Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Lemonade (LMND): Tăng trưởng doanh thu 73% và triển vọng EBITDA quý 4 tích cực

Những điểm nhấn chính

• Phí bảo hiểm có hiệu lực (IFP) tăng 34% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 1,55 tỷ USD, kéo dài chuỗi tăng trưởng tăng tốc của Lemonade sang quý thứ 12 liên tiếp.
• Doanh thu tăng 73% lên 336 triệu USD, trong khi lợi nhuận gộp tăng 48% lên mức kỷ lục 118 triệu USD. Lợi nhuận gộp điều chỉnh tăng 49% lên 121 triệu USD.
• Lỗ EBITDA điều chỉnh thu hẹp từ 26 triệu USD xuống còn 20 triệu USD. Dòng tiền tự do điều chỉnh đạt mức dương quý thứ sáu liên tiếp ở mức 27 triệu USD.
• IFP của Lemonade Car tăng 63% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Sản phẩm này hiện đã có mặt tại 14 bang, bao phủ hơn một nửa dân số Mỹ.
• Ban lãnh đạo tái khẳng định kỳ vọng đạt EBITDA điều chỉnh dương từ 5 triệu đến 9 triệu USD trong quý 4/2026 và có lãi EBITDA điều chỉnh cả năm vào năm 2027.
• Doanh số bán chéo từ đầu năm đến nay đã vượt 100 triệu USD và tăng trưởng với tốc độ xấp xỉ gấp đôi tổng IFP, trong đó các hợp đồng bảo hiểm kết hợp tiệm cận 20% tổng IFP.

Dữ liệu tài chính chủ chốt

Tăng trưởng khách hàng đạt 23% và mức tăng 9% phí bảo hiểm trên mỗi khách hàng đã hỗ trợ cho đà tăng trưởng IFP. Lemonade kết thúc quý với 1.321 nhân viên, giảm 18 người so với quý trước và thấp hơn quy mô nhân sự bốn năm trước dù quy mô phí bảo hiểm đã tăng gần gấp ba lần trong giai đoạn đó.

Hiệu quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Bảo hiểm ô tô thúc đẩy tăng trưởng

IFP của Lemonade Car tăng 63% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, nhờ lượng hợp đồng mới đạt kỷ lục qua các kênh trực tiếp và bán cho khách hàng hiện hữu. Các đợt triển khai gần đây tại Missouri, Florida và Pennsylvania đã mở rộng phạm vi cung cấp lên 14 bang.

Tỷ lệ tổn thất bảo hiểm ô tô được báo cáo là khoảng 63%. Nếu loại trừ diễn biến tổn thất thuận lợi của các kỳ trước, ban lãnh đạo cho biết tỷ lệ này có xu hướng dao động trong khoảng từ thấp đến giữa 70%. Hợp đồng mới tiếp tục có tỷ lệ tổn thất cao hơn một chút so với hợp đồng tái tục, trong khi tần suất và mức độ nghiêm trọng nhìn chung phù hợp với kỳ vọng.

Sản phẩm bảo hiểm xe tự lái của Lemonade đã mở rộng sang 6 bang. Tỷ lệ chuyển đổi ở các chủ sở hữu xe Tesla cao gấp khoảng 2,2 lần so với sản phẩm ô tô nói chung. Công ty cũng cho biết đang duy trì mối quan hệ hợp tác tích cực với nhiều hãng sản xuất ô tô lớn khác ngoài Tesla, nhưng không cung cấp thêm chi tiết.

Bán chéo ngày càng đóng vai trò quan trọng

Doanh số bán chéo cho khách hàng hiện hữu của Lemonade đã vượt 100 triệu USD từ đầu năm đến nay và tăng trưởng với tốc độ xấp xỉ gấp đôi mức tăng IFP chung. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các giao dịch này đòi hỏi rất ít chi phí thu hút khách hàng tăng thêm.

Hoạt động bán chéo đang hưởng lợi từ cả việc thâm nhập sâu hơn vào nhóm khách hàng hiện hữu lẫn việc ra mắt sản phẩm tại các bang mới. Mảng hợp đồng bảo hiểm kết hợp đã tiệm cận 20% tổng IFP vào cuối quý.

