Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của Robert Half (RHI): Mảng Giải pháp Nhân sự tăng trưởng trở lại

Điểm tin chính

• Robert Half báo cáo doanh thu quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 1,359 tỷ USD, đi ngang so với cùng kỳ năm trước trên cơ sở đã điều chỉnh. Mảng Giải pháp Nhân sự (Talent Solutions) đã tăng trưởng trở lại sau điều chỉnh lần đầu tiên kể từ năm 2022, với mức tăng 2%.
• Lãi trên mỗi cổ phiếu (EPS) pha loãng tăng 14% từ 0,43 USD lên 0,49 USD, đánh dấu lần tăng EPS theo quý so với cùng kỳ năm trước đầu tiên kể từ năm 2022.
• Lợi nhuận hoạt động đã điều chỉnh tăng lên 73 triệu USD, tương đương 5,3% doanh thu, so với mức 61 triệu USD, tương đương 4,5%, của một năm trước đó.
• Doanh thu của Protiviti giảm 3% trên cơ sở đã điều chỉnh, nhưng biên lợi nhuận gộp đã điều chỉnh cải thiện từ 23,0% lên 24,1%. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng mảng kinh doanh này sẽ tăng trưởng doanh thu trở lại so với cùng kỳ năm trước trong quý 4.
• Dự báo quý 4 cho thấy doanh thu đạt từ 1,285 tỷ USD đến 1,385 tỷ USD và EPS đạt từ 0,36 USD đến 0,46 USD. Tại điểm trung bình của khoảng dự báo, tăng trưởng doanh thu đã điều chỉnh là 3% và tăng trưởng EPS là 30% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.
• Ban lãnh đạo dẫn trưng hoạt động tuyển dụng cải thiện, doanh thu tư vấn công nghệ đạt kỷ lục tại Protiviti và nhu cầu khắc phục tuân thủ phòng chống rửa tiền tăng mạnh hơn là những động lực hoạt động chính.

Dữ liệu tài chính trọng yếu

Robert Half đã chi trả cổ tức bằng tiền mặt hàng quý là 0,59 USD/cổ phiếu vào tháng 9, tương ứng với tổng số tiền chi ra là 59 triệu USD.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Mảng Giải pháp Nhân sự ghi nhận doanh thu tăng trưởng đã điều chỉnh lần đầu tiên kể từ năm 2022. Doanh thu dịch vụ nhân sự hợp đồng tăng 1% trong cả tháng 9 và cả quý, trong khi doanh thu dịch vụ tuyển dụng cố định tăng 6% trong quý 3 và 5% trong tháng 9.

Trong giai đoạn đầu quý 4, doanh thu mảng hợp đồng đã tăng 2% so với cùng kỳ năm trước trong hai tuần đầu tháng 10. Doanh thu dịch vụ tuyển dụng cố định tăng 5% trong ba tuần đầu. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng các khoảng thời gian này quá ngắn để xác lập một xu hướng rõ ràng.

Đơn giá dịch vụ nhân sự hợp đồng tăng 3,6% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái sau khi điều chỉnh theo chuyên môn, tiền tệ và cơ cấu quốc gia, so với mức tăng 2,3% trong quý 2. Biên lợi nhuận gộp mảng hợp đồng cải thiện từ 38,9% lên 39,3%. Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng một nửa mức tăng 40 điểm cơ bản này đến từ doanh thu chuyển đổi và một nửa đến từ chênh lệch giá mở rộng, bao gồm sự dịch chuyển sang các vị trí có kỹ năng cao hơn và việc định giá kỷ luật.

Biên lợi nhuận gộp tổng thể của mảng Giải pháp Nhân sự tăng từ 46,7% lên 47,4%. Lợi nhuận hoạt động đã điều chỉnh tăng từ 24 triệu USD (tương đương 2,8% doanh thu) lên 36 triệu USD (tương đương 4,0% doanh thu).

Công nghệ tiếp tục là mảng mạnh nhất trong dịch vụ cung cấp nhân sự hợp đồng, trong khi tài chính và kế toán đã trở lại tăng trưởng so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết nhu cầu vẫn tập trung vào các lĩnh vực ưu tiên cao bao gồm hiện đại hóa công nghệ, dữ liệu, an ninh mạng và hạ tầng CNTT. Các khách hàng doanh nghiệp lớn hồi phục nhanh hơn, trong khi các doanh nghiệp vừa và nhỏ bắt đầu tăng tốc đuổi kịp.

Protiviti đã tạo ra 483 triệu USD doanh thu, bao gồm 383 triệu USD tại Mỹ và 100 triệu USD trên thị trường quốc tế. Doanh thu đã điều chỉnh giảm 5% tại Mỹ nhưng tăng 2% bên ngoài nước Mỹ.

Lợi nhuận hoạt động đã điều chỉnh của Protiviti đạt 37 triệu USD, không đổi so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, trong khi biên lợi nhuận hoạt động đã điều chỉnh tăng từ 7,5% lên 7,7%. Tư vấn công nghệ đạt doanh thu hàng quý kỷ lục, nhờ vào các hợp đồng liên quan đến chuyển đổi nền tảng, an ninh mạng, dữ liệu và AI.

