discussed on a currency-neutral basis. Payment Network net revenue increased 11%, primarily driven by domestic and cross-border transaction volume growth as well as pricing. It also includes growth in rebates and incentives.

Value-added Services & Solutions net revenue increased 19%. This includes a minimum impact from acquisitions and dispositions and now reflects the contributions from BVNK. Excluding these impacts, the increase was driven primarily by growth in our underlying drivers, strong demand across consumer acquisition and engagement, business and marketing sites, security solutions as well as digital and authentication and finally, pricing.

Now let's turn to Page 7. And to discuss key metrics related to the payment network. Again, all growth rates are described on a currency-neutral basis, unless otherwise noted. Looking quickly at each key metric. Domestic assessments were up 13%, while worldwide GDV grew 7%. The 6 ppt difference is primarily driven by pricing and mix. Cross-border assessments increased 16%, while cross-border volumes increased 11%.

The 5 ppt difference is driven primarily by pricing in international markets and mix Transaction processing assessments were up 14%, while switched transactions grew 9%. The 5 ppt difference is primarily related to pricing and a favorable mix partially offset by lower revenue from FX volatility. Other network assessments were $285 million this quarter.

Moving on to Page 8. You can see that on a non-GAAP currency-neutral basis, excluding special items, total adjusted operating expenses increased 12%, including a 1 ppt increase from acquisitions and dispositions. The growth in operating expenses was primarily driven by spending to drive the execution of our strategic priorities, including product innovation, geographic expansion and continued investments in our technology.

Turning to Page 9. Let me comment on the operating metric trends for Q3 and the first 3 weeks of October. Starting with Q3, switched volume and transaction metrics are generally in line with Q2 and and remained strong. Of note, the sequential increase in the U.S. switched volume was primarily due to recent commercial wins. Looking at cross-border.

First, lower-yielding intra-Europe volumes were down sequentially from Q2 to Q3 driven by the impacts related to a new customs fee in the EU, timing of large retail promotional events and lower crypto purchases in the quarter compared to last year. These impacts on intra-Europe cross-border were the primary reasons for the decline in card not present ex travel sequentially and growth in higher-yielding other cross-border remained stable and slightly higher quarter-over-quarter.

As we look to the first 3 weeks of October, spend remains strong with metrics generally in line. A few points to note. In the U.S. switched volume improved sequentially as we begin to see the lapping of the Capital One debit migration, the lift from recent commercial wins and higher spend on gas.

As a reminder, the Capital One debit migration began towards the end of Q3 last year and continued through Q1 '26. Looking at cross-border. The sequential impacts remain predominantly intra-Europe. Growth in cross-border cardinal present ex travel continued to see the impact from two of the areas I noted earlier.

Notably, the customs fee and a tougher comp due to higher spend on crypto purchases last year. And the slight deceleration in cross-border travel was due to timing of holidays. Overall, underlying spend remains strong and consumers and businesses are spending. Turning to Page 10. I wanted to share our thoughts for the remainder of the year.

As mentioned, consumer and commercial spend was healthy in Q3 and so far into Q4. Our business fundamentals are strong, and we continue to deliver solid growth across both our payment network and value-added services and solutions. These results reflect our winning strategy, strength of our innovations diversification of our business and our relentless commitment to serving our customers.

This is all underpinned by a supportive macroeconomic environment with balanced labor markets strong household balance sheets and continued wage growth. To date, consumers and businesses have demonstrated resilience, but there is heightened geopolitical uncertainty, which has persisted for some time, driving energy prices higher and putting more focus on monetary policy around the world.

We will continue to monitor the situation just as we always do. Our outlook on growth for the remainder of the year continues to remain positive. So turning to our expectations. For the full year 2026, we expect net revenue growth to remain at the high end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity. As a reminder, in Q2 earnings, we told you that our expectations were higher in the range compared to earlier in the year.

Our full year remains in line with these expectations. We anticipate minimal impact from acquisitions and dispositions and a tailwind of approximately 1 ppt from foreign exchange. We also expect full year operating expenses growth to remain in line with previous expectations at the low double-digit range versus a year ago on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity.

