VPG 2026년 3분기 실적 콘퍼런스 콜: 사상 최대 센서 수주로 2027년 성장 전망 뒷받침

핵심 요약

• VPG는 2026회계연도 3분기 GAAP 순매출이 8,510만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했습니다. 고객에게 전달된 관세 환급금 230만 달러를 제외한 조정 매출은 8,740만 달러로, 전분기 대비 4%, 전년 동기 대비 10% 증가했습니다.
• 조정 수주액은 1억 300만 달러를 기록해 합산 수주출하비율(book-to-bill ratio)은 1.17을 나타냈습니다. 3개 사업 부문 모두 1.0을 상회했으며, 분기 말 기준 수주잔고는 1억 5,100만 달러를 기록했습니다.
• 센서 부문 매출은 전년 동기 대비 21% 증가한 3,840만 달러를 기록했습니다. 수주액은 AI 관련 인프라 및 항공우주·방산 수요에 힘입어 2분기 연속 분기 최고치인 5,170만 달러에 달했습니다.
• 조정 매출총이익률은 전분기 대비 개선된 39.3%를 기록했고, 조정 EBITDA는 820만 달러로 증가했으며, 조정 잉여현금흐름은 550만 달러로 회복되었습니다.
• 경영진은 2026회계연도 4분기 매출 가이던스를 8,400만~9,100만 달러로 제시했으며, 생산 능력 확장에 따라 2027회계연도 1분기 매출이 9,000만 달러 이상에 달할 수 있다고 밝혔습니다.
• 수주 모멘텀과 수주잔고를 바탕으로 경영진은 2027년에 10%~12%의 매출 성장 가능성이 있다고 보고 있습니다. 다만 이는 생산 능력 확충 실행, 고객사의 시점 조정 및 최종 시장 상황에 따라 달라질 수 있습니다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

센서 부문

센서 부문은 VPG의 핵심 성장 동력이었습니다. 매출은 전분기 대비 15%, 전년 동기 대비 21% 증가한 3,840만 달러를 기록했습니다. 수주액은 2분기 대비 8% 증가한 5,170만 달러로 분기 역대 최고치를 기록했으며, 수주출하비율은 1.35를 나타냈습니다.

반도체 전공정, 후공정 및 공정 제어 장비에 사용되는 정밀 저항기와 고속 광통신 전송 인프라용 제품이 수요를 이끌었습니다. 항공전자 및 방산 수요 역시 기존 프로그램과 차세대 프로그램 전반에서 견조하게 유지되었습니다.

경영진은 AI 관련 수요가 센서 부문의 약 20%~30%를 차지하는 것으로 추정했습니다. 이 추정치에는 반도체, 광통신 데이터 인프라 및 잠재적인 휴머노이드 로보틱스 응용 분야가 포함됩니다.

휴머노이드 로보틱스 수주액은 약 20만 달러, 매출은 30만 달러였습니다. 초기 고객사 한 곳이 공급망 확장 문제로 양산 확대 시점을 4분기로 연기했습니다. VPG는 4분기에 수주가 점진적으로 증가하기 시작해 2027년까지 가속화될 것으로 예상하면서도, 고객사의 시점은 여전히 불확실하다고 강조했습니다.

웨잉 솔루션 부문

조정 매출은 2,690만 달러로 전분기 대비 11%, 전년 동기 대비 2% 감소했습니다. 전분기 대비 감소는 주로 공정 계량 제품 중심의 유럽 지역 계절적 약세를 반영합니다.

조정 수주액은 2,860만 달러, 수주출하비율은 1.06을 기록했습니다. 산업용 계량 및 의료 수요는 전반적으로 안정적이었습니다. 2분기의 대규모 반기 주문에 따라 감소한 전기자전거(e-bike) 수주는 강세를 보인 운송 수요로 상쇄되었습니다.

측정 시스템 부문

철강 시장용 DSI 열-기계 모사 평가 시스템의 매출 증가에 힘입어 매출은 전분기 대비 10%, 전년 동기 대비 8% 증가했습니다. KELK 생산도 회복세를 이어갔습니다.

