S&P 500 index looking golden again

• U.S. equity index futures mixed; Nasdaq 100 off ~0.3%
• Jun ADP national employment -33k vs +95k estimate
• Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.2%
• Dollar rallies; gold up; crude up ~1%; bitcoin up >1%
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.29%

S&P 500 INDEX LOOKING GOLDEN AGAIN

After two straight days of fresh record closing highs, the S&P 500 index .SPX edged down 0.1% on Monday. That said, bulls are taking note as the benchmark index's 50-day moving average (DMA) crossed above its 200-DMA, scoring a "golden cross":

The last golden cross occurred on February 2, 2023 and lasted 549 trading days. A bearish death cross then occurred on April 14 of this year.

Obviously, when comparing an intermediate- and longer- term moving average, their crossovers have the potential to be quite late relative to an instrument's absolute highs and lows.

Indeed, the most recent death cross occurred five trading days after the SPX had already fallen more than 21% from its then February 19 record intraday high.

Now, this golden cross is occurring after the SPX has already rallied as much as 28.5% off its April 7 intraday low.

Nevertheless, bulls point to a golden cross as an undeniable sign of market health, and until proven otherwise, trend-followers may heed the signal.

Using LSEG data back to 1928, and prior to Tuesday, there were 49 golden crosses on the S&P 500. Average SPX gains 90- and 180- trading days later were 4.8% and 10.4% (vs 3.1% and 6.4% for all periods).

Eleven of these golden crosses occurred since 2003, and the recent gains over the next 90- and 180- trading days were even better at 7.3% and 13.5% (vs 3.3% and 6.9% for all periods).

A golden cross occurred on the Nasdaq composite .IXIC on Monday. The Dow's .DJI 50-DMA is rising, but is still below its 200-DMA.

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