센추리 알루미늄(CENX) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 현금 7억 5,500만 달러 달성

센추리 알루미늄(Century Aluminum Company, CENX)은 마운트 홀리가 전면 가동에 복귀하고 그룬다르탕기 제2라인이 재가동됨에 따라 2026년 3분기 출하량이 증가했다고 발표했다. 알루미늄 실현 가격 상승과 출하량 증가에 힘입어 분기 순매출은 10억 달러에 육박했으며, 조정 EBITDA는 3억 3,200만 달러에 달했다.

핵심 요약

• 3분기 출하량은 마운트 홀리 확장과 그룬다르탕기 제2라인 재가동에 힘입어 전 분기 대비 33% 증가한 약 173,500톤을 기록했다.
• 순매출은 전 분기 대비 2억 900만 달러 증가해 10억 달러에 육박했다. 조정 EBITDA는 2분기 대비 500만 달러 증가한 3억 3,200만 달러를 기록했다.
• 센추리는 3억 6,500만 달러의 현금흐름을 창출했으며, 차입금 4억 8,600만 달러 및 10억 달러 이상의 총 유동성과 대비되는 7억 5,500만 달러의 현금을 보유한 채 분기를 마감했다.
• 경영진은 주로 LME 실현 가격의 하락 전망을 반영해 4분기 조정 EBITDA 가이던스를 2억 7,500만~3억 달러로 제시했다.
• 회사는 4분기 중 마운트 홀리가 전체 생산량을 회복하고 제품 믹스를 정상화할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 그룬다르탕기의 전류량은 1분기 중 공칭 생산능력 수준까지 점진적으로 확대될 것으로 전망된다.
• 센추리는 오클라호마 제련소 신설을 위한 금융 조건에 대부분 합의했으며, 최종 투자 결정을 앞두고 전력 계약 문서화, 엔지니어링, 인허가 및 지역사회 협력이 계속 진행 중이라고 밝혔다.

주요 재무 데이터

실현된 LME 가격은 전 분기 대비 약 150달러 상승한 톤당 3,400달러를 기록했다. 실현된 미국 중서부 프리미엄은 30달러 하락한 톤당 2,450달러(파운드당 1.11달러)를 기록한 반면, 유럽 프리미엄은 약 70달러 상승한 톤당 520달러를 기록했다. 가격 요인이 조정 EBITDA를 900만 달러 증가시켰으며, 출하량 및 판매 믹스는 1,900만 달러를 추가 견인했다.

현금흐름에는 센추리의 2025 회계연도 45X조 세액공제 환급금 9,400만 달러, 아이슬란드 관련 보험금 1,900만 달러, 약 4,000만 달러의 운전자본 회수가 포함되었다. 헤지 결제액은 총 2,400만 달러였으며, 현금 이자 및 세금은 약 1,600만 달러였다.

사업 및 운영 실적

마운트 홀리: 경영진은 8월에 확인된 생산 불안정성이 3분기 중에 해결되었다고 밝혔다. 해당 공장은 4분기 중 점진적으로 전면 가동 및 정상적인 판매 믹스로 복귀할 것으로 예상되나, 앞선 불안정성으로 발생한 규격 미달(off-spec) 제품이 이번 분기 믹스에 다소 부담을 줄 전망이다.

그룬다르탕기: 아이슬란드 제련소는 7월에 전체 전해조 가동에 복귀한 후 견조한 분기 생산 실적을 달성했다. 교체용 변압기 4대 중 3대가 도착했으며, 1대는 설치를 마쳤고 다른 1대는 11월 중 가동될 예정이다. 경영진은 추가 변압기가 가동됨에 따라 1분기 중 전류량이 증가할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

자말코: 해당 사업장은 5월에 처음 논의된 보크사이트 품질 문제를 지속적으로 해결하고 있다. 센추리는 수정된 광산 계획이 진전을 보이고 있으나 이를 실행하는 데는 수 분기가 걸릴 것이라고 밝혔다. TG4 발전 터빈은 8월에 가동을 시작해 비용이 더 높은 자메이카 전력망에 대한 의존도를 낮췄다.

