Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của Provident Financial Services (PFS): Doanh thu kỷ lục và mở rộng biên lợi nhuận

Provident Financial Services (NYSE: PFS) công bố doanh thu đạt mức kỷ lục và lợi nhuận điều chỉnh tăng trong quý 3 năm tài chính 2026, nhờ sự tăng trưởng của thu nhập lãi thuần, biên lãi ròng mở rộng cùng sức mạnh tiếp tục được duy trì ở mảng quản lý tài sản và bảo hiểm.

Điểm tin chính

• Lợi nhuận thuần điều chỉnh tăng 17,5% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 84 triệu USD, tương đương 0,65 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng. Lợi nhuận thuần báo cáo đạt 69 triệu USD, tương đương 0,53 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu, sau khi trừ một số khoản chi phí không cốt lõi.
• Tổng doanh thu hoạt động đạt mức kỷ lục 238 triệu USD. Thu nhập lãi thuần tăng 7% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên mức kỷ lục 208 triệu USD, trong khi thu nhập ngoài lãi đạt tổng cộng 30,5 triệu USD.
• Biên lãi thuần cốt lõi mở rộng 7 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước lên 3,16%. Ban quản lý dự báo biên lãi ròng cốt lõi sẽ mở rộng thêm 1–2 điểm cơ bản trong quý 4/2026.
• Tiền gửi cuối kỳ tăng 262 triệu USD, tương đương mức tăng 5,4% tính theo năm, trong khi dư nợ cho vay giữ để đầu tư tăng 124 triệu USD, tương đương mức tăng 2,5% tính theo năm.
• Ban quản lý duy trì mục tiêu tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay và tiền gửi cả năm ở mức 5%–6%. Công ty cũng dự báo tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay đạt 5%–6% cho năm 2027, tùy thuộc vào điều kiện thị trường và các tiêu chuẩn tín dụng.
• Chất lượng tài sản vẫn ổn định. Tài sản nợ xấu chiếm 55 điểm cơ bản tổng tài sản, và tỷ lệ xóa nợ thuần đạt 5 điểm cơ bản cho cả quý lẫn lũy kế từ đầu năm.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Lợi nhuận báo cáo bao gồm khoản lỗ 17,5 triệu USD do tất toán nợ liên quan đến việc đẩy nhanh phân bổ kế toán mua lại, 3,7 triệu USD chi phí chuyển đổi hệ thống cốt lõi và 465.000 USD chi phí chấm dứt hợp đồng thuê sớm.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Các tài khoản doanh nghiệp và chính quyền địa phương là động lực thúc đẩy tăng trưởng tiền gửi trong quý. Tiền gửi không kỳ hạn không trả lãi tăng 5%, và ban quản lý kỳ vọng xu hướng mở rộng này sẽ tiếp tục, mặc dù lãi suất thị trường cao hơn có thể khiến một phần số dư chuyển sang các sản phẩm có trả lãi.

Chi phí tiền gửi biên tổng thể đạt khoảng 3,25%, so với mức 2,85%–2,95% trong quý trước. Tổng chi phí tiền gửi tăng 10 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước lên 2,02%, trong khi chi phí tiền gửi có trả lãi tăng 13 điểm cơ bản lên 2,50%.

Provident đã giải ngân khoảng 550 triệu USD cho vay thương mại trong quý. Tổng danh mục dự án cho vay thương mại vẫn duy trì trên 3 tỷ USD, trong khi danh mục dự án sau khi điều chỉnh tỷ lệ hoàn tất đạt 1,7 tỷ USD. Cho vay thương mại & công nghiệp (C&I), thị trường tầm trung và cho vay chuyên biệt chiếm hơn một nửa danh mục dự án. Lãi suất danh mục dự án đang tiến gần mức 6,5%, cao hơn lợi suất danh mục hiện hữu là 5,94%.

