데이브(DAVE) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 컨퍼런스콜: 매출 성장 가속화, 가이던스 상향

데이브(Dave, NASDAQ: DAVE)는 사상 최대 신규 회원 유입, 엑스트라캐시(ExtraCash) 수익화 개선, 9월 신용 지표 호조에 힘입어 2026년 9월 30일로 마감된 3분기에 매출 성장세가 가속화되었다고 발표했다. 경영진은 2026년 연간 매출, 조정 EBITDA 및 조정 희석 EPS 전망치를 상향 조정했다.

핵심 요약

• 3분기 매출은 전년 동기 대비 31%, 전 분기 대비 약 16% 증가한 1억 9,800만 달러를 기록했다. 월간 거래 회원 수는 전년 동기 대비 18% 증가한 315만 명에 달했으며, 연환산 ARPU는 11% 증가한 251달러를 기록했다.
• 데이브는 전년 동기 대비 35% 증가한 110만 명의 사상 최대 신규 회원을 유치했다. 고객 획득 비용(CAC)은 14% 증가한 22달러를 기록했으나, 경영진은 투자 회수 기간이 4개월 미만을 유지했다고 밝혔다.
• 엑스트라캐시 취급액은 25억 달러에 달해 전년 동기 대비 23%, 전 분기 대비 9% 증가했다. 9월 CashAI v6.0 출시 이후 평균 엑스트라캐시 금액은 225달러에 달했으며, 28일 연체율은 2% 미만으로 떨어졌다.
• 비GAAP(Non-GAAP) 총이익은 33% 증가한 1억 3,800만 달러를 기록했다. 조정 EBITDA는 39% 증가한 8,200만 달러로, 전년 동기의 39% 대비 상승한 41%의 마진을 기록했다.
• 경영진은 2026년 연간 가이던스를 매출 7억 4,600만~7억 5,000만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 3억 2,700만~3억 3,000만 달러, 조정 희석 EPS 17.45~17.65달러로 상향 조정했다.
• 데이브 플렉스(Dave Flex)는 엑스트라캐시와의 초기 교차 상품 도입 성과를 보였으나, 경영진은 2026년에는 유의미한 플렉스 매출이 발생하지 않고 2027년 하반기에 본격적인 기여가 있을 것으로 예상했다.

핵심 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 성과

회원 증가 및 유치 경제성

데이브는 광고 및 활성화 비용을 전년 동기 대비 48%, 전 분기 대비 37% 늘린 2,800만 달러로 확대했다. 마케팅 비용은 50% 이상 증가했으며, CAC는 14% 늘어난 22달러를 기록했다. 경영진은 증분 마케팅 수익률이 여전히 회사 자본비용의 수배에 달한다고 설명했다.

신규 유치의 약 30%는 구전을 통해 지속적으로 이루어졌다. 또한 데이브는 곰 마스코트를 활용한 AI 생성 광고 덕분에 크리에이티브 효율성이 개선되었다고 평가했다. 경영진은 이제 TV와 소셜 미디어 채널 전반에서 대량의 신규 크리에이티브를 훨씬 빠르게 제작할 수 있게 되었다고 밝혔다.

월간 거래 회원당 연환산 총이익은 175달러에 달했다. 경영진은 신규 코호트가 일반적으로 약 6개월 후에 성숙한 수익화 단계에 근접함에 따라, 3분기의 기록적인 신규 회원 유입이 안착하면서 ARPU 성장을 견인할 것이라고 언급했다.

엑스트라캐시 성장 및 수익화

엑스트라캐시 취급액은 25억 달러로 증가했으며, 이는 연환산 분기 말 기준(exit-rate)으로 약 100억 달러에 해당한다. 분기 평균 엑스트라캐시 대출액은 전년 동기 대비 5% 증가한 218달러였으며, 9월에는 225달러에 도달했다.

대손 전 기준 9월 총수익화율은 2분기의 6.4%에서 상승한 약 7%를 기록했다. 취급 건당 매출은 2분기 대비 16% 증가했다. 3분기 전체 순수익화율은 전년 동기 대비 약 40bp 상승한 5.2%에 달해 5년 만에 최고 수준을 기록했다.

데이브는 600달러를 초과하는 엑스트라캐시 한도 테스트를 시작했으며, 일부 고객은 1,000달러에 도달했다. 600달러를 초과하는 한도를 받을 자격이 있는 기존 수수료 상한 회원들은 5%의 수수료로 추가 인출을 이용할 수 있다. 경영진은 한도 상향 및 수수료 상한 제한 해제가 회원당 평균 취급액과 총이익을 뒷받침할 것으로 기대하고 있다.

월 3달러 요금제로 가입하는 회원이 늘어나면서 구독 매출은 전년 동기 대비 74% 증가했다.

신용 성과 및 CashAI v6.0

3분기 28일 연체율은 2.09%였다. CashAI v6.0이 취급 물량의 거의 전부에 적용된 9월의 경우 연체율이 2% 미만으로 떨어졌다. 경영진은 현재까지의 4분기 실적도 9월과 유사한 수준을 유지하고 있다고 밝혔다.

