트레이거(COOK) 2026 회계연도 3분기 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜: 매출 40% 감소, 가이던스 축소

핵심 요약

• 트래거의 2026 회계연도 3분기 매출은 채널 최적화, 시장 재고 정상화, 경쟁 압박 및 출하 시점 영향으로 전년 동기 대비 40% 감소한 7,500만 달러를 기록했다.
• 조정 EBITDA는 전년 동기 1,400만 달러 흑자에서 300만 달러 적자로 전환했다. 경영진은 프로젝트 그래비티를 통한 비용 절감이 매출 감소의 영향을 일부 상쇄했다고 밝혔다.
• 연초 대비 누적 잉여현금흐름은 4,900만 달러에 달했다. 분기 말 현금은 6,800만 달러인 반면 순부채는 총 3억 3,500만 달러였으며, 이용 가능한 유동성은 1억 6,700만 달러였다.
• 트래거는 연간 매출 가이던스를 4억 4,000만~4억 6,000만 달러로, 조정 EBITDA 가이던스를 5,900만~6,500만 달러로 각각 축소 제시하면서 기존 전망치의 중간값을 유지했다.
• 경영진은 3분기 이월 출하 물량과 로우스의 초기 재고 입고에 힘입어 4분기 매출과 조정 EBITDA가 전년 동기 대비 성장할 것이라는 전망을 유지했다.
• 회사 측은 유통망 확대, 재고 감소, 슬림해진 비용 구조를 바탕으로 2027년에 수익성 있는 성장으로 복귀할 것으로 전망했다. 이러한 전망은 소비 여건의 대폭적인 개선을 가정하지 않은 결과다.

핵심 재무 실적

매출총이익률 압박은 판촉비 지출 시기, 고정 창고 비용의 레버리지 효과 감소, 스마트 온도계 사업의 지속적인 부담을 반영했다. 국제비상경제권한법(IEEPA) 관세 환급액이 이를 일부 상쇄했다.

사업 및 영업 실적

경영진은 도매 판매(sell-in)와 소매 판매(sell-through) 간의 격차가 주로 소매업체의 재고 정상화 및 프로젝트 그래비티에 따른 전략적 채널 변경을 반영한 것이라고 설명했다. 트래거는 여전히 주요 전략 고객사 전체에서 2026 회계연도 소매 판매가 보합세를 유지하고, 연간 그릴 판매량(sell-in)도 최소 보합 수준을 유지할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

소비자들의 저가 제품 선호 현상이 지속되었다. 주요 전략 고객사 기준 600달러 미만 그릴의 연초 대비 누적 소매 판매량은 두 자릿수 성장률을 기록했다. 트래거는 3분기 해당 파트너들을 통해 전년 동기보다 더 많은 그릴 수량을 판매했으나, 제품 구성 변화(믹스 효과)로 평균판매가격(ASP)에 압박을 받았다. 경영진은 트래거의 평균판매가격이 전체 카테고리 평균 수준의 2배 이상을 유지하고 있다고 밝혔다.

회사는 웨스트우드(Westwood)와 아이언 탑(Iron Top) 등의 제품을 통해 제품 라인업을 확대하고 있다. 웨스트우드는 베이스(Base) 및 엑셀(Excel) 모델 전반에 걸쳐 700~800달러로 가격이 책정되었다. 경영진은 2027년에 추가 제품 출시가 계획되어 있다고 전했다.

펠릿 매출은 저가 제품과의 경쟁 및 소매 채널 독점권 변화의 영향으로 어려움을 겪었다. 트래거는 펠릿 판매처 확대 및 매장 내 진열 개선으로 이에 대응하고 있다.

트래거의 인플루언서 파트너들은 3분기 동안 전년 동기 대비 50% 이상 증가한 2억 8,400만 회 이상의 노출을 기록했다. 이 중 약 절반은 브랜드에 새롭게 참여한 크리에이터로부터 발생했으며, 오가닉 도달 범위의 약 70%는 기존에 트래거를 팔로우하지 않던 소비자들로부터 나왔다. 회사가 발표한 고객순추천지수(NPS)는 65를 기록했다.