Doanh thu từ mảng quản lý tài sản và bảo hiểm tăng lần lượt 6% và 20% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Quy mô tài sản quản lý mảng quản lý tài sản tương đối ổn định ở mức 4,4 tỷ USD. Thu nhập ngoài lãi quý 3 cũng hưởng lợi từ 3,5 triệu USD thu nhập tăng thêm từ bảo hiểm nhân thọ do ngân hàng sở hữu.

Ngân hàng đã hoàn tất việc chuyển đổi hệ thống cốt lõi trong kỳ nghỉ cuối tuần Ngày Lễ Lao động. Ban quản lý cho biết nền tảng mới sẽ hỗ trợ khả năng xử lý dữ liệu, hiệu quả hoạt động và quá trình ra quyết định. Provident cũng đã phát triển một trợ lý AI nội bộ tên là B, được dùng để cung cấp thông tin cho nhân viên trong quá trình chuyển đổi.

Triển vọng của ban quản lý

• Mục tiêu tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay và tiền gửi cho cả năm 2026 vẫn được duy trì ở mức 5%–6%.
• Ban quản lý dự báo thu nhập ngoài lãi quý 4/2026 đạt khoảng 29 triệu USD.
• Chi phí hoạt động cốt lõi quý 4 dự kiến ở mức 118 triệu–120 triệu USD, cộng thêm khoảng 1 triệu USD chi phí chuyển đổi hệ thống cốt lõi cuối cùng.
• Thuế suất thực tế cả năm dự kiến vào khoảng 28%.
• Ban quản lý tiếp tục hướng tới mục tiêu tỷ suất sinh lời trên tài sản cốt lõi ở mức 1,2%–1,3% và tỷ suất sinh lời trên vốn cổ phần phổ thông hữu hình bình quân ở mức khoảng 15%.
• Giả định Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed) tăng lãi suất vào tháng 12/2026, ban quản lý dự báo biên lãi thuần cốt lõi sẽ mở rộng 1–2 điểm cơ bản trong quý 4.
• Chi phí cốt lõi dự kiến kết thúc năm 2026 ở mức khoảng 474 triệu USD. Ban quản lý dự báo mức tăng trưởng chi phí năm 2027 sẽ từ 3,5%–3,75% so với mức cơ sở đó.
• Ban quản lý dự báo tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay năm 2027 đạt 5%–6%, đồng thời nhấn mạnh rằng các tiêu chuẩn tín dụng sẽ không bị nới lỏng để đuổi theo quy mô.

Khoảng 3,3 tỷ USD dư nợ cho vay dự kiến sẽ điều chỉnh lại lãi suất trong 12 tháng tới, tăng từ khoảng 5,75% lên khoảng 6,5% hoặc cao hơn. Khoảng 350 triệu USD chứng khoán cũng dự kiến sẽ điều chỉnh lãi suất trong giai đoạn đó. Ban quản lý ước tính lợi suất tăng thêm sẽ đạt hơn 100 điểm cơ bản trên cả hai danh mục.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Lãi suất cao hơn đang làm tăng chi phí huy động tiền gửi và có thể khiến số dư dịch chuyển từ các tài khoản không trả lãi sang các sản phẩm có chi phí cao hơn. Ban quản lý ước tính rằng đợt tăng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản ban đầu có thể thu hẹp biên lãi ròng 1–2 điểm cơ bản nếu kỳ hạn dài của đường cong lợi suất không thay đổi, mặc dù mô tả bảng cân đối kế toán về cơ bản là trung tính với lãi suất.

Tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay trong quý 4 có thể bị ảnh hưởng bởi các khoản trả nợ gốc trước hạn lớn hơn dự kiến. Lãi suất cao hơn cũng gây áp lực lên số dư cho vay kho thế chấp và có thể làm giảm hoạt động cho vay nếu lãi suất tăng thêm đáng kể.

