Bowlero (LUCK) 2026财年第四季度业绩电话会议：2027财年EBITDA指引及资本支出下调

核心要点

• Bowlero公布2026财年营收为12.45亿美元，同比增长4%；调整后EBITDA为3.33亿美元。
• 全年同店销售额下降0.2%，较2025财年改善3.5个百分点。扣除加利福尼亚州后，同店销售额增长0.9%。
• 第四季度走势在6月份大幅放缓。受世界杯和NBA总决赛收视率上升影响，4月同店销售额基本持平，5月增长2%，6月则下降7%。
• 管理层预计2027财年调整后EBITDA为3.4亿至3.6亿美元，同店销售额增长1%至3%。
• 2026财年资本支出下降19%至1.14亿美元。2027财年预算为9000万美元，管理层的长远目标是在完成品牌重塑后将其降至7000万至8000万美元。
• 活动业务、联赛和水上乐园是核心增长重点。12月活动业务的积压订单增长10%，而去年同期为下降30%。

核心财务数据

业务与运营表现

活动业务在5月和6月恢复同店正增长，并在7月和8月保持正增长。管理层表示，自2023财年以来，该业务已流失约4000万美元的年收入，因此其复苏对于同店销售前景至关重要。12月份活动业务约占收入的40%。

Bowlero于7月1日对其活动业务平台进行了重组。全新的混合模式将大型企业客户和本地化客户分离开来，而呼叫中心负责处理12人以下的聚会。此举旨在为销售团队释放更多精力，以开展外呼拓客。

加利福尼亚州仍是表现最弱的区域，2026财年同店销售额下降4%，而公司其他地区的同店销售额增长约1%。管理层更换了该区域领导层，并正在重组该州的企业销售组织。加州的复苏预计将在很大程度上依赖于活动业务，但2027财年的预测中尚未包含好转因素。

得益于提价以及推出了Elite尊享季卡，水上乐园的人均消费增长了约15%至20%。人工成本下降了中单位数百分比。然而，阴冷和多雨天气导致入园人数减少，尤其是在洛杉矶Raging Waters和芝加哥附近的Raging Waves。

管理层目前在一定程度上将季卡视为天气保险，并计划更早开售季卡，同时平衡入园人数和定价。预计夏季水上乐园收益的约80%将落入截至9月的季度，该季度属于2027财年。

在业绩电话会召开时，保龄球业务的人工成本同比每月减少约100万美元。管理层预计，随着公司投资于员工及旨在推动收入增长的激励计划，该降本收益将趋于平缓。

营销支出从1700万美元增加至3000万美元，而季度曝光量从约7500万次增至3.5亿次。管理层表示用户互动低于预期，并计划采用更严格的投资回报门槛。作为该公司最大的IT项目，一套全新的CRM系统定于10月上线。

管理层业绩指引

鉴于宏观经济和天气的不确定性，管理层认为调整后EBITDA指引区间较为保守。公司预计6月的基数对比将受益于消除2026财年受到的世界杯干扰因素，而12月季度将是对重组后活动业务平台的重要检验。

Bowlero继续以30%至32%的长期调整后EBITDA利润率为目标。近期的利润率正受到较高的营销支出、系统投资以及水上乐园业务持续爬坡的影响。

公司计划在2027财年期间完成其剩余的Lucky Strike和AMF品牌重塑工作。一旦该周期结束，管理层预计年度资本支出将降至7000万至8000万美元。

风险与关注领域

• 天气仍是水上乐园业务波动的核心源头。管理层估计在所讨论的期间内，天气对乐园造成的额外影响约为300万至500万美元。
• 加利福尼亚州表现持续欠佳，其复苏在一定程度上取决于活动业务的持续改善。
• 市场营销提升了知名度，但互动不足，这为未来的支出水平和回报率带来了不确定性。
• 由于世界杯一直持续至7月19日，7月的同店销售额仍下降低单位数百分比。在电话会议召开时，8月的表现接近持平，但尚未明确转正。
• 2027财年业绩指引并未假设理想的天气状况或加州业务的完全复苏。

