การประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3/2026 ของ Marex (MRX): รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 53%, คงเป้าหมาย PBT ปี 2027

ประเด็นสำคัญ

• Marex ทำรายได้ในไตรมาส 3/2026 สูงสุดเป็นประวัติการณ์ที่ 743 ล้านดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้น 53% เมื่อเทียบเป็นรายปี ขณะที่กำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วเพิ่มขึ้น 75% แตะที่ 176 ล้านดอลลาร์
• อัตรากำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วแตะระดับ 23.7% หรือประมาณ 24% โดยมีอัตราผลตอบแทนต่อส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้นที่ปรับปรุงแล้วอยู่ที่ 36% และกำไรต่อหุ้นที่ปรับปรุงแล้วอยู่ที่ 1.75 ดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้น 73%
• ทั้ง 4 กลุ่มธุรกิจมีรายได้เติบโต โดยรายได้จากธุรกิจ Prime เพิ่มขึ้นเท่าตัวเป็น 115 ล้านดอลลาร์ รายได้จากธุรกิจ FX เพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่าสองเท่าเป็น 59 ล้านดอลลาร์ และรายได้จากธุรกิจ Market Making เพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่าสามเท่าเป็น 151 ล้านดอลลาร์
• ยอดเงินคงเหลือเฉลี่ยของลูกค้าในธุรกิจ Clearing อยู่ที่ 1.87 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้น 41% ส่งผลให้รายได้ดอกเบี้ยสุทธิของธุรกิจ Clearing เพิ่มขึ้น 35% แม้อัตราดอกเบี้ยจะลดลงเมื่อเทียบเป็นรายปี
• การเข้าซื้อกิจการช่วยหนุนการเติบโตเชิงโครงสร้าง โดย Levmet สร้างกำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วในระดับสิบกว่าต้น ๆ ในไตรมาสนี้ ขณะที่ Webb Traders และ Winterflood ช่วยขยายขีดความสามารถด้านการดูแลสภาพคล่องในตลาดตราสารทุนของ Marex
• ฝ่ายบริหารยังคงมั่นใจในเป้าหมายการเติบโตของกำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วที่ 10% ถึง 20% ในปี 2027 จากฐานปี 2026 ที่รายงาน ซึ่งรวมถึงผลกระทบเต็มปีจากการเข้าซื้อกิจการที่เสร็จสิ้นแล้วและ Bright Point

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติการ

Clearing

รายได้จากธุรกิจ Clearing เพิ่มขึ้น 27% แตะที่ 170 ล้านดอลลาร์ ยอดเงินคงเหลือเฉลี่ยของลูกค้าเพิ่มขึ้น 41% แตะที่ 1.87 หมื่นล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่การเปิดรับลูกค้าใหม่ช่วยเพิ่มยอดเงินคงเหลือมากกว่า 1 พันล้านดอลลาร์ตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน

รายได้ดอกเบี้ยสุทธิเพิ่มขึ้น 35% แตะที่ 83 ล้านดอลลาร์ เนื่องจากยอดเงินคงเหลือที่เติบโตมีน้ำหนักมากกว่าอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ลดลง รายได้ค่าคอมมิชชั่นสุทธิเพิ่มขึ้น 16% แตะที่ 77 ล้านดอลลาร์ กำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วเพิ่มขึ้น 26% แตะที่ 85 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยมีอัตรากำไรอยู่ที่ประมาณ 50%

นอกจากนี้ Marex ยังรายงานความคืบหน้าอย่างต่อเนื่องกับลูกค้าระดับสถาบันขนาดใหญ่ โดยจำนวนลูกค้าที่สร้างรายได้ต่อปีมากกว่า 5 ล้านดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้นเป็น 82 ราย จาก 49 รายในปี 2025 และ 36 รายในปี 2024

Agency and Execution

รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 40% แตะที่ 361 ล้านดอลลาร์ นำโดยกิจกรรมด้านหลักทรัพย์ โดยรายได้จากธุรกิจ Prime เพิ่มขึ้นเท่าตัวแตะ 115 ล้านดอลลาร์ ซึ่งได้แรงหนุนจากการประหยัดต่อขนาดที่มากขึ้นและการเติบโตของลูกค้าระดับสถาบัน ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่ายอดเงินคงเหลือยังคงอยู่ที่ประมาณสองเท่าของระดับในปีก่อนหน้า แม้ตลาดตราสารทุนจะชะลอตัวลงและมีแรงกดดันต่อ ETF สำหรับนักลงทุนรายย่อยที่มีการใช้เลเวอเรจบางกองทุนที่เชื่อมโยงกับหุ้นกลุ่ม AI

รายได้จากธุรกิจ FX เพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่าสองเท่าแตะที่ 59 ล้านดอลลาร์ นับตั้งแต่ Marex เข้าซื้อกิจการ Hamilton Court ในเดือนกรกฎาคม 2025 รายได้จากธุรกิจ FX เพิ่มขึ้นถึงสามเท่าเมื่อคิดตามเกณฑ์ run-rate อันเป็นผลมาจากการรวมแพลตฟอร์ม การปรับเปลี่ยนสัดส่วนกลุ่มลูกค้า และมูลค่าธุรกรรมเฉลี่ยที่สูงขึ้น

รายได้จากธุรกิจตราสารทุนเพิ่มขึ้น 23% แตะที่ 66 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่รายได้จากธุรกิจพลังงานลดลง 4% สู่ระดับ 72 ล้านดอลลาร์ กำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วของกลุ่มธุรกิจนี้เพิ่มขึ้น 73% แตะที่ 115 ล้านดอลลาร์ และอัตรากำไรขยายตัวแตะ 32%

Market Making

รายได้จากธุรกิจ Market Making เพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่าสามเท่าแตะที่ 151 ล้านดอลลาร์ ซึ่งส่วนหนึ่งสะท้อนถึงช่วงเปรียบเทียบที่มีฐานต่ำผิดปกติ รายได้จากธุรกิจโลหะแตะระดับ 91 ล้านดอลลาร์ เนื่องจากราคาและความผันผวนที่อยู่ในระดับสูงช่วยหนุนกิจกรรมการซื้อขายทั้งในกลุ่มโลหะมีค่า โลหะพื้นฐาน และทองแดง

Levmet มีส่วนสนับสนุนกำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วในระดับสิบกว่าต้น ๆ ในระหว่างไตรมาส รายได้จากหลักทรัพย์เพิ่มขึ้นแตะที่ 36 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยได้แรงหนุนจาก Winterflood และ Webb Traders กำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วของกลุ่มธุรกิจนี้เพิ่มขึ้นสู่ 58 ล้านดอลลาร์ จาก 7 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยมีอัตรากำไรอยู่ที่ 38%

Hedging and Investment Solutions

รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 26% แตะที่ 61 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยรายได้จาก Hedging Solutions เพิ่มขึ้น 42% แตะที่ 32 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่รายได้จาก Financial Products เพิ่มขึ้น 13% แตะที่ 29 ล้านดอลลาร์

กำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วเพิ่มขึ้น 15% แตะที่ 14 ล้านดอลลาร์ แม้อัตรากำไรจะลดลงเหลือ 23% จาก 25% ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าผลการดำเนินงานของ Financial Products ที่ชะลอตัวลงเมื่อเทียบกับครึ่งปีแรกนั้น เป็นผลมาจากความผันผวนของตลาดตราสารทุนที่ลดลง อัตราการเปลี่ยนแปลงของความผันผวนที่ช้าลง และผลกระทบตามฤดูกาลในช่วงเดือนสิงหาคม

โครงการริเริ่มเพื่อการเติบโตใหม่

โซลูชันการคำนวณหลักประกันข้ามตลาด (cross-margining) ของ Marex สำหรับสัญญาฟิวเจอร์สพันธบัตรรัฐบาลสหรัฐและตลาดสปอต มีลูกค้าที่ใช้งานจริงแล้ว 6 ราย และมีลูกค้าในไปป์ไลน์อีก 15 ราย โดยฝ่ายบริหารประเมิน run rate ของรายได้ในปัจจุบันไว้ที่ประมาณ 15 ล้านถึง 20 ล้านดอลลาร์

เมื่อเร็ว ๆ นี้ บริษัทได้เริ่มให้บริการเคลียริ่งบน Kalshi และมีลูกค้าระดับสถาบันรายใหญ่ 6 รายที่พร้อมเข้าซื้อขาย นอกจากนี้ Marex ยังมีแผนที่จะเปิดช่องทางเข้าถึง Polymarket โดยฝ่ายบริหารเน้นย้ำว่า บริษัททำหน้าที่เป็นผู้ให้บริการเคลียริ่งมากกว่าการเป็นผู้ดูแลสภาพคล่องในตลาดคาดการณ์ผลลัพธ์ (prediction markets)

Marex ยังเข้าร่วมในตลาดโทเคนไนเซชันและตลาดที่เกี่ยวข้องกับพลังประมวลผล (compute) ในระยะเริ่มต้น โดยบริษัทได้ทำธุรกรรม OTC swap ครั้งแรกบน Canton Network ร่วมกับ DRW และกำลังทำงานร่วมกับตลาดหลักทรัพย์และผู้ร่วมตลาดเกี่ยวกับสัญญาฟิวเจอร์สพลังประมวลผลที่อาจเกิดขึ้น ทั้งนี้ ฝ่ายบริหารกล่าวว่ากรอบเวลาด้านกฎระเบียบและขนาดสุดท้ายของตลาดเหล่านี้ยังคงมีความไม่แน่นอน

แนวโน้มและคำแนะนำจากฝ่ายบริหาร

ฝ่ายบริหารยังคงมั่นใจในเป้าหมายการเติบโตของกำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วที่ 10% ถึง 20% ในปี 2027 จากระดับของปี 2026 ที่รายงานไว้ โดยฐานของปี 2026 ประกอบด้วยทั้งสภาวะรายได้ที่เอื้ออำนวยและผลขาดทุนด้านเครดิตที่บันทึกไว้ในระหว่างปี

เป้าหมายดังกล่าวได้รวมการมีส่วนร่วมเต็มปีจาก Levmet และ Webb Traders รวมถึง Bright Point ไว้แล้ว แต่ยังไม่ได้รวมการเข้าซื้อกิจการที่ยังดำเนินการไม่แล้วเสร็จอย่างชัดเจน

ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่า สภาวะตลาดและผลการดำเนินงานในเดือนตุลาคมสอดคล้องกับค่าเฉลี่ยตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบันเป็นส่วนใหญ่ โดยคาดว่าธุรกิจจะยังคงดำเนินงานในระดับใกล้เคียงกับปัจจุบัน แต่อาจมีการชะลอตัวตามปกติในช่วงวันหยุดคริสต์มาส

Marex มีดีลที่อาจเกิดขึ้น 4 รายการที่ได้ตกลงเงื่อนไขทางการค้าแล้ว โดยส่วนใหญ่อยู่ในธุรกิจ Clearing และ Prime และกระจุกตัวอยู่ในเอเชียและละตินอเมริกา ขณะที่มีโอกาสทางธุรกิจอีก 4 ถึง 6 รายการที่อยู่ในระยะเริ่มต้น โดยดีลส่วนใหญ่ในระยะใกล้น่าจะลงนามได้ในช่วงไตรมาส 4/2026 หรือไตรมาส 1/2027 แต่การมีส่วนร่วมทางการเงินไม่น่าจะมีนัยสำคัญก่อนครึ่งหลังของปี 2027 เนื่องจากต้องรอการอนุมัติจากหน่วยงานกำกับดูแล

ฝ่ายบริหารยังคงเห็นโอกาสในการขยายอัตรากำไรอย่างค่อยเป็นค่อยไป ผ่านการกระจายสัดส่วนรายได้ที่ดีขึ้น ประโยชน์จากการประหยัดต่อขนาด เทคโนโลยี และผลิตภาพที่ขับเคลื่อนด้วย AI อย่างไรก็ตาม ฝ่ายบริหารคาดว่าการปรับตัวดีขึ้นในอนาคตจะชะลอตัวลงกว่าในปี 2026 และจะประเมินศักยภาพของอัตรากำไรในระยะยาวอีกครั้งเมื่อธุรกิจเข้าใกล้อัตรากำไรก่อนหักภาษีที่ปรับปรุงแล้วที่ระดับ 30%

ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตา

• ตลาดตราสารทุนที่ชะลอตัวลงและความผันผวนที่ลดลงส่งผลกระทบต่อยอดเงินคงเหลือของธุรกิจ Prime และกิจกรรมของ Financial Products ในช่วงไตรมาส 3
• รายได้ดอกเบี้ยสุทธิของกลุ่มบริษัทลดลงเมื่อเทียบเป็นรายปี เนื่องจากค่าใช้จ่ายดอกเบี้ยจากการออกหุ้นกู้ไม่ด้อยสิทธิมูลค่า 500 ล้านดอลลาร์และหุ้นกู้ที่มีอนุพันธ์แฝง (structured notes) ได้หักล้างรายได้ดอกเบี้ยที่เพิ่มขึ้น
• Marex ได้เพิ่มการตั้งสำรองผลขาดทุนด้านเครดิตสุทธิประมาณ 7 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยหลักมาจากการตั้งสำรองผลขาดทุนด้านเครดิตที่คาดว่าจะเกิดขึ้นในขั้นที่ 1 (Stage 1) ทั้งนี้ ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าสิ่งนี้ไม่ได้สะท้อนถึงคุณภาพสินเชื่อขั้นพื้นฐานที่อ่อนแอลงหรือความกังวลเกี่ยวกับลูกค้ารายใดรายหนึ่งโดยเฉพาะ
• การเติบโตของธุรกิจ Prime ในงบดุลจำเป็นต้องใช้เงินทุน ฝ่ายบริหารไม่ได้คาดหวังว่าธุรกิจนี้จะเติบโตในอัตรา 100% เหมือนที่ผ่านมาได้อีก และมองว่าการเติบโตในอนาคตจะขยับเข้าใกล้เคียงกับอัตราการเติบโตของกลุ่มบริษัทโดยรวม
• กรอบเวลาในการเข้าซื้อกิจการยังคงขึ้นอยู่กับการอนุมัติจากหน่วยงานกำกับดูแล โดยเฉพาะในละตินอเมริกา
• ตลาดคาดการณ์ผลลัพธ์ (Prediction markets) โทเคนไนเซชัน และสัญญาฟิวเจอร์สพลังประมวลผล เป็นโอกาสในระยะเริ่มต้นซึ่งยังมีความไม่แน่นอนในด้านการยอมรับใช้งาน ศักยภาพในการสร้างรายได้ และกรอบเวลาด้านกฎระเบียบ

