Teleconferência de Resultados do 3T26 da UPS: Projeções Mais Elevadas com Melhora nas Margens nos EUA

Principais Pontos

• A UPS reportou receita consolidada de US$ 22,9 bilhões no 3º trimestre de 2026, alta de 6,7% na comparação anual, com crescimento em todos os três segmentos. O lucro operacional ajustado foi de US$ 2,1 bilhões, a margem operacional foi de 9,0% e o LPA diluído foi de US$ 1,69.
• A receita doméstica nos EUA aumentou 4,5%, apesar de uma queda de 3,3% no volume diário médio, refletindo a redução planejada no volume da Amazon. A receita por pacote subiu 6,1%, sustentando um aumento de 14,3% no lucro operacional e uma expansão de margem de 60 pontos-base.
• O lucro operacional internacional voltou a crescer na comparação anual pela primeira vez em seis trimestres. A receita aumentou 7,1%, enquanto a margem operacional atingiu 14,9%, com a qualidade da receita e o mix geográfico compensando uma queda de 8,7% no volume.
• O volume diário médio de PMEs cresceu 3,7% e atingiu o recorde de 35,1% do volume nos EUA. A receita do setor de saúde superou US$ 3 bilhões pelo terceiro trimestre consecutivo, com crescimento em todos os segmentos.
• A administração elevou sua projeção para o ano completo de 2026 para aproximadamente US$ 92,6 bilhões em receita, US$ 8,75 bilhões em lucro operacional e US$ 7,28 em LPA diluído. O fluxo de caixa livre agora é projetado em aproximadamente US$ 6,1 bilhões.
• A UPS prevê receita no 4º trimestre de aproximadamente US$ 25,7 bilhões e lucro operacional de aproximadamente US$ 3,3 bilhões. A administração espera que o volume das festas de fim de ano suba cerca de 25% em relação ao 3º trimestre, embora o volume nos EUA deva permanecer menor na comparação anual devido à redução da Amazon.

Principais Dados Financeiros

A UPS declarou que seus resultados GAAP no 3º trimestre incluíram um encargo líquido de US$ 279 milhões, ou US$ 0,32 por ação diluída. Isso incluiu US$ 130 milhões em custos pós-impostos da estratégia de transformação e uma perda por redução ao valor recuperável (impairment) do goodwill de US$ 182 milhões em Soluções para a Cadeia de Suprimentos, parcialmente compensados por um ganho de US$ 33 milhões com a venda de ativos MD-11.

Desempenho Operacional e dos Negócios

Doméstico nos EUA

O volume diário médio total nos EUA caiu 3,3%, principalmente devido à redução planejada da UPS nos negócios com a Amazon. Excluindo esse efeito, o volume de PMEs e de grandes empresas aumentou mais de 200.000 pacotes por dia. O volume terrestre desses clientes subiu 2,1%, enquanto o volume aéreo permaneceu estável.

A receita por pacote aumentou 6,1%. Cerca de metade da melhoria veio das tarifas-base e do mix de clientes, com tarifas de combustível mais altas representando o restante. As despesas totais subiram 3,9%, principalmente devido a combustível e transporte contratado.

O crescimento da receita por pacote superou o crescimento do custo por pacote em 60 pontos-base. A administração atribuiu o spread positivo à melhor qualidade da receita, ao volume premium e à produtividade gerada pela reconfiguração da rede.

Internacional

O volume diário médio internacional caiu 8,7%, principalmente por conta de tensões geopolíticas, mas as tendências melhoraram ao longo do trimestre. O volume de entrada nos EUA voltou a crescer na comparação anual em setembro, enquanto o volume de exportação entre países da Ásia aumentou 8,4%, no terceiro trimestre consecutivo de alta.

A receita por pacote subiu 15%, com cerca de metade desse aumento proveniente de tarifas de combustível. A administração afirmou que as sobretaxas de combustível compensaram as despesas maiores de combustível e ajudaram a preservar o lucro operacional.

Soluções para a Cadeia de Suprimentos e Verticais Premium

A receita de agenciamento de frete (forwarding) aumentou 17,5%, impulsionada por tarifas mais altas de frete aéreo e marítimo internacional, juntamente com o crescimento dos embarques marítimos. A receita de logística subiu 17,2%, sustentada pela logística de saúde e parcialmente compensada pela menor receita do Mail Innovations.

Roadie e Happy Returns ajudaram a receita de negócios digitais a crescer quase 50%. O volume da Happy Returns deve mais do que triplicar até o final de 2026 em comparação ao período de sua aquisição em 2023.

A receita do setor de saúde superou US$ 3 bilhões pelo terceiro trimestre consecutivo. A administração também destacou a demanda de clientes dos setores de alta tecnologia, manufatura e automotivo. O negócio de pequenos volumes de alta tecnologia nos EUA cresceu 30% a partir de uma base menor, enquanto a UPS estimou uma oportunidade logística de US$ 15 bilhões associada a data centers.

Eficiência da Rede

A UPS concluiu a fase final de seu programa Driver Choice, com aproximadamente 1.500 participantes saindo durante o 3º trimestre. A administração também afirmou que continua confortável com seu objetivo de economia de custos de US$ 3 bilhões.

Espera-se que quase 70% dos pacotes passem por processos automatizados durante o período de festas. A UPS prevê ter entregue mais de 4 bilhões de pacotes com tecnologia RFID até o final do ano. A etiquetagem com RFID está em operação em 315 instalações de clientes e cobre cerca de 3 milhões de pacotes por dia, com a administração buscando a meta de 6 milhões por dia em 2027.

O novo modelo operacional global coloca os negócios nos EUA, as operações internacionais e de cadeia de suprimentos, e a rede global de transporte sob lideranças dedicadas. A administração espera que essa estrutura padronize os processos operacionais, melhore a eficiência e apoie o crescimento premium.