Nhu cầu về quản trị rủi ro và tuân thủ đã cải thiện đáng kể. Ban lãnh đạo gắn sự gia tăng này với các hành động thực thi pháp lý yêu cầu các tổ chức tài chính phải tăng cường chương trình phòng chống rửa tiền. Các dự án này đòi hỏi lượng lớn nhân sự hợp đồng, cho phép Protiviti huy động các chuyên gia từ mảng Giải pháp Nhân sự và mở rộng quy mô cung cấp dịch vụ trong toàn doanh nghiệp.

Dự báo từ ban lãnh đạo

Robert Half đưa ra dự báo cho quý 4 năm 2026 như sau:

Mức trung bình doanh thu 1,335 tỷ USD hàm ý mức tăng trưởng đã điều chỉnh 3% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Mức EPS trung bình 0,41 USD của ban lãnh đạo tương ứng với mức tăng trưởng 30%. Mức trung bình này giả định tăng trưởng doanh thu Giải pháp Nhân sự đạt 3% và Protiviti đạt 2%.

Dự báo biên lợi nhuận hoạt động đã điều chỉnh trong quý 4 là 2%-4% cho Giải pháp Nhân sự và 6%-8% cho Protiviti. Chi phí bán hàng, quản lý và hành chính (SG&A) đã điều chỉnh dự kiến chiếm 33%-35% doanh thu hợp nhất.

Công ty dự kiến chi phí vốn đầu tư và chi phí điện toán đám mây được vốn hóa cho năm 2026 là 60 triệu USD đến 70 triệu USD, bao gồm 15 triệu USD đến 20 triệu USD trong quý 4.

Đối với quý 1 năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến biên lợi nhuận bộ phận của Protiviti sẽ giảm khoảng vài điểm phần trăm (vùng giữa 1 chữ số) so với quý trước do tính mùa vụ của kiểm toán nội bộ và các điều chỉnh lương thưởng hàng năm. Theo lịch sử, biên lợi nhuận hoạt động hợp nhất trong quý 1 thường thấp hơn từ 1 đến 2 điểm phần trăm so với quý 4. Công ty hiện dự kiến thuế suất quý 1 là 36%-40%, trong đó chi phí thù lao bằng cổ phiếu sẽ tạo thêm sự biến động.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sự bất ổn kinh tế vĩ mô và địa chính trị tiếp tục ảnh hưởng đến lạm phát, lãi suất và quá trình ra quyết định của khách hàng.
• Nhu cầu vẫn mang tính chọn lọc và tập trung chủ yếu vào các sáng kiến mà khách hàng không thể trì hoãn. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sự kiện "bùng nổ giải phóng nhu cầu" diện rộng thường thấy trong các đợt phục hồi trước đây vẫn chưa xuất hiện.
• Sản lượng hợp đồng vẫn giảm so với cùng kỳ năm trước, mặc dù tốc độ giảm đang chậm lại.
• Các kỳ nghỉ lễ trong quý 4 có thể tạo ra sự biến động, đặc biệt là ở mảng tuyển dụng cố định và Protiviti, do một số khách hàng giảm bớt hoạt động trong khoảng thời gian giữa Giáng sinh và Năm mới.
• Protiviti phải đối mặt với áp lực thông thường trong quý 1 từ tính mùa vụ của kiểm toán nội bộ và việc tăng lương thưởng trước khi các điều chỉnh giá bán được phản ánh đầy đủ.
• Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng việc tăng năng suất cá nhân từ các công cụ AI nội bộ không tự động chuyển hóa thành mức tiết kiệm chi phí tương đương trên toàn tổ chức.

Điểm nhấn phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên viên phân tích

Nhu cầu chống rửa tiền: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các hành động quản lý gần đây đã tạo ra sự gia tăng đáng kể trong công việc khắc phục và tuân thủ phòng chống rửa tiền (AML). Các dự án dự kiến kéo dài nhiều quý và đôi khi có thể kéo dài nhiều năm, mặc dù thời gian phụ thuộc vào nguồn lực của khách hàng và việc sử dụng tư vấn bên ngoài.

Tiềm năng biên lợi nhuận: Ban lãnh đạo tiếp tục tập trung vào mục tiêu đạt biên lợi nhuận hoạt động ở mức hai chữ số tại Protiviti theo thời gian. Các biện pháp chi phí gần đây, hiệu suất sử dụng nhân viên cao hơn và các dự án AML tập trung nhiều nhân sự hợp đồng đang hỗ trợ cải thiện biên lợi nhuận. Đợt tái cấu trúc trước đó dự kiến sẽ giúp tiết kiệm khoảng 11 triệu USD chi phí tiền lương hàng quý, bao gồm cả trong quý 4.

Sự phục hồi tuyển dụng: Ban lãnh đạo mô tả sự phục hồi của mảng Giải pháp Nhân sự là ổn định thay vì đột ngột. Xu hướng tuyển dụng cố định và nhân sự hợp đồng được xem là diễn ra đồng thời, trong đó tuyển dụng cố định thường giảm mạnh hơn trong đợt suy thoái và phục hồi nhanh hơn từ mức nền thấp hơn.