分析师问答环节要点

管理层表示，组合收入中约9亿美元来自2022年之前的物业，其四壁EBITDA利润率为42%；而疫情后收购、新建或投资的物业贡献了约3亿美元收入，利润率约为30%。改善后者对于实现长期利润率目标至关重要。

公司预计在2027财年出售约10处物业，主要是上市后扩张期收购的外围资产。其中仅有两到三处场馆被描述为EBITDA亏损。资产出售所得收益可用于助力去杠杆，管理层的目标是在6月前偿还循环贷款。

并购将是机会主义式的，而非主营优先事项。管理层专注于现有组合内的运营改善、EBITDA内生增长以及去杠杆化。

在算入辅助消费之前，保龄球联赛业务创造了约1.1亿至1.2亿美元的收入。鉴于联赛业务表现优于其他产品线，Bowlero正在对球道设备的可靠性、球道状况以及更高品质的球道油进行投资。

业绩电话会议完整记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Thank you. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us and welcome to the Bowlero Q4 2026 earnings conference call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Bobby Lavan, Chief Financial Officer. Bobby, please go ahead.

Bobby Lavan

Good morning to everyone on the call. This is Bobby Lavan, Bowlero's Chief Financial Officer. Welcome to our conference call to discuss Bowlero's fourth quarter 2026 earnings. Today, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the period ending June 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website. Joining me on the call today is Thomas Shannon, our Founder and Chief Executive Officer.

I would like to remind you that during today's conference call, we may make certain forward-looking statements about the company's performance. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore one should not place undue reliance on them. Forward-looking statements are also subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Additional information concerning factors could cause actual results to differ from those discussed in our forward-looking statements.

We should refer to the cautionary statements contained in our press release, as well as the risk factors contained in the company's filings with the SEC. Bowlero undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after today's call. Also during today's call, the company may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by SEC Regulation G. The GAAP financial measure is most directly comparable to each non-GAAP financial measure discussed, and the reconciliation of the differences between each non-GAAP financial measure and the comparable GAAP financial measure can be found on the company's website.

I will now turn the call over to Tom.

Thomas Shannon

Thanks, everyone, for joining today's call. Despite a weak consumer at the lower end of the K and general macro uncertainty, we finished fiscal 2026 with a same-store sales comp of -0.2%, a 3.5-point improvement over the prior year and our best comp performance since fiscal 2023. Total revenue grew 4% to $1.245 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $333 million, reflecting a year of deliberate investment in marketing and our water park platform, and in the technology and leadership that positioned us for fiscal 2027.

Had it not been for the World Cup and its record-breaking viewership and the conflict in the Middle East that drove consumer confidence to its lowest level in 70 years, our full-year comp would almost certainly have been positive. There are green shoots across the business, and they are broadening. Ex-California, the company comped up +0.9% for the year. Retail bowling and shoe revenue comped +2.9%. Leagues grew +3.6% and accelerated in each of the last 4 months. Food comped +8%. And events, 1 of our most important product lines, turned positive in May and June for the first time since 2024, and remained positive in July and August, its best stretch in years.

The fourth quarter started well. April was roughly flat, May swung to +2%, and we entered June with strong momentum. That momentum was disrupted by an extraordinary stretch of at-home sports viewership. On June 11, the most-watched World Cup in American television history kicked off on home soil for the first time in a generation. The July 19 World Cup final drew roughly 66 million viewers across platforms, the largest American television audience since the Super Bowl. Layered on top of that, the Knicks won their first NBA title in 53 years in the most-watched finals in 28 years, averaging more than 20 million viewers in 19 years in our largest market, with 33 million people watching the final game.

For 5 straight weeks, millions of consumers who would ordinarily be bowling on a Friday or Saturday night were watching sports from home. June comped -7% and pulled an otherwise positive quarter and year slightly into the negative. I want to be precise about what that was and what it was not. It was not a weakening consumer. As we have seen through every exogenous shock since I started this company, the consumer has a short memory and adjusts to new realities quickly. That is exactly what happened here. Our trends inflected the week after the final, and August is rebounding. It was a 1-time, 5-week programming event on home soil, and it does not repeat next summer.

