Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của Slide Insurance (SLDE): Lợi nhuận ròng tăng, nâng dự báo kinh doanh

Slide Insurance (SLDE) đã báo cáo doanh thu phí bảo hiểm và lợi nhuận tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ trong quý 3 năm 2026, nhờ hợp đồng khai thác mới tự nguyện, mở rộng địa bàn hoạt động và đòn bẩy hoạt động. Ban lãnh đạo cũng nâng dự báo cho cả năm dù đã tính đến khoản tổn thất dự kiến từ bão Isaias.

Điểm tin chính

• Tổng phí bảo hiểm gốc tăng 9,3% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 506,5 triệu USD, nhờ hợp đồng khai thác mới tự nguyện, mở rộng sang các bang mới và tỷ lệ duy trì hợp đồng.
• Lợi nhuận ròng tăng 24,5% lên 138,2 triệu USD, trong khi thu nhập trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng đạt 1,09 USD. Tỷ suất sinh lời trên vốn chủ sở hữu (ROE) hàng quý đạt khoảng 11%, tương đương khoảng 44% quy năm.
• Tỷ lệ kết hợp được báo cáo là 59,3%, bao gồm 34,2 triệu USD tổn thất do thảm họa. Tỷ lệ kết hợp theo năm phát sinh sự cố (không bao gồm thảm họa và biến động dự phòng kỳ trước) đã cải thiện từ 62,3% xuống 54,4%.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã nâng dự báo tổng phí bảo hiểm gốc năm 2026 lên khoảng 1,90 tỷ đến 1,95 tỷ USD và dự báo lợi nhuận ròng lên 500 triệu đến 520 triệu USD.
• Hội đồng quản trị đã thông qua khoản cổ tức đặc biệt bằng tiền mặt là 1,50 USD/cổ phiếu, bên cạnh khoản cổ tức hàng quý thông thường là 0,07 USD/cổ phiếu.
• California tiếp tục tăng tốc sau khi triển khai vào tháng 5, Texas bắt đầu ký kết hợp đồng bảo hiểm nhà ở, còn New York và New Jersey vẫn nằm trong kế hoạch triển khai trong quý tới.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026, Slide nắm giữ 700,6 triệu USD tiền và các khoản tương đương tiền cùng 849,8 triệu USD tổng tài sản đầu tư, chủ yếu là các chứng khoán nợ có ngày đáo hạn cố định sẵn sàng để bán.

Kết quả hoạt động kinh doanh

Mức tăng trưởng phí bảo hiểm phản ánh doanh số bán hàng tự nguyện được duy trì, tỷ lệ duy trì hợp đồng tốt và sự đóng góp bước đầu từ các thị trường mở rộng. Chương trình bảo hiểm tài sản nhà ở thuộc dòng sản phẩm dôi dư và vượt mức (excess & surplus) tại California tiếp tục mở rộng quy mô sau khi ra mắt vào tháng 5. Slide cũng bắt đầu triển khai hoạt động kinh doanh bảo hiểm nhà ở tại Texas trong quý.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết New York và New Jersey vẫn đi đúng lộ trình để triển khai trong quý tới, mặc dù thời gian phê duyệt của cơ quan quản lý có thể ảnh hưởng đến tốc độ mở rộng. Công ty kỳ vọng tăng trưởng từ các thị trường mới sẽ trở nên rõ nét hơn khi kênh phân phối và các thủ tục phê duyệt pháp lý tăng tốc.

Đòn bẩy hoạt động tiếp tục là động lực chính thúc đẩy lợi nhuận. Chi phí quản lý doanh nghiệp tăng nhẹ lên 48,8 triệu USD từ mức 45,0 triệu USD dù có các khoản đầu tư vào nhân sự và hạ tầng. Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng tỷ lệ chi phí giảm là nhờ các khoản đầu tư trước đó vào công nghệ và nhân sự để phục vụ mở rộng đa bang.

