웨스트록 커피(WEST) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 사상 최대 EBITDA 및 콘웨이 공장 가동 확대
웨스트록 커피 컴퍼니는 2026년 3분기 연결 조정 EBITDA가 전년 동기 대비 약 14% 증가한 사상 최대 2,640만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 순매출은 관세 환급금 등의 영향으로 15.4% 감소했으나, 추출액 및 RTD 음료 부문의 성장이 이를 뒷받침했다.
콘웨이 공장은 현재 40% 수준인 가동률이 향후 18개월 내에 약 85%까지 상승할 것으로 예상되며, 회사는 2026년 연결 조정 EBITDA 가이던스를 9,000만~1억 달러로 유지했다. 또한 6억 달러 규모의 리파이낸싱을 완료하여 재무 건전성을 확보했다. 경영진은 불규칙한 소비자 수요 등 단기 변수를 주시하고 있다.
웨스트록 커피 컴퍼니(NASDAQ: WEST)는 보고된 매출 감소에도 불구하고 2026년 3분기에 사상 최대 조정 EBITDA를 기록했다고 발표했다. 경영진은 추출액 및 RTD(즉석음료) 음료 부문의 성장, 콘웨이 시설 가동률 상승, 영업 레버리지, 자본적 지출 감소를 실적 개선 요인으로 꼽았다.
핵심 내용
- 3분기 연결 조정 EBITDA는 사상 최대치인 2,640만 달러에 달하며, 이는 전년 동기 대비 약 14% 증가한 수치다. 9개월 누적 조정 EBITDA는 58% 증가한 7,370만 달러를 기록했다.
- 순매출은 15.4% 감소한 약 3억 달러를 기록했으며, 이는 주로 2,600만 달러의 관세 환급금과 생두 가격 전가액 하락, 앞서 논의된 싱글서브 고객 이탈을 반영한 결과다. 관세 환급금을 제외하면 순매출은 약 3억 2,600만 달러에 달했을 것이다.
- 콘웨이 시설은 현재 생산능력의 약 40% 수준으로 가동되고 있다. 경영진은 확정된 프로그램을 통해 가동률이 향후 18개월 동안 약 85%까지 상승할 것이라고 밝혔다.
- 웨스트록 커피는 2026년 조정 EBITDA 가이던스를 9,000만 달러에서 1억 달러로 유지했으며, 현재 추정치는 중간값인 9,500만 달러 부근이다. 2027년 초기 가이던스는 약 1억 3,000만 달러 수준이다.
- 회사는 6억 달러 규모의 리파이낸싱을 완료했다. 이번 리파이낸싱으로 은행 만기가 2031년 10월까지 연장되며, 의무 원리금 상환액은 첫해에 약 1,700만 달러 감소할 것으로 예상된다.
- 3분기 잉여현금흐름은 2개 분기 연속 흑자를 기록했다. 자본적 지출은 880만 달러로 감소해 전년 동기 수준의 절반 미만에 그쳤다.
주요 재무 데이터
| 지표 | 2026년 3분기 | 변동 또는 비교 | 설명 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 연결 순매출 | 약 3억 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 15.4% 감소 | 매출 차감으로 기록된 약 2,600만 달러의 관세 환급금 포함 |
| 관세 환급금을 제외한 순매출 | 약 3억 2,600만 달러 | — | 관련 공급업체 환불로 매출원가가 감소하여 환불이 매출총이익에 미친 영향은 없었음 |
| 연결 매출총이익 | 4,150만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 보합 | 콘웨이 추가 감가상각비 310만 달러 포함 |
| 영업이익 | 320만 달러 | 860만 달러 손실 대비 | 전년 동기 대비 1,180만 달러 개선 |
| 순손실 | 1,000만 달러 | 1,910만 달러 대비 | 거의 50% 축소 |
| 연결 조정 EBITDA | 2,640만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 약 14% 증가 | 역대 최대 분기 실적 |
| 음료 솔루션 조정 EBITDA | 2,330만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 약 14% 증가 | 콘웨이 상업화 및 비용 관리에 힘입음 |
| 지속 가능한 소싱 및 추적성 조정 EBITDA | 320만 달러 | 580만 달러 대비 | 경영진은 감소 원인을 매출 발생 시점으로 설명함 |
| 영업활동 현금흐름 | 990만 달러 | — | 잉여현금흐름 흑자를 뒷받침함 |
| 잉여현금흐름 | 110만 달러 | 2분기 연속 흑자 기록 | 2분기 및 3분기 누적 잉여현금흐름은 약 2,100만 달러를 기록함 |
| 자본적 지출 | 880만 달러 | 1,810만 달러 대비 | 콘웨이의 건설에서 가동 단계로의 전환을 반영함 |
| 담보 순레버리지 비율 | 약 3.1배 | 2분기 3.4배, 전년 동기 4.6배 | 12개월 동안 약 1.5배 감소 |
2026년 첫 9개월 동안 연결 순매출은 8% 증가한 9억 1,500만 달러, 매출총이익은 약 11% 증가한 1억 2,500만 달러. 영업이익은 500만 달러였으며, 이는 영업손실 3,670만 달러를 기록했던 전년 동기와 대비된다.