Khung tăng trưởng dài hạn: Ban lãnh đạo định hình mức tăng trưởng ở khoảng giữa một chữ số là kỳ vọng dài hạn cho mảng Giải pháp Nhân sự. Đối với Protiviti, công ty đưa ra khoảng tiềm năng từ mức giữa một chữ số đến mức thấp của hai chữ số, đồng thời nhấn mạnh rằng đây là các ước tính dài hạn chứ không phải dự báo ngắn hạn.

Chiến lược AI: Các khoản đầu tư vào AI của Robert Half hiện tập trung chủ yếu vào việc cải thiện trải nghiệm của khách hàng và ứng viên, các thuật toán ghép nối và ưu tiên xử lý cơ hội kinh doanh. Ban lãnh đạo cũng nhận thấy nhu cầu gia tăng đối với các chuyên gia kết hợp được chuyên môn nghiệp vụ với sự thành thạo AI, tư duy phản biện và khả năng kiểm chứng công việc do AI tạo ra.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Please stand by. Hello, and welcome to the Robert Half Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. Today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

Our host for today's call are Mr. Keith Waddell, President and Chief Executive Officer of Robert Half; and Mr. Michael Buckley, Chief Financial Officer.

Mr. Waddell, you may begin.

M. Waddell

Hello, everyone. We appreciate your time today. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that the comments made on today's call contain forward-looking statements, including predictions and estimates about our future performance. These statements represent our current judgment of what the future holds. However, are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. ..

These risks and uncertainties are described in today's press release and our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update the statements made on today's call. During this presentation, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures as adjusted. Adjusted revenue growth excludes the impact of billing day variations and foreign currency exchange rates. Adjusted gross margin, SG&A and operating income reflect the combining of investment gains and losses related to employee deferred compensation plans with corresponding changes in those obligations. These items have no impact on reported net income.

Reconciliations and additional information are included in the supplemental schedules to our earnings release. For your convenience, our prepared remarks for today's call are available in the Investor Center of our website, roberthalf.com. For the third quarter of 2026, Global Enterprise revenues were $1.359 billion, roughly flat with last year on an adjusted basis. Talent Solutions returned to adjusted year-over-year revenue growth for the first time since 2022, with revenues increasing 2%. Global Enterprise earnings exceeded the midpoint of our third quarter guidance.

Hiring activity continues to improve, supported by gradually improving market conditions. Demand for risk and compliance consulting services also showed encouraging signs of improvement during the quarter. Our combination of innovative technology, specialized expertise and high-touch client service positions us well to deliver the talent and consulting solutions clients need to advance their business priorities. Net income per share in the third quarter was $0.49, up 14% from $0.43 a year ago. This marked the first year-over-year increase in quarterly earnings per share since 2022.

Cash flow provided by operations during the quarter was $66 million. In September, we distributed a $0.59 per share cash dividend to our shareholders of record for a total cash outlay of $59 million. Return on invested capital for the company was 17% in the third quarter.

Now I'll turn the call over to our CFO, Mike Buckley.

Michael Buckley

Thank you, Keith. Hello, everyone. As Keith noted, global revenues were $1.359 billion in the third quarter. On an adjusted basis, third quarter talent solutions revenues were up 2% year-over-year. U.S. talent solutions revenues were $670 million, up 3% from the prior year's third quarter. Non-U.S. talent solutions revenues were $206 million, 1% down. Delivered 6% growth. We conduct talent solutions operations through offices in the United States in 18 other countries.

In the third quarter of 2026, there were 64.6 billing days compared to 64.2 billing days in the third quarter 1 year ago. The fourth quarter of 2026 has 61.1 billing days compared to 61.4 billing days in the fourth quarter of 2025. Billing days for the 4 quarters of 2027 will be 61.5, 63.7, 64.5 and 61.5% for a total of 251.2 billing days in the year. Currency exchange rate fluctuations during the third quarter had a de minimis impact to reported revenues. Contract talent solutions bill rates for the third quarter increased 3.6% and compared to 1 year ago, adjusted for changes in the mix of revenues by functional specialization, currency and country.

This rate for the second quarter was 2.3%. Now let's take a closer look at results for Protiviti. Global revenues in the third quarter were $483 million, $383 million of that is from the United States, and $100 million is from outside of the United States. On an tasted basis, global third quarter productivity revenues were down 3% versus the year ago period. U.S. Productivity revenues were down 5%, while non-U.S. Protiviti revenues were up 2% compared to 1 year ago. Protiviti and its independently owned member firms serve clients through locations in the United States and 27 other countries.

Turning now to gross margin. In contract talent solutions, Third quarter gross margin was 39.3% of applicable revenues versus 38.9% in the third quarter 1 year ago. Conversion or contract to hire, revenues were 3.4% of contract revenues in the current quarter compared to 3.2% in the third quarter of 2025. Our permanent placement revenues were 13.4% of consolidated talent solutions revenues in the current quarter compared to 12.9% in the third quarter of 2025. When combined with contract talent solutions gross margin, overall gross margin for talent solutions was 47.4% of applicable revenues in the current quarter compared to 46.7% and in the third quarter of 2025.

