루이지애나 퍼시픽(LPX) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표회: 사상 최대 사이딩 매출, EBITDA 전망치 2억 7,000만~2억 8,000만 달러

핵심 요약

• 루이지애나 패시픽(NYSE: LPX)의 2026년 3분기 순매출은 6억 9,100만 달러로 전년 동기 대비 2,800만 달러 증가한 반면, 총 EBITDA는 8,200만 달러로 보합세를 보였다.
• 사이딩 부문은 분기 최고 순매출인 4억 7,300만 달러를 기록했으며, 이는 출하량 2% 증가 및 평균 판매 가격 5% 상승에 힘입은 결과다. 부문 EBITDA는 1억 1,900만 달러에 달했으며, 조정 EBITDA 마진은 25%를 상회했다.
• 원자재 및 운송비 인플레이션으로 사이딩 EBITDA가 총 1,800만 달러 전년 동기 대비 감소했으며, 이는 주로 MDI 수지, 페이퍼 오버레이, 연료 및 트럭 운송비 상승 때문이다.
• OSB 매출은 1억 8,000만 달러였으나, 해당 부문은 2,400만 달러의 EBITDA 손실을 기록했다. 출하량은 7% 증가했으나 평균 판매 가격 하락, 불리한 제품 조합, 인플레이션이 실적에 부담을 주었다.
• 경영진은 연간 LP EBITDA를 2억 7,000만 달러에서 2억 8,000만 달러로 전망하고 있다. 연간 사이딩 매출은 16억 6,000만 달러에서 16억 7,000만 달러로 예상되며, EBITDA는 4억 1,500만 달러에서 4억 2,500만 달러로 추정된다.
• LP는 사이딩 유통 네트워크를 확장하고 단순화하고 있다. 경영진은 커진 지리적 도달 범위와 유통업체와의 협업 강화가 스마트사이드(SmartSide)의 장기적인 점유율 확대에 기여할 것으로 기대하고 있다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

사이딩

사이딩 성장은 단독주택 착공 건수가 2% 감소했음에도 불구하고 재개되었습니다. 가격 인상으로 2,300만 달러가 매출과 EBITDA에 기여했으며, 출하량 증가로 800만 달러의 매출과 400만 달러의 EBITDA가 추가되었습니다.

ExpertFinish는 사이딩 출하량의 10% 및 사이딩 매출의 16%를 차지했습니다. 해당 분기 동안 출하량은 소폭 감소했으나, 경영진은 유통업체가 보고한 ExpertFinish 실판매량이 전년 동기 대비 8% 및 2026년 2분기 대비 13% 증가했다고 밝혔습니다.

인플레이션이 계속해서 주요 제약 요인으로 작용했습니다. 원자재 비용 상승으로 사이딩 EBITDA가 1,200만 달러 감소한 반면, 운반비로 인해 600만 달러의 추가 역풍이 발생했습니다. 정기 유지보수 및 정지 기간 동안의 재고 감소로 인해 900만 달러의 기타 비용이 추가되었습니다.

LP는 100개 이상의 거점을 아우르는 광범위한 유통 모델로 전환하고 있습니다 및 약 12~13곳의 파트너. 단계적 재고 전환에는 2~3분기가 소요될 것으로 예상되며, 경영진은 최종 소비 수요를 반영하지 않는 일회성 출하량 급증을 방지하고자 합니다.

OSB

OSB 출하량은 7% 증가했으나, 평균 판매 가격이 전년 수준을 소폭 하회했습니다. 가격 하락으로 매출과 EBITDA가 각각 700만 달러 줄었고, 원자재 및 인건비 인플레이션으로 EBITDA가 추가로 700만 달러 감소했습니다.

1,400만 달러 규모의 우호적인 재고 평가 조정과 300만 달러 규모의 판관비 및 기타 비용 절감이 이러한 부담을 일부 상쇄했습니다. OSB 시장 가격 상승이 3분기 말에 발생했고 LP는 통상 시차를 두고 가격 변동을 반영하기 때문에 경영진은 4분기에 실현 가격이 개선될 것으로 기대하고 있습니다.

LP는 텍사스주 재스퍼 공장의 가동을 무기한 감축하고 퀘벡주 마니와키 공장의 가동을 일시 중단할 예정입니다. 경영진은 이번 조치가 침체된 시장 수요에 대한 대응이자 생산능력 관리 전략의 일환이라고 설명했습니다. 마니와키 공장에 대한 결정이 향후 사이딩 생산 거점으로서의 잠재력을 변경하는 것은 아닙니다.

경영진 가이던스

LP는 2026년과 유사한 제품 믹스 기준 약 3.5%~4%의 순혜택이 예상되는 사이딩 가격 인상을 발표했습니다. 경영진은 2027년 1월 초중순부터 신규 가격이 적용된 출하가 시작될 것으로 예상하며, 대부분의 원자재 시나리오에서 사이딩 부문의 가격 대비 원가가 긍정적(price-cost positive)으로 유지될 것으로 보고 있습니다.

회사는 2027년 공식 가이던스를 제공하지 않았습니다. 경영진은 역사적으로 스마트사이드 물량이 단독주택 착공 건수 성장률을 약 4%포인트 상회했다고 언급했으나, 이는 미래 전망 수식이 아닌 과거의 맥락 정보일 뿐임을 강조했습니다.