Tài sản nợ xấu ở mức 55 điểm cơ bản tổng tài sản. Ban quản lý dự kiến bốn khoản tín dụng, bao gồm một khoản liên quan đến nhà ở cho người cao tuổi, sẽ được xử lý vào cuối năm. Nếu không tính các khoản tín dụng này, ước tính tài sản nợ xấu sẽ là 23 điểm cơ bản tổng tài sản.

Tỷ lệ bao phủ trích lập dự phòng rủi ro tăng 2 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước lên 94 điểm cơ bản. Ban quản lý cho rằng việc tăng dự phòng gần đây một phần là do dự phòng cụ thể chứ không phải do sự suy giảm trên diện rộng, đồng thời cho biết hiện tại không thấy lo ngại về tín dụng trên toàn bộ danh mục.

Điểm nổi bật trong phần Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích

Triển vọng tiền gửi: Ban quản lý kỳ vọng tiền gửi và số dư không trả lãi sẽ tiếp tục tăng trưởng thông qua mảng ngân hàng thương mại, quản lý vốn, các sáng kiến doanh nghiệp nhỏ và các phân khúc chuyên biệt mục tiêu. Tuy nhiên, tốc độ và cơ cấu sẽ phụ thuộc vào lãi suất thị trường.

Tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay: Ban quản lý thể hiện sự tự tin vào sự đa dạng và khả năng chuyển đổi dự kiến của danh mục dự án cho vay thương mại. Công ty dự báo tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay gần 6% cho năm 2026 và 5%–6% cho năm 2027, đồng thời lưu ý rằng việc trả nợ trước hạn có thể ảnh hưởng đến tăng trưởng thuần.

Hoàn trả vốn cho cổ đông: Provident đã mua lại khoảng 370.000 cổ phiếu. Ban quản lý cho biết việc mua lại cổ phiếu được đánh giá theo cơ hội, với ngưỡng giá hiện tại vào khoảng 22 USD dựa trên khuôn khổ hoàn vốn ba năm.

M&A: Ban quản lý mô tả các thương vụ thâu tóm là một lựa chọn thay vì là yêu cầu bắt buộc. Bất kỳ giao dịch nào cũng cần mang lại sự tương thích về văn hóa và giá trị chiến lược, trong khi tăng trưởng tự thân vẫn là trọng tâm chính.

Quản lý bảng cân đối kế toán: Ngân hàng tiếp tục hướng tới tỷ lệ dư nợ cho vay trên tổng tiền gửi ở mức 97%–103%. Ban quản lý cho biết việc đạt mức thấp hơn trong khoảng này không nhất thiết là kết quả mang lại lợi nhuận cao nhất và dự định tài trợ cho tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay thông qua sự kết hợp của các danh mục tiền gửi cốt lõi.

Toàn văn cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Provident Financial Services Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Michael Perito, Head of Investor Relations. Michael, please go ahead.

Michael Perito

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. Today's presenters are President and CEO, Tony Labozzetta; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Adriano Duarte. Before beginning their review of our financial results, we ask that you please take note of our standard caution as to any forward-looking statements that may be made during the course of today's call. Our full disclaimer is contained in last evening's earnings release, which has been posted to the Investor Relations page on our website, provident.

bank.

Now I'd like to hand it off to Tony Labozzetta, who will offer his perspective on our third quarter. Tony?

Anthony Labozzetta

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today to discuss our third quarter results. Provident continued its strong performance, delivering another quarter of solid financial results with core net income of $84 million or $0.65 per diluted share. Our annualized adjusted return on average assets was 1.3%, and our adjusted return on average tangible common equity was over 16% for the sixth consecutive quarter. Total operating revenues of $238 million marked another record quarter and continue to be driven by good growth in both our spread and fee-based businesses. Year-over-year, net interest income grew 7% and our wealth and insurance revenues grew 6% and 20%, respectively.

