DXY: 2-way trades to dominate – OCBC

FXStreetNov 6, 2024 11:04 AM

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The US Dollar (USD) traded higher, as vote count skews in favour of Trump at time of writing. DXY was last at 104.92, OCBC’ FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Trump outcome may see a play-up of US-China trade tensions

“The 7 swings states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada matter (account for 93 electoral votes). Early count (based of 79% votes counted) shows Trump gaining the momentum in Georgia while West Virginia flipped in favour of Trump. It is still early to call at this point and news flow of tally count should continue to drive 2-way trades in FX markets intra-day.”

Daily momentum remains bearish while RSI rose from near oversold conditions. Resistance at 105.20 levels. Support at 103.70/80 levels (21, 200 DMAs, 50% fibo), 102.90/103.10 levels (100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low) and 102.30 (50 DMA).

“Outcome will have implications on FX as shifts in fiscal, foreign and trade policies may occur, depending on whether Trump or Harris is elected as the next President. A Trump outcome may see a play-up of US-China trade tensions and should pose upward pressure on USD, UST yields (i.e. long gold, short CNH). However, a Kamala Harris outcome should see anxiety ease. On this note, USD, UST yield can ease and Asian/ high-beta FX should find a breather.”

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