ประเด็นสำคัญจากช่วงถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์

• การคำนวณหลักประกันข้ามตลาด (Cross-margining): ฝ่ายบริหารประเมินว่าการสร้างรายได้ต่อปีในปัจจุบันอยู่ที่ประมาณ 15 ล้านถึง 20 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยประโยชน์เชิงกลยุทธ์ที่สำคัญกว่าคือการดึงดูดลูกค้าระดับสถาบันที่มีความเชี่ยวชาญเข้าสู่แพลตฟอร์มของ Marex เพื่อโอกาสในการขายพ่วง (cross-selling) ที่กว้างขวางยิ่งขึ้น
• ตลาดคาดการณ์ผลลัพธ์ (Prediction markets): ลูกค้าระดับสถาบันให้ความสนใจเป็นอย่างมาก แต่ฝ่ายบริหารไม่ได้ให้ตัวเลขคาดการณ์ปริมาณการซื้อขายหรือรายได้ ทั้งนี้ Marex ตั้งเป้าสร้างรายได้จากการเคลียริ่งผ่านการให้บริการเข้าถึงตลาด แทนที่จะแบกรับความเสี่ยงจากการเป็นผู้ดูแลสภาพคล่อง
• ขีดความสามารถด้าน M&A: ด้วยอัตราส่วนเงินกองทุนที่ปรับด้วยความเสี่ยงที่ 12.3% ฝ่ายบริหารประเมินว่า Marex มีเงินทุนที่สามารถนำไปจัดสรรได้เกือบ 300 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยที่ยังคงรักษาอันดับความน่าเชื่อถือในระดับที่น่าลงทุน (investment-grade) ไว้ได้
• โอกาสในการขายพ่วง (Cross-selling): Marex มีลูกค้า 250 ถึง 300 รายที่สร้างรายได้ต่อปีระหว่าง 1 ล้านถึง 5 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าลูกค้ากลุ่มนี้เป็นกลุ่มเป้าหมายหลักสำหรับการขยายบริการครอบคลุมทั้ง Clearing, Prime, execution และ Solutions
• สัดส่วนการเติบโตของธุรกิจ Prime: ธุรกิจ Prime ในงบดุลเป็นส่วนประกอบที่ใหญ่ที่สุดและให้ผลตอบแทนสูงสุด เหนือกว่า Prime of Prime และ outsourced trading แต่ข้อกำหนดด้านเงินทุนอาจทำให้อัตราการเติบโตชะลอตัวลง
• การผนึกกำลังจากการเข้าซื้อกิจการ: ฝ่ายบริหารคาดว่าการเข้าซื้อกิจการในธุรกิจ Clearing และ Prime จะสร้างการผนึกกำลังทางรายได้ (revenue synergies) หลังจากย้ายเข้าสู่แพลตฟอร์มของ Marex โดยยกตัวอย่างรายได้จากธุรกิจ FX ที่เพิ่มขึ้นเกือบสามเท่านับตั้งแต่การเข้าซื้อ Hamilton Court เป็นข้อพิสูจน์ถึงความสำเร็จของโมเดลนี้

บทถอดเสียงการแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Marex Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Adam Strachan, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Adam Strachan

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today for Marex's Q3 2026 Earnings Call. Speaking today are Ian Lowitt, Group CEO; and Rob Irvin, Group CFO. After their formal remarks, as usual, we will open the call to questions.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain matters discussed in today's call are forward-looking statements relating to future events, management's plans and objectives for the business and the future financial performance of the company that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements, and the risk factors that may affect results are referred to in Marex's press release issued today. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call, and Marex does not undertake any obligation to update them.

Finally, the speakers may refer to certain adjusted or non-IFRS financial measures on this call. A reconciliation schedule of the non-IFRS financial measures to the most directly comparable IFRS measures is also available in today's earnings release. A copy of the release and investor presentation are available on the IR page of the Marex website at marex.com.

I'll now hand the call over to Ian.

Ian Lowitt

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings announcement. Marex has delivered another record quarter with revenues and profits increasing both year-on-year and sequentially. Revenue for the quarter increased 53% year-on-year to $743 million, while adjusted profit before tax rose 75% to $176 million. The adjusted profit before tax margin was 24%. Adjusted return on equity remained very strong at 36%, reflecting our high return on risk business model. Adjusted earnings per share increased 73% to $1.75.

For the first 9 months of the year, revenue reached $2.1 billion and adjusted profit before tax increased 63% to $495 million. On a trailing 12-month basis, adjusted basic earnings per share was $6.25. These results demonstrate our ongoing success executing our strategy. We purposefully expanded our capabilities, diversifying our earnings streams to build a more resilient business capable of delivering sustainable growth. And the third quarter is a further illustration of our strategy working in practice, as I'll discuss in more detail later in my remarks.

While our individual businesses are obviously impacted by market conditions, our goal is to create a portfolio of businesses which can deliver sustainable growth across a range of market environments. The operating environment for commodities remained favorable in the third quarter, where elevated prices, volatility and exchange volumes continue to provide a supportive backdrop. Exchange volumes in aggregate are up 20% year-on-year, above the historical growth trend of 8% to 10%.

In the third quarter, volumes remained robust, increasing 2% over the second quarter levels, although they were down 8% on the very strong first half. Equity markets and volatility associated with those markets were somewhat softer following a strong first half, which affects our Prime and Solutions businesses. Together with the seasonal summer slowdown, this would ordinarily have pointed to some reduction in earnings following a very strong second quarter. However, we delivered another record performance with adjusted profit before tax increasing 6% sequentially.

It is instructive to unpack how we were able to grow in the third quarter, given that backdrop of the summer slowdown and a somewhat less supportive market overall compared to the first half of the year as this helps to illustrate what we mean by structural growth offsetting cyclical factors.

In the third quarter, we benefited from the structural growth associated with the acquisitions of Levmet and Webb Traders, both of which are already making important contributions to earnings and performing well above their pre-acquisition earnings run rates. These businesses have broadened our capabilities across physical commodities and equity derivatives, creating a larger and more diversified market-making franchise.