Our adjusted pre-provision net revenue reached a record $120 million, representing $0.92 per share and an annualized core PPNR return on average assets of 1.85%. Over Labor Day weekend, the bank completed its core conversion as planned. This was a significant project that touched virtually every aspect of our bank. I'm extremely proud of our team for executing with excellence on this critical initiative. Their planning, collaboration, effort and focus on the customer experience resulted in a very successful conversion. Our strong core profitability and ability to drive positive operating leverage while making significant investments such as our core conversion represents one of the key elements of our strategy.

Balance sheet trends during the quarter showed continued positive momentum, keeping us on track to achieve the growth we guided to for the year. We saw solid expansion during the quarter in noninterest-bearing deposits and more broadly, our core business deposits, which drove deposit growth over 5% annualized. The bank remains focused on growing our deposits to fund our strong lending activity. We have several impactful deposit initiatives in flight, particularly in our small business group and within certain targeted specialty deposit verticals. Commercial loan balances grew 3% annualized in the third quarter, which, as a reminder, is typically a seasonally slower quarter for our business.

In addition to normal seasonality, the recent rise in interest rates also weighed slightly on our mortgage warehouse balances. Overall, activity and loan growth remained positive. We funded approximately $550 million of commercial loans during the quarter, and our pipeline remains over $3 billion. For the third consecutive quarter, our pipeline remains well diversified with C&I, middle market and specialty representing over 50% of the total. We are pacing to achieve approximately 6% loan growth for the year, although we remain mindful that payoffs in the fourth quarter could have an impact on net growth. Asset quality metrics were stable when compared to the prior quarter and remain at low levels. We continue to make good progress on the senior housing relationship that migrated to nonperforming status earlier this year and anticipate a satisfactory resolution by year-end. Adjusting our nonperforming assets for the resolution of these 4 credits, our NPAs would be only 23 basis points of total assets.

Overall, asset quality trends remain favorable. Commercial delinquencies have improved and net charge-offs were only 5 basis points for both this quarter and year-to-date. The bank has strong balance sheet, and we continue to actively manage our interest rate risk profile. During the quarter, we saw improvement in both our loan-to-deposit and CET concentration ratios. Our CET1 ratio grew to 10.9%. And during the past few weeks, the bank has been buying back stock due to increased market volatility. Overall, I'm incredibly proud of the hard work of our employees. Our strong performance is a direct result of the culture we have at Provident.

Now I would like to turn the call over to Adriano for his comments on our financial performance. Adriano?

Adriano Duarte

Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. As Tony noted, our adjusted net income for the third quarter was $84 million or $0.65 per share, which increased 17.5% versus the third quarter of 2025. This produced an adjusted return on average assets of 1.3% and a core return on average tangible equity of 16.6%, adjusting for the amortization of intangibles. During the quarter, we had several noncore expense items that impacted our reported net income of $69 million or $0.53 per share. These items included a $17.5 million loss on extinguishment of debt due to accelerated amortization of purchase accounting, $3.7 million of core conversion costs and $465,000 of early lease termination costs.

Adjusted pre-provision net revenue was nearly $120 million or an annualized 1.85% of average assets, a 10% increase from the $109 million or 1.76% of average assets reported for the third quarter of 2025. Our record revenue of $238 million was driven by record net interest income of $208 million and noninterest income of $30.5 million. Average earning assets increased $341 million or an annualized 5.8% versus the trailing quarter, with average yield on assets increasing 7 basis points to 5.68%. Interest-bearing deposit costs were 2.5%, an increase of 13 basis points versus the trailing quarter, while total deposit costs were 2.02%, an increase of 10 basis points.

