레모네이드(LMND) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표: 매출 73% 성장 및 긍정적인 4분기 EBITDA 전망

핵심 요약

• 유효계약 보험료(IFP)는 전년 동기 대비 34% 증가한 15억 5,000만 달러를 기록해 레모네이드의 12개 분기 연속 성장 가속화 흐름을 이어갔다.
• 매출은 73% 증가한 3억 3,600만 달러를 기록했으며, 매출총이익은 48% 늘어나 사상 최대인 1억 1,800만 달러에 달했다. 조정 매출총이익은 49% 증가한 1억 2,100만 달러를 기록했다.
• 조정 EBITDA 손실은 2,600만 달러에서 2,000만 달러로 축소됐다. 조정 잉여현금흐름은 2,700만 달러로 6개 분기 연속 흑자를 유지했다.
• 레모네이드 자동차 보험(Lemonade Car) IFP는 전년 동기 대비 63% 증가했다. 해당 상품은 현재 미국 인구의 절반 이상을 포괄하는 14개 주에서 이용할 수 있다.
• 경영진은 2026년 4분기에 500만~900만 달러의 조정 EBITDA 흑자를 달성하고, 2027년에는 연간 기준 조정 EBITDA 흑자를 달성하겠다는 전망을 재확인했다.
• 연초 이후 교차 판매액은 1억 달러를 넘어섰으며 전체 IFP 성장률의 약 2배 속도로 성장했다. 결합 보험 상품은 전체 IFP의 20%에 육박했다.

주요 재무 데이터

고객 수 23% 증가와 고객당 보험료 9% 상승이 IFP 성장을 견인했다. 레모네이드의 분기 말 임직원 수는 전 분기 대비 18명 감소한 1,321명으로 집계됐다. 이는 지난 4년 동안 보험료 기반이 거의 세 배로 확대되었음에도 불구하고 4년 전 인력 수준을 밑도는 수치다.

사업 및 운영 성과

자동차 보험이 성장 견인

레모네이드 자동차 보험 IFP는 다이렉트 채널을 통한 사상 최대 신계약과 기존 고객 대상 판매 호조에 힘입어 전년 동기 대비 63% 증가했다. 최근 미주리, 플로리다, 펜실베이니아주 출시로 서비스 제공 지역이 14개 주로 확대됐다.

공시된 자동차 보험 손해율은 약 63%였다. 과거 기간 손해액의 유리한 진전을 제외하면 손해율이 70%대 초중반 수준을 나타내고 있다고 경영진은 밝혔다. 신계약 손해율은 갱신 계약보다 여전히 다소 높았으나, 사고 발생 빈도와 심도는 대체로 예상치에 부합하는 수준으로 설명됐다.

레모네이드의 자율주행차 보험 상품은 6개 주로 확대됐다. 테슬라 소유자의 가입 전환율은 일반 자동차 상품의 약 2.2배에 달했다. 회사는 구체적인 내용을 밝히지는 않았으나 테슬라 외에도 다수의 주요 완성차 업체와 활발한 협력 관계를 유지하고 있다고 덧붙였다.

교차 판매의 중요성 증대

기존 레모네이드 고객을 대상으로 한 연초 이후 교차 판매액은 1억 달러를 넘어섰으며 전체 IFP 성장 속도의 약 2배로 증가했다. 경영진은 이러한 판매의 경우 추가적인 고객 획득 비용이 거의 들지 않는다고 설명했다.

교차 판매는 기존 고객 집단 내 침투율 심화와 신규 주에서의 상품 출시에 힘입어 수혜를 보고 있다. 분기 말 기준 결합 상품 비중은 전체 IFP의 20%에 육박했다.

지역적 확장 가속화

레모네이드는 2026년 한 해 동안 25개의 신규 '상품-지역' 조합을 출시했다. 세입자 보험 상품은 미국 전역에서 이용할 수 있게 되었으며, 이에 따라 부동산 관리 회사를 비롯해 전미 50개 주 전체를 포괄하는 보험을 필요로 하는 파트너사들과의 제휴 기회가 확대될 가능성이 있다.

경영진은 레모네이드 OS 자동화 지원에 힘입어 2026년 전사적인 상품 출시 속도가 이전 연도보다 약 7배 빨라졌다고 밝혔다.