The Winterflood acquisition has also expanded our equity market-making capabilities. The disposal of its custody business in the second quarter has enabled us to focus on improving margins as we integrate the retained business into Marex. We're also seeing a material expansion of our FX franchise.

Since the acquisition of Hamilton Court in July last year, revenues have tripled on a run rate basis. Importantly, this isn't being driven by taking on additional risk as we have materially tightened our risk standards. We've consolidated 3 separate offerings into one, improved the client mix and increased average ticket sizes. We've also offboarded approximately 200 clients where we saw limited potential for profitable growth. Combined with Marex's broader relationships, geographic reach, infrastructure and ability to invest, these changes are enabling the business to grow very quickly.

In Prime and Clearing, we're also continuing to win larger institutional client mandates and to deepen existing relationships. In Prime, third quarter revenues of $115 million doubled year-on-year, and we're only modestly below the $120 million we made in an exceptionally strong second quarter. Given the softer equity market backdrop, in particular, the repricing of AI-related stocks, which impacted balances in certain retail ETFs, one might have expected a more significant decline sequentially. While our third quarter balances are somewhat lower than the second quarter average, share gains offset some of the market impact and balances remained at around twice the level of a year ago.

The improved brand and position of our Clearing franchise is apparent in the conversations we are now having with clients. The following is an example of how our brand is improving and the receptivity to do business with Marex. As recently as 2 years ago, a leading hedge fund with whom we were looking to expand an existing execution relationship into clearing wouldn't even engage in a conversation about clearing with Marex. Then, a year later, when we were able to initiate the discussion, the conversation was about why they wouldn't move their Clearing business away from their existing banks.

Now, following their decision to clear one product with us, the conversation is about what additional business they can do with us. That's a microcosm of what's happening more broadly. This ongoing progress is apparent in the growing number of clients generating more than $5 million in annualized revenue, which is now up to 82 from 49 in 2025 and 36 in 2024. At the time of our IPO, we had a narrower franchise with earnings heavily influenced by external factors, specifically interest rates and exchange volumes.

We've deliberately expanded into activities with different less correlated earnings drivers, building a portfolio of businesses that can perform well in different environments. Successfully executing that strategy has resulted in consistent earnings growth over the longer term with year-over-year adjusted PBT growth in 19 of the past 20 quarters, including every quarter since our IPO.

Central to our strategy is attracting new, potentially large institutional clients onto our platform and then growing the business we do with them. Providing attractive new services is a cost-effective way to engage with these sophisticated clients in addition to providing potentially important structural growth. On our second quarter earnings call, I shared with you the example of our cross-margining solution for U.S. treasury futures and cash across the CME and DTCC, providing clients with improved capital efficiency.

We've seen very strong client interest with 6 clients now live and a further 15 in the pipeline, including several very large and sophisticated hedge funds. In prediction markets, we are seeing strong institutional demand for access. We recently went live on Kalshi as an FCM and already have 6 major institutional clients ready to trade with us. This includes 2 hedge funds we have been prospecting for some time. We also plan to go live on Polymarket, further expanding the venues available to our institutional clients.

We're also seeing momentum gradually build around tokenization, and we see opportunities both to provide additional services to our existing institutional clients and to participate in what could become a significant new market. During the quarter, for example, we executed the first OTC swap on the Canton Network with DRW, referencing a fully tokenized index. Our work is being well received by participants already active in the space, and we continue to invest and work with our partners on its development.

Another area where we see opportunities to innovate is compute, the processing power needed to run AI models. Investment in AI and related infrastructure is expected to exceed $1 trillion annually, and we are focused on finding a way Marex can provide services. We're already seeing commodity hedging activity from participants in this space, which contribute to our current earnings.

There is also a lot of work underway to develop new hedging products, including what are being referred to as compute futures. Marex intends to participate in the development of these markets, both as a clearer and market maker, and we have the infrastructure in place to support these products as they become available.

We're working with exchanges and other market participants on the development of contracts that could provide effective hedges, helping establish pricing data and educating potential users while providing market access and liquidity to support institutional participation. It's very early in this process, but we're willing to experiment and work with clients and other participants in the ecosystem as the market develops. We don't know how significant these markets will ultimately become, but we believe there is value in being involved at an early stage.

I'll now hand over to Rob to go through the financials in more detail.

Crispin Robert Irvin

Thanks, Ian, and good morning, everyone. We delivered another strong performance in the third quarter, building on the momentum established in the first half. Revenue in the quarter increased 53% year-on-year to $743 million with strong growth across all 4 segments. Total adjusted expenses increased by 44%, driven by performance-based compensation tied to strong revenues, continued investments in technology and infrastructure and the integration of acquisitions. We continue to expand margins with adjusted profit before tax margin increasing to 23.7%.

Adjusted profit before tax increased 75% to $176 million. We also increased net provisions for credit losses by approximately $7 million during the quarter, primarily reflecting an increase in our Stage 1 expected credit loss provisions. Importantly, the increase does not reflect a deterioration in underlying credit quality or concerns relating to any individual client exposures. For the first 9 months, revenue increased 47% to $2.1 billion and adjusted profit before tax increased 63% to $495 million.

I'll now take you through each business segment, starting with Clearing. Clearing had another strong quarter with revenue increasing 27% year-on-year to $170 million. Average Clearing client balances were $18.7 billion, up 41% year-on-year and materially higher than the Q4 2025 average of $14 billion. Robust new client onboarding added more than $1 billion in balances year-to-date, ahead of our annual target, and we continue to deepen relationships with existing clients. This drove a 35% increase in Clearing net interest income to $83 million as balance growth more than offset the year-on-year reduction in interest rates.

Net commission income increased 16% to $77 million, reflecting client wins and increased activity from existing clients. Adjusted profit before tax increased 26% to $85 million, with the margin broadly stable at approximately 50%. For the first 9 months, adjusted profit before tax increased 14% to $222 million.

Agency and Execution delivered another strong quarter with revenue increasing 40% year-on-year to $361 million. Securities revenue increased 58% to $286 million, led by strong growth in Prime, FX and Equities. Prime revenues doubled year-on-year to $115 million, reflecting the increased scale of the business and continued growth in institutional client relationships.

FX revenue more than doubled to $59 million, reflecting strong growth in corporate FX following the acquisition of Hamilton Court last year, alongside continued momentum across the broader FX franchise. Equities revenue increased 23% to $66 million, supported by increased client demand for securities lending and equity derivatives. These performances more than offset lower energy revenue, which declined 4% to $72 million.

Adjusted profit before tax increased 73% to $115 million, with the margin expanding to 32%, reflecting the greater contribution from higher-margin security activities, including Prime and FX. For the first 9 months, adjusted profit before tax increased 68% to $323 million, with the margin increasing to 31%.

Market Making delivered another excellent quarter with revenue more than tripling year-on-year to $151 million, albeit from an unusually low prior year base. Growth reflected strong organic performance, particularly in metals, together with contributions from recent acquisitions in a favorable operating environment. Metals revenue increased to $91 million, reflecting elevated prices and volatility, which supported client activity and hedging demand across precious and base metals, including copper.