Our core net interest margin expanded 7 basis points to 3.16%, while our reported net interest margin expanded 2 basis points to 3.5%. We are currently modeling rate increase by the Federal Reserve in December of 2026 and expect core margin to expand 1 to 2 basis points in the fourth quarter. Period-end loans held for investment increased $124 million or an annualized 2.5% for the quarter. Our pull-through adjusted loan pipeline at quarter end was $1.7 billion. The pipeline rate is approaching 6.5% and remains accretive relative to our current portfolio yield of 5.94%. Period-end deposits increased $262 million for the quarter or an annualized 5.4%. The increase was driven by commercial and municipal deposit growth. Our loan-to-deposit ratio improved quarter-over-quarter to 101.8%, and we continue to target a 97% to 103% range on this ratio.

Asset quality remains strong with nonperforming assets representing 55 basis points of total assets. We recorded a provision for credit losses of $5.2 million for the quarter, driven mainly by loan growth, changes in portfolio mix and required specific reserves. This brought our allowance coverage ratio up 2 basis points from the trailing quarter to 94 basis points. Noninterest income of $30.5 million was slightly ahead of expectations, partly due to elevated BOLI income of $3.5 million. In addition, we continue to see solid performance from both our Insurance and Wealth Management divisions. Wealth Management AUM was relatively stable during the quarter at $4.4 billion. Total noninterest expense increased $140.7 million in the third quarter, reflecting nonoperating expenses I previously noted. After adjusting for these items, core noninterest expense was approximately $119 million for the quarter. Adjusted expenses to average assets and the efficiency ratio were stable from the trailing quarter at 1.84% and 49.9%, respectively.

We project quarterly core operating expenses of approximately $118 million to $120 million in the fourth quarter, with the increased range most notably driven by higher incentive accruals due to our stronger financial performance. In addition to normal expenses, we will be incurring final costs associated with the successful core conversion of approximately $1 million in the fourth quarter. Our continued sound financial performance supported earning asset growth and again drove strong capital formation, excluding changes in AOCI. Tangible book value per share decreased $0.26 this quarter to $16.15, and our tangible common equity ratio decreased slightly to 8.4% quarter-over-quarter.

Lastly, I'd like to share a couple of additional updates with our guidance. We continue to expect full year loan and deposit growth of 5% to 6% with noninterest income of approximately $29 million in the fourth quarter. We expect a full year effective tax rate of approximately 28%, and we continue to target a core ROA of 1.2% to 1.3% with a mid-teens return on average tangible common equity.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we'd be happy to respond to any questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Feddie Strickland with Hovde.

Phần hỏi đáp

Feddie Strickland

Just wanted to start on deposits, if we could. You guys have been able to consistently grow DDAs for 2 quarters in a row at this point. Can we see that start to flatten out with higher rates and maybe some mix shift? Or can you continue growing that given the momentum you talked about last quarter in treasury and some other areas?

Anthony Labozzetta

Well, our expectation that deposits will continue to grow. Obviously, market dynamics like changing rates may make the cost of acquisition a little higher than they presently are. But the strategies that we have both in production now and in flight, we expect that the focus -- the laser focus that we have on deposits to continue to show growth in the upcoming quarters.

Feddie Strickland

Understood, can the noninterest-bearing balances grow from here, you think? Or are they relatively flat?

Anthony Labozzetta

Well, we had a 5% growth this quarter in noninterest-bearing demand. The focus that we have in our commercial lending side and our treasury management side, we think we can continue to grow. Now can I promise that it's going to be 5%. I think changing rates will also impact that as well. But we still expect to have some expansion in that, obviously, depending on what happens to market rates and the delta between 0 and the offering rate.

Adriano Duarte

Exactly. It may create a little bit of a transition from NIB to other deposit lines. But as Tony said, I think the production will definitely be there.

Feddie Strickland

And then just switching gears to loans. It just seems like a relatively stable pipeline linked quarter. You reiterated the guide here. Is it fair to assume we see loan growth maybe pick back up in the fourth quarter? And I also just want to ask if you're starting to see paydowns slow at all with higher rates.