정적 풀(static-pool) 손실률은 전년 동기 대비 보합 또는 하락세를 보였다. 그러나 대손충당금 전입액 3,700만 달러는 회사 예상치를 웃돌았는데, 이는 초기 회수율 개선으로 상환은 빨라졌으나 최종 손실액은 당초 기대만큼 줄어들지 않았기 때문이다. 이에 따라 데이브는 수정된 상환 시점을 반영해 충당금 모델을 재조정했다.

데이브 플렉스 및 데이브 카드

데이브 카드 결제액은 5억 3,300만 달러로 전년 동기 대비 5% 증가했다. 회사는 제품 투자의 무게중심을 데이브 플렉스로 옮겼으며, 데이브 플렉스 회원 수는 3분기 동안 수천 명 수준에서 수만 명 수준으로 증가했다.

경영진은 플렉스와 엑스트라캐시가 잠식 관계가 아니라 상호보완적이라고 설명했다. 플렉스를 도입한 기존 엑스트라캐시 이용자는 대체로 엑스트라캐시 사용을 유지했고, 플렉스를 통해 유입된 고객 역시 엑스트라캐시를 높은 비율로 채택했다. 데이브는 2027년에 플렉스를 더 광범위하게 확장하기 전에 유입 경로와 단위 경제성을 최적화할 계획이다.

조달 및 자본 배분

데이브는 코스탈 커뮤니티 은행(Coastal Community Bank)을 통한 엑스트라캐시 조달 한도를 2억 2,500만 달러에서 3억 2,500만 달러로 확대했다. 코스탈 은행은 2분기 9,300만 달러에서 증가한 약 1억 5,900만 달러의 매출채권을 분기 말에 조달했다. 기초 자산의 경제적 실익과 신용 위험은 데이브가 계속 보유한다.

회사는 대부분의 신규 취급에 코스탈 은행을 활용하고 2027년 초까지 나머지 회원의 이관을 완료할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 코스탈 은행 조달 비용으로 인해 3분기 총이익률은 전 분기 대비 약 100bp 하락했으나, 기존에 매출채권에 묶여 있던 유동성을 확보할 수 있게 되었다.

데이브는 3분기 동안 양도제한조건부주식(RSU) 순결제와 장내 매수를 통해 약 2,000만 달러를 집행했다. 자사주 매입 승인 잔여액은 8,800만 달러였다. 10월 초, 회사는 빅토리 파크(Victory Park) 대출 계약에 따른 미상환 잔액 7,500만 달러를 전액 상환했다.

경영진 가이던스

중간값 기준 이 전망치는 4분기 매출이 전년 동기 대비 약 35% 증가한 약 2억 2,100만 달러, 조정 EBITDA 마진이 약 46%에 이를 것임을 시사한다. 경영진은 2026년 연간 조정 EBITDA 마진이 약 300bp 확대될 것으로 전망했다.

이 전망은 4분기 마케팅 투자가 3분기보다 늘어나고, 가격 정책, CashAI 언더라이팅, 구독 구성비, 코호트 안착 등에 힘입어 ARPU 상승세가 지속될 것을 전제로 한다. 또한 4분기 비GAAP 총이익률이 2분기 수준을 상회하고 유효세율 23%를 적용한다는 가정을 포함하고 있다. 데이브 플렉스의 유의미한 매출은 반영되지 않았다.

리스크 및 주목할 점

• 초기 상환율 개선이 최종 손실의 예상된 감소로 이어지지 않으면서 대손충당금 전입액이 경영진의 종전 예상치를 초과했다.
• 해당 프로그램을 통해 회사의 직접 조달 부담은 줄어들었으나, 코스탈 은행을 통해 조달된 채권의 신용 위험은 여전히 데이브가 부담한다.
• 예상보다 빨랐던 코스탈 은행 조달 비용 발생과 대손충당금 전입으로 인해 3분기 비GAAP 총이익률은 전 분기 대비 하락했다.
• 주식 기준 보상은 2,200만 달러에 달했으며, 여기에는 성과 기반 보상의 예상 지급액 증가와 연계된 약 400만 달러의 일회성 추가 반영분(catch-up)이 포함되었다.
• 기타 영업비용에는 비경상적 법적 합의금 및 소송 비용 600만 달러가 포함되었다. 경영진은 법무부 사안에 대한 새로운 진전은 없으며 데이브는 계속해서 입장을 방어하고 있다고 밝혔다.
• 데이브 플렉스는 아직 초기 단계에 머물러 있어 2026년에는 유의미한 매출이 예상되지 않으며, 본격적인 확장은 2027년으로 계획되어 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

