Avista (AVA) Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026: Tái khẳng định dự báo, kế hoạch chi tiêu vốn 3,6 tỷ USD

Điểm tin chính

• Avista Corporation (NYSE: AVA) đã báo cáo EPS pha loãng hợp nhất quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 0,57 USD, so với 0,36 USD trong quý 3 năm 2025. EPS mảng tiện ích phi GAAP đạt 0,38 USD so với 0,37 USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã tái khẳng định dự báo EPS mảng tiện ích phi GAAP năm 2026 là từ 2,52 USD đến 2,72 USD và kỳ vọng kết quả sẽ nằm gần mức trung vị.
• Avista Utilities dự kiến chi phí đầu tư vốn năm 2026 là 615 triệu USD và chi tiêu vốn cơ bản giai đoạn 2027-2031 là 3,6 tỷ USD.
• Công ty đã tạm dừng tiếp nhận các đơn đăng ký trung tâm dữ liệu lớn mới yêu cầu đầu tư đáng kể vào nguồn phát điện hoặc truyền tải trong ít nhất 12 tháng. Không có tăng trưởng nào liên quan đến điện toán được đưa vào kế hoạch vốn hiện tại.
• Các dự án thương mại, sản xuất và khai khoáng tiềm năng khác đại diện cho phụ tải triển vọng khoảng 85 MW trong dài hạn.
• Ban lãnh đạo tiếp tục mục tiêu tăng trưởng lợi nhuận dài hạn từ 4% đến 6% từ điểm trung vị của dự báo lợi nhuận năm 2025 và tỷ suất lợi nhuận trên vốn chủ sở hữu dài hạn khoảng 9% tại Avista Utilities, không bao gồm tác động của Cơ chế Phục hồi Năng lượng.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Sự cải thiện tại các hoạt động kinh doanh khác của Avista phản ánh sự phục hồi giá trị thị trường từ các khoản lỗ định giá năm 2025. ERock Inc., một doanh nghiệp do quỹ EIP nắm giữ, đã hoàn tất đợt phát hành cổ phiếu lần đầu ra công chúng vào tháng 6 năm 2026, và mức tăng định giá liên quan đã được ghi nhận vào kết quả hợp nhất quý 3.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Avista cho biết các vụ cháy rừng ở khu vực Spokane không gây ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến các cơ sở vật chất của công ty. Công ty cũng tuyên bố rằng các vụ cháy là do con người gây ra và cơ sở hạ tầng của công ty không liên quan. Công tác tái thiết và kết nối lại điện cho khách hàng có thể kéo dài trong nhiều năm tại một số khu dân cư bị ảnh hưởng.

Công ty đã tạm dừng xử lý các đơn đăng ký trung tâm dữ liệu lớn mới đòi hỏi khoản đầu tư lớn vào nguồn phát điện hoặc truyền tải. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến đợt tạm dừng này sẽ kéo dài ít nhất 12 tháng trong khi các cơ quan quản lý tiểu bang và chính quyền địa phương xây dựng khuôn khổ chính sách và pháp lý.

Avista cho biết các dự án trung tâm dữ liệu lớn trong tương lai phải tự chi trả chi phí, mang lại lợi ích rõ rệt về mức giá hợp lý cho các khách hàng hiện hữu, đồng thời duy trì hoặc nâng cao độ tin cậy. Công ty đang xem xét các mức biểu giá và những cơ chế quản lý hoặc chính sách khác nhằm tăng cường bảo vệ khách hàng.

Ngoài các trung tâm dữ liệu, Avista đang đánh giá các phụ tải tiềm năng từ mảng thương mại, sản xuất và khai khoáng với tổng cộng khoảng 85 MW trong dài hạn. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết những cơ hội này có thể đóng góp thêm vào mức tăng trưởng hữu cơ thông thường.

Avista cũng đang đẩy nhanh các dự án được lựa chọn thông qua yêu cầu đề xuất (RFP) đa nguồn. Các thỏa thuận đáp ứng phụ tải dự kiến sẽ cung cấp tới 35 MW hướng tới mục tiêu 40 MW năng lượng phân tán của công ty vào năm 2030.