AI 및 영업 레버리지

경영진은 레모네이드 OS와 AI 네이티브 아키텍처가 생산성 향상, 상품 출시, 향후 유통의 핵심이라고 강조했다. 회사는 외부 개인용 AI 에이전트 연동을 지원할 계획이지만, 경영진은 이 채널이 아직 유의미한 계약 규모를 창출하지는 못하고 있다고 덧붙였다.

손해액 및 손해조사비(LAE)를 제외한 영업비용은 전년 동기 대비 36%, 전 분기 대비 1,000만 달러 증가했다. 성장 투자 비용 증가분과 이자비용을 제외하면 비용은 약 16% 늘었다. 레모네이드는 영업·마케팅 투자 증가에도 불구하고 LTV 대비 CAC 비율을 3:1 이상으로 유지했다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진의 현 전망치는 가이던스 범위 상단 기준으로 다음과 같다:

• 2026년 4분기 및 연간 IFP 성장률 33%
• 4분기 매출 성장률 약 52%
• 2026년 연간 매출 성장률 약 67%
• 4분기 조정 EBITDA 500만~900만 달러 흑자
• 2027년 연간 조정 EBITDA 흑자

경영진은 2026년 4분기부터 성장 투자 지출 증가세가 크게 둔화될 것으로 예상했으나, 2027년 절대적인 성장 투자 지출은 증가할 것으로 내다봤다. 회사는 특히 자동차 보험 등 높은 수익률이 기대되는 성장 기회에 지속적으로 투자를 집중하고 있다고 밝혔다.

2027년 2분기 경영진 주식 보상 관련 기저 효과가 소멸하면 주식 기준 보상은 전년 대비 비용 증가 요인으로 남지 않을 것으로 예상된다. 아울러 하노버 리(Hannover Re)와의 신규 계약에 따른 비용 절감 등으로 인해 이자비용 증가세도 점차 완화될 전망이다.

리스크 및 주요 점검 사항

• 반려동물 보험은 동물병원 진료비 상승에 직면해 있다. 레모네이드는 보험료율 인상을 시행하고 있으나, 경영진은 그 효과가 재무 실적에 반영되기까지 수 개 분기가 걸릴 것이라고 설명했다.
• 매출 가이던스 상향에도 불구하고 4분기 또는 연간 조정 EBITDA 가이던스가 상향되지 못한 주된 요인은 반려동물 보험 손해율이었다.
• 유럽 지역의 3분기 손해율은 대형 자연재해 및 고액 손실이 29%포인트를 차지하며 높은 수준을 기록했다. 회사는 기저 언더라이팅 마진을 개선하기 위해 타깃 보험료율 조정을 추진하고 있다.
• 조정 EBITDA가 개선되었음에도 불구하고 전년 동기 대비 순손실이 확대된 것은 주로 주식 기준 보상과 이자비용 증가에 기인한다.
• 자동차 보험의 빠른 성장과 선별적인 경쟁력 있는 가격 책정을 포함한 사업 포트폴리오 구성의 변화로 인해 전반적인 손해율이 소폭 상승할 수 있다. 경영진은 손해율 수치 자체만을 단독으로 관리하기보다 매출총이익 금액의 극대화에 초점을 맞추고 있다고 강조했다.

애널리스트 질의응답(Q&A) 주요 내용

수익성 대 성장: 경영진은 4분기에 수익성이 눈에 띄게 개선되던 과거 패턴이 지속될 것으로 보고 있다. 레모네이드는 2027년 연간 조정 EBITDA 흑자를 목표로 하면서, 추가 확보 여력을 고수익 성장 분야에 재투자할 계획이다.

반려동물 보험 부담: 동물병원 진료비 상승이 반려동물 보험 손해율을 높이고 있다. 포트폴리오 전반에 걸쳐 보험료율 인상이 반영되고 있으며, 경영진은 향후 몇 분기에 걸쳐 손해율이 점차 안정될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

개인용 AI 에이전트: 경영진은 아직 개인용 에이전트를 통한 유의미한 계약 규모를 확인하지 못했으나, 에이전트 간(Agent-to-Agent) 보험 유통이 잠재적으로 중대한 전략적 변화가 될 것으로 평가했다. 세부 사항은 11월 17일 레모네이드 투자자의 날(Investor Day)에서 발표될 예정이다.