Anthony Labozzetta

Yes. I mean we're pretty -- when it comes to the commercial loan pipeline overall, I think we're very confident in not only its pull-through, but -- and its diversity and mix that's in that pipeline. I think rates would have to move -- I would say, more than 50 basis points and depending on which part of the curve moves. Obviously, if the short part of the Fed moves, we might see some reduction in activity beyond the 50 basis point move in more of the C&I type loans. Obviously, the treasury curve moves, we can see that on the term loans like, et cetera. But right now, we feel pretty strong about our pipeline, the pull-through, the level that it's at, the activity that we're seeing flow in to replace the closed and funded business. And I think, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, I think we're seeing a 6% growth level. Obviously, I have to put a caveat that if we see prepayments beyond what we're anticipating, that could impact that number. But right now, it's looking good. But I will stress one more thing.

Volume by itself is not important. I think we haven't spent one bit on credit structure. We continue to deal with some of the most notable sponsors. So we're feeling pretty good, not only about the level of production, but the quality of that production. I just wanted to reiterate.

Feddie Strickland

Just one more quick one, if I could, on accretion. Is there any significant change to that number? I think you had about $20 million, if my math is right this quarter.

Adriano Duarte

Should tick down a little bit, Feddie, as prepayments have slowed down on some of the CRE loans. We're projecting for the next 12 months around 60% to 62%.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Switzer with KBW.

Timothy Switzer

Real quick, sorry, Adriano. Can you repeat what the expected purchase accounting is going forward?

Adriano Duarte

So for securities and loans, we anticipate somewhere between $50 million and $52 million for the next 12 months. So about $15 million a quarter.

Timothy Switzer

I was $50 million or $60 million. Got it. 5-0. And then my other question -- Sorry, 6-0, my apologies. You guys have talked a good amount about the benefits to core conversion, particularly in the commercial part of the business. Now that it's completed, could you maybe discuss what some of the immediate benefits are already have been and what the near-term opportunities going forward will be? And how much of this is efficiency focused versus revenue opportunities?

Anthony Labozzetta

That's great. That's a good question. I think the first thing I will draw back on in my comments, I couldn't do enough justice to how well that conversion took place. I think our team did an outstanding job. I would call it brilliant execution all the way across on how collaborative that was. Now that that's behind us, it's going to allow us to continue our focus on the projects that we have in flight. Some of the things I'll point to is our data capabilities. We have a big project to enhance our data capabilities, which is going to obviously increase efficiencies. It's going to increase decision-making power within our organization. When it comes -- we had probably over a year now, we've had a governance council around AI.

That particularly is to ensure that the -- any initiatives that we have are aligned with the business use cases. It's worked well. We've put -- we've developed our own AI agent that we call B as part of our conversion, which I think it was very instrumental to the success in terms of empowering our organization with knowledge and answers so that we could have a great customer experience in the conversion. And so moving forward, we expect to use our platform with enhanced data, enhanced -- to continue to do these in-play projects that we have and build along our loan capabilities and et cetera. So I can keep going, but I think I gave you the gist of what we're trying to accomplish.

Timothy Switzer

Yes. That was great color. I appreciate it. And then one last one, another follow-up on the NIM. Given the impact of rate hikes near term, you guys are a little liability sensitive, I feel like. But longer term, does that change over time? Is there like a catch-up on loan repricing or anything? And how should we think about the trajectory of the margin if we get, say, like 2 or 3 hikes and then the Fed just kind of settles down for a little bit?

Adriano Duarte

Yes. So I mean, our balance sheet position is mostly neutral across the board, both rates down, rates up. Typically, we may see 1 to 2 basis point rate compression with a 25 basis point rate hike, but that takes into account no movement on the longer end of the curve. And I think we have enough management strategies to sustain a pretty stable margin across all. Basis points expansion in the margin with the rates.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Moss with Raymond James.

Stephen Moss

Maybe just following up on expenses and the investments going forward. Just kind of curious like I know you guys are getting into planning season for '27, but just how you guys are thinking about the cadence of expense growth in '27.