Projeções da Administração (Guidance)

Para o 4º trimestre, a administração espera que a receita doméstica nos EUA suba aproximadamente 3%, com uma margem operacional de cerca de 10,5%. A receita internacional deve aumentar aproximadamente 7%, com uma margem próxima a 20%. A receita de Soluções para a Cadeia de Suprimentos deve crescer quase 13%, com uma margem de aproximadamente 12,2%.

A administração espera que os cerca de 100 clientes nos EUA responsáveis pela maior parte do pico festivo impulsionem um aumento sequencial de 25% no volume diário médio em relação ao 3º trimestre. No entanto, o volume total nos EUA deve permanecer menor na comparação anual devido à redução da Amazon.

Riscos e Pontos de Atenção

• As reduções no volume da Amazon continuarão afetando as comparações de volume divulgadas. A administração espera que a comparação anual permaneça como um vento contrário até o segundo semestre de 2027, embora o volume principal (core) tenha crescido quase 2% no 3º trimestre de 2026.
• O volume internacional permanece exposto a tensões geopolíticas e mudanças nas políticas comerciais. A administração citou a remoção da isenção de minimis na Europa como causa para a forte queda registrada em julho.
• A perspectiva de margem internacional no 4T inclui o crescimento sazonal do volume e sobretaxas de demanda; portanto, a margem projetada de 20% não deve ser tratada como uma taxa de execução (run rate) constante. A administração descreveu a faixa de 15% a 19% como apropriada à medida que as rotas comerciais se estabilizarem.
• A execução no período de festas continua sendo importante. A UPS planeja adicionar capacidade variável onde necessário, mas espera menos aluguéis de veículos, arrendamentos de aeronaves e contratações sazonais devido à automação e ao nível mais baixo de volume menos lucrativo.
• O financiamento de pensões pode afetar o fluxo de caixa de 2027. A administração afirmou que o término das exigências de caixa do programa Driver Choice deve melhorar o fluxo de caixa livre, mas uma abordagem diferente para o financiamento de pensões pode compensar o benefício de US$ 450 milhões associado à contribuição em títulos de 2026.
• O contrato da UPS com o sindicato Teamsters vence em 1º de agosto de 2028. A administração declarou que pretende manter um relacionamento construtivo e aplicar as lições aprendidas na negociação de 2023.

Destaques das Perguntas e Respostas dos Analistas

Fluxo de caixa livre e o dividendo

A administração espera que o fluxo de caixa livre continue melhorando em 2027 à medida que os requisitos de caixa do Driver Choice se encerrarem e as margens domésticas nos EUA se recuperem. Nenhuma projeção oficial para 2027 foi fornecida. A CEO Carol Tomé afirmou que o dividendo está "seguro e garantido".

Expansão de margem

A UPS espera uma melhoria anual constante da margem, em vez de uma mudança brusca e rápida. A administração afirmou que um spread positivo de 50 a 100 pontos-base entre o crescimento da receita por pacote e do custo por pacote deve sustentar uma expansão adicional. A empresa não espera que a margem doméstica nos EUA passe de cerca de 7,5% para 10% em um único ano.

Precificação e mix de volume

A administração descreveu o ambiente de preços como construtivo e espera que os preços-base e o mix contribuam com aproximadamente 200 a 300 pontos-base ao longo do tempo. O benefício da redução do volume da Amazon deve moderar, mas prevê-se que o crescimento contínuo nos produtos e segmentos de clientes premium sustente o mix.

Ambiente competitivo

A UPS declarou que não observou um impacto mensurável ou relevante nos negócios decorrente do Amazon Shipping após seu anúncio anterior. A administração destacou as diferenças entre as redes, incluindo as capacidades de logística reversa e as garantias do serviço terrestre da UPS, ao mesmo tempo em que reconheceu a posição da Amazon como cliente, fornecedora e concorrente.

Vetores de crescimento de longo prazo

A administração identificou saúde, alta tecnologia, data centers, setor automotivo e PMEs como áreas de crescimento prioritárias. A logística para produtos de saúde de alta complexidade é projetada pela administração para crescer cerca de 6% ao ano. A UPS também espera que sua rede integrada, abrangendo transporte, agenciamento de frete, desembaraço aduaneiro e logística, apoie o crescimento em mercados B2B premium.

Transcrição Completa da Teleconferência de Resultados

Transcrição completa da teleconferência de resultados

Comentários da administração

Operator

Good morning. My name is Matthew, and I'll be your facilitator today. I'd like to welcome everyone to the UPS Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. P.J. Guido, Investor Relations Officer. Sir, the floor is yours.

PJ Guido

Good morning, and welcome to the UPS Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Carol Tome, our CEO; Brian Dykes, our CFO; and a few additional members of our executive leadership team.

Before we begin, I want to remind you that some of the comments we'll make today are forward-looking statements and address our expectations for the future performance or operating results of our company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which are described in our 2025 Form 10-K and other reports we file with or furnished to the Securities and Exchange Commission. These reports, when filed, are available on the UPS Investor Relations website and from the SEC. Unless stated otherwise, our discussion refers to adjusted results. For the third quarter of 2026, a GAAP results include a net charge of $279 million or $0.32 per diluted share, comprised of after-tax transformation strategy cost of $130 million as well as a $182 million charge associated with a goodwill impairment in Supply Chain Solutions, partially offset by a gain on sale of MD-11 assets of $33 million.

A reconciliation of non-GAAP adjusted amounts to GAAP financial results is available in today's webcast materials. These materials are also available on the UPS Investor Relations website. Following our prepared remarks, we will take questions from those joining us via the teleconference.

[Operator Instructions]

And now I'll turn the call over to Carol.

Carol Tomé

Thank you, P.J., and good morning. I'd like to begin by celebrating some important milestones that demonstrate the strength of our global integrated network. This year, UPS celebrates 50 years in Europe, 40 years at our Cologne air hub in Germany, 35 years in Mexico, and 25 years of flying into China. These milestones represent decades of service, commitment and progress. to UPSers across these markets and around the world, thank you for delivering for our customers, strengthening our company and moving UPS forward every day.