세브리: 경영진은 계절적 전력 비용이 3분기 부담 요인으로 작용했음에도 불구하고 운영 및 재무 실적이 견조했다고 설명했다. 해당 분기 MISO 인디애나 허브 전력 가격은 메가와트시당 평균 약 60달러를 기록했다.

오클라호마 제련소: 센추리와 EGA는 금융, 전력 계약 및 엔지니어링 작업을 진전시켰다. 회사는 허용된 불소 배출량을 37% 감축하기로 약정하는 환경 계획을 제출했다. 회사가 발표한 경제성 연구에 따르면 이 프로젝트는 오클라호마주 GDP에 연간 약 15억 달러를 기여하고, 궁극적으로 1,000개 이상의 영구 직접 일자리와 5,000개의 간접 및 유발 일자리를 창출할 수 있을 것으로 추정된다.

경영진은 제련소가 완공되면 미국의 1차 알루미늄 생산량이 대략 두 배로 증가할 것이라고 밝혔다. 또한 이 프로젝트는 센추리가 오클라호마 연간 생산량 중 자사 지분 한도 내에서 통상 적용되는 50% 관세율 대신 25%의 관세율로 1차 알루미늄을 수입할 수 있도록 하는 수입 인센티브 혜택도 받게 된다.

경영진 가이던스

센추리는 다음 가정을 바탕으로 4분기 조정 EBITDA를 2억 7,500만~3억 달러로 예상하고 있다:

출하량 및 믹스 개선은 주로 마운트 홀리의 생산 및 출하량 증가에서 비롯될 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 또한 마운트 홀리의 온전한 분기 물량 반영과 그룬다르탕기의 전류량 증가에 힘입어 1분기에 추가적인 생산 개선 효과가 있을 것으로 전망하고 있다.

위험 요인 및 주시 사항

• 4분기 LME 실현 가격은 3분기 대비 톤당 약 250달러 하락할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 전 분기 대비 조정 EBITDA에 가장 큰 역풍으로 작용할 전망이다.
• 중동 분쟁에 따른 고유가로 인해 코크스와 중유 가격은 여전히 높은 수준을 유지하고 있다.
• 자말코 사업장이 보크사이트 품질 제약을 해결해 나감에 따라 수정된 광산 계획의 이행에는 수 분기가 소요될 전망이다.
• 오클라호마 프로젝트는 최종 투자 결정을 내리기 전에 금융, 전력 계약, 엔지니어링, 인허가 및 지역사회 협력 전반에 걸친 조율이 여전히 필요하다.
• 마운트 홀리의 운영 불안정성은 해결되었으나, 관련 규격 미달 제품이 4분기 판매 믹스에 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

자본 배분: 경영진은 주주 환원을 약속하기 전에 오클라호마 최종 투자 결정을 기다릴 계획이라고 밝혔다. 이를 통해 회사의 지분 출자 규모와 시기를 명확히 파악할 수 있을 것이다. 다만 현금이 예상보다 빠르게 축적될 경우 경영진은 자본 배분을 지속적으로 검토할 방침이다.

오클라호마 금융 및 전력: 센추리는 실질적으로 모든 핵심 금융 조건에 합의했으며 FID 시점까지 패키지가 준비될 것으로 기대한다고 밝혔다. 회사는 전력회사로부터 직접 전력을 구매할 계획이며, 최종 문서화 작업이 진행 중이다. 경영진은 유리한 비용, 금리 및 구조를 이유로 해당 자금 조달을 전액 활용할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

수입 인센티브 적용 시점: 센추리는 미국 상무부와 프로그램의 세부 운영 방안을 논의 중이다. 경영진은 회사가 잠재적으로 FID와 동시에 인센티브를 신속히 활용하기 시작할 수 있을 것으로 예상하고 있다.

