Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh quý 3 năm 2026 của Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR): Triển vọng năm 2027

Điểm nhấn chính

• Alpha Metallurgical Resources công bố EBITDA điều chỉnh quý 3/2026 đạt 29,4 triệu USD, tăng từ mức 25,6 triệu USD trong quý 2, khi sản lượng giao hàng tăng từ 3,5 triệu tấn lên 3,9 triệu tấn.
• Giá vốn bán than của mảng than luyện kim tăng từ 103,07 USD/tấn lên 106,93 USD/tấn so với quý trước, trong khi giá bán thực tế bình quân gia quyền đối với than luyện kim nhìn chung đi ngang ở mức 124,52 USD/tấn.
• Tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9, tổng thanh khoản cuối năm đạt 443,4 triệu USD, bao gồm 334,1 triệu USD tiền và các khoản tương đương tiền. Hạn mức tín dụng ABL không có dư nợ vay.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sản lượng giao hàng năm 2027 sẽ đạt từ 14,3 triệu đến 15,7 triệu tấn và giá vốn bán than từ 104 USD đến 110 USD/tấn.
• Alpha đã ký hợp đồng cung cấp 3,5 triệu tấn cho các khách hàng nội địa trong năm 2027 với mức giá cố định bình quân là 135,48 USD/tấn.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến máy đánh đống và bốc dỡ bị hư hại tại cảng DTA sẽ cần được thay thế, với thời gian ước tính khoảng hai năm. Công suất cảng thay thế dự kiến sẽ hỗ trợ các lô hàng theo kế hoạch, dù các yếu tố hậu cần vẫn là rào cản hạn chế khả năng tăng trưởng sản lượng đáng kể.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Than luyện kim xuất khẩu định giá theo các chỉ số Đại Tây Dương và các cơ chế khác đạt mức giá bán thực tế 107,03 USD/tấn, so với mức 109,08 USD trong quý 2. Than định giá theo các chỉ số Australia đạt mức giá bán thực tế 150,46 USD/tấn, tăng từ mức 143,82 USD.

Tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9, Alpha nắm giữ 334,1 triệu USD tiền và các khoản tương đương tiền, đồng thời có 184,3 triệu USD hạn mức tín dụng ABL chưa sử dụng, tuân theo yêu cầu thanh khoản tối thiểu 75 triệu USD. Hạn mức ABL không có dư nợ vay và có 40,7 triệu USD thư tín dụng đang lưu hành.

Hiệu quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Sản lượng giao hàng trong quý 3 đã cải thiện so với mức 3,6 triệu tấn trong quý 1 và 3,5 triệu tấn trong quý 2. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết áp lực chi phí tiếp tục ảnh hưởng đến kết quả kinh doanh, dù tốc độ lạm phát chi phí đầu vào đã hạ nhiệt.

Alpha đang chuyển dịch cơ cấu sản xuất sang tăng tỷ trọng than luyện kim low-vol và medium-vol, đồng thời giảm than high-vol. Mỏ Wildcat đang tăng sản lượng và dự kiến sẽ cung cấp thêm ít nhất vài trăm nghìn tấn than low-vol cho thị trường đường biển, dù các khách hàng nội địa cũng đã thể hiện sự quan tâm.

Các hợp đồng nội địa năm 2027 của công ty có quy mô 3,5 triệu tấn với mức giá cố định bình quân là 135,48 USD/tấn. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng than high-vol chiếm tỷ trọng lớn hơn trong cơ cấu phẩm cấp than nội địa năm 2027 so với năm 2026, ảnh hưởng đến giá hợp đồng bình quân.

Máy đánh đống và bốc dỡ SR1 bị hư hại tại cảng DTA dự kiến sẽ được thay thế thay vì sửa chữa. Ban lãnh đạo ước tính việc thiết kế riêng, kỹ thuật, chế tạo và lắp đặt có thể mất khoảng hai năm. Alpha có kế hoạch sử dụng công suất tại các cảng khác ở Hampton Roads trong thời gian tiến hành thay thế.

Định hướng của ban lãnh đạo

Định hướng chi phí SG&A không bao gồm các chi phí bất thường và thù lao bằng cổ phiếu phi tiền mặt. Các khoản góp vốn vào công ty liên kết bao gồm các khoản đóng góp bằng tiền mặt cho DTA.