사업 및 운영 실적
웨스트록 커피의 추출액 및 RTD(즉석음료) 플랫폼의 두 자릿수 성장이 기저 실적을 견인했다. 경영진은 미국의 퀵서비스 레스토랑(패스트푸드점) 및 편의점 고객 유입이 압박을 받는 상황 속에서도 음료 수요는 지속적으로 증가했다고 밝혔다.
콘웨이 공장은 회사의 성장 전략에서 핵심적인 역할을 담당하고 있다. 해당 시설의 가동률은 현재 약 40% 수준이며, 확정된 고객 프로그램에 힘입어 향후 18개월 동안 약 85%까지 상승할 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 이 가동률 수준에 도달하면 콘웨이 공장 단독으로 창출하는 조정 EBITDA가 7,000만 달러를 넘어설 것이라고 밝혔으며, 이는 2025년 회사 전체가 창출한 실적이다.
회사는 또한 추정치 기준 연환산 EBITDA 6,000만 달러 규모의 신규 사업을 확보했다고 밝혔다. 파이프라인 규모 역시 1억 달러를 웃돈다. 싱글서브 부문에서는 계약된 신규 사업이 전년도 손실 사업의 약 3분의 1을 대체했다.
콘웨이 공장은 교차 판매도 뒷받침하고 있다. 신규 고객의 70% 이상이 여러 제품군을 구매했다고 경영진은 전했다. 초여과 고단백 우유 제품에 대한 수요 역시 개발 중인 품목 수를 사상 최대로 끌어올렸다.
영업 레버리지는 지속적으로 개선되었다. 콘웨이 공장의 성장에도 불구하고 영업비용은 전년 대비 사실상 변동이 없었으며, 경영진은 신규 프로그램에서 발생하는 추가 매출총이익의 상당 부분이 EBITDA로 이어질 것으로 예상하고 있다. 또한 3분기는 콘웨이 관련 비용 가산(add-back)이 없었던 첫 분기로, 판관비(SG&A)의 보다 유의미한 기준점이 되었다.
경영진 가이던스
| 전망 | 경영진 가이던스 | 주요 조건 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026년 연결 조정 EBITDA | 9,000만~1억 달러 | 현재 추정치는 중간값인 9,500만 달러 부근이며, 최종 결과는 주로 고객 믹스 결정에 좌우됨 |
| 2026년 자본적 지출 | 약 3,000만 달러 | 2025년 8,900만 달러 및 2024년 1억 6,000만 달러 대비 |
| 2027년 연결 조정 EBITDA | 약 1억 3,000만 달러 | 고객 물량 배정은 2027년 1분기까지 예상되는 결정에 따름 |
| 2027년 자본적 지출 | 3,000만~3,500만 달러 | 고객 약정 이행을 위한 추가 성장 지출 포함 |
경영진은 계약된 여러 프로그램이 2027년 중순 및 하반기에 개시될 것으로 예상하고 있다. 이에 따라 회사는 2027년 말을 기준으로 한 연환산 EBITDA 런레이트가 해당 연도 중 인식된 금액보다 상당히 높은 수준을 기록하며 한 해를 마감할 것으로 전망한다.
장기적으로 경영진은 추가적인 생산 및 포장 투자를 통해 향후 3~5년 동안 콘웨이의 EBITDA 기여도를 다시 2배로 늘릴 수 있다고 보고 있다. 또한 2028년 조정 EBITDA가 약 30%~40% 수준으로 2027년 예상치 대비 성장할 수 있다고 밝혔으나, 고객 일정 및 배정은 여전히 불확실하다는 점을 강조했다.