For Protiviti, gross margin was 24.2% of Protiviti revenues in the third quarter and 20.9% in the third quarter 1 year ago. Adjusted gross margin for Protiviti was 24.1% for the quarter just ended compared to 23% last year. Enterprise SG&A costs were 33.6% of global revenues in the third quarter compared to 36.2% in the same quarter 1 year ago. Adjusted enterprise SG&A costs were 33.8% for the quarter just ended compared to 33.5% 1 year ago. Talent solutions SG&A costs were 43.2% of Talent Solutions revenues in the third quarter versus 48.2% in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted talent solutions SG&A costs were 43.4% compared to 43.9% for the third quarter 1 year ago. Third quarter SG&A costs for Protiviti or 16.4% of Protiviti revenues compared to 15.5% for the same quarter 1 year ago. Reported operating income for the third quarter was $75 million, adjusted operating income was $73 million in the quarter or 5.3% of revenues. This compares to $61 million or 4.5% of revenues 1 year ago. Third quarter adjusted operating income for Talent Solutions was $36 million or 4% of revenues. This compares to $24 million or 2.8% of revenues last year.

Adjusted operating income for Protiviti in the third quarter was $37 million or 7.7% of revenues, adjusted operating income for Protiviti in the third quarter 1 year ago was $37 million or 7.5% of revenues. Our third quarter 2026 income statement includes a $2 million loss from investments held in employee deferred compensation trusts. This is completely offset by an equal amount of lower employee deferred compensation costs, which are reflected in SG&A expense and direct costs. As such, it has no effect on our reported net income.

Our third quarter tax rate was 33% in both the current quarter and the third quarter 1 year ago. At the end of the third quarter, accounts receivable were $826 million and implied days sales outstanding, or DSO, was 54.8 days. Before we move to fourth quarter guidance, let's review some of the monthly revenue trends we saw in the third quarter and so far in October, all adjusted for currency and billing days. Contract talent solutions exited the third quarter with September revenues up 1% versus the prior year, the same as the 1% increase for the full quarter. Revenues for the first 2 weeks of October are up 2% compared to the same period last year.

Permanent placement revenues in September were up 5% versus September 2025. This compares to a 6% increase for the full quarter. For the first 3 weeks in October, permanent placement revenues were up 5% compared to the same period in 2025. We provide this information so that you have insight into some of the trends we saw during the third quarter and into October. But as you know, these are very brief time periods. We caution against reading too much into them.

With that in mind, we offer the following fourth quarter guidance: revenue, $1.285 billion to $1.385 billion, income per share $0.36 to $0.46. Midpoint revenue of $1.335 billion are 3% higher than the same period in 2025 on an adjusted basis. midpoint earnings per share of $0.41 and are 30% higher than last year. Our midpoint revenue guidance for the fourth quarter reflects year-over-year revenue growth of 3% for talent solutions and 2% for Protiviti. The major financial assumptions underlying the midpoint of these estimates are as follows: adjusted revenue growth year-over-year for talent solutions, up 1% to 5%.

For Protiviti, flat to up 4% overall up 1% to 5%. Adjusted gross margin percentages, contract talent, 38% to 40%; Protiviti, 22% to 25% overall, 37% to 40%. Adjusted SG&A as a percentage of revenue for talent solutions, 43% to 45% for Protiviti 16% to 18% and overall 33% to 35%. Adjusted operating income as a percentage of revenues for talent solutions, 2% to 4% for Protiviti 6% to 8%. And overall, 3% to 5%. The assumed tax rate, 31% to 33% and shares outstanding 100.5 million to 101.5 million shares.

2026 capital expenditures and capital cloud computing costs, $60 million to $70 million with $15 million to $20 million in the fourth quarter. For the first quarter of 2027, we offer the following directional observations. Number one, historically, Protiviti Q1 segment margins seasonally decline by mid-single-digit percentage points on a sequential basis. There are 2 primary drivers. Internal audit revenues are negatively impacted as clients focus instead on annual financial statements and related external audits.

In addition, Protiviti employees receive annual compensation adjustments effective January 1, which are recovered through pricing adjustments realized as client contracts are negotiated. Segment margins then improved accordingly. Based on this, first quarter consolidated operating margins have historically been 1 to 2 percentage points lower sequentially than the fourth quarter. Number two, there is typically more variability in the Q1 tax rate compared to other quarters related to the vesting of our employee stock compensation awards. We currently expect the Q1 tax rate to be between 36% and 40%. All estimates we provide on this call are subject to the risks mentioned in today's press release and in our SEC filings.

Now I'll turn the call back over to Keith.

M. Waddell

Thank you, Mike. Our third quarter results reflect continued improvement in our talent solutions operations and Protiviti, both contract talent solutions and permanent placement achieved year-over-year revenue growth. Technology remains the strongest performing practice group within contract talent solutions while finance and accounting also returned to year-over-year revenue growth.