로우스(Lowe’s) 입점은 3분기 중 시작되었다. 11월 2일 Lowes.com에서 판매가 시작되었으며, 블랙 프라이데이에 앞서 펠릿 유통이 예정되었고, 주요 매장 입점은 2027년 2월~3월 일부 로우스 매장을 대상으로 계획되어 있다. 경영진은 로우스 입점이 신규 고객 확보 및 다년간의 성장 기회를 제공할 것으로 기대하고 있다.

프로젝트 그래비티는 2026 회계연도에 3,000만 달러의 추가 가치를 창출하여 누적 가치 창출액 5,000만 달러를 달성하는 궤도를 유지하고 있다. 또한 이 프로그램은 재고 및 운영 비용을 줄이는 동시에 소매 전문가, 머천다이징 및 소매업체 미디어 네트워크에 대한 투자를 지원했다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 컨테이너 부족 및 아시아 태풍으로 지연되었던 물량이 인식되고 로우스의 초기 재고 입고가 본격화됨에 따라 4분기 매출이 전년 동기 대비 성장할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 지연된 물량은 이미 10월에 출하를 마쳤다.

4분기 매출총이익률은 매출 증가, 창고 및 판촉비 레버리지 효과 개선, 직수입 비중 확대에 힘입어 전 분기 대비 개선될 것으로 예상된다.

경영진은 2026 회계연도 관세 환급에 따른 비교 기반에도 불구하고 2027년에 매출 성장 및 조정 EBITDA 확대를 기대하고 있다. 회사는 2027년에 대한 구체적인 가이던스는 제공하지 않았다.

위험 요소 및 주시 사항

• 2026 회계연도 3분기 실적 비교 대상인 전년 동기에는 관세 불확실성 속에서 약 2,000만 달러 규모의 소매업체 재고 매입 증가분이 포함되어 있었다.
• 임의소비재에 대한 소비 지출이 여전히 압박을 받고 있는 가운데 수요는 보다 접근성 높은 가격대로 이동하고 있다.
• 저가 펠릿 제품과의 경쟁 및 판매 채널 독점권 변화가 단기적 압박 요인으로 작용하고 있다.
• 로우스를 통한 유통망 확대가 독점권이 중요했던 기존 소매 파트너사들에 단기적인 영향을 미쳤다.
• 컨테이너 부족과 아시아 태풍으로 인해 3분기 출하 물량이 4분기로 지연되었다.
• 경영진은 2027년에 들어서며 운송비용 관련 부정적 여풍이 이어질 것으로 지속 예상하고 있다. 앞서 언급되었던 약 100만 달러의 영향 수준에는 실질적인 변화가 없다.
• 2027 회계연도 실적은 2026 회계연도에 인식된 IEEPA 관세 환급금으로 인해 만만치 않은 기저효과 부담에 직면할 것이다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

경영진은 향후 12개월간 신규 고객 확보를 이끌 두 가지 주요 동력으로 진입 가격대 낮추기와 신규 소매 채널 확대를 꼽았다. 프로모션 가격은 최저 $389까지 내려가, 트래거가 프리미엄 입지를 유지하면서도 신규 소비자를 공략할 수 있게 해주었다.

로우스 입점과 관련해 경영진은 4분기 재고 입고 규모가 의미 있는 수준이며, 소비자 대상의 본격적인 입점은 2027년 봄에 시작된다고 밝혔다. 트래거는 차별화된 제품, 소매 판매 전문가, 소매 미디어 지출을 통해 로우스, 홈디포(Home Depot), 에이스(Ace) 전반에 걸쳐 투자를 늘릴 계획이다.

4분기 성장에 대한 신뢰와 관련하여 경영진은 이미 10월로 이월된 매출과 이벤트성 로우스 주문을 언급했다. 회사 측은 2026 회계연도를 저점으로 설명하며 4분기부터 매출 및 수익성 성장이 재개될 것으로 전망했다.

실적발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Traeger Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Stephanie Reed, Vice President of Finance, Strategy and Investor Relations. Stephanie, please go ahead.

