Option Witch | CoreWeave is Expected to Show a 18% Swing This Week, Two High-Volatility Strategies in Focus!

CoreWeave is poised to report earnings after the market closes on Aug 12. Consessus expects 2Q revenue of $1.08 billion, up 174% from last year. Adjusted loss could be 19 cents.

Q2 results are pivotal - another revenue beat could reignite the rally, but any disappointment may trigger a sharp re-rating. Option traders are pricing in a potential move of 18% in either direction following the earnings release. Investors may consider high-volatility options plays like straddles and strangles.

Capex View to View More Than Orders

CoreWeave's 2Q results will likely showcase improving orders amid increased Al infrastructure spending by customers Microsoft, Google and OpenAI. This could put upward pressure on capital-spending guidance, which seen as the most important metric. Any news of a substantial rise in the previous view of $20-$23 billion may be met with disappointment.

The pending all-stock Core Scientific acquisition is another topic that could see increased scrutiny on the conference call, with news reports indicating potential backlash from Core Scientific shareholders given that CoreWeave stock is down 31% since the deal was announced.

IPO Lockup Ends Thursday?

The company launched its IPO offering and the lockup normally would be around Sept. 24. In CoreWeaves case, though, the lockup will apparently expire two days after it reports earnings for the second time as a public company.

A Citigroup report said: "Heading into Q2 earnings for CoreWeave, we reiterate our bullish stance on AI demand and CRWV's ability to outperform near-term topline targets. Though CoreWeave has an expiring lockup that frees up 83% of Class A shares beginning the morning of Aug. 15 we believe strong fundamentals can help absorb the increase in float. Specifically, we see room for another double-digit percentage top-line beat possible in Q2 amid countless signs of inflecting AI demand across the industry."

Some Wall Street analysts say it's unclear when the IPO lockup expires. "It is unclear," Gil Luria, analyst at D.A. Davidson said. "There is some language in the original S1 that leaves it open that they would end the lockup right after reporting the second quarter, but it is ambiguous enough that the date may still be the six month date (Sept. 24)."

Luria added: "It is possible that they would do a secondary issuance of locked up shares in order to preempt a lockup up as well. We may get an update on that when they report Tuesday."

Options Traders Anticipate a 18% Move

The expected move for CRWV options expiring on Aug 15, 2025 (4 days) (m) is ±$25.49 (18.44%), with a price range of $112.76 - $163.74.

Source: OptionCharts

Call open interest expiring this Friday totals 220,692, while puts stand at 134,918 — indicating bullish tilt among options traders.

Source: OptionCharts

Open interest for $280 calls expiring this week are particularly high, with 73,603 unclosed contracts as of Aug 11.

$CRWV 20250815 280.0 CALL$

Source: OptionCharts

Option Strategy

1. Long Straddle

• Structure: Buy ATM $140 Call + ATM $140 Put

  $CRWV Straddle 250815 140.0C/140.0P$

• Cost:

  • Call: ~$10.34

  • Put: ~$15.77

  • Total Debit: ~$26.11 per straddle

• Breakeven: Stock >$166.58 or <$113.42 (11% move required)

  Source: Tiger Trade App

  Rationale:

• High IV (121.54%) inflates premiums, requiring a larger move for profitability.

• Current IV/HV ratio (1.33) implies options are priced for higher volatility than historical trends.

2. Long Strangle

• Structure: Buy OTM $145 Call + OTM $135 Put

  $CRWV Strangle 250815 135.0P/145.0C$

• Cost:

  • $145 Call: ~$8.4

  • $135 Put: ~$12.9

  • Total Debit: ~$21.3 per strangle

• Breakeven: Stock >$166.72 or <$113.28 (11% move required)

  Source: Tiger Trade App

  Rationale:

  • Lower upfront cost vs. straddle, but requires sharper price swing.

  • Call skew (Call/Put Ratio: 2.19) suggests bullish sentiment, potentially overpricing calls.

Key Considerations

• Earnings Timing: August 15 options capture the earnings event but face rapid theta decay post-announcement.