Moving to our results. The third quarter marked another quarter of strong performance that exceeded our expectations. Revenue grew across all 3 segments driving consolidated revenue to $22.9 billion, up 6.7% from last year. Consolidated operating profit was $2.1 billion. The U.S. Domestic segment delivered its second consecutive quarter of strong year-over-year operating profit growth, increasing over 14% versus the third quarter of last year. In the U.S., we are now past the inflection point on several key elements of our strategy with clear evidence in our volume, operating profit and operating margin performance. Average daily volume from SMB and enterprise customers increased 1.8% year-over-year. And for the second consecutive quarter, revenue per piece growth outpaced cost per piece growth contributing to 60 basis points of year-over-year operating margin expansion in the third quarter.

In international, we returned to year-over-year operating profit growth for the first time since the 2025 U.S. trade policy changes. The momentum we saw in the second quarter across the China to U.S. and Asia to Asia trade lanes continued in the third quarter, supported by investments we've made across the region. In addition, U.S. inbound volume rebounded in September, further strengthening our third quarter performance. And in Supply Chain Solutions, both forwarding and logistics grew revenue year-over-year, driven by demand from customers and high-tech, health care, manufacturing and automotive. Taken together, these results show that our strategy is working. We're driving more premium growth, improving revenue quality and mix and creating greater operating leverage through a more efficient network. All of this is strengthening the underlying performance of our business.

As many of you saw, in September, we announced a new global operating model. Under our new model, Matt Guffey leads our U.S. domestic businesses, including small package and growth enablers like the UPS store, UPS Capital, Roadie, Happy Returns and mail innovations. [Alfredo Ramos ] is responsible for international small package, global health care and our forwarding and logistics business. And Nando Cesarone drives our global network, leading global air network automation and surface transportation operations that power our integrated network. This new model enables UPS to serve customers with greater consistency, agility and scale. Under this approach, UPS is standardizing critical operational processes across geographies and while maintaining the flexibility necessary to meet the unique needs of local markets. We believe this structure will unlock new synergies across our businesses and accelerate premium growth.

A good example of this alignment can be seen in the UPS store, Happy Returns and UPS capital. Approximately 10% of total U.S. small package volume originates through the UPS store network and that volume has grown by roughly 6% annually since 2024. Through Happy Returns, SMB and enterprise customers can offer consumers a convenient no box, no label returns experience. And every Happy Returns package flows through the UPS small package network. By the end of this year, Happy Returns volume is expected to have more than tripled since we acquired them in 2023. UPS Capital extends our value proposition beyond transportation. Through solutions like UPS Secure Commerce, we use data and AI to help customers reduce fraud, protect high-value shipments and make smarter, more informed supply chain decisions. Outside the U.S., we're focused on helping customers solve increasingly complex global supply chain needs while expanding our premium B2B business.

On October 15, we officially opened our new air hub at Clark International Airport in the Philippines, improving transit times across more than 1,100 trade lanes and enabling next business day connectivity between key markets in Asia Pacific, India, Europe and the United States. This investment strengthens our ability to serve customers in premium global industries such as manufacturing, high tech and health care. In Europe, we recently added a 129,000 square-foot multifunctional facility to our network. Strategically located in Amsterdam, the facility brings freight forwarding, customs brokerage and health care cold chain capabilities together under roof. We designed this facility to support our high-value B2B customers.

Before we turn to peak, let me highlight our third quarter performance in 2 important growth areas, health care and SMBs. First, health care revenue exceeded $3 billion for the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year growth in every segment. Second, SMBs, including platforms represented 35.1% of total U.S. volume in the third quarter, up approximately 240 basis points from last year. In the U.S., SMB average daily volume grew 3.7% year-over-year, driven by continued momentum in our digital access program, known as DAP. And global DAP revenue reached $1.4 billion. Importantly, the debt mix continued to shift toward more premium volume. For the first time, air services and ground commercial represented nearly 30% of total DAP volume in the third quarter.

Turning to the holiday season. U.S. consumers remain resilient, and the outlook for holiday demand is strong. Industry forecasts for holiday online retail sales project an average increase of approximately 9% compared to last year. A little over 100 U.S. customers account for approximately 80% of our peak surge. And based on their forecast, we expect average daily volume to increase approximately 25% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. That sequential increase is consistent with last year. However, fourth quarter U.S. average daily volume is expected to be lower year-over-year, reflecting the deliberate actions we took earlier in the year to reduce Amazon volume. As we head into peak, our network is more automated, more efficient and better positioned than ever to handle the holiday surge. We'll add variable capacity where needed. But the investments we've made in our network enable us to operate with fewer vehicle rentals and aircraft leases and nearly 70% of all packages will flow through an automated process.

As we've discussed, we are moving from a scanning to a sensing network. Our RFID capabilities are increasing productivity with little to no scanning while improving package visibility and on-time delivery. By the end of the year, we expect to have delivered more than 4 billion RFID-enabled packages. Beyond being ready operationally, we're also finding new ways to make the holiday experience better for our customers. We recently launched protected delivery, which adds an extra layer of security for high-value shipments by requiring a pin before the package is released. And we're adding a little holiday spirit with special holiday themed express packaging. In short, we are ready for peak. And while on-time service is important to every day of the year, it matters even more during peak when our customers are counting on us to deliver for their customers.

We've been the industry leader in on-time service during peak for the past 8 years. And with our network, our know-how and the commitment of UPSers, we're ready to make it 9. As I wrap up, let me share our updated outlook for the year. We expect the momentum we've built to continue, giving us the confidence to raise our full year outlook. For the full year 2026, we now expect consolidated revenue of approximately $92.6 billion and consolidated operating profit of approximately $8.75 billion. Brian will provide more details on our outlook in a moment.

Let me close with this. We'll change takes courage. It takes courage to pivot when the path you've been on is familiar. It takes courage to make difficult choices when you know there will be pain along the way, and it takes conviction to stay the course before the results are fully visible. We've experienced all of that. But now we're seeing the strategy come to life. We're seeing the proof points in our business, and we're proving something we believed in from the beginning, better, is truly better than bigger. We still have work to do, but we've moved through an important inflection point. We know where we're going. We have momentum behind us, and I couldn't be more confident in the future we're building for UPS.

