Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh Q2 2026 của AIRO: Doanh thu tăng vọt 76%, giá trị đơn hàng drone tồn đọng đạt 163 triệu USD
AIRO công bố doanh thu quý 2/2026 đạt 43,2 triệu USD, tăng gần 76% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Biên lợi nhuận gộp cải thiện lên 64%. Lợi nhuận từ hoạt động kinh doanh đạt 1,7 triệu USD, trong khi lỗ ròng ghi nhận ở mức 2 triệu USD. EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 6,8 triệu USD.
Giá trị đơn hàng tồn đọng mảng máy bay không người lái đạt khoảng 163 triệu USD, tăng khoảng 9% so với quý trước. Ban lãnh đạo tái khẳng định dự báo tăng trưởng doanh thu cả năm 2026 từ 15% đến 25%, đồng thời dự kiến EBITDA điều chỉnh cả năm âm từ 15 đến 19 triệu USD.
AIRO báo cáo doanh thu và biên lợi nhuận quý 2/2026 tăng trưởng tích cực hơn nhờ số lượng giao hàng máy bay không người lái (drone) gia tăng. Ban lãnh đạo tái khẳng định triển vọng tăng trưởng cả năm, đồng thời cảnh báo rằng thời điểm giao hàng và tỷ giá hối đoái sẽ ảnh hưởng đến kết quả kinh doanh nửa cuối năm.
Điểm tin chính
- Doanh thu quý 2/2026 tăng gần 76% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 43,2 triệu USD, nhờ mảng máy bay không người lái đóng góp chính và bị bù trừ một phần bởi kết quả yếu hơn từ mảng thiết bị điện tử hàng không và đào tạo.
- Biên lợi nhuận gộp tăng lên 64% từ mức 61% của cùng kỳ năm trước, phản ánh sự chuyển dịch cơ cấu sản phẩm sang máy bay không người lái.
- Lợi nhuận từ hoạt động kinh doanh cải thiện lên 1,7 triệu USD so với khoản lỗ từ hoạt động kinh doanh 19,7 triệu USD trong quý 2/2025. EBITDA điều chỉnh tăng lên 6,8 triệu USD từ mức 4,7 triệu USD.
- Giá trị đơn hàng tồn đọng mảng máy bay không người lái tăng khoảng 9% so với quý trước lên khoảng 163 triệu USD. Giá trị này bao gồm toàn bộ các đơn hàng quốc tế, chủ yếu cho dòng RQ-35, và chưa bao gồm đơn hàng tồn đọng tại Mỹ.
- Ban lãnh đạo tái khẳng định dự báo tăng trưởng doanh thu cả năm 2026 từ 15% đến 25%, mặc dù dự kiến áp lực tỷ giá hối đoái gia tăng vài triệu USD trong nửa cuối năm.
- Dòng RQ-35 đã nhận được chứng nhận Blue UAS, trong khi kế hoạch sản xuất RQ-70 vẫn dự kiến bắt đầu vào tháng 1/2027. Các mẫu JC250 và JX250 vẫn đi đúng tiến độ cho chuyến bay đầu tiên vào cuối năm 2026.