Tăng tốc mở rộng địa bàn

Lemonade đã triển khai 25 sự kết hợp sản phẩm - địa bàn mới trong năm 2026. Sản phẩm bảo hiểm cho người thuê nhà của hãng đã có mặt trên toàn quốc, qua đó mở rộng khả năng tiếp cận các đối tác yêu cầu phạm vi bảo hiểm trên toàn bộ 50 bang, bao gồm cả các công ty quản lý bất động sản.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết tốc độ ra mắt sản phẩm trên toàn công ty trong năm 2026 nhanh hơn khoảng 7 lần so với các năm trước, nhờ vào khả năng tự động hóa của Lemonade OS.

AI và đòn bẩy hoạt động

Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh Lemonade OS và kiến trúc thuần AI là trọng tâm thúc đẩy năng suất, hoạt động ra mắt sản phẩm và kênh phân phối trong tương lai. Công ty có kế hoạch hỗ trợ các trợ lý AI cá nhân bên ngoài, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo cho biết kênh này hiện vẫn chưa đóng góp khối lượng đáng kể.

Chi phí hoạt động không bao gồm chi phí tổn thất và giải quyết tổn thất tăng 36% so với cùng kỳ năm trước và tăng 10 triệu USD so với quý trước. Nếu loại trừ chi tiêu cho tăng trưởng và chi phí lãi vay cao hơn, chi phí tăng khoảng 16%. Lemonade vẫn duy trì tỷ lệ LTV trên CAC ở mức trên 3:1 bất chấp việc tăng đầu tư cho bán hàng và tiếp thị.

Định hướng của ban lãnh đạo

Triển vọng hiện tại của ban lãnh đạo thể hiện các mục tiêu sau ở cận trên của các khoảng dự báo:

• Tăng trưởng IFP quý 4 và cả năm 2026 đạt 33%.
• Tăng trưởng doanh thu quý 4 đạt khoảng 52%.
• Tăng trưởng doanh thu cả năm 2026 đạt khoảng 67%.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh quý 4 đạt mức dương từ 5 triệu đến 9 triệu USD.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh cả năm 2027 đạt mức dương.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến mức tăng chi tiêu cho tăng trưởng sẽ chậm lại đáng kể bắt đầu từ quý 4/2026, dù chi tiêu cho tăng trưởng theo giá trị tuyệt đối dự kiến sẽ tăng trong năm 2027. Công ty cho biết ưu tiên đầu tư vẫn hướng tới các cơ hội tăng trưởng mang lại lợi nhuận cao, đặc biệt là trong mảng bảo hiểm ô tô.

Chi phí thù lao bằng cổ phiếu dự kiến sẽ không còn là động lực thúc đẩy tăng trưởng chi phí so với cùng kỳ sau khi Lemonade hoàn tất chu kỳ thưởng cho ban điều hành vào quý 2/2027. Mức tăng chi phí lãi vay cũng sẽ hạ nhiệt dần theo thời gian, một phần nhờ chi phí giảm từ thỏa thuận mới của công ty với Hannover Re.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Mảng bảo hiểm thú cưng đang phải đối mặt với chi phí thú y gia tăng. Lemonade đang tiến hành tăng phí, nhưng ban lãnh đạo cho biết tác động này sẽ cần vài quý mới phản ánh vào kết quả tài chính.
• Tỷ lệ tổn thất mảng thú cưng là nguyên nhân chính khiến mức dự báo doanh thu cao hơn không chuyển hóa thành mức tăng trong dự báo EBITDA điều chỉnh quý 4 hoặc cả năm.
• Tỷ lệ tổn thất tại châu Âu ở mức cao trong quý 3, trong đó các thảm họa và tổn thất lớn đóng góp 29 điểm phần trăm. Công ty đang thực hiện các biện pháp điều chỉnh phí có mục tiêu nhằm cải thiện biên lợi nhuận khai thác bảo hiểm cơ bản.
• Lỗ ròng nới rộng so với cùng kỳ năm trước bất chấp EBITDA điều chỉnh đã cải thiện, chủ yếu do chi phí thù lao bằng cổ phiếu và chi phí lãi vay tăng cao.
• Sự thay đổi trong cơ cấu kinh doanh, bao gồm tăng trưởng nhanh hơn ở mảng ô tô và chính sách định giá cạnh tranh có chọn lọc, có thể làm tăng nhẹ tỷ lệ tổn thất chung. Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh họ đang tối ưu hóa giá trị tuyệt đối của lợi nhuận gộp thay vì chỉ tập trung đơn lẻ vào tỷ lệ tổn thất.