Our performance over the last 2 quarters demonstrates that our premium growth strategy is working, positioning us to return to revenue, operating profit and EPS growth for the full year 2026. With momentum building, we expect continued progress ahead. So with that, thank you for listening. And now I'll turn the call over to Brian.

Brian Dykes

Thank you, Carol, and good morning, everyone. This morning, I'll cover 2 areas. Starting with our third quarter results, then I'll review our outlook for the full year, including capital allocation and our expectations for the fourth quarter. Our results in the third quarter demonstrate that our strategy is translating into stronger financial performance by growing premium volume, improving revenue quality and running a more efficient network, we are strengthening the underlying performance of the business.

In the quarter, revenue growth was strong in all 3 segments, and we delivered operating profit and margin expansion in our small package businesses. In the third quarter, consolidated revenue was $22.9 billion, an increase of 6.7%, and operating profit was $2.1 billion. Consolidated operating margin was 9% and diluted earnings per share were $1.69. Our third quarter results included gains from asset sales, partially offset by related expenses. On a net basis, these items were not a significant driver of the outperformance versus our expectations. Looking at the segments. In the U.S., our strategy is delivering results. We grew premium volume, improved revenue quality and converted that growth in the higher operating profit and expanded operating margin.

For the quarter, year-over-year average daily volume growth from SMB and Enterprise customers exceeded our expectations, increasing by more than 200,000 pieces per day. When looking at ground, SMB and enterprise customers increased ground ADV by 2.1% versus the third quarter of last year, and air average daily volume from SMB and enterprise customers was flat year-over-year. Looking at total ADV in the U.S., it was down 3.3% versus the third quarter of last year, reflecting the deliberate actions we took earlier in the year to reduce Amazon volume. Demand from SMB customers was strong with average daily volume up 3.7% year-over-year, with growth coming from nearly all industries, including health care. And in the quarter, SMBs represented a record of 35.1% of total U.S. volume.

Our B2B customer mix is becoming more diversified with health care, high-tech, manufacturing and automotive representing a larger share of total U.S. volume. This is a deliberate shift we have been working toward. More premium volume from industries and customers that deliver better overall economics. Moving to revenue. In the third quarter, U.S. domestic generated $14.9 billion in revenue, an increase of 4.5% year-over-year, overcoming the 3.3% decline in average daily volume. Revenue per piece increased 6.1% compared to the third quarter of last year with about half the growth coming from base rates and customer mix improvements, with higher fuel rates contributing to the rest.

Turning to costs. In the third quarter, total expense in U.S. domestic increased 3.9% versus the third quarter of last year, with the increase primarily coming from fuel and purchase transportation. Also in the third quarter, we wrapped up the final phase of the Driver Choice program with approximately 1,500 participants exiting the company, mostly at the end of the quarter. In the third quarter, the growth in revenue per piece was 60 basis points higher than the growth in cost per piece, continuing the positive spread between the 2 and reflecting our focus on revenue quality and productivity delivered by our network reconfiguration efforts. The U.S. Domestic segment delivered over $1 billion in operating profit, a 14.3% increase from last year. Operating margin was 7%, an increase of 60 basis points compared to the third quarter of last year.

Moving to our International segment. In the third quarter, International delivered strong revenue growth and returned to year-over-year operating profit growth for the first time in 6 quarters. While total international average daily volume declined 8.7% compared to the third quarter of last year, primarily due to geopolitical tensions. Our improved financial results were driven by strong revenue quality and a favorable geographic mix. Volume trends strengthened as the quarter progressed, with the year-over-year rate of decline improving each month and September volume finishing well above July levels. Inbound U.S. volume, which represents many of our most profitable trade lanes, returned to year-over-year growth in September. And Asia to Asia export volume increased for the third consecutive quarter, up 8.4% in the third quarter compared to last year.

International generated $5 billion in revenue, an increase of 7.1% year-over-year. Revenue growth was driven by a 15% year-over-year increase in revenue per piece with around half of the increase coming from fuel rates. Our fuel surcharges helped to offset higher fuel expense in the quarter and preserve operating profit. Operating profit in the International segment was $746 million, an increase of $55 million year-over-year. International operating margin in the third quarter was well above our expectations at 14.9% and slightly above the third quarter of last year. Now moving to SCS. Supply Chain Solutions delivered strong revenue growth year-over-year, driven by a focus on premium volume from high-tech, health care, manufacturing and automotive customers. Total Supply Chain Solutions revenue was $3 billion, an increase of $459 million versus last year.

Forwarding revenue increased 17.5% year-over-year driven by higher rates in international air freight and ocean freight. And Ocean also grew shipments in the quarter. Logistics revenue increased 17.2% year-over-year, driven by strong growth in healthcare logistics partially offset by a decline in our Mail Innovations business. MUPS Digital, which includes Roadie and Happy Returns, delivered revenue growth of nearly 50% compared to the third quarter of 2025. In the third quarter, Supply Chain Solutions generated an operating profit of $274 million and operating margin was 9.2%. As a reminder, SES' third quarter 2025 results included a $330 million gain from a sale leaseback transaction.

Lastly, looking at cash and liquidity. We Year-to-date, we've generated $6 billion in cash from operations and free cash flow of $4.2 billion, which includes onetime payments for the Driver Choice program. We ended the third quarter with $6.8 billion in cash on the balance sheet and no outstanding commercial paper. And so far this year, UPS has paid $4.1 billion in dividends. In the third quarter, we successfully issued $1.3 billion in debt to refinance maturity, and to complete a pension contribution of $450 million of UPS bonds to our pension asset portfolio. The contribution of UPS bonds to the pension further strengthened the plan's funded status and supported our pension investment strategy of reducing volatility.