수주액은 철강 관련 수주가 40% 증가한 데 힘입어 전분기 대비 19% 증가한 약 2,220만 달러를 기록했습니다. 자동차 충돌 안전 시험용 DTS 수주는 2026년 최고치를 기록했으며, 항공우주 및 방산 수주도 강세를 유지했습니다.

VPG는 2026년 첫 9개월 동안 420만 달러의 비용 절감을 달성했으며, 연간 기준 약 600만 달러의 절감 목표를 향해 차질 없이 나아가고 있습니다. 이러한 조치는 제조 최적화, 자동화 및 조달 효율화를 통해 약 2,000만 달러의 절감을 목표로 하는 3개년 계획의 일환입니다.

경영진 가이던스

VPG는 2026년 3분기 환율이 유지된다고 가정할 때 2026년 4분기 순매출을 8,400만~9,100만 달러로 예상합니다. 이 가이던스에는 경영진이 손익 중립적이라고 설명한 고객 대상 예상 관세 환급금은 제외되었습니다.

4분기 가이던스 범위는 예정된 수주잔고 인도분, 3분기 대비 적은 조업 일수, 휴머노이드 로보틱스 고객사의 시점 관련 불확실성을 반영합니다. 회사는 특히 센서 부문을 중심으로 제조 인력의 채용 및 교육, 설비 증설을 지속하고 있습니다.

경영진은 계획된 생산 능력 확장을 통해 2027년 1분기 매출이 9,000만 달러 이상을 기록할 수 있다고 밝혔습니다. 또한 1억 5,100만 달러의 수주잔고, 지속적인 AI 관련 수요, 항공우주 및 방산 활성화, 산업 시장의 회복 조짐에 힘입어 2027년 10%~12%의 매출 성장 가능성이 있다고 보고 있습니다.

VPG는 2026년 전체 실효 영업 세율을 약 45%, 설비 투자(CapEx)를 1,400만~1,600만 달러로 예상하고 있습니다.

리스크 및 관전 포인트

• 비우호적인 환율 변동으로 인해 3분기 조정 영업이익이 전년 동기 대비 340만 달러 감소했으며, 올해 누적 영업이익은 810만 달러 감소했습니다.
• 지역별 이익 비중의 변화로 3분기 조정 세율이 상반기 37%에서 48%로 상승해 조정 주당순이익(EPS)이 약 0.03달러 감소했습니다.
• 고객사들이 복잡한 공급망을 확장함에 따라 휴머노이드 로보틱스의 양산 시점은 여전히 유동적입니다.
• 센서 부문의 생산 능력 확장에는 신규 설비, 추가 제조 공장, 인력 채용 및 직원 교육이 필요합니다. 경영진은 제품 학습 곡선(learning curve)으로 인해 생산 능력 및 리드타임 개선에 시간이 걸릴 것이라고 말했습니다.
• 4분기는 3분기보다 조업 일수가 적어 출하량에 추가적인 제약 요소로 작용합니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 하이라이트

경영진은 사업 개발 수주액이 3분기 약 1,200만 달러, 첫 9개월간 3,350만 달러를 기록했다고 확인했습니다. VPG는 연간 4,500만 달러의 2026년 목표 달성을 향해 차질 없이 나아가고 있습니다.

2027년 전망에 대한 질문에 경영진은 분기 말 기준 1억 5,100만 달러의 수주잔고, 3분기와 유사할 것으로 예상되는 4분기 수주 런레이트(run rate), 지속적인 AI 관련 수요, 항공우주 및 방산 부문의 강세, 산업 회복 조짐을 언급했습니다.

생산 능력과 관련해 VPG는 설비를 구매하고 인력을 채용하며 추가 제조 시설 전반에서 생산을 확대하고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 경영진은 이러한 조치로 향후 분기 동안 생산량이 늘고 리드타임이 단축될 것으로 기대합니다.