Điểm nhấn phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Khả năng sinh lời so với tăng trưởng: Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng mô hình lịch sử về việc cải thiện đáng kể khả năng sinh lời trong quý 4 sẽ tiếp diễn. Lemonade có kế hoạch tái đầu tư năng lực tăng thêm vào các cơ hội tăng trưởng sinh lời cao, đồng thời đặt mục tiêu đạt EBITDA điều chỉnh dương trong cả năm 2027.

Áp lực từ bảo hiểm thú cưng: Chi phí thú y cao hơn đang đẩy tỷ lệ tổn thất mảng thú cưng lên. Việc tăng phí đang dần phát huy tác dụng trên danh mục hợp đồng, và ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tỷ lệ này sẽ hạ nhiệt trong các quý tới.

Trợ lý AI cá nhân: Ban lãnh đạo chưa ghi nhận khối lượng đáng kể từ các trợ lý cá nhân nhưng đánh giá hoạt động phân phối bảo hiểm giữa các trợ lý AI là một bước chuyển chiến lược tiềm năng. Thông tin chi tiết hơn dự kiến sẽ được công bố tại Ngày hội Nhà đầu tư của Lemonade vào ngày 17/11.

Quan hệ đối tác bảo hiểm cho người thuê nhà trên toàn quốc: Việc hiện diện trên toàn nước Mỹ giúp tháo gỡ rào cản đối với các đối tác lớn đòi hỏi phạm vi bao phủ trên toàn quốc. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng các cơ hội hợp tác sẽ mở rộng dần dần thay vì tạo ra bước đột phá ngay lập tức.

Quỹ đạo chi phí: Chi phí G&A tăng chủ yếu do chi phí lãi vay, chi phí thù lao bằng cổ phiếu và việc không còn các khoản lợi ích một lần của năm trước. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến mức tăng trưởng chi phí G&A so với cùng kỳ sẽ giảm tốc đáng kể sau quý 2/2027.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Lemonade Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to the Lemonade team. Please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Good morning, and welcome to Lemonade's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining us on our call today, we have Daniel Schreiber, CEO and Co-Founder; Shai Wininger, President and Co-Founder; Tim Bixby, Chief Financial Officer; and Nick Stead, SVP, Finance. A letter to shareholders covering the company's third quarter 2026 financial results is available on our Investor Relations website at lemonade.com/investor.

I would like to remind you that management's remarks made on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC and our more recent filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow and adjusted gross profit, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance.

Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our letter to shareholders. Our letter to shareholders also includes information about our key performance indicators, including number of customers, in-force premium, premium per customer, annual dollar retention, gross earned premium, gross loss ratio, gross loss ratio ex-CAT, trailing 12-month loss ratio and net loss ratio and a definition of each metric, why each is useful to investors and how we use each to monitor and manage our business.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Daniel for some opening remarks.

Daniel Schreiber

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to review Lemonade's results for Q3 2026. This was another excellent quarter, marked by accelerating growth, healthy underwriting performance and continued progress towards profitability. In-force premium reached $1.55 billion, growing 34% year-on-year and extending our streak of accelerating growth to 12 consecutive quarters. Revenue grew faster still, increasing 73% to $336 million, while gross profit increased 48% to a record $118 million. We are particularly encouraged by the growth momentum in our car business. IFP grew 63% year-over-year, and we saw record levels of new business across both our direct channels and sales to existing Lemonade customers. At the same time, underwriting performance continues to be healthy and broadly in line with our expectations.

On the bottom line, adjusted EBITDA loss was $20 million, in line with our expectations, and we remain on track to deliver our first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter in the current quarter and reiterate our expectations that 2027 will be EBITDA positive on an annual basis. We first outlined our expectation of reaching positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 of 2026 back in 2022. Since then, we've navigated considerable macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty, yet our profitability time line remains unchanged. That is deeply gratifying and indicative of how dependable and predictable our business is. A key driver of this trajectory has been the operating leverage our technology affords us across the business. And I think the clearest illustration of that is our productivity per employee.

We ended the quarter with 1,321 employees, fewer than we employed 4 years ago. Yet over that period, we've nearly tripled our premium base and doubled our customer count. In other words, we're running a business nearly 3x the size with slightly fewer people. That's the compounding benefit of a decade of investment in our proprietary AI platform, and we believe there's considerable more leverage ahead. We're just days away from our Investor Day on November 17 in New York City, where we'll share more about our long-term growth aspirations and the AI capabilities powering our business. I do hope you will tune in.

With that, I'll hand it over to Shai, who will cover a couple of exciting developments across the business. Shai?