Moving to our 2026 financial outlook. At the beginning of the year, we laid out a plan that contemplated a meaningfully stronger second half, including a fourth quarter that targeted revenue and operating profit growth, operating margin expansion and EPS growth. Our third quarter performance exceeded our expectations and gives us greater confidence in the trajectory we established at the start of the year. As a result, we are raising our fourth quarter revenue and operating profit expectations and lifting our full year outlook. Starting with full year 2026, we now expect consolidated revenue of approximately $92.6 billion and consolidated operating profit of approximately $8.75 billion. This implies full year diluted earnings per share of approximately $7.28.

And for the fourth quarter, we now expect consolidated revenue of approximately $25.7 billion, up approximately 5% year-over-year and consolidated operating profit of approximately $3.3 billion. Now let's look at our expectations for the segments in the fourth quarter. Starting with U.S. domestic. We expect revenue to be up approximately 3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, driven by revenue per piece and premium volume growth. We expect an operating margin of approximately 10.5%. In terms of peak, the market outlook for strong holiday demand that Carol discussed, combined with the forecast we have from our largest customers, gives us confidence in a strong peak season.

We expect momentum we've seen with SMB and enterprise customers to continue as seasonal volumes ramp up in line with last year. Peak volumes will move through our most automated, efficient and flexible network in history. And while we are ready for the holiday surge, what matters most is the service we deliver. We've been the industry leader in on-time service during peak for the past 8 years, and we intend to make it 9.

Turning to international in the fourth quarter. We expect a similar macro environment to the third quarter and we expect the strong inbound U.S. volume we saw in September to continue. With that backdrop, we expect fourth quarter revenue in international to be up approximately 7% and operating margin of approximately 20%. And in Supply Chain Solutions, in the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to be up nearly 13% and operating margin to be approximately 12.2%.

Lastly, for modeling purposes, in total, below the line in the fourth quarter, we expect approximately $190 million in expense, and we expect the tax rate to be approximately 23% in the fourth quarter. Turning to our expectations for cash in the balance sheet. For the full year 2026, we now expect free cash flow to be approximately $6.1 billion, which includes payments made for the Driver Choice program. Our free cash flow expectation is higher than we originally anticipated due to the outperformance of the business and the pension contribution we made using UPS bonds. Capital expenditures are still expected to be around $3 billion. We are still planning to pay out around $5.4 billion in dividends in 2026, subject to port approval, and we expect the tax rate for the full year to be approximately 23%.

As we close out 2026, our business is performing the way we intended to perform, grow premium volume, operate a more automated integrated network and drive operating profit growth. The momentum we're building across the business positions us to deliver a strong fourth quarter and an industry-leading peak. Looking ahead to 2027, the new global operating model Carol discussed will help us move faster unlock additional efficiencies and more fully leverage the strength of the UPS network to support profitable growth over the long term. With that, operator, please open the lines for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question is coming from Ari Rosa from Citigroup.

Perguntas e respostas

Ariel Rosa

Congratulations on some strong results here. Brian, I wanted to ask you about free cash flow expectations. I love seeing the improvement in the guide on free cash flow. If we think about the Driver Choice program and take those costs out, it would imply a big step up or maybe not big, but solid step-up in free cash flow for 2027, recognizing you guys haven't given guidance yet for the year ahead. Just give some indication on kind of how you're thinking about what free cash flow could look like or what the magnitude of that step-up could look like for 2027 and just safety around the dividend or coverage of the dividend?

Brian Dykes

Sure, Ari. Thank you for the question. Yes, so we did step up free cash flow. Remember, part of that is the business performance, which a business is performing better than our initial expectations. Part of it is also the pension contribution in the form of bonds rather than cash which is good for our pension plan. It was also very good for our issuance. We had a very successful issuance in the quarter.

As you think about how that rolls into next year, you're absolutely right. The Driver Choice cash requirement goes away, which will drive an improvement in free cash flow. Depending on how we fund the pension, we may then have to offset the $450 million in there. And then obviously, look, we've always talked about the fundamental driver of free cash flow is getting the domestic margin start moving in the right direction. I think we're showing the structural changes that we're putting in place are getting us there. That's helping to drive a free cash flow improvement in the second half and will help us as we go into 2027, where we expect free cash flow continue to move up and improve our dividend coverage as we grow back into the dividend payout ratio that we've talked about for a long time.

Carol Tomé

So clearly Ari, our dividend is safe and secure.

Ariel Rosa

Very helpful. Can you remind us quickly what the magnitude of the Driver Choice spend is there for this year?

Brian Dykes

$4 billion this year.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Chris Wetherbee from Wells Fargo.

Christian Wetherbee

Maybe kind of a big picture question, Carol, you noted kind of getting through some of the big initiatives that you've been working on. And then maybe getting to a sort of better opportunity for consistent growth over the longer term. I guess if we could zoom out, I know it's a little early to talk about '27, but what do you see as the growth algorithm for UPS as we go forward? Now that the glide down is done, you're focusing on B2B, pricing is good. Kind of how do we think about all of that? And what does it mean for earnings growth over the long term?

Carol Tomé

Let's start with the addressable market. As we think about our addressable market, we actually think about it from manufacturing floor to the front door because we serve that entire supply chain as One UPS and if you then roll that up to what we think is addressable, it's about $922 billion. Now clearly, we're focused on the premium side of that addressable market. So around the world, the premium opportunity is about $535 million. And then here in the United States, if we just want to narrow it down to the premium opportunity here in the United States, it's about $150 billion.

So you can see there's a lot of market for us to grow into. And the mathematical equation of what this means for our earnings is that we expect volume growth. We expect our RPP to grow faster than our cost per piece so that we have margin expansion. We expect that not only in the United States, but we expect that in our international small package business as well. Then in Supply Chain Solutions in our forwarding business, as you saw, we had good growth, really solid growth in the third quarter with our forwarding business up 17%. If you look at the drivers of that, it was really in the premium space.