California remains our weakest market, but it is trending better. We made meaningful upgrades to the operating team there, including replacing leadership, and we are overhauling our corporate sales organization in the state. As I outlined on our last call, the full earnings benefit of the cost actions we took beginning in mid-January would land in the fourth quarter, and that is exactly what happened. The second quarter's $6 million payroll overrun became a payroll tailwind in the fourth quarter and remained 1 in July.

We made significant advancements this year in analytics, pricing, leagues, and capital efficiency. And with AI, our data and insights into the business are accelerating, and our ability to optimize key functions like labor management. We reduced capital expenditures by 19% to $114 million from $141 million last year and $194 million 2 years ago. This is a reduction of $80 million in 2 years.

On marketing, not all of our spending delivered the ROI we expected. We doubled working media and gained significant awareness, but the creative did not generate enough intent. Going forward, our investments will be more targeted, more measurable, and held to a higher return threshold. In fiscal 2027, every marketing dollar needs to generate a return. Otherwise, we will consider reducing marketing as a percentage of revenue.

Water parks represented the largest operational change of our summer. A year ago, we directly managed 2 water parks. This summer, we directly managed 5, including Raging Waters Los Angeles, which we closed on in January for $45 million. We are in 5 really good markets with very strong positions. The largest water parks in North Carolina, Illinois, and California, and 2 very good parks in the Florida Panhandle. That is a step change in operating complexity, and the organization rose to it. Strategically, the season was about striking the right balance between price, attendance, and labor.

Across the water park portfolio, per capita spending is up double digits, and payroll is down mid-single digits as we staff to demand. Price and cost discipline held what weather took. And it is the same pattern the large regional park operators described in their calls this month. Attendance pressured by weather, per capita spending up, and the economics protected through revenue management. The weather impact was real and concentrated. Raging Waves, our 54-acre water park outside Chicago, saw attendance fall significantly against a June that ran cooler than normal with rainfall well above normal.

As I've said before, in this business, pricing has a lot less to do with demand than weather, and a water park cannot comp through a cold, wet summer month. We remain very bullish here. I described the water parks as a coiled spring. On a trailing 12-month basis through July, the water parks produced $56 million of revenue and $22 million of EBITDA, up from $23 million of revenue and $11 million of EBITDA in fiscal 2025. Roughly 80% of summer water park earnings land in our September quarter, which is in fiscal 2027.

The business is highly counter-cyclical and will only get better as we become more experienced operators in this business. The fixes for next season are simple. Sell season passes earlier to hedge out weather and further optimize price and admissions. We're very happy with our Boomers Parks, which are counter-seasonal, high-margin, and EBITDA positive in every period, delivering $11 million of EBITDA this year, nearly double the prior year.

Turning to guidance. For fiscal 2027, we expect adjusted EBITDA of $340 million to $360 million. We run a short-cycle business, and we do not give guidance blindly or optimistically. So we are deliberately guiding conservatively as we work through the year. Importantly, this range reflects prudence around the environment, not the trajectory of our plan. The consumer has already told us in August that they want what we sell, and the keys to this year will be events booking for December and a clean second half after more disturbances than we have ever seen historically.

Thank you. With that, let's turn it over to Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steven Wieczynski from Stifel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

分析师问答

Steven Wieczynski

Tom or Bobby, if we think about your guidance for this year, if we look at where the assumptions around margins, you guys are forecasting margins somewhere, I think it's a 27% number versus the 30% long-term target you laid out in the presentation. So, as we think about fiscal 2027, wondering what might be weighing a little bit there on that margin version versus your long-term goal. And I know you called out maybe some marketing initiatives and some other things in there as well, but any color around the margin target for this year versus the long-term target would be helpful.

Bobby Lavan

Yes. So we've spent a lot of time on this topic, and we added a slide to our investor deck that will show you that your $900 million of revenue of the portfolio runs at a 42% four-wall EBITDA margin. And all of that's the pre-2022 properties. And then there is $300 million that runs at 30%. And that's everything that we've invested in, built, or acquired post-COVID. And when you look at the math there, when we get that $300 million up, you get back to the 30%.