Performance also benefited from the contribution from Levmet following completion of the acquisition in June. Securities revenues increased to $36 million, benefiting from Winterflood and the addition of Webb Traders following its acquisition in August. Energy and agricultural revenues also increased, supported by strong client activity. Adjusted profit before tax increased to $58 million compared with $7 million in the prior year period, with the margin expanding significantly to 38%. For the first 9 months, revenue increased 165% to $409 million and adjusted profit before tax increased to $158 million.

Turning to Hedging and Investment Solutions, which delivered revenue of $61 million in the quarter, up 26% year-on-year. Hedging Solutions revenue increased 42% to $32 million, supported by continued client onboarding and strong demand for hedging products across commodities and FX. Financial Products revenue increased 13% to $29 million, driven by continued growth in structured product issuance and new client wins.

Adjusted profit before tax increased 15% to $14 million, with the margin at 23% compared to 25% in the prior year period. Lower equity volatility impacted financial products during the seasonally quieter summer period, increasing revenues and margin versus the second quarter. For the first 9 months, revenue increased 68% to $225 million and adjusted profit before tax increased 145% to $71 million, reflecting the continued growth and increased scale of the business.

Turning now to net interest income at the group level. In the third quarter, NII was $36 million compared to $39 million in Q3 2025 as higher interest expense more than offset the growth in interest income. Interest income grew by $28 million year-on-year, reflecting $6.6 billion of higher average balances, which more than offset a 60 basis point reduction in the average Fed funds rate. However, higher interest expense related to the group's $500 million senior debt issuance completed in April and structured note issuances in Solutions reduced net interest income overall.

As we've said previously, we continue to hold significant liquidity headroom. While this creates a modest near-term headwind to group NII, it reflects a deliberate and prudent decision to maintain substantial liquidity headroom, strengthening the balance sheet and preserving our capacity to support clients and pursue future growth opportunities. NII increased by $6 million compared with the second quarter, primarily reflecting the 10 basis points increase in the average Fed funds rate.

Turning to the balance sheet. Approximately 80% of our assets continue to be directly driven by client activity, which is highly liquid and largely self-funding in nature. Total assets increased to $45.4 billion at the 30th of September, reflecting continued growth across the franchise, particularly within our prime business. After netting client assets and liabilities, the residual balance sheet is primarily comprised of corporate cash and other assets, funded by group liabilities, including our structured notes and senior debt issuances.

We continue to manage capital and liquidity conservatively with our internal framework designed to support the group's growth, maintain substantial financial flexibility and underpin our investment-grade credit ratings. Following our redomicile to Bermuda, the group is no longer subject to consolidated FCA capital and liquidity requirements. However, our regulated entities remain subject to the applicable local requirements, and we continue to manage the group against conservative internal standards consistent with our previous consolidated framework.

Our key benchmark remains maintaining sufficient capital to support our investment-grade credit ratings. Our risk-adjusted capital ratio was 12.3%, comfortably above the 10% level S&P defines as strongly capitalized, and we remain comfortable with our capital headroom. On liquidity, we finished the quarter with $8.9 billion of total funding sources, up from $6.2 billion at year-end and $1.3 billion of liquidity headroom, providing significant capacity above our internal assessed requirements. Taken together, our capital, liquidity and funding position remains strong and provides the flexibility to continue supporting clients and executing our strategy.

Finally, closing with risk management. Average daily VaR for the first 9 months was $5.6 million, reflecting the increased scale of the business and the market environment. 87% of trading days were profitable with 100% of weeks and months generating positive trading revenue.

That concludes the financial review. And now I'll hand you back to Ian.

Ian Lowitt

To conclude, the third quarter was a further demonstration of our strategy working in practice. We're executing against the priorities we've laid out, growing our existing businesses, winning mandates from larger institutional clients and expanding our capabilities through acquisition and innovation.

The market backdrop remains favorable, particularly in commodities. And based on what we can see today, we expect that to continue in the near term. While market conditions will, of course, vary, we're focused on what we can control, executing our strategy, gaining market share, deepening client relationships and integrating acquisitions.

Looking ahead, the announced acquisition of Bright Point will further strengthen our Clearing franchise in Asia and enhance our access to China, creating additional opportunities for growth in 2027. Our acquisition pipeline remains very strong, and we see further opportunities to expand our capabilities and support future growth.

With our S&P RAC ratio above 12%, this gives us meaningful capacity to fund future acquisitions. We are currently in the middle of our budgeting process. And based on what we see today, remain very comfortable with our target of delivering 10% to 20% adjusted PBT growth in 2027 from this year's level. We have a clear strategy. We're executing against it, and the results continue to demonstrate that it's working. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Bill Katz with TD Cowen.

ช่วงถาม-ตอบ

William Katz

So I was most intrigued by the slide in the deck that sort of spoke to some of the incremental growth opportunities. You sort of laid out the cross-margining on the treasury side, the prediction markets of compute futures, if you will. Could you maybe double-click into that a little bit and spend a little more time on the cross-margining opportunity set and maybe the prediction markets, those seem to be probably most near at hand in terms of the opportunity and how we might try and quantify that.

And then related to the prediction markets, there's been some pretty fast development of KPIs by CBOE and some others. I'm just sort of wondering if you could talk about your activity or interest level in getting involved with that as well.

Ian Lowitt

Yes, sure. Yes, I mean we're also sort of excited about those opportunities that we sort of highlight on that slide. In terms of the cross-margining product, I mean, I sort of think about this in 2 ways. I mean, one is just the cost of the fact that you're sort of getting really attractive clients onto your platform and you're doing it in a way that doesn't require you to provide any sort of subsidy of any kind. So they're actually excited to come on to your platform. And as we found, once somebody is on your platform, you're just in a different league. You're no longer part of the very large world that are trying to get access, you're actually part of the inside.

So that's probably the biggest value to us. Away from that, it feels like it's a few tens of millions of dollars of revenue associated with sort of the existing set of clients. So it's probably in the $15 million to $20 million run rate at the moment. What level it gets to, I don't know. At some point, we won't be the only person providing that. But like right now, we have an opportunity to bring people on and have them use our platform.

In terms of prediction markets, we only recently set up to clear Kalshi. Again, it's not so much the size of the revenue that it's contributing now. It's the fact that it's getting you into a really strong position with key prospects and that the people at those sort of prospect firms that are involved are very senior, often the principal owners of those funds. So that's very exciting to us. Again, very hard for me to assess what the revenue contribution will be from that activity itself, but the level of interest is extremely high. So that's sort of a positive.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Moley with Piper Sandler.

Patrick Moley

Maybe just following up on Bill's question, maybe digging more into the compute. I think last quarter when it came up, you guys said you hadn't looked into it too much, and it was a big part of the prepared remarks this quarter. So I guess it sounds like the opportunity moved up the priority list. Could you maybe just talk about what you're seeing, where that demand is coming from? Is it coming from hyperscalers that you already work with? Or is it in reaction to some of the exchange-driven product development that we've seen here recently?

