BigBear.ai Posts Mixed Q4 Results, Shares Down 4%

BigBear.ai reported a fourth quarter loss of -$0.01 per share, beating analyst estimates of -$0.07, but revenue of $27.3 million fell short of the $34.48 million consensus estimate.

Shares fell 4.2% following the results, reflecting investor concern over the revenue shortfall.

Revenue declined 38% YoY from $43.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, primarily due to lower volume on Army programs.

The company issued full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million, with a midpoint of $150 million representing approximately 17% growth compared to full-year 2025 revenue of $128 million.

"At the start of 2025, we set out to transform our financial foundations to establish a base from which to accelerate in 2026. We have delivered exactly that," said Kevin McAleenan, CEO of BigBear.ai. "As of year-end 2025, BigBear.ai is in the strongest financial position in the company’s history."

The company’s gross margin declined to 20.3% in the fourth quarter from 37.4% in the prior-year period, due to significant one-time high margin contracts in the fourth quarter of 2024 that did not recur. Adjusted EBITDA was -$10.3 million compared to $2.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by the decrease in gross margin and increased research and development and SG&A expenses.

BigBear.ai ended 2025 with total cash and investments of $462 million. The company settled the remaining $125 million of 2029 convertible notes in January 2026, primarily through debt-to-equity conversion features. The company also completed acquisitions of Ask Sage in December 2025 and CargoSeer in January 2026, positioning itself for growth in 2026.