We expect a minimal impact from acquisitions and dispositions and a headwind of 0.5 to 1 ppt from foreign exchange on a full year basis. As it relates to our expectations for the fourth quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the high end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity.

We expect minimum impact from acquisitions and dispositions and a headwind of approximately 1 ppt from foreign exchange primarily driven by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar over the past quarter. From an operating expense standpoint, we expect Q4 growth to be at the high end of low double digits range versus a year ago, again, on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity. We anticipate a 1 ppt drag from acquisitions and dispositions, while foreign exchange is forecasted to be a tailwind of approximately 0.5 ppt for the quarter.

On other income and expense, in Q4, we expect an expense of approximately $115 million. This excludes gains and losses on our equity investments. which are excluded from our non-GAAP metrics. And finally, we expect a non-GAAP tax rate in the range of 20% to 21% for both the full year and Q4. And with that, I will turn the call back over to Devin.

Devin Corr

Thank you. Elodie, you may now open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from the line of Harshita Rawat with Bernstein.

分析师问答

Harshita Rawat

Michael, I want to ask about agent commerce. A lot has been happening here, and it seems like there's a lot of patchwork of checkout options ranging from single-use virtual cards to wallets. My question is, how important it is for you that Mastercard agent opens are being used as opposed to wallets their virtual cards? And I know you have your own probability-based risk signals that agent pay now is be -- and how can you drive adoption for Mastercard agent today? I know you talked about Shop and OpenAI as well.

Michael Miebach

Thanks, Harshita. Good morning, everyone. So the -- this is an important question. So Agent e-commerce, first of all, we think is the next evolution of digital commerce. It is -- went through a year and a bit in terms of getting the ecosystem ready. There is agent payout there.

There are the solutions out there and you just ranged an additional -- you just listed an additional set of checkout ways that are out there. So the ecosystem is kind of balancing out. So when you think about what matters, what I said in my prepared remarks is the trust and the payment is key. The trust and the agent is key, the trust in the ecosystem is key. And generally reach is key.

So we think that, that matters to merchants, that matters to consumers. Altogether, I think this is the direction that the ecosystem is going into. So it's also true, though, that not everybody is ready at the same time. So there's a lot of patch work going on right now. And I wouldn't call that solutions as kind of patching towards what is the gold goal here. And the gold goal I just listed is you have protect the transaction that works in the same way as consumers are used to and merchants are used to. So 1 of the things that need to happen for this to really take off is. Consumers need to feel comfortable so use of agent pay and having registered agent is a key thing.

And the other thing is merchants need to be actually discoverable because then the other side of the transaction isn't really working. So that's a piece that is slightly behind the first one. So if everybody uses agent pay, that doesn't mean that every merchant is still discoverable. And by the way, there are other solutions out there similar to agent pay, but it's not virtual cards.

So on the merchant discoverable side, so how do I get my product catalog as a merchant into an agentic experience that a consumer is choosing -- that's the key thing. So our Agent Connect solution helps to bridge that one. So we're kind of ready to take off. It is in everybody's best interest to use agent pay and equivalent we are not supporting solutions that take a onetime VCNs out there as fronting a transaction. that fundamentally breaks a transaction that is important from a consumer perspective. They made a choice. It's important from a rewards perspective, from a control perspective, so forth. So I think we're at this turning point where everybody is pushing in the same direction. We are very clear that fully tokenized all the way through AgenticPay or an equivalent is the way to go. If we get this all right, it will truly be the next evolution of digital commerce.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

Tien-Tsin Huang

Great results here. Welcome to the call. I wanted to ask on just the outperformance and growth for the quarter and the 2 points of acceleration in revenue growth, it seemed pretty broad-based, but just want to maybe if you just give us a little bit more detail on that, anything that was more onetime in nature, et cetera.

Ling Hai

Thank you, Tien-Tsin, for the question. Yes, if I look at the overall performance in Q3, it really speaks to the strength of the business, and it's very much broad-based, especially in value-added services and solutions. I do want to point out, as you probably heard in my prepared remarks, there is also a little bit timing of services projects and also the signing of deals moving from Q4 to Q3.