Shai Wininger

Thanks, Daniel. One topic we'll dive into more detail at Investor Day is the emergence of personal AI agents, which I believe will fundamentally reshape insurance distribution. We are extremely excited about this long-awaited opportunity to open Lemonade OS to external agents, letting them serve their user directly just as our team would. Customers using personal agents to interact with Lemonade will get instant 24/7 quality service, while we reduce our cost to serve, allowing us to pass more savings back to them. You can read more about our upcoming Lemonade OS update with native support for personal agents at lemonade.com/agentic.

I also want to touch on 2 areas where Lemonade OS supercharged our progress, geographic expansion and autonomous car. First, geographic expansion. 2026 has been a year of accelerated growth on the map with 25 new product geography combinations launched this year alone. Lemonade OS brings levels of automation and sophistication that transform non-engineering tasks that used to take weeks into hours, allowing our team to launch products and enter new markets with increasing speed and less incremental overhead. And I'm pleased to note that we reached a major milestone earlier this week, nationwide availability for our renters product, the first in our portfolio to achieve that with more to come.

We've also seen faster geographic growth in our car business following recent launches in Missouri, Florida and Pennsylvania. Lemonade car is now available in 14 states, covering more than half of the U.S. population. Our car business is also getting better with healthier cohorts, more competitive pricing, new features and exceptional customer service. This is a complex expansion that requires our team to grow and improve the product at the same time. I expect our car expansion to pick up even more speed in the coming quarters.

The second area I wanted to highlight is autonomous car, where once again, Lemonade OS is unlocking velocity we couldn't have otherwise achieved. Since launching the product earlier this year, we've already expanded to 6 states. Early results from our autonomous pricing model continue to be encouraging with conversion among Tesla owners roughly 2.2x those we see with our broader car product.

And with that, I'll hand it over to Tim, who will take us through the financial performance and outlook in more detail. Tim?

Timothy Bixby

Thanks, Shai. Let's start with Q3 results, which were excellent. In-force premium grew 34% year-on-year to $1.55 billion, driven by customer growth of 23% and premium per customer growth of 9%. We added roughly 212,000 new customers in Q3, 20% greater than the roughly 177,000 customers added in the prior year quarter. Within our reported gross loss ratio of 65%, our favorable prior period development of about 2% was driven primarily by our car and renters products. On a net basis, we also saw 2 points of favorable prior period development.

The vast majority of development was not cat related, both on a gross and net basis. Prior year development, which we report on a net basis, was $4 million favorable in Q3 and about $20 million favorable year-to-date. Gross profit increased 48% to $118 million, while adjusted gross profit increased 49% to $121 million for a gross margin and an adjusted gross margin of 35% and 36%, respectively. These metrics use revenue as the denominator. Adjusted gross profit as compared to gross earned premium was 33% in Q3, up 4 points from 29% in the prior year.

Revenue grew 73% to $336 million, while our adjusted EBITDA loss improved about 20% to a loss of $20 million. Notably, revenue grew about 40 percentage points faster than IFP due to dynamics related to our sustained trend of increased premium retention at our reinsurance renewals in recent years. Importantly, adjusted free cash flow was positive for the sixth consecutive quarter at $27 million, while operating cash flow was also positive at $7 million. We ended the quarter with roughly $1.2 billion in cash and investments, of which about $350 million is required to be held as regulatory surplus.

Annual dollar retention, or ADR, increased by 1 percentage point sequentially to 86%. Operating expenses, excluding loss and loss adjustment expense, increased by $51 million or 36% in Q3 as compared to the prior year and by $10 million sequentially compared to Q2. Minus the increase in growth spend and interest expense, expenses were up about 16%. One additional logistical note. We currently have a standard S-3 Registration on file known as a shelf registration, which has a fairly typical 3-year expiration date or term. Ours expires next week. So we plan to renew that shelf with an updated S-3 filing shortly. This is a valuable tool to have at hand as a public company. I will note that we have no immediate plans to utilize it.

And I'll hand it off to Nick, who will take us through some growth and expense drivers in a bit more detail in addition to our guidance. Nick?

Nicholas Stead

Thanks, Tim. I wanted to first highlight a notable growth driver in Q3. Sales to existing Lemonade customers known as cross-sales are becoming an increasingly significant contributor to our overall growth. Year-to-date, we surpassed $100 million in cross-sales, which are growing at twice our IFP growth rate. And we see significant opportunity to drive further IFP growth from our existing customer base over time.