리파이낸싱 및 재무상태표
웨스트록 커피는 신규 6억 달러 규모의 선순위 담보 1순위 신용공여 계약을 완료했으며, 이는 3억 달러 규모의 텀론과 3억 달러 규모의 리볼빙 대출 약정으로 구성된다. 해당 여신의 만기는 2031년 10월이다. 대주단 약정 총액은 약 7억 3,700만 달러에 달해, 회사는 초기 목표였던 5억 달러에서 거래 규모를 확대할 수 있었다.
리파이낸싱의 일환으로 웨스트록 커피가 재매입한 규모는 4,000만 달러로, 기존 7,200만 달러 규모의 2029년 만기 전환사채 중 일부이며, 약 2,100만 달러의 현금 을 사용하고 약 240만 주를 발행했다. 나머지 3,200만 달러는 2032년 1월 20일로 만기가 연장되었다.
거래 종료 후, 사용 제한 없는 현금 및 미인출 리볼빙 한도는 총 약 2억 7,000만 달러에 달했으며, 이는 약 9,500만 달러였던 9월 30일과 대비된다. 경영진은 단기 우선순위가 자사주 매입 추진보다는 현금 확보와 부채 감축에 있다고 밝혔다.
리스크 및 주시 요인
- 경영진은 4분기로 접어들면서 소비자 수요가 불규칙한 흐름을 보이고 있으며, 특히 연료비 부담이 고객 유입을 압박하는 부문에서 그러하다고 설명했다.
- 식품 및 연료 가격은 경영진이 주시하고 있는 단기 변수로 남아 있다.
- 2026년 EBITDA 실적은 최종 고객 믹스 결정에 부분적으로 좌우되는 한편, 2027년 전망은 고객 물량 배정과 프로그램 출시 시기에 계속 영향을 받는다.
- 경영진이 예상하는 담보부 순레버리지의 일시적 상승 폭은 대략 4분기에 0.5배, 이어서 추가로 2027년 1분기에 0.25~0.5배이며, 이는 연례 직원 성과급 지급과 고객에게 전달된 관세 환급금에 기인한다.
- 최근 잉여현금흐름 중 일부는 운전자본 발생 시점에 따른 수혜를 입었으나 경영진은 이것이 반전될 것으로 예상한다. 유의미한 부채 감축은 2027년 2분기부터 재개될 것으로 전망된다.
- 콘웨이의 개발 파이프라인 확장은 상업화, 생산 및 고객 서비스 전반에 걸친 실행 역량을 요구한다.
애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용
자본 배분: 경영진은 현금 보유와 부채 감축을 우선시할 계획이다. 순레버리지를 높이지 않는 내부 또는 외부의 기회를 검토할 수는 있으나, 단기적으로 자사주 매입에 나설 가능성은 낮다고 밝혔다.
2027년 실적 흐름: 약 1억 3,000만 달러의 조정 EBITDA 전망치에는 2027년 중순 및 하반기에 개시되는 고객 프로그램이 포함되어 있다. 이에 따라 경영진은 연말 기준 연환산 런레이트가 연간 전체 실적을 상회할 것으로 예상한다.
설비투자: 회사가 예상하는 2027년 설비투자(CAPEX) 규모는 3,000만~3,500만 달러 수준이다. 경영진은 현재 사업 계획상 연간 지출이 5,000만~6,000만 달러 수준으로 복귀할 것으로는 예상하지 않는다.
마진: 경영진은 사업 믹스에서 콘웨이의 비중이 확대됨에 따라 매출총이익률이 상승할 것으로 예상한다. 콘웨이 관련 프로그램은 회사의 기존 사업 다수에 비해 더 높은 마진을 제공하는 한편, 제한적인 영업비용 증가는 EBITDA 전환을 뒷받침할 것으로 보인다.
실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문
전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록
경영진 발표
Operator
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 1 1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker, Joanne Arnold, VP of Investor Relations.
Please go ahead.
Operator
Thank you and welcome to Westrock Coffee Company's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. With us are Mr. Scott Ford, co-founder and chief executive officer, and Mr. Chris Pledger, chief financial officer. By now, everyone should have access to the company's third quarter earnings release issued earlier today. This information is available on the investor relations section of Westrock Coffee Company's website at investors. Certain comments made on this call include forward-looking statements which are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs concerning future events and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements.