So that really means it is a revenue benefit for Q3 and you will see a similar offset in Q4. But overall, we continue to see strength the underlying business is very strong. Consumers and businesses are spending. The overall environment remains very supportive consumer sentiment is positive. So all those things are very good. But we also know there's uncertainty, there's puts and takes. But overall, Q3 is very strong, and we're very, very glad about the accomplishment.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Adam Frisch with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Adam Frisch

Cross-border is seller a little bit, still obviously strong, but I know there were some portfolio changes in recent quarters. So should we expect some modest acceleration there as you move forward and lap the comps? Or are there some underlying trends that are having a larger effect? And then, Michael, just a clarification. If there's a processor that is using a virtual card to facilitate a genetic transaction. So if I put my Mastercard in this particular wallet and they use a virtual card to facilitate the transaction. Are you not supporting that scenario?

Ling Hai

Thanks, Adam. Let me take the first part of the question first. First, after that, I would say, when you look at cross-border volume at 11%, that is very strong. And then not to also minimize the revenue side, cross-border assessment is 16% growth. So that's very strong performance. If we break it out a little bit, as you heard me talk about, if you look at the cross-border Cato president, excluding travel, you're seeing Q2, 20% going to 15%, but 15% is also very strong, and I provided the explanations for why we are seeing a little bit of a downward trend in terms of the volume.

And mostly, it's intra, which is lower yielding and the other cross-border volume, which is the intra volume remains very healthy, very resilient. Now as I have always said, we benefit from our diversification. So you can have impact hitting in 1 segment, 1 geography, but we can handle that because we're diversified and also benefit from upticks in other areas. A great example this year is we saw some negative impact out of the Middle East, the GCC countries but then we see this benefit in terms of outbound from Venezuela, right? So -- and in terms of where cross-border travel stands, I alluded to the fact that, yes, the Middle East conflict will continues to have an impact. But as we look at the balance of the year, as we've told you before, we are expecting a level that's similar to the end of Q2, and that's what we see in Q3.

So I think about the Middle East conflict. I think about the share shifts you mentioned both the discrete and do not represent any fundamental change to our proposition. I think the underlying spend remains strong, and we're very focused on driving cross-border travel. We have those services that's called optimization, travel rewards. So we'll continue to do that. So what's important to note is that we will continue to be focused on giving our consumers the right propositions for cross-border, whether it's travel or on travel.

Michael Miebach

And Adam, to your clarification question on Gentex. So let me -- let me be very clear. What we're not supporting is VCN as a solution in between that is not the consumer scenario that actually you asked. You said, if you put your card somewhere into an agent as an agent first solution or whatever it is, do what they do and that's their choice, and we try to get the many choices to choose Mastercard.

VCN is a processor decision that is a bridge to get ready for a fully tokenized transaction all the way through for a period of time. We are cognizant that this ecosystem needs to get there. No question about it, but that's not a long-term solution that we will support.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Andrew Schmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Andrew Schmidt

Maybe we could just touch on the competitive environment in in developing markets like India and Brazil, where there are entrenched A2A systems the DFC deal sort of peaked my interest. But there's been some interesting developments there. UPI pricing has increased. It seems like the markets might be broadening out a little bit. But if you could just talk about positioning, any changes there, that would be helpful.

Michael Miebach

All right. Thank you for your question. So let me just frame up the payment ecosystem to start with, super competitive, and there's nothing new there. So it's been competitive for some time. And you have these wide ranges of competitors that are coming in into payments and seeing the potential that we are seeing.

So if I go through some categories because -- before I find my way all the way to India, digital players, wallets, buy now, pay later providers have come in and Indian found a way to partner because we provide scale and protections and so forth. So that's 1 angle on how we deal with how we partner with new entrants. Stablecoin has been another kind of shift in the ecosystem.

We've integrated that into our system to make that is available because we believe in consumer choice. And we partner with governments and central banks around the world, and we do that on financial inclusion. We do that in protecting their economies. There are so many ways on how we're engaged in these 220 countries and territories around the world.