Dữ liệu tài chính quan trọng
| Chỉ số | Quý 2/2026 | Quý 2/2025 | Thay đổi hoặc bối cảnh |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doanh thu | 43,2 triệu USD | 24,6 triệu USD | Tăng gần 76% so với cùng kỳ năm trước |
| Lợi nhuận gộp | 27,7 triệu USD | 15,0 triệu USD | Doanh thu mảng drone cao hơn và cơ cấu sản phẩm thuận lợi |
| Biên lợi nhuận gộp | 64% | 61% | Tăng 3 điểm phần trăm |
| Lợi nhuận (Lỗ) từ hoạt động kinh doanh | 1,7 triệu USD | (19,7) triệu USD | Sự cải thiện phản ánh doanh thu và biên lợi nhuận cao hơn cùng với chi phí IPO của năm trước |
| Lợi nhuận (Lỗ) ròng | (2,0) triệu USD | 5,9 triệu USD | Lỗ ròng trong quý 2/2026 |
| EBITDA | 5,1 triệu USD | 18,9 triệu USD | — |
| EBITDA điều chỉnh | 6,8 triệu USD | 4,7 triệu USD | Tăng so với cùng kỳ năm trước |
| Tiền mặt tại ngày 30 tháng 6 năm 2026 | 25,9 triệu USD | — | Số dư cuối quý |
| Tiền mặt sơ bộ tại ngày 31 tháng 7 năm 2026 | Khoảng 56 triệu USD | — | Tăng sau khi thu hồi các khoản phải thu mảng drone quốc tế |
| Nợ tại ngày 30 tháng 6 năm 2026 | 6,8 triệu USD | — | — |
| Đơn hàng tồn đọng mảng drone | Khoảng 163 triệu USD | — | Tăng khoảng 9% so với quý trước |
Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động
Hệ thống máy bay không người lái
Hoạt động giao drone là động lực doanh thu chính trong quý 2. Giá trị đơn hàng tồn đọng khoảng 163 triệu USD bao gồm toàn bộ các đơn hàng quốc tế và chủ yếu liên quan đến mẫu RQ-35, với đóng góp nhỏ từ RQ-70. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến phần lớn đơn hàng tồn đọng này sẽ chuyển thành doanh thu trong vòng 12 tháng.
Dòng RQ-35 đã nhận được chứng nhận Blue UAS, giúp mẫu drone này đủ điều kiện để chính phủ và bộ quốc phòng Mỹ mua sắm theo các yêu cầu của NDAA. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết công ty đã phản hồi nhiều yêu cầu báo giá từ phía Mỹ, nhưng các cơ hội kinh doanh tại Mỹ vẫn chưa được đưa vào giá trị đơn hàng tồn đọng.
AIRO cũng đã giới thiệu nền tảng ISR tầm xa RQ-70. Hệ thống này được thiết kế với thời gian hoạt động lên tới 8 giờ và tầm bay 100 km, bao gồm cả khả năng hoạt động trong môi trường bị mất tín hiệu GPS. Ban lãnh đạo tái khẳng định dự kiến bắt đầu sản xuất vào tháng 1/2027 và mô tả sự quan tâm ban đầu từ các khách hàng quốc phòng là rất lớn.
Phát triển JC250 và JX250
Drone chở hàng JC250 và biến thể ISR JX250 vẫn đi đúng tiến độ cho chuyến bay đầu tiên vào cuối năm 2026. Chi phí phát triển riêng của công ty hiện thấp hơn từ 10% đến 13% so với kỳ vọng nội bộ nhờ nền tảng chung giữa các dòng sản phẩm, đàm phán với nhà cung cấp, hiệu ứng cộng hưởng nền tảng và việc thực thi R&D hiệu quả.
Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các biến thể drone chở hàng và ISR không người lái này có chi phí phát triển thấp hơn đáng kể so với nền tảng vận chuyển hành khách từng được công ty xem xét trước đây.
Thiết bị điện tử hàng không và đào tạo
Doanh thu mảng thiết bị điện tử hàng không nhìn chung đi ngang so với quý trước, với nhu cầu sản phẩm ổn định. AIRO đã hợp nhất mảng thiết bị điện tử hàng không và hoạt động mở rộng mảng drone tại Mỹ về Phoenix, đồng thời kỳ vọng các hiệu ứng cộng hưởng về vận hành và chuỗi cung ứng sẽ xuất hiện trong các quý tới.
Kết quả mảng đào tạo vẫn thấp hơn kỳ vọng. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết nguyên nhân là do mức độ tương thích hạn chế giữa các đơn đặt hàng công việc hiện tại của chính phủ Mỹ với năng lực của AIRO, cũng như cấu trúc thâm dụng vốn của phân khúc này. Công ty đang đánh giá các phương án chiến lược thay thế và dự kiến sẽ quyết định hướng đi cho mảng này vào cuối năm.
Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo
- AIRO duy trì dự báo tăng trưởng doanh thu cả năm 2026 ở mức 15% đến 25% so với cùng kỳ năm trước.
- Doanh thu nửa đầu năm chiếm khoảng 50% kỳ vọng cả năm hiện tại của ban lãnh đạo sau khi một đợt giao drone quan trọng được chuyển từ quý 3 sang quý 2.
- Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến doanh thu nửa cuối năm sẽ tương đương hoặc cao hơn một chút so với doanh thu nửa đầu năm.
- Doanh thu quý 3 dự kiến sẽ giảm so với quý 2, sau đó tăng trưởng mạnh hơn vào quý 4. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến doanh thu quý 4 sẽ cao hơn một chút so với quý 2.
- Áp lực tỷ giá hối đoái gia tăng dự kiến sẽ làm giảm doanh thu nửa cuối năm vài triệu USD so với các giả định trước đó. Tác động này đã được đưa vào kế hoạch dự báo được duy trì.
- Biên lợi nhuận gộp cả năm dự kiến sẽ giảm nhẹ so với năm 2025 và nhìn chung duy trì tương đương với mức của nửa đầu năm 2026.
- EBITDA điều chỉnh cả năm vẫn dự kiến sẽ âm ở mức từ 15 đến 19 triệu USD, trong đó kết quả hàng quý nhìn chung theo sát nhịp độ doanh thu.
- Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng sẽ chuyển sang dòng tiền tự do dương từ năm 2027 trở đi.
Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi
Kết quả kinh doanh hàng quý của AIRO vẫn rất nhạy cảm với thời điểm giao các lô hàng drone lớn. Việc đẩy sớm một đợt giao hàng lớn sang quý 2 dự kiến sẽ góp phần làm giảm doanh thu quý 3 so với quý trước.
Tỷ giá hối đoái là một hạn chế khác trong ngắn hạn do công ty có hoạt động kinh doanh quốc tế rộng rãi. Ban lãnh đạo hiện dự kiến tác động lên doanh thu nửa cuối năm sẽ lớn hơn so với giả định trước đây.
Phân khúc đào tạo vẫn thâm dụng vốn và đạt kết quả dưới kỳ vọng, dẫn đến việc xem xét lại chiến lược. Ban lãnh đạo cũng đề cập đến các vấn đề về cấp phép liên quan đến chính phủ Ukraine đã ảnh hưởng đến tiến độ của các liên doanh Nord và Bullitt, đồng thời nhấn mạnh rằng sự tăng trưởng của công ty không phụ thuộc vào bất kỳ đối tác đơn lẻ nào.
AIRO tiếp tục đầu tư vào công suất sản xuất và các sản phẩm mới. Mặc dù chi phí phát triển JC250 và JX250 thấp hơn kế hoạch, ban lãnh đạo vẫn dự kiến EBITDA điều chỉnh cả năm sẽ tiếp tục âm đáng kể.
Điểm tin nổi bật từ phiên Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích
Các chuyên gia phân tích tập trung vào cơ cấu đơn hàng tồn đọng, các cơ hội đơn hàng tại Mỹ, nhu cầu đối với RQ-70, chi phí phát triển và dòng tiền tự do. Ban lãnh đạo làm rõ rằng giá trị đơn hàng tồn đọng 163 triệu USD hiện tại không bao gồm các đơn hàng tại Mỹ. Chứng nhận Blue UAS được xem là bước đi then chốt để chuyển đổi danh mục cơ hội tại Mỹ thành các đơn hàng chính thức và đơn hàng tồn đọng.
Về thanh khoản, ban lãnh đạo lý giải số dư tiền mặt thấp vào ngày 30/6 so với ngày 31/7 chủ yếu là do các đợt giao hàng vào cuối quý và thời điểm thu hồi khoản phải thu. Việc thu hồi nợ sau đó đã nâng tiền mặt sơ bộ lên khoảng 56 triệu USD.
Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các phương án chiến lược cho mảng đào tạo vẫn đang được xem xét, trong khi máy bay không người lái và thiết bị điện tử hàng không được xác định là các ưu tiên phân bổ vốn cốt lõi của công ty. AIRO cũng đang đánh giá các mối quan hệ đối tác và thương vụ thâu tóm có thể giúp mở rộng danh mục mảng drone, thiết bị điện tử hàng không và thiết bị điện tử, đồng thời giảm bớt sự biến động doanh thu hàng quý.
Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh
Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh
Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo
Operator
Thank you for standing by. My name is Jonathan, and I will be your conference moderator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aero Q2 2026 earnings call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Jack Senft, Investor Relations at Aero. Please go ahead.
Unknown Executive
Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Aero Group Holdings, Incorporated second quarter 2026 earnings call. We appreciate you joining us today and look forward to sharing an update on our progress and performance. With me on the call are Dr. Chiranjeev Kathuria, our Executive Chairman, Captain Joseph Burns, our Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Mariya Pylypiv, our Chief Financial Officer. Today's call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including but not limited to statements relating to Aero's 2026 outlook.
Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause our actual results, performance, or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements represent management's beliefs and assumptions only as of the date made. Information on factors that could affect the company's financial results is included in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC from time to time. In addition to our prepared remarks, our earnings press release, SEC filings, and a replay of today's call can be found on our Investor Relations website at investor.theaerogroup.com. We have also posted our earnings presentation on the Investor Relations section of our website.
In addition, during today's call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures are in addition to, and not a substitute for, or superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures and the discussion of the limitations of using non-GAAP measures versus their closest GAAP equivalents is available in our earnings release. Additionally, we plan to discuss drone segment backlog, a definition of which can be found in our earnings release. We will also discuss our cash balance as of July 31, 2026, which is a preliminary estimate based on information available to us as of the date of this presentation. Additional information on this metric can be found in the earnings presentation on our Investor Relations website.
With that, I will turn it over to our Executive Chairman, Dr. Chiranjeev Kathuria.
Chirinjeev Kathuria
Thanks, Jack, and thank you all for joining us today. Aero delivered a strong second quarter that was marked by revenue outperformance against expectations driven by solid execution within our drone segment. Gross margins improved to 64%, leading to a small operating profit for the quarter, a big improvement from the loss we saw in the same period last year. Looking ahead, and as Mariya will discuss in her section, we are reiterating full-year revenue growth guidance of 15% to 25%. She will detail some additional thoughts to think through the rest of the year. On top of this, total drone backlog grew roughly 9% from last quarter to approximately $163 million.
On the strategic front, it was also a busy quarter. The RQ-35 drone achieved Blue UAS certification, which opens up meaningful new opportunities in U.S. defense procurement. We also unveiled our new RQ-70 long-range ISR platform. Development continues on the JC250 and the JX250 cargo and ISR drone variants, and costs there are coming in below expectations, with the first flight still on track for later this year. We remain squarely focused on the unmanned drone market. Second quarter was a solid quarter of execution, and we expect that momentum to continue as we scale manufacturing, diversify our revenue base, and stay disciplined on cost, all while continuing to invest in Aero's next phase of growth.
With that, let me turn it over to Joe to discuss our strategy and the operational highlights.
Joseph Burns
Thank you, Chiranjeev, and thank you all for joining us on today's earnings call. I am happy to report second quarter results that exceeded expectations, finishing out a strong first half of the year. Our second quarter results were marked by on-time drone deliveries plus multiple announcements. These recent developments highlight our execution on strategy, but we are not done here. While second quarter top-line results mark sequential growth versus our 1Q performance, this demonstrates the variable nature of our business. Still, second quarter results topped expectations. We are reiterating our full-year guidance ranges we previously provided. Mariya will walk through the financial details later in the call.