Please refer to today's press release and other filings with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. Also, discussions during the call use certain non-GAAP financial measures as we describe business performance. The SEC filings, as well as the earnings press release, provide reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. And with that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott Ford, our co-founder and chief executive officer.
Scott Ford
Thank you, Juwan. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I want to focus on three things today, our growth and the operating model behind it. strength of the beverage category and what it says about the investments we've made and the refinancing we've just completed. growth the third quarter was a record quarter for Westrock consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached a record twenty six point four million up about 14% from a year ago and through the nine months it's up about 58% it was our sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBITDA growth and our second straight quarter of positive free cash flow. That is the operating model doing what we built it to do and the credit belongs to our people and the customers who trust us with their brands. Second, the category. Quick service restaurant and convenience store traffic in the U.S. is down this year, yet beverage keeps growing. Operators are building out energy, refreshers, cold coffee, and craft formats because those programs draw traffic and carry some of the best margins on their menus. That is the demand Conway was built to serve, and it is why our extract and ready-to-drink programs kept growing in a soft consumer quarter. Today Conway is running at about 40% of its current capacity and committed programs take it to roughly 85% over the next 18 months.
At that level, Conway alone will generate more than the 70 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA this entire company produced in 2025. As we continue to add production capabilities and packaging equipment over the next three to five years, we believe we can double the EBITDA contribution from Conway yet again. Customers who come for Conway are putting programs in place across the rest of our platform, too. So far this year, we've won new business worth an estimated $60 million of annualized EBITDA, with a pipeline of more than 100 million behind that. And in single serve, we've already contracted enough new business to replace one-third of the business we lost last year. This begins in early 2017. That said, the consumer remains choppy heading into the fourth quarter, especially where fuel costs weigh on traffic. But most of our growth comes from contracted programs coming online, not simply from a rising consumer tide.
Third, the refinancing. Even in a tight financing market, our lenders committed 737 million to a 500 million deal ask, and we were pleased to close our new 600 million upsized facility late last month. It matures in October of 2031, and we are grateful for the confidence and the leadership of Rabobank and several other large institutions that have made this refinancing possible. With construction behind us and capital spending a fraction of what it has been, this was the last ingredient we needed to build a large, profitable business. platform, the people, the customers, and now a balance sheet built for the long term. This brings me to our outlook. For 2026, we continue to expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA between 90 and 100 million, largely dependent on final customer mix decision. Our current estimate is squarely in the middle of this range. At a 95 million year-end level, this critical growth metric would be up 36% over 2025, after being up 48% the prior year.
And building on this, our initial 2027 outlook is for about 130 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, nearly double what we earned in 2025, and up another 35% over the midpoint this year. Regardless of exactly where our 27 number lands, we fully anticipate ending 2027 at a much higher annualized run rate due to the customer programs scheduled to launch later in the year. Beyond that, the growth built into our customer agreements together with our pipeline gives us room to do even better over time. though we are watching fuel and food prices closely in the short term. Sitting here today, balance, we are more optimistic about where we'll land than we are concerned. With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris Pledger, our CFO. Chris?.
Thomas Pledger
Thank you, Scott, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me take you through the quarter in more detail, starting with the P&L, moving to cash flow and the balance sheet, and then ending with the refinancing we just completed on October 21st. Consolidated net sales were approximately 300 million in the third quarter, down 15.4% compared to the third quarter of 2025. Most of that decline reflects factors that are important to separate from the underlying operating performance of the business. The largest driver is approximately 26 million in tariff refunds that we pass through or expect to pass through to our customers, which we record as a reduction of net sales rather than as cost. The corresponding refunds we collected from our vendors reduced cost of goods sold, so there's no gross profit impact. Excluding this item, net sales would have been approximately 326 million.
The balance of the decline reflects lower green coffee prices, which pass through to our customers at cost, and the previously discussed single-serve customer loss. These factors should not mask our strong underlying business performance during the quarter, led by double-digit growth in our ready-to-drink extracts platform. Importantly, although consolidated net sales were lower in the third quarter versus the prior year, through the first nine months of this year, consolidated net sales were 915 million, up 8% compared to the first nine months of 2025. Consolidated gross profit was 41.5 million in the third quarter, flat compared to the prior year. And year-to-date gross profit was 125 million, up approximately 11% from the prior year period. Both periods include incremental depreciation associated with our investment in Conway, 3.1 million in the quarter and 11.4 million year to date. We continue to see significant improvement in our operating profitability.