원가 구조: 경영진은 최근의 원가 개선이 주로 생산량 증가, 고정비 흡수 개선, 노동력 및 전력 사용 효율화에 기인한다고 설명했다. 경영진은 약간의 추가 개선 가능성과 함께 현재의 원가 구조가 2027년 및 그 이후까지 이어질 것으로 기대하고 있다.

추가 유동성 확보 방안: 센추리는 호스빌에 건설 중인 테라울프(TeraWulf) 데이터 센터에 대한 6.8% 지분을 보유하고 있다. 해당 시설이 가동되면 센추리는 해당 지분을 테라울프에 3억 달러에 매도청구하거나 더 높은 가치로 제3자에게 매각할 수 있는 권리를 갖는다. 회사는 추가 자본을 출자할 의무가 없다고 밝혔다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Century Aluminum Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Chad Rigg, Vice President, Finance and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Chad Rigg

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the third quarter conference call. I'm joined here today by Jesse Gary, Century's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Peter Trpkovski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. As a reminder, today's presentation is available on our website at www.centuryaluminum.com. We use our website as a means of disclosing material information about the company and for complying with Regulation FD.

Turning to Slide 2. Please take a moment to review the cautionary statements with respect to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures in today's discussions. And with that, I'll hand the call to Jesse.

Jesse Gary

Thanks, Chad. Thanks to everyone for joining. I'll start today with our third quarter results, then walk through our operations and give you an update on the Oklahoma smelter project before turning to the great market conditions we continue to operate in today. Pete will then take you through the quarter in detail and our fourth quarter outlook. To begin, I want to thank our teams across our locations for another strong quarter of safety performance. We had the hot summer temperatures and a lot of new employees across the assets due to restarts, and our team remained dedicated and focused.

Turning to Page 4. Our excellent third quarter performance was enabled by the return to full capacity across our assets for the first time in over a decade. Combined with strong demand and pricing in our U.S. and European markets, our assets generated net sales in the quarter of nearly $1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $332 million. Staying with Page 4 on operations. At Mt. Holly, the production instability we flagged in August has been resolved. This instability was not unusual following a restart of that size, and the team did a good job taking action to resolve it despite record high summer temperatures in South Carolina. With the instability behind us, the plant should return to full volume and normalized production mix across the fourth quarter. At Grundartangi, the smelter had an excellent production quarter after returning to full pot complement in July.

Three of our 4 replacement transformers have now arrived in Iceland, with the first new transformer already installed, another being placed in service this month and the remaining 2 expected to be installed over the next several months. As the additional transformers come online, we can bring Line 2 amperage up from the reduced levels we have been running since the restart and return the plant to its full nameplate production. We anticipate the return to full amperage should take place over the course of the first quarter, and we will give you additional details on the Q4 call in February. The team has done a really good job returning the line to production over 6 months sooner than we originally expected.

At Jamalco, the team continues to work through the bauxite quality issue we first discussed in May. The revised mine plan is being implemented, and we are making progress. But as I've said, the new plan will take a few quarters to implement. Separately, we brought our new power generation turbine, TG4, online in August, and it is producing well, allowing us to avoid buying energy from the expensive Jamaican grid. Finally, Sebree had another excellent quarter operationally and financially. Sebree is setting the standard for the rest of the Century portfolio and only continues to improve. Great work again by that team.

Before we turn to market conditions, let me give you a quick update on Oklahoma. Along with our partners at EGA, we made good progress on our new smelter project in the third quarter. Financing discussions have advanced, with material terms largely agreed and on track to be ready by FID. We also made good progress on our power contract in the quarter, progressing towards final documentation with our supplier. At the same time, we continue to work with Bechtel and the EGA team on our detailed engineering plan, which will continue in earnest in the fourth quarter.

