SPCX Analysis

Following the Democrats' victory in both chambers of the U.S. Congress, GLJ Research believes that a potential merger between SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) will become slower, more costly, and less likely. For existing SpaceX shareholders, if the transaction originally required paying a high premium, a slower process could alleviate concerns about ceding too much equity, providing some support for valuations.

TradingKey - Elon Musk strongly backed Republican candidates in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections but failed to prevent the Democrats from taking control of Congress, leaving his companies facing fresh market pressure. Over the past two trading sessions, share prices of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) fell consecutively, resulting in a cumulative market capitalization loss of approximately $456 billion.

TradingKey - On November 5, Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell 9.05% to close at $123.62, marking a second consecutive trading day of declines and retreating about 29.9% from its October intraday high of $176.42.

SpaceX's valuation plunged, tumbling 9% in a single day to approach its late-August low, with the market eyeing the key $100 psychological support level.

On November 5, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices tumbled, with semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks continuing to face pressure. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 9%, hitting its lowest level since mid-April this year. AI infrastructure faces the potential threat of a slowdown in data center construction. A decisive Democratic victory in the midterm elections sparked investor concerns over tightening regulation in the data center sector. If potential construction pauses materialize, they could delay the deployment of computing capacity and the delivery of upstream equipment, prompting a reassessment of the timeline for future revenue realization.

TradingKey - As of press time on November 4, Eastern Time, SpaceX (SPCX) fell over 7% in pre-market trading, currently trading at $130.64.

TradingKey - On November 4, Eastern Time, the three major US stock index futures rebounded after falling overnight.

TradingKey - The results of the 2026 US midterm elections have reshaped the balance of power in Congress. With the Democratic Party winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Trump administration's policy leeway over the next two years will be further constrained. The new Congress will take office in January 2027, and businesses under Elon Musk may face heightened scrutiny.

Ahead of the US midterm elections, the commercial relationship between SpaceX (SPCX) and the government has once again come into focus. US President Donald Trump stated on The New York Post podcast "Pod Force One" that if Democrats gain control of Congress and push for investigations targeting Elon Musk and associated individuals, he would consider granting pardons if necessary to protect them.

SpaceX has pulled back over 20% on the monthly chart, with bulls retreating to defend the $135 mark, potentially risking a test of the major $100 level.