In the third quarter, we generated operating profit of 3.2 million compared to an operating loss of 8.6 million a year ago. Through the first nine months of the year, operating profit was 5 million, compared with an operating loss of 36.7 million in the prior year period, a swing of 41.7 million over the past year, and our net loss narrowed by almost 50% in the quarter to 10 million from 19.1 million. Another important proof point that our model is working is that despite significant growth at Conway, our operating expense base was essentially flat year over year. This is the operating leverage that we've been building towards. The platform was sized for substantially more volume than it carries today, and the overhead required to run it does not scale with that volume. As Conway continues to bring contracted programs online, we expect a significant portion of that incremental gross profit to flow through to EBITDA. All of this translated into record quarterly consolidated adjusted EBITDA of 26.4 million, up approximately 14% year-over-year.
And through the first nine months of 2026, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was 73.7 million, up 58% over the same period last year. Beginning in the third quarter, we no longer add back Conway's subscale operating costs in calculating beverage solutions segment adjusted EBITDA. Conway has reached a scale at which those costs are properly treated as ordinary operating costs. So this quarter's segment result absorbs costs that were excluded from the prior year comparison. Despite this, we still delivered beverage solutions segment adjusted EBITDA of 23.3 million, an increase of approximately 14% compared to the third quarter of 2025. The performance reflects strength across our underlying flavors, extracts, and ingredients capabilities driven by the continued commercialization of Conway and the benefits of our business optimization and expense management efforts. We've also crossed the utilization level where new business flows largely through to EBITDA.
From here, each new program, whether an existing customer ramping or a new customer onboarding, comes in at a higher incremental margin. Our sustainable sourcing and traceability segment generated segment adjusted EBITDA 3.2 million in the third quarter, compared to 5.8 million in the prior year period. The third quarter comparison reflects sales timing within the year. Year-to-date, segment adjusted EBITDA of 11.6 million is up more than 5% year-over-year and consistent with our expectations for the full year. We generated cash flows from operations of 9.9 million and positive free cash flow, which we define as cash from operations less additions to property, plant, and equipment of 1.1 million during the quarter. This marks our second consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow, bringing cumulative free cash flow over the second and third quarters to approximately 21 million. Part of that resulted from working capital timing we expect to reverse, but improved profitability and lower capital expenditures are fundamentally changing our cash flow profile.
To that point, capital expenditures were approximately 8.8 million during the quarter, less than half of the 18.1 million invested in the third quarter of 2025. Year-to-date, our capital expenditures were 22.4 million compared to 79.9 million in the comparable prior year period. We continue to project approximately 30M of capital expenditures for the full year compared to 89M in 2025 and 160M in 2024. This is the structural inflection point. We've discussed for several quarters as Conway has moved from construction into operation. We also continued to deleverage during the quarter, with secured net leverage at September 30th declining to approximately 3.1 times from 3.4 times at the end of the second quarter and 4.6 times a year ago. Put differently, over the last 12 months, we've reduced secured net leverage by approximately one and a half turns. or roughly one-third, driven by a combination of debt reductions and earnings growth.
Over that period, secured net debt declined approximately 59 million, while credit agreement-adjusted EBITDA increased by approximately 17 million. As previously announced on October 21st, we took another important step in strengthening our financial position with the completion of our new 600 million senior secured first lien credit facilities, consisting of 300 million of term loans and 300 million of revolving commitments, and extending our bank maturities to October 2031. The transaction received approximately 737 million of lender commitments, allowing us to upsize the facility from the targeted 500 million at launch to 600 million at close. We're grateful for the support we received from all of our lending partners. When compared to our prior credit agreement, the new facilities meaningfully reduced our required debt service by approximately 17 million in the first year, further supporting free cash flow generation. As part of the refinancing, we repurchased 40 million of the 72 million convertible notes due 2029, paying approximately 21 million in cash and issuing approximately 2.4 million shares. In addition, we extended the maturity of the remaining 32 million of the convertible notes due 2029 to January 20th. 2032, eliminating their February 2029 maturity.