We are working with state regulators and the community to advance the project and address concerns that have been raised. In September, we submitted a new environmental plan to the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality, under which the project committed to reduce its permitted fluoride emissions by 37%, placing the new smelter amongst the best in the world. We also published a new economic impact study, which found that the new smelter is expected to increase Oklahoma's GDP by almost $1.5 billion per year, representing nearly 1% of the state's total GDP. To the same end, we have begun working with Tulsa Innovation Labs on workforce development, as the smelter should ultimately create over 1,000 permanent direct jobs and 5,000 indirect and induced jobs. While this dialogue with regulators and the community is ongoing, we believe we have made progress in addressing remaining concerns.

Finally, we were pleased to see Mike Mazzei elected this past Tuesday to be the next governor of Oklahoma. Mike, along with the current governor, Kevin Stitt, have been great supporters of the project, and we look forward to working with them over the coming months to reach FID. Once built, the Oklahoma smelter will roughly double total U.S. primary aluminum production and restore domestic production of military-grade high-purity aluminum. When complete, it will be amongst the most efficient and advanced smelters in the world and a crown jewel of the U.S. industrial base.

Okay. Let's spend a few minutes on the market, starting on Page 5. Market conditions remain robust with supply still constrained by Middle East disruptions and a slow return to curtailed production in the region. Demand in our U.S. and European markets remain strong, driven by data center and power system build-out and good automotive demand. Other bright spots include commercial aerospace, defense and rearmament and the reshoring of U.S. domestic manufacturing demand. Our position as a reliable supplier with short flexible supply lines into both the U.S. and European markets has only been enhanced by the recent disruptions in production elsewhere in the world.

All of this is reflected in historically low global inventory shown on Page 6, leaving a very constructive pricing environment with spot LME of approximately $3,175 per ton, Midwest Premium of approximately $1.12 per pound and the European Duty-Paid Premium of approximately $575 per tonne. We also expect strong value-added product demand in 2027. We are in the middle of the contracting season now, and we'll provide you guidance on 2027 value-added premiums on our Q4 call. On the cost side of things shown on Page 7, you can see the impact of the high summer temperatures on Indy Hub power prices at Sebree, but we have seen those prices moderate nicely as we've returned to normal temperatures over the past couple of weeks. Coke and heavy fuel oil prices remain elevated, given continued high oil prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.

Pete will now take you through our third quarter results and fourth quarter outlook.

Peter Trpkovski

Thank you, Jesse. I'll review our third quarter results, cash flow and financial position, then turn to our fourth quarter outlook. Third quarter shipments were approximately 173,500 tons, up 33% sequentially, reflecting the Mt. Holly return to full capacity and the restart of Line 2 at Grundartangi. Net sales increased $209 million sequentially to nearly $1 billion, driven primarily by higher realized LME prices and shipments. Net income was $303 million, or $2.89 per share. Adjusted net income was $272 million, or $2.58 per share, excluding exceptional items. Exceptional items primarily included unrealized gains on derivative contracts and business interruption losses in Iceland. Adjusted EBITDA was $332 million, supported by higher LME prices, regional premiums and volumes following the Mt. Holly expansion. During the quarter, we converted $332 million of adjusted EBITDA into $365 million of cash flow, ending the quarter with $755 million in cash on the balance sheet.

Turning to Slide 9. Adjusted EBITDA increased $5 million sequentially to $332 million. Realized LME increased approximately $150 to $3,400 per ton. The U.S. Midwest Premium declined $30 to $2,450 per ton, or $1.11 per pound, while the European Premium rose approximately $70 to $520 per ton. Together, pricing contributed an incremental $9 million versus the prior quarter. As expected, energy costs were a seasonal headwind, with MISO Indiana Hub prices averaging approximately $60 per megawatt hour for Sebree. Volume and sales mix contributed an additional $19 million sequentially, reflecting the Mt. Holly expansion and shipment timing. Operating expenses increased following some initial instability at Mt. Holly after the expansion.