리스크 및 주요 관찰 항목

• 원자재 인플레이션:MDI 수지, 페이퍼 오버레이 및 기타 석유화학 연계 원자재 가격은 유가 향방에 여전히 민감하게 반응하고 있습니다.
• 물류비 압박:디젤 가격 상승, 화물 운임 인상 및 트럭 수송 능력 부족이 지속적으로 비용을 끌어올리고 있습니다.
• 주택 수요:경영진은 주택 구입 능력 저하, 단독주택 착공 감소, 주택 건설업체의 마진 압박을 지속적인 과제로 꼽았습니다.
• 유통 체계 전환:재고 이동과 유통업체 신규 등록 과정으로 인해 향후 2~3분기 동안 단기적인 출하량 변동성이 발생할 수 있습니다.
• OSB 수요 및 제품 믹스:업계 전반의 수요 감소로 공장 감산이 불가피했던 반면, 고객들은 프리미엄이 높은 구조용 솔루션 제품보다 일반 범용 OSB를 다소 선호하는 경향을 보였습니다.
• 계절성 및 보수 작업:겨울철 수요 패턴과 계획된 가동 중단이 4분기 사이딩 사업부의 수익성에 부담을 줄 것으로 예상됩니다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

• 사이딩 수요의 질적 측면:경영진은 4분기 성장이 단순한 유통업체의 재고 축적 때문이 아니라고 밝혔습니다. 3분기 유통 채널 재고는 감소한 반면, 최종 판매와 주문 수주는 최종 사용자 수요가 지속되고 있음을 나타냈습니다.
• 유통망 확대 효과:LP는 지리적 커버리지 확대, 스마트사이드(SmartSide)의 독점적 파트너십 강화, 유통업체와 하류 판매 전략 간의 긴밀한 협력을 기대하고 있습니다. 전환 비용은 최소화될 것으로 예상됩니다.
• 2027년 가격 정책:발표된 가격 인상은 인플레이션을 상쇄하기 위한 것으로, 회사는 1월 초중순부터 인상된 가격이 반영될 것으로 전망하고 있습니다.
• 건설사 파트너십:LP는 자사의 확장된 제품 포트폴리오가 대형 건설사 및 모듈러 주택 제조업체의 제안요청서(RFP)에서 호응을 얻고 있다고 밝혔습니다. 경영진은 30~60일 이내에 추가 정보가 확인될 것으로 예상합니다.
• 대체 외장재 수요:경영진은 일부 시장에서 노동집약적이고 비싼 벽돌을 피하는 방향으로 선호도가 점진적으로 변화하면서 스마트사이드의 전체 잠재시장(TAM)이 확대될 가능성이 있다고 보고 있습니다. 다만 단기적으로 이것이 주요 성장 동력이 되지는 않을 것으로 보고 있습니다.
• OSB 생산능력:LP는 재스퍼 및 마니와키 공장 관련 조치가 2027년 수요 환경 둔화 가능성에 대비해 OSB 생산 네트워크를 더 유연하게 구축하는 데 도움이 된다고 판단하고 있습니다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Q3 2026 Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Bob Hopkins, Treasurer of Louisiana Pacific Corporation. Please go ahead.

Bob Hopkins

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to discuss LP Building Solutions results for the third quarter of 2026 and our updated guidance for the remainder of the year. My name is Bob Hopkins, LP's Treasurer. Joining me this morning are Jason Ringblom, our Chief Executive Officer; and Aaron Howald, our Chief Financial Officer.

Following these prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take a round of questions. During today's call, we will reference a presentation that is available on LP's Investor Relations website at investor.lpcorp.com. Our 8-K filing, earnings press release and other materials are also available there. And as always, today's discussion and materials contain forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial metrics as described on Slides 2 and 3 of the earnings presentation.

The appendix of that presentation also contains reconciliations that are further supplemented by this morning's 8-K filing. Rather than reading those materials, I will incorporate them here by reference. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jason.

Jason Ringblom

Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to LP's Third Quarter Earnings Call. We're glad you could join us. As expected, LP Siding business returned to year-over-year growth in the third quarter. Siding volumes grew by 2%, and net sales grew by 7%, setting a new record for Siding net sales and exceeding the high end of our guided range. We delivered that growth despite a 2% decline in single-family housing starts, continuing our long-term track record of gaining share in the markets we serve.

Higher Siding volumes and prices generated modest EBITDA growth in Siding despite a very challenging backdrop, particularly for raw materials and freight inflation. In OSB, we continue to execute our strategy and manage our capacity with discipline, evidenced by our utilization rate of 81% in the quarter and announced curtailments at our [ Jasper ] and Milwaukee mills.

Slide 5 of the presentation highlights our financial performance for the quarter. LP generated $691 million in net sales an increase of $28 million compared to the third quarter of last year, driven by Siding growth. Total EBITDA was $82 million, which was flat with the prior year despite significant inflationary headwinds. LP generated $112 million in operating cash flow in the quarter, of which we invested $56 million in capital expenditures to maintain our assets and support growing demand for SmartSide and ExpertFinish.

And then finally, we returned $21 million to shareholders through dividends. Before I turn the call over to Aaron for a closer look at LP's financial results, I'd like to highlight a few of the accomplishments and recognition our teams earned during the quarter.

Safety is a core value at LP, and I'm extremely proud to share that LP earned the [ Engineered Wood Association's Safest Company Award ] for the fourth consecutive year. We continued this momentum for safety in the third quarter, achieving a total incident rate or TIR of just 0.4. I am particularly proud to say that LP's expert finished facility in Roaring River, North Carolina, achieved the incredible milestone of 1 million work hours without a recordable incident. Safety is foundational to our culture here at LP, and these achievements are the result of our focus on continuous improvement with the ultimate goal of creating an injury-free workplace each and every day.