Vào tháng 10, Slide đã hoàn tất hạn mức tín dụng trị giá 1,07 tỷ USD. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hạn mức này mang lại sự linh hoạt cho các mục đích chung của công ty, mở rộng hoạt động ngoài bang Florida và thực hiện các thương vụ M&A chiến lược tiềm năng.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Slide đã nâng mức cận dưới trong triển vọng tổng phí bảo hiểm gốc cả năm 2026:

• Tổng phí bảo hiểm gốc: 1,90 tỷ đến 1,95 tỷ USD, điều chỉnh từ mức 1,85 tỷ đến 1,95 tỷ USD.
• Lợi nhuận ròng: 500 triệu đến 520 triệu USD, điều chỉnh từ mức 455 triệu đến 470 triệu USD.
• ROE cả năm: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến đạt trên 40%.
• Tỷ lệ chi phí: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết tỷ lệ duy trì phù hợp cho cả năm là khoảng 28,5%-29%.
• Thuế suất thực tế: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến đạt khoảng 21,5%-22% trên cơ sở bền vững theo chiến lược thuế hiện tại.

Triển vọng lợi nhuận ròng đã bao gồm khoản tổn thất trước thuế dự kiến lên tới 50 triệu USD từ cơn bão Isaias.

Cho năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo đưa ra kỳ vọng sơ bộ về mức tăng trưởng phí bảo hiểm đạt ít nhất 8%-9%, cùng với tiềm năng bổ sung từ các vùng lãnh thổ mới. Công ty lưu ý rằng tăng trưởng nhiều khả năng sẽ tập trung vào nửa cuối năm do thời gian đẩy mạnh thủ tục pháp lý và kế hoạch công suất tái bảo hiểm.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

Bão Isaias đã đổ bộ gần ranh giới bang Florida-Alabama với cấp độ 2. Slide có tỷ trọng tập trung hạn chế ở vùng Florida Panhandle, nhưng ban lãnh đạo vẫn ước tính thận trọng khoản tổn thất trước thuế khoảng 50 triệu USD. Công ty nhấn mạnh rằng ước tính này mới là sơ bộ và kết quả cuối cùng có thể thấp hơn.

Tổn thất thảm họa đã ảnh hưởng đến kết quả hoạt động khai thác bảo hiểm quý 3, trong đó các trận bão đối lưu ở Florida đã làm tỷ lệ tổn thất do thảm họa tăng thêm 10,3 điểm phần trăm.

Ban lãnh đạo cũng xác định thời gian phê duyệt pháp lý là một rào cản đối với tốc độ mở rộng sang các bang mới. Dự báo tăng trưởng phải được phối hợp với chương trình tái bảo hiểm thảm họa đã mua từ đầu năm, vì việc vượt quá dự báo rủi ro bảo hiểm đã trình có thể dẫn đến các chi phí điều chỉnh bổ sung đắt đỏ.

Hoạt động M&A tiềm năng vẫn phụ thuộc vào kỷ luật định giá. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ nhận thấy hoạt động giao dịch gia tăng nhưng sẽ chỉ tiến hành ở mức giá chấp nhận được.

Điểm nổi bật trong phần Q&A với chuyên viên phân tích

• Rủi ro từ bão: Ban lãnh đạo mô tả ước tính 50 triệu USD cho bão Isaias là thận trọng vì cơn bão ảnh hưởng đến khu vực có mật độ dân số tương đối thấp, nơi Slide có tỷ trọng tập trung hạn chế. Công ty không kỳ vọng sẽ phát sinh tổn thất chạm đến hạn mức tái bảo hiểm.
• Sử dụng nguồn vốn tín dụng: Hạn mức mới có thể hỗ trợ các mục đích chung của công ty, mở rộng hoạt động ngoài Florida và thực hiện các thương vụ thâu tóm chiến lược. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết một thương vụ mang tính bước ngoặt có thể xuất hiện vào năm 2027, tùy thuộc vào kỷ luật giá.
• Đòn bẩy chi phí: Slide kỳ vọng các khoản đầu tư trước đây vào công nghệ và nhân sự sẽ hỗ trợ mở rộng quy mô hơn nữa. Ban lãnh đạo coi tỷ lệ chi phí tiệm cận 28,5%-29% là mức duy trì hợp lý.
• Nhịp độ tăng trưởng năm 2027: Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng tăng trưởng phí bảo hiểm sẽ dồn vào nửa cuối năm khi các bang mới đi vào hoạt động ổn định và phân bổ tái bảo hiểm được thiết lập.
• Cạnh tranh: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết chưa nhận thấy áp lực cạnh tranh quá lớn hoặc thay đổi đáng kể nào trong 2 đến 3 quý qua và tiếp tục tích cực đối với các cơ hội ở Florida cũng như các thị trường mở rộng.
• Hoàn trả vốn cho cổ đông: Kể từ khi IPO vào tháng 6 năm 2025, Slide đã hoàn trả khoảng 423,1 triệu USD cho cổ đông, bao gồm 230,9 triệu USD mua lại cổ phiếu và khoảng 192,2 triệu USD tiền cổ tức.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Slide Insurance Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn it over to Slide.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, and good morning. With us today are your host, Bruce Lucas, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Slide; and Anastasios Omiridis, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to our earnings release, which was published yesterday after the market closed and can be found on our website at ir.slideinsurance.com. Before we begin our formal remarks, I need to remind everyone that part of our discussion today may include forward-looking statements, which are based on the expectations, estimates and projections of management regarding the company's future performance, anticipated events or trends and other matters that are not historical facts.