Stephanie Read

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining Traeger's call to discuss its third quarter 2026 results, which were released this afternoon and can be found at our website at investors.traeger.com. I'm Stephanie Reed, Vice President of Finance, Strategy and Investor Relations at Traeger. With me on the call today are Jeremy Andrus, our Chief Executive Officer; and Joey Hord, our Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, let me remind you that participants on this call will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations, and those statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in Traeger's reports filed with the SEC. This call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss adjusted net income or loss per share, free cash flow and net debt, which we believe are useful supplemental measures. The most comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures contained herein to such GAAP measures are included in our earnings release and investor presentation, which are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at investors.traeger.com.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Jeremy Andres, Chief Executive Officer of Traeger. Jeremy?

Jeremy Andrus

Thanks, Steph, and thank you all for joining us. As we have said all year, 2026 is a transition year for Traeger. Our third quarter revenue came in at the low end of the pacing we outlined last quarter with some activity shifting between Q3 and Q4. Joey will walk through the financial results in more detail. More importantly, there has been no change in our conviction in the progress we're making across the business. We are narrowing our revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges while maintaining the midpoint of each and reiterating our gross margin outlook.

We also continue to expect a return to year-over-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter. Beyond the quarter, the strategic work we've been doing throughout 2026 is increasingly translating into tangible progress. The Traeger brand is reaching new consumers. The product portfolio is addressing a broader range of price points. Lowe's expansion is moving from planning to execution and project gravity has created greater capacity to invest behind the consumer and our strategic retail partners. As we look ahead, I believe those initiatives are positioning Traeger to exit 2026 with improving momentum and enter 2027 with a stronger foundation for sustainable, profitable growth.

Let me start with the brand. One of our priorities over the last several quarters has been expanding Traeger's reach beyond our traditional audience. We've evolved our influencer strategy and increase our investment behind creators who can introduce Traeger and wood-fired cooking to new consumers. We're seeing encouraging signs of strategy is working. In Q3, our influencer partners generated more than 284 million impressions, up over 50% year-over-year, with approximately half coming from creators who are new to Traeger. And approximately 70% of our organic reach came from consumers who don't currently follow Traeger. Reach usually comes at the expense of engagement, but we are growing both.

Finally, our Net Promoter Score of 65 is the highest in the category and meaningfully above the next closest competitor. That tells us we're expanding Traeger's reach while maintaining the consumer advocacy that has always been 1 of the brand's greatest strengths. Reaching new consumers also requires having the right products to meet their needs. One of the clearest dynamics we've seen this year has been a consumer shift toward more accessible price points with double-digit growth in our year-to-date sell-through on drills below $600 across our strategic accounts.

While the shift towards lower price points creates an ASP headwind, our sell-through data shows that consumers purchase more Traeger Grill units at our strategic retail partners in the third quarter than they did a year ago. In other words, we're bringing more households into the Traeger brand even as consumers gravitate towards lower price points. Our strategy is to offer compelling products across our broader price range while preserving the quality, innovation and experience that differentiates Traeger. And the new Westwood and Iron Top families of products are good examples, bringing Traeger innovation to more accessible price points. And even with that mix shift, our ASP remains more than twice that of the overall category.

In pellets, we're seeing a similar shift toward value with increased competition at lower price points and changes in exclusivity across certain retail channels, creating near-term pressures. We're responding by expanding the availability of Traeger pellets across our retail network and improving retail presentation and visibility. Over time, we believe broader distribution together with the quality and flavored differentiation of our pellets will strengthen our position in the category. Each new Traeger household creates a longer-term relationship across pellets, accessories, future grill purchases and the broader Traeger ecosystem. That's why we view expanding the installed base as an important driver of long-term value even when the initial entry point is at a lower price.

We're also excited about our innovation pipeline. We have new products planned for launch in 2027 that will extend the Traeger experience to even more consumers and we'll share more as we get closer to launch. Making Traeger more accessible isn't only about product and price. It's also about being where consumers choose to shop. Following our announcement last quarter, we initiated our national expansion with Lowe's during Q3. Lowe's is 1 of the largest distribution expansions in Traeger's recent history. Our research tells us the Lowe's shopper is incremental to consumers we reach today. That's true by geography in markets where we've been underpenetrated, and it's true of the shopper with a strong DIY based and household mix that fits our core consumer segments.