Ian Lowitt

Yes, sure. So I think that it's sort of worth just sort of noting that, obviously, there's a huge amount of spend in this space. And there's actually a lot of hedging that's going on around a lot of these products, whether that's hedging our copper or that's hedging out some of the power requirements. So the fact is we are participating in some way just through the normal course of our business with regard to some of the people who are investing these massive sums in building up this infrastructure.

With regard to compute, I think that some of our sort of key partners are quite engaged in this and have a lot of interest. And as a result, we're being sort of consulted around this a fair amount in the course of last quarter. It's also apparent to me that if these products do take off in some sort of meaningful way, then it has the potential to take down some of the sort of noise that you see around some of the companies here. So I mean if you could actually sell some of your sort of production forward by way of example, then I think that takes some of the concerns away around the mismatch of timing between expense and revenue.

So I do think it's potentially quite important as a way to sort of stabilize these marketplaces. I have no view on when this gets sort of approved by the regulators, and it appears as though that's sort of been pushed off a little bit. So it doesn't appear that it's sort of imminent, but it is an area that I think we are engaged in, as you say, to a differentiated extent versus where we were a quarter ago. It's not a massive effort on our part, but it's one where the potential marketplace, as I think you've written about is very substantial. And if it is going to take off, players like Marex will have some part to play in their development.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Fannon with Jefferies.

Daniel Fannon

So Ian, I wanted to follow up on some of your comments around M&A. You talked about a very active pipeline. So I was hoping you could expand upon that. And then also, you've been quite active year-to-date. And maybe just update us on the integrations of the businesses. I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, Winterflood in terms of that happening. And then obviously, a couple of deals this quarter that were announced, maybe some updates in terms of contribution from that as well, please.

Ian Lowitt

Sure. Well, look, we're really, really sort of pleased and excited with how the acquisitions have gone. Obviously, we've talked a lot about the success we had with the Cowen acquisition, which was the basis of our very successful Prime business going further back. I mean, ED&F was a transformational deal sort of for us. We talked in the remarks about the success we've had with Hamilton Court. And again, I think it just is a demonstration of what can happen if you take sort of a franchise that's sort of small, having some set of challenges in the market, you may get part of Marex and all those sort of advantages they have sort of turn into a lot of growth.

In terms of what we've completed more recently, Winterflood, as you know, a sort of negative goodwill deal, and it's certainly sort of broadened our participation in equity market making. And I think we're pleased with both the integration as well as how that sort of broadened out that part of our franchise. Levmet has been really terrific. I mean you see it in the increase in Market Making revenues. Levmet really has been very impactful in the course of the quarter, and I have a lot of enthusiasm for what that's going to do to diversify the franchise and provide an additional meaningful sort of growth vector for us. And Webb has also had a terrific start.

So the transactions we've completed this year have been really -- they've worked well. They've integrated sort of per the plan, and we're sort of excited about their prospects. Obviously, we talked a bit about Bright Point, which, again, likely to close early part of next year. And again, creates a real vector of growth for us in China, which is a priority area for us. I think I'll actually just pass over to Paolo, who's here with us, who has information about sort of the rest of the pipeline.

Paolo Tonucci

Thanks, Ian. Yes, I mean, Dan, in terms of the immediate pipeline, we have, I would say, 4 transactions where we've agreed commercial terms there sort of in the size range that is sort of most common for us. So somewhere around the sort of revenue and contribution range that you're seeing for some of that Bright Point, which is Clearing business. I would say they lean towards Clearing and Prime in terms of services. And there also in terms of sort of geography, they're sort of -- the majority are either Asia or Latin America. So 4 transactions that I think are close to signing. And with those sort of characteristics, there's probably another 4 to 6 transactions that are a little further away.

But it's really encouraging the number of opportunities that we're being asked to review that were being shown the number of transactions we're participating in where it's a competitive process. So I mean, of the sort of those that are -- where commercial terms have not been agreed, again, there's a sort of very interesting mix that perhaps is a little bit more agency and execution focused. Prime, perhaps, elements of Prime, but it's surprised me just how many of these opportunities we're seeing. And I think in most cases, we're well positioned to be able to be competitive with these purchases.

Ian Lowitt

And I'll just sort of make the additional point, Dan, that we're sitting on a capital position where our RAC ratio is like 12.3%, 10% is investment grade. So we have close to $300 million of capital that we can deploy in a way and still remain at the investment-grade level.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Schmitt with William Blair.

Jeffrey Schmitt

The Prime services revenue continues to grow at a high rate. Where is that growth coming from? Is it mainly the on-balance sheet business now? Or is the Prime of Prime still growing at a high rate? And how much is the leveraged ETF component at this stage?

Ian Lowitt

Yes. I think that we're very pleased with how that business has performed in the -- through the course of the year. It does have sort of those 3 components that we described. So the on-balance sheet business, the Prime of Prime and the outsourced trading. I mean the on-balance sheet Prime is the largest component of it, but it's not the whole of the business. And I think that while we don't anticipate that it will continue to grow at the same pace, I think we remain quite optimistic about its future. Paolo, do you want to add anything to that?

Paolo Tonucci

Yes. Jeff, I mean, just to sort of reinforce that, it's more on balance sheet than it's Prime of Prime. I mean in terms of the contribution, I think the ability to generate high returns is much greater when it's on balance sheet, even if the number of clients that we're bringing on is sort of roughly equal in terms of those 2 offerings.

In terms of the sort of total balance sheet, sort of levered ETFs represent it's an important contribution. It's a relatively small amount. If we look at the sort of assets under management that we're supporting, but I mean, it's a much higher-margin business. Obviously, been a little bit softer with the sell-off in AI and AI-related stocks.

But balances have been very stable through -- in sort of totality, if you sort of take out some of this volatility, some of the sort of day-to-day volatility, they've been very consistent through the third quarter and even going into October, we've seen sort of levels of activity on that side of the business that is sort of comparable to the third quarter and sort of point in time, maybe a little bit softer towards the end of the period. But overall, it remains a stable balance and an important contributor.

And given that the growth is largely on balance sheet, I think Ian's point about the sort of pace at which we're going to grow, it's going to be a little bit more constrained than it has been because it uses capital. And so we are -- we have to sort of manage within our capital resources, and that will slightly, I think, constrain growth, and it will probably mean that it's more comparable to the growth of the firm as a whole rather than the sort of very fast growth that you've seen this year, we're not going to repeat our 100% growth, I wouldn't expect.

Ian Lowitt

We'll try.

Jeffrey Schmitt

Yes, that makes sense. And then NII was a little bit lighter than expected despite strong growth in client balances. Was that mainly related to higher funding costs and liquidity you're maintaining? I think you pointed that out or deploying more balance sheet into the prime business have an impact as well? Just trying to think how do we think about that trade-off?

Paolo Tonucci

So, look -- thanks, Jeff. I think NII came in broadly where we were expecting. So if we decouple the 2 parts, obviously, what drives our net interest income is the client balances. The client balances have grown very significantly this year. We got a little bit of a pickup in the quarter as interest -- as the average Fed funds increased. And then obviously, going against that is our interest expense which is from the Solutions structured notes and from the senior debt issuance.