The forward-looking statements in our discussion are subject to various assumptions, risks, uncertainties and other factors that are difficult to predict and which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer all of you to our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could impact the future operating results and financial condition of Slide.

Our statements are as of today, October 28, 2026, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we may make, except as required by law. In addition, this call is being webcast and an archived version will be available shortly after the call ends on the Investor Relations portion of the company's website at www.slideinsurance.com.

With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to our Founder, Chairman and CEO, Bruce Lucas. Please go ahead.

Bruce Lucas

Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter 2026 earnings call. Once again, we executed at a high level this quarter, reinforcing the strength of our tech-enabled model and its ability to produce industry-leading top and bottom line results. For the quarter, we grew gross written premiums by 9.3% year-over-year to $506.6 million, driven by continued growth in voluntary sales and the early contributions from our expansion markets. In addition to our top line growth, Slide grew net income by 25% year-over-year to $138.2 million with diluted earnings per share of $1.09.

Third quarter return on equity was approximately 11%, which equates to an approximate annualized return of 44%. Our combined ratio was 59.3%, reflecting continued underwriting discipline even with catastrophe losses. On an accident year ex catastrophe basis, our combined ratio was an outstanding 54.4%. Our third quarter results provide further testament to our ability to deliver meaningful value creation to our shareholders. We continue to make meaningful progress in expanding our footprint. California continues to ramp up following our May launch of the residential property E&S program, and we expect to accelerate growth there through the remainder of the year and into 2027.

We also began writing residential business in Texas this quarter and remain on track to roll out New York and New Jersey in the coming quarter. Our expansion outside of Florida further reflects the scalability of our platform and our ability to identify and act on attractive opportunities where we believe we can produce significant growth, coupled with attractive returns. We remain confident in our ability to execute on our diversified growth strategy, creating long-term value for our shareholders. We have built our program around one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector, giving us the financial flexibility to pursue this kind of expansion.

In October, we closed a $1.07 billion credit facility, the largest facility ever issued to a coastal property insurer, which further enhances our capital flexibility to fund accretive growth opportunities. We see a shift in the market taking place and are excited about the ability to move quickly should the right opportunity arise. Turning to capital management. We continued our disciplined approach to returning capital to shareholders. In addition to our regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share, I am pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has approved a special cash dividend of $1.50 per share.

This decision reflects the consistency and durability of our earnings power, the strength of our free cash flow generation and the robust capital position we have built. The special dividend complements our share repurchase program and regular dividend, underscoring our confidence in the long-term trajectory of the business. There are several reasons why I believe a special dividend is warranted at this time. First and foremost, I have a high degree of confidence in our business model and growth initiatives. Slide's ability to generate net income and free cash flow is unmatched in the coastal specialty market, and I believe that we will continue to be the market leader for the foreseeable future.

The Board has carefully reached the decision to issue a special dividend because the company continues to outperform virtually every financial metric, generating capital in excess of what is needed to fund our growth initiatives. I am always looking for ways to enhance shareholder return. And to date, that has been in the form of share repurchases and dividends. Since our IPO in June of 2025, Slide has returned approximately $423.1 million in capital to our shareholders. Slide repurchased $230.9 million of stock at an average weighted price of $17.28 a share, which equates to an approximate return on investment of 56.8%. Slide has also paid approximately $192.2 million in dividends, which translates to a yield in excess of 5%.

We will continue to use our capital thoughtfully to enhance future shareholder returns, and I strongly believe that both of our initiatives are accretive to our forward ROE. In the fourth quarter, Hurricane Isaias made landfall near the Florida, Alabama state line as a Category 2 hurricane. Our thoughts are with all of our impacted policyholders, and we are here for them in their time of need. Slide is not heavily concentrated in the Florida Panhandle, and we do not expect the storm to generate significant retention losses. It is too early to state the exact dollar amount of the retention, but we believe the hurricane will result in approximately $50 million of pretax retention.