• 신규 회원 품질: 경영진은 유치 규모 확대가 전환율이나 고객 품질을 약화시키지 않았다고 밝혔다. 규모 확대에도 불구하고 투자 회수 기간은 약 4개월 수준을 유지했다.
• ARPU 성장 여력: 데이브는 수수료 상한 변경, 엑스트라캐시 한도 상향, 구독 증가, 코호트 성숙, 데이브 플렉스를 주요 수익화 동인으로 꼽았다. 경영진은 다른 조건이 동일하다면 성숙한 코호트의 ARPU 성장률이 약 13%에 근접했을 것이라고 언급했다.
• 수수료 변경 및 이탈: 경영진은 수수료 상한을 15달러에서 20달러로 인상했음에도 추가적인 고객 이탈은 없었다고 보고했다. 고객들은 약간 더 높은 수수료를 내는 대신 더 높은 한도를 부여받고 있다고 설명했다.
• 신용 위험 감수 성향: 데이브는 포트폴리오 수익 구조를 실질적으로 바꾸기보다는 총이익 극대화에 계속 집중하고 있다고 밝혔다. 추가적인 신용 공여 기회는 최대 1,000달러의 선별적 한도를 포함해 고한도 고객군에 주로 존재한다.
• 취급액 증가율: 경영진은 최근 엑스트라캐시 취급액 증가율 둔화가 언더라이팅 강화 때문이 아니라 수수료 상한 제한 때문이라고 설명했다. 이러한 제한이 해소됨에 따라 취급액 증가세가 가속화될 것으로 전망했다.
• 중기 성장 프레임워크: 경영진은 회원 유치 성과와 수익화 추진에 힘입어 중기적으로 10%대 중반의 회원 수 증가율과 10%대 초반의 ARPU 증가율을 달성할 수 있다는 자신감을 재확인했다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's conference call to discuss Dave's financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Joining us today are Dave's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jason Wilk; and the company's CFO and COO, Mr. Kyle Beilman.

By now, everyone should have access to the third quarter 2026 earnings press release, which was issued today after the market closed. The release is available in the Investor Relations section of Dave's website at investors.dave.com. This call will also be available for webcast replay on the company's website. Please note that this call is being recorded.

Certain comments made during this conference call and webcast are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain known and unknown risks and uncertainties as well as assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in these forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are also subject to other risks and uncertainties that are described from time to time in the company's filings with the SEC. Do not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which are being made only as of the date of this call. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

The company's presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net income, non-GAAP gross profit, non-GAAP gross margin, adjusted earnings per share and compensation expense, excluding stock-based compensation as supplemental measures of the performance of our business.

All non-GAAP measures have been reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in accordance with SEC rules. You will find reconciliation tables and other important information in the earnings press release and Form 8-K furnished to the SEC, which are available in the Investor Relations section of Dave's website at investors.dave.com.

[Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Dave's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Jason Wilk. Please go ahead.

Jason Wilk

Good afternoon, and thank you all for joining us. Q3 was another strong quarter for Dave with revenue growth accelerating to 31% year-over-year, driven by accelerating member growth and continued ARPU expansion, all while delivering strong credit performance. Based on these results and the momentum we see across the business, we are once again raising our full year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS.

There are 3 key takeaways from today's call. First, credit performance was strong in Q3 and improved further in September, following the full rollout of CashAI v6.0 with record ExtraCash sizes and lower 28-DPD rates. Second, our customer acquisition engine is delivering record scale and improving unit economics, making our growth investments increasingly attractive. Lastly, Dave Flex is showing encouraging early traction with better-than-expected acquisition costs and strong cross-product adoption with ExtraCash that suggests significant upside to baseline member lifetime value.

Turning to our growth pillars. Starting with member acquisition. We added a record 1.1 million new members, up 35% year-over-year. But the bigger story is how efficiently we scaled. Marketing spend increased more than 50%, while CAC rose just 14%, which was outpaced by improvements in member lifetime value, thus maintaining our attractive returns at much higher volume.

As we've said before, we invest to maximize gross profit dollars rather than minimize CAC. With returns on incremental marketing investment at multiples of our cost of capital, we invested beyond the higher plan we outlined last year. We delivered record non-GAAP gross profit of $138 million, up 33% year-over-year and annualized gross profit per MTM increased approximately $19 to $175. As our record new member cohorts build tenure, we expect their increasing engagement and monetization to support growth into 2027.

Moving to our second pillar, engagement through ExtraCash. Originations reached $2.5 billion, up 23% year-over-year and 9% sequentially, and we exited the quarter at nearly $10 billion in annualized originations. Growth reflected more credit active members and a 5% year-on-year increase in average ExtraCash size to $218. Following the full rollout of CashAI v6.0 in September, average ExtraCash size grew to $225, while our 28-day past due rate on September originations fell below 2%, improving from 2.09% for the quarter. This strong credit performance has continued into Q4.

We also began testing ExtraCash limits beyond $600 with early results showing a meaningful increase in gross profit per member. Notably, existing fee cap members eligible for more than $600 will be enabled higher limits via an additional draw at a 5% fee, which we believe now puts all customers roughly on the same fee structure. We believe higher limits in combination with this additional draw monetization and strong credit performance sets us up well to continue delivering higher gross profit per member moving forward.

Moving to our third pillar, deepening engagement. Dave Card spend was $533 million, up 5% year-over-year. As we discussed previously, we have deliberately shifted our focus from new debit-focused initiatives to our new Dave Flex card, which we believe has more differentiation in the market to win top-of-wallet spend, given our advantages in underwriting and the strong value propositions of the product.

During Q3, we grew Dave Flex adoption from single to double-digit thousands of members through both cross-selling to existing members and direct customer acquisition at better-than-expected acquisition costs. While results are still early, we are encouraged that the products are proving complementary. Existing ExtraCash members cross-sold to Dave Flex are retaining and monetizing well ahead of baseline, driving significant potential LTV upside. Members acquired directly through Dave Flex marketing are subsequently adopting ExtraCash and members who may not yet be approved for Dave Flex are adopting ExtraCash.

Overall, our ecosystem approach is playing out as expected, and we plan to continue to optimize the acquisition funnel and unit economics ahead of scaling more broadly in 2027. We do not expect meaningful Dave Flex revenue in 2026 and none is embedded in our guidance. We expect a more significant contribution in the second half of 2027.