With that said, our people are fundamental to LP's success. Great people strengthen our culture, drive innovation and help us deliver strong results. That's why we work hard to attract and retain exceptional talent and make LP a place where we can all be our best. During the third quarter, we were proud to be recognized by Newsweek as one of America's greatest companies. The recognition considers financial performance, innovation, workplace culture and environmental sustainability.

One of our most important achievements this quarter is just beginning to show its impact and we believe it positions LP exceptionally well for continued growth and share gains. As we announced in early October, we have significantly transformed LP Siding distribution network, expanding our market presence product support and geographic reach.

Under the new model, specialty building products will provide expanded nationwide coverage for SmartSide and ExpertFinish, serving professional dealers, one-step distributors and retail customers complemented by distribution partners in designated regional markets. Those include existing LP partners, BlueLinx, [ Coastal Forest ] products, J.M. Thomas Forest products, Minot Builders Supply, Sherwood Lumber Supply, Taiga Building Products, Wausau Supply Company, Weyerhaeuser and [ WS Building Materials], many of whom will grow their coverage of SmartSide.

We are also pleased to welcome new partners Forest Products Supply Company in Palmer Donavin. These distributors will carry the full line of LP SmartSide products, including ExpertFinish in the Naturals collection and transition away from competing Siding products. Our SmartSide distribution partners share LP's focus on long-term growth, customer service and market development. They bring dedicated sales teams, sophisticated logistics networks and a shared passion for providing installers and homeowners with the best siding and trim products in the industry.

And finally, further demonstrating our Siding growth and share gains with America's largest homebuilders [ Taylor Morrison ] named LP as new Strategic Vendor of the Year. We're proud of this recognition and most importantly, proud of our growing partnership with [ Taylor Morrison ] and their trust in LP SmartSide and OSB products.

After a difficult start to the year, SmartSide is back on a growth footing, and we intend to stay here. As Aaron will detail in a few minutes, we anticipate year-over-year growth in siding volume and revenue in the fourth quarter and while we are not providing guidance for 2027 yet, we believe we are set up for a strong start to the year in all siding market segments.

Our return to growth reflects the strength of our strategic relationships with distributors and homebuilders, the outstanding quality, durability and aesthetics of SmartSide Siding and Trim and most importantly, the hard work of our incredible team. To everyone across LP who helps us execute our Siding growth strategy, thank you. I'm grateful for all that you do and very excited about what we can achieve together. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Aaron for a more detailed review of LP's financial results for the quarter and our updated Q4 and full year outlook.

Aaron Howald

Thanks, Jason, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Slide 7 of the presentation shows Siding results for the third quarter in more detail. Average selling prices were up 5% from prior year, adding $23 million in revenue and EBITDA, with the large rebate and mix benefits from earlier in the year, normalizing as expected, higher prices in Q3 were driven primarily by list price increases. As Jason mentioned, Siding sales volume increased by 2% overall, while ExpertFinish volume dipped slightly. ExpertFinish represented 10% of Siding volume and 16% of Siding revenue in the quarter. Higher volumes added $8 million of revenue and $4 million of EBITDA consistent with our historical incremental EBITDA margins for volume.

As you are all aware, inflation remains a significant headwind for LP and for our customers. Many of LP's raw materials have petrochemical inputs and higher diesel prices impact inbound and outbound freight. The year-over-year increase in raw materials resulted in a negative $12 million EBITDA impact for Siding in the third quarter, primarily driven by MDI resin and paper overlay.

Freight costs added a further $6 million of negative impact due to higher fuel prices as well as higher freight rates as trucking capacity remains tight. Raw material costs were modestly higher than we expected on our last call, but more or less in line with the sensitivities we have provided as crude oil prices increased.

Despite these inflationary pressures, siding remained modestly price/cost positive in the third quarter. The remaining $9 million in other costs primarily reflect the impacts of planned maintenance projects and falling inventory levels during those outages. Record net sales of $473 million exceeded the top end of our guidance range, as Jason mentioned. However, higher-than-expected raw material costs kept EBITDA just under the top of our range at $119 million. The resulting adjusted EBITDA margin for Siding was just over 25%.

Turning to OSB, results are summarized on Slide 8. While average OSB selling prices climbed in September, they averaged modestly lower than prior year, resulting in a $7 million year-over-year decline in both revenue and EBITDA. Given the timing of price increases late in the quarter and LP's typical lag as prices move, we expect higher realizations in Q4. OSB volumes increased by 7% in the quarter but unfavorable mix effects reduced EBITDA by $1 million. Raw material and labor inflation remained a challenge in OSB as well, resulting in a negative $7 million EBITDA impact year-over-year.

Finally, let me spend a minute unpacking the $17 million of other EBITDA benefits. $14 million of this is as a result of inventory valuation adjustments. Higher prices at quarter end resulted in favorable lower of cost or market adjustments to our inventory. The EBITDA benefit of those adjustments was magnified by the fact that prices and inventory valuations moved in the opposite direction in the third quarter of last year.

Operational excellence and cost discipline contributed another $3 million in savings for SG&A and other items. The net effect of all these factors resulted in revenue of $180 million and an EBITDA loss of $24 million both slightly above prior year. As you know, LP announced that we would indefinitely curtail our mill in Jasper, Texas and temporarily idle our mill in Maniwaki, Quebec in the fourth quarter.