Now you mentioned India, in particular, India is a somewhat unique situation but not totally unique. You could draw some comparison to Brazil as well. where there's 2 large economies that had 1 particular issue that wasn't solved by the private sector, and that was financial inclusion with very large population sets where people don't have access. I talked about this in my prepared remarks that we, as the private sector and Mastercard in particular, is very focused on financial inclusion. So we are driving that. Now -- but it is true that in India, 1 of the most competitive and dynamic payments markets in the world.

The Indian government has led the setup of UPI, which is a tremendous system and has brought a lot of people into the financial ecosystem, which is generally fantastic. This has grown to considerable scale. But if we go by reports, there are reports that are saying that the government is considering the kind of owners of UPI are considering to have some additional fees in there that will -- presumably, I mean, I can't talk for them, but it's really the interest of taking this amazing ecosystem that they have built and continue to fund it in a way that works for all parties. -- as it continues to grow.

So that is a decision that we fundamentally welcome. We continue to engage in India very effectively with the government, with the private sector. we have meanwhile spent the time to strengthen our debit proposition, which competes in the market. But fundamentally, I see what UPI has done is bringing a funnel of people into the digital ecosystem that will grow and they will grow, they will graduate to different sets of products, which will include debt and eventually credit. So there is so much opportunity in India as well as in Brazil where we essentially pursue the same strategy.

So it's partner and compete. It's a market where we are open to compete, same for Brazil, and that is kind of the key aspect for that. So overall, I think no news on the India front, but the HDFC deal is news. So winning with the largest private sector bank in India is fundamentally something we're very excited about. So we continue to lean in.

Operator

Question is from Darrin Peller with Wolfe Research.

Darrin Peller

Just maybe when we look at VAS, and again, I know there were some onetime or near-term items, but the overall strength is consistent. And so maybe just touch again on the key drivers honing in a little bit on cyber, and what you're seeing there? I know recorded future has had some really good success with a lot of governments that are maybe even incremental to just payments offerings. So can you help us expand on what that could mean for the overall business going forward?

And then just a quick question on the puts and takes for Q4, if you don't mind, just if you could quickly just give us a sense, when we know comps get a little bit easier, the Capital One conversion started and pricing continues to be strong for our checks for fourth quarter. So what are the puts and takes on guide for Q4?

Ling Hai

Okay. Well, let me start with the color on the financials first. So Darren, you're absolutely right. Broad-based strength in value-added services -- if I think about where the strength and the durability come from, I think about the following. First of all, as we have told you, 60% of our services are network linked. So the drivers themselves create a tailwind.

So that ability to have payment volume where we can then apply services and the services then create the differentiation. That's the flywheel effect, and we're very proud of this business model. Secondly, if I look at services, just if I think about existing services, there's room for further penetrating our existing customer base, right?

So if we have a very disciplined approach in terms of cross-sell, upsell in terms of looking at our customer base and where the penetration gap is. And the third 1 I would say is, you mentioned it, room for new services in cyber, in the new world of Gentek or the evolution towards that. And by the way, I don't think Gentech is going to be the only mode of commerce. It is going to be multimodal.

So therefore, have to be versatile and cut across all these different modes, whether it's in-person transactions, online and genetic down the world, they're going to all coexist and that speaks to the versatility of the network and our services can apply across the board. And cyber is a big issue. AI will create more vulnerabilities.

And therefore, will need to come up with the best solutions to help our customers and consumers -- customers safeguard the network, but and their systems and the consumers to safeguard their well. So fundamentally, those are the things that are driving. Before I hand over to Michael, you also asked about the Q4 guidance and the puts and takes.

I would say -- again, I talked about the timing of revenue. So you see a little bit acceleration and services play a big role because we accelerated a lot of the services projects in Q3. And therefore, accordingly, you're going to see an offset in Q4 Michael, please?