Despite the hurricane, we believe Slide will end the year with over $500 million of net income, which translates into an annual ROE in excess of 40% for 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of annual ROEs above 40%. Finally, our results this quarter reflect the dedicated work of our entire team. I want to thank all of our employees for their relentless effort and the important role they play in Slide's performance. I'm proud of what we're accomplishing together, and I appreciate all of you. Thank you for your continued support of Slide.

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Anastasios Omiridis to provide some color on our third quarter results.

Anastasios Omiridis

Thank you, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. For the third quarter, net income increased 24.5% to $138.2 million compared with $111 million in the prior year period, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $1.09. Our results demonstrate the continued strength of our earnings profile supported by sustained top line growth and disciplined expense management. Gross written premiums increased 9.3% to $506.5 million compared with $463.4 million in the third quarter of 2025. Growth was driven by continued momentum in voluntary new business, including expansion into new states as well as policy retention.

Total revenue increased 35.9% to $361.1 million compared with $265.7 million in the prior year period. Net premiums earned grew 37.1% to $333.3 million compared with $243.1 million, reflecting the continued earning of premiums generated by our expanding portfolio. As a reminder, the quarterly progression of net premiums earned is not necessarily linear given the timing and volume of Citizens takeouts completed in prior periods and their respective positions within the policy earning cycle. Turning to our underwriting performance. Net losses and loss adjustment expenses totaled $101.3 million during the quarter, including $34.2 million of catastrophe losses associated with convective storms in Florida.

These losses represented 10.3% catastrophe loss ratio compared with no catastrophe loss ratio in the prior year quarter. We also recognized $18 million of favorable prior period reserve development compared with $32.5 million in the prior year period. Importantly, our accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophe losses and prior period reserve development, improved to 25.5% from 27.5% in the prior year quarter. This 200 basis point improvement reflects favorable underlying loss experience and the continued effectiveness of our disciplined underwriting approach. Policy acquisition and other underwriting expenses increased to $46.2 million compared with $36.4 million in the prior year period, primarily reflecting higher acquisition costs associated with our growth.

General and administrative expenses totaled $48.8 million compared with $45 million in the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting investments in personnel and infrastructure to support our continued growth and geographic expansion. Despite these investments, we continue to realize meaningful operating leverage as our platform scales. Our expense ratio improved to 28.9% compared with 34.8% in the prior year period, representing a 590 basis point improvement. Our reported combined ratio was 59.3% compared with 48.5% in the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting higher catastrophe losses, partially offset by improved operating leverage and lower underwriting loss experience.

More importantly, our accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophe losses and prior period reserve development improved to 54.4% compared with 62.3% in the prior year period. Turning to our balance sheet and capital position. As of September 30, 2026, we held $700.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and $849.8 million in total invested assets, consisting primarily of available-for-sale fixed maturity securities. Our strong liquidity position and continued earnings generation provide substantial financial flexibility to support our strategic priorities. Turning to capital management. As Bruce mentioned, during the quarter, we successfully closed a $1.1 billion credit facility, replacing our previous credit agreement and significantly enhancing our financial flexibility.

This financing represents an important milestone in Slide's continued evolution, providing additional capacity to support strategic growth opportunities while further strengthening our capital management capabilities. Importantly, our capital management strategy remains balanced and disciplined. We are committed to delivering meaningful shareholder returns while maintaining the financial flexibility to pursue attractive organic and inorganic growth opportunities. Turning to our updated full year 2026 outlook. Given our strong year-to-date performance and continued momentum across the business, we are pleased to raise the lower end of our full year gross written premium guidance.

We now expect gross written premiums of $1.9 billion to $1.95 billion compared with our previous guidance of $1.85 billion to $1.95 billion. This upward revision reflects our confidence in the underlying trajectory of the business, with continued premium growth expected to be driven primarily by sustained organic expansion, including voluntary new business production, geographic diversification and ongoing execution of our growth strategy. We also now expect to deliver full year net income between $500 million and $520 million compared to our prior range between $455 million and $470 million, which will result in a full year return on equity above 40%. Our full year net income expectations are inclusive of up to $50 million of expected pretax losses related to Hurricane Isaias.

Thank you for your time. Operator, we now are ready to open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Alex Scott from Barclays.