These capacity reductions were an unfortunate but necessary response to ongoing softness in market demand, and they are consistent with our long-standing capacity management strategy. This was in no way a reflection on the excellent teams at those mills, and we are grateful for all their contributions to LP. We're working to minimize the impacts of these curtailments on our team members, and we look forward to restarting both mills when market conditions support doing so.

Turning to cash flow on Slide 9. Reductions in working capital contributed $48 million in cash in the quarter, primarily from lower inventories of logs and finished goods. This is typical of LP's seasonal working capital cycle. As Jason said, we generated $112 million in operating cash flow, spent $56 million for capital expenditures, returned $21 million to shareholders through dividends and ended the quarter with $265 million in cash. That left LP with just over $1 billion in liquidity at quarter end, including our undrawn revolving credit facility. This brings me to our updated guidance for fourth quarter and the full year.

As Jason said, we expect modest volume growth to continue for Siding in the fourth quarter. I should stress that this growth is not merely the result of inventory load-in, in support of our enhanced distribution network. On the contrary, sell-through rates were robust in Q3 as channel inventory contracted, and we believe our order intake in the fourth quarter is reflective of true end-use demand.

Roughly 3% growth will be mostly price with some negative mix effect, and we anticipate revenue in the range of $390 million to $400 million. We expect inflationary pressures to continue in both businesses and are planning seasonal maintenance outages, both of which present cost headwinds. As a result, we expect Siding EBITDA in the range of $80 million to $90 million for the fourth quarter.

We are increasing the lower bounds of the ranges for anticipated revenue and EBITDA for the full year. We now expect Siding revenue for the year to land between $1.66 billion and $1.67 billion, down about 1% compared to prior year with higher prices almost completely offsetting lower volumes. We expect full year siting EBITDA to land between $415 million and $425 million.

For OSB, we will offer our usual algorithmic guidance predicated on prices remaining flat at current levels. Assuming prices remain flat through year-end, we would expect the OSB segment to lose about $35 million in EBITDA in the fourth quarter as most of the favorable other impact in Q3 is nonrecurring. Full year EBITDA outlook has improved to about a $95 million loss with lower volumes and higher input costs, partially offsetting increased selling prices.

I should mention as a housekeeping note relative to OSB guidance that the volume and price sensitivities have been updated to reflect anticipated Q4 sales volumes and raw material costs. We now anticipate full year EBITDA for LP of between $270 million and $280 million, reflecting both the Q3 results and recent improvements in Siding and OSB outlook compared to prior guidance.

In conclusion, LP's team members are effectively executing our strategy against what remains a very challenging backdrop for housing affordability and raw material inflation and I want to echo Jason's comments and add my appreciation for everyone at LP who contributes to our progress and helps grow our culture of safety, sustainability and operational and commercial excellence. And with that, we will be happy to take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

질의응답

Matthew Bouley

I'll start out with a question here on kind of the volume outlook and the new distribution and all that. I think I heard you say that the fourth quarter guidance is not due to sort of an extra inventory load in. Maybe you can kind of separate out the sort of sell-through trends to date -- and any kind of quantification around that load in. And I guess, along those lines, maybe if you could just kind of expand how your geographic coverage more broadly has changed as a result of these distribution changes?

Jason Ringblom

Thanks, Matt. I'll touch on that kind of broadly from a distribution perspective. So the overarching goal as we kind of approach this initiative was to really simplify and expand our distribution network with partners that really desire to be exclusive to LP SmartSide as their hard cladding solution. And as we go -- as we went through this process, we were very fortunate to have multiple options and ultimately are very pleased with where we landed.

We do expect the changes to result in a distribution network that is fully aligned to our commercial strategy, which we believe has tremendous potential to enhance our focus, to enhance collaboration and then ultimately, sales execution over the long haul. As it relates to the load in, that is something that is in process right now. We are executing a phased-in approach.

So really to minimize the impact of a onetime event -- so this will be over the next, I would say, 2 quarters, maybe even 3. So we're working with our current and new distribution partners to do that the best way we know possible, knowing that it's more of an art than a science. The first part of your question was around sell-through rates, I believe, maybe I'll touch on ExpertFinish first.

Yes, volumes right now for the year are anticipated. Our shipments are anticipated to be flat year-over-year. But you may recall that we were on a managed order file to begin the year. And based on our history being on a managed order file, it does take some time to change market perceptions on supply. So we went through that.

But our distributors are reporting sell-through rates that are positive year-over-year versus prior year quarter were up 8%. And then when you compare Q3 to Q2 of this year, we're actually up 13%. So seeing a nice trend there. And then on the prime side, we're also seeing sell-through rates that are comparable to prior year, which is encouraging, just given the softness in the market.

Matthew Bouley

Got it. Okay. Well, in addressing my, I guess, multipart question there. Secondly, sticking with Siding. Given the inflationary backdrop and presumably, I guess, kind of choppy end market demand, in my words, how are you thinking about pricing into early 2027? And kind of what do you think you need to do from here in order to offset the level of inflation we're seeing out there?

Jason Ringblom

Yes. So that's something, obviously, we've kept an eye on for the majority of the year. We've been fortunate to be price/cost positive up until the beginning of Q4. Obviously, that's turning around on us. So all of that was factored into the price increase that we announced in early October. As of today, we're anticipating netting roughly 3.5% to 4% on a similar mix to 2026 with Prime SmartSide being a hair higher than what we're anticipating on the ExpertFinish side. And in terms of when we expect to realize those price changes right now, based on our order file, we're expecting shipments to go out with the new prices sometime in early to mid-January.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora

Just a follow-up to Matt's question. Do you have any sort of prebuy built into Q4? In the past, it used to be like 110% of what they typically buy. Is that sort of still the case in Q4 volumes?