Đối với năm 2026, 87% sản lượng than luyện kim đã được cam kết và chốt giá ở mức bình quân 126,69 USD/tấn tại điểm giữa của khoảng định hướng. 12% khác đã được cam kết nhưng chưa chốt giá. Sản lượng than nhiệt phụ phẩm đã được cam kết toàn bộ và chốt giá ở mức bình quân 76,06 USD/tấn.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Áp lực chi phí: Giá vốn bán than mảng than luyện kim đã tăng so với quý trước. Định hướng năm 2027 của ban lãnh đạo giả định giá dầu diesel nằm trong khoảng từ mức thấp đến mức giữa của vùng 5 USD/gallon.
• Sự gián đoạn tại DTA: Máy đánh đống và bốc dỡ bị hư hại có thể mất khoảng hai năm để thay thế. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến không có khoản chi phí vốn đáng kể nào liên quan, nhưng cho biết còn quá sớm để đánh giá chính xác thời điểm nhận bồi thường bảo hiểm.
• Năng lực hậu cần: Các cảng thay thế mang lại sự linh hoạt, song ban lãnh đạo cho biết không có nhiều dư địa tăng trưởng đáng kể vượt mức tốc độ sản xuất theo kế hoạch hiện tại. Việc hoàn thành các mục tiêu giao hàng đòi hỏi hiệu quả hoạt động ổn định của cảng và đường sắt.
• Biến động thị trường than: Ban lãnh đạo viện dẫn các cuộc xung đột địa chính trị, bối cảnh kinh tế toàn cầu và nhu cầu thép toàn cầu suy yếu là những yếu tố gây ra sự bất định.
• Biến động của các chỉ số: Chỉ số Australian Premium Low Vol đã giảm từ 272,10 USD/tấn vào ngày 30 tháng 9 xuống 262,20 USD tính đến ngày 5 tháng 11, trong khi biến động của các chỉ số Bờ Đông Hoa Kỳ có sự khác biệt tùy theo phẩm cấp than.

Điểm nhấn phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hầu hết các đợt tăng chi phí đầu vào đã được phản ánh vào cơ sở chi phí của Alpha, và công ty không kỳ vọng mức tăng đáng kể so với mức vận hành hiện tại trong năm 2027. Alpha tiêu thụ khoảng 20 triệu đến 22 triệu gallon dầu diesel trong toàn bộ hoạt động, khiến giá nhiên liệu trở thành yếu tố nhạy cảm chi phí quan trọng.

Về dư địa tăng sản lượng, ban lãnh đạo cho biết DTA vẫn là một rào cản dù công ty có thêm quyền tiếp cận các cảng xuất khẩu khác. Alpha hài lòng với tốc độ vận hành theo kế hoạch cho năm 2027 nhưng không nhận thấy dư địa tăng đáng kể vượt mức trần nếu không có hiệu quả hoạt động mạnh mẽ từ cảng và đường sắt.

Việc đẩy mạnh sản lượng của mỏ Wildcat dự kiến sẽ gia tăng nguồn cung than low-vol. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các quyết định thương mại sẽ tập trung vào lợi nhuận ròng thay vì việc doanh số có gắn cụ thể với các chỉ số của Australia hay Bờ Đông Hoa Kỳ hay không.

Về việc phân bổ vốn, Alpha tiếp tục đánh giá các giao dịch tiềm năng nhưng đòi hỏi sự hiệp đồng về mặt địa lý và phẩm cấp than, cũng như mang lại giá trị gia tăng về tài chính. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hiện có rất ít cơ hội đáp ứng được cả ba điều kiện này.

Chi tiêu phát triển theo kế hoạch năm 2027 bao gồm công tác hồ chứa bã thải tại Virginia hỗ trợ nhà máy tuyển than McClure và mỏ Deep Mine 41, các hạng mục tiềm năng tại nhà máy tuyển than Kepler phục vụ mỏ Road Fork 52, cùng một số công việc thăm dò hạn chế cho các dự án dài hạn hơn.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Emily O'Quinn, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. You may begin.

Emily O'Quinn

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Before we get started, let me remind you that during our prepared remarks, our comments regarding anticipated business and financial performance contain forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements and some of the factors that can affect them, please refer to the company's third quarter 2026 earnings release and the associated SEC filing. Please also see those documents for information about our use of non-GAAP measures and their reconciliation to GAAP measures.