Now let me provide some updates on our portfolio and strategic positioning at Aero. We have a solid, growing portfolio of products and services. We remain focused on the overall drone market, whether it be through new product developments or through partnerships and inorganic opportunities. We are actively working to reduce quarterly variability by expanding our international and domestic revenue base. One such milestone on our product side, and one that I'm especially pleased to highlight, is that our RQ-35 drone is now officially Blue UAS certified. With this approval, the RQ-35 is recognized by the Department of Defense as a secure, compliant unmanned aircraft system, eligible for government and defense procurement under NDAA requirements.
As most of you know, Blue UAS streamlines access to the DoD and federal procurement channels, accelerating our ability to compete for and secure U.S. defense contracts, which we expect will support Aero's long-term revenue growth across domestic and international markets. We believe the Blue UAS milestone is a testament to the RQ-35, from its embedded technology, use cases, and performance on the battlefield. The RQ-35 and now our recently unveiled RQ-70 continue to set our technology apart from the rest of the pack. The RQ-35 is battle-tested, having been deployed in the Ukraine conflict, and the platform is extremely quiet, hand-launched, and purpose-built for ISR missions. It has demonstrated real resilience, even against electronic warfare and in GPS and GNSS-denied environments.
With up to 50 kilometers of range and 150 minutes of flight time, it delivers extended time on target, quick frontline serviceability with a smart battery for reliable performance. The RQ-35 platform also offers onboard AI with edge computing, which enables real-time identification and classification of enemy assets and threats, while strengthening navigation, situational awareness, and mission execution. This drives faster, more informed decisions in the field. As a note, edge computing brings our flying servers closer to the battle, allowing us to significantly speed up and improve target recognition and decision speed, which reduces the already jammed bandwidth required by other competitor systems. Our goal is to embed AI across all of our product and service offerings at Aero.
The RQ-70 is our newest platform, built on years of RQ-35 battle data and leveraging our existing manufacturing and NDAA supply chain. We are already engaged with multiple defense customers on future deployment. It offers configuration flexibility between standard, long-range, and VTOL configurations and includes a modular design that lets it serve as a standalone ISR drone for NATO and allied customers. Our RQ-70 is built for up to 8 hours of endurance, 100 kilometers of range, and resilience in GPS-denied environments. We are reaffirming expected production start in January 2027. Capabilities such as these further set Aero apart with strong customer validation to date. We are building on that momentum with new initiatives and will continue to provide updates in the quarters ahead.
On the product side, we're making great progress developing our cargo and ISR drone variants, the JC250 and JX250. We have been strategically evaluating and selecting suppliers for the vehicle, and we are reaffirming our expectation for the first flight later this year. I am also happy to report that Aero-specific costs for development are running below our internal expectations by a low double-digit percent. There are a few driving factors. First, because the cargo and ISR variants share a common foundation, we are developing them at a fraction of the cost of their passenger counterpart. Second, we have made real progress in supply chain negotiations, which is lowering our input costs. Third, we are realizing synergies across the platform faster than we had modeled. And finally, our R&D team has been executing efficiently, which is keeping development costs disciplined. Taken together, these factors are giving us confidence in the cost trajectory of this program.
While still in the early innings, all the developments that I mentioned represent our efforts in diversifying our product portfolio and stabilizing revenue variability over time. On the avionics and electronics side of our portfolio, Aero delivered largely flat revenue quarter-over-quarter as demand for our avionics products remained stable and consistent with the prior quarter. Despite the static growth year-to-date, we are actively advancing next-generation sensor and navigation solutions, which were on display at the EAA AirVenture Oshkosh in late July. We received solid feedback at the trade show with customers highlighting our product reliability and functionality. Avionics continues to play a critical and strategic role within our broader company profile. With our avionics and ramping U.S. drone operations now consolidated under one roof in Phoenix, we expect synergies here to begin bearing fruit in the coming quarters.
These dynamics are part of what reinforces Aero's long-term competitive advantage. Over time, we expect to bring more avionics systems in-house across our unmanned platforms, streamlining operations, reducing supply chain complexity, and ultimately strengthening our gross margin profile. Lastly, on the services side, we are continuing to evaluate strategic alternatives for training, and we expect to have an update on that direction by the end of the year. We believe the training segment remains a valuable asset with a significant long-term opportunity, although the segment is capital-intensive and often requires meaningful ongoing investment. Recall, while underlying demand persists within this segment, performance here has been below expectations. This is driven by the fact that the task orders coming out of the U.S. government are not within the strengths of Aero.