전국 세입자 보험 파트너십: 미국 전역에서 이용이 가능해짐에 따라 전미 단위 보장을 요구하는 대형 파트너사들과의 제약 요인이 해소됐다. 경영진은 파트너십 기회가 단기간에 급변하기보다는 점진적으로 확대될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

비용 추이: 일반관리비(G&A) 증가는 주로 이자비용, 주식 기준 보상 및 전년도의 일회성 이익 소멸에 기인했다. 경영진은 2027년 2분기 이후 일반관리비의 전년 대비 증가세가 크게 둔화될 것으로 내다봤다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Lemonade Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to the Lemonade team. Please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Good morning, and welcome to Lemonade's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining us on our call today, we have Daniel Schreiber, CEO and Co-Founder; Shai Wininger, President and Co-Founder; Tim Bixby, Chief Financial Officer; and Nick Stead, SVP, Finance. A letter to shareholders covering the company's third quarter 2026 financial results is available on our Investor Relations website at lemonade.com/investor.

I would like to remind you that management's remarks made on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K filed with the SEC and our more recent filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow and adjusted gross profit, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance.

Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our letter to shareholders. Our letter to shareholders also includes information about our key performance indicators, including number of customers, in-force premium, premium per customer, annual dollar retention, gross earned premium, gross loss ratio, gross loss ratio ex-CAT, trailing 12-month loss ratio and net loss ratio and a definition of each metric, why each is useful to investors and how we use each to monitor and manage our business.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Daniel for some opening remarks.

Daniel Schreiber

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to review Lemonade's results for Q3 2026. This was another excellent quarter, marked by accelerating growth, healthy underwriting performance and continued progress towards profitability. In-force premium reached $1.55 billion, growing 34% year-on-year and extending our streak of accelerating growth to 12 consecutive quarters. Revenue grew faster still, increasing 73% to $336 million, while gross profit increased 48% to a record $118 million. We are particularly encouraged by the growth momentum in our car business. IFP grew 63% year-over-year, and we saw record levels of new business across both our direct channels and sales to existing Lemonade customers. At the same time, underwriting performance continues to be healthy and broadly in line with our expectations.

On the bottom line, adjusted EBITDA loss was $20 million, in line with our expectations, and we remain on track to deliver our first positive adjusted EBITDA quarter in the current quarter and reiterate our expectations that 2027 will be EBITDA positive on an annual basis. We first outlined our expectation of reaching positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4 of 2026 back in 2022. Since then, we've navigated considerable macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty, yet our profitability time line remains unchanged. That is deeply gratifying and indicative of how dependable and predictable our business is. A key driver of this trajectory has been the operating leverage our technology affords us across the business. And I think the clearest illustration of that is our productivity per employee.

We ended the quarter with 1,321 employees, fewer than we employed 4 years ago. Yet over that period, we've nearly tripled our premium base and doubled our customer count. In other words, we're running a business nearly 3x the size with slightly fewer people. That's the compounding benefit of a decade of investment in our proprietary AI platform, and we believe there's considerable more leverage ahead. We're just days away from our Investor Day on November 17 in New York City, where we'll share more about our long-term growth aspirations and the AI capabilities powering our business. I do hope you will tune in.

With that, I'll hand it over to Shai, who will cover a couple of exciting developments across the business. Shai?

Shai Wininger

Thanks, Daniel. One topic we'll dive into more detail at Investor Day is the emergence of personal AI agents, which I believe will fundamentally reshape insurance distribution. We are extremely excited about this long-awaited opportunity to open Lemonade OS to external agents, letting them serve their user directly just as our team would. Customers using personal agents to interact with Lemonade will get instant 24/7 quality service, while we reduce our cost to serve, allowing us to pass more savings back to them. You can read more about our upcoming Lemonade OS update with native support for personal agents at lemonade.com/agentic.

I also want to touch on 2 areas where Lemonade OS supercharged our progress, geographic expansion and autonomous car. First, geographic expansion. 2026 has been a year of accelerated growth on the map with 25 new product geography combinations launched this year alone. Lemonade OS brings levels of automation and sophistication that transform non-engineering tasks that used to take weeks into hours, allowing our team to launch products and enter new markets with increasing speed and less incremental overhead. And I'm pleased to note that we reached a major milestone earlier this week, nationwide availability for our renters product, the first in our portfolio to achieve that with more to come.