Adriano Duarte

So on a core basis, Steve, I mean, we expect to finish out the year right around $474 million in total and probably a growth between 3.5% and 3.75% off of that into 2027.

Anthony Labozzetta

And what I would add to that is some of the projects that I talked about that are in flight are all within that paradigm that AD just discussed. So -- and again, positive operating leverage is a big focus for us. So as we invest, we expect that revenue has to mass the revenue that we're producing right now.

Stephen Moss

Right. No, you guys there. That's helpful. And then in terms of just thinking about the back book repricing here, just kind of curious, is there any step-up in cash flows in '27 that maybe helps the margin?

Adriano Duarte

In '27, it's kind of hard to say, right? When rates up, we actually see a little bit of a slowdown, but we still have about just on natural maturities and a pretty conservative prepayment assumption, about $3.3 billion in loans repricing over the next 12 months, we're going from about 5.75% to, let's say, 6.5% or north of that. On the securities side, about 350 -- sorry, about $350 million for the year that we anticipate repricing in the next 12 months.

Anthony Labozzetta

Yes. And the only thing I'd add, Steve, is we're still seeing a good pickup on rate on the investment side as well. So really both parts of the earning asset leverage are still in place as we move into 2027 in terms of seeing pickup on yields to help offset some of the funding cost rise that we've seen in the last 90 to 100 days.

Adriano Duarte

Exactly. On a core basis, we're looking at north of 100 basis points pickup on each one of those line items.

Stephen Moss

Appreciate that color there. And then just in terms of thinking about credit. I mean, hear you guys in terms of the credit resolution. The reserve has kind of started to drift up a little bit over the last couple of quarters from the lows. Just thinking about modeling this going forward, obviously, a more greater C&I mix, kind of do we think that cadence of reserve ratio is steadily higher over the next 4 to 5 quarters?

Anthony Labozzetta

We've been pretty stable on a pool basis, right around 90 basis points. Some of that increase has actually been on some one-off specific reserves that we needed to put up. But on a C&I basis, obviously, something could pop in, but we don't see any broad possible issues.

Adriano Duarte

Yes. I mean I would add, Steve, that when it comes to that, it's not -- there's a lot of looksee's in the organization. On a quarterly basis, we stress different sectors of our loan portfolio from CRE or now into the C&I space. So -- and we do something we call Kramer, which is loan reviews within the teams. So we got a pretty good eye into what is coming down the pipe. And there's nothing that we see today that is in any way, shape or form rising to a level of concern. And in fact, as we solve for the 4 credits that I mentioned, which is working -- is going according to plan, and we expect it to move out by the end of the fourth quarter, our total NPA will be down to 23 basis points. And so it's looking pretty positive.

Operator

Your next question comes from Manuel Navas with Piper Sandler.

Manuel Navas

So the pipeline is pretty steady, pretty strong, and you're going to close the year out with solid loan growth. With rates not really impacting demand yet. Is this a good run rate into next year kind of thoughts on the opportunities for loan growth next year?

Anthony Labozzetta

Yes. I mean I think, yes, the answer -- the short answer is yes, but I want to frame it in the context that it's not a guess. I mean it's looking at what's happening in the market and looking at our capacity within our organization and the number of producers and teams that we have. So when you do the simple math of it, again, we could outpace that guidance depending on certain dynamics. But one thing we won't do is spend on our credit culture. So we do project in that 5% to 6% range for next year as well.

Manuel Navas

I appreciate that. The guide for fees in the fourth quarter, can you kind of walk through some of the line items there and how you get that $29 million?

Adriano Duarte

So both wealth management and our insurance lines, we expect it to grow versus the prior year, right? On the bank fee income, we should see a little bit of a pickup in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. We had some statement overlaps during the conversion process where we passed on some fees just to make sure the customer experience was what we needed to be. We have pretty strong SBA loan sales coming down the pipeline in the fourth quarter as well. BOLI is probably the one piece that was a little bit of an uptick in the third quarter, as we mentioned, about $3.5 million higher than the typical run rate.