Phần hỏi đáp

Unknown Analyst

This is [indiscernible] on for Alex. Maybe just first a question on the hurricane. Can you help us unpack the roughly $50 million of estimated pretax losses? What drove the magnitude of the loss? And how should we think about your underlying exposure?

Bruce Lucas

Yes, absolutely. So Isaias has set in a very low populated area of Florida. It's just east of the Alabama, Florida state line. We have a very small concentration up there. We do have some commercial residential business up there. We do have affected policyholders. It is way too early to understand the magnitude of the storm, but everything we do here is extremely conservative from a reserve philosophy. So we picked a very conservative $50 million pretax loss to just message the market. But at this time, it's impossible to tell if it's going to be $50 million or a number below that.

And then in terms of what drove the loss, I mean, it's a hurricane and houses get impacted and get damaged, and this is pretty routine in Florida. So this was a pretty minor one by all accounts. I don't think this is a real industry moving event. It was, I don't want to say a nothing burger, but it was, in terms of a hurricane, it was pretty miniscule.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Can you discuss how you're thinking about the $1 billion or over $1 billion of available credit capacity? To what extent could that be for our organic growth versus capital deployment to shareholders or...

Bruce Lucas

Well, we could use the credit facility for just general corporate purposes. So it is designed to be very flexible. We can use it in a number of ways, but one of the primary reasons for the credit facility is to pursue ex Florida growth and potentially strategic M&A.

Operator

The next question is from Thomas McJoynt-Griffith from KBW.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

The first one is sort of a modeling one, and it's around the operating leverage on the expense side and specifically looking at the G&A line on the income statement, it looks like you guys got some nice operating leverage there in the third quarter with it coming down sequentially. I was surprised to see that quarter-over-quarter step-down and frankly, it being barely up year-over-year. Was there anything unusual in the third quarter? And going forward, would you expect that to continue to increase as you expand into other states and have some build-out costs associated with that?

Bruce Lucas

Yes. I mean I'll just say that we're extremely cost conscious on all of our spend here at Slide. I don't like to waste money. And so we run a pretty tight ship. In terms of the G&A ratio and the fact that it's coming down, it really reflects the fact that we invested in prior quarters into technology, our staffing, et cetera, for this multistate expansion. So some of those expenses kind of get front-loaded. And then as you grow your top line GWP, those numbers start to come down some. So it just kind of reflects the seasonality of where we are in the business cycle. As we go forward, I would think that this is a pretty consistent number. I don't know, Andy, if you have anything.

Anastasios Omiridis

Yes, I totally agree with Bruce. I think what you're seeing is the organization scale up. And as you know, there's always expenses that are front-loaded. We assume that as we achieve scale that we should start to flatten out the expense ratio. Therefore, it will be favorable moving forward. And I think we've given guidance as far as that. We assume to be around the 29%, maybe a 28.5% for the year, but I think that's the right run rate for us.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

Okay. Got it. And then as you started thinking about the top line growth opportunity into 2027, do you have some early sort of indications or milestones that you look for in terms of the size of your growth, both in Florida and on an ex Florida basis relative to your premium dollar size this year, which looks like it's going to be about $2 billion. What would be some considered sort of a good growth year in '27 relative to the size of the book this year?

Anastasios Omiridis

So I think consistent with this year, I think right now, if we look at where we're sitting today, we're roughly around 8% or 9%. I think with the new markets, we like to be conservative because we want to make sure that we deliver what we commit to. But I think at a minimum, we should see 8% to 9% and then probably layer something in for the new territories. But again, Tommy, the only thing with the new territories is the ramp-up time, which comes from the regulatory side. So sometimes ramp-up can take a little bit longer than expected. But I would assume probably an 8% to 9% growth rate for the next year as we're trending for this year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

Jon Paul Newsome

Just a quick follow-up to that thought on growth next year. If you could maybe talk a little bit more about the time line that as we roll out these states, I would expect the 8% to 9% necessarily isn't quarter by quarter by quarter. Should we expect an acceleration of growth as we get through the year because of what's happening from a distribution perspective? And I think -- on top of that, maybe what's going on with some of those business [adaptations] too? So just obviously not quarter-by-quarter guidance, but just in general, how do you think that evolution will happen over the course of the year?