We believe this narrative will shift over time, and we are positioning, investing, and strengthening our training asset to pursue upcoming long-term close air support training opportunities. That said, we are exploring all possible avenues for the business, but our focus remains on unmanned systems. Overall, we are encouraged by the momentum generated across our portfolio during the second quarter. From achieving Blue UAS certification for the RQ-35 and advancing customer engagement around our new RQ-70 platform to progressing development of our cargo and ISR drone variants and positioning our avionics business for future synergies, we continue to execute on our strategy of expanding capabilities, diversifying revenue streams, and embedding AI across our offerings. While there is still work ahead, we believe these milestones reinforce the strength of our technology and market position, and we look forward to building on this momentum in the quarters to come.
We remain disciplined on our capital initiatives. We continue to evaluate inorganic opportunities carefully, focusing on acquisitions that would be accretive in the near term and that strategically enhance our product portfolio, namely for drones, avionics, and electronics. We also see M&A as having the potential to play an important role in reducing Aero's quarterly revenue variability over time. As I have discussed in the past, our balance sheet gives us real flexibility to act when the right opportunity comes along, and selective M&A will continue to play a vital role in how we endeavor to maximize long-term shareholder value. With the multiple drone deliveries in 2Q, and given the timing of these drone deliveries at quarter end, our cash balance as of July 31, 2026, was approximately $56 million, significantly strengthening Aero's balance sheet.
In closing, the initiatives, discipline, and efforts we have employed to date bolster our strategy of delivering mission-ready ISR systems that can be produced, upgraded, and supported at scale. I'm also grateful for the colleagues beside me today and for every employee who makes this company what it is. Our leadership team brings extensive industry experience to the table, and as we continue to add key personnel, we are further strengthening our competitive position in the market. With that, I will turn it over to Mariya, who will walk you through the financial results in more detail. Mariya?
Mariya Pylypiv
Thank you, Joe, and good morning, everyone. For the second quarter of 2026, revenue was $43.2 million, compared to $24.6 million in the second quarter of 2025. This represents growth of nearly 76% year-over-year. Revenue for the quarter was ahead of expectations, driven by outperformance against expectations in our drone segment, partially offset by underperformance in avionics and training. Gross profit for the quarter was $27.7 million, representing a gross margin of 64%, compared to a gross profit of $15 million and gross margin of 61% versus the same period last year. The improvement in gross margins, both sequentially and year-over-year, was also driven by a product mix shift back towards drone products, consistent with expectations. Recall, our first quarter margins were impacted by upgrade revenue, negatively impacting margins.
Operating income for the quarter was $1.7 million versus negative $19.7 million in the second quarter of 2025. This year-over-year improvement is a result of higher revenue, improved gross margins, and IPO-related costs incurred in the prior year period. We remain disciplined on costs while continuing to invest selectively in the infrastructure needed to support our growth. Our second quarter net loss was $2 million versus a net income of $5.9 million in the second quarter 2025. Second quarter 2026 EBITDA was $5.1 million compared to $18.9 million in the prior year period. On an adjusted basis, EBITDA was $6.8 million, up from $4.7 million in the second quarter 2025.
As Joe mentioned, on the cost side for our JC250 and JX250 platform, I am happy to report that development costs are tracking below our internal expectations. The shared foundation between our cargo and ISR variants means we are developing them at a fraction of the cost of the passenger version, and we are realizing savings beyond our original projections by roughly a low double-digit percentage. We retain flexibility to adjust our spending pace up or down as conditions warrant. Right now, though, we believe the right path forward is deliberate, efficient investment to put the required infrastructure in place to support our next phase of growth.