Health care as well as high tech. And with the explosion of data center growth here in our country, the logistics opportunities are enormous. In fact, we estimate the logistics opportunities associated with data centers alone, is $15 billion. And to bring that real for the United States. In the third quarter, our high-tech small package business grew 30% year-on-year. Now on a small base, the 30% year-on-year. So the mathematical equation is set for us to continue to drive earnings. We're not going to give guidance today. We're going to do that at the end of the fourth quarter, like we always do. But the mathematical equation, given the addressable market we have, gives us really a solid foundation to grow earnings.

And I should add one more thing. We're doing it on a network that is so much more efficient than it was. And with our new global operating model, we're going to make it even more efficient.

Operator

Your next question is coming from David Vernon from Bernstein.

David Vernon

So Brian, I wanted to maybe dig in a little bit on the carryover from the cost programs and efficiency efforts. And Carol, I'd love to hear your thoughts here, too. But if we're looking at sort of second half margins, around 8.9%. I think that, that should be a base for 2027. I'm just wondering, as you think about the follow-through from all the cost actions you've taken, how does that set you up for incremental margins looking forward? I'm just trying to get a sense for -- I'm trying to see if you can help us put some guardrails around what the incremental profit outlook should look after all this noise for Amazon is behind us.

Brian Dykes

Yes. So Dave, so I absolutely believe that the changes that we're making are driving durable margin improvement here, these are structural, right? And I start with the volume base. In the third quarter, we -- our core volume, the volume outside of Amazon grew nearly 2%, as Carol mentioned, and I said 200,000 pieces day. That is structurally different volume than what we have been growing with over the last several years. That's going to provide a better foundational base, not just for revenue quality, but also to help us drive a better cost per piece outcome.

The second piece, as you mentioned, we've completed now the network reconfiguration. We finalized the Driver Choice program in the third quarter. We've completed the building restructurings, and we've had the hours come down commensurately with the volume. So we're on track for that completion of that program. That's going to drive this structurally better margin improvement than we saw in the third quarter and gave us the confidence to improve our fourth quarter guide. We expect that to carry over. Those are structural changes. And look, and as we talked about, this kind of range of 50 to 100 basis point spread between RPP and CTP will help us continue to drive improvement in the margin as we go forward.

Carol Tomé

On the productivity side, it's a virtuous cycle here at UBS. Yes, we had a lot of Amazon specific-related activity that we have delivered. But there's more to do on the productivity side, and I'll narrow and look at just our RFID initiative. Here, as you know, we're moving from a scanning to a sensing network, which is eliminating billions of scans and driving productivity, not just inside our operations but with our drivers.

We are moving, as you know, upstream to put the RFID labeling at the customer location, which is good for the customer because it expands the visibility of their chain of control. It's also good for us because it reduces the amount of confusion over miss pickups and that sort of thing. We have RFID labeling at the customer location in 315 customer locations. It's about 3 million packages a day. That's growing to 6 million packages next year. So that initiative is working very, very well. And we'll continue to look at ways to drive automation and productivity in our worldwide network.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Tom Wadewitz from UBS.

Thomas Wadewitz

And yes, it's nice to see the traction on some of the initiatives on the volume side in general. Wanted to ask you about kind of how much visibility you have to that. So kind of specifically, SMB volume growing I think you were saying SMB and enterprise or B2B, that growing as well. So is that something that you say, okay, if we see that in a you can extend that into first half next year? Or just kind of visibility on that piece?

And then I guess, when we think about like CPP versus RPP next year, do you assume that you get kind of let's say, 3% base price and then you get some favorable mix on top of that, like a point of mix on top? Just trying to think about the kind of what keeps you above CPP next year and what are the pieces?

Carol Tomé

Well, I'll start with the visibility and the growth opportunities for us. So we were very pleased with the growth that we saw in enterprise and SMB customers in the third quarter, and we expect to see that in the third quarter and into next year. Why? Well, one reason is our churn has shown dramatic improvement. Our team is doing an excellent job of keeping the volume that we have by meeting our customers where they need us to be.

We're also growing into new opportunities by, first, understanding what the needs are of those industry segments and meeting those customers where they need us to be. And most importantly, I think, is that the consumer is resilient. It's really interesting to look at what's happening with the consumer spend. It's a bit of a taker for sure. If you have assets you're spending, if you don't, you're stretched. But as long as the employment rate stays fairly stable, and it appears to be fairly stable in our country, consumers are going to spend because they have assets. And that, of course, is an important part of how you grow volume is to make sure that consumers are spending. So it's the capabilities that we are investing in, the reduction in churn and a good consumer environment gives us confidence about the visibility to grow.

Now in terms of the spread...

Brian Dykes

Yes, Tom, on the RPC RPP, spread, I think you're thinking about it right. Look, you'll notice that over the course of this year, the RPP level has been coming down. And we've always talked about the components of RPP, right? In the third quarter, it was 6.1% growth, about half of it was fuel. The other half is base rate and mix, right? As we wrap the Amazon declines, that mix benefit will come down, and it will normalize to something that's closer to historic levels.

However, we continue to see a strong pricing environment. We announced our GRI earlier this week. That's consistent with prior years. We continue to see the ability to price for the value that we provide to our customers in these premium segments, as Carol has outlined. And so we expect to continue to get that kind of 200 to 300 basis points base rate pricing and mix benefit as we go forward. Because while we're not deciding Amazon as volume, we are still growing premium volume, which helps to drive a positive product and customer segment mix going forward. Just at a slower pace than what we've seen in the last 18 months.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

Scott Group

So I just want to make sure I'm getting a big picture message on margin, right? So if you look, U.S. margins for the last 3 years, they've been sort of right around 7.5%. It sounds like you think we're going to see margin improvement next year. I just want to understand, like, are there big opportunities for margin improvement? Like can we break out of this range and -- could we get back to -- can we ever get back to like a double-digit margin? Or should we look at Q4, you're saying U.S. margins are going to be up 30 basis points or so? Is that sort of the right magnitude of margin improvement to think about sort of going forward?