We've also seen faster geographic growth in our car business following recent launches in Missouri, Florida and Pennsylvania. Lemonade car is now available in 14 states, covering more than half of the U.S. population. Our car business is also getting better with healthier cohorts, more competitive pricing, new features and exceptional customer service. This is a complex expansion that requires our team to grow and improve the product at the same time. I expect our car expansion to pick up even more speed in the coming quarters.

The second area I wanted to highlight is autonomous car, where once again, Lemonade OS is unlocking velocity we couldn't have otherwise achieved. Since launching the product earlier this year, we've already expanded to 6 states. Early results from our autonomous pricing model continue to be encouraging with conversion among Tesla owners roughly 2.2x those we see with our broader car product.

And with that, I'll hand it over to Tim, who will take us through the financial performance and outlook in more detail. Tim?

Timothy Bixby

Thanks, Shai. Let's start with Q3 results, which were excellent. In-force premium grew 34% year-on-year to $1.55 billion, driven by customer growth of 23% and premium per customer growth of 9%. We added roughly 212,000 new customers in Q3, 20% greater than the roughly 177,000 customers added in the prior year quarter. Within our reported gross loss ratio of 65%, our favorable prior period development of about 2% was driven primarily by our car and renters products. On a net basis, we also saw 2 points of favorable prior period development.

The vast majority of development was not cat related, both on a gross and net basis. Prior year development, which we report on a net basis, was $4 million favorable in Q3 and about $20 million favorable year-to-date. Gross profit increased 48% to $118 million, while adjusted gross profit increased 49% to $121 million for a gross margin and an adjusted gross margin of 35% and 36%, respectively. These metrics use revenue as the denominator. Adjusted gross profit as compared to gross earned premium was 33% in Q3, up 4 points from 29% in the prior year.

Revenue grew 73% to $336 million, while our adjusted EBITDA loss improved about 20% to a loss of $20 million. Notably, revenue grew about 40 percentage points faster than IFP due to dynamics related to our sustained trend of increased premium retention at our reinsurance renewals in recent years. Importantly, adjusted free cash flow was positive for the sixth consecutive quarter at $27 million, while operating cash flow was also positive at $7 million. We ended the quarter with roughly $1.2 billion in cash and investments, of which about $350 million is required to be held as regulatory surplus.

Annual dollar retention, or ADR, increased by 1 percentage point sequentially to 86%. Operating expenses, excluding loss and loss adjustment expense, increased by $51 million or 36% in Q3 as compared to the prior year and by $10 million sequentially compared to Q2. Minus the increase in growth spend and interest expense, expenses were up about 16%. One additional logistical note. We currently have a standard S-3 Registration on file known as a shelf registration, which has a fairly typical 3-year expiration date or term. Ours expires next week. So we plan to renew that shelf with an updated S-3 filing shortly. This is a valuable tool to have at hand as a public company. I will note that we have no immediate plans to utilize it.

And I'll hand it off to Nick, who will take us through some growth and expense drivers in a bit more detail in addition to our guidance. Nick?

Nicholas Stead

Thanks, Tim. I wanted to first highlight a notable growth driver in Q3. Sales to existing Lemonade customers known as cross-sales are becoming an increasingly significant contributor to our overall growth. Year-to-date, we surpassed $100 million in cross-sales, which are growing at twice our IFP growth rate. And we see significant opportunity to drive further IFP growth from our existing customer base over time.

Turning to operating expenses. We continue to see great leverage across our cost structure. While year-over-year comparisons are impacted by certain Q2 expense increases, the sequential comparison provides a clear picture of our underlying expense trajectory. From Q2 to Q3, operating expenses increased by $10 million, and that was attributable to increases in growth spend, related interest expense and other insurance expense. Stock-based compensation was down slightly sequentially and headcount also modestly declined, down by 18 to 1,321. Year-over-year, operating expenses grew by 36%. That was driven by a handful of identifiable factors, most of which we expect to moderate going forward.