Before turning it over to Kyle, a couple of strategic updates. First, we recently amended our agreement with Coastal Community Bank to expand our funding capacity, giving us greater flexibility to invest in growth and return capital to shareholders. Kyle will cover the specifics. On the DOJ matter, we have no updates and continue to vigorously defend our position.

In closing, we're accelerating member growth, expanding monetization and improving credit outcomes, which are all coming together to drive record performance. Thanks to the entire Dave team for another strong quarter.

And with that, I'll turn it over to Kyle.

Kyle Beilman

Thanks, Jason, and good afternoon, everyone. Our Q3 results show the durability of our model at increased scale. We increased acquisition investment beyond our prior plan while maintaining strong credit performance and growing adjusted EBITDA faster than revenue. In addition, the Coastal funding transition freed up liquidity to support growth and capital return.

I'll cover the financial results, explain the provision and gross margin drivers and close with our capital position and raised outlook. The earnings supplement on our IR site provides a detailed KPI breakdown.

Starting with revenue. Total revenue was $198 million, accelerating to 31% year-over-year and nearly 16% sequentially. Growth was driven by an 18% increase in monthly transacting members to 3.15 million, an acceleration from Q2, together with an 11% growth rate in the annualized ARPU to $251. Newer members begin at lower ARPU and expand with tenure, so a record new member cohort weighs on the average. Even with that mix shift and faster MTM growth, monetization improved as the fee cap changes and CashAI v6.0 supported larger ExtraCash amounts and higher revenue per origination.

One note on comparability. Beginning this quarter, we no longer include, in our calculation of MTMs, members whose only monthly activity was low engagement, non-monetized activity related to Goals accounts. This change affects MTMs, ARPU and gross profit per MTM and prior periods have been recast to ensure comparability.

On pricing, September's gross monetization rate, which measures ExtraCash revenue per dollar originated before credit losses, was approximately 7% compared with 6.4% for Q2. Combined with a larger average ExtraCash size in September, this drove a 16% increase in revenue per origination versus Q2. These results capture a full month of fee cap changes and most of the rollout of CashAI v6.0. For the full quarter, those gains held up after credit losses. Our net monetization rate was 5.2%, up about 40 basis points year-over-year and our highest in 5 years.

Beyond ExtraCash, subscription revenue provides another monetization tailwind, growing 74% year-over-year as more of the base joins at the $3 a month price point. With pricing, underwriting, subscription mix and seasoning of our recent new member cohorts all contributing, we believe we are well positioned to sustain MTM growth and ARPU expansion into 2027.

Turning to gross profit. Non-GAAP gross profit was $138 million, up 33% year-over-year, and non-GAAP gross margin was 70%, up from 69% a year ago and down from 72% in Q2. Two items drove the sequential change. First, Coastal funding costs, which accounted for about 100 basis points of the change from Q2. Most of that was planned, but the transition moved faster than expected, so more receivables entered the program sooner and the related costs came through earlier. These costs are included in gross margin, but excluded from adjusted EBITDA and the transition freed up significant liquidity tied up in ExtraCash receivables.

Second is the provision. Provision for credit losses was $37 million or about 1.5% of ExtraCash originations, in line with the year ago rate but above our forecast. Provision reflects portfolio growth, mix and credit performance, so it can move differently from static pool delinquency and loss rates, which we believe more directly measure credit quality. Static pool loss rates were flat to down year-over-year.

However, our prior provision forecast assumed a larger improvement based on stronger early repayment performance we saw coming out of the spring following collections enhancements we made. Those enhancements brought repayments in sooner, but didn't reduce ultimate losses as much as the early data implied. We've recalibrated our forecast to reflect these new repayment timing patterns and our updated outlook incorporates them.

September was our strongest month of the quarter with a 28-day past due rate below 2%. Q4 to date is tracking in line with September, supporting our expectation that the quarter's 28-day past due rate will remain below 2%. Our updated forecast points to meaningfully better ultimate loss rates, which, together with our pricing changes, supports our expectation for Q4 non-GAAP gross margin to exceed Q2 levels.

Now working down the P&L. Advertising and activation expense was $28 million, up 48% year-over-year and 37% sequentially. As Jason noted, attractive returns supported investments above our prior plan. We expect a modest further increase in marketing investment in Q4.

Compensation and benefits was $43 million, including $22 million of stock-based compensation. Stock-based compensation increased as our stronger full year outlook raised expected payouts on performance-based awards, including a onetime catch-up of about $4 million for prior quarters. Excluding stock-based compensation, compensation was $21 million, up roughly 21% year-over-year and 10% sequentially. The increase reflects the targeted investments in product development, marketing and AI we outlined last quarter.

Other operating expenses were $14 million, including $6 million of nonrecurring legal settlement and litigation expenses excluded from adjusted results. On an adjusted basis, fixed expenses grew more slowly than revenue and declined to approximately 17% of revenue from 18% a year ago. We expect operating leverage to continue building as revenue scales.

Pulling it all together on profitability, adjusted EBITDA was $82 million, up 39% year-over-year at a 41% margin, up from 39% a year ago. GAAP net income was $64 million or $3.30 per diluted share, including $26 million of noncash gains from the remeasurement of warrant and earn-out liabilities. Those gains are excluded from adjusted results and the underlying instruments expire in January of 2027. The year ago GAAP comparison included a significant tax benefit, primarily from releasing a valuation allowance.