Jason Ringblom

Ketan, thanks for the question. What I would say about Q4 of this year, it's a little bit more complex than prior years because obviously, we're working through the distribution changes. So we're working with those partners that will be exiting us throughout the quarter to manage their inventories down, get as much of that transferred to our new distributors.

And then looking at historical demand by region to manage the load-in appropriately with our new partners. So it is a little bit more complex or dynamic relative to what we've done in recent years, but we're keeping a very close eye on those channel inventories and working with current and existing distributors as we go through the process.

Ketan Mamtora

Understood. Okay. And then just as a follow-up, I'm recognizing that you are not giving 2027 guidance at the moment. But if you just look at -- turn to 2027, with the housing backdrop and the interest rates where they are, can you give us some framework in terms of how you think about kind of volumes next year it starts or, let's say, down mid-single digits. Is there a way for us to think about sort of outperforming the broad housing market?

Aaron Howald

Yes, I'll take that one, Ketan. We're -- as you said, we are not giving guidance for 2027 yet. But on the last call, we did update everyone on a multiyear historical performance for SmartSide for both volume and revenue relative to single-family starts. Admittedly not a perfect proxy for our business given the diverse markets that we serve, but we've pretty consistently outperformed those markets by, call it, about 4% on volume, quite a bit more on price, given both mix and our pricing power while nobody knows what starts are going to be in 2027 yet. So that is not a hint at an algorithmic guidance but it's merely a reflection of our historical performance, and that's what gives us confidence in the product and our teams to deliver.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Philip Ng with Jefferies.

Philip Ng

You talked about this new partnership with Taylor Morrison. Can you explain what that exactly entails? Is it deciding OSB, a bundling effort? And perhaps any early look in terms of the contribution and potential ramp for next year?

Jason Ringblom

Yes. Thanks, Philip. I'll touch on that briefly. So we've done business with Taylor Morrison for a number of years. And on prior calls, we've talked a fair amount about our enterprise programs and how we're really leveraging the breadth of our entire portfolio to position programs with builders of scale in a way that will allow us to get greater access to markets where we've historically been underpenetrated. So we worked closely with TM over the course of the past a year or so to structure a program that met their needs and ours and are just very pleased with the progress to date and really look forward to growing the partnership, again in those markets where it's beneficial for Taylor Morrison and LP over the long haul.

Philip Ng

Okay. Helpful. And then Jason, you provided some helpful insight in terms of your order book and visibility, it sounds generally pretty construction, particularly on siding. But clearly, more mortgage rates are at and builder sentiment deteriorating. How does that kind of put in -- how does that play into your outlook, what you're seeing? Have your customers talked about working down inventory? And then on the flip side, R&R is certainly a little more murky. Any color in terms of your contractors, your dealers, what they're saying on the R&R side of things as we kind of look out to '27?

Jason Ringblom

Yes. So maybe I'll just touch on the first part of the question regarding the outlook and where channel inventories stand. So from a Prime SmartSide perspective, we are seeing channel inventories actually come down versus prior quarter and prior year. Same with ExpertFinish, but I would still classify them as seasonally normal, but again, trending a little bit lighter. This is obviously fluid with some of the changes going on with our distribution network, but we're going to manage that closely as we work through the load in.

In terms of looking ahead to next year, I mean, really what we're paying close attention to is the sell-through rates that our distributors report to us on a monthly basis. And that gives us confidence that the share gains that we're after in the segments we play in, off-site repair remodel and new construction are going to carry out into the New Year. We're doing our best to minimize all the noise that you mentioned earlier and just focus on the long term and driving share gains in all the market segments that we play in.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group. .

Brian Biros

This is actually Brian Biros on for Steven. First one, I guess, with your pricing moves in Siding and I guess the decisions you've made or not made in this kind of rising commodity input cost environment here. How do you assess the benefits in share capture at this point?

Aaron Howald

Yes, Brian, thanks. That's a good question. It is very hard to quantify what portion of our volume increases that we've seen in the third quarter and we expect in the fourth quarter to be the result of our decision not to take major price increases. It can't have hurt. When the premium move from vinyl to SmartSide, for example, collapses a little bit because of final price increases that can't hurt our share gain. It's very difficult for us to quantify.

Brian Biros

Understood. And I guess maybe similar related question, I guess, just with the new distribution deals you've announced, does this enable you to capture share in a maybe better way than before? Are you seeing any large builders or retailers kind of maybe more enticed to come to you for product?

I mean you talked a little bit about this in the prepared remarks and some of the other questions. But I guess just what are you looking for in the near and medium term, to I guess, measure the difference and ultimately, I guess, the benefits of these moves.

Jason Ringblom

Yes, I'll touch on that. I mean, I think the largest benefit is just going to come from an alignment perspective to our strategy. If you think about our new distribution footprint I mean it's over 100 locations, what, 12 or 13 different partners. If you add up the entire field sales organization, it's much larger than what we have here at LP.

So it's an opportunity really for us to drive or to create an extension of our sales force, getting our distribution partners more dialed into our downstream demand creation efforts and helping pull through new customers. So I think regardless of how you look at it, it's definitely going to be a net benefit as we think about the future.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

Michael Roxland

Jason, you mentioned a phased-in approach to the new distributors, which could take in the next 2 to 3 quarters. Can you talk about the cost impact as a result of that transition? And also what impact do you expect on Siding volumes?