As a consequence of the refinancing and the repurchase of the convertible notes, we do expect that our leverage will temporarily increase by about half a turn in the fourth quarter and another quarter to half turn in the first quarter of next year as we pay out our annual incentive compensation to employees and pass tariff refunds through to our customers. So beginning in the second quarter of next year, we expect will once again see meaningful de-levering. Following the close of the refinancing, we had approximately 270 million of unrestricted cash and undrawn revolver commitments under our new beverage solutions credit facilities. compared with approximately 95 million at September 30. This substantially increased liquidity provides us with greater flexibility to operate the business and manage the balance sheet over time. To conclude, we believe our improved earnings, lower capital intensity, and improved balance sheet as a result of the refinancing materially strengthens our financial flexibility as we enter the next phase of Westrock Coffee's growth.
Operator
that we'd be happy to open the line for questions. Thank you. At this time we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Eric Des Lauriers of Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is now open.
질의응답
Eric Des Lauriers
Great. Thank you for taking my questions, and congrats on the strong quarter and capital raise here. My first question, just kind of focusing on potential use of proceeds with this greater liquidity that you have now. Can you just kind of give us a sense of your strategic priorities here? How should we think about, you know, potential share buybacks, organic investment, M&A, maybe some more paydowns on the balance sheet? Just kind of help us level set how you're thinking about use of proceeds going forward.
Scott Ford
Sure, I think Chris's remarks addressed the short term, you know, over the next two or three quarters, what we've got going out the door. And frankly, beyond that, at this juncture, we are very focused on retaining cash, paying debt down. We want to de-lever the business. We think we have an absolute unbelievable path towards growing an industry-leading business in this space over the next two to three years. And the best way to do that is from a rock-solid balance sheet and not the sketchy one, maybe, that we have been accused of running in times past as we were building from nothing out of our own back pocket. And so I think you would see us be very conservative with the balance sheet deleveraging. Obviously, as I've said on calls before, No business should leave its balance sheet in a position where it can't defend a reasonable stock price for the business.
And this business has not had that capacity in times past. It does now, but frankly, I'd be very surprised if we were so incented as to come out of pocket with money for that this juncture I think we've got a lot of things we can do internally and perhaps externally that don't add to our net leverage position that increase our industry structure position and we think the best way to get to those cards is to continue to delever between now and then.
Eric Des Lauriers
all right that's helpful thank you um and then um two questions as it relates to uh the um EBITDA cadence for 27. One, I think you mentioned, you know, the EBITDA growth will largely be back half, potentially even Q4 weighted. I think you mentioned some contracts that will be ramping towards the end of the year. So just wanted to kind of confirm that. And then also just touch on SG&A. So from a reported basis, looks like that's come down pretty meaningfully for about five or six straight quarters now. I'm just wondering how to think about that going forward and sort of what's been the main driver of that.
Scott Ford
Yes, well, two things on that front. First of all, in the guidance to 27, I believe is what your first question was about, So where we say, rather than be precisely wrong, we're just trying to be generally correct. Plus or minus 130, most of our customers won't finish their allocations until deep in the first quarter for the actual volumes. We have a lot of conversations, but that's a lot of guesswork, because our fiscal year doesn't fall with the same calendar planning year as most of our customers. So that's what most of the back and forth is through this time of year. So we think 130 is plus or minus a good guess right now. And then the point I was trying to make is a number of customers that we have sold in that $60 million pipeline I referenced, they are slated to come on board towards the middle and latter part of next year.
So when we get into late 27, we'll be at a very different annualized run rate than the 130 that we are guessing right now will fall in the fiscal, which our fiscal calendar year. So that's what I was trying to distinguish. What would that be? We're not really sure. think we'll grow something like another 30 to 40% in 28 after 27's number. And I'm trying to get you some understanding of how that falls in 27 so you can understand those numbers.
Thomas Pledger
And then to your SG&A question, if you recall that as the build out of Conway that there were expenses that were, or operating expenses that were added back, a lot of those were captured quarter by quarter in SG&A. As those have rolled off through the add backs and into operating expense, our SG&A comes down. This is the first quarter though, where we don't have any Conway related add-backs. So if you're looking for kind of a level line for SG&A going forward, this quarter would be it. Overall operating expense is flat, which I think is a great proof point to the business that we've built and as we continue to grow, as Scott talked about in 2027, there's not a lot of incremental opex that we need to put on the business in order to be able to produce those volumes, and you should see most of that drop to the bottom line. Awesome. Very helpful answers. I appreciate you taking my question, and congrats again. Hey, thanks a bunch.