Across markets, clients remain focused on securing specialized expertise for high priority initiatives particularly in the areas such as technology modernization, data, cybersecurity and IT infrastructure. Small and midsized businesses continue to face significant challenges finding the skilled talent they need. According to latest NFIB data, labor quality and availability is a top business problem, reflecting a persistent skills gap that highlights the value of Robert Half's ability to connect clients with highly experienced professionals who can make an immediate impact.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty continues, including impacts to inflation and interest rates. Against this backdrop, organizations large and small, remain resilient and are steadily increasing their investment and opportunities to modernize operations and strengthen their competitive position. Whether implementing new technologies, improving productivity or advancing strategic initiatives, organizations that need specialized talent and expertise to execute effectively. These investments create opportunities for our talent solutions and consulting services.

Highly skilled professionals remain difficult to find, particularly in specialized disciplines, and demand candidates have choices and remain focused on flexibility, career development and competitive compensation. These conditions play to Robert Half's strengths, including our ability to quickly connect employers with specialized talent, possessing the skills and experience organizations need.

AI has increasingly becoming part of how it gets done across the professions we serve. Rather than broadly displacing specialized roles. These technologies are instead adding to the skills employers value and increasing the importance of professionals who compare strong functional expertise with AI fluency, critical thinking and sound judgment. The ability to assess and validate AI-generated outcomes is becoming an increasingly important part of that skill set.

At the same time, the growing use of generative AI by job seekers is making it more challenging for employers to distinguish between candidates stated qualifications and demonstrated capabilities. This underscores the value of our candidate evaluation and vetting processes, combining proprietary performance insights, rigorous skills assessment and the judgment of our recruiters to help clients hire with greater confidence. As these challenges become more widespread, our ability to identify and validate highly capable talent represents an increasingly important competitive advantage.

Beyond its impact on the hiring process, AI adoption is also creating new opportunities for specialized talent, weather related to AI exploration or for implementation across their operations, we are seeing growing demand for highly qualified talent to support this transition. This includes professionals with expertise in technology, data, finance and business transformation as well as those who can apply emerging technologies with their respective disciplines. These evolving requirements reinforce the value of our specialized recruiting expertise and deep understanding of the skills employers need.

Protiviti's results exceeded our expectations for the quarter with every major solution or capability area above forecast. Technology consulting again posted all-time high quarterly revenues with high demand for platform transformation, cybersecurity and data-related and AI engagements. The risk and compliance practice made significant progress during the quarter, which is expected to continue. Leading the way were engaged to help clients address existing enforcement actions where regulators required further improvements to the quality and effectiveness of their anti-money laundering programs.

Demand across Protiviti's broader solution offerings remain solid with a growing and diversified pipeline of opportunities. We expect Protiviti to return to year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter. Our ability to strategically leverage contract professionals through our talent solutions business remains a distinct competitive advantage, enabling us to deliver flexible solutions for clients while strengthening collaboration across the enterprise.

We're encouraged by the progress in our business and remain confident in the opportunities ahead as businesses navigate changing technology workforce and operational requirements, we see continued opportunities to help clients access the expertise they need to adapt, execute and grow.

Our purpose has never been more relevant: helping companies succeed through specialized talent and consulting expertise while helping people build meaningful careers backed by our trusted brand, exceptional people innovative capabilities and diversified business model, we remain confident in our ability to create long-term value for our clients, our employees and our shareholders.

Finally, we want to recognize and thank our employees around the world for their continued dedication to our clients. Their commitment is reflected in Robert Half's recent accolades, including being named among Fortune's Best Workplaces in Consulting & Professional Services, Forbes' World's Best Employers and Forbes world's Top Companies for Women.

Now Mike and I'd be happy to answer your questions. Please ask you just 1 question and a single follow-up as needed. If there's time, we'll come back for additional questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

Phần hỏi đáp

Andrew Steinerman

Keith, could you just help us dissect the pickup within Protiviti, particularly, I'm curious about the demand for AML compliance services. Earlier in the year, we said that sort of like the regulatory backdrop. Was it as fierce for AML compliance.

Has something changed obviously, you're saying the demand for the risk and compliance is one of the drivers to bring productivity back to growth in the fourth quarter. Is it the biggest driver that's changed kind of third into the fourth quarter for Protiviti?

M. Waddell

The answer is yes. So during the last 90 days, treasury department regulators imposed significant fines and major enforcement actions against multiple large financial institutions, they -- most of them were in the news, and they related primarily to prior consent orders where the remediation efforts were found to be deficient. And this put banks generally all notice that AML compliance was still a top priority in part because it has direct links to national security.

And so these actions require many activities, including historical lookbacks, significant increases in transactions and file review volumes. Often, these involve third-party consultant to clear. Protiviti is fortunate to have a very strong presence in AML, have broad relationships across financial institutions. It does business with over 80% and of the largest financial institutions globally. We're seeing a meaningful increase in demand for AML remediation and compliance. And the really good news is it benefits the entire organization because a significant amount of the work comes from contractors sourced through talent solutions. So it's a win for everybody.