Turning to Slide 10. We began the quarter with $390 million in cash and delivered strong operating cash flow. First, we received $94 million in cash for our fiscal 2025 Section 45X tax credit and continue to accrue credits quarterly. We also expect to receive the outstanding $80 million from our fiscal 2023 credit in 2027. Next, in Iceland, potline 2 returned to near full production. We received $19 million in insurance proceeds during the quarter and expect to continue to receive additional recoveries on a lag basis in Q4 and into 2027. CapEx totaled $38 million. About $18 million of this was investment spend related to the Iceland transformer replacements, but the overwhelming majority of this investment spend on restarts and new power turbine in Jamaica is now behind us.

Cash interest and taxes totaled approximately $16 million. This primarily reflects the semiannual interest payment on our senior notes. Hedge settlements totaled $24 million. Working capital also released nearly $40 million in cash, as inventory built following the Mt. Holly expansion shipped as expected. We closed the quarter with $755 million in cash, no revolving credit borrowings, more cash than total debt and more than $1 billion in liquidity. We expect strong cash conversion to continue, supported by additional 45X tax credits and Grundartangi insurance recoveries.

Let's turn to Slide 11 and review our fourth quarter outlook. We expect lagged LME of $3,150 per ton, down approximately $250 from Q3 realized prices. The lagged U.S. Midwest premium is expected to be $1.10 per pound, down $0.01, while the European Duty Paid Premium is expected to rise to $550 per ton. Together, these pricing changes are expected to reduce adjusted EBITDA by $35 million to $45 million sequentially. We expect energy costs to improve flat to $5 million sequentially, as MISO Indiana Hub prices are expected to improve by approximately $10 per megawatt hour versus the prior quarter. Higher raw material costs are expected to create a $5 million to $10 million sequential headwind.

We expect operating expenses to increase approximately $5 million sequentially. Volume and sales mix are expected to improve by $5 million to $10 million, driven by higher production and shipments at Mt. Holly. Some off-spec material from the earlier instability will weigh a bit on Q4 sales mix. Taken together, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $275 million to $300 million at expected realized prices. For modeling purposes, we expect realized hedge settlements of $20 million to $25 million and tax expense of $10 million to $15 million. Both will affect Q4 adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share.

With that, I'll hand the call back to Jesse.

Jesse Gary

Just before we turn the call over for questions, I'd like to take a quick minute to highlight the excellent cash flow performance of the business and the strength of our balance sheet. As Pete discussed, in the third quarter, we converted $332 million of adjusted EBITDA into $365 million of cash flow in the quarter and ended September with $755 million of cash against only $486 million of debt. Century is converting its earnings into cash at a very high rate right now, and we see that continuing.

Our major investment CapEx programs to restore production at Mt. Holly and Grundartangi and install TG4 at Jamalco are now complete. Those projects represented about $125 million of investment capital spend this year that is now finished and will not repeat. From here, we expect to return to more normalized CapEx levels, leaving room for substantially higher cash flow conversion going forward. In addition, we still have additional cash payments relating to previous quarters that we expect to receive in 2027, namely the 45X tax credits from the 2023 and 2026 tax years and the remainder of our Grundartangi insurance recoveries.

We also still retain our 6.8% interest in the TeraWulf data center being built at Hawesville with the right to put that interest to TeraWulf for $300 million after the data center is operating or to sell it to a third party if we can achieve a higher value. On that front, TeraWulf has announced very good progress on the project, hiring Fluor to do the EPC build and securing investment-grade credit support from Google to back the financing. Please remember, our 6.8% interest is in the completed data center, and we do not have any obligation to contribute more capital.

All told, we expect our already strong cash position to continue to improve in the coming quarters as we reap the benefits of our investments that return Grundartangi and Mt. Holly to full capacity and strong market conditions. We expect to use the strong cash position first to fund our share of the Oklahoma project once we reach FID. Once that decision is completed, we plan to provide you with further guidance on potential additional high-return investments and shareholder returns. Please remember that the Oklahoma project will benefit from the import incentive program that we discussed last quarter, which should allow us to import primary aluminum up to our share of the annual production in Oklahoma at a reduced tariff rate of 25% versus the 50% rate that otherwise applies.