회사는 또한 이전에 연기되었던 KELK 주문의 일부가 3분기에 이행되었으며, 대부분은 4분기에 인도될 것으로 예상된다고 확인했습니다.

실적발표 콘퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to the VPG Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Steve Cantor, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Steve Cantor

Great. Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to VPG's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our press release and slides are available on our website, vpgsensors.com. An audio recording of today's call will also be available on our website. On the call today, we will be -- today's remarks are governed by the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Actual results may differ materially from our forward-looking statements, and there could be no assurance that the results discussed today, including the targets in our operating model, will be achieved. For a discussion of the risks associated with VPG's operations, please refer to our SEC filings, particularly our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, and our other recent SEC filings.

We also present certain GAAP and non-GAAP measures in our press release and on this call, and we believe these measures provide useful information about the operating performance of our business and should be considered together with the corresponding GAAP measures. Before beginning the call, I want to note that we received $2.3 million in tariff refunds from the U.S. federal government, and we intend to pass those refunds on to our customers. GAAP net revenue for the third quarter was $85.1 million. Third quarter adjusted net revenue was $87.4 million, excluding $2.3 million of refunds that had no impact on gross profit.

Under GAAP, these refunds are reflected as reductions to revenue and cost of products sold. Unless otherwise noted, all third quarter financial measures discussed today exclude these refunds, including adjusted gross margin. The refunds have no impact on prior periods. Joining me on the call today are Ziv Shoshani, President and CEO; and Bill Clancy, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Ziv for his prepared remarks. You can read off the quarterly presentation. Ziv?

Ziv Shoshani

Thank you, Steve. I will begin with commentary on the third quarter. Bill will then review our financial results and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Moving to Slide 4, third quarter highlights, booking and sales. Our third quarter reflected continued strong demand, improving revenues and margins and ongoing progress in our strategic initiatives. Adjusted revenue was $87.4 million, our highest quarterly level in 3 years, increasing 4% sequentially and 10% year-over-year.

Adjusted orders of $103 million were driven by continued record demand in our Sensors segment from AI-related markets, including semiconductor equipment, data center infrastructure as well as aerospace and defense applications. Bookings from our business development initiatives totaled $11.9 million in the third quarter and $33.5 million year-to-date, keeping us on track to achieve our $45 million full year goal.

Our consolidated book-to-bill ratio was 1.17, marking the eighth consecutive quarter at or above 1.0 and underscoring continued positive demand trends, led by the Sensors book-to-bill ratio of 1.35, all 3 segments achieved ratios above 1.0. This sustained order momentum is driving a growing backlog and increasing our visibility into 2027.

We continue to add manufacturing capacity and personnel to support our growth, particularly in Sensors. Our order momentum in key markets and our growing backlog set the stage for potential revenue growth of 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the annual target rate in our 3-year plan. Adjusted gross margin improved to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter. Third quarter cash from operations was $11.1 million and free cash flow was $5.5 million.

Adjusted EPS of $0.14 reflected an adjusted 48% tax rate compared to the 37% through the first half of 2026, driven by a shift in the geographic mix of income. The higher tax rate reduced adjusted EPS by approximately $0.03 per diluted share. Regarding our operational improvement initiatives, we delivered nearly $4.2 million of cost savings year-to-date and remain on track to achieve approximately $6 million of savings this year.

These actions represent the first phase of our 3-year plan to deliver approximately $20 million of cost reduction initiatives through manufacturing footprint optimization, increased automation and procurement efficiencies across our global supply chain. I'll now review performance by segment.

Moving to Slide 5. Sensors third quarter highlights. Beginning with our Sensors segment, third quarter revenue of $38.4 million grew 15% from the second quarter and 21% from a year ago. The increase from the second quarter primarily reflected higher sales to the test and measurement market. Bookings of $51.7 million remained robust, increasing 8% sequentially to a second consecutive all-time quarterly record. This resulted in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.35.

Demand continued to be driven by investments in AI-related infrastructure. We recorded strong orders for precision resistors sold to semiconductor front-end, back-end and process control equipment manufacturers. Bookings for manufacturers of high-speed fiber optic transmission equipment remained elevated, supporting the continued build-out of data center infrastructure. We saw continued positive trends in avionics and defense applications with sustained demand from both established and next-generation defense programs.