Operator

And your next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

John Ronan Kennedy

Going from how difficult it is to find verified talented individuals and your ability to do that as well as a whole slew of new skills that are coming to the fore. And so the question is, to what extent do you think that those trends make you a little bit more resistant to any sort of macro downturn that we could potentially have given where fuel prices are, where interest rates are, just kind of the geopolitical environment.

And then as a follow-up to that, if we can keep going, what does that say with regards to the margin profile for next year because the incremental margins look like they're pretty good. And it seems like you have a lot of excess capacity. I know it's a long question, but I just wanted to drill down on those new elements.

M. Waddell

Well, and I think the first 1 was related to resilience if the macro weakens, and I would say, in addition to it's difficult for clients to find talent, particularly verified talent for the reasons we've talked about. Unemployment is low, generally speaking, which also makes it harder for our clients. The new skills are more difficult for our clients to source on their own. And we can also correlate existing skills to needed new skills in a way that is hard for our clients to do on their own.

And so I clearly think we're positioned well relative to prior cycles because of the lower unemployment, still at 4.2% in the U.S., in part because of the newer requirements, in part because verification of skills is more important than ever with AI. And so we feel relatively good about resiliency and as to margin profile, as you're already seeing, even with low single-digit growth that we've seen this past quarter that we're projecting for the coming quarter.

The combination of a little higher gross margin, a little leverage, we've got nice double-digit increases in operating income at midpoint for Q4, that's up 30%. With some luck, that will be even more as we move forward. And so coupled with Protiviti strength, particularly in regulatory compliance, we're pretty bullish about margin possibilities.

Mark Marcon

That's great. And can you just -- you've had really nice improvements in terms of Protiviti margins. Do you think that, that can also continue. I know the leverage that you've got on the on the talent solutions side. But I don't know if you have that same excess capacity with regards to AML?

M. Waddell

Well, I would say remember the cost actions that they took just last quarter, and so those cost actions are a big contributor to the better margins because the remaining people are higher chargeable or more utilized, if you will, use of contractors by Protiviti is margin accretive, and these AML projects are very contractor heavy. So that's a good thing for Protiviti's margins.

But as we've said many, many times for many, many quarters, the plan for Protiviti is to have double-digit operating margins, and that continues to be the plan. And so I think they made tremendous progress in a very short period of time with their margins. And this new demand and additional revenue that comes from more AML is even better news. And let's not forget that technology consulting is still Protiviti's largest practice group. And it just again the all-time high quarterly revenues.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Trevor Romeo with William Blair.

Unknown Analyst

Mike. I wanted to actually continue kind of on the margin theme, but shift to gross margins for the contract count solutions business. Because I think the bill rates accelerated nicely, I think, over a percentage point and your gross margins expanded even adjusted for the conversion.

So maybe you could just talk about that a little bit more, I guess, in terms of mix? Like are you starting to see more movement in terms of highly skilled talent or FTEP placements accelerating? Or just any other factors that might be helping the bill rates and the gross margins for the contract business right now?

Michael Buckley

So year-on-year, we're up 40 basis points in contract gross margin. Half of that's conversions, which is a derivative of the strength in perm placement. The other half is pure spreads, and we have increased our spreads over the last year. Part of that's mix. As we've said, we've moved to higher skill Part of that is mix as to FTEP, which is recovering because it was impacted the most on the downside the last few years. And part of it is just kind of disciplined execution because gross margin maintenance and defending those have always been a priority at Robert Half and will continue to be.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. That's great. And then I guess on the first quarter directional observations that you gave, of course, appreciate the comments on margins and the tax rate. I guess as you stand today with your current visibility, is there anything in terms of the top line that would tell you kind of differently than normal seasonality for revenue at this point? Or just how would you kind of I don't know, message the trends that you might see there?

Michael Buckley

I think the seasonal trend is a seasonal trend that will be around for a long, long time. And so because of the internal audit crowd out as clients focus on external audit. And because of all the compensation adjustments that all fall on the same first day of the year, you're going to have those impacts. But you recover from them the rest of the year, clearly, this improvement in regulatory risk and compliance will help the revenue side, but that doesn't directly impact internal audit, and internal audit is the 1 where they have the crowd out phenomenon, as I just spoke to.

Unknown Analyst

And I guess in terms of the talent solutions business, is there anything maybe different than you'd normally expect?

Michael Buckley

Not really. It's always a little quirky about what day of the week or months that the holidays fall, but that's just business as usual. But other than that, in talent solutions, we've seen steady, consistent sequential improvement day by day, week by week. It's not a hockey stick. But it's a steady rise that we've seen for a few quarters now that we see no reason wouldn't continue.

Operator

And the next question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta

Just to maybe drill down a little bit on Protiviti. Obviously, in the first quarter, you talked about some seasonality. As you look at the fourth quarter, is there any seasonality or lumpiness? I know the holidays probably have an impact. But I'm curious, based on the growth guidance you gave, if there would be any onetime issues? Or this is just a consistent improvement in the business?

M. Waddell

Well, I would say the holiday impacts Protiviti more so than talent solutions because many of their clients do a soft close between Christmas and New Year's. And so there's that impact, which remains, but we have dialed in the benefit of the additional anti-money laundering demand in this fourth quarter, but it's not a one-off.