On the call today, I'm joined by Alpha's Chief Executive Officer, Andy Eidson; and Chief Financial Officer, Todd Munsey, who will provide prepared remarks. Also participating on the call are our President and Chief Operating Officer, Jason Whitehead; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Dan Horn. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer questions.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Andy.

Charles Eidson

Thanks, Emily, and good morning, everyone. Today, we released our definitive third quarter financial results, which include adjusted EBITDA of $29.4 million and 3.9 million tons shipped. Our third quarter volumes improved compared to the first 2 quarters of the year, which were 3.6 million and 3.5 million tons, respectively. Cost pressures continue to influence our financial results, and we remain committed to managing these cost challenges and continually evaluating the portfolio against the needs of the metallurgical coal market.

Speaking of the market, we have completed our annual budgeting process that culminates in the operational guidance expectations we issued today. I'll let Todd cover those in detail, but it's important to note that our 2027 guidance reflects current expectations for the coming calendar year, which includes our analysis of potential financial impacts and 2027 terminal capabilities at DTA in Newport News. Following the storm-related damage that occurred in June, DTA management has worked diligently to keep operations moving and collaborate with the various parties about potential go-forward plans.

As a result of these conversations, DTA believes the stacker reclaimer referred to as SR1 will need to be replaced as opposed to repaired, and they've been in close contact with DTA's insurance provider about covering the replacement cost as well as potentially certain other expenses incurred due to the damage. As such, it's important to note that we do not anticipate significant capital outlays in association with the stacker reclaimer replacement process. As far as timing is concerned, a total replacement of the stacker reclaimer would be a fully custom build requiring specialized design, engineering, construction and installation.

Such work will likely require a lengthy time line, with current estimates in the 2-year ballpark. This is why we've worked so hard to establish a logistical framework that minimizes our disruption -- the disruption to our sales and logistics processes and allows us to keep coal moving to our customers while DTA addresses the damaged stacker reclaimer. This includes a plan to also utilize our throughput capacity at other Hampton Roads terminals in addition to DTA. As evidenced by our more normalized third quarter shipment volumes, we are optimistic about our ability to move all the tons we need to in 2027 and beyond.

As we look to next year, our guidance includes 3.5 million tons that we plan to sell to domestic customers in 2027 at an average price of $135.48 per ton. We're pleased to announce the results of the domestic negotiations, which are fixed-price annual contracts. Each year's negotiation is a little different depending on the market backdrop and a variety of factors. For example, high-vol made up a greater proportion of our 2027 domestic quality mix than in 2026, which influences the average price achieved for the total domestic book. All in all, we're pleased with these commitments, and we look forward to building the rest of our 2027 sales around opportunities in the seaborne market.

As usual, our teams are doing great work throughout the Alpha organization, and several operations have received recognition for their efforts. On the environmental front, our Paramont team in Virginia was recently honored with 3 Excellence in Mining awards from the Metallurgical Coal Producers Association. Virginia Energy also awarded them with 3 Safety Awards at their recent ceremony. Both of Alpha's mine rescue teams continue stacking wins as well, including first and second place finishes across many categories of competition in the National Mine Rescue contest that was held in August. We're extremely proud of our Paramont team that earned the top honor of National Grand Champion this year with a perfect score for the competition. These miners continually train, practice and challenge themselves so they're prepared to respond when their skills are needed. So congratulations to all those team members.

I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a review of our financial results for the third quarter.

Todd Munsey

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $29.4 million, up from $25.6 million in the second quarter. We sold 3.9 million tons in Q3, up from 3.5 million tons in Q2. Met segment realizations increased quarter-over-quarter with an average realization of $121.09 in the third quarter compared to $118.71 in the second quarter. Export Met tons priced against Atlantic indices and other pricing mechanisms in the third quarter realized $107.03 per ton, while export coal priced on the Australian indices realized $150.46 per ton.

These results are compared to realizations of $109.08 per ton and $143.82 per ton, respectively, in the second quarter. The realization for our metallurgical sales in the third quarter was a total weighted average of $124.52 per ton, roughly flat against the second quarter average of $124.30 per ton. Realizations in the incidental thermal portion of the Met segment were also essentially flat quarter-over-quarter at $79.44 per ton in Q3 compared to $79.36 per ton in Q2. Cost of coal sales for our Met segment increased to $106.93 per ton in the third quarter, up from $103.07 per ton in the second quarter. SG&A, excluding noncash stock compensation and nonrecurring items, increased to $15 million in the third quarter compared to $13.7 million in the second quarter.