Obviously, during the quarter, we were long liquidity again. Some of that liquidity, we made a conscious decision to deploy into our trading businesses. These trading businesses typically are self-funding, but it allows us to sort of shield against the negative carry. And obviously, we could pull that back if we needed to.

Ian Lowitt

Did that cover what you were looking for?

Jeffrey Schmitt

Yes, it is.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

Alexander Blostein

I wanted to go back to Slide 6. You provided some interesting color just around the number of clients with over $5 million. I think you spoke to some of these metrics in the past, but they continue to improve. So as you think about the incremental cross-selling opportunity, where -- which products and maybe which segments do you see the most compelling runway for you guys to further expand this? Just thinking through kind of on an organic basis, which one of these segments is likely to see the most uplift from this cross-selling momentum?

Ian Lowitt

Yes. Well, thanks, Alex. I think that as we sort of think about this, it's important to make a couple of points. One is that the clients that are now in the $5 million-plus bucket are clients who almost, without exception, are clients who are already clients of the firm. So we're not going out and finding $5 million clients. I think we've had one this year. But the vast preponderance is growing clients who are already at the firm. And we have 250 to 300 clients that are in that $1 million to $5 million bucket that are the targets that you're going to grow.

So part of what is driving this is clients who are already clients of the firm, and we're able to sort of expand the amount of business we do with them. As we look at the data, you don't see any one area that is sort of -- is a massive recipient of this. It really does have sort of flows in every direction. So execution clients help drive Clearing. Sometimes Clearing mandates drive execution. We have futures clients, futures Clearing clients that are now becoming Prime clients. Some of the Prime clients get introduced and become execution clients. Solutions clients actually are introduced to a range of the firm's capabilities, including sort of Clearing and others.

So as we look to say, if cross-selling is sort of the big driver of organic growth, does that favor one particular segment over another? I mean, the only segment which is sort of hard to see is sort of Market Making, and that's more because we actually don't attribute client revenues to Market Making. So I don't I don't see the cross-selling effort as being anything other than cross firm and contributing to all of the segments growing.

Alexander Blostein

Got it. That's helpful color. And then one more, if I could sneak one in. Encouraging to hear you guys talk about 10% to 20% growth next year despite obviously coming off a really robust year this year. One, could you comment on more near-term backdrop you're seeing in the fourth quarter. October is obviously behind us, and it's been a bumpy month. So curious how October is trending or how has it done so far?

And then as you look about the 10% to 20%, is it fair to assume that's largely organic growth that you commented on? Or are you including some of the deals that are kind of closer in the pipeline?

Ian Lowitt

Yes. Well, I mean, obviously, we've had a really, really strong 9 months, almost $500 million of sort of PBT. And as I think about the environment, what we described on the last earnings call was an environment in the third quarter that felt a lot like sort of the average of the first half. And I think that's how it's played out in quite an even way across the 3 months. And then as we look at October, we're seeing the same thing again. So we're seeing an October that looks like the average of the year from a market perspective and from a performance perspective.

And so I think that's all part of what's giving us sort of confidence around our ability to continue to perform strongly through the year. I mean, obviously, there's the expected slowdown around sort of Christmas holidays. But we do think that we'll continue to operate in and around the level we're currently operating. And then it reinforces our confidence going into next year. I mean we have that confidence in part because essentially all the businesses are exiting the year in a much stronger position than they entered the year. Some of that is as a result of the acquisitions that we've closed this year.

So Levmet and Webb, which sort of stage 2 closes, we will have a full year effect associated with them. I think that as we think about the growth next year and we think about the 10% to 20%, I mean, what we really are considering at least from a budgeting perspective is the full year effect of the acquisitions that we've completed this year and Bright Point, but we have not included explicitly the impact of other acquisitions that might close because we just don't know that they will.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Budish with Barclays.

Benjamin Budish

Maybe just following up on some of those last comments on inorganic growth. Curious if you could quantify how much Levmet contributed to the metals market making business in Q3. It does look like things have sort of structurally stepped up in the first half of the year. Obviously, Q3 even stronger. If you could unpack what's going on there, spread, volatility, volumes, inorganic, what do we need to know?

Ian Lowitt

That's quite a lot. Well, look, I think that -- Yes. As I think about sort of metals in particular, I think we have the strongest, if not one of the strongest sort of franchise. So when you're in an environment like the one we've been in, it's not surprising to me that sort of Simon and the team are delivering such strong results. And you certainly see that in this year.

Levmet is in PBT terms, sort of delivering actually together with sort of low teens of PBT in the quarter. So it's very -- it's a nice contributor, and it's showing sort of the power of that. So some of the increase that you're seeing in Q3 versus Q2 is as a result of Levmet. But a lot `of what you're seeing in terms of the improvement in '26 versus '25 is the improvement in the environment and the share gains we have in our metals franchise.

Benjamin Budish

Okay. Very helpful. Maybe a follow-up on some of the newer growth initiatives, thinking specifically about prediction markets and maybe compute futures. I guess, how do you think about the potential for volume? I guess for prediction markets, we sort of see existing volumes, compute futures, it's harder to say, but the potential for volume and capacity as these kind of products get off the ground.

And maybe if you could talk about prediction markets more specifically. How do we -- how should we think about market volumes relative to what institutions could handle? And maybe talk a bit about how you're thinking about managing risk there and sort of being able to effectively hedge given the level of liquidity in sort of -- in those markets, excluding imports?

Ian Lowitt

Well, I mean just for clarity, I mean, we're participating as a clearer here. And so we're not a Market Maker on sort of prediction markets. And so all we're doing is providing our clients access to those exchanges, but they want to do it in a clear format rather than having direct access themselves. And that is a trend that we think sort of persists for all of the -- I don't want to say all. For the sort of sophisticated institutional clients that we deal with, they see the protections that they have being a clear client versus having direct access as being extremely valuable. And so all of them are looking for access to those markets in that way.

The potential firepower of all of those guys is absolutely enormous, but how much they're actually going to transact in prediction markets and how much they're using it as a way to get sort of data signals that they then express in other markets, I have no view of. So for us, it's really it's responding to customer demand to have access. I think it will be decently profitable because the amount you make to sort of support that access is quite attractive relative to other things of comparable amounts of notional invested. But what the take-up is of that set of clients, we don't really have a particular view on. So it's primarily for me about getting access to those clients. And to the extent that it really takes off in some material way, then that's obviously just sort of added profitability for us.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Bill Katz with TD Cowen.

William Katz

So just a couple of cleanup items actually. When you talk about 2026, are you including the credit provision that you took early in the year as sort of the normal backdrop? Just want to make sure we're thinking about the right run rate here.

Secondly, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about, as you think about the deal pipeline, the timeline to which you think you might be able to close these. And you mentioned that they're running at the same size as one of the previous deals you announced. pre-synergies. So would you anticipate getting the same kind of synergies from those transactions?