We believe this makes Lowe's another meaningful platform for household acquisition. At the same time, our strategy is not simply about adding doors. The Home Depot and Ace remains strategically important partners, and we're continuing to invest behind both relationships. At the Home Depot, we've doubled our return on ad spend by focusing investment on higher-performing media and audiences. That's contributing to solid year-to-date sell-through performance. At Ace, we made initial investments in their retail media network this year that drove incremental returns with plans to scale that partnership in 2027. Our objective is to build a stronger marketplace for Traeger across all of our strategic retail partners. That includes better sell-through data and tools, so partner orders track more closely to consumer demand.

With broader distribution, a more complete product portfolio, and increasingly sophisticated retail execution, we believe we have more ways to reach consumers and convert them into Traeger households. Supporting all of this is the work we've done through Project Gravity. When we launched Gravity, we said the objective wasn't simply to reduce costs. It was to simplify trigger and create the capacity to invest behind the opportunities with the greatest potential to drive profitable growth. We're now beginning to put that capacity to work. We're redirecting investment towards areas that can directly support consumer acquisition and strengthen our retail execution, including expanding our retail sales specialist program, improving merchandising and fixturing and building our capabilities across retailer media networks. That's an important part of the value of Project Gravity, not simply operating with a lower cost base but directing our resources behind the opportunities we believe can drive the greatest long-term value.

As we look toward the end of 2026, we believe we will be entering 2027 from a stronger strategic position with greater capacity to invest behind growth, as sell-in and sell-through come back into alignment and these investments mature, we believe Traeger is well positioned to return to profitable growth in 2027. The macro environment remains uncertain. And while the consumer environment has weighed on discretionary spending, we believe the initiatives I've discussed today don't require a dramatically better near-term consumer environment to succeed. They require strong execution, and that's where our focus is, expanding distribution, meeting consumers across more price points, growing the installed base, showing up better at retail, and putting our resources where the returns are greatest.

We spent much of 2026 doing the difficult work to reposition the business. As we close the year, our focus increasingly shifts from repositioning the execution, translating that work into more trigger households, broader distribution and profitable growth. I'm confident in the strategy and the opportunity ahead.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Joey.

Joey Hord

Thanks, Jeremy, and good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter results reflected 3 revenue pressures we've discussed throughout the year, channel optimization under project gravity, competitive pressure and meter and our actions to improve marketplace health. The year-over-year comparison was particularly pronounced this quarter because we lapped approximately $20 million of elevated retailer inventory purchases in Q3 of last year in an uncertain tariff environment. Separately, Q3 revenue came in at the low end of the pacing we outlined last quarter due primarily to timing.

Certain shipments and promotional activity shifted from Q3 into Q4, including delays from container constraints that were amplified by a typhoon in Asia. We've already realized that revenue in October, and it is reflected in our full year outlook. On our last call, we said we expected substantially all of our remaining adjusted EBITDA to come in Q4. Our Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of $3 million reflects that timing.

Before I walk through the numbers in more depth, I want to reinforce 3 points that provide important context for our confidence in the business. First, the divergence between sell-in and sell-through this year primarily reflects channel inventory normalization and strategic talent divestment to drive profitability. We continue to expect roughly flat '26 sell-through across our strategic accounts, which we believe indicates that underlying consumer demand is considerably healthier than reported revenue one would suggest.

Second, underlying unit trends remain healthy. We continue to expect full year Grill unit sell-in to be at least flat year-over-year, driven by a large fourth quarter that includes our initial Lowe's load-in and reflects the consumer shift towards more accessible price points that Jeremy discussed. And third, Project Gravity continues to deliver meaningful benefits across our cost structure, working capital and cash generation, as demonstrated by our year-to-date results. Taken together, these factors along with our entry into Lowe's support our expectation to return to revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in the fourth quarter and position us to return to profitable growth in '27.

With that context, let me walk through the quarter and our outlook. Third quarter revenues decreased 40% year-over-year to $75 million. Looking at category performance, grow revenues decreased 48% to $40 million in the third quarter, reflecting the marketplace health and channel optimization actions I mentioned earlier as well as the mix shift towards more accessible price points that Jeremy discussed. Consumables revenues declined 23% to $19 million, primarily driven by lower wood pellet sales related to similar order timing and changes in retail channel dynamics. Accessories revenues decreased 34% to $16 million, primarily from lower sales of meter smart thermometers.