Turning to humanoid robotics. We remain highly optimistic about the long-term opportunity. While the market is still in its early stages, the engineering complexity, demanding performance requirement and the need to scale sophisticated supply chain create an attractive opportunity for VPG. Humanoid-related bookings were approximately $200,000 and sales were $300,000 in the third quarter as our initial customer shifted the start of its production ramp to Q4, citing the challenges of scaling a highly complex supply chain -- we are prepared to support customer planned production volume and now expect orders to increase gradually beginning in the current quarter, with volume accelerating further through 2027.

We also received an investment from this customer to support our capacity expansion related to humanoid, which we view as a solid endorsement of our value proposition and their commitment to VPG as a supplier. Regarding customer #2, discussions continue to progress well and the potential revenue opportunity could be larger than we previously anticipated. We are also supporting several other humanoid robotics customers as they advance from prototype development to commercialization, while expanding our engagement with the additional prospective customers across the market.

Moving to Slide 6, Weighing Solutions third quarter highlights. Turning to our Weighing Solutions segment. Third quarter adjusted revenue of $26.9 million, which excludes $2.3 million of tariff refunds to customers, declined 11% from the second quarter and were down 2% from a year ago. The sequential decline reflected seasonal softness in Europe, mainly for process weighing products.

Adjusted orders of $28.6 million were flat with the second quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06. Trends in the industrial weighing market and the medical market were mostly stable. Bookings declined from -- for consumer e-bike applications following a large semiannual order in the second quarter, which was offset by a higher demand in the transportation market.

I am pleased to note that our products are now standard options for onboard weighing on off-highway heavy use trucks for a leading European manufacturers designed to improve efficiency and safety. These solutions are integrated into the vehicle to measure payload during the loading and operations in a harsh environment such as mining and construction.

Moving to Slide 7. Measurement Systems third quarter highlights. Turning to Measurement Systems. Third quarter revenue increased 10% sequentially and 8% year-over-year. The sequential increase was driven by higher sales of DSI's thermal mechanical simulation test systems for the steel market. KELK production continued to recover from the second quarter. Because these products operate in a demanding environment and play a mission-critical role in optimization yields and productivity for steel products, we continue to focus on execution, product quality and customer service.

Orders of approximately $22.2 million increased 19% sequentially, which reflected a 40% increase in steel-related orders. We also had another strong quarter of DTS as bookings related to automotive crash safety testing reached their highest level of 2026 and orders for aerospace and defense applications remain strong.

Moving to Slide 8, priorities and focus. Our key priorities remain centered on 2 areas: accelerating commercialization and growth and driving operational execution and excellence. On the commercial side, we completed the first phase of our company-wide CRM rollout for the Sensors segment, with deployment across the remaining business planned for the fourth quarter and 2027. We rolled out a system and processes for lead management and opportunity management for Sensors.

And we have initiated targeted marketing programs in the humanoid robotics market. We also refreshed our corporate website and started the first phase of our plan to accelerate and streamline the new product development processes. Operationally, we achieved $4.2 million of our targeted $6 million in cost savings for 2026. We continue to optimize and relocate manufacturing for key products to support our long-term cost and productivity objectives.

At the same time, we are expanding production capacity through adding personnel and equipment at key Sensors facilities. Importantly, our manufacturing and supply chain capabilities are in place to support the initial production ramp for humanoid robotics customers. As we look ahead, given the strong order trends, growing backlog, continued execution on our growth strategies, we see potential to achieve revenue in the first quarter of 2027 of $90 million or better. This supports our potential to grow our revenues 10% to 12% in 2027, which is above the targeted annual growth rate in our original 3-year plan.

I will now turn it over to Bill Clancy. Bill?