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. As of September 30, we had $334.1 million in cash and cash equivalents as compared to $338.5 million of cash and short-term investments as of June 30. We had $184.3 million in unused availability under our ABL at the end of the third quarter, partially offset by a minimum required liquidity of $75 million. As of the end of September, Alpha had total liquidity of $443.4 million, down slightly from $447.8 million at the end of June. CapEx for the third quarter was $33.8 million, down from $45.1 million in Q2. Cash provided by operating activities was $46.9 million in the third quarter, up from $39.9 million in the second quarter. As of September 30, our ABL facility had no borrowings and $40.7 million of letters of credit outstanding.

Looking ahead, we issued 2027 operational guidance this morning. For sales volumes, we expect to ship between 13.1 million and 14.1 million metallurgical tons as well as another 1.2 million to 1.6 million tons of incidental thermal coal, bringing total 2027 shipment expectations to a range of 14.3 million to 15.7 million tons for the year. For 2027 cost of coal sales, we are guiding to a range of $104 to $110 per ton. Selling, general and administrative costs are expected to be between $53 million and $59 million in 2027, excluding nonrecurring expenses and noncash stock compensation. Idle expense is expected to be between $25 million and $33 million. We anticipate 2027 net cash interest income of between $2 million and $4 million and depreciation, depletion and amortization of $148 million to $162 million.

Capital expenditures, including carryover development and maintenance capital, are expected to be in the range of $145 million to $165 million. Contributions to equity affiliates are expected to be in the range of $28 million to $37 million, which include cash contributions for DTA. Lastly, we are projecting a 2027 cash tax rate of between 0% and 5%.

In terms of our committed position for 2026, at the midpoint of guidance, 87% of our metallurgical tonnage in the Met segment is committed and priced at an average price of $126.69. Another 12% of our Met tonnage for the year is committed, but not yet priced. The thermal byproduct portion of the Met segment is fully committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance at an average price of $76.06.

Coal markets remain subject to uncertainty and volatility resulting from geopolitical conflicts and global economic conditions. Improving indicators and manufacturing conditions across key Alpha markets suggest that economic conditions are stable with almost all in growth territory. While global steel demand remains weak, supply related factors such as mine closure announcements temporarily influenced metallurgical coal indices to rise toward the end of the third quarter with further volatility continuing after the quarter close.

The Australian Premium Low Vol index increased from $244 per metric ton on July 1 to $272.10 per metric ton on September 30. The U.S. East Coast Low Vol index rose from $190 per metric ton at the beginning of the quarter to $210 per metric ton by the end of September. The U.S. East Coast High Vol A index increased from $157 per metric ton at the start of the quarter to $195 per metric ton at the quarter's close. And the U.S. East Coast High Vol B index rose from $147 per metric ton to $170 per metric ton at the end of the quarter. Since then, the Australian Premium Low Vol index has decreased to $262.20 per metric ton as of November 5, representing a drop of roughly 4% since quarter close.

U.S. East Coast Low Vol is unchanged from quarter close, at $210 per ton. U.S. East Coast High Vol A has declined about 3% to $190 per ton, while High Vol B has risen slightly to $174.50 per ton as of November 5. In the seaborne thermal market, the API2 index was $115.50 per metric ton at the beginning of July and increased to $141.40 per metric ton at the end of September. Since then, the API2 index has moved down to $136.30 per metric ton as of November 5.

With that, operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from George Eadie with UBS.

Phần hỏi đáp

George Eadie

Can I ask on the cost front? So cash costs only 2% higher year-on-year at midpoint, even if I adjust for marginally higher midpoint sales volumes. Can you maybe just talk through what goes into that and sort of potential cost sensitivities for things like diesel? And I guess it sort of seems like a very low year-on-year cost increase given a lot in this sector are talking about a lot of input and broader sort of cost pressures.

Charles Eidson

George, this is Andy. I appreciate the question. Yes, we're actually pretty pleased with where our cost guidance is coming out for next year, although it is up a bit. I mean we've really seen the vast majority of the input cost impacts have already found their way into the system for us. So again, we would hope that there would be some relief on the diesel side. Hopefully, that situation gets resolved sometime in the near future.