Adjusted net income was $60 million and adjusted diluted EPS was $4.39, down 7% and 1% year-over-year, respectively. Both comparisons reflect taxes. Last year's third quarter included a tax benefit in adjusted results, while this quarter reflects a more normalized effective tax rate. Before taxes, adjusted earnings grew roughly in line with adjusted EBITDA and a 5% lower adjusted diluted share count helped per-share results.

Turning to capital. We ended Q3 with $315 million of cash, investments and restricted cash, up from $254 million at the end of the second quarter. We generated over $81 million in operating cash flow, while additional Coastal funding reduced our direct funding needs. As Jason noted, we recently amended our Coastal program agreement, increasing our ExtraCash funding capacity from $225 million to $325 million.

Coastal funded approximately $159 million of receivables at quarter end, up from $93 million at the end of the second quarter. We expect to complete the remaining member migration in early 2027, allowing us to make fuller use of the expanded capacity. As a reminder, Coastal funds the receivables while we retain the underlying economics and credit risk exposure.

With respect to capital return, we deployed approximately $20 million during the quarter to reduce our share count through restricted stock unit net settlements and open market repurchases, leaving $88 million available under our repurchase authorization.

In early October, we also repaid the $75 million outstanding under our Victory Park debt facility. Adjusting September 30 cash for only that repayment leaves approximately $240 million of cash, investments and restricted cash with no borrowings remaining under that facility. Our capital priorities remain unchanged: invest in organic growth at attractive returns and repurchase shares opportunistically to create long-term per-share value.

Turning to our updated 2026 outlook. We are raising guidance across all 3 metrics. We now expect revenue of $746 million to $750 million, up from $725 million to $735 million. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $327 million to $330 million, up from $315 million to $325 million, and we expect adjusted diluted EPS of $17.45 to $17.65, up from $17 to $17.50, and this assumes a 23% effective tax rate.

At the midpoint, our outlook implies fourth quarter revenue of approximately $221 million, up roughly 35% year-over-year and a further acceleration from 31% in Q3 and a fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 46%. For the full year, that represents approximately 300 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion.

The outlook assumes higher marketing investment in Q4 than in Q3, continued ARPU support from pricing, CashAI underwriting, subscription mix and cohort seasoning and the Q4 gross margin expansion I described. It also assumes no meaningful revenue contribution from Dave Flex.

In closing, we are raising our full year outlook with revenue growth accelerating again in Q4 while investing more in acquisition at attractive returns. Improving credit performance and stronger monetization support our Q4 margin outlook, while greater funding capacity and liquidity give us flexibility to invest in growth and capital return. We believe these factors position us well heading into 2027.

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from the line of Devin Ryan with Citizens Bank.

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Devin Ryan

A question just on the record new member additions. Obviously, good to see here. Can you talk about what you're doing different to drive them? Obviously, higher marketing dollars, but CAC went up a little bit, but still at a very -- looks like a positive payback. So can you just talk a little bit about that? And then also, just the seasoning that you typically see since this is a big number. As we look out over the next 4 quarters, as they mature, like, how much ARPU uplift do you see typically over kind of a 12-month look forward just so we can kind of think about modeling this since it's a big number?

Jason Wilk

Yes. Thanks, Devin. I appreciate it. I can speak to the first part of the question with new members. Yes, I'd say it's just really business as usual with our existing channels. We're scaling up the channels that work best for us from TV to social media. And as you know, 30% of our acquisition is coming from word of mouth, which has not changed at all with these increased levels of scale, which gives us a lot of promise going into the next several years here.

I'd say the one lift though is from our further investments in AI-borne creative. We have a very recognizable brand mascot. We spent a lot of time, effort and energy developing that. And AI is able to create tens of thousands of creatives within minutes. It tends to be that most of these networks, they like new and fresh creative. And previously, it took us several months to make one ad, and now we can make ads within a matter of seconds using our proprietary bear mascot with what is an incredibly recognizable dave.com domain name. So I just speak to that being really good signs, and we love to see the incrementality that we're driving here.

And I'll let Kyle speak to the incremental ARPU expansion as these cohorts season.

Kyle Beilman

So look, in terms of how they season, we tend to see, call it, in that post 6-month window, things tend to sort of approach more what we would consider kind of a terminal kind of monetization. And we don't provide explicit breakouts around that.

But I think that we're just really excited to see all the ARPU levers we have kind of stacking that give us a lot of confidence in just the runway of ARPU and kind of getting us to that low double-digit ARPU growth trajectory that we've talked a lot about over the last couple of years. And that comes in the form of the fee cap changes that we completed in Q3, the higher limits that we're in the process of offering. We talked about, in September, that, that number was about $225, and we see there to be a lot of continued upside in that by lifting the higher end of the limit spectrum.

And then we also have the subscription fee revenue that's growing. I think that was up about 74% year-over-year. And then you layer on the Flex opportunity on top of all that. And on the monetization side of the equation, we're feeling very good. But I'd say, all else equal, you probably would have seen us closer to that kind of 13-ish percent number if we had cohorts kind of in that seasoned range that we would kind of expect things to mature to if you're following that.