William Clancy

Thank you, Ziv. Referring to Slide 9 and the reconciliation tables in the slide deck, third quarter 2026 GAAP net revenues was $85.1 million after $2.3 million of tariff refunds passed through to customers with no impact on gross margin. Excluding these refunds, adjusted revenue was $87.4 million. Adjusted gross margin improved sequentially to 39.3% from 38.6% in the second quarter, excluding $141,000 of start-up costs related to expanded production capacity. This was an improvement from 38.6% in the second quarter.

Sequentially by segment, Sensors adjusted gross margin increased to 32.6%, primarily due to higher volume, partially offset by higher manufacturing costs. Weighing Solutions adjusted gross margin of 34.6% declined mainly due to lower volume. Measurement Systems gross margin increased to 56.5%, primarily reflecting higher volume and a favorable product mix.

Moving to Slide 10. Our third quarter operating margin was 3.2%. Excluding the aforementioned start-up costs as well as restructuring, stock-based compensation and severance costs, adjusted operating margin was 4.9%. Selling, general and administrative expense for the third quarter was $31.2 million or 35.7% of revenue, down from second quarter levels due to lower sales commissions and reduced incentive compensation accruals.

Foreign exchange rates continued to represent a significant headwind to profitability. Unfavorable exchange rates reduced third quarter adjusted operating profit by $3.4 million compared with the prior year period. Year-to-date, unfavorable foreign exchange has reduced operating profit by $8.1 million. GAAP net earnings were $559,000 or $0.04 per diluted share. Adjusted net earnings were $1.8 million or $0.14 per diluted share. As Ziv noted earlier, the GAAP tax rate for the third quarter of 2026 was significantly higher than the run rate through the first half of the year. For full year 2026, we are assuming an operational tax rate of approximately 45%.

Moving to Slide 11. We also made meaningful sequential progress in EBITDA and cash flow. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $8.2 million or 9.4% of revenue from $5.2 million or 6.5% of revenue in the second quarter. Capital expenditures were $5.6 million in the third quarter and $10.6 million for the first 9 months of 2026. For full year 2026, we expect CapEx of approximately $14 million to $16 million.

We improved receivable collections during the quarter, which drove adjusted free cash flow to $5.5 million, a $6.9 million sequential improvement from negative $1.4 million in the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, cash was $80.9 million and long-term debt was $15.7 million, resulting in net cash of approximately $65 million. Regarding the outlook, for the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect net revenues of $84 million to $91 million, assuming constant third quarter 2026 exchange rates.

Our guidance excludes expected fourth quarter tariff refunds to customers, which are profit neutral. In summary, order momentum remains strong, led by record demand in Sensors and continued strength in AI-related markets. Our financial performance is improving with sequential gains in adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow while we continue to execute our cost reduction initiatives. And our growing backlog, expanding capacity and commercial execution gives us increased visibility into 2027, supporting our view that revenue growth can exceed the annual target in our 3-year plan.

With that, we will open the call for questions. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from Jaeson Schmidt at Lake Street Capital.

질의응답

Jaeson Schmidt

Just curious if you could disclose what new business development revenue was in Q3? And I guess relatedly, are you still on track to hit that $45 million goal for the year?

Ziv Shoshani

Yes. So yes, we did report a BD for Q3, the BD contribution is $12 million in orders. And for the first 9 months, it's $33.5 million, and we are on track to hit our $45 million target for 2026.

Jaeson Schmidt

Okay. Perfect. And then looking at 2027, obviously, you guys feel pretty confident on next year. Just curious if you could rank order the growth drivers that are giving you the confidence in the '27 outlook.

Ziv Shoshani

So as we look into 2027, first, we see a very solid backlog. For the end of this quarter, we are running at a backlog of $151 million. The expectation is that the order run rate for Q4 will be similar to the third quarter, given the business environment. We do see a continuation in -- from a demand standpoint from our end markets regarding AI-related infrastructure and applications as well as AMS. We do see also some signs in the industrial market in terms of recovery. Therefore, we are optimistic regarding our projection for 2027, which we expect to be 10% to 12% higher revenues in respect to 2026.

Operator

We'll move next to Josh Nichols at B. Riley Securities.