Gross profit for the third quarter decreased to $25 million from $49 million in the third quarter of $25 million. Gross profit margin for the third quarter contracted 520 basis points year-over-year to 33.5%, driven primarily by the timing of trade spend, deleverage of fixed warehousing expenses on lower revenue. and continued margin pressure in our meter business, partially offset by an IPA tariff refund benefit.

Sales and marketing expense declined to $14 million in the third quarter, down $6 million year-over-year. while general and administrative expenses declined $2 million year-over-year to $20 million, primarily reflecting lower employee-related expenses and actions taken under Project Gravity. Net loss was $29 million or $10.33 per diluted share compared to $90 million or $33.46 per diluted share in the prior year period. The year-over-year improvement primarily reflects the anniversary of a $75 million noncash goodwill impairment recorded last year.

Adjusted net loss was $19 million or $6.77 per diluted share compared to $22 million or $8.31 per diluted share last year. Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $3 million, down from income of $14 million in the prior year. lower revenue pressured profitability in the quarter, the savings generated through Project Gravity meaningfully mitigated the impact and continue to support our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook.

Let me now discuss the balance sheet. We generated $8 million of free cash flow in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date free cash flow to $49 million, including $16 million related to the IEEPA refund and $12 million related to an employee retention credit discussed on prior earnings calls. At the end of the third quarter, cash and cash equivalents totaled $68 million, compared to $20 million at the end of the previous fiscal year. We ended the quarter with $403 million of total debt, resulting in total net debt of $335 million.

We ended the third quarter with a healthy liquidity position of $167 million. Our credit facilities remain completely undrawn and combined with $68 million of cash, we believe we have ample liquidity to support the business. Inventory at the quarter was $79 million, down from $99 million at year-end, primarily reflecting lower meter inventory and SKU rationalization and business simplification associated with project gravity. Combined with our free cash flow performance, this is tangible evidence of the improvements we've made in working capital efficiency.

Now turning to our fiscal '26 outlook. As we approach the end of the year and have greater visibility into our expected results, we are narrowing our revenue guidance range to $440 million to $460 million from $435 million to $465 million previously, while maintaining the same midpoint. We continue to expect gross margin of 40% to 41%. We are also narrowing our adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $59 million to $65 million, adjusted from $57 million to $67 million previously while also maintaining the same midpoint.

Our outlook continues to imply a return to year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, driven by 2 primary factors: the recovery of shipments that shifted out of Q3 and the ramp in initial load-ins associated with our Lowe's expansion. Together, these factors support both our full year revenue outlook and our expectation for year-over-year growth in Q4. We also expect gross margin to improve sequentially in Q4, supported by higher revenue driving warehousing and trade spend leverage as well as higher direct import mix, which supports our full year gross margin outlook of 40% to 41%.

We are reiterating our free cash flow guidance of at least $30 million on a year-to-date free cash flow generation of $49 million. We remain on track to deliver an incremental $30 million of value capture for Project Gravity within fiscal '26 which is consistent with prior expectations and brings the total value capture to $50 million. Importantly, we believe the impact extends beyond the $50 million. Gravity has fundamentally improved how we operate with a leaner cost structure, lower inventory and stronger cash generation. These improvements are durable and leave us with a structurally stronger financial model as we return to growth.

I want to close with how we're thinking about '27. Importantly, our expectations do not depend on the significant improvement in the consumer macroeconomic environment. We expect '27 with broader distribution, a leaner cost structure, lower inventory and a more efficient operating model, giving us multiple levers to drive improved financial performance even against a still challenging consumer backdrop. While we're not providing '27 guidance today, we believe the actions we have taken position us to return to profitable growth in we intend to maintain the same discipline around working capital, cash generation and capital allocation that we've demonstrated this year.

So Q3 was challenging from a reported revenue and earnings standpoint. We believe the underlying financial trajectory of the business is improving. We remain on track against our full year objectives and the actions we've taken this year position us for stronger growth, profitability and cash generation over time.

With that, we'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Phillip Blee with William Blair.

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Phillip Blee

Jeremy, you've spoken a bit about kind of the efforts and some of the early successes you've seen in reaching a new subset of consumers -- so I guess how do you think about your ability to then convert some of those newer cohorts? What's your strategy there? And then how quickly do you think you could start to see some of those benefits flow through the P&L?