Devin Ryan

Yes. Great. I appreciate the color there. And then as my follow-up, I just want to get a little bit of maybe early learnings from Flex. Good to hear that you're seeing some demand there and expansion. The question is, are you seeing these members? I know there's overlap with existing ExtraCash members. Is it additive in terms of the activity level that you're seeing from the members? Or is it all cannibalistic where they're using -- they're now using Flex instead of ExtraCash? Just trying to get a sense of like how to think about -- are they complementing each other? Or in some ways, are they competing with each other?

Jason Wilk

Thanks, Devin. I'd say that's one of the most encouraging parts of the product launch thus far is the complementary nature of the 2 business lines. We are seeing customers that are existing ExtraCash users who adopt Flex continue to use ExtraCash almost in its entirety from their prior limits.

But what's also encouraging, as we mentioned on the call, is customers we are acquiring directly into Flex, both the ones that are approved also adopt ExtraCash at a very high rate, and also the ones that we turned down adopt ExtraCash at a very high rate, which turns it into much more of a low-and-grow strategy where we can hang on to that customer and upsell them Flex later.

So there's a lot to like. And as we just continue to develop the cohorts, we're excited to ramp up that product further in 2027. But definitely not cannibalistic.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Patrick Moley with Piper Sandler.

Patrick Moley

So Kyle, on gross monetization, I think you said it reached about 7% in September as the legacy fee caps came off, 5.2% for the quarter. So is that 7% the fully loaded right now? Or is there more that we should expect as that $20 cap cohort rolls off?

Kyle Beilman

Thanks, Patrick. It's about 7% for September. And then in terms of total unit monetization on the $225 base, you can kind of infer what the average revenue per ExtraCash is. So the quarterly average was about 6.4% for gross monetization versus that September figure. So you can kind of see what the impact of that fee change was relative to baseline there. I think that September metric is a pretty good indication for where we see the Q4 numbers shake out.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Chris Zhang with UBS.

Chao Zhang

My first question was on the acquisition cost for the quarter, but I think it's more -- we're actually more interested in what it looks like in September. And in particular, I remember recently, you shared some stats on the returns or the paybacks on the marginal acquisition dollars. And maybe can you give us a sense or an update of the CAC for the September onwards cohorts? And on the margin, what kind of returns or ROIs you're looking at for the marginal acquisition dollars?

Jason Wilk

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So just to reiterate, so CAC did go to $22, but the gross profit per user went up even faster by $8 to $175. And so it is still a sub 4-month payback even at this increased scale with a very slight increase to CAC. I mean the reality is the marginal improvements in LTV over the last couple of years certainly significantly overshadowed the small increases in CAC to the point that these investment returns are still very, very attractive with much higher increases in CAC compared to this. So these are really healthy trends, and we are encouraged and excited to see the results here.

Kyle Beilman

And just to add to that, Chris, in terms of the marginal CAC, I mean, as you can imagine, they're higher than the sort of baseline average, but we are investing aggressively at this level. I think as you can see, the amount of dollars we're putting to work here, that the returns on an incremental basis are multiples of our cost of capital. And so things continue to look very, very healthy at the top of funnel.

Chao Zhang

All right, appreciate it. And my follow-up is on the loss rates. And I guess maybe conceptually, can you give us a sense of potentially, under CashAI v6.0, how much have you -- if you have, how much have you already kind of loosened the loss rates at all just to kind of widen the originations in order to maximize the gross profit dollars? And then maybe looking ahead, just compared to the take rate, how much are you willing to kind of loosen the loss rates going forward? And maybe like also kind of on the marginal concept, if you could give us a sense of maybe what the loss rate looks like on the marginal cohort, maybe the lowest credit quality cohort, and how high the losses are you willing to tolerate in order to just maximize the gross profit dollars, that would be helpful.

Kyle Beilman

So maybe just to start with the September figures because I think those are a pretty good indication of the fee model changes as well as the impact of v6, which was -- it covered nearly all the originations in September. And so what we talked about is the 28-DPD rate for September being below that 2% level, which should pull through to really solid sequential improvements to our 121-day loss rates.

And look, we're always kind of considering different optimizations within the portfolio to maximize gross profit. I would say that we're -- there's always room to make improvements. But I think in terms of where the margins are at, we're pretty happy there, and I wouldn't expect to see us make any material deviations from these kind of unit economics to maximize a different outcome than what we've been sort of orienting around over the last, call it, quarter or 2 here. I hope that helps.

But again, we're always kind of hunting for value, but very comfortable with where the unit economics lie, especially coming out of September based on the dynamics that we've talked about.

Chao Zhang

All right. Appreciate it, Kyle. Definitely encouraging to see the improvement in September.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Connor Allen with JPMorgan.

Connor Allen

I also wanted to ask about members and your investment into marketing. I was curious, as the kind of top of funnel is widening, perhaps you're investing into it, are you seeing any change or surprises relative to the conversion rate to transacting members? Has that dynamic changed at all versus your expectation?

Kyle Beilman

I mean the short answer is no. I mean I think that's captured in our payback periods. and they continue to stay in that, call it, 4, 4-ish month range there and at this higher level of scale. So again, as we talked about, things look very, very healthy, and we're certainly not seeing any kind of deterioration in the quality of customers that we're acquiring at this higher level of scale. Things look, again, very, very healthy at the top of funnel.