Darrin Peller

Yes, you gave a very holistic answer. I just want to kind of remind everybody. So this situation where AI is not only driving productivity upside and is fueling new products for us, but it is also unfortunately a tool in the hand of fraudsters and scammers and so forth. So that's -- that's a situation that is fairly new. What is not new is that we stepped into the security market like a decade ago. So we are very deeply invested in base. And this has been a significant contributor to our growth rate for the past decade. So overall, that business was initially a fraud related, and we expanded into identity and now we're in cybersecurity in a significant way, and I talked about that in the prepared remarks.

Ling Hai

We -- I don't want to take too much credit, but our recorded future kind of looked ahead and say, in this kind of a world where the threats are coming from all sides, it is so critical for us to provide threat intelligence to people because nobody can really defend themselves against all these risks. So if you knew with higher probability where your risk is going to be, particularly on the payment side and the fraud side, what are the compromised cards, et cetera. So has been a long arc for us, and it just meets the moment, but that business has been growing very fast all the time. So we're not expecting a significant kind of jump from 1 day to the other. So all of this is kind of playing out at the right time and as predicted and expected for us.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Will Nance with Goldman Sachs.

William Nance

I heard some of the commentary on some of the entry Europe volumes -- and I was just wondering if you could kind of take a step back, talk holistically about what you're seeing around the European consumer. -- peeling back some of the noise, there's been a lot of focus on energy shocks. -- when you take out some of the discrete impacts, how are you kind of feeling about the trajectory of consumer spending there. Appreciate it.

Michael Miebach

Thank you, Will. I'll take this one. So of course, before this job, I also oversaw Europe, it's a very important market for Mastercard, very sizable I would say, if I take a look at the macro environment right now, the European consumers are very resilient. That's probably the best description. And the other thing that I would say is I see in our own business, in the payment business, we see a lot of innovation. That innovation comes from our customers, whether the banks, the fintechs, the digital players, but also our teams on the ground, right?

And that is going to be a very important driver in terms of our growth. To your specific question about intra-Europe, I talk about the reasons, right? -- nothing structural. It's more about timing and comparisons. And -- but I think overall, we see the market being stable and consistent right now. We've got some shift. But we will continue to win deals in this market as well. And we are seeing tremendous success in value-added services and solutions. Europe is probably a standout on this front. So that's also very important for us to achieve that sustainability.

And I can add 1 point. I think it's important to remind us when we look across Europe, very evolved economies, but it's still also true that at the same time, you still have a significant secular opportunity, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks earlier.

So DVSK Faranak are just 2 big wins that are going to help us eat into that secular opportunity in parts of rural Germany, for example. So -- it's not just about spend. It's also about the secular opportunity and the tools that Ling hai referred to are going to help us to go after that in many different ways, including our real-time payment position in Europe and our services and our care propositions.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Timothy Chiodo with UBS.

Timothy Chiodo

Great. I also want to touch on some of the mechanics around the genetic commerce. So appreciating that we're moving past the onetime use virtual card at some point and moving more towards the long term of Agentic network tokens.

Specifically, I'd like to dig into some of the steps for merchant readiness -- you mentioned earlier some of the discoverability aspect, and I totally appreciate that. But I want to focus a little bit more on the ability to accept a network token and some of the work that's being done by either merchant acquirers or the merchants themselves to be ready for that? And whether or not the standard website can be that acceptance tool or if separate endpoints might be needed in certain cases, any of that mechanic and the progress being made there would be much appreciated.

Michael Miebach

Right. It's -- Tim, this is a wide, wide spectrum on kind of where merchants are on that to take a small business that is just has moved from a physical-only business to having some sort of digital component of their business, they're going to need all the help they can get to set that up and you take a large merchant.

They're going to probably consider a first merchant first genic agent experience themselves in putting their own agent out there, so -- and everything in between. So -- the community of PSCs and ISVs and processors are going to be absolutely critical to cater to all of that. We will -- with our solutions, agenetic Pay, Agent Connect, et cetera, what we're solving for is that the individual merchant will not have to go with 1 solution for 1 partner with some other solution for some other partners because we're going to be that interface with a lot of that. So that's kind of where we are.