Dự thảo chiến lược ưu tiên cho Kế hoạch Nguồn lực Tích hợp (IRP) năm 2027 bao gồm các nguồn điện chạy đỉnh bổ sung vì nhu cầu vào ngày cao điểm đang tăng nhanh hơn so với các dự báo trước đó. Avista dự kiến sẽ nộp kế hoạch này vào cuối năm 2026 hoặc đầu năm 2027, tiếp theo là cuộc thầu RFP đa nguồn trong vài tháng sau đó nếu dự thảo chiến lược được giữ nguyên.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Avista đã tái khẳng định dự báo EPS mảng tiện ích phi GAAP năm 2026 từ 2,52 USD đến 2,72 USD và kỳ vọng lợi nhuận sẽ ở mức gần trung vị. Dự báo này bao gồm tác động tiêu cực 0,09 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu từ Cơ chế Phục hồi Năng lượng, được ghi nhận trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026.

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng tỷ suất lợi nhuận trên vốn chủ sở hữu dài hạn của Avista Utilities đạt khoảng 9%, không bao gồm tác động của ERM. Triển vọng này đã bao gồm khoảng 60 điểm cơ bản do độ trễ quản lý mang tính cấu trúc và giả định chi phí cung cấp điện được điều chỉnh về mức phù hợp.

Công ty tiếp tục kỳ vọng mức tăng trưởng lợi nhuận dài hạn từ 4% đến 6% so với điểm trung vị của dự báo lợi nhuận năm 2025.

Avista Utilities dự kiến chi phí đầu tư vốn năm 2026 là 615 triệu USD, trong đó 496 triệu USD đã được giải ngân tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9. Chi tiêu vốn cơ bản cho giai đoạn từ 2027 đến 2031 dự kiến đạt 3,6 tỷ USD, bao gồm các dự án được chọn thông qua RFP năm 2025 và dự kiến thực hiện vào năm 2028. Kế hoạch này không bao gồm tăng trưởng liên quan đến điện toán.

Avista đã phát hành 58 triệu USD cổ phiếu phổ thông trong 9 tháng đầu năm và dự kiến sẽ phát hành thêm tối đa 15 triệu USD trong năm 2026, tùy thuộc vào điều kiện thị trường. Công ty đã phát hành 230 triệu USD nợ dài hạn trong năm 2026 và không có kế hoạch phát hành thêm nợ dài hạn trong năm nay. Do các khoản hoãn thu chi theo quy định pháp lý gia tăng và việc thu hồi chi phí bị chậm trễ, ban lãnh đạo dự định vay ngắn hạn tối đa 100 triệu USD trong quý 4.

Cho năm 2027, Avista dự kiến phát hành khoảng 220 triệu USD nợ dài hạn và tối đa 110 triệu USD cổ phiếu phổ thông.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Vụ việc điều chỉnh biểu giá chung tại Washington vẫn đang chờ xử lý, với quyết định của ủy ban dự kiến được đưa ra vào giữa tháng 12. Các vấn đề then chốt bao gồm kế hoạch giá 4 năm được đề xuất, tỷ suất lợi nhuận trên vốn chủ sở hữu, thu hồi vốn và các cơ chế theo dõi.
• Điều kiện thị trường cung cầu điện vẫn khó dự báo. Ngay cả khi phương pháp dự báo do Avista đề xuất được thông qua, kết quả ERM trong tương lai vẫn có thể biến động.
• Các khoản hoãn thu chi theo quy định pháp lý và việc thu hồi chi phí bị chậm trễ đang làm tăng nhu cầu vốn ngắn hạn.
• Quy mô và thời điểm của nhu cầu trung tâm dữ liệu trong tương lai vẫn chưa chắc chắn trong thời gian tạm dừng tiếp nhận đơn đăng ký.
• Các cơ hội đầu tư vốn bổ sung phụ thuộc vào kế hoạch nguồn lực, kết quả RFP, các dự án khách hàng và tiến độ đầu tư truyền tải.

Điểm nổi bật trong phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc phê duyệt phương pháp chi phí cung cấp điện đề xuất có thể loại bỏ phần lớn yếu tố làm giảm 0,09 USD EPS hiện tại từ ERM, mặc dù kết quả thực tế vẫn sẽ phụ thuộc vào điều kiện thị trường điện và các biến số khác.

Về việc tài trợ cho khoản đầu tư vốn bổ sung, Avista chỉ ra rằng cơ cấu nguồn vốn có khả năng sẽ gần mức 50% nợ và 50% vốn chủ sở hữu. Tiền mặt thu được từ các khoản đầu tư khác có thể làm giảm nhu cầu gọi vốn chủ sở hữu.