Jason Wilk

Which, Connor, I think just speaks to the size of the TAM in general, further supporting how large it is.

Connor Allen

Understood. Got you. Maybe another one on just the fee change -- the fee structure changes. I'm curious whether you've seen any -- as you've made these changes, has there been any impact on churn rates or customer behavior? It seems like no, just from the way you've described it, but anything you'd add there just around customer behavior relative to the fee changes you've made?

Jason Wilk

No, nothing there. I mean specifically the fee change from the $15 to $20 fee cap, there's been no incremental churn as a result of that. The customers that we do give have a benefit in the sense that for a slightly higher fee, they are getting a higher limit. And so we know that our customers would gladly trade a slightly higher amount of money to get more limit. And we did note in the call today that customers going beyond $600 will now have access to an additional draw who were previously fee-capped at a 5% fee. And so we now, for all intents and purposes, have all customers on roughly the same fee schedule at this point for sort of modeling simplicity moving forward.

Connor Allen

And that lets you expand the kind of total cap that you can offer, which matters a lot to the customers. Cool. Appreciate it.

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Ryan Tomasello with KBW.

Ryan Tomasello

Can you just put a finer point on what drove the provision recalibration and the deviation in repayment performance relative to your assumptions? Anything concerning there on the credit side, particularly with respect to the new member cohorts, given you've been leaning into growth? And then does that weaker provision performance run-rate into your go-forward assumptions? If you can tell us what you're baking in for the 4Q provision, that would be helpful.

Kyle Beilman

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. So look, as we talked about, credit performance in general was very solid in the quarter. When we look at the provision, early -- coming out of last quarter, what we saw was really solid early DPD data that we had taken into our provision forecast that was pretty early on in its sort of repayment curve. Ultimately, the losses didn't fall quite as much as what that early strength had suggested.

And so instead of them being improving, they were roughly flat and that kind of drove up our expectation or we sort of under-modeled the provision for this quarter. And so we've recalibrated our extrapolation factors based on the new repayment timing curves. And what has happened there was we rolled out some servicing and collection improvements that effectively pulled forward some of the collection dollars that typically fall into the tail. And we've since recalibrated that, that's now captured in the revised outlook.

And I guess to put a bit of a finer point on it, when you look at the relationship between the 28-DPD rate and the 120-DPD rate, that typically matures at -- historically had matured in kind of that low 30s range where it would reduce into the low 30s between 28 and 120. And now we're seeing that kind of come in, in the high 20s. So that's what we're capturing in our modeling. And again, that's all been captured in our revised outlook.

Ryan Tomasello

And then just a follow-up on the fee caps. As you look at across the member base, just kind of high level, how much runway do you think is out there on average advance sizes, particularly with the higher advanced limit cohort that you already have? Any way to frame how that looks entering next year? And relative to the $225 you cited for September, do you expect growth off of that for the full fourth quarter?

Jason Wilk

So Ryan, I'd say, certainly, we believe a lot of room to run now that we've extended limits beyond $600 with some early test customers already reaching a $1,000 limit, both on ExtraCash as well as with Flex. The $225, expect to still see some growth there in Q4. September was the first full month of v6, which really produced the $225 result in combination with the higher than $600 credit limit customers as well as just improvements to underwriting in general with v6.

So as that continues to season, similar with the v5.5, we think there's a good amount of room to run here still. And as Flex matures, that also will be a tailwind for average originations per user as we -- again, to Devin's point, we're not seeing any cannibalization with those products. So expect the synergy to show up in positive cumulative consumption of credit.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Adib Choudhury with William Blair.

Adib Choudhury

So it looks like the ExtraCash origination dollar year-over-year growth has been decelerating for the last couple of quarters. I just wanted to ask, is that a function of a tighter underwriting or a change in the credit box or aperture? Or is there something else you would call out there?

Kyle Beilman

No. I mean, I just -- it's definitely not a change in sort of risk aperture by any means. As we've talked about, credit performance remains really solid. I mean it's more just a function that we haven't been growing that quite as fast as we had historically because we were constrained around the fee cap to grow average origination sizes per customer at the rate that we did last year, for instance.

And so I think with that fee cap constraint eliminated now, we would expect to grow origination dollars on top of or at a higher rate than what we have been, call it, over the last couple of quarters where it's largely more [ tracked ] to customer growth as opposed to being able to unlock higher average origination sizes per customer. So all that being said, I would expect to see an acceleration there now that this fee cap constraint has been removed.

Adib Choudhury

Got it. And as a follow-up, I guess as we're getting closer to '27, could you kind of remind us about the line of sight you guys have towards achieving the mid-teens member growth and low double-digit ARPU monetization growth that's embedded in your longer-term growth algorithm?

Kyle Beilman

Yes. I mean we continue to feel very good about that over the medium term here. Nothing about our performance thus far calls that into question. We're very excited about what's going on with the overall performance that we're seeing within the portfolio to drive originations growth. Top of funnel is working exceptionally well. We have the monetization levers that I walked through earlier. And so we're feeling quite confident in the outlook.

Jason Wilk

I would just add that the more months we have here or more quarters we have of this accelerated member acquisition, as those customers season over time, that will set us up well for further growth into 2027. So a strong fourth quarter and third quarter really are going to be accretive for us for next year and the years following.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Adam Frisch with Evercore. Our next question comes from the line of Jacob Stephan with Lake Street Capital Markets.