No company is investing more to restore American primary aluminum production than Century. We are the largest producer of aluminum in the United States. We employ more American primary aluminum workers than any other company, and we are planning to invest billions more into new production in Oklahoma. We remain laser-focused on execution and look forward to speaking to you about our 2027 plan on our February call. Thank you for your time, and we look forward to taking your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question from the line of Nick Giles of B. Riley Securities.

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Nick Giles

Nice to see the progress here. I guess just on your last point there, Jesse, you mentioned that you want to build enough cash to have the equity check for the Oklahoma project. But I have to imagine that a lot of the CapEx spend might occur more so in 2028 than 2027. So there's potentially a bit of a timing mismatch where you could have excess cash on the balance sheet. What do you plan to do with that cash? And would you be willing to look into shareholder returns earlier than expected, just given that the stock has been under pressure?

Jesse Gary

Yes. Thanks, Nick. We had a little technical difficulties on our end. Can everyone hear us fine?

Operator

Your line is open.

Jesse Gary

Great. Thanks, Nick. Good question. Obviously, we're very happy with the performance and the cash build we've seen this quarter, and we expect to see for quarters to come. And I'd largely agree with you that the stock definitely seems underpriced where we are here today. As we think about it, given the significance and scale of the Oklahoma project to Century and really to the entire U.S. industry, we believe it's prudent to wait on shareholder returns until we reach FID. This allows us to finish the financing and structuring of the import incentive and see the quantum and shape of our equity requirements beyond just the total amount of the equity requirements, but just how that spend may play out over the period before making other capital allocation decisions.

But in the meantime, as you say, we'll continue to be responsible stewards of the cash, and we'll move as quickly as possible to FID. Given the significant cash flow of the business, we will continue to assess the situation, though. And if we do continue to generate significant cash as we expect we do, we'll just watch the timing of FID, watch that cash build. And if we do see an opportunity, we'll come back and let everyone know.

Nick Giles

Understood, Jesse. No, that's very helpful color. I just wanted to ask about, kind of, the overall power strategy in Oklahoma. Would you expect that, that power will be hedged? And then what are, kind of, the key gating items as it relates to the power agreement specifically?

Jesse Gary

Yes. Good question. Obviously, at Century, we do purchase power in many different ways across our assets. And in Oklahoma, we will be buying from the utility directly rather than from the market, like you see at Sebree, or with an LME percentage type arrangement like you see in Iceland. So it will look more like the structure you're used to seeing from us in South Carolina, although it will have its own structuring within that, that we'll get to you once we reach that FID decision. But hopefully, that gives you a sense of the type of contract that we're talking about at least.

And then to your second part of your question, we have really made -- continue to make good progress on that, Nick, with our counterparty. And as I said, we're, sort of, moving into the final documentation phase here. So things are moving on that front.

Operator

Your next question from the line of Matthew Key of Texas Capital.

Matthew Key

I wanted to talk about just the progress being made on the ground in Oklahoma. Was the community debate around the project mostly tied to concerns around fluoride emissions? Or were there any other potential areas of concern around the project? And just I'm trying to get a sense if there's any risk, kind of, in your view that areas where this could be potentially dragged out from a permitting standpoint? Or do you think you're essentially dealing with it effectively, kind of, over the last couple of months?

Jesse Gary

Yes. That's a good question. And obviously, when you're dealing with both regulators and community members folks, there are a variety of issues and concerns that are out there. And we've been trying to address those as responsibly as we can. So that involves everything from the voluntary cutback in our fluoride emissions, like I mentioned in my prepared remarks, to holding town halls and addressing questions one-on-one with community members who come. I will say that we continue to have very, very strong support from the state and federal levels and really good communications with the regulators in Oklahoma as we try to continue to push forward and address the concerns that have come up. So I'd say we're making good progress. We're trying to address and answer questions as they come up and keep the project on track and moving forward.