Turning to operating expenses. We continue to see great leverage across our cost structure. While year-over-year comparisons are impacted by certain Q2 expense increases, the sequential comparison provides a clear picture of our underlying expense trajectory. From Q2 to Q3, operating expenses increased by $10 million, and that was attributable to increases in growth spend, related interest expense and other insurance expense. Stock-based compensation was down slightly sequentially and headcount also modestly declined, down by 18 to 1,321. Year-over-year, operating expenses grew by 36%. That was driven by a handful of identifiable factors, most of which we expect to moderate going forward.

Let me briefly unpack the drivers and individual line items. Other insurance expense grew $5 million or 21% compared to 33% growth in gross earned premium. Recall that this line item is largely variable in nature, and it is generally expected to grow at rates not materially different from the top line. Sales and marketing grew by $25 million or 44%, and that was driven by increased growth spend. Alongside that increase, we maintained strong LTV to CAC ratios above 3:1. Technology development expense grew 18%, primarily due to increased stock-based compensation expense and G&A grew by 45%, primarily due to increased stock-based compensation, interest expense and the absence of prior year one-time benefits in the current quarter.

I want to share some thoughts on how we expect these expense growth drivers to impact future results. First, growth spend. We touched on this in the last quarter's shareholder letter, but the growth rate of growth spend is expected to slow significantly in Q4 2026 and onwards. Second, stock-based compensation expense. We don't expect this to be a driver of year-over-year expense growth beginning in Q2 2027 once we lap those executive awards from earlier this year. Third, interest expense growth should moderate over time, benefiting from the reduced cost of our new Hannover Re agreement. And lastly, other insurance expense, which includes those variable costs will continue to grow. So taken together, these insights and drivers reinforce our confidence in continued operating leverage and expanding profitability.

Turning to the bottom line. Net loss was $44 million or $0.56 per share compared to $38 million or $0.51 per share last year. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved to a loss of $20 million from $26 million last year. The divergence in year-over-year performance between the 2 measures largely reflects the increases in stock-based compensation and interest expense.

Let's now look ahead to our guidance for Q4 and full year 2026. We include this in our shareholder letter and our current view represents 33% Q4 and full year IFP growth at the high end of our guidance range, roughly 52% Q4 revenue growth and 67% full year 2026 revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA of $5 million to $9 million in the fourth quarter.

With that, I would like to pass it over to Shai to answer some questions from our retail investors.

Shai Wininger

Thanks, Nick. We'll now turn to our shareholders' questions. There were a number of questions around the pace of geo expansion and whether we expect to see the pace of car state rollout accelerate similar to the surge of renters launches in the past few months.

So a few thoughts on this. As a reminder, we launched 3 new car states in the past 90 days, Florida, Missouri and Pennsylvania. So far, in 2026, our launch pace across the business is about 7x faster than in prior years. So we're really seeing the Lemonade OS acceleration take effect. Also, we're not facing a TAM constraint. The states we're live in represent more than half the market, a TAM well north of $100 billion. Our car growth is not constrained by geographical expansion. That said, I expect us to offer all of our products in all 50 states, just as we now do for renters. And I also expect our team to continue and shorten the cycle time to build and launch a new car state.

We got questions about our autonomous product, specifically whether we are working with any autonomous driving or fleet partner in addition to Tesla.

I'm unable to share much about this right now, but I will say that we have multiple active relationships with major carmakers beyond Tesla and expect to see more brands become available in the Lemonade autonomous car product over time.

Lastly, we've gotten some questions about AI in our industry, specifically how our AI native architecture becomes a durable advantage and not just efficiency gains that competitors can copy.

I actually think our advantage is growing in the Agentic era. There is a common misconception here. As individuals, you can install Claude or ChatGPT in minutes. And having that kind of intelligence in your pocket, the value is obvious. Scroll through X, and it looks like everyone is building swarms of agents to run their businesses. But inside large organizations, it's very, very different. Most incumbents run on layers of legacy systems. Many of them were designed before the Internet. They don't build their own core systems. They rely on vendors to innovate for them, and most of their policies aren't sold digitally. So they don't have the data or the signals or the context that AI needs to be truly useful. And driving this kind of change takes a culture and a team that were built for it from day 1. And that's what Lemonade and Lemonade OS is all about.