I think the 32% is a little bit harder to achieve in a world where we've taken marketing from 1% to 2.5% to 3% of revenue. I mean, that's just an automatic reduction in margin, but we're still very confident in the long-term 30% to 32%. We just want to be prudent with our guide this year as we invest in marketing, as we invest in systems, as we continue to ramp the water parks, making sure that the organizational structure is there. But ultimately, this continues to be a year we're pretty happy with the trajectory we're on.

Steven Wieczynski

Okay, got you. And then, Bobby, probably 1 for you as well, wondering maybe how we should think about same-store sales cadence for fiscal 2027. Tom's commentary around July and August were positive, that sounds good. So it sounds like the first quarter should be positive just based on maybe how September ends up, but any color around the last 3 quarters of the year in terms of how you guys are maybe, it's tough to forecast that, but what you guys are thinking from a same-store sales perspective, and then maybe anything from a headwind or tailwind for the last 3 quarters of the year as well that we should be thinking about?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so moving backwards, June was the worst month I've ever seen here. And so that is going to be a tailwind next year. We're not going to have the World Cup. And hopefully, the weather in Chicago is better. So June has some tailwinds. Last year, we had about $10 million of revenue hit from 2 different distinct snowstorms in the March quarter. And the weather is the weather, but ultimately those were very unique.

The quarter that I'm most focused on is our December quarter. We have completely restructured our events platform. Events, as we've talked about a lot, has been this $40 million top-line drawdown over the past 3 years. And that business has been positive for the past 4 months, but most importantly, going into the end of September last year, the December backlog was tracking down 30%. This year it's tracking up 10%. So we feel, and it's still early and that's on a lower base of events, but we're pretty happy with where events is going. And if the trajectory stays, the December quarter is going to be a proof of concept that we can execute on the initiative as we lay out.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Handler from Roth MKM. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Eric Handler

I wonder if we could dig in a little deeper on events. A while back you talked about how you were moving salespeople back into the facilities and there were various initiatives to get the local community to come in and tasting programs and everything. What's been going on there and how are you seeing the results from that?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so we are moving the business forward every day. On July 1, we announced a full restructure. We went to a hybrid model where we have a split of our inbound business between huge companies and localized companies. And then we have our call center, which used to be unique to individual centers, is now covering parties sub-12. So it's a very rebalanced structure where the team can focus on outbound.

And it's still early, but we're seeing the fruits of the labor there where we're developing clients. We had a client this week who was going to have a party in New York and their other offices grabbed on and had parties as well. So it's sort of everybody in the company was doing the same thing and really building that outbound structure. And so again, the $40 million that we've lost over the past 3 years, I think is very achievable to rebuild over the next few years.

Eric Handler

Great, that's helpful. And then digging in a little bit more on SG&A was up a good amount year-over-year and sequentially. How much of that was due to promotion of the water parks? What were the initiatives that didn't play out as expected, and what are some of the shifts that you're planning here?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, I mean, the biggest thing is we are releasing a new CRM in October. So those investments have been very heavy in the June and September quarters, and they'll be heavy in the September quarter. It's the largest IT initiative the company's ever had. So those just flow through SG&A. SG&A sequentially is flat to down.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Randal Konik from Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Randal Konik

Tom, in the press release and in your remarks on the quarter and the year, you talked about the capital expenditures coming down fairly dramatically from peak levels. And I think there was a point made that those will continue to be restrained going forward. Can you elaborate on that? Let's dig into that a little bit more and think about on a multi-year basis, how do you think through what you believe is appropriate levels of capital expenditure in the business? And then as you look to generate and accelerate more free cash flow, how are you thinking about deploying that? Where are we with share repurchases and so on and so forth? That'd be really helpful.

Thomas Shannon

Well, our CapEx budget for fiscal 2027 is $90 million. So it continues to trend meaningfully lower. In that number, we are finishing the remaining Lucky Strike rebrands and we are doing the AMF rebrands, most of which are already AMF, but not all. Some are transitioning from Bowlero brand or an independent brand to AMF. By the end of this fiscal year, I think we will have finished the rebrandings and we will only have 2 brands, which will make the marketing message much more focused and efficient, Lucky Strike and AMF.