Đối với dự án North Plains Connector, ban lãnh đạo hiện kỳ vọng tiến trình hướng tới một thỏa thuận chính thức sẽ diễn ra vào nửa đầu năm 2027 thay vì vào cuối năm 2026. Tổng dự án ước tính khoảng 6 tỷ USD và tỷ lệ sở hữu tiềm năng của Avista sẽ khoảng 10%.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc đạt được mức cao của khoảng tăng trưởng lợi nhuận dài hạn từ 4% đến 6% nhiều khả năng sẽ đòi hỏi các khoản đầu tư bổ sung được hiện thực hóa. Những khoản này có thể bao gồm các dự án truyền tải khu vực, phụ tải thương mại và khai khoáng tiềm năng, các nguồn lực được chọn thông qua cuộc thầu RFP liên quan đến IRP tiếp theo và dự án North Plains Connector.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Avista Corporation Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Please note, this call may be recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Stacey Walters, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

Stacey Wenz

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for Avista's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our earnings and third quarter Form 10-Q were released premarket this morning. You can find both documents in this presentation on our website. Joining me today are Avista Corp, President and CEO, Heather Rosentrater; and Senior Vice President, CFO, Treasurer and Chief Strategy Officer, Kevin Christie.

We will make forward-looking statements during this call. These involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which are subject to change. Various factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations we discuss in today's call. Please refer to our Form 10-K for 2025 and our 10-Q for the third quarter of 2026 for a full discussion of these risk factors. Both are available on our website. On this call, we will also discuss non-GAAP utility earnings. Our third quarter earnings presentation is posted on our website and includes definitions and reconciliations for non-GAAP disclosures.

Our non-GAAP utility earnings are comprised of results from our Avista Utilities and AEL&P segments. The investment gains and losses that have historically made up the majority of our nonregulated business earnings can be significant but they are difficult to predict and outside management's control. Non-GAAP utility earnings facilitate meaningful evaluation of our operating performance across periods and reflects management's core utility focus. We believe it is important to discuss these utility results in addition to our GAAP results.

Let's begin this morning with a recap of the financial results presented in today's press release. Our consolidated earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $2.11 per diluted share compared to $1.51 for the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our consolidated third quarter 2026 earnings were $0.57 per diluted share compared to $0.36 in the third quarter of 2025. Our non-GAAP utility earnings for the first 3 quarters of 2026 were $1.76 per diluted share, compared to $1.67 per diluted share in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Our third quarter 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings were $0.38 per diluted share compared to $0.37 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2025. Now I'll turn the call over to Heather.

Heather Rosentrater

Thank you, Stacey. I first want to provide a follow-up to our second quarter earnings call where we discuss the devastating Spokane complex wildfires our communities experienced in August. Although it is clear that recovery will be a long road, I am happy to share that our community has experienced an incredible amount of support and that our community itself has shown up in a wide variety of ways to help those impacted. Our hearts continue to be with those who are starting that long road to recovery.

And with the third quarter now complete and with a welcome transition to fall, I'm encouraged by the progress we've made advancing the priorities that support reliable service for customers and sustainable long-term value. Through the first 3 quarters of the year, we continue to strengthen reliability and resilience, through grid hardening, wildfire preparedness and enhanced outage response capabilities. We also advanced resource planning and clean energy solutions, including progress on our 2027 Integrated Resource Plan. Through strong strategic execution and performance on Avista Utilities through the first 3 quarters of the year, we are well positioned to deliver on our commitments for the remainder of the year. Given that the Spokane complex wildfires were still active during our second quarter earnings call, we didn't have a full understanding of the overall impact to our facilities at that time. While the overall community impact has been devastating, ultimately, the impact of our facilities was not material. We also understand that each of these fires was human caused, and we are confident that our facilities were not involved.

As I mentioned, for the neighborhoods affected, recovery and rebuilding will be a lengthy process, and some of our own infrastructure can't be replaced until rebuilding begins. We anticipate that in some cases, customer rebuilding efforts could take multiple years, and we stand ready to reconnect customers when it's possible to do so. Throughout recovery, our focus will remain where it always is. Providing safe, reliable and affordable service to meet customers' needs when they arise. Affordability continues to be a top priority at Avista. Understanding the financial pressures our customers face is fundamental to developing effective strategies to provide assistance where it's needed most. With enhanced data, we have better insights to guide resource allocation as well as direct the programs we support and future investments across our service territory.

