United States Dollar: Supported into year-end before later softening – National Bank of Canada

FXStreetNov 13, 2026 2:37 AM

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National Bank of Canada strategists Stéfane Marion and Kyle Dahms note that the Dollar remains underpinned by persistent U.S. inflation and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. They highlight safe-haven demand on weaker global risk appetite and see midterm elections as a medium-term headwind. The Dollar is expected to stay supported through year-end before gradually weakening in 2025 as relative-rate support peaks.

Fed tightening and politics shape outlook

"The U.S. dollar remains supported by persistent inflation and the prospect of further Fed tightening."

"Following October’s pause, another firm CPI report reinforces our expectation for tighter policy before year-end, while a deterioration in global risk appetite could provide further support through safe-haven demand."

"We expect the dollar to remain supported through year-end before weakening gradually in ൭൫൭൲ as relative-rate support peaks."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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