Aaron Howald

Sorry, Mike, could you repeat the question? .

Michael Roxland

Sure. You mentioned in terms of this whole with specialty building products and all the other distributors you laid out there, a [ faded ] approach in terms of the transition, in terms of working through with your existing distributors working through inventories and then ultimately, obviously, working with new distributors, excuse me, over a certain period of time.

You said this transition from old to new could take about 2 to 3 quarters. Is there a cost impact at all in terms of making this transition? And is there anything from a signing volume perspective that we should be aware of as you make this transition as well?

Aaron Howald

Now as Jason said, we're trying to phase it in so that there isn't a large step function increase in volume. We -- we're trying to minimize that. In terms of a cost impact, should be very minimal. So no, I think that our goal, as we make this transition is to make it clear that the volumes that we ship are reflective of true end-use demand so that we don't -- so that we don't create more noise than is inherent in a process like this.

Michael Roxland

Got it. Okay, makes sense, Aaron. And then just one quick one. Maniwaki, did I hear you correctly say that's going to be indefinitely curtailed as well? Or is that a mill that you're taking down for 4Q and then it should restart next year?

Aaron Howald

It's the latter. [ Jasper ] is an indefinite curtailment. Maniwaki is temporarily idled, and this has no impact whatsoever in terms of the attractiveness of Maniwaki as a potential future siding location. Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jeff Stevenson with Loop Capital.

Jeffrey Stevenson

Can you talk about how shed sell-through demand in your Siding business trended after a slow start to the year what your expectations are for end market demand as we move through the remainder of 2026?

Jason Ringblom

Yes. Happy to elaborate on that, Jeff. When you look at our shed segment, obviously, we started the year a little rough, but we have rebounded nicely throughout the course of the second half of the year after our distribution partners, along with the shed fabricators and dealers went through a rebalancing act of their inventories. We do play close attention to sell-through rates at a dealer level. A lot of that is anecdotal feedback for us, but we are -- we do feel like the underlying segment as a whole is pretty flat year-over-year.

So our focus is really -- continues to be on growing our share of wallet with all the shed fabricators that are partners of LP. So that would be opportunities to grow in flooring and roofing and trim beyond the panel market share that we enjoy. So we do believe that we'll be back on a growth trend as we look to the future and are excited about the offsite segment as it relates to our Siding growth strategy.

Jeffrey Stevenson

Great. That's very helpful. And then second, do you believe that margin pressure that production builders continue to see from ongoing buyer incentives could slow the pace of channel share gains for alternative siding products such as SmartSide and [ Lugo ] traditional materials like vinyl as they look to reduce costs if we see another challenging year of single-family starts next year?

Aaron Howald

Yes. Maybe, Jeff, with vinyl producers taking midyear price increases, that has probably blunted that effect somewhat. But there's an offsetting potential benefit that we could see as well for the same reason. We're beginning to see more evidence of preference shift away from brick because it's so labor intensive and so expensive.

So I think that there are some ways that LP could actually benefit from that ongoing margin pressure as well. So we're watching it. And we've certainly seen margin pressure before and have historically outperformed the market. That's what we intend to continue to do.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

Susan Maklari

My first question is going back to pricing and siding. I think you mentioned that you expect about a 3.5% to 4% price benefit in '27 on top of mix. Can you talk a bit about what that [ assumes ] in terms of an inflationary backdrop? And how you're generally thinking about price costs as we look to the next couple of quarters and how much mix could benefit you?

Aaron Howald

Yes. So, I'll take that one. Price cost is going to be most challenged in the fourth quarter because raw materials continue to be a headwind and also because the impacts we've been talking about all year in terms of the disproportionately large positive price/mix effect we saw in the first quarter due to low shed volumes and some rebate adjustments and things like that.

All of those effects are normalizing a little bit into the back half of the year. But Jason mentioned our price increase for next year, I think under anything but very negative changes for raw materials next year, we should be healthily price/cost positive as we head into the next year

Susan Maklari

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And my second question is on the [indiscernible]. Think about the changes that you've announced on the production side there. Are there any implications from that to structural solutions? Can you just talk more broadly about the demand environment for Structural Solutions given the slowdown in single-family starts that we're seeing?

Aaron Howald

Sure. Well, as Jason said, we picked the mills that we idled were a portfolio decision rather than a mill-specific decision and Structural Solutions mix was a component of that decision. But what I would say is that what we have been seeing in an environment where homebuilder margins have been compressed, is there's been a bit of a preference shift to more commodity OSB products.

It's a little counterintuitive that absolutely price for Structural Solutions is lower, but the percent premium to step up from commodity is larger. And so that has explained the mix effect that you saw in the third quarter. But I would say our capacity decisions are much more related to overall demand than any kind of structural solutions dynamic.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sean Steuart with TD Cowen.

Sean Steuart

A couple of questions, and thanks for all the detail on the siding market context. But I'm going to start with CapEx, Aaron. You guys have lowered your 2026 guide, and it's on the maintenance side, the sustaining maintenance side. Should we view that as a deferral of maintenance projects? Or are there any read-throughs in terms of the structural shift in how you're thinking about that expense?

Aaron Howald

No real structural changes, largely deferrals. One of the benefits of a flexible program is that we can adjust as we have for the past couple of years to respond -- in response to market needs. But idling one facility indefinitely and another one for a short period of time, also lets us defer any of the projects that we had planned for those facilities. So no structural change to that, just pretty consistent with the way we try to be agile and flexible as we manage our CapEx. And then I should report no change in growth capital either. Sorry, to step on you there, Sean. We're full speed ahead on North branch.