As we look ahead to a changing energy landscape, this focus on affordability better enables us to meet customers' needs today and prepare to serve them in the future. We appreciate that identifying ways to support customer affordability is a shared priority among our investors, our customers and ourselves. It is important to note that one of our key strategies to support customer affordability is responsible growth, and to support long-term responsible growth. After listening to customer and community feedback and to allow time for us to participate in a broader coordinated planning effort, we announced in September that we have paused processing new large data center applications that require significant new generation or transmission investments. This pause respects the moratorium in place in several local jurisdictions including the City of Spokane and Spokane County, and the proceeding at the Washington Commission.

We expect the pause to last at least 12 months of state regulators and local government's advanced policy and regulatory frameworks. This is not the withdrawal from potential growth opportunities. As I shared, it is one of our main strategies to support affordability. We remain engaged with regulators, policymakers, local jurisdictions and other stakeholders, even as we strengthen our own governance, customer qualification and planning processes to support informed investment decision making into the future. As we take the time to strengthen these areas, we remain committed to protecting existing customers and maintaining safe, reliable service. Even after the pause, we won't move forward with the new large data center customer unless we are confident they will cover their own costs. And in addition to covering their own costs, that they will make significant contributions to support affordability for our existing customers. And we won't move forward with the new large load customer unless we're confident that our customers' reliability will be maintained or enhanced.

Any future projects must meet regulatory and public interest requirements while supporting responsible growth that benefits our communities over the long run. In order to strengthen assurances related to these customer protection commitments, we are exploring regulatory mechanisms and other policy options that can provide existing customers with more confidence that they won't be burdened with costs associated with serving potential new large data centers. Although we have paused processing new large data center request that require significant new generation of transmission investments, we are fortunate to have other growth opportunities associated with customers evaluating expansion, representing commercial, manufacturing and mining sectors. Each of these opportunities has a different time line and taken together over the long term, prospective load associated with these opportunities would be approximately 85 megawatts.

We are grateful to be part of these activities that strengthen the local economy and existing customer affordability, and which could be additive to our normal organic growth. As we plan for the future, we remain focused on reliable, affordable energy that meets customer needs and supports our clean energy goals. We are moving forward with the projects selected to advance through our all-source request for proposal or RFP, including demand response agreements expected to provide up to 35 megawatts toward our 40-megawatt distributed energy goal by 2030, along with key renewable energy projects. Work began this year on our next Integrated Resource Plan, or IRP. We expect to file the 2027 IRP late this year or early next year. As our peak day resource needs continue to outpace earlier predictions, the draft preferred resource strategy includes additional peaking resources. We expect another RFP to occur soon after the filing of our 2027 IRP.

Together, this progress on our operational priorities and effective cost management reinforce our confidence. We remain focused on executing the priorities that support reliable and affordable service for customers, constructive long-term growth and sound financial performance. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin for additional discussion of our financial results.

Kevin Christie

Thanks, Heather. We continue to execute well across our business through the third quarter with a focus on delivering results at the utility and managing our costs. Our utility earnings in 2026 reflects the benefits of our cost discipline and improved cost recovery. We remain on track as we move into the final quarter of the year. At our other businesses, net income was $29 million in the first 3 quarters of 2026, compared to a loss of $13 million in the first 3 quarters of 2025. Market values have recovered from the valuation losses experienced in 2025. In 2026 -- in June of 2026, one of the businesses in an EIP fund, ERock Inc., conducted an initial public offering.

Our third quarter consolidated results reflect the associated increase in valuation. Among our initiatives, regulatory outcomes are key to our progress. For our 2026 Washington general rate case, we appreciate the party's engagement and constructive hearings in September. Final briefs have been filed and we expect the commission to issue a decision in mid-December. As we look ahead, we anticipate filing our next general rate cases in Idaho in the first quarter of 2027. Our next filing in Oregon will take place under the state's new multiyear rate plan legislation and is slated for the fall in 2027. In accordance with Oregon Commission rules, we will file a 5-year rate plan. We continue to invest in our utility infrastructure to support customers. We expect capital expenditures at Avista Utilities of $615 million in 2026. Through September 30, we have invested $496 million in our capital projects this year.