There's been, in the last 2 years, a significant amount of CapEx spent to sort of catch up deferred maintenance in the water parks and the Boomers that we acquired. And that wasn't a surprise. That was part of the investment thesis. And we bought these assets at very attractive prices, but there was a reason and they needed to be refreshed. So we're meaningfully through that cycle. We're also just much more efficient. So we've really become very, very good at doing large CapEx projects like a roof replacement or parking lot replacement or HVAC upgrade for close to half or even less than we were paying historically by using national vendors with national contracts and all of that.

So I think ultimately CapEx, once we get through this rebranding cycle, we'll probably move into the $70 million to $80 million range. Again, we peaked at $194 million 2 years ago, down to $114 million in the last year and $90 million budgeted for this year. So a pretty good trajectory.

Randal Konik

Great, super helpful. Bobby, when you look at the guidance, slightly up on EBITDA at the midpoint. When you look at the different holdbacks you talked about, let's say this year in the World Cup, investment in marketing, the difficult weather impacting the water parks, the California business being subdued or down. Could you dimensionalize for us how impactful those items have been on the P&L, whether from a revenue perspective or an EBITDA perspective, to get some perspective of how potentially conservative this fiscal year guide could be for 2027?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so weather in the third quarter was $10 million. The World Cup was at least $7 million in June, if not $10 million in June. $10 million to $12 million. We were tracking in May very, like I was super happy. In May, we ended +2% and the momentum out of that was great. And then June 3 happened. And on June 3 was the first night of the Knicks championship. And we looked at the numbers the next day and we're like, wow, this does not bode well for the World Cup.

So it's at least $7 million, if not $12 million, because the World Cup did go until July 19. So you have, frankly, high single-digit, low double-digit comps the first few weeks of July. And then you had the water parks are about $3 million to $5 million of incremental weather, like there's always some weather. So all of those are there, that's what gives us confidence in a 1% to 3% comp this year. But if things go our way, it could be better. But weather is something that we've found is more volatile lately. So we're trying to not say everything's going to be perfect. So those numbers are partially de-risked in the 1% to 3%, but not fully de-risked.

Randal Konik

And maybe just finally, can you just give us a little bit more color on California in terms of reminding us how big of a contribution it is to the business, how difficult it's been over the last year or 2? You talked about changing leadership, sounds like things are getting substantially better, negative. So just unpack that a little bit more. And do you think California can turn positive this next fiscal year? And if so, what quarter would that be most likely to occur in?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so California comped -4% last year versus the rest of the company was +1%. So it's about 20% of the business. California is going to be driven by 2 things. Retail, which we keep talking about marketing. Marketing continues to get better, but I'm not going to say that that's going to be a key driver this year. California goes the way events go. If events continues momentum, I would expect California to turn, but we're not factoring that into our forecast this year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wold from B. Riley Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Eric Wold

First off, you mentioned, Bobby, a little bit on the parks in terms of trailing 12 months and the plan to sell season passes earlier to maybe hedge out the weather a little bit. Can you update us on the larger projects that are still at hand for the parks to be off-season to kind of what we could see next year from capital improvements and new offerings that weren't there this year, the way you think they could do?

Thomas Shannon

Hi, this is Tom Shannon. I'll take this 1. So, we didn't close on Raging Waters Los Angeles, which is our biggest park, until January. And we inherited a significant deficit in season passes as no season passes were really sold in the fall as the seller got ready to transact. The transaction was delayed because it required approval by LA County, which is the landlord for the park. And so the water parks were suboptimal, right? But we just acquired them and we just acquired the 2 biggest in the portfolio. So there's a lot of things that will be done better and certainly with more runway.

One of which is having more of a runway to sell season passes, at least in our 2 biggest water parks, but also there were some decisions made last year to open the Panhandle parks later in the year and to keep them open later, which is happening. And so some of the revenue deficit in Q4 of fiscal 2026 is a result of not having the 2 parks in the Panhandle open earlier, but they are going to go later. So let me just give you an interesting data point.