Operator
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Chirag Vora of TAG. Your line is now open.
Sarang Vora
Great, thank you guys for taking the question and great profitability. Great to see the Conway making progress. I know you guys gave guidance for next year, so just thinking in terms of free cash flow, the question before, how should we think about CapEx for next year? I know there are some new production lines that you were thinking of starting given the demand from customers, but you have done a great job. this year in bringing down CapEx. So I'm just curious if you can share a little bit color on how we should think about CapEx for next year. in terms of free cash flow generation. Thank you. Absolutely. Thanks, Sarong.
Thomas Pledger
From a CapEx perspective, I think as we talked about, we've reached an inflection point with Conway. The construction part of Conway is complete and now we're into just operating it. Obviously there are going to be opportunities to deploy capital or deploy CapEx for customers. that want to grow with us, and we firmly expect to do that. We've done that this year within the 30 million of CapEx that we forecast. Next year's going to be 30 to 35 million of CapEx as well. And so we can deliver around the customer commitments that we've made and the opportunities that we have to continue to grow the business and deliver the next year's guidance based on the installed capacity that we have, plus some incremental growth capex in order to be able to meet customer needs. But you're not going to see us go back to a time where, you know, CapEx.
CapEx is $50, $60 million. That's not the business we're in right now. So we're going to execute within those parameters.
Sarang Vora
That's great. I had a second question on the margin profile. I know you talked about SG&A being very muted. So fair to assume that majority of this, we will see a massive gross margin expansion over the next year as Conway goes up, right? Because the mix shifts towards higher higher margin than the ground coffee and single service. Is that the right way to think about the growth trajectory on profitability?.
Thomas Pledger
You definitely should see gross margin go up because there's a mix shift. Conway, as we continue to load on volume, Conway continues to be a larger, contributor to the overall EBITDA business, and that is higher margin business than what we have in most of the base business.
Sarang Vora
That's cool. And just a broader question on Conway, you were ramping up from 40 to 80. What has surprised you the most from a customer request standpoint? Anything that surprised you as you ramped up from a production standpoint? Just curious. you can share feedback from customers or something. Thank you. Thank you for taking the time today.
Scott Ford
to hop on. The greatest surprise from Conway has been twofold. Number one, when they come to Conway, they want to go see everything else we do, and we have had a 70 plus percent multiple product sale to our new customers that are coming in. I mean that's ridiculous. We couldn't have imagined we would have seen a reaction like that to Conway. So one of the reasons that our growth this year has been so strong and frankly our growth over the next two years is likely to be as strong again is because of that multi product portfolio that when people come to Conway they see how easy it is to do business with us and then they say well do you also do cups do you also do roast and ground can you do whole bean then you expand your geographic footprint to cover more of our restaurants in a different part of the country etc etc that's been the biggest surprise this The second one is frankly the ultra-filtered milk, high protein, craze that Conway is built and capable of making and the demand for that and the number of brands coming into that space, the number of products that we have under development right now is the greatest number of individual items by a long shot than we've ever had in the house and that includes when we're were building Conway and first turning it on and so we just continue to get and what about and what about this and can you do this and would you take that and prioritizing that and getting the teams lined up to make sure that our customers have a great product development and commercialization and and then an operational delivery and daily customer follow-up. That's the key to executing a low price, high service, quality product formula, but the appetite for it from new and old customers, frankly, has just been far in excess of what we would have hoped for on our best day. And so the challenge is actually delivering against that and that's where we spend all of our time every day. That's great. Good luck. I'll pass it on.
Operator
Thanks, y'all. This concludes the question and answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Scott Ford, CEO, for closing remarks.
Scott Ford
Well, thank you very much. I'd like to thank all of you for hopping on the call today. Obviously, we were thrilled with the quarter. We're head down trying to close the year and get ready for the new year. We are thrilled with the credit agreement being behind us. It gives us unbelievable flexibility over the next several years, and we will be very, very good stewards of the liquidity that it gives us. And we appreciate your interest in this business and following us today on this call. So y'all have a great afternoon.
Thanks so much.
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You can now disconnect.
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