Let me briefly unpack the drivers and individual line items. Other insurance expense grew $5 million or 21% compared to 33% growth in gross earned premium. Recall that this line item is largely variable in nature, and it is generally expected to grow at rates not materially different from the top line. Sales and marketing grew by $25 million or 44%, and that was driven by increased growth spend. Alongside that increase, we maintained strong LTV to CAC ratios above 3:1. Technology development expense grew 18%, primarily due to increased stock-based compensation expense and G&A grew by 45%, primarily due to increased stock-based compensation, interest expense and the absence of prior year one-time benefits in the current quarter.

I want to share some thoughts on how we expect these expense growth drivers to impact future results. First, growth spend. We touched on this in the last quarter's shareholder letter, but the growth rate of growth spend is expected to slow significantly in Q4 2026 and onwards. Second, stock-based compensation expense. We don't expect this to be a driver of year-over-year expense growth beginning in Q2 2027 once we lap those executive awards from earlier this year. Third, interest expense growth should moderate over time, benefiting from the reduced cost of our new Hannover Re agreement. And lastly, other insurance expense, which includes those variable costs will continue to grow. So taken together, these insights and drivers reinforce our confidence in continued operating leverage and expanding profitability.

Turning to the bottom line. Net loss was $44 million or $0.56 per share compared to $38 million or $0.51 per share last year. Adjusted EBITDA loss improved to a loss of $20 million from $26 million last year. The divergence in year-over-year performance between the 2 measures largely reflects the increases in stock-based compensation and interest expense.

Let's now look ahead to our guidance for Q4 and full year 2026. We include this in our shareholder letter and our current view represents 33% Q4 and full year IFP growth at the high end of our guidance range, roughly 52% Q4 revenue growth and 67% full year 2026 revenue growth and positive adjusted EBITDA of $5 million to $9 million in the fourth quarter.

With that, I would like to pass it over to Shai to answer some questions from our retail investors.

Shai Wininger

Thanks, Nick. We'll now turn to our shareholders' questions. There were a number of questions around the pace of geo expansion and whether we expect to see the pace of car state rollout accelerate similar to the surge of renters launches in the past few months.

So a few thoughts on this. As a reminder, we launched 3 new car states in the past 90 days, Florida, Missouri and Pennsylvania. So far, in 2026, our launch pace across the business is about 7x faster than in prior years. So we're really seeing the Lemonade OS acceleration take effect. Also, we're not facing a TAM constraint. The states we're live in represent more than half the market, a TAM well north of $100 billion. Our car growth is not constrained by geographical expansion. That said, I expect us to offer all of our products in all 50 states, just as we now do for renters. And I also expect our team to continue and shorten the cycle time to build and launch a new car state.

We got questions about our autonomous product, specifically whether we are working with any autonomous driving or fleet partner in addition to Tesla.

I'm unable to share much about this right now, but I will say that we have multiple active relationships with major carmakers beyond Tesla and expect to see more brands become available in the Lemonade autonomous car product over time.

Lastly, we've gotten some questions about AI in our industry, specifically how our AI native architecture becomes a durable advantage and not just efficiency gains that competitors can copy.

I actually think our advantage is growing in the Agentic era. There is a common misconception here. As individuals, you can install Claude or ChatGPT in minutes. And having that kind of intelligence in your pocket, the value is obvious. Scroll through X, and it looks like everyone is building swarms of agents to run their businesses. But inside large organizations, it's very, very different. Most incumbents run on layers of legacy systems. Many of them were designed before the Internet. They don't build their own core systems. They rely on vendors to innovate for them, and most of their policies aren't sold digitally. So they don't have the data or the signals or the context that AI needs to be truly useful. And driving this kind of change takes a culture and a team that were built for it from day 1. And that's what Lemonade and Lemonade OS is all about.

It was designed from the ground up for autonomous operation. AI agents doing the work, not AI bolted on top of systems built for humans and everything runs on top of deep context. Every quote, every policy, every claim, every customer interaction has been digital from day 1. So our agents don't just see a task, they see the full picture, who the customer is, their history, their risk profile and how every part of the business connects. That context is what makes autonomy actually work. And it compounds. Better claims data leads to more accurate pricing, better pricing helps us grow profitably and that growth gives us more data and even deeper context. And because it's one system that we built and we own, we can open it up directly to personal AI agents. That's extremely hard to do on top of decades of legacy infrastructure. So that's what makes the advantage durable.