Turning to cash flow and liquidity, as of June 30, 2026, we had $25.9 million in cash on the balance sheet, with $6.8 million in debt. Accounts receivables were higher than usual at quarter end, driven by the multiple drone deliveries late in the quarter. As of July 31, we had approximately $56 million of cash, primarily reflecting the subsequent collection of international drone receivables outstanding at quarter end. This strengthened our liquidity position and provides us with continued flexibility to execute against our strategic priorities. As of June 30, 2026, we had roughly $163 million in drone backlog. We expect the majority of this backlog to convert to revenue within the next 12 months. We will be updating our backlog to include U.S. opportunities and ongoing pursuits in the coming quarters. We expect this will meaningfully increase the total backlog as those orders are incorporated.
We define backlog as orders we reasonably expect to convert to revenue over the next 12 months. As this metric provides visibility into near-term demand, our broader pipeline continues to expand, underscoring the long-term demand trends we have discussed throughout today's call. Based on our current visibility, we are reiterating our full-year revenue growth guidance of 15% to 25% year-over-year. Let me provide some additional context on the expected cadence for the remainder of the year. First, 1 material drone delivery originally expected in the third quarter was completed in the second quarter. As a result, first half revenue represented approximately 50% of our current full-year expectations. Second, reflecting that pull forward, we currently expect second half revenue to be in line with, or modestly above, first half revenue. Within the second half, we expect third quarter revenue to decline sequentially from the second quarter, followed by a stronger fourth quarter. We currently expect fourth quarter revenue to be modestly above the second quarter.
Third, given the international nature of our business, foreign exchange remains a factor in our outlook. We now anticipate greater FX headwinds in the second half, with an incremental revenue impact of a few million dollars compared with our prior expectations. We have incorporated that impact into our outlook and remain confident in our full-year guidance range. We continue to expect modest gross margin compression versus 2025, with full-year gross margin broadly in line with first half levels.
Turning to profitability, we continue to expect full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the negative mid to high teens millions, with the quarterly cadence expected to broadly follow revenue. In closing, our strategy remains focused on 3 priorities: diversifying our revenue base, scaling manufacturing, and accelerating new product introductions. As those products ramp up and make up a larger share of revenue, we expect that to reduce quarterly volatility and strengthen backlog growth over time. Specifically, with the introduction of the RQ-70, the first delivery of the Zentra camera suite, and the JC250 and JX250 coming online late next year, we expect to begin seeing the benefits of that revenue stability next year, with continued improvements in the quarters and years to follow.
That progress is exactly why fiscal year '26 is a year of accelerated investment for us. As I have said before, we are still early in our growth phase and we intend to invest accordingly, while staying disciplined on costs and preserving flexibility to adjust our cost structure as needed. That balance supports our confidence in Aero's long-term growth trajectory. With that, Operator, we're ready for questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Colin Canfield from Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
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Colin Canfield
Maybe if we could start on drone order trends to parse out the mix of U.S. and international drone orders for the RQ-35, discuss the milestones that you need to see to essentially increase the backlog. The comment you made on materially increasing backlog, basically, what milestones does it take to recognize that backlog increase? And then if you could also talk about early customer interest for the RQ-70.
Mariya Pylypiv
Hi Colin, thank you for your question. So I'll start. Our $163 million backlog represents international drone backlog and does not currently include any U.S. backlog. We expect that the majority of that backlog will convert to revenue over the next 12 months. So naturally, the portion of it extends into 2027. In terms of the U.S., we have responded to a number of RFQs and continue to see a growing pipeline of opportunities. And as those opportunities convert into orders, and we expect them to be able to convert into backlog, it will provide additional visibility for U.S. backlog, which will incrementally add to the $163 million backlog we are currently reporting today. As far as additional products being included, it's mostly composed out of the RQ-35. There's a very small percentage of the RQ-70 being added to this number right now.