Unknown Executive

So it's Scott. So we absolutely think that we will be able to show steady improvement in margin as we move forward. What you see going from Q2 to Q3 and into Q4 is consistent margin improvement year-over-year. as we lap into next year and we get past a lot of the noise on Amazon, yes, look, this kind of 50 to 100 basis point spread in RPP and CPP is going to help us continue to drive consistent margin improvement. There are no step changes, but we will be moving up out of the range as we continue to improve the business mix and drive productivity with some of the initiatives Carol outlined.

Carol Tomé

So that's the way you should think about it is every year, improving margin every year, improving the margin. No, go from 7.5% to 10% in a year, but every year, improve the margin because we're going to continue to lean into premium, the premium opportunity is big. We're going to continue to drive productivity. So every year, margins should get better.

Brian Dykes

And I think, Scott, the level of discipline that we've created around the business on what volume it was right for our network and important for us. and the pricing associated with that volume will allow us to drive consistent margin improvement as we go through the next several years.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ken Hoexter from Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter

Great. Maybe just following up on some of the questions. Your thoughts on inflection to volumes, when do you expect them to turn positive? I guess do we still carry the negative comps of the Amazon through the first half? And should we then -- Brian, it sounds like from your last answer, you see underlying pure pricing continuing?

And then I guess, I don't know if you want to impact that, it sounds like your international margins are actually accelerating, right? I think you said over 20%. So instead of gradual, that sounds like a bigger step up on the international side. So maybe some thoughts on all those.

Brian Dykes

Yes, sure. So on the volume, Ken, I think -- look, we will have the wrap of the Amazon volume on the consolidated -- on the top line volume number until we get through the second half of next year. But focus on the core volume growth, right? We had nearly 2% core volume growth in the third quarter. We expect that to continue going into the fourth quarter, and we will continue to grow that core volume, the prices we're leaning in as we go through 2027. On the pricing, absolutely, look, we've talked about it's a constructive pricing environment.

As I mentioned, we published our GRI that's been consistent with prior years. And we continue to show this 200 to 300 basis point base pricing and mix improvement, and we expect that to continue to go forward, no matter how fuel moves around, right? On the international side, look, I think we had a -- we had always contemplated a step-up going into the fourth quarter. It's driven by -- look, we have a peak in international as well. It's not quite 25%, but it's close to 20%, a step up in volume. And that creates a surge in demand and related demand surcharges that help us improve the margins as we go into the fourth quarter, right? But structurally, look, I think if you look at what we're doing both on the international side and in the domestic side, better revenue quality, more efficient networks are helping us to drive consistent margin improvement.

Carol Tomé

Well, if we look at our international business, and there's a chart posted on the website that shows volume trends by month, you can see what happened in July. When the de minimis exemption was eliminated in Europe, the volume had a sharp decline. But every month following, it's gotten better. And we actually are seeing growth in the most profitable trade lanes, which is China, U.S., Asia to Asia. So that is also helping drive the international margin in the fourth quarter.

And as we look to next year, we expect the international margin to continue to grow. We've said, Brian, the mid-teens, mid- to high teens range. The right range for the international margin as the trade length start to settle down a bit, and we're hoping that that's actually.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Jordan Alliger from Goldman Sachs.

Jordan Alliger

Just sort of thinking bigger picture about those high-value verticals or you've been talking about focused on SMB, health care, B2B, can you remind perhaps how you sort of think about the growth in each category over the next several years? And then on B2B, I don't know if you mentioned explicitly, we come close to getting to an inflection on that front?

Carol Tomé

So the growth rates do vary by the verticals. So if we can take health care, their projected growth rate in complex healthcare logistics is around 6% per year. If we take data centers, I mentioned a $15 billion opportunity, the numbers are crazy. It's like supposed to double, in the double, we'll see. But the opportunity sets are large. Automotive is highly dependent upon, well, a number of factors, of course. But it should grow faster than GDP, and that's an area that we've been investing in as well. Matt, is there anything you want to add to the growth rate opportunities?

Matthew Guffey

Look, just a couple of things. I think Carl hit on data centers. And I think -- look, we continue to see that market be have had accelerated growth even outpaced some of what we've seen in traditional small package. The one highlight, I think, is, look, we're very well positioned in this data center. It's very complex. These are complex needs across the supply chain, where our network, the resiliency of our network is perfectly fit to be able to handle it to Carol's point from factory floor to the front door because it's multimodal and across all geos. So we're in a really good position.

On the SMB front, we're continuing to see the same growth rates that Brian and Carol highlighted, I do think it's worth noting where we're capturing growth and it's not just volume growth within SMBs, but on our digital access program, we're capturing premium growth. So when you think about commercial and you think about also air volume, we're seeing that premium air volume coming in those higher growth markets.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Bascome Majors from Stephens.

Bascome Majors

Carol, going back to your real change takes courage commentary earlier, certainly, the commentary from you and Brian after shows you getting the fruits of your labor into next year on the difficult decisions you've had to make over the last 2 years. As you look out over the next 2, what courage requiring decisions do you think UPS needs to make? And how do the strategic moves you've made in recent months and quarters put you in a position of strength when you make those decisions?

Carol Tomé

Well, Bascome, thank you. And I suspect in your question, there's a question about our Teamster contract. It's important to note that, that comes up for renegotiation or it expires, if you will, on August 1, 2028. So that's a ways out, but it is in the next couple of years. Just as a reminder, we invited Teamsters into our company over 100 years ago. And our approach has always been to have a constructive relationship with Teamster leadership. And we really do try to do that.

In fact, if you go to the Driver Choice program that we offered earlier this year, which was offered to buy drivers out so they could go on to retirement. Teamster leadership was pretty vocal about their disclosure with that program. I think principally because it was so well oversubscribed. And we worked with Teamster leadership and came together on a mutually satisfactory outcome. And that certainly is our approach going forward. I will tell you something that I think is interesting. Except for our founder, Jim Casey, I believe I will be the only CEO who has negotiated 2 Teamster contracts.