And then the last question is a broader question. Sorry, for the questions. As you think about the business as you continue to scale, I was wondering if you could update your framework around the operating margin or the adjusted PBT margin potential.

Ian Lowitt

Okay. So when I sort of think about 2026, I think of it sort of on an as-reported basis. So in the first quarter, we got the benefit of sort of higher revenues in some of our businesses because of the higher volatility, and we had idiosyncratic sort of credit loss. So I think of the reference point is including the impact of the good and the bad, which includes the credit loss. So we're not backing out the credit losses. That's your modeling question when we talk about the base for 2026.

In terms of I think the second question was around synergies from acquisitions.

William Katz

Yes, synergies and timing.

Ian Lowitt

Do you want to take that, Paolo?

Paolo Tonucci

So I mean, of the 4 transactions that we talked about, Bill, as having agreed commercial terms, I think that the likelihood is that the majority will be signed in this quarter or in the first quarter. Closing those transactions is dependent in almost all cases on regulatory approval. So there's a bit more uncertainty there. And that does vary by region. So for example, in Latin America, that might take a little longer, or is likely to take longer. Typically, once we've signed, it's somewhere between 3 and 5 months to closing.

So in terms of the timing of the impact of these transactions, it's going to be the ones that we've talked about as being highly probable or sort of close to signing. You probably won't see much impact until the second half of next year.

Ian Lowitt

And then in terms of operating margins, I mean, I think that we talked about this. We don't manage to operating margins. So operating margins are sort of the outcome of a whole range of things. So operating margins are going to be a function of revenue mix and obviously, the shift of revenue into higher-margin activity helps. But it's also, in that sense, a function of the work that we're actually doing to improve margins even in lower-margin businesses. And those can be quite material as well.

It's a question of how much we invest. And as you've probably got a sense from our commentary, we are continuing to invest in new products, and we're excited about the prospects of those and feel that if we're going to deliver on our strategy, which is having enough structural growth to offset cyclical factors, then that's absolutely the right thing for us to be doing, but that obviously impacts margins. As we grow, we get some scale effects, both in terms of the impact on support and control as well as on our fixed cost base.

And I think all of those things sort of talk to gradually improving margins. We've talked about how we think we could -- previously, we talked about how we thought we could get to the mid-20s. And obviously, this year, we've taken a nice step in that direction. We've sort of gone from 21% to 24%. And we also believe, as we've spent more time thinking about it and thought about the role that technology is going to play in raising productivity, the potential to improve controls, but also output through AI. I think that's also sort of margin enhancing.

So we thought that we could get to 30%. And as we're getting closer to 30%, I think we'll reassess and say what our next view is of what we can actually generate. But broadly, we see a series of trends, all of which should be increasing margins, but in a probably slower -- at a slower pace than we saw this year just because this year, we're just seeing so much impact because the revenue growth is so high.

Paolo Tonucci

And sorry, Bill, just to go back to your question just on the synergy opportunities. I mean, I would say that given that these businesses that we're looking to acquire are in that Clearing and Prime space, it's reasonable to assume that the same type of revenue synergies we expect from the announced transaction from Bright Point and BPI, you'd see in these other transactions. We very much expect that moving these businesses onto our platform is revenue -- significantly revenue accretive.

And just sort of make that point, I mean, we've really -- we've seen that this year with FX where revenues are sort of close to triple the run rate that we saw pre-acquisition. That's only been closed for less than 18 months. And it's an area where we continue to invest. We are expecting to have a payments capability live towards the end of this quarter, certainly by the first quarter. And I think that sort of enhances that offering as well as giving us another sort of organic growth stream.

Ian Lowitt

So we answer your question, Bill?

William Katz

Absolutely.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Allen with KBW.

Christopher Allen

Just kind of following up on the comment just in terms of on FX, the revenue tripled. I'm just trying to think about the deals that you've done, which ones are at potentially at full capacity or which ones there's significant room for expansion, either by injecting more capital, cross-selling to your customer base. Hamilton Court, obviously, seems like it's reaching its potential. I'm just wondering what other ones have a clear path to growth from here?

Ian Lowitt

I think that we've been very pleasantly surprised by the opportunity that FX represents. And so while Hamilton Court, I think, has been a great success for us. I think that we certainly believe that we can build an even bigger business on that business model, expanding sort of geographically and making ongoing investments. So we certainly don't think that sort of hit its maximum. I mean I'm personally extremely excited about sort of the opportunity that Levmet represents because it's essentially sort of magnifying some of the strengths we have in our metals franchise by giving us opportunity to extend out into some physical products and enhance some of the things that we were doing for clients before.

So I actually think that, that could be quite substantial sort of for us. And then I think, obviously, we can't speak to the acquisitions that Paolo sort of referenced, but those will also help advance the franchise. And then Bright Point, if we can utilize all the sort of connectivity that Kenny and the team at Bright Point have into China to sort of expand our engagement with that absolutely huge market, then that in and of itself could be a massive accelerant for the firm.

So we're always sort of conservative in what we say what we're going to be able to deliver with regard to those acquisitions. But notwithstanding that, they do when sort of made a part of our franchise, represent sort of growth vectors that in the past have proven to be very substantial. And there's nothing in sort of the existing crop that suggests that they'll be different in time and that they won't represent the same sort of growth opportunity.

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of Ben Budish with Barclays.

Benjamin Budish

Just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the Solutions business. It looks like the structured notes balance actually stepped up quite a bit quarter-over-quarter, but the revenues have been trending down off a very strong Q1. I understand things can be lumpy, and I think you talked a bit about some of that structured issuance flows through interest expense. But if you could help us understand what exactly is going on in there? Is there anything timing related? And how do we think about the relationship between either headcount or balances to revenues going forward?

Ian Lowitt

Sure. Look, I think that the broad backdrop there is the business is doing really well. It's grown very substantially 9 months to 9 months and even if you look at the third quarter to third quarter, it's actually up sort of whatever it is, 28%, 30%. So the business is doing extremely well. The hedging solution business is continue to grow in a very steady way. And the financial product business has more variability to it. I mean what I actually take away from it is really that the first half was what was the very unusual revenue opportunity for that business and that's associated with very high levels of volatility that we saw in the first half.

And as one thinks about what we're trying to do as a firm, which is build a portfolio of businesses that are going to perform well through a bunch of different market environments, then you want some businesses that are going to do really well in some of those environments like we saw in the first half and Solutions certainly did that and recognize that in environments that are a little less supportive, they're not going to do quite as well. And I think that's really the only sort of takeaway sort of for this.

I think the volatility in equities was down. The rate of change in volatility was lower, and that's also an important input for that business. There were sort of seasonal effects in August. But I think that's the extent of what one should take away from these numbers, and it remains a business that we have a lot of confidence in, and I think it will continue to grow and thrive.

All right. Well, thanks for all the questions. As always, a good opportunity for us to provide additional color on what's going on inside the firm. We're obviously very pleased with the quarter and being able to deliver yet another record and also to share just how positive and confident we are about the rest of this year and our prospects for next year. So thanks, everybody.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.