And even then, it will take a while to work its way through the system. But we're just -- we're not saying that the input cost increases have flatlined, but the rate of increase has tailed back quite a bit. And once you bake in the impact of the diesel and all the oil adjuncts, I think we're -- currently, our run rate is pretty well reflective of that. So next year, we don't see a material amount of increase from there.

George Eadie

What diesel price did you assume in guidance for '27, Andy?

Charles Eidson

Off the top of my head, I don't know. Yes, I think it was low to mid-5s on a per gallon cost.

George Eadie

Okay. And then like what's the sensitivity, if you were to sort of estimate ballpark per ton on your cash cost, if that went back to sort of, say, mid-3s, like what's the potential production cash cost?

Charles Eidson

Well, I'll leave you to do the math on that, but we do run in the low 20 million gallons of diesel across all operations. So 20 million to 22 million gallons. So you could figure what the sensitivity is on that across all the tons.

George Eadie

Okay. Yes, that's perfect. And then just one more, sort of getting back to the 16 million ton per annum levels. Can you talk through how that looks? And if DTA sort of being down for the 2-year ballpark you guys flagged, is a constraint? Or I guess another way of asking was if markets got a lot stronger next year, could you push beyond that 15.7 million upper end, do you think? Or like what is the constraining limit to higher volumes for you guys at the moment?

Charles Eidson

Yes. I mean DTA obviously will be a constraint. Our sales and logistics team has done a really nice job, as I mentioned in the comments -- the prepared comments. They've done a nice job of finding flexibility and optionality with other export terminal access. So there will be a point in which we can't expand any further. I'm not going to throw out a number for that because, again, the team is pretty creative in finding new paths to get tons where we need them to go. But I think we're comfortable with our current run rate. I don't think there's a huge amount of upside to that.

And we're going to need the terminals to operate well, we're going to need the railroads to perform well to hit all of our numbers the way we want to. But I think we're going to be able to get there. And it's not going to look that different year-over-year comparing to 2026. From a quality perspective, it's going to look a little bit different because, again, I think we are moving around in our -- as has been our plan, we are shifting as a lot of other folks are. We've been working on a multiyear plan to shift more of our production from higher-ranked coals from the low-vol and mid-vol and a little bit less on the high-vol side. So that will continue to develop. But I think logistically, all of that fits pretty well into what we've got planned for 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities.

Nick Giles

It was good to hear that there's more high-vol coal in the domestic mix, which I assume leaves more low-vol coals to send into the seaborne market. So I was wondering if you could just quantify that mix shift, maybe how many incremental tons of low-vol would you be able to send -- export next year?

Charles Eidson

Nick, I'll throw that one over to Dan. That one is definitely -- he's got the numbers at his fingertips there.

Daniel Horn

Thanks, Andy. Well, let's start by saying that the high-vol that moved into the domestic market, that's coal that is a little -- let's say, a little lower value coal, and that was reflected in the overall comments that we have there in the pricing. But as we ramp up the low-vol mine, our new Wildcat mine, it's kind of dynamic. So you can't really compare our portfolio in '26 to what it's going to look like in '27. So as Wildcat ramps up, we'll have more low-vol available.

And broadly speaking, that's -- at this moment, that's all available for the seaborne market, but we've had a lot of interest in the domestic market, too, as it ramps up. But I won't give you a number, but it's several hundred thousand tons at least that would be available to go seaborne easily as well as our usual mix of high-vol and quite a bit of medium-vol, which is always sought after.

Nick Giles

Got it. Okay. I mean any sense for how much of that would be PLV linked? Or I guess, kind of what do the commercial discussions look like today in terms of getting more tons sold on a PLV basis?

Daniel Horn

Yes. I don't have -- there's -- I'll say this, there's quite a bit of interest from customers that we would sell against the Aussie indices, but I can't quantify that. The Wildcat coal is a premium coal that should -- that will achieve a premium to a lot of other U.S. low-vols, we think. So whether we sell it against an Aussie index or very strongly against the U.S. East Coast index, I mean, we're happy. We focus on the net return, not just the index.

Nick Giles

Makes sense. No, I appreciate that. Maybe just shifting gears to the stacker reclaimer. It's good to hear that you feel like that's fully covered from an insurance perspective. But how should we think about the timing of those insurance reimbursements versus any capital outlays that may be required? Or said differently, is there a scenario where you might have to invest in the new stacker reclaimer and kind of wait a few quarters for the insurance reimbursements to come in?