Competitors can use the same AI models. They can automate individual tasks, but AI is only as good as the context it runs on. And a connected system built for autonomy over a decade isn't something you can buy or bolt on. We believe that advantage compounds over time. It lets us move faster, price more competitively and win a growing share of the market. And if that's a question that interests you, I strongly encourage you to tune into our Investor Day on November 17.

With that, I'll pass it over to the moderator, and we will take some questions from the Street.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein from Oppenheimer.

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Jason Helfstein

Don't want to steal your thunder before the upcoming Analyst Day, but I appreciate the kind of color on how to think about expenses. I mean, look, I think there's a big question on we're at an inflection point with profitability for the business, kind of given your comment about slowing marketing, can you give us some hint of how we should think about maybe EBITDA pacing as we move into next year and how you're thinking about balancing kind of EBITDA relative to what are obviously some of the exciting growth drivers around car and other areas?

Timothy Bixby

Sure. I'll take that, Jason. I think a couple of ways to think about it. History is always a good guide for the future for Lemonade. So I think that trend will continue. There's a couple of things that typically drive the balance between growth and profitability and also over the course of quarters and how that flows. And so I think for a few years now, including this year, you'll see a pattern where there's a pretty consistent theme in the bottom line trajectory in the first 3 quarters of the year and then a really nice and notable step change in Q4, and that's a common theme. We expect to see it this year. It's likely to continue going forward.

And so when we come in February and give guidance for next year, it's pretty likely you'll see a similar pattern. And so when we indicate that we expect to be EBITDA positive in Q4, as we do, and EBITDA positive for the full year next year, that pattern will likely be consistent. And our growth spend will likely follow that. We've got a real benefit embedded in the business now where we can grow at a quite healthy rate with significantly slowing growth rate in growth spend. So we're spending more growth dollars for sure, but that growth rate is declining quite rapidly. And so we'll see absolute dollars in terms of gross spend increase next year. We are keeping a close eye on the balance of growth and profitability. It's been 4 years now when we've been talking about this Q4 EBITDA positive coming.

And with that kind of visibility, I would expect that theme to continue into next year. Our bias is always growth. When an extra $1 or $1 million or $5 million becomes apparent in the forward model, we tend to invest that in high ROI, high LTV to CAC growth. More often than not at the moment, that is car, and you saw that in the car growth rate year-on-year. You've seen that for a number of quarters. So I would expect all those themes to continue.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Lee from Morgan Stanley.

Daniel Lee

For guidance, you guys raised the full year revenue range by $16 million, but kept the full year adjusted EBITDA range unchanged. Could you talk about the drivers behind your $5 million to $9 million EBITDA guide for 4Q? Are you guys expecting maybe incrementally higher growth spend or other operating expenses in the fourth quarter?

Nicholas Stead

Thanks, Daniel. Happy to take that one. Yes, you're right. Revenue guidance is up and adjusted EBITDA guide for the fourth quarter and full year is stable. And the primary driver of that is related to our pet loss ratio. We're seeing a modest headwind, and you can see that in the sequential pacing of the pet loss ratio. And I'd note the pet loss ratio is largely under control. We're taking rate through the system to offset the dynamics that we're seeing, and that will flow through the financials in upcoming periods. And as a result, that loss ratio is expected to moderate over time. But that's the primary reason I'd note for that dynamic where you're seeing revenue up, but the adjusted EBITDA guide roughly stable.

Now I also wanted to say, notwithstanding that pet loss ratio factor, we continue to deliver a guidance of 33% IFP growth and positive adjusted EBITDA guidance. And so pet is 40% of our business, not 100% of our business, and that paints the picture of the resilience of our growth due to the benefits of diversification.

Daniel Lee

Got it. For my follow-up, I wanted to -- I know you'll probably -- you guys will probably provide more details on personal agents during Investor Day, but I'm curious, are you guys seeing any volume from personal agents like new today? And maybe could you talk a little bit -- I know it's early, but could you talk a little bit about the net impact from agentic for Lemonade's book of business over the next few years?

Daniel Schreiber

Daniel, yes, it is something -- it's the other Daniel here. It is something that we're going to discuss at our Investor Day, and Shai referenced it in his earlier answers as well. We're not seeing it yet in the volumes, but we are seeing it in significant ways. And we actually think this is something of a game changer for the industry and in a way that is very favorable to Lemonade.