For 2027 through 2031, we expect base capital expenditures of $3.6 billion. This includes the projects selected from our 2025 RFP expected in 2028. We continue to evaluate incremental capital investment opportunities that support serving our customers safely and reliability, including addressing the growing peak day resource needs Heather mentioned. Given the pause we have taken in both our existing MOU with the data center developer and in processing any large data center applications, we do not include any compute related growth in our capital plan at this time. Turning to liquidity. We issued $58 million of common stock in the first 3 quarters of the year. Subject to market conditions, we expect to issue up to $15 million of additional common stock in 2026. We issued $230 million of long-term debt in '26, and we do not expect further issuances of long-term debt this year.

Due to increased regulatory deferrals and delayed recovery, we plan to obtain a short-term loan of up to $100 million during the fourth quarter. In 2027, we expect to issue approximately $220 million of long-term debt and up to $110 million of common stock. We are affirming our non-GAAP utility earnings guidance with a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share for '26. We expect our earnings to be in line with the midpoint. Our guidance includes an expected negative impact from the Energy Recovery Mechanism, or ERM of $0.09 in the 90% customer, 10% company sharing band, which we have recognized in the first 3 quarters of the year. Our expected long-term return on equity at Avista Utilities is approximately 9% excluding any impact from the ERM. This reflects expected structural lag of 0.6%. Over the long term, we continue to expect that our earnings will grow 4% to 6% and from the midpoint of our 2025 earnings guidance.

Throughout 2026, we kept our focus on delivering results at the utility, and that focus won't shift as we look to the remainder of the fourth quarter and on into 2027. We remain committed to financial strength, making smart investments in our infrastructure that deliver long-term value to both the communities we serve as well as our shareholders. Now we'd be happy to answer your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo Securities.

Phần hỏi đáp

Whitney Mutalemwa

This is Whitney Mutalemwa on for Shar. So on the power cost, so staff was constructive on your new forecasting method and on updating the baseline every year, if the order adapts that, how much of that roughly $0.09 of power cost drag in this year's guidance should likely go away in '27?

Kevin Christie

Well, it's certainly difficult to predict what might happen in power supply markets as we look forward. And if we were able to see a commission order supporting our power supply costs as filed then we would see largely an elimination of that $0.09. Now again, there are a number of variables that could come into play as we look forward, but the intent would be to get the ERM back to closer to 0, certainly within the dead band.

Whitney Mutalemwa

Of course. And then just another one. So obviously, this update flags incremental capital for growing peak day resource needs with the RFP projects moving forward and the '27 resource plan underway. Could you just give us an overview of what we can expect and timing of that opportunity?

Kevin Christie

Are you asking particularly around the '27 IRP?

Whitney Mutalemwa

Yes.

Kevin Christie

So with the '27 IRP, it's important to note that it's in draft form at this point in time. We'd expect to file the final version towards the end of the year or the beginning of next year. And then what would happen, and assuming that the current draft preferred resource plan moves forward into that final filed copy, we would then expect to need incremental resources on a peak day basis, and we would go out within the next few months after that with an RFP, all-source RFP to help bring on those peak day resources.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Lonegan with Barclays.

Michael Lonegan

So you touched on the ERM, but just more broadly in the Washington rate case, you concluded post-hearing briefs. We're coming up on a final decision next month. I know there's some disagreement on the multiyear rate plan. Just wondering if broadly, you could touch upon some of the key debates and how you're feeling about them supporting your plan?

Kevin Christie

Yes, thanks for the question. We have had, I would say, a very constructive process as we worked with the parties throughout the case. And I'm proud of what our [ team ] has done for putting forth a high-quality case, a case that supports what we need to support our customers overall. And certainly, there are issues. You highlight one of them, the back and forth there between the 4-year and perhaps a 2-year was a pretty significant one, but not surprising at all given that this is the first 4-year that's been filed under the multiyear legislation. And as we all know, when you move into something that's new and different, there are different perspectives that come forward.

And so we appreciate how the parties have looked at it and are a little uneasy about the 4-year nature of this case. We would point out years 3 and 4, although I don't want to diminish the importance from an affordability perspective, years 3 and 4 are relatively modest. And given the preponderance of evidence that we put forth, we think we've given the commission an opportunity to prove that for you. The other issues that come up are pretty normal things in our rate cases, ROE and there's a lot of attention on ROE right now. We have given, I think, through our expert witnesses and the need from a risk perspective, the commission an opportunity to approve what we put forth there and we'll see how that shakes out.

