LIVE MARKETS-All quiet on the Monday front

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

ALL QUIET ON THE MONDAY FRONT

On Monday investors enjoyed a calm before the storm; no economic indicators, Fed commentary or quarterly earnings to fill the sails and nudge the market one way or the other.

But things are expected to heat up as the week progresses.

On the data front, the Labor Department's consumer and producer price indexes (CPI and PPI) will provide a clearer picture of June inflation, and the extent to which Trump's erratic tariff policies have begun to affect price growth, if at all.

Tuesday brings the CPI report, which tracks the prices U.S. urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services. Analysts are calling for both headline and core (ex. food and energy) prices to have grown by 0.3% last month, hotter than the 0.1% uptick in May.

Year-over-year, headline and core CPI are expected to land at 2.7% and 3.0%, respectively, an increase over the prior month and a step in the wrong direction as far as the U.S. Federal Reserve is concerned. A look under the hood could reveal whether the increase is harbinger of a trend or simply a one-month detour on the meandering path down toward Powell & Co's 2% annual inflation target.

On the other hand, Wednesday's PPI numbers, which reflect the prices companies get for their goods and services at the figurative factory door, are seen edging lower on an annual basis.

The CPI/PPI one-two punch is unlikely to move the Fed to cut its key policy rate this month. Financial markets are pricing in a 95% probability that the central bank will hold the Fed funds target rate in the 4.25% to 4.50% range at the conclusion of its July meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department is on deck with its June Retail Sales report, which is expected to show a meager, 0.1% rebound from May's steeper-than-expected 0.9% drop, which itself was widely believed to be an echo of April's beat-the-tariffs auto sales rush.

The data will be parsed for clues regarding the health of the consumer, who carries about 70% of the U.S. economy on their back.

Industrial data rounds out the week, with June industrial production/capacity utilization expected from the Federal Reserve, with Empire State and Philly Fed providing a snapshot of Atlantic region manufacturing.

Friday is set to bring housing starts/building permits and the University of Michigan's preliminary take on July consumer sentiment.

Second-quarter earnings season is revving its motor and pulling up to the starting line.

Banking powerhouses Citigroup C.N, JPMorgan Chase JPM.N, Bank of America BAC.N, Wells Fargo WFC.N, Goldman Sachs GS.N and Morgan Stanley MS.N will set the ball rolling, with a plethora of industrials, consumer products filling out the roster (among others).

Analysts currently expect second-quarter S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth of 5.7%, on aggregate, sharply lower than the 10.7% estimate as it stood at the beginning of the quarter, according to LSEG data.

Here's a look at four major core U.S. inflation gauges, and the distance remaining between them and the central bank's 2% goal:

(Stephen Culp)

*****

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

TARIFFS, DATA, EARNINGS SPUR CAUTIOUS KICKOFF TO TRADING WEEK CLICK HERE

S&P 500 INDEX TIPTOEING AROUND A TRIP WIRE CLICK HERE

FIXATING ON VALUATIONS CLICK HERE

WHAT IF EUROPE ENDS UP FACING 30% TARIFFS? CLICK HERE

"STAY BULLISH ON DOMESTIC VS EXPORTER STOCKS" CLICK HERE

AUTOS TOP STOXX FALLERS, FTSE UP CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPE HEADS SOUTH ON US TARIFF THREAT CLICK HERE

THE ART OF HOGGING HEADLINES, USING TARIFFS CLICK HERE