It was designed from the ground up for autonomous operation. AI agents doing the work, not AI bolted on top of systems built for humans and everything runs on top of deep context. Every quote, every policy, every claim, every customer interaction has been digital from day 1. So our agents don't just see a task, they see the full picture, who the customer is, their history, their risk profile and how every part of the business connects. That context is what makes autonomy actually work. And it compounds. Better claims data leads to more accurate pricing, better pricing helps us grow profitably and that growth gives us more data and even deeper context. And because it's one system that we built and we own, we can open it up directly to personal AI agents. That's extremely hard to do on top of decades of legacy infrastructure. So that's what makes the advantage durable.

Competitors can use the same AI models. They can automate individual tasks, but AI is only as good as the context it runs on. And a connected system built for autonomy over a decade isn't something you can buy or bolt on. We believe that advantage compounds over time. It lets us move faster, price more competitively and win a growing share of the market. And if that's a question that interests you, I strongly encourage you to tune into our Investor Day on November 17.

With that, I'll pass it over to the moderator, and we will take some questions from the Street.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer.

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Jason Helfstein

Don't want to steal your thunder before the upcoming Analyst Day, but I appreciate the kind of color on how to think about expenses. I mean, look, I think there's a big question on we're at an inflection point with profitability for the business, kind of given your comment about slowing marketing, can you give us some hint of how we should think about maybe EBITDA pacing as we move into next year and how you're thinking about balancing kind of EBITDA relative to what are obviously some of the exciting growth drivers around car and other areas?

Timothy Bixby

Sure. I'll take that, Jason. I think a couple of ways to think about it. History is always a good guide for the future for Lemonade. So I think that trend will continue. There's a couple of things that typically drive the balance between growth and profitability and also over the course of quarters and how that flows. And so I think for a few years now, including this year, you'll see a pattern where there's a pretty consistent theme in the bottom line trajectory in the first 3 quarters of the year and then a really nice and notable step change in Q4, and that's a common theme. We expect to see it this year. It's likely to continue going forward.

And so when we come in February and give guidance for next year, it's pretty likely you'll see a similar pattern. And so when we indicate that we expect to be EBITDA positive in Q4, as we do, and EBITDA positive for the full year next year, that pattern will likely be consistent. And our growth spend will likely follow that. We've got a real benefit embedded in the business now where we can grow at a quite healthy rate with significantly slowing growth rate in growth spend. So we're spending more growth dollars for sure, but that growth rate is declining quite rapidly. And so we'll see absolute dollars in terms of gross spend increase next year. We are keeping a close eye on the balance of growth and profitability. It's been 4 years now when we've been talking about this Q4 EBITDA positive coming.

And with that kind of visibility, I would expect that theme to continue into next year. Our bias is always growth. When an extra $1 or $1 million or $5 million becomes apparent in the forward model, we tend to invest that in high ROI, high LTV to CAC growth. More often than not at the moment, that is car, and you saw that in the car growth rate year-on-year. You've seen that for a number of quarters. So I would expect all those themes to continue.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Lee from Morgan Stanley.

Daniel Lee

For guidance, you guys raised the full year revenue range by $16 million, but kept the full year adjusted EBITDA range unchanged. Could you talk about the drivers behind your $5 million to $9 million EBITDA guide for 4Q? Are you guys expecting maybe incrementally higher growth spend or other operating expenses in the fourth quarter?

Nicholas Stead

Thanks, Daniel. Happy to take that one. Yes, you're right. Revenue guidance is up and adjusted EBITDA guide for the fourth quarter and full year is stable. And the primary driver of that is related to our pet loss ratio. We're seeing a modest headwind, and you can see that in the sequential pacing of the pet loss ratio. And I'd note the pet loss ratio is largely under control. We're taking rate through the system to offset the dynamics that we're seeing, and that will flow through the financials in upcoming periods. And as a result, that loss ratio is expected to moderate over time. But that's the primary reason I'd note for that dynamic where you're seeing revenue up, but the adjusted EBITDA guide roughly stable.

Now I also wanted to say, notwithstanding that pet loss ratio factor, we continue to deliver a guidance of 33% IFP growth and positive adjusted EBITDA guidance. And so pet is 40% of our business, not 100% of our business, and that paints the picture of the resilience of our growth due to the benefits of diversification.

Daniel Lee

Got it. For my follow-up, I wanted to -- I know you'll probably -- you guys will probably provide more details on personal agents during Investor Day, but I'm curious, are you guys seeing any volume from personal agents like new today? And maybe could you talk a little bit -- I know it's early, but could you talk a little bit about the net impact from agentic for Lemonade's book of business over the next few years?