Jeremy Andrus

Phillip, thanks for your question. So a couple of thoughts on that. The first is that we've worked hard to get down to some lower price points, believing that we have the ability to still at a premium price relative to industry attract a new consumer. If you look at where gas products are priced. They tend to be lower price points on balance and in hitting as low as a $389 price point during promotion season, we feel like we're attracting a consumer who's paying up and willing to try the solution as we reach more accessible price points.

So we believe that pricing has been incremental to our customer acquisition. We are seeing growth in unit volume. We saw that, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, in the third quarter. We also believe that our ability to attract a new consumer is partly dependent upon channel. It's one of the reasons why we are expanding channel next year. And we feel like that gives us access to both new geography, in some cases, new consumers. And then the rest of it is back to a traditional playbook in consumer products, which is really understand the consumer have a thoughtful segmentation and know how to speak to each of those consumers with a different narrative in an effort to ensure that we're we are speaking to their needs as consumers. So it's a variety of things. I would say the 2 pieces that are driving incremental customer acquisition or that will, over the next 12 months are both price and new channel.

Phillip Blee

Okay. Great. Super helpful. And then I know it's still early, but maybe can you help us think about how meaningful the Lowe's partnership could be whether or not then we should think about any net impact from any fallout with existing partners that we're looking for more exclusivity. And then just how we should think about the general ramp here, this a 2027 story? Or is this more of a 2028 story in terms of a bigger incremental top line lift?

Jeremy Andrus

Yes, sure. So the rollout in Lowe's is tracking to plan. Lowes.com was launched on November 2 launched this week. Pellets begin to reap stores ahead of Black Friday. The main launch really is the spring of '27. Somewhere between February and March, we will roll out fixtures in a subset of the Lowe's doors. We're proud of how we're merchandising the brand there. And we feel good about a long-term strategic partner that we're building with Lowe's as it gives us the ability to get to an incremental consumer, and we feel like it's -- there will be multiple years of growth. we do have a nice load-in of Lowe's in the fourth quarter of this year. That's just their seasonal load in cycle and ensuring that retail gets set in the first quarter of 2027, and we expect it to be a nice grower over many years.

In terms of the impact on other accounts, notably where exclusivity was an important part of partnership we're doubling down our efforts to ensure we are the best partners that we're bringing the right product, the right differentiation that we are focused on investments, both in-store on the ground with our retail sales specialist program and driving demand by investing in their retail media networks. There has been some near-term impact that we've discussed. And we knew that, that was going to be part of the result of the decisions that we've made. But we really believe that if we build the brand and the product experience, the right way for our end consumer, and we show up as great partners that we can earn that business back.

We really do believe that on balance, this is an opportunity to get to more consumers. We know that we need to continue to service all of our current channel as effectively as we can, and we will be making incremental investments in those channels. because of scale and because we're adding new channels. So we feel over time, it's a net positive. There are certainly -- there are some near-term bumps that we'd anticipated and which are inherent in our guidance, but we think it's -- we continue to believe it's the right thing for us and that it's the right thing for our channels as it gives us the scale to invest in product innovation brand and the overall go-to-market experience.

Operator

Your next question comes from Joe Feldman with TAG.

Joseph Feldman

I wanted to just clarify, with regard to the pricing that you got and adjustments you've made, is that across the line of products? Or is it really just that the more entry-priced product that you have there in the stores?

Jeremy Andrus

Yes, Joe. So we have been really trying to get to lower price points and doing that by finding efficiencies of scale and efficiencies in the supply chain through avenues such as direct import, so that we can really take cost out and offer a better price and more value to the consumer. The intent of our product line is to create trade-up stories across the line and compelling reasons for a consumer to buy in the price range and in the feature set that they're looking for.

And so as we step back and think about the line getting to opening price point serves a very specific purpose, and that purpose is to acquire an incremental consumer. As we build the features and the benefits across the line, the intent is to meet a consumer where they are to ensure that we're offering as much innovation, quality and value at a price point. And then it's on us to be good at product marketing to really articulate to a consumer why they should spend more to have a better product experience. Our strategy is always to build innovation at premium price points and then cascade that innovation downstream over the course of many product launches.