Manuel Navas

And you talked about buyback being a little bit opportunistic here in October. Kind of -- can you update that? And what would be the right pace there? And how long can this extend that kind of opportunistic repurchase trend?

Adriano Duarte

Typically, we have a threshold that if we were acquiring ourselves. So the earn-back is typically 3 years. Right now, the threshold is about that $22 mark. So we're active when the opportunity arises and our stock price dips below that. Currently, we purchased back about 370,000 shares.

Manuel Navas

And so the price sensitivity is what would drive it?

Adriano Duarte

Yes, currently, that's how we approach it, Manuel.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens.

Matthew Breese

I wanted to talk a little bit about the loan-to-deposit ratio. You provided some guidance there. And I guess within that, maybe help me out on a couple of areas. What were municipal deposits at period end? I think the release noted they were down. I was just curious what the absolute level was. And what is the all-in incremental cost of deposits today? And how does that compare to a quarter ago?

Adriano Duarte

So the all-in is about 3.25%, Matt, where probably a quarter ago, we were around 285, 295. And the municipal deposits are right around $3.6 billion at this point. But typically, at quarter end, it's usually on the low side of those balances.

Matthew Breese

And just thinking about your loan-to-deposit ratio guide, I think it was what, 97% at the low end. Yes, if you were to hit that perfect, does that include growth in some of the higher cost areas like CDs and money market? Is that necessary to get there? Or is it more a function of loan growth?

Unknow Executive

Matt, I don't think that's how we think about it. That range is how we want to operate the business and manage our balance sheet to maximize our liquidity and our profitability. And so where we fall in that range and the reason the range is wide is because of some of that seasonality in the municipal business. But I think our intention just purely stated is to grow loans and fund them with core deposit initiatives that we have that's Tony and AD mentioned. And I think that's kind of how we think about growing the business.

Anthony Labozzetta

I would add one thing that our expectation is that we're growing deposits in every one of our verticals. And that includes noninterest-bearing and interest-bearing. We want to outperform in the areas of the key core deposits. But in order for us to maintain that -- to get to that 97% or sub 1, you're going to have to grow all of your deposit verticals. You can't do it with just one.

Adriano Duarte

And sometimes even being at that 97% may not be the most profitable approach to getting there.

Matthew Breese

I just wanted to get some sense for how to get there. And then stepping back, just on M&A, I'd be curious how active are conversations these days and maybe remind us in terms of size, geography and type of banks you'd be interested in partnering with.

Anthony Labozzetta

Great question. I mean I always have to start this question by putting -- as you've seen by our comments and our answers and our hyper focus as an organization is to make sure that organically, we're growing every business line within this bank. And I think we're doing so, and we're off to some good results. That being said, M&A is something that it is part of the job, right? You always have to have conversations. You have to know the markets around you. The way I would express it is we're fortunate enough to put ourselves in a position where we have optionality. The optionality would be that we don't -- we're not forced to do anything. If something were to take place in the conversation that's culturally compatible, gives us a strategic purpose, then we would entertain it. But again, I want to make sure that everyone understands that the lion's share of our focus is on organic growth.

Matthew Breese

Tony, I'd just be curious, are conversations starting to pick up a little bit? And yes, just in terms of size and geography, I'd be curious where you're interested.

Anthony Labozzetta

Yes. Matt, I would say the conversations are always happening. I don't know if there's been a pickup. I think, I would say, since the regulatory changes when you had kind of a hyper pickup, I think then it just got steady. So now it's just business as usual when it comes to M&A discussions.

Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Tony Labozzetta for closing remarks.

Anthony Labozzetta

Well, thank you, everyone. I'd like to mention again that we are very excited about Provident's future. We appreciate you joining us on the call today, and we look forward to speaking with you again after the holidays.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.