Anastasios Omiridis

So first of all, Paul, it's good to hear from you. So I would consider it to be more back-end loaded. So in other words, I think you'll see Q1 to be a fairly decent quarter. All the quarters are assumed as we're starting our planning process right now to be, and we can talk about it later after we're done our planning process. But when I look -- when we look at the 8% or 9%, it is back-end loaded next year because the quarters aren't linear. So I mean, as the states ramp up, we're waiting to hear about New York. New York will then require a bit of a ramp-up. So there's attributes that I just think it's more back-end loaded for next year.

Bruce Lucas

Yes. And you have to also remember that we're out in market buying our catastrophe reinsurance program. I mean, that actually starts for us early February. And so at that point, we have to give projections out to 9/30. And you don't want to blow through your projections. Reinsurers don't like it. It can be very expensive on a true-up. So we're going to have meaningful growth throughout the year that we're going to model into our projections. But there is a ramp-up cycle. There's a reinsurance allocation that has to be done. But I do think that if I were to say what half of the year is going to be more robust, it's probably second half.

Jon Paul Newsome

That makes sense. How sensitive are, you think, the growth expectations as well to the current market environment? Lots of conversation about competition, both in and out of Florida. And so any thoughts on what you think has happened with the competitive environment and how you're structuring your business around that?

Bruce Lucas

Sure. I mean there's competition everywhere. That just never seems to change. I've been doing this for about 15 years, I'm going to say there's always been robust competition everywhere I've launched a state. We're not seeing anything that's outsized or problematic or big headwinds. What we see is a tremendous amount of opportunity still. And as we launch new products, new states, we've done our research there, and the team has a lot of experience. We have a pretty good idea where our products are going to land and how competitive they're going to be. And we're pretty bullish on what we see. And as we expand our footprint out of Florida, we're picking up reinsurance synergies along the way that help fuel that expansion model. But right now, I'd say, we're pretty bullish. I'm not seeing anything that's really changed over the last 2, 3 quarters.

Operator

The next question is from Randy Binner from Texas Capital.

Randy Binner

Yes, the 8% to 9% seems better than expected. So glad to hear you're still competitive in the Florida market. Bruce, you said something in your comments about kind of a shift in the market and you also mentioned strategic M&A. Are those 2 things related? And can you elaborate on kind of what you're seeing with the shift in the market and obviously, a lot more flexibility with the new credit facility?

Bruce Lucas

Yes. I mean, I think the market shift that we're seeing is kind of driven by forward reinsurance price expectations. And I won't comment on what that will look like, but I don't think Isaias is going to move the needle on reinsurance pricing at all. For example, Slide will not even see a loss to our reinsurance panel. So I do think that, that is bullish for the future. It's bullish for growth. It allows us to take on more capacity on the underwriting side because our reinsurance costs aren't going to be in a place where they're volatile next year. That's one big one.

And then the other thing I'll note on the M&A and kind of part of our thinking around the credit facility is get it in place in case there's a good M&A transaction. We have seen an uptick in M&A activity. And so whether these are publicly traded, privately traded, we've seen it kind of across the board. And I do think that there is M&A activity out there that could be promising. But again, it comes down to the right price. I've done, I mean, arguably more M&A than anybody in the coastal specialty sector over my career, never done a bad deal, never lost money. So you have to be disciplined on the price side. And as long as that's there, I think that there is a good prospect for something transformative into 2027.

Randy Binner

Okay. Great. And then I just had a detailed question about the model or really your tax rate, and it was a little bit lower than we expected this quarter. I think we've been using kind of a mid-20% tax rate, 20% rather. Is that the right tax rate to use going forward? Is there going to be a true-up for this lower tax rate in the fourth quarter? Just curious how that is going to extend out more into '27?

Anastasios Omiridis

I think it's a great question, Randy. No, it is -- we have put together a tax strategy, and we do assume that our ETR was 24.5% when we started the year. It is now effectively around 21.5%. We assume that we'll stay around 21.5% to 22% with the tax strategy that we have put in place. So we consider that, and we're always going to strive to do better, but I think we can sustain the 21.5% to 22% ETR, effective tax rate moving forward.

Randy Binner

Okay. But was there a reason why it was lower in the current quarter?

Anastasios Omiridis

Well, it was the catch-up. So in other words, the 21.5% that we have right now in order to smooth out because, remember, taxes are year-to-date. It's a 14% for the quarter to true up, but 21.5% is the ETR year-to-date.

Randy Binner

Got it. Okay. Perfect.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Bruce Lucas for closing comments.

Bruce Lucas

I would like to thank everyone for joining our third quarter 2026 earnings call.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.