Westwood is a product that we began to launch mid last year. We've got a lot of work to do to take it to channel in this upcoming year, it hits an accessible price point at $700 and $800 between Westwood Base and Westwood Excel. It has innovation. It's a connected grill. It's got new features and benefits. And we believe there's a compelling reason to trade up from the opening price point, our first-generation Pro up into the Westwood. And it's with that mindset that we're always building our product strategy. So as we bring old technology at scale down to lower price points, it gives us the ability to introduce better experiences at higher price points.

Joseph Feldman

That's really helpful explanation. And then just if I could follow up with one more. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of fuel and transportation costs and the impact there? We're hearing about that from so many companies these days. And I know you guys obviously have a large heavy equipment that you're shipping across the ocean. So maybe you could talk a little bit about that impact. .

Joey Hord

Yes. Joe, it's Joey. So we are absolutely subject to increase in fuel cost, et cetera. We on the previous call, I believe we referenced sort of a $1 million headwind. Keep in mind that, that's materially not changing as fuel rates have fluctuated over the past few months. Keep in mind that most of our freight is long term in Asia from a contract standpoint. So we do believe that there is going to be a headwind as we enter '27. We planned for it -- as of right now, we are appropriately building our freight rates and our increased rates into our guidance for full year.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian McNamara with Canaccord Genuity.

Unknown Analyst

This is [ Madison Calnan ] on for Brian. Acknowledging timing impacts optically, it looks like another top line miss -- what gives you confidence that Q4 and then 2027 will be the return to growth that the market has been anticipating for some time now? .

Joey Hord

Yes, I'll take that one. So thanks for the question. So first off, I think Q3, what we're experiencing is just a tough comp year-over-year. So if you go back to FY '25, there were some pacing dynamics driven by the tariff environment. where Q2 revenue paced into Q3 and Q4 paced into Q3 as well. And then we did have that onetime order in Q3 as well, which buoyed the results. So overall, the comparison was tough. Q3 in FY '25 was the only quarter we grew. As far as the confidence a year, we have had revenue flip from Q3 into Q4 that was driven by a onetime event regarding shipping container availability via which I prepared in my opening remarks via a typhoon. that revenue has already shipped and in October.

And then additionally, just what gives us confidence is the addition of Lowe's. Most of our revenue in Q4 is event-driven regarding orders for a load behind loads. And that's why really we've tightened the range top line and bottom line.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Benedict with Baird.

Peter Benedict

Joey, I don't know if you -- if you'd be willing to kind of put a number on maybe the shift in sales from the, I guess, the typhoon shipment issue 3Q to 4Q, it even and even on the lows selling, just so we get a sense for just the magnitude there. And then as we think about the growth next year, the profit growth, so you're saying that you think you guys can grow your EBITDA next year even as you're cycling kind of the tariff refunds that you're getting this year, I just want to clarify that's what you're saying. And then can you give us a sense of maybe what that tariff refund was in this quarter? I know it wasn't huge, but just curious what that -- when that number was .

Joey Hord

Okay. So the timing shift, I mean, you could probably just do the stop math on it and figure out based on where we landed in the factor reiterating guidance what this timing shift was on that. it was material, and we did not guide to Q3, but we did speak about the shaping of the P&L. As far as the low size, it is material for us. It is -- there is a meaningful load- in Q4. It's event-driven. And it is driving what we're considering or return to growth. We referred to this as a trough year. We do believe that Q4 just implied in the guidance is going to be return to growth and profitable growth. And that's really going to be the start of quarter-over-quarter growth within FY '27. We're obviously not guiding to that yet, but we are excited about the partnership. We're excited about the product and innovation order offering at more accessible price points. And we do think that's going to be a nice tailwind as we deliver growth and profitable growth in Q4.

As far as the tariff refund, we have talked about the 16.5% approximately IEEPA tariff refund. We've collected nearly 100% of it. It's currently in our guidance. So that does create a headwind when we think about FY '27 and copying that versus FY '26. At the same time, we are deliberately talking about a return to growth and expansion of EBITDA next year, I mean that we do believe, even with the tough comparison when you normalize for the tariff refund, we are going to be driving both top line and bottom line growth.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.