Matthew Key

Got it. That's very helpful. And I wanted to ask about the import ARB opportunity. Once you make a final -- like an FID in Oklahoma, how soon could you take advantage of that program? And how does the application process work there?

Jesse Gary

Yes. So we're engaged -- actively engaged with the Department of Commerce on all of those details with really good back and forth as we -- just the exact mechanics of how that will work are ironed out. I'd say we're making very good progress, very aligned with the Department of Commerce on that, and they've been very helpful in moving that forward. So I fully expect that we'll be able to take advantage of that program very quickly, if not coincident with FID.

Operator

Your next question from the line of Katja Jancic of BMO Capital Markets.

Katja Jancic

I think you previously talked about having or looking at several promising financing options for the Oklahoma smelter. What's the status of that? And then does the midterm election change the opportunity set in any way?

Jesse Gary

On the first part of your question, Katja, we continue, as I said in my remarks, to move that financing along, and we're making very good progress. I think pretty much all the material terms have been agreed there and should be -- we fully expect it to be ready to go once we make and reach FID. So I really don't see any issues on the financing side. I continue to believe it will be a very attractive financing package. We're really excited about it.

On your second question on the midterms, I mean we're a couple of days in here. So we'll have to see exactly what the new Congress looks to move from a legislative perspective. But what I would just say more generally is that broadly speaking, reindustrialization of U.S. manufacturing is really one of the few bipartisan issues out there. And we've received a lot of support both through Democratic Congress, Republican Congress and with the current administration on this project. So we'd expect, no matter what happens to continue to have that, sort of, broad-based support across the aisle.

Operator

Your next question from the line of Richard Garchitorena of Barclays.

Richard Garchitorena

First question, I just want to ask on the guidance for 4Q EBITDA. Just on the production side, I think you mentioned Mt. Holly should improve versus third quarter. There was some instability, I guess, did that impact 3Q volumes? And also related to that, Grundartangi Line 2 running near full production. Is that going to be at 100% in the fourth quarter as well in your assumptions?

Peter Trpkovski

Yes. Richard, thanks for your question. As we talked about the instability at Mt. Holly, that was resolved in the third quarter. So that's in the results. And if you think about what we said in our remarks, how that was resolved in the third quarter, and we're going to spend the time in the fourth quarter to bring the volume back to full production. You'll see the impact of those units coming online throughout the fourth quarter. And that estimate of those units is in our Q4 outlook. So no further adjustments there. And I do recall you asked about Line 2 at Grundartangi. For Grundartangi, what we've done is we have adjusted back the losses from the business interruption in the prior quarter. So really, from an outlook perspective, there's no further adjustments required as well for Iceland.

Jesse Gary

And just to piggyback on that, Richard, you will see us, and I said this in my remarks, start to ramp that amperage back up in Q1. So there are additional on the units to come starting in Q1 as we bring that back up. And then you'll also have in Q1 the full benefit of the Mt. Holly tons being back on that we're ramping up over Q4.

Richard Garchitorena

Okay. Great. And then maybe if I could follow up on Oklahoma. -- nearing completion, I think, is what you've characterized the contract discussions on the power and also on the financing. In terms of the current environment there, is there anything that would potentially delay or slow down the process? Or can you, sort of, move forward with the financing power contracts? So those are separate discussions from what you're doing with the community and that type of thing.

Jesse Gary

Yes. That's a good question, Richard. Obviously, what we will seek to do is to line up all of those work streams really at once so that we have all the information and all the parts of the project ready to go when we make that final investment decision. And to do that, while we're working to address the community concerns and working with the regulators on the permitting -- we're also continuing to work on the engineering, and we're fully allowed to do all those, sort of, preconstruction activities that we need to do for the site during this period. So we're really moving forward on all fronts, and the idea will be to align those all at once. So we have all the information we need to make that final investment decision.

Operator

Your next question from the line of John Tumazos of Very Independent Research.