Daniel Schreiber

Daniel, yes, it is something -- it's the other Daniel here. It is something that we're going to discuss at our Investor Day, and Shai referenced it in his earlier answers as well. We're not seeing it yet in the volumes, but we are seeing it in significant ways. And we actually think this is something of a game changer for the industry and in a way that is very favorable to Lemonade.

I'll touch on a couple of things that I'll develop in our meeting in 10 days' time. But -- it starts with the fact that Lemonade has managed to automate so much. We've had our AI Maya since for 10 years now selling policies and AI Jim paying claims, and we've been working with a framework of a centralized unified system with orbit -- an orbit of agents around it really for a very, very long time. And the one human in the loop that we were never able to overcome is the consumer, of course. And now the consumer is getting their own stand-in, and suddenly the entire system becomes agentic. And for us, that's a very, very big deal. It means that we can move at paces that were not possible hitherto. And it also means that the kind of behaviors that we're seeing from personal agents -- they file much more rigorous and lengthy documents, and they can really produce something of a tsunami of well-reasoned legalistic kind of appeals.

It's the kind of stuff that we handle very comfortably because we've got our agents talking to your agents. But I think that's going to become an increasing -- is becoming an increasing issue for incumbents who are used to a more human-to-human contact. But honestly, beyond all of that tactical stuff, strategically, this is a big shift. The entire industry is predicated on the kind of brand advertising that depends deeply on a human at the other end who can come under the sway of a quirky, accented gecko or a quirky brunette called Flo or a guy called Doug who has an [ emu ] for pets. And all those kinds of things lose all of that impact the second you're talking to a personal agent. They've got nice muses, a nice fairy icon, but these are rational agents that are just oblivious to the very moat upon which the entire industry has built itself. So I think there are strategic shifts there of tremendous importance, and I'll develop that theme a bit more in the Investor Day.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt from KBW.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

A question on the renters business there. Now that you're in all 50 states, you talked about the possibility of potentially unlocking partnerships now that you are nationwide. What would be an example of that? Is that with property management companies? Would that be an embedded referral system where you would pay a commission or a referral fee to the partners for sourcing that business? What did you mean by that partnership comment?

Timothy Bixby

Yes. So I would think of that as more of the same, but even more so. And what I mean is there are a tier of folks who are potential great partners who have broad reach, are a really nice fit for an effective renters product that just have a nationwide requirement. And so there's a bit of a ceiling that we've dealt with for a very long time. We've had a great number of excellent partners all along the way. Our bias, of course, is direct-to-consumer, but we've always had a nice -- really nice stable of effective partners in probably 4 or 5 different verticals and property management is certainly near the top of the list.

But this kind of opens up a broader world of more established players with perhaps a more rigorous requirement that would be nationwide. So I would think of it as not so much a light switch shift, but a consistent improvement and expansion over time and our ability to reach into these great partners. So we're -- the head of our renters team and the company is really focused on that. So you'll see that in the coming quarters.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

Okay. Got it. And then you had some interesting comments on your cross-sell growth trends that you're seeing. What portion of your incremental cross-sales are because you now have a new product live in a state like, for instance, expanding car into more states? Is that driving the majority of cross-sales? Or are there still cross-sales happening where people are coming around to getting a pet policy where they've already had a renters policy, but it's already been available in that state for a number of years?

Nicholas Stead

Tommy, I think I'd note it's really coming from both places. And cross-sales in particular, are performing very well. The growth rate of cross-sales currently is roughly double that of total in-force premium. And we're -- we expect that to continue to be an increasingly significant driver of growth over time. And I'd really call out both of those dynamics. We're continuing to expand penetration within our existing cohorts. But then certainly, when we launch a new state, we do see a spike in cross-sales as a result of that.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

And just actually last quick one. What's the percentage of your IFP or number of customers that have more than one product? And I guess, should I think of all of those as part of your cross-sale definition?

Nicholas Stead

The percentage of total in-force premium that is bundled at the end of the quarter is fast approaching 20% and has been improving steadily over time. The percentage of customers who have more than one policy is also interesting. But for us, there's a dynamic where we have over 2 million renters customers and for a meaningful portion of those customers, a bundle isn't an immediate need. And so I instead point to those dollars, which I think are a more helpful measure. You've got, like I said, approaching 20% of total in-force premium. And when you look at the dollars contributed by cross-sales really growing rapidly.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Andersen from Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen

When you describe the newer car cohorts as healthier, which metrics are improving? And how do their loss ratios and retention compare with prior cohorts at a similar maturity?