I'll touch on a couple of things that I'll develop in our meeting in 10 days' time. But -- it starts with the fact that Lemonade has managed to automate so much. We've had our AI Maya since for 10 years now selling policies and AI Jim paying claims, and we've been working with a framework of a centralized unified system with orbit -- an orbit of agents around it really for a very, very long time. And the one human in the loop that we were never able to overcome is the consumer, of course. And now the consumer is getting their own stand-in, and suddenly the entire system becomes agentic. And for us, that's a very, very big deal. It means that we can move at paces that were not possible hitherto. And it also means that the kind of behaviors that we're seeing from personal agents -- they file much more rigorous and lengthy documents, and they can really produce something of a tsunami of well-reasoned legalistic kind of appeals.

It's the kind of stuff that we handle very comfortably because we've got our agents talking to your agents. But I think that's going to become an increasing -- is becoming an increasing issue for incumbents who are used to a more human-to-human contact. But honestly, beyond all of that tactical stuff, strategically, this is a big shift. The entire industry is predicated on the kind of brand advertising that depends deeply on a human at the other end who can come under the sway of a quirky, accented gecko or a quirky brunette called Flo or a guy called Doug who has an [ emu ] for pets. And all those kinds of things lose all of that impact the second you're talking to a personal agent. They've got nice muses, a nice fairy icon, but these are rational agents that are just oblivious to the very moat upon which the entire industry has built itself. So I think there are strategic shifts there of tremendous importance, and I'll develop that theme a bit more in the Investor Day.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt from KBW.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

A question on the renters business there. Now that you're in all 50 states, you talked about the possibility of potentially unlocking partnerships now that you are nationwide. What would be an example of that? Is that with property management companies? Would that be an embedded referral system where you would pay a commission or a referral fee to the partners for sourcing that business? What did you mean by that partnership comment?

Timothy Bixby

Yes. So I would think of that as more of the same, but even more so. And what I mean is there are a tier of folks who are potential great partners who have broad reach, are a really nice fit for an effective renters product that just have a nationwide requirement. And so there's a bit of a ceiling that we've dealt with for a very long time. We've had a great number of excellent partners all along the way. Our bias, of course, is direct-to-consumer, but we've always had a nice -- really nice stable of effective partners in probably 4 or 5 different verticals and property management is certainly near the top of the list.

But this kind of opens up a broader world of more established players with perhaps a more rigorous requirement that would be nationwide. So I would think of it as not so much a light switch shift, but a consistent improvement and expansion over time and our ability to reach into these great partners. So we're -- the head of our renters team and the company is really focused on that. So you'll see that in the coming quarters.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

Okay. Got it. And then you had some interesting comments on your cross-sell growth trends that you're seeing. What portion of your incremental cross-sales are because you now have a new product live in a state like, for instance, expanding car into more states? Is that driving the majority of cross-sales? Or are there still cross-sales happening where people are coming around to getting a pet policy where they've already had a renters policy, but it's already been available in that state for a number of years?

Nicholas Stead

Tommy, I think I'd note it's really coming from both places. And cross-sales in particular, are performing very well. The growth rate of cross-sales currently is roughly double that of total in-force premium. And we're -- we expect that to continue to be an increasingly significant driver of growth over time. And I'd really call out both of those dynamics. We're continuing to expand penetration within our existing cohorts. But then certainly, when we launch a new state, we do see a spike in cross-sales as a result of that.

Thomas Mcjoynt-Griffith

And just actually last quick one. What's the percentage of your IFP or number of customers that have more than one product? And I guess, should I think of all of those as part of your cross-sale definition?

Nicholas Stead

The percentage of total in-force premium that is bundled at the end of the quarter is fast approaching 20% and has been improving steadily over time. The percentage of customers who have more than one policy is also interesting. But for us, there's a dynamic where we have over 2 million renters customers and for a meaningful portion of those customers, a bundle isn't an immediate need. And so I instead point to those dollars, which I think are a more helpful measure. You've got, like I said, approaching 20% of total in-force premium. And when you look at the dollars contributed by cross-sales really growing rapidly.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Andersen from Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen

When you describe the newer car cohorts as healthier, which metrics are improving? And how do their loss ratios and retention compare with prior cohorts at a similar maturity?