Jacob Stephan

Maybe just first, I want to touch on the ARPU expansion quarter-over-quarter, 9%. Maybe if you could just kind of piece out a little bit more in detail on the moving parts of the fee cap removal plus the higher limits that you're advancing to customers. And just remind us the timing of some of those moves in Q2 when you remove the fee cap, et cetera.

Kyle Beilman

Jacob, thanks for the question. I mean, effectively, we were testing -- well, when we take a step back, we had eliminated the fee cap for new customers back in the second quarter, and we had begun the migration of existing customers to either the $20 cap or the fee cap elimination altogether, call it, by late August is when that change was fully implemented. That sort of coincided with the ramping of v6 over that same period of time as well.

And so again, that's why we've tried to highlight September as very instructive on the sort of exit rate for the quarter and the baseline for expectations moving forward. But effectively, the time line is ramping throughout the third quarter on both v6 as well as the pricing adjustments with a full quarter's benefit -- or excuse me, a full month's benefit in September.

Jason Wilk

And for clarity, existing fee cap customers that are looking for credit in addition to the $600 we are giving them today, we will issue them credit via an additional draw of which they'll have to pay the 5% for that additional credit. And that's what I meant on the call that, that roughly puts all the cohorts on the same pricing as of -- once we have that fully rolled out by the end of this quarter.

Jacob Stephan

Okay. Got it. That makes sense. And then maybe just on the Coastal Community facility being upsized today. I think in the past, you've said that you were planning to fund some of the originations off your own balance sheet. Coastal is going to fund the rest. But is that strategy changing at all? How are you thinking about using Coastal going forward?

Kyle Beilman

I would expect to use them for the vast majority of originations. I mean we have the flexibility to balance sheet more of it ourselves, but we really like this arrangement that we've struck with them. It just provides us a lot of kind of flexibility from a capital allocation standpoint at an attractive cost of funds. And so it's something that we're quite happy with, and we'll look to likely use to its full extent for the foreseeable future.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Reggie Smith with Loop Capital.

Reginald Lawrence Smith

I just listened to your last response, and I was thinking about the new cohort of users that have come on. And so you've obviously relaxed the fees. And so I'm curious what you're seeing in terms of initial activation as you kind of think about the various kind of cohorts. I would imagine being able to offer -- and maybe you're not doing it, but are you offering more credit on the first transaction? And have you seen an uptick in early engagement? And anything you can talk to around that? And then I have one follow-up about your collections.

Jason Wilk

Reggie, I'd say for the most part, because we have more of a low-and-grow strategy, newer customers tend to get approved for lower amounts than existing customers that we know that we have a longer tenure with. I'd say most of the improvements in first-time credit offers have come from just improvements in overall underwriting.

The big change with respect to new customer offers came with our new pricing model when we moved to the $5 minimum 5% pricing a couple of years ago. It really impacts the customers that are growing beyond the limits of which the fee cap was causing some constraints where we are seeing some obviously positive uplift to ARPU and origination size per user.

Reginald Lawrence Smith

Got it. Okay. And then just thinking about -- it sounds like -- and I'm multitasking here, so I may have gotten this wrong, but it sounds like you pulled forward some of your collections. And I'm curious, I guess, like you, I would assume that, that would carry forward, but for some reason, it's not. I'm curious, are people shutting down the accounts? Like what would explain that fall off toward the back of the collection period? Are you seeing that folks just aren't receiving income in that account and aren't active in that account, that linked account anymore? Or what's driving that?

Kyle Beilman

Yes. I mean that tends to be the typical thing that you see from a loss perspective as people abandon the accounts or have stopped their income coming into those accounts that we underwrote. I would say nothing has really changed. And the pull forward is really, again, a function of the servicing and kind of collections upgrades that we put into place. And it's -- we expected those results to carry through.

But in hindsight, we didn't really change much around the decisioning process from an underwriting perspective to really expect meaningful loss rate impact. And I think that was just a learning for us and how we kind of think about what's servicing and collections impact versus, say, the decisioning where decisioning is probably more of a driver for ultimate loss rate as opposed to the servicing and collection instruments.

Jason Wilk

Reggie, the big takeaway is that loss rate from a provision perspective were still flat to down year-over-year. But as an operator and also an investor, excited about September performance with 28-DPD rate being below 2%. I mean there's a lot to like about that. And that was, again, the first full month of v6, which has been a big focus area of the company to get that rolled out. And that's what I would be using to assess the credit performance of the company.

Reginald Lawrence Smith

Yes. I think to echo, I think, what Chris was getting at earlier, I think we see the DQ rate go down, and we hear about the underwriting, that's great. I think what we're wondering is like why not push it. And obviously, we get, you just have the Coastal Bank agreement and you want to be very cautious there and careful. But it just seems like there's probably more risk on the table -- or more opportunity that's not necessarily being tapped into. And so -- it's great to see but...

Kyle Beilman

Yes. I mean just to speak to that, I think where we see that big opportunity is particularly at the higher end of our limit spectrum. And Jason talked about the ability to go up to $1,000 for those customers and being a little bit more risk on being able to help support more of their needs with the higher limits. And I don't think that really changes the sort of the margin picture to be dilutive at all. It's just ARPU-accretive and value proposition-accretive, which is why we're so excited about it.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.