Sean Steuart

Understood. And appreciating there's no urgency for whether it's Maniwaki or something else in terms of the next Siding conversion. But is there any -- and we'll get this, I imagine with the February guidance for '27, but is there any spending preliminary work on an exercising conversion that would be anticipated in the near term?

Aaron Howald

Not a significant amount. We'll get -- we'll get more detail when we get to the February call, as you said. What I want to say is that we -- as always, we want to have siding capacity available a little bit before we need it, hopefully, not too long before we need it.

But wherever the next capacity is added, it will be a longer duration project than our previous conversions have been. And so that spend will start a little bit earlier relative to new capacity coming online than previous projects. But we'll have a lot more detail for that as we head into next year and as we get closer to the project really being underway.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kurt Yinger with Davidson.

Kurt Yinger

I believe these winter months are typically pretty active in terms of RFPs from the big builders. So I just love to hear maybe some initial thoughts about the potential to kind of build off existing or adding to new kind of enterprise partnerships as we move into 2027?

Jason Ringblom

Thanks, Kurt. Yes, you're right. We're in the midst of RFP season now and have a handful of programs that we're working on with builders of scale, and that includes manufactured housing producers as well. What I would say, Kurt, is that these programs are progressing nicely. They look promising at this point. We're hopeful to have a little bit more to share at the next call.

But the main point I would say as it relates to our enterprise approach is that the bundling of our broad portfolio is truly resonating with these customers. They value the installation efficiencies, the durability, the quality that the SmartSide brand is known for. And then the other benefit is we are beginning to see evidence of a halo effect from the expanded positions with dealers and under-penetrated markets for SmartSide.

So we're very excited about the opportunity to build our business around those stocking dealer positions in new markets. So progressing nicely. You never know how these programs are going to unfold, but we should have more information over the course of the next 30 to 60 days.

Kurt Yinger

Okay. That's great. And Aaron, maybe just on OSB. I mean, I know there's a lot of moving pieces with the inventory adjustment and prices by region are up different amounts. But if we just look at the composite, I mean, it's seen a pretty big move the last couple of months. And just wondering if there are any other kind of big offsets in the Q4 guide related to the curtailments or maintenance that might be eating into that otherwise more favorable pricing dynamic?

Aaron Howald

No, I think we -- I think I mentioned most of them in the prepared remarks. Obviously, our volumes are going to be lower in the fourth quarter as a result of those curtailments. Also within price, we've seen a larger increase in thinner products than in thicker products, flooring prices haven't gone up as much, which is a little bit of a drag for us. And of course, raw materials continue to be a bit of a headwind. So no, I think we covered most of the big moving pieces in there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of [ Trevor Allinson ] of Wolfe Research.

Unknown Analyst

First one is on your 4Q Siding revenue guidance. It does seem like it's a bit below normal seasonal trends, but it sounds like from your commentary here that demand remains pretty healthy. So is that little bit lower than seasonal number, just driven by some of the channel inventory dynamics that you were talking about, those moving a bit lower? Is it just some conservatism reflecting a very uncertain macro? Any color you can provide there on the sequential trends.

Aaron Howald

Well, I mean, there's perhaps a little bit of conservatism in there, but it's within the normal range of seasonal falloff as we head into the winter months. Jason, I think, reinforced what we're seeing from a sell-through rate standpoint. And we've seen pretty consistent end-use demand, which is very encouraging.

One of the effects of trying to phase in the inventory as we are avoiding -- we're trying to avoid a large load in, which, of course, would show up as revenue. So we're trying to be cautious not just about levels of conservatism, but also we don't want to perturb the inventory channel any more than necessary as we transition to a new distribution network. So I really think it's the result of all of those factors, Trevor.

Unknown Executive

Yes, one point there. I mean we learned a hard less than Q4 of last year and ultimately, we're trying not to repeat that. So maybe a little bit of conservatism in there. But -- it's a tough balancing act given the distribution changes.

Unknown Analyst

Yes, makes sense. And then second question is just on your views on your own OSB capacity here and industry capacity. You made the Jasper announcement before rates jumped, but now you've since made Maniwaki announcement, how are you thinking about your own OSB capacity currently in light of housing starts potentially being down next year. And then some of my questions just kind of industry capacity if you think there needs to be any more moves there.

Jason Ringblom

Yes, I'll touch on that one. So if you think about our operating position leading up to the Jasper and Maniwaki curtailments, we were operating roughly in the 75-ish percent range from a network utilization standpoint. So we're doing everything we could to balance our capacity with LP customer demand while keeping a close eye on projections for the future.

And as the year went on and single-family starts retracted further we felt the need to really look at our network and optimize it to the extent we needed to, to position the business for a further down cycle in OSB. So we think we're set up nicely going into 2027 and are going through the committed volume process currently to [ shore ] up our contract strategy and figure out how much open market would we'll have to sell in 2027.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America.

George Staphos

Jumping on the line here late, at an industry conference. This may have been already asked. First of all, Aaron, congratulations and looking forward to working with you now and the role and congrats on the first conference call.

I would say, as regards to inflation, have you adjusted any of your sensitivity rates that you provided in the past relative to what we've seen in the last 9 months, 6 months, and for that matter, your operating stance and how that might have impacted your sensitivity to oil and the like. Relatedly, have you been working on ways to maybe engineer the product differently or just your supply chain so that maybe you don't have quite the same cost sensitivity with oil and the like? Or is it just about raising pricing? And then I had a follow-on.