And from that, I think it gives me a distinct advantage because there are many lessons learned from the 2023 contract negotiation. And I'm not going to go into all those lessons learned with you today. But those lessons learned, position us for that contract negotiation that will happen in 2028.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Brandon Oglenski from Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski

I want to come back to B2B trends in the quarter. I'm not sure if you guys addressed that what your volumes were specifically? And then maybe more broadly about competition because I think Amazon has obviously made a very big public push here with pricing going up. Are you seeing incremental competition for those premium verticals?

Carol Tomé

On the B2B side, we didn't disclose what the volume trends were, but they were actually down year-on-year, with 60% of the decline was Amazon related. So I'm really pleased with the underlying performance in B2B. And Brian, is there anything you want to call out?

Brian Dykes

I would just say, look, the other important component of B2B that we don't talk about a lot, but I think it's really important because hit both our SMB and our B2B strategy is really around DAP, right? Our DAP program continues to grow tremendously. It's going to be $1.3 billion in the U.S., $1.4 billion globally in the quarter. And we're now 30% B2B and air, right, in the DAP program. So it's not only a driver for us to hit a different customer segment, but it's also a driver for us to continue to grow premium product mix in that customer segment.

Carol Tomé

From a competitive perspective, from a first [indiscernible] from a pricing perspective, it seems like the pricing environment is rational amongst all competitors. It seems very rational. As it relates to Amazon, itself. First of all, we have a really interesting relationship with Amazon because they're a customer, they're a supplier and they are a competitor. As we look at Amazon shipping, we haven't seen any measurable or meaningful impact to our business since the announcement they made earlier in the summer. And I think there are several reasons for that.

Our networks are just different. They have a linear network. We provide reverse logistics. Their ground offer is 2 to 5 days, reliable delivery. We have ground guarantees. We're just a different network. And so we're not really seeing any impact into our business as we sit today. Now of course, we'll pay attention to them. We pay attention to all competitors. But right now, we like the volume trends that we're seeing in our underlying business.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

Brian Ossenbeck

Maybe first a follow-up for Carol, just on the underlying volume trends in the business. I think you mentioned peak the bigger shippers are up sort of similar quarter-to-quarter into the holidays, but the rest were down. It sounded like most of that was Amazon driven. So maybe you can talk about the ex Amazon, ex Bigpeakers and what that looks like for a more, I guess, granular view on the peak season.

And then would love to hear and is on the call assuming he is I think it was mentioned there are some more benefits from a global network. I'm assuming there's not really much structure that would change with new leadership, but we'd be interested in hearing maybe some new processes or efficiencies that you're looking to drive there under the new structure.

Carol Tomé

Of course. So if I was confusing with my comments, I apologize. As we look at the volume in the fourth quarter, we have 100 customers that make up most of the surge and the -- based on their projections, we expect to see a 25% lift in ADV from Q3 to Q4. But remember, we're wrapping the Amazon glide down. So total ADV will be down just slightly in the fourth quarter. But if you back out Amazon, it's growing. Do you want to give any more color?

Brian Dykes

Yes, Brian, just to put some context to it. Total ADV, 1.3%. Sequentially, we're going up 4 million pieces a day from Q3 to Q4, which is a similar shape to what we've had last year. And prior peak. Now what I would say that I think is super exciting from an EPS standpoint. When we look at peak, we actually see the opportunity to deliver a great peak, right? Because by bringing down the water level on some difficult volume, right? It means that we are risking less trailers, releasing less aircraft. We're hiring, we're not having to hire in trade as many people in such a short time period. So it's going to allow us to deliver a great feat for our customers, a great service peak and a great cost peak.

Carol Tomé

And before we turn it over to Nando, I just want to say how thrilled I am to have Nando in this new role. There's no finer operator to be running the global network. So Nando?

Nando Cesarone

Yes. Thanks for the question. And look, having spent the majority of my career overseas. I can put the 2 pieces together. So when you think about the United States 4 years ago, we had redesigned the entire transportation network into zones and made sure that we were working on service issues or productivity issues upstream as opposed to taking those penalties in our transportation network. Since then, we've overlaid our total service plan.

And I just want to give you an example of what we do here in the U.S. in terms of trying to improve productivity that we haven't taken overseas or exported yet. One of them is RFID. We actually don't scan 1.9 million packages a day that are being delivered to our customers through our RFID technology. Those targets will continue, and we're going to take the good from international but good from the U.S. network and put them together. And what will -- that will build us a really strong backbone from an efficiency point of view that will allow us to cater to local customers with their last mile delivery. So right now, though, it's here and now, what's available. We're looking for quick wins, and we're building out that strategy as we move forward.

Carol Tomé

I think, Nando, you've termed it to be a single intelligent transportation utility I love that vision.

Nando Cesarone

That's exactly where we're going to go. And if you take what's happening in the U.S. and we're talking a lot about cost, cost per piece and RPP, since we've implemented the automation, some of the technologies and the different structure in terms of structural, we actually can grow volume, and we're growing less resource as we grow the volume. So that is a recipe for improved margins and we look forward to what we can create globally on those same fronts.

PJ Guido

And Matthew, we have time for one more question.

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Jonathan Chappell from Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell

Brian, from the $3 billion of cost savings, $1.8 billion through September. I know it was supposed to be back half loaded, but with 40% for the last quarter and especially a peak quarter, we're expecting kind of typical seasonality. Is it still kind of line of sight slam dunk? Or is there a chance that it peaks better than expected and some resources are required for that? That some of that $1.2 million of the final piece of that savings puzzle slips into the beginning of next year.

Brian Dykes

No, we feel comfortable with it, Jonathan, because a lot of it is related to the hours that ramp down with the Amazon. So remember, this was all about the volume that was leaving the network. And as those hours exit, that was always going to be weighted to the last quarter of the target. And so we feel comfortable. Additionally, the driver buy out the roughly 1,600 people finished exiting at the end of the third quarter, so you get the full route to that. And then obviously, all the buildings you now exited. So we feel comfortable with the $3 billion objective.

Operator

Thank you. I'll now turn the floor back over to your host, Mr. PJ Guido.

PJ Guido

Thank you, Matthew. This concludes our call. Thank you for joining, and have a good day.