And the rest of it is generally around capital recovery. We've got a good track record in the past around what's called provisional capital, but that got a fair amount of attention. And then we had some tracking mechanisms either existing or a new tracking mechanism that had attention as well. So those were all discussed in the hearing, and we briefed on those. And then fortunately, in the next 6 weeks or so, we'll hear from the commission.

Michael Lonegan

And then you talked about potential incremental CapEx. Just wondering how we should think about the mix of debt and equity financing. I think in the past, you talked about 50-50. I know you're doing a little less equity this year than planned and you issued '27. Do you have an FFO to debt target over the course of your plan?

Kevin Christie

Yes. We currently want to of course, stay at the rating that we're at with the rating agencies. And so we have, as we look to our forecast, the ability to support that comfortably. And so that isn't something barring, something unforeseen that we're tremendously worried about. When it comes to expected equity issuances on a go-forward basis, when we indicate that we have incremental capital expenditure opportunities, it's likely near 50-50. But I do want to highlight that with some of our other investments, as they might return proceeds back in the form of cash, that could lighten the equity needs that we have. And that's why we typically communicate an up-to number. for you so you can have something to model at what might be the high end.

Michael Lonegan

And then lastly for me, on the North Plains Connector project, I know it likely falls outside your 5-year plan. I think a number of months ago, you signed an MOU. Just wondering when you're expecting a definitive agreement there and then also the size of your CapEx opportunity on the potential 10% stake.

Kevin Christie

Yes, that one continues to move out a bit. I think we would -- we initially had hoped by the end of this year. I think it's likely first half of next year at this point in time as we work with all the partners. It's always a little bit more complex when you have as many potential owners as we have. But we're confident that we can find a way to move forward with everyone and then midyear give you an update, hopefully, on that. And the overall capital for the build-out would be about $6 billion, and we would be roughly 10%.

Operator

Our next question comes from David Rold with Bank of America.

Matthew David Rold

Question on the Washington rate case. Once the new rates are in, how close do you expect your authorized return in 2027? Is lag still meaningful? Or does this mostly close the gap?

Kevin Christie

Yes. As we've mentioned in the past, we would expect, once we have a constructive rate case outcome in Washington, we have the Idaho case and the Oregon cases filed, and we get on the proper cadence there, and we continue to manage our costs importantly that we would expect a long-term return on equity of 9%. And that -- what that builds in is roughly 60 basis points of structural lag. Those are the costs that we're unable to recover through rates for various reasons. So 9% is our run rate as we look forward. And it also -- that also assumes that we're at the midpoint from an ERM perspective, meaning within the dead band and we have reset power supply costs at an appropriate level.

Matthew David Rold

And with rate base growing a little over 7%, what would it take to get you guys to the top end of your 4% to 6% growth range? What are the biggest factors holding back today?

Kevin Christie

Well, I think what we're going to need to see is some of those or most of those incremental investment opportunities that Heather alluded to and that we've mentioned in the past. We do see transmission investment potential out there in our region, both within and without outside of our service territory. We have incremental customer growth that we're seeing, and we hope to bring that to fruition.

Important to point out that as Heather mentioned, if we were able to bring those on, it's a handful or more of , commercial and mining loads that taken in total, again, if we were able to bring them all on, would raise our average day load by almost 10%. So that's an important investment if we're able to bring those over the finish line. And then on top of that, we need to see how both the RFP coming out of the next IRP shakes out and then thinking about that North Plains connector that we mentioned already.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Hark with Mizuho.

Chris Hark

I just had a question on the data center pause in Washington. Just any protections that would be required? Just any color you could give us on that? And then how large is that data center opportunity sitting behind the pause?

Heather Rosentrater

So related to the pause. We have our commitments, but we recognize that our customers may be looking for something stronger than our verbal commitments. I mean, we have been very clear and consistent on those commitments that any -- we wouldn't move forward unless it would any data center would cover their own costs and provide meaningful additional support for existing customers from an affordability perspective.

And we are -- so to help with those assurances, we are exploring whether having some kind of tariff at the state level or just engaging in policy discussions at the state level as well as those could provide additional assurances for our customers. Related to the level of request, that will likely evolve a lot over the next 12 months. So I think it's probably -- it's challenging to say right now where that might land at the end of 12 months, but we'll look to update as we get closer to that -- to the end of that pause.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Stacey Walters for closing remarks.

Stacey Wenz

Thank you all for joining us and for your interest in Avista. Have a great day.

Operator

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.