Big Kahuna's in Destin, Florida, has had a positive attendance comp in 25 out of the last 30 days, and Shipwreck Island in Panama City Beach has had a positive attendance comp in 19 out of the last 30 days. It's a long summer season and there were some pretty meaningful headwinds in the quarter that are not necessarily representative of the business as a whole, water park business, but even of the summer, because there's a lot of this revenue that we can make up and will and probably have made up already in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. So it's hard to look at this business on a snapshot basis, but I think that explains a little bit about what happened and a little bit about what's happened since the fiscal year ended.

With regard to CapEx, there are some semi-large projects that we like to do, I say semi-large on order of $5 million each, in Shipwreck Island and in Big Kahuna's. I doubt if either of those will be approved in time to do in fiscal 2027. So the CapEx in aggregate in the water parks will be pretty minimal, I would say, in all likelihood this fiscal year. And then in the following year, we'd like to do these 2 large slide towers that would have a lot of presence from the street and drive traffic, also increase the nature of the parks, broaden the audience a little bit. And so that $10 million, give or take, is likely to happen in fiscal 2028.

Eric Wold

Got it. And then secondly, if you update us on where you are with the labor efficiency moves, and you talked a little bit about towards the end of the year to the savings. How far along are you, what's been saved so far? How much more do you think you can pull out of the bowling centers? And how far have you taken those initiatives, as you know, the water parks and FECs?

Bobby Lavan

Yes. So let's separate water parks and FECs and bowling because water parks and FECs, we're still figuring out what's the optimal labor model. On bowling, we're running down $1 million year-over-year right now of savings a month. Our model assumes that that flattens out and that there's actually an inflationary adjustment on payroll as we invest in people, invest in bonuses deeper in the system that ultimately drive KPIs that drive revenue. But it's a tailwind today, but I would assume it moderates to flat to some investments that drive revenue throughout the rest of the year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Hamblin

So you guys are reducing your CapEx spend as you absorb some of these initiatives in the parks. I wanted to just understand in terms of thinking about the go-forward, you've done several acquisitions here over the last few years. And in terms of thinking about the go-forward strategy, there's been a lot to absorb, including the FECs, which have probably a slightly different business model and certainly investment needs. But just thinking about, should we expect here over the next year or 2 as you absorb these, that there may be a reduced need in terms of an acquisition strategy in total as you work on fine-tuning the operations for the water parks, or as you get through finishing the Lucky Strike conversions?

Thomas Shannon

Yes, that is accurate to say. We're still in the M&A game, but only opportunistically. We're not actively looking for deals because there is so much opportunity to optimize the existing portfolio. But I want to be very clear that we view the water park and FEC acquisitions as extremely good. Even when the year is not ideal, we're still in these for probably 6.5x to 7x. They are counter-seasonal. So we generated a lot of cash this summer that we wouldn't have otherwise.

Other than the last week of the month or first week of the month when rent is paid or interest is paid, every week was cash flow positive on an operating basis, which we've never seen before. Because things slow down on the bowling side in the summer, but with the addition of these assets, we generate a lot of cash. And so we feel really, really good about them, but we are focused on 2 things: operational improvements, organic EBITDA growth, and effective de-levering.

Jeremy Hamblin

Got it. And then, Tom, you noted that you're going to very carefully look at marketing investments that are being made and looking for high ROI on those investments. I think, Bobby, you said you've gone from 1% marketing budget to 2% or 2.5%. Thinking about making those incremental investments, how are you viewing the channel of where you're spending on that? Do you feel like there's fine-tuning? And then how quickly do you get feedback on whether or not a particular marketing strategy has been effective or hitting the ROI that you're looking for?

Bobby Lavan

So, we raised spend from $17 million to $30 million. Our impressions went from about 75 million a quarter to 350 million a quarter, but our engagement rate is not good enough. And so we're super focused on not taking the person who has intent to buy and showing them our website more. We're focused on the people who don't necessarily have intent to bowl and getting them to want to bowl. And that is what we need to push this year.