Joseph Burns
And if I, this is Joe, good morning, Colin, if I could follow on with that. Some of the milestones, obviously key milestones for us were the Blue UAS certification, which will allow us into the U.S. market. So that was a big one. The RQ-70 announcement and launch of that product are also a big milestone to enhance our expansion of our margin profile. You also mentioned or asked a question about early customer interest in the RQ-70. It's been very strong because it does fill a gap in sort of that high-end ISR market, that long duration flight, ease of operations, and low costs. So we feel very, very strong about the RQ-70 filling in the interest category as well.
Colin Canfield
Maybe if we could talk about free cash flow. The foundational building blocks and kind of the level of investment related to the defense transport platform. Just kind of walk through how you think about the investment on that program and flexing down, and perhaps maybe kind of how you think about that relative to the company's ability to generate free cash flow. Thank you.
Mariya Pylypiv
Thank you, Colin. So I'll start and then I'll let Joe add anything I missed. So in terms of free cash flow, we are very comfortable right now with our liquidity position, and it's closely tracking our internal expectations. The biggest factor for the quarter was timing as we were building inventory to support deliveries. So those deliveries occurred at the end of the quarter, a significant portion of receivables converted into cash. And as I mentioned earlier, as of July 31, our cash and cash equivalents were approximately $56 million.
In terms of investments for the air mobility, our costs have been reduced, which Aero is very comfortable with. Right now they're running in the low double digits below initial expectations. And while we have not provided the size of the investments, we are still tracking on time. And overall, because we shifted our focus on ISR and cargo drones, it significantly reduced our expected development costs compared to the passenger platform, which obviously provides significant upside for our liquidity. And if we think about moving forward, free cash flow, we anticipate there should be a shift into positive cash flow in 2027 and beyond.
Joseph Burns
That's great. Thank you. And to expand on the JX250 and the JC250, our ISR and cargo variants of that large cargo transport, you know, we've talked about in the past about eVTOL. This is an eVTOL aircraft, but it's different than what we had previously discussed in the passenger realm. We don't carry passengers on this. It's basically a large cargo drone. Very long duration, hybrid drive can use conventional fuels. So we think there is a new and growing market for this type of transport if you think about sort of combat operations, the ability to resupply, get critical medical information to and from, etc. So for us, it's a real opportunity to jump into somewhat of a new market. You're starting to see that, obviously, in this industry as well.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Andre Madrid from U.S. Bancorp BTIG. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Andre Madrid
I was wondering if you could provide us an update on where you're at with Nord and Bullitt, those JVs.
Joseph Burns
Sure. This is Joe. Good question, Andre. So as you probably know at this point, there are some significant order issues or significant issues with the Ukrainian government's permitting process. You know, in their current [indiscernible] government, there is [indiscernible] of aircraft coming into [indiscernible] transfers. We are still [indiscernible] and we're working [indiscernible] council over there and [indiscernible] these permits. But that said, the partnerships and JVs like these are really a compelling route for us. I want to make it clear that we're not dependent on any one of them for growth.
The partnership and JVs will expand our access to multiple markets and help accelerate our growth plans. We're currently evaluating additional partnerships as well in this particular market, and those specifically for drone dominance. So we're excited about other opportunities. It's really opened our eyes as to what's available, what the markets look like for us. And with the ability for our certification routes, we're excited about [indiscernible] in these things moving forward.
Andre Madrid
That's really helpful. And then maybe pivoting to training for a bit. I know you guys had mentioned last quarter your decision to pursue strategic alternatives or consider strategic alternatives there. Is there any update that you can provide as to maybe how that's tracking and when the decision might be made?
Joseph Burns
Sure, we're planning to have decisions by year-end. We're making a lot of discussions around it. As we mentioned before, we're actively evaluating a range of strategic options. And our intent in disclosing this is to be transparent with the market. Well, really our core focus right now is on drone and avionics operations. And we see limited synergies between the training segment and our core business, which is important while we're evaluating the long-term strategic fit. Training is expensive. We have made a significant investment so far, but we're still excited about the opportunities in this particular business. But as always, drones are our main focus, and that's where we want to look at focusing most of our capital.
Andre Madrid
Yes, that's really helpful, Joe. I appreciate it. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. There are no further questions. We have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
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