Kartik Mehta

And then just on the talent solutions. When you look at SMB customers and enterprise customers, any difference or is the recovery but pretty broad-based were both those participating?

M. Waddell

I would say that enterprise traditionally recovers sooner and more quickly. That's been the case this time around. SMB is starting to catch up a bit. And so that's good news. But enterprise always gets a head start.

Operator

And your next question will come from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

Keen Fai Tong

Prime placement revenue grew 6% in the quarter, and that was well ahead of contract talent growth to -- what extent would you say the strength in prime placement serves as a leading indicator of a broader hiring recovery? And historically, what lag have you seen between firm placement and contract staffing?

M. Waddell

And so George, I would say they're coincident. And in fact, if you go to our website, we've got a slide that shows probably for 20 years, we superimpose growth -- year-over-year growth rates for perm over year-over-year growth rates for contract. And my conclusion, look at those graphs is that they're coincident because perm placement always get hit harder on the downside, it's starting at a lower point at a lower base and comes out stronger on the upside.

And I think that's exacerbated by low unemployment that we're currently in, added to by this need for validation because of AI, I think, makes perm relatively speaking, even more positive. And so effectively, easier comps because it gets -- takes a bigger hit on the downside. And because of low unemployment, more demand. because it's harder for clients to hire themselves.

Keen Fai Tong

Got it. That's helpful. And then talent solutions has seen sequential improvement now for a couple of quarters. With contract revenue up 1% and then bill rates up about 3.5%, would you say hours worked or active contract placements have begun to grow year-over-year at this point? And what would you expect to see volumes to become a positive contributor to revenue growth?

M. Waddell

Well, I think for the math to work, the volumes are still somewhat down, but they're increasingly less down and the trend is good for the reasons we've talked about.

Operator

And the next question is from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

Unknown Analyst

This is Roman Kennedy on for Manav. Question on technology has led the recovery in finance and accounting has returned to growth. Are you beginning to see demand broad beyond mission-critical initiatives in some more discretionary hire projects. And -- or is the recovery still concentrated in areas clients simply can't defer?

M. Waddell

Well, it's primarily areas they can't defer. But to the extent they think or decide that there are projects that are critical to their competitiveness. They decide they need to modernize, to get ready for AI, whatever that's going to mean they're willing to spend selectively. But kind of contrasted to prior cycles that corresponded to overall recessions typically ending of an overall recession is a clearing event. There's an all clear bell, everybody, including our SMB clients feel more positive and demand overall increases.

I'd say, so far, it's still more selective. And the inflation concerns, the geopolitical concerns, all add to that. Our clients are grinding their way through those uncertainties but we haven't yet had the clearing event you've had traditionally at the beginning of up cycles.

John Ronan Kennedy

Got it. And then a question for my second, please, on talent solutions operating margin range. I think you've guided to 2% to 4% in 4Q? Can you help us think about what separates the low end from the high end, whether it's the revenue volume and SG&A leverage? Or does GM gross margin mix remain an equally important swing factor?

M. Waddell

Well, we always give a range, right? We focus heavily on the midpoint of that range, but there's no magic. I mean, how impactful will the holidays be that's particularly variable as it relates to perm placement. If you look back over time, the variability in perm placement Q4 because of the holidays is more than the variability in contract because of the holidays. But I wouldn't point to anything specific as to what's going to drive whether it's the midpoint low or high other than this client demand.

Operator

And the next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

Jeffrey Silber

Now that you returned to growth for year-over-year growth for talent solutions and you're guiding for that to happen in Protiviti in the current quarter. Can you remind us what you think the long-term growth rates are for those businesses? I know they're cyclical, but maybe if we're looking peak to peak, any color would be great.

M. Waddell

Well, again, it's a long-term question. We typically think mid-single digits for talent solutions. And for Protiviti, because it has such a small market share relative to the big 4 and there's so much opportunity there, we would we would expect even higher kind of maybe from mid-single to low doubles. But again, those are long-term educated guesses would maybe a way to call it.

Jeffrey Silber

That's what I asked for. So that's great. That's really helpful. And then as a follow-up, you had mentioned in your remarks, you talked about some of these big remediation projects. Can you tell us roughly how long those last? Is that something that might be rolling off in the first quarter?

M. Waddell

Well, the expectation is they last a lot longer than 1 quarter. I think if you look back, Protiviti has had some of those that have lasted years. Now remember, these aren't brand-new consent orders or enforcement actions. These are -- the regulators come in seeing what's been done so far and says, that's not enough. And so it's not a brand-new start, but the point is these clearly have legs, and they're expected to at a minimum to have multiple quarter legs.

But it depends on the client, it depends on how aggressive they are. It depends on their internal resources, their willingness to use external resources. There are a lot of variables, but it's not a quick in and out process to say the least.

Operator

And the next question will come from Tobey Sommer with Truist.

Tobey Sommer

I wanted to ask a question about your thoughts about the seasonality of profit impacts with tax and operating income, et cetera, margin in 1Q. What's the implied EPS impact at the bottom line from those factors?