Josh Nichols

Just curious, like looking -- the backlog, the order activity has been exceptionally strong. You're assuming 4Q is kind of similar to 3Q and then there's a nice ramp assumed in 1Q and beyond. What's the right way to think about that wider revenue range that you're giving for 4Q? And what are kind of the puts and takes that would get you potentially to the higher end of that range? Is it order timing on things like humanoids or other parts of the core business like Sensors?

Ziv Shoshani

So if we are looking at the Q4 revenues, our Q4 outlook reflects really our aged backlog and the timing expected to be shipped in Q4, but it also takes into account the number of working days in Q4, which is less than Q3. We are also looking at -- we do continue to hire and train additional manufacturing personnel to increase our manufacturing production, mainly in the Sensors segment.

So all in all, the Q4 revenue projection is based on the backlog, number of working days, while also we increased the output per day. Based on our projected capacity increase, we do believe that we will be able to reach the $90 million or higher in Q1 in respect to revenues. And I'm sorry, what was your other question?

Josh Nichols

I was just curious because the range for 4Q was also a bit wider than you normally give. Normally, it's around $5 million.

Ziv Shoshani

We did give larger ranges in the past. I didn't thought this is a higher range than in the past. I would say that, as you said, there is a certain volatility regarding the humanoid business given the fact that the expected -- the supply chain is more complicated from our customer's standpoint, the supply chain is more complicated than expected. But this is part of the -- you can call it, of the buffer volatility that we also account in our range.

Josh Nichols

Got it. That makes sense. And then last question for me. I mean, the sensors momentum has been exceptionally strong, another quarter, record bookings north of $51 million. I'm just curious how you're thinking about -- given the influx of orders about your capacity lead times and the ability of the company to really convert that backlog into revenue in a timely manner.

Ziv Shoshani

So naturally, given the sizable order intake, we had to place order to increase capacity equipment as well as hiring more people. In addition to that, we are setting, I would say, more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support more manufacturing site (sic) [ sites ] to support the higher capacity. So it takes time given the learning curve and the complexity of the product that we are producing. But the expectation is that in the -- I would say that in the coming quarter, we are going to reduce the lead time and increase our capacity as we expand also in our other manufacturing facility.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

We'll move next to John Franzreb at Sidoti.

John Franzreb

Ziv, I'm kind of curious, given how much AI infrastructure markets are driving demand, do you have a sense of how much that is of the revenue and/or booking profile?

Ziv Shoshani

We didn't provide any specific information regarding the Sensor segment. We can -- we did identify that all the -- our semiconductor business, all our fiber optics data and potentially also our humanoid business, they are all AI related. I think that at this point in time, I could estimate that -- and by the way, in addition to that, I would like to state that we have also a very solid demand avionics, military and space business. But if we speak about specifically about the AI, I would say that at this point in time, a rough estimation would be around 20% to 30%.

John Franzreb

20% to 30% of the Sensors segment or company-wide?

Ziv Shoshani

No, no, no. Of the Sensors segment.

John Franzreb

And in the second quarter, there was a KELK order that was deferred at the time we say in the second half of the year. Was that order fulfilled in the third quarter? Or is there still some remaining that's going into the fourth?

Ziv Shoshani

So you are correct. Some of the order has been fulfilled, but the main part will be delivered in Q4 this quarter.

John Franzreb

That's good to hear. And one, I guess, last question. How are the -- just a point of clarity for me, how are the bookings impacted by the tariff refunds? I understand how the revenue works, but it looks like there's a footnote in the presentation about bookings.

William Clancy

Yes, John. So the way we do our calculation, it's always the opening backlog and then plus order less -- I mean -- so basically, we back into the order numbers just because the backlog is fixed. So it's just a mathematical calculation.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we have no further questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to Steve for closing remarks.

Steve Cantor

Before concluding, I want to note that we will be participating in the ROTH Conference this month and the Sidoti Conference in December, and you can contact me for more information about those. We look forward to updating you next quarter. Thank you all, and have a great day.

Operator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.