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EUROPE GAS-Prices rangebound as market awaits clarity on Ukraine peace talks

ReutersAug 19, 2025 9:36 AM

- Dutch and British wholesale gas prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday morning as the market awaits clarity on Ukraine peace talks following the meeting between U.S. President Trump, Ukraine's President Zelenskiy and European leaders.

The benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub TRNLTTFMc1 inched up by 0.39 euro to 31.41 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0855 GMT, LSEG data showed.

The day ahead price TRNLTTFD1 was 0.16 euro higher at 30.83 euros/MWh.

The British day ahead price TRGBNBPD1 was up 0.2 pence at 76.30 pence per therm.

Trump told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday that the United States would help guarantee Ukraine's security in any deal to end Russia's war there, though the extent of any assistance was not immediately clear.

"The gathering appears to have set some positive tones, with the next step being to arrange a meeting directly between the Presidents of Ukraine and Russia in the coming days," consultancy Auxilione said in a morning note.

It remains unclear as to what, if any, terms will be agreed as part of any potential peace deal, Auxilione note said.

European natural gas prices came under pressure last week ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, with TTF prices falling to their lowest since July 2024

"In the absence of clarity on the geopolitical level, the market maintains its wait-and-see-position," analysts at Engie's EnergyScan said.

Demand in north-west Europe is seen lower as temperatures are forecast to decline below normal levels for a few days, LSEG data showed.

"Prices are expected to remain in their recent range given no notable changes to the supply/demand fundamentals over the coming days," said Wayne Bryan, Gas research principal at LSEG.

"Any extensions to current maintenance or new unplanned outages continue to pose upside price risks, especially with the scheduled ramp in Norwegian maintenance from August 27," he added.

EU gas storage levels are at around 74% full and lagging both last year’s levels and the five-year average.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 was up 0.12 euro at 71.93 euros per metric ton.

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