M. Waddell

I'm not sure for this purpose, we've separated them and converted on to EPS. We basically said collectively at the pretax operating margin line, they typically cause a 1% to 2% pretax operating income impact. I guess, we could do the math and convert that to EPS. But again, it's orders of magnitude, that's what we're talking. The tax rate in the first quarter is all over the place because of stock compensation.

And the issue is typically at what price we're compensation grants made to employees versus when they vest, what tax deduction do you get for those and the differential positive or negative impacts your tax rate? And so that's why that tax rate in the first quarter is particularly volatile. I think last year, it was over 50%. The year before that, it was 20% and that's heavily impacted by stock prices.

Tobey Sommer

Makes sense. I wanted to ask about the opportunity for you to leverage talent solutions with the areas that are growing in Protiviti? Is the current mix of demand sufficient, so that your -- you do have opportunities for the 2 businesses to work together and sort of maximize your revenue and profit from those in -- and maybe could you refresh us on what areas of Protiviti should there be an increase in demand would be the sort of optimal ones

[Audio Gap]

M. Waddell

Are the risk and regulatory, in this case, anti-money-laundering projects that are very large and they're very contract. And having access to those contractors and to be able to scale as quickly as we can scale for our clients is unquestionably a competitive advantage. And so risk and compliance, that practice has always been very contractor-friendly. And it's loved by the enterprise as a whole, as I said earlier, because of the involvement of contractors.

Technology consulting which is taking advantage of the modernization, AI adjacent AI getting ready. That's also an area for contractors and even internal audit. Internal audit is an opportunity where Protiviti uses contractors as well. And so while it took us a while to get the collaboration we now have with the success we've enjoyed with contractor uses, it's unquestionably now at a competitive advantage. And these newer projects that we talk about today we're scaling significantly and quickly in a way it's hard for competitors to do. And that. wonderful thing.

Operator

And our next question comes from Bruna Warnick with UBS.

Unknown Analyst

This is Bruno for Kevin Mackay. Congrats on the results. Can you please confirm whether there was any benefit on the Q4 PA guide from the last quarter restructuring?

M. Waddell

Well, to the extent we took cost out of the business, those certainly accrue to the fourth quarter as well. And my recollection is, and correct me in the room, if I remember wrong, it was about $11 million a quarter in benefit from payroll savings alone, which clearly benefits the fourth quarter.

Operator

And the next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

Stephanie Benjamin Moore

I wanted to touch on your AI investments. I know that you implemented a lot of investments over the last 12 months or so. Could you talk a bit about what you have seen thus far in terms of fill rate, increased productivity at the individual level. And as we think about an up cycle, what does this mean in terms of your own head count with some of these tools?

M. Waddell

I'd say that initially, our tools are more focused on client and candidate experience than they are internal recruiter productivity and not that we're not getting any, but we're focused on improving matching and we've spent a lot of money improving our matching algorithms, including upgrading them to the larger to the latest large language models. On the client side, we've spent a lot of money in AI, trying to have more of an intelligent pipeline approach to which clients we reach out to and why.

And it's kind of like the Amazon, if you like this, then you'll like that. And so for our people, if we're doing with business with this client, this client has this kind of profile. Here are other companies with a similar profile. Here's new stories and other information that we have access to about those companies. And further, do we have any activity whatsoever across our organization, all of which give us a reason to call and have something to talk about.

And so again, I would say, rather than focus first on cost savings and productivity, it's more around expanding market, expanding access to clients' access to candidates. Now having said that, particularly in the case of prioritizing leads, that definitely has had a productivity improving quality for our people. But as quickly as I say that, I think many have learned and we would concur that translating individual productivity to organizational productivity.

There's a lot of slip between cup and lip when you're trying to look at your organizational savings versus taking individual savings you might get in a given location and extrapolate that to everybody that works for you. And so we feel good about our investments we're focused on client and Canada experience first. We're not ignoring that their productivity gains for our people, and we're getting some, but we're more focused on client and Canada experience.

Stephanie Benjamin Moore

Understood. And then maybe just for a follow-up, and maybe I just may be misunderstood what your comment. But -- maybe just talk a little bit about, as you think about focusing on roles in different end markets or different segments? And maybe talk about how that has changed as we think about this cycle versus prior cycles. And if there are some targeted verticals that you're now focused on versus historically?

M. Waddell

I would say from a vertical point of view, probably the biggest change is in technology. And historically, our SMB clients, the demand was for help desk PC technicians very operational-driven roles. And as technologies migrated over the years such that even smaller businesses have tech development requirements that historically they didn't have. Plus, as we focused more and more on midsize, mid-cap companies as it relates to technology, our mix of technology to the total, and I haven't looked at it in a while, but if you take a 10-year view, my guess is you would see technology is a much larger portion of the total today than it was 10 years ago. But that's in part because of the demand for our core SMB base has gravitated toward tech development because of how technology has changed.

That was our last question. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. If you missed any part of the call, it will be archived in audio format in the Investor Center of Robert Half's website at roberthalf.com. You can also walk into the conference call replay. Details are contained in the company's press release issued earlier today.