Nicholas Stead

So when I look at the overall car underwriting performance, let me break that down a bit perhaps. The calendar quarter loss ratio was around 63%, and we did see a meaningful benefit from prior period development within our car line of business. And so outside of that effect, the car loss ratio is trending in the low to mid-70s range. New business continues to have a slightly higher loss ratio than renewal business. But within the overall performance, I'd characterize both frequency and severity for both new and renewal business generally to be trending healthily and in line with our expectations. And that's a notable fact given the sheer pace of growth rate acceleration that we're seeing from an IFP perspective in car.

Andrew Andersen

And maybe just on expenses, even after adjusting for some items like stock comp and one-timers and interest expense -- GC interest expense, it does still look like underlying G&A is increasing at a teens or high teens rate despite the lower headcount. So could you maybe just break down what is driving that underlying increase a bit more and how we should think about the underlying run rate increase into '27?

Nicholas Stead

Within G&A, the primary drivers of expense growth from a year-over-year perspective are interest expense, stock-based compensation expense and a couple of one-timers in the prior year quarter. You're right that it's not perfectly flat outside of those dynamics. But if I point to the sequential change, the growth is notably lower. If I look ahead, I might point to Q2 '27 as an interesting point in time where we lap the impact of the executive awards from earlier in the year. And so the stock-based compensation driver is no longer contributing to year-over-year growth. And from that point onwards, I would expect to see significantly moderating year-over-year growth in G&A.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alejandro Zumbato from BMO.

Michael Zaremski

Mike Zaremski filling in for Alejandro. Just back quickly to the conversation on the pet insurance loss ratio. Maybe you could just kind of give a little bit more color on what's driving that a bit higher and what actions you're going to take? And then maybe you could also just touch on the European gross loss ratio as well and what's -- any color there?

Nicholas Stead

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I can take those. So within our pet line of business, we're impacted by an inflationary macro dynamic that's impacting the entire industry with increasing vet costs, and we're actively taking rate through the system to address that. And so like I think we mentioned earlier, we do expect that pet loss ratio trend to moderate and normalize in the upcoming several quarters. I'll note it takes a few quarters for that to flow through the financials. And maybe hitting Europe for a moment, the loss ratio was elevated in the current quarter. That type of volatility is not entirely unexpected with a book of our size and scale. And I'll note, 29 points within the current quarter results were driven by catastrophes and large losses.

Now with that said, in Europe as well, we are pursuing some targeted rate actions to drive improved underwriting margins on an attritional basis. Now maybe I wanted to -- while we're on the topic of loss ratio -- those are excellent questions, and I -- hopefully, I answered your question on the drivers. On a trailing 12-month basis, our loss ratio is 60% overall. And we view that as a very healthy level relative to our own history and relative to benchmarks. And from here, there are certain drivers across the business, for example, mix shift to car and certain segments where we may lean into competitive pricing, and those drivers may modestly increase the loss ratio over time. We're not solving for loss ratio in isolation, however. We're solving for total gross profit dollar generation. And so I encourage you to continue to focus primarily on gross profit and its growth rate as we continue to grow.

Timothy Bixby

And perhaps importantly, on loss ratio, these are not surprises to us. While it feels -- can often feel better when the number goes down and feel a little worse when the number goes up, that's really not how we view it. We have a view into loss ratio as it develops almost on a real-time basis. We're looking at each month at minimum as we go. And so while reporting a full quarter is interesting because that's the checkpoint, these are not big surprises to us. They've been factored into our guidance. They factor into our forward models.

And in some ways, these modest volatilities in loss ratio and other key KPIs up and down is really the positive factor that indicates that we're growing effectively. We're shifting mix. We're expanding newer products. We're growing car. Europe has gone from a rounding error to a really large and dynamic business. And so these are the kinds of things that you see in the metrics as you go. But if you back up and look at a couple of quarters or a year, these are right on track with our expectations.

Michael Zaremski

Understood. Good color. And just as a quick follow-up on the exciting news about kind of increasing cross-sell. If we were to kind of seek to model that into our models, I think you gave some color earlier, but there's -- is it correct there's not really much incremental customer acquisition cost spend on whatever product is being cross-sold?

Nicholas Stead

Yes, that is a correct assumption. And if you're looking ahead, we remain bullish on our ability to continue to drive cross-sales growth that is notably higher than the overall growth of the top line.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.