Aaron Howald

Yes. Thanks, George. I'll tackle some of that. In terms of sensitivity to crude oil prices, no, those really haven't been adjusted. Crude oil prices themselves have been pretty volatile as everybody understands. I think the October average was up about $20 relative to the price point on our August call, and it's fallen about $5 or $6 since that -- in the past few days. But -- so that explains some of the headwinds that we've seen.

In terms of our guidance sensitivities, yes, we made some adjustments that we described in the prepared remarks and are detailed in the footnote on the guidance slide to reflect lower expected volumes in the fourth quarter because of the curtailment and also slightly lower margins than in the guide because of raw materials.

In terms of engineering the product, there are some opportunities there, and we've got excellent teams in our operations team that are looking at opportunities there. We use MDI resin exclusively in siding because it performs really, really well. And so we don't have too many opportunities there. And we certainly don't want to dial down the dosage rate or do rash things like that in the near term. But yes, I would say broadly, we're looking at opportunities, but there's not a whole lot we can do to offset most of the fluctuations in crude oil and similar inputs.

George Staphos

Okay. And then again, if this sort of came up in the dialogue, happy to look at the transcript. But if not, have you been getting any more commentary questions from your customers regarding Class A fire certification and whether you're at some point, you'll want to have that in the market sooner than later? Or is it really not a factor at this juncture?

Obviously, it's only going to be a big deal in certain regions if it's a deal at all. But how would you have us think about it? What are your customers asking about that? And when would you be ready perhaps with a Class A rated product?

Jason Ringblom

Yes. I would say there's been more of a focus on some of the [indiscernible] codes really because of some of the changes that were made in the state of Colorado. What I would say about our sales specifically is when you look at our sales so far out west year-to-date where [ WOI ] has been a factor for many years. We have yet to see any sort of change in sell-through rates relative to housing starts.

So it's something that we're keeping a close eye on. We're also doing everything we can to defend our position through educating local authorities on the value proposition of SmartSide, while in parallel to your point, working on NPD initiatives that would potentially open up new markets for LP in the future with a fire solution. But what I would say is these codes apply to a very small portion of the addressable market. It's something we're keeping a close eye on, but it hasn't affected our growth trajectory.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Baumgarten with Vertical Research.

Adam Baumgarten

Just, Aaron, back to your prior comment around price cost into next year. Just to clarify, you said that with the pricing you expect to execute and I'm assuming where inputs are today rolling that forward, you expect to be price cost positive for the year. Does that include the early part of the year when these price increases go effective?

Aaron Howald

Yes. Bill, as Jason said, we expect to be realizing those price increases early mid-January. So yes.

Adam Baumgarten

Okay. Got it. And then just on MDI, there's been some chatter out there that maybe prices are moderating a little bit sequentially with some of the force majeures coming off and capacity coming back up. Are you starting to see that or hear that from your suppliers as you move through the fourth quarter here?

Aaron Howald

We see the same news you do. And of course, we're optimistic about that. But we -- as we've discussed, on prior calls, our supply contracts tend to have lagging algorithmic adjustments in them. We don't pay spot for many of these raw materials in the short term. So if those trends continue and if [ MDI ] prices -- if MDI spot prices stay lower for some period of time, then we'll certainly see that in our purchase prices. So we're -- fingers crossed those trends continue.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

Mark Weintraub

So you've articulated that with the musical chairs going on in distribution, you feel it's a net positive. That's certainly how I've interpreted. But presumably, there are puts and takes. Can you sort of help us understand where the benefits are that are going to outweigh any possible negative?

Jason Ringblom

Yes. There's certainly puts and takes, Mike, sorry. But when you look at the magnitude of this change relative to what we've gone through in our past, it's not of the same scale. But we really were focused on finding exclusive partners to the SmartSide brand and we were able to achieve that, which is going to create that better alignment around our strategy and improve execution.

So even though there have been some musical chairs, we think the partners that we've aligned with are now going to be loyal to promoting the SmartSide brand and more dialed into our downstream demand creation strategy. So yes, there are some new partners that will have to get educated and onboarded no different than some of the changes we've made in the past, but that's a pretty quick process, and we believe we'll be off to the races to start 2027.

Aaron Howald

Yes. I think the churn is going to be near term. The negative is just the noise in the -- during the transition. Longer term, we've got greater geographic reach, greater exclusivity. It's a long-term positive.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew McKellar with RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew McKellar

Just following up on a comment you made about a preference shift away from brick given that labor intensity and cost. I think brick has seemingly been donating some share in new resi over the past few years. Could you give us any more detail on how material or abrupt that preference shift you're seeing is?

Jason Ringblom

That's a good question, Matt. It's not very abrupt. And so far, it's pretty small, but it's an encouraging trend. The brick is very expensive. And certainly, if you drive around Nashville, you see a lot of white brick homes. Nobody makes white bricks. So those homes have been painted. If you're going to paint a substrate, brick is an extremely expensive substrate to paint. So as those trends continue, we'll begin to see a little bit of an expansion in our addressable market. It will be geographically patchy.

There are some markets that are stronger or weaker for brick. It's not going to be a massive driver of growth for us, but it does expand the addressable market. It does increase the geographies and the markets where SmartSide can play and it reinforces the value proposition for our product being very durable and very efficient to install. So we're optimistic that, that trend will continue.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Bob Hopkins, Treasurer of Louisiana-Pacific Corporation for closing remarks.

Bob Hopkins

Thank you, operator. With no more questions, we'll end the call there. Thank you all for joining us, and look forward to speaking with you soon.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.