There's a lot of details and nitty gritties in that our Chief Digital Officer, Jorn loves talking about this in all the detail that you want. But currently, that is the situation. So we are covering the base that we can cover as a network, and we're engaging the processor community ensure that things like VCNs are only a bridge because that's not a good long-term solution. But some of these issues that you highlighted, Tim, need to be addressed because otherwise, it's not going to take off, and we believe it will take off.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

Sanjay Sakhrani

I guess, Michael, it's been 3 months since the BVNK NK acquisition. -- and the stable coin ecosystem continues to evolve. And I know there's a lot also happening with Gentek as well. So I'm just curious like what your observations are with BVNK -- do you think the opportunity is sort of moving forward, any learnings? And obviously, any other types of deals you might do in the space.

Michael Miebach

Right. Thanks, Sanjay. Always good to hear your voice. So BVNK, it closed between the last call and this call. So that's the first big piece. And we are very happy that it closed -- we're getting really strong out of the gate from day 1 the joint new product that I referred to in my prepared remarks, the Global Money account is out there. So that takes our capabilities on the MasterCard side, our global reach, and it takes the stable coin capabilities of send, receive store, convert and puts it all together to enable our customers to choose between and funds on the other side for our customers other. So.

Sanjay Sakhrani

Tremendous product, very good, great in demand. So this is really good. This just came at the perfect time on where the ecosystem is going.

Michael Miebach

NK, if I just go a step back and say, what are they doing for us? What is in its simplest form, the reason for them to join us. And here, it is really providing that choice between and all these capabilities and receive, convert in store, that's very much it. But there are some other reasons for choosing BVNK and not choosing to build this our own. One is they have the full licensing footprint that is needed and then have a very established compliance function. So if you do all the send and receive that you want, we want to like a short that is totally fully compliant, very visible, easily manage 2 of our customers, and then we are very reliable taking that responsibility on that's the piece. And the other is really the native talent in the digital asset space. So we now have a set of colleagues. So we just had our global leadership meeting and they were there. And you just see a very different mindset coming into Mastercard, which is excellent.

So all those new product is out a different mindset is in compliance is ready and we're out in the market. and we're seeing great demand as this is very straightforward for our customers to say, all right, I want to somehow -- and let's take a bank. I have really no conversation with the bank CEO where this topic doesn't come up. What should I be doing into dental asset space?

Obviously, there's a bunch of banks who are very clear what they want to do, but there are many others who are not very clear and asking us the question. our crypto consulting team comes in. And of course, with BVNK, we can now not only offer consulting but also cover a set of solutions, so people come in, and it's kind of an on-behalf service that BVNK provides a long money move capabilities that they have, but it's not just about stable coins.

So they want to choose. For my customer, that is a buyer in the United States and is importing from somewhere in Asia, what is the best way to send this money. And they might choose stable points and they might just choose something else, and we have all the rails together. So comes at the perfect moment. BVNK bringing everything that we're looking for, but it's early days. We just closed in August, so we're 2 months in. integration goes well, that's a nonissue. So we're ready to go.

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Trevor Williams with FT Partners.

Trevor Williams

I wanted to ask on pricing. I think it was called out as a driver across pretty much every revenue line in the quarter. So just be helpful to hear how sustainable do you think this level of contribution from pricing is -- and then just to clarify on the VAS growth in Q3. I know M&A was not material to total company growth, but how much of an impact BVNK had on the vast growth rate in Q3 would be helpful.

Ling Hai

Thank you. So first of all, regarding pricing, -- as we have told you before, we price for value. So we will always look for opportunities to price because we deliver value. and token pricing is probably a good example for me to illustrate this point. I feel -- like I said before, from a vast perspective, especially you have more room for penetration. You have new functionalities you can build, especially in the world of genteq, as you see, we're using MDASasthe platform to enhance our token for the Gentek world. And of course, there will be new use cases. So I think that ability for us to further penetrate existing customers create new use cases and penetrate new verticals is there and will price for the value we deliver.