The feedback loop is instantaneous at this point. We have a lot of data that is driving the engagement with our content. We continue to invest in content. And so ultimately, we need to convert the people who don't have intent to intent. And that's where the growth will come from. We are seeing very significant growth in our lane reservations platform, which is the tip of the spear and the bottom of the funnel. And we need to continue to bring people in there that have more intent, and that's how we're looking at it.

Jeremy Hamblin

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. In terms of your marketing spend, what portion of that spend is on your events business? It seems like that's quite a bit more volatile in general, but wondering what portion of your total marketing budget goes into the events portion of your business.

Bobby Lavan

Great question. It is none right now. So it is an opportunity.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Kupinski from NOBLE Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Michael Kupinski

I just got a little color around the water parks a little bit. I know that you said that you're looking for a higher per cap spending and improved labor efficiency. And I was just wondering if you can maybe quantify the expected incremental revenue and EBITDA contribution from the water parks in fiscal 2027, particularly in September, if you could just add a little bit more color there.

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so TTM EBITDA in June was $14 million. Then it became $22 million at the end of July. August is still not over. So August will drive that TTM to $26 million to $28 million. And then we'll have an incremental few million dollars more from September. One of the issues that Tom discussed is we do staff some of the water parks with J-1s, so these are international students who come in. Instead of them coming in in May, they came in for August and September. So we're testing pushing the season out, so there is a little bit of volatility in how we get in August and September, and that will also be dependent on the weather.

Michael Kupinski

Got you. And then you're mentioning about the opportunity on events. How significant is events to the overall same-store revenue opportunity? And if you could just give us some sense of how bookings are going through the fall and into the holiday periods.

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so events has been the entire comp decline over the past 3 years. We've quantified it's about $40 million that we had in 2023 that we don't have today. Ultimately, on top of the quantum, there is an element of events, corporate events during the week is very tip of the spear to traffic. Ultimately, if you go to a company event, you walk in, you have the wow factor of Lucky Strike, and you go, I'm bringing my kids this weekend. And so we've lost some of that over the past 3 years.

And our events business is a tiny percentage of the global or national events business. And so we just want to go out and get that business. From our perspective, December is our Super Bowl. Events becomes 40% of revenue in December. Last year, we were down the first 2 weeks of December. And so that business right now is tracking up.

Michael Kupinski

Got you. And if I can squeeze 1 more in, you have in the past discussed rationalizing the location portfolio as capital intensity comes down. I was just wondering how many of your locations would you characterize as underperforming? And then should investors expect a meaningful number of closures, sales, or other portfolio actions in fiscal 2027?

Thomas Shannon

Well, in 1 sense, you could say they all underperformed their potential. The number of centers that we have that are EBITDA negative is like maybe 2 or 3. One of which is a legacy property we inherited when we bought Lucky Strike that we sort of knew we were just going to exit at the end of the lease term, which is coming up in the next 15 months or so. I would estimate in this fiscal year, we'll probably shed on order of 10 properties. And most or all of these are properties that we acquired in the last 5 years after we went public and we had a flurry of M&A activity because there was a focus on unit count, which in retrospect was a mistake and a mistake that won't be repeated. So we're just rationalizing the portfolio. There won't be anything that I would characterize as seismic. It's really just getting rid of centers in markets where they're peripheral and they're more of a hassle to manage than they're really adequate to the portfolio.

Bobby Lavan

Yes, and we're very focused on leverage. And so if we have properties that on a four-wall basis, we can sell at an accretive leverage multiple. And when you boil it down and say, what does it cost to send the field there? What is IT support? What is insurance support? It's very accretive to our leverage position to sort of sell some of these fringe assets. And we've done a comprehensive review, looked at land values, go-dark values, and ultimately there is an ability to use asset sales to de-lever the business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Ian Zaffino

I just wanted to kind of pivot to the comment about the per caps, water parks. What basically is driving some of that core pricing power, maybe there, and then versus your other concepts, what's kind of being the differentiating factor there?