John Tumazos

I calculated a $0.33 a pound cost improvement over the last 2 quarters, after the costs had risen $0.60 the 3 quarters prior to March 31. With the improvements continuing at 3 of the 4 locations, except for Sebree, should we expect all those costs to come back in the December and the March quarters?

Jesse Gary

No. A lot of what you're seeing, John, is the benefit of returning the smelters to full production level. You're seeing fixed cost absorption, more efficient power usage, more efficient labor usage. And so this cost structure you're seeing now and really probably a little bit more improvement to come should continue into 2027 and beyond.

John Tumazos

If I could ask one more?

Jesse Gary

Sure.

John Tumazos

Business is good. Maybe the cash goes up almost as much in the December quarter. Maybe you don't need all of the financing, you only need half of it. Why pay the fees and borrow the money when you're doing so good and you have the money?

Jesse Gary

That's a good question, John. We always want to have the most efficient capital structure that we have. We do think the financing arrangements we're looking at are very, very attractive rates and structure. And so -- but of course, when we reach FID there, we will make that decision. But I would expect, given what we know about the financing today, both in terms of cost, rates and structure, you'll see us look to fully utilize that.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time.

Jesse Gary

Thank you very much for everyone for joining the call. We may have one late-breaking question here from Timna. I would like to give her a chance if we can.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners of Wells Fargo.

Timna Tanners

It's pretty remarkable after all these years to see net cash. So I have to follow up on some of the earlier questions. I heard you mention that you would update us in the future about potential additional shareholder returns and projects. I thought in the past, you've talked about pretty modest projects like at Jamalco, but is there anything that could be more material? And along the cash uses again, at this pace, I mean, could you not have your hand forced to think about some other use in the next couple of quarters because it is piling up so nicely?

Jesse Gary

Yes. Timna, you're right. It's a very good problem to have. We're excited to have it. I mean we're proud of where the business has come and proud of what the team has accomplished. So I do think, and as I said, we will continue to look at what the best use of that cash is. You're right that we have previously said that there are not a lot of projects that look like Mt. Holly restart available to us. There are some projects at Jamalco on the cost side.

But as you might imagine, we continue to try to generate new ideas and new projects and new ways to improve the business as we move forward. So we're really just allowing room for that to happen. The teams are always working hard on that, and they'll continue to. Absent that, should conditions continue like this, we do think we'll be in a very good spot both to be able to fund our share of the Oklahoma project and to fund either additional good projects or shareholder returns.

Timna Tanners

Okay. And I wanted to follow up on -- since the last time that we had this opportunity to catch up on a conference call, we have seen the progress on potential trade agreements with Canada and Mexico in this case. Canada, there was some chatter of a potential carve-out on the aluminum and steel tariffs, and that, kind of, flew in the face of what we had thought could happen. And I'm curious with your connections to the administration, if you have any further insights on how they're thinking about aluminum tariffs in particular with Canada.

Jesse Gary

Good question. I can't speak directly to the negotiations, of course, as I've not been involved. But what I can say is the government clearly understands that the Section 232 program is working as it was designed. I mean, just since the program and the President's term, we've seen Mt. Holly restart, which increased U.S. production by 10%. The restart of the New Madrid smelter in Missouri should be restarting imminently, which should increase U.S. production by another 10%. And then, of course, we continue to get closer to FID for our Oklahoma smelter project that will double U.S. capacity.

So I think the administration is very clear that the government is working as it stands and as it's designed and delivering the desired outcome, which is reindustrialization and becoming self-sufficient in terms of U.S. aluminum production. And they've been very consistent. I mean there's been a lot of chatter, as you say, but there really have been no changes. The program continues to be in place with no exemptions and no exceptions. So that's, sort of, where we think things go, Timna. And of course, we listen and watch, but we're quite confident the government understands and is pleased with the progress the industry is making.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jesse Gary for closing remarks.

Jesse Gary

Okay. Thanks, everyone, for joining, and we look forward to talking to you in February.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.