So that's going to be the first point. And of course, our pricing in Q3 has a component of previous pricing but also some new pricing. -- we will expect some lapping of the pricing as we head into Q4. But again, we will continue to look for opportunities. You asked about VAS and the impact from M&A. So I would say as far as BVK is concerned, the impact is really minimum. It is a revenue-generating enterprise on but it's off a small base.

Operator

Your next question is from Fahed Kunwar with Rothschild & Co.

Fahed Kunwar

Could I just get an update on incentives. I think we talked about it last quarter being broadly stable sorry, slightly higher and it came in so stable. Was there any deal planning affecting incentives? Can we expect any of the Q3 impact you thought would happen going into -- any sense of how large of your meal cycle as the at going into 2020? Thanks.

Ling Hai

Thank you, Fahed for the question. Let me take this one. Well, look, I have a tendency to call this contract, but it's rebates on incentives. -- well, this contract revenue is a reflection of our solid young momentum. If that goes down, sometimes I worry about it. So that's 1 thing to keep in mind because the deals are what drive our business growth. And we have not given guidance for 2026, so I'm not going to do that. But -- as a reminder though, we use rebates and incentives to drive volume and transactions the network.

I'm just going to reiterate my flywheel point. You get the volume that we deliver services on the volume and then the services in turn become the differentiation that will drive even more volumes. So we'll continue to do that. And we have been winning -- we have been winning deals and with new customers and expanding our customers and in terms of our deal base. And -- but we've been very disciplined. We've been very disciplined and in terms of how -- what deals we want to win, what deals we want to walk away. We're not just going to win every deal, and we're not going to do that. We don't want to do that.

We're going to win deals that gives us a higher growth momentum that's accretive to the growth trajectory. We're going to win deals that are additive to the cross-border flows, and we're going to win deals that will allow us to deliver services as well. So the punch line is we will use R&I as a tool to drive the growth momentum and the growth algorithm. Now at the end of the day, I also want to remind everybody, we measure ourselves on driving net revenue growth and expanding overall net revenue yield, right?

So R&I, in my mind, is the input but the ultimate measurement should be net revenue yield. I also want to maybe take this moment to mention that for Q4, we would expect our rebates and incentives as a percent of growth assessments to be higher than Q3.

Operator

Your last question will be from Dan Dolev with Mizuho.

Dan Dolev

I just had a question. I know you're not giving any formal guidance for 2017, but maybe given the strong exit rates that you've highlighted, like anything that we should keep in mind, especially as we're lapping things in 2026, I think it will be very useful for investors. Any puts and takes on the growth and what we should expect and congrats again on great results.

Ling Hai

Yes. Okay. Let me also then very nice to talk to you, but let me take this 1 as well. I also maybe want to quickly clarify, when I talk about guidance previously in my answer, I'm talking specifically about rebates and incentives. It's not so much 26 versus 27%. So it is rebates and incentives, which we don't guide. But for 27, I guess, Dan, maybe the first answer is we're going to give our formal guidance in our next quarter's release. So please stay tuned. We will get into the detailed discussion. Now remember, there are so many puts and takes in our business throughout the year.

And there are just so many different factors that -- so sometimes it's really hard to say, hard to predict. The macro environment can play a wins and losses can play a role. Demand for our VAS can play a role, right? We have to continue to develop new things and drive new penetration. FX volatility, that's another factor. -- just so many other things. And the other thing I would say, yes, you're right, some of the headwinds can become tailwinds but some of the tailwinds can also become headwinds because of lapping. So there's all those things. So all I can say is we have a very strong business model. We have a very diversified business model. We are optimistic about the future. But do stay tuned for 2027. Thank you very much. Any comments?

Michael Miebach

Yes. And Dan, thanks for the question. That's a great question. And the call on. So thank you again for all of your questions and all your support in the past quarter, and we look to talk to you over the coming quarters as we engage -- all of these strong results, not possible without the amazing team at Mastercard.

So I want to thank all of our colleagues around the world. who make this happen every day. And I'm going to close this first call with Ling Hai. Thank you very much, and we'll speak to you next quarter. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending, and you may now disconnect.