Nicholas Stead

So when I look at the overall car underwriting performance, let me break that down a bit perhaps. The calendar quarter loss ratio was around 63%, and we did see a meaningful benefit from prior period development within our car line of business. And so outside of that effect, the car loss ratio is trending in the low to mid-70s range. New business continues to have a slightly higher loss ratio than renewal business. But within the overall performance, I'd characterize both frequency and severity for both new and renewal business generally to be trending healthily and in line with our expectations. And that's a notable fact given the sheer pace of growth rate acceleration that we're seeing from an IFP perspective in car.

Andrew Andersen

And maybe just on expenses, even after adjusting for some items like stock comp and one-timers and interest expense -- GC interest expense, it does still look like underlying G&A is increasing at a teens or high teens rate despite the lower headcount. So could you maybe just break down what is driving that underlying increase a bit more and how we should think about the underlying run rate increase into '27?

Nicholas Stead

Within G&A, the primary drivers of expense growth from a year-over-year perspective are interest expense, stock-based compensation expense and a couple of one-timers in the prior year quarter. You're right that it's not perfectly flat outside of those dynamics. But if I point to the sequential change, the growth is notably lower. If I look ahead, I might point to Q2 '27 as an interesting point in time where we lap the impact of the executive awards from earlier in the year. And so the stock-based compensation driver is no longer contributing to year-over-year growth. And from that point onwards, I would expect to see significantly moderating year-over-year growth in G&A.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alejandro Zumbato from BMO.

Michael Zaremski

Mike Zaremski filling in for Alejandro. Just back quickly to the conversation on the pet insurance loss ratio. Maybe you could just kind of give a little bit more color on what's driving that a bit higher and what actions you're going to take? And then maybe you could also just touch on the European gross loss ratio as well and what's -- any color there?

Nicholas Stead

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I can take those. So within our pet line of business, we're impacted by an inflationary macro dynamic that's impacting the entire industry with increasing vet costs, and we're actively taking rate through the system to address that. And so like I think we mentioned earlier, we do expect that pet loss ratio trend to moderate and normalize in the upcoming several quarters. I'll note it takes a few quarters for that to flow through the financials. And maybe hitting Europe for a moment, the loss ratio was elevated in the current quarter. That type of volatility is not entirely unexpected with a book of our size and scale. And I'll note, 29 points within the current quarter results were driven by catastrophes and large losses.

Now with that said, in Europe as well, we are pursuing some targeted rate actions to drive improved underwriting margins on an attritional basis. Now maybe I wanted to -- while we're on the topic of loss ratio -- those are excellent questions, and I -- hopefully, I answered your question on the drivers. On a trailing 12-month basis, our loss ratio is 60% overall. And we view that as a very healthy level relative to our own history and relative to benchmarks. And from here, there are certain drivers across the business, for example, mix shift to car and certain segments where we may lean into competitive pricing, and those drivers may modestly increase the loss ratio over time. We're not solving for loss ratio in isolation, however. We're solving for total gross profit dollar generation. And so I encourage you to continue to focus primarily on gross profit and its growth rate as we continue to grow.

Timothy Bixby

And perhaps importantly, on loss ratio, these are not surprises to us. While it feels -- can often feel better when the number goes down and feel a little worse when the number goes up, that's really not how we view it. We have a view into loss ratio as it develops almost on a real-time basis. We're looking at each month at minimum as we go. And so while reporting a full quarter is interesting because that's the checkpoint, these are not big surprises to us. They've been factored into our guidance. They factor into our forward models.

And in some ways, these modest volatilities in loss ratio and other key KPIs up and down is really the positive factor that indicates that we're growing effectively. We're shifting mix. We're expanding newer products. We're growing car. Europe has gone from a rounding error to a really large and dynamic business. And so these are the kinds of things that you see in the metrics as you go. But if you back up and look at a couple of quarters or a year, these are right on track with our expectations.

Michael Zaremski

Understood. Good color. And just as a quick follow-up on the exciting news about kind of increasing cross-sell. If we were to kind of seek to model that into our models, I think you gave some color earlier, but there's -- is it correct there's not really much incremental customer acquisition cost spend on whatever product is being cross-sold?

Nicholas Stead

Yes, that is a correct assumption. And if you're looking ahead, we remain bullish on our ability to continue to drive cross-sales growth that is notably higher than the overall growth of the top line.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.