Thomas Shannon

Well, the per caps in the water park were up this year on order of 15% to 20% as a range. So we decided after last year, which was a pretty good year, that there were a lot of pricing opportunities. The season pass was simply too cheap last year in our view. And we took price. We introduced a super premium tier called Elite. And surprisingly, about 10% of the season passes sold were the Elite. So there was demand at the high end, certainly for that product, which was good. We de-emphasized the season pass this year, and we were successful in driving up per cap.

It was partially responsible for a decline in attendance, but our biggest water park in Los Angeles, it didn't reach 80 degrees there for the first month that it was open. And an air temp of 80 degrees is just not sufficient for a water park. The water temperature was frigid. So we lost, I don't know, I haven't done the math, but probably 60% of attendance, we were down probably 60% in that month. Now, it has rebounded, but 1 of the problems with having a slow start to the season is that is when it's most attractive for someone to buy a season pass because you get to amortize it over the rest of the summer. As you move through the summer, the season pass becomes relatively less attractive.

We now view season pass in a completely different way than we did 4 months ago. Four months ago, we viewed it really as a matter of pricing strategy and mix. We now view it as weather insurance. And so had it been a good weather season, we would look really, really smart for holding out of this premium price model. The problem is that you can't predict the weather. And if you have, in the case of Raging Waters Los Angeles, a slow start to the season, or at Raging Waves in Yorkville, Illinois, an abnormally cold, rainy summer, you need that built-in season pass revenue to reduce volatility. So this coming year will strike more of a balance between volume and price, and I think we'll get closer to optimal on that.

Ian Zaffino

Okay, thank you. And then just a follow-up. Bobby, I know you said the trends were improving since your decline, but what are we kind of looking at now? We backed at that 2% we saw in May. Is there any type of acceleration or any type of notable trends that you're seeing in July and August?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, so July, we're going to have to carry the first 2.5 weeks of the World Cup. So July was down low single digits. August is flattening out, but it's not fully there. Events is strong, leagues is strong. The school shift and the Labor Day shift is a little weird. So ultimately, this weekend will be very important whether August flips positive or negative. And so ultimately, we're more focused on the December quarter, but generally, we are expecting +1% to +3% throughout the year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Hargreaves from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

David Hargreaves

If we look at the 2027 guide, the $340 million to $360 million, can you give us an idea of how much the contribution from the water parks and Boomers will be in that number?

Bobby Lavan

Yes, water parks will be somewhere between $28 million and $33 million. That really comes down to how September plays out and how May and June next year play out. Boomers, which excludes Big Kahuna's, which came with Boomers, Boomers right now is $11 million of EBITDA, and with all the CapEx we put in there, that's anywhere between $10 million and $15 million in the next 12 months.

David Hargreaves

Got it. And then if we take the midpoint of the guidance, interest, I imagine tax payments will be negligible, and $90 million of CapEx, I think free cash flow should probably be around $50 million. I'm just wondering if that's a fair number to assume.

Bobby Lavan

That is a fair number to assume. That does not include any asset sales.

David Hargreaves

So about, okay, it doesn't include asset sales. About half of that we could assume maybe is debt repayment?

Bobby Lavan

The goal would be to pay down the revolver by June. So, yes.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Miller from Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Gregory Miller

I'd like to dive more into the performance if possible and your engagement with the players. I saw a press release inter-quarter that spoke about the decision to invest in lane conditioning and oil patterns. And I'm curious if that was driven by customer surveys and just how important that is to their satisfaction as league bowlers.

Thomas Shannon

I think machine reliability and lane conditions are critically important to the league bowlers, and we are super focused on that now. We've made some structural changes to be able to ensure better machine reliability. We've upgraded the quality of the oil in league-heavy houses. And we're keeping a very close eye on it through feedback that we get both directly and through social media. It's a big initiative. It coincides with a reinvigorated league business. The league business is outperforming all of our other business lines right now, and it's an important business unit. It's $110 million to $120 million before ancillary spend. And so we view it as a significant growth vector for us going forward, but we have to deliver the product.

Operator

Thanks. There are no further questions at this time, and we have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.