Charles Eidson

Yes. I think it's probably a little too early to comment on that one, Nick. I don't expect there to be too much of a sequencing problem from that respect, certainly not a multi-quarter type of reimbursement gap. Obviously, you may have a few weeks or a few months, but we're pretty pleased with how our insurance -- or DTA's insurance carriers has responded thus far. They've been very helpful and constructive in helping us move along this process relatively quickly. So yes, I don't expect an impact. But again, it's probably too early in the process to be making too many prognostications there.

Nick Giles

Okay. No, fair enough, Andy. Maybe just one last one from me on the capital allocation front. Would just be good to get an update on what you're seeing among your kind of smaller peers in Central App. Are there any opportunities out there to pick up some tons at a discount? Or have you heard any rumblings of kind of more capacity that's come offline?

Charles Eidson

Really not in a position to comment on any of those folks. I mean they'll have to speak for themselves. There's -- as we've always taken the position, we look at anything and everything. We want things to be a good strategic fit. If things are available, we want it to be either -- or not either, but a combination of geographically synergistic, quality synergistic and accretive from a financial standpoint. And those boxes, all 3 boxes are kind of hard to check right now when you look around the chessboard.

But there are some things out there that we can look at. But again, we're really focused on managing our own portfolio, particularly in markets like this, making sure that we're optimizing our outcomes and optimizing both the productivity and the profitability of the portfolio.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Nathan Martin with StoneX.

Nathan Martin

I had a question on DTA as well. I mean just given the fact that you said the repair/replacement time line could be extended into a year or 2. Just curious, do you see any opportunity to improve logistics or lower transportation or port costs in the meantime?

Charles Eidson

In the meantime, before we get to a repaired DTA? Probably not. I mean that's more of a focus on just getting the tons moved where we can as best we can. On the other side of DTA and during the repair, could there be some opportunities? Yes, I mean, any time you're looking at older equipment that's going to have to be replaced for any reason, you're going to hope to find some opportunities to improve things and whether it's from a throughput capacity standpoint or from a cost reduction. So -- but that will -- that's for future conversations as we actually get into the nuts and bolts of mechanically fixing and replacing the SR.

Nathan Martin

All right. Understood, Andy. I appreciate that. And then maybe looking at CapEx for '27. Guidance falls roughly flat year-over-year. I noticed an updated slide in your deck with kind of the breakdown there, but maybe you can provide a little more detail around the development projects you plan to spend capital on in '27 because I see that's kind of ticked up a little bit there.

Charles Eidson

Yes. I mean some of that is related to existing operations. We do have some refuse impoundment needs in Virginia that will obviously extend the life and help with managing the waste cost at the McClure prep plant, where Deep Mine 41 is handled. So that's obviously something that we're very focused on. Likewise, some potential work at the Kepler prep plant, where Road Fork 52 reports. And Road Fork 52, Deep Mine 41 definitely being at the top of our list as far as the portfolio of mines that we have.

Any development -- any other development, we're looking at other -- kind of our next projects, which are a little bit longer dated, a couple, 3 years out, just doing a little bit of prospective work there, not necessarily committing to a project, but making sure things are moving to the extent where if we want to pursue a project, we're not losing any time. So not a whole lot to report on that just yet.

Nathan Martin

All right. I appreciate that. And then maybe a final question for Dan. Dan, how should we think about the quality mix of what you guys have left to sell here for '26? I think you're roughly 80% committed and priced at the midpoint of guidance, so seemingly a few tons left to put to bed. How should we think about that as we head to the end of the year?

Daniel Horn

Yes, Nate, probably the typical blend. Maybe a little heavier with the low-vol. As Wildcat ramps up, we're producing a little more of that. So I don't think -- probably the same roughly blend. Still a fair half high-vol maybe and maybe the rest mid and low, something like that. But again, with -- going forward -- I'm sorry, going forward, more low. Our plan is and it will happen that we're going to have more low-vol in our mix and more medium-vol as we go forward. That's certainly the plan, and less high-vol. But the rest of the year is pretty well known. It's right in front of us.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would now turn the call over to Andy Eidson for closing remarks.

Charles Eidson

Well, thanks, everyone, for dialing into the call and checking in online. We appreciate your